By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)
One of the most common misconceptions about folks involved in MTGFinance is that we are constantly manipulating the market and feeding players misinformation to help fuel achievement of our personal goals.
It has occurred to us at MTGPrice that though we dole out a good deal of advice, most of you ultimately have very little insight into when our writing team actually puts our money where our collective mouths are pointing. As such we’ve decided to run a weekly series breaking down what we’ve been buying and selling each week and why. These lists are meant to be both complete and transparent, leaving off only cards we bought without hope of profit, where appropriate. We’ll also try to provide some insight into our thinking behind the specs, and whether we are aiming for a short (<1 month), mid (1-12 month), or long (1 year+) term flip. Here’s what we were up to this week:
Buying Period: April 27 – May 3, 2015
Note: All cards NM unless otherwise noted. All sell prices are net of fees unless noted.
James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)
- 4x boxes of Modern Masters 2015 @ $225
- 2x Tarmogoyf (MM) @ $135
- 7x Steam Vents (RTR) @ $8.50/per
- 4x Nylea God of the Hunt @$3/per
- 1x Sidisi, Undead Vizier (foil) @ $8
- 1x Heliod, God of the Sun @ $2
- 1x Shu Yun, the Silent Tempest (foil pre-release) @ $4
- 2x Glittering Wish @ $5/per
- 1x Soulfire Grand Master (foil) @ $15
- 1x Anticipate (foil) @ $8.50
- 2x Siege Rhino @ $4.00
- 1x Siege Rhino (pre-release foil) @ $11
- 1x Dragonlord Dromoka (foil) @ $17
- 4x Heliod, God of the Sun @ $2.50
- 4x Gitaxian Probe @ $2.00
- 1x Time Warp @ $8
- 1x Grove of the Burnwillows @ $27
- 1x Dromoka’s Command (Russian) @ $2.50
- 1x Atarka’s Command (Russian) @ $2.50
- 1x Kolaghan’s Command (Russian) @ $2.50
- 1x Fate Reforged Booster Box (Russian) @ $199 USD ($125 cost)
- 8x Den Protector @ $4/per ($1.25 cost)
- 5x Dragonlord Ojutai @ $32/per ($6 cost)
- 3x Leyline of Sanctity @ $30.91 ($18 cost)
I’ve moved in even deeper on Modern Masters 2015 boxes as my sources all concur that the print run will be lower than expected and that many dealers will have trouble getting a hold of enough boxes to meet their local demand. Further proof comes from my receipt of offers from local dealers at prices far above what I’m buying for. You may be hearing that the print is bigger than last time, and it is, but a lot of that will be eaten up by the massive attendance at 3 GPs worldwide and a flurry of drafting at your local shop. I’m willing to bet that boxes are scarce by mid-June and the price tops $300 again. I’ll be happy to sell into the hype around the triple release GPs, but if I need to hold the boxes until Xmas season to yield my expected 30-40% returns, that’s fine too.
The Tarmogoyfs and the foil Siege Rhinos, along with the Steam Vents were all purchases of opportunity at GP Toronto, where some dealers from smaller towns surrounding Toronto were sporting remarkably low pricing on many staples. It felt like I could have gone very deep on value purchases at the event, and indeed several contacts reported dropping thousands in productive fashion. Selling into hype at a big tournament is always a good place to be, and I continued to unload Ojutai and Den Protector this week into amazing value.
Most of the rest of my buys were late night Ebay value purchases, where auctions were closing at prices below market value. We’re not quite at the season for summer pricing lows, but I’m starting to move in on the Theros gods, looking to acquire piles below $5 to out a few years later over $10.
Over on PucaTrade I continue to dump cards I expect are either peaking or likely to decline due to imminent reprint, with an eye to trading up into a $500-1000 card within a month or two of frequent trading. The latest dumps are Leyline of Sanctity out of my Abzan Tokens deck in Modern, based on the likely appearance of the card in Modern Masters 2015. I expect to get back into these below $20, so selling now at $30 in trade value is great.
Note: The rest of the guys were quiet this week. Look for updates this weekend.
- Blue devotion is far from dead. A U/G devotion deck with 32 creatures and 4 Collected Company finished 4th at the SCG Open in Portland, and the deck looked very solid on camera. As such I’m in no rush to dump Thassa and Master of Waves just yet, since we’re only another strong finish away from a possible move on these cards. The worst case is a hold waiting for a version in Modern, which is entirely possible if we wait for a few more great creatures to take the formula over the top.
- Sell Noble Hierarch asap and look to move back in under $20 later this summer. It’s being reprinted at rare in MM2 and that should send the price crashing as the triple GP inventory floods the web in early June.
- Bitterblossom has been confirmed for MM2 as well, and will likely bleed value since it’s not seeing heavy play at present.
So there you have it. Now what were you guys buying and selling this week and why?
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