Going Mad – Something’s Gotta Give

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By: Derek Madlem

We’ve theory crafted the hell out of this set already and said time and time again that there’s no good investment targets in this set. This is the tune we’ve all been playing since the Expeditions were spoiled, and it’s been said across pretty much every #mtginance article about Battle for Zendikar. But now that we’ve seen the entire spoiler there’s a grim truth to acknowledge: something has to be worth money.

Expeditions

The easiest place to pile on the bulk of the set’s value is on the altar of Expeditions. We don’t really have any reasonable idea where the value of expeditions will land, but it’s unlikely that we’re going to see $350 Marsh Flats and Blood Crypts any time soon so that means the rest of the cards in the set are going to need to soak up some of that value. But there’s just soooooo much garbage.

Hard Garbage

Anyone that’s been paying attention to the talking heads for very long will quickly point out that we all said pretty much the same thing about Dragons of Tarkir, but sure enough value materialized there. What’s the difference this time? Well sit down kid, I’ll tell you:

Hard garbage.

What’s hard garbage? Hard garbage is a term defining those rares that only exists in bulk boxes and have no competitive prospects. Hard garbage is a level of bulk rare that’s not debatable, these cards are barely playable even in limited. Like what?

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woodlandwanderer

Face it, nobody is going to run four colors to live the dream of a 6/6 Vigilance Trample creature. How many would run this in a three color deck to situationally power out a four mana 5/5?

prismarray

For this price, I would want the tapped creature to stay tapped as long as Prism Array remained on the battlefield. For all five colors of mana I want a little more bang for my buck than scry 3. Is there a world where we drop this in a three color deck to tap three creatures? Nope.

broodbutcher

This has been compared to Phyrexian Plaguelord. I got news for you, I’m a close personal friend of Phyrexian Plaguelord, and this is no Phyrexian Plaguelord. Is this card good in limited? Probably. Is this card playable in constructed? Have at it. I can think of better things to do with five mana in constructed, most of which already cost a dollar.

exertinfluence

Are you kidding me? Mind Control was five mana and basically unplayable in constructed and now you want to make it a five color spell with an upper limit? Get the ____ out. Seriously, out. This card is the prime example of hard garbage. Unless we somehow stumble upon a format full of two power indestructible creatures, this is not playable in any sense of the word. Hard garbage.

serpentinespike

“What if we took Cone of Flame and made it bigger?”
“Cone of Flame? You mean that uncommon that was only played in limited?”
“Yeah, except there’s a twist! We’ll make it colorless!”
“Brilliant!”
-overheard at Wizards

Seriously, who comes up with this crap? I know this set is supposed to be durdly, but for seven mana a rare removal spell should just straight exile three creatures. Requiring three targets is a downside, not an upside. Exhibit A:

Image

Remember when this card was good? Me neither.

Soft Garbage

Beyond the hard garbage, we have mountains of soft garbage. These cards are just clones of cards that we’ve seen before with a twist. What’s the twist? They’re worse. There’s a chance some of these see play, but their not going to hold any value because there are just better options in eternal formats.

From Beyond

Remember when Awakening Zone was all the rage? It was a cute way to get a creature into play for Polymorph, but that was the extent of it’s usefulness during its reign. Well, it’s back! But it costs more! Oh wait, this has a sweet tutor ability so you can search out your best eldrazi! Just think, you can tutor up a seven mana eldrazi and play it on turn six!

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Radiant Flames

Remember Firespout? How about Slagstorm? Anger of the Gods? What do these cards have in common? They’re all more reliable than Radiant Flames. Sure, there’s a corner case scenario in some format where you would like your Anger of the Gods to only deal two damage because that’s enough to kill all your opponent’s creatures but not enough to kill all those sweet three toughness creatures you’re playing…but that’s not a compelling reason to play a less reliable sweeper spell.

painfultruths

We’re all going to try it and we’re all going to pretend that the flexibility is better, but given the current state of Standard…we’re just going to play Abzan Charm instead, aren’t we? At three mana in one or two colors we get to draw two cards with zero drawback, if we’re going to play three colors we should get to draw three cards with no drawback. This card is symptomatic of everything wrong with Battle for Zendikar, it’s power level was pushed…in the wrong direction.

Beyond these examples, there are a number of cards that require cards in exile to have any effect. These cards are depowered to make the ingest mechanic matter in limited, but that ultimately means that these cards will be nigh-unplayable in constructed unless we see a whole new slew of delve cards that we can’t live without.

The Crossroads

Between the foundation of garbage and the beautiful vistas we’ll find on our Expeditions, there’s something; and something is still going to be worth…err, something. We’ll start with the obvious:

Tango lands

These are your best bet for holding some of the set’s non-catastrophic real estate. The tango lands are going to see heavy play at least until the fetch lands rotate (and beyond if we’re lucky and Zendikar fetches get reprinted). There is potential for these to soak up all the remaining value equity in the set, but there’s a couple other contenders to consider:

obnixilisreignited2Ob Nixilis is a solid card advantage engine that can protect himself with targeted removal. He can easily slot into an Abzan or Esper Dragons decks without much hassle and the absence of Hero’s Downfall is only going to make him that much more powerful contextually.

gideonallyofzendikar

Gideon has appeal. I personally don’t like this card as a constructed player, but there is a huge subsection of casual players that are getting ready to sleeve up allies like it’s going out of style…and that’s not to mention all the Gideon fans that would follow this guy right into Kozilek’s rectum if he asked them too.

kioramasterofthedepths1

I’m not excited about Kiora’s prospects in constructed, mostly because Sultai and Temur have been steaming turds for the bulk of Khans of Tarkir’s run in Standard thus far. There’s a chance that the format gets slowed down enough that Sultai is able to grind out the long games again, but the loss of Whip of Erebos is going to put a major hurting on that strategy. The good news for Kiroa is that she’s a two-color planeswalker and players identify strongly with their favorite guilds…especially those Simic kids.

partthewaterveil

Those Commander kids love their Time Walk effects and this card would be an auto-include in those decks even without the awaken portion of the text box. At Mythic rare, this is going to hold some value, though likely only around $5.

quarantinefield

Quarantine Field is a card that has potential to give us all headaches. This sort of utility effect at Mythic rare can leave us all cringing if we end up seeing optimal builds running four copies. While I’m not excited to pay four mana for an Oblivion Ring, getting two for six mana is pretty much average, and getting three for eight mana is just #value.

I’m placing my bets on this seeing a similar amount of play as Silence the Believers, a sporadic one-of.

shamblingvent

This brings us to the manlands. If you were around the last time these cards graced Standard, you’ll remember that their prices varied greatly with Lavaclaw Reaches on the low end and Raging Ravine and Celestial Colonnade splitting the upper tier. We can expect that some of these will be duds while others will excel. Shambling Vent feels like a loser to me.

On turn four you can activate this land to block a two power creature or you can cast a real threat. This is the weakest offensively of all the two color manlands printed to date. Even Lavaclaw had the ability to dump additional mana to accelerate the clock. Shambling Vent has no evasion and very little body to talk of.

lumberingfalls

Lumbering Falls has the dubious honor of being the best of the new manlands, but only because we’re only getting two with Battle for Zendikar. At three power, this at least matches the clock provided by Stirring Wildwood, a card that was playable but not amazing during it’s day. The big bonus for Lumbering Falls is hexproof; this allows the Falls to take the role of solid finisher for a control deck as it dodges board wipes and spot removal and, for now, larger manlands. Being a playable land is usually a good start when it comes to being worth money.

We’re also likely to see some of the rare and mythic eldrazi soaking up some of that value equity, kids love big stupid creatures.

The Crux of Fate

As a master of hyperbole, I can spot hyperbole. The thing to remember is that something HAS TO be worth money. Nearly all of us #mtgfinance writers have been saying that nothing in this set is going to be worth money outside of the Expeditions, and that’s probably not going to be the case. I think we’re better off saying that we’re not excited about any of these cards as investments.

We’re entering uncharted territory when it comes to #mtgfinance. We don’t know what the upper limit for “super users” is when it comes to pricing these lands. I really don’t think there are that many $500+ Scalding Tarn buyers out there waiting in the shadows to unload their cash in exchange for shiny cardboard, but we’ll know soon enough.

While many of you will be Battling for Zendikar at your local prerelease, I’m going to be checking eBay for that first wave of expedition lands…this is going to be the real starting point in the conversation about the financial value of BFZ. The completed listing prices will ultimately determine what everything else in the set is going to be worth and even lower value expeditions only leave room for just a small handful of cards to be of any value.


 

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12 thoughts on “Going Mad – Something’s Gotta Give”

  1. woodland wanderer is strong. been playtesting against some temur builds using the old sarkhan and its legit.

    still think it has legs, but agree with everything else.

    1. WW is strong sure, but he has no truly useful abilities like Polukranos or Surrak v.2 do.
      It is a beatstick at bulk price.

  2. Scalding Tarns are being pre-ordered on MCM for Euro 280,- sold. Minimum asking price on blue fetch Expeditions ranges from Euro 280 (Strands) to 380 (Scalding Tarn). So the price is actually rising against all odds.

  3. Madlem, I’m in love with the Zulaport Cutthroat. He takes the place of Blood Artist in what now is truly my Abzan Coco Humans deck with Falkenwrath in Modern and I don’t really care that he doesn’t trigger when my opponents’ creatures die…actually allows me to run Anafenza in the 3 drop slot. I don’t know if the deck will be competitive enough but I’m sure as heck gonna try to make it work. In any event, I’m probably punishing myself for posting this and I’ll end up paying more for presale foils, and he’ll probably be an FNM promo and in an event deck (considering he’s on the wrapper for BFZ packs if I saw correctly) but I have high hopes for him or at least I’m going to have a ton of fun with him, nantuko husk, Rally, Lili (which you also hate), Merciless Executioner, Fleshbag, etc in Standard and hopefully modern.

    Otherwise I still agree and think this set is poop. And the foil price of the Cutthroat is never going to amount to much as a gazillion boxes of BFZ will be opened. I think the Tango lands will prove worse than Temples in Standard but they are a necessary evil. They also have 0 eternal play (maybe a 2% chance in modern in some deck that has lots of basics cause they run Blood Moon). I am really unexcited to pay $7-10 a piece for crappy standard only lands. The WB man land will be a 1 or 2 of in Esper Dragons lists. In a vacuum it is underwhelming but your opponent can’t “Downfall” it and it’s just some late game value. If Sultai control becomes a viable deck then the Falls will be the most expensive non-mythic from this set…at around $4-5. It’s no Siege Rhino after all.

      1. I don’t see why that would be the case. Swiftspear is *still* $2.50. That may be our top-end expectation for an uncommon in a standard magic set, but it proves the value is sometimes there.

        Note that I’m not saying anything in this set is going to be on that level.

    1. Value-wise I agree with Derek, but yeah, I love the Cutthroat, too. I really liked the “Next Level Abzan” Modern build with Doomed Traveler, Blood Artist, Voice of Resurgence and Return to the Ranks and we may now have the tools to make a similar deck in Standard (Blisterpod, Zulaport Cutthroat, Rally the Ancestors). I also like Matthew Tickal’s Rally Deck and it may be even better now, as he doesn’t need to attack anymore. Return 2-3 Cutthroats and sac your whole board to the Husk… This is NOT far-fetched in my opinion. And I’ll be sure to play it at FNM!

  4. The manlands have low P/T because of Awaken. If any Awaken cards are constructed playable and are in a B/W or U/G deck, those things are game-swinging monsters. Now, I’m personally not too optimistic about them, but this is a factor everyone ought to consider.

    1. Awaken would actually make lumbering falls worse, it would be a creature all the time and only have hexproof upon activation… making it more vulnerable.

      You would almost always be better off awakening a non-manland

  5. Foil hedron matrix for the long con, is all i’m bothering with i think.

    But not for a few weeks, to let the floor get dug out as much as possible.

    Seems people are being racist towards the children of blue and green parents, because i am looking at kiora as Garruk Wildspeaker 1.2, one of the best PWs to date…..seems like some side action may be possible with her interactions with utopia sprawl, arbor elf, untappy any permanent UG guy, dryad arbor, simic karoo land, etc….

    Land + creature seems to give some great opportunities in modern, but hey, it seems safe to say BFZ is there to rein in the Creep Horsey for a season or so…..might be time to reassess those underappreciated bits of awesome sauce from the last blocks, which might represent the last bit of “Crept Cards” for a year or two.

    We may be getting exiled back to the Fallen Empire of our Homeland here!!!

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