Grinder Finance – The Big Finance 101


I read a lot of comments on a lot of articles, threads, facebook posts, etc.  I see a ton of the same questions asked.  In this article I hope to bullet point some frequently asked questions because I think the value of making this decision on your own vastly out weighs asking the general populace (that likely doesn’t have your best interests in mind).

Should I sell this?

Nobody knows enough information about this except you.  When I decide to sell cards I consider some criteria and hopefully by sharing it with you, you can make you own decisions about when to sell.

  • Am I playing this card?
    Just don’t sell stuff you play with.  That doesn’t make any sense.
  • Am I going to play this card in the near future?
    This might seem a little obvious but I’ve seen a lot of people make pretty poor decisions because they don’t consider this.  I was going to FNM with a friend last night who decided to sell his Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hungers because the store was paying a lot for them.  That usually makes a lot of sense until the conversation we had later that night where he says “I think I’m going to build the Eldrazi Ramp deck.”  The action of selling Ulamog is completely contradictory to his idea of building the deck that uses the card.  While I don’t think you should be holding cards you might play, if you’re actively considering a deck I don’t recommend selling the pieces before you make a decision.
  • How long can I afford to hold this?
    Ah yes the ole “hold that card, it will retain value forever” argument.  I see this most commonly with expeditions these days.  People ask if they should hold or sell these insanely expensive and rare lands.  The argument I hear from people is “hold it, it will always go up” and while that’s true, you have to consider how long you are willing to wait to get rid of it.  The price trajectory of expedition has been down as people are still opening Battle for Zendikar and Oath of the Gatewatch.  Unless there is a significant increase in demand, the increase in supply will continue to drag prices down.  Eye of Ugin’s expedition was $180 pre-order during pre-release weekend.  Today you can buy a copy for $110.  If you decided not to sell that weekend, how long do you think it will take to regain that $70?  How many years do you want to hold something?
  • Is there  a reason this card might go up soon?
    This is a pretty simple one.  Is there a Pro Tour, Grand Prix, or StarCity Open that is likely to feature the card I’m looking to sell?  Can you wait until it’s going on?  It’s very unlikely that cards will fall when they get featured on camera but it is extremely likely that they rise.  You want to see what could happen?  Look at the price of Auriok Champion.  It spiked during an SCG Open where it got a lot of camera time.

Should I buy this?

One again, this is another question that is better if you answer yourself rather than ask others for opinions.

  • When will I play the deck that needs this card?
    A lot of players get caught up in “but what if I need this?” syndrome.  I know that’s not a very scientific way of explaining but you know what I’m saying.  This point often comes up most when on the eve of a new set release.  How much do you need to have cards the day the set is released?  I don’t typically so I won’t rush to pre-order them or buy them on release day.  This time I did because I played in SCG Atlanta the weekend of the set release.  I was okay overpaying to make sure I had the best deck I could play that weekend.  The other time this question is important is for Modern.  Do you regularly play Modern?  Are you just building a deck to play the PPTQs during Modern season?  If you don’t play it a lot there isn’t a lot of reason to buy cards too ahead of time.  For this year I would probably look to finish my Modern deck during the release of Shadows over Innistrad.
  • Is there a high chance of reprint in the near future?
    This point is a little subjective.  Inquisition of Kozilek is a card that could have been reprinted.  This kept the price of Inquisition fairly low because people weren’t buying it aggressively because of a feared reprint.  In this case, I would defer to Warren Buffet, and buy when others are fearful.  If Inquisition had a similar loss to Thoughtseize the risk of reprint is less costly than a risk of no reprint.  Thoughtseize lost ~ 75% of it’s value (falling from roughly $100 to $25).  If Inquisition lost 75% of it’s $12 price tag it would be a loss of maybe $9-10.  If you waited until it was announced as not a reprint you were looking at spending an extra $13 as it doubled up in a few hours.  I’d rather over pay by $9 than have to pay twice as much if the card doesn’t get reprinted.  Zendikar fetchlands had similar reactions when it was announced they were not in  Battle for Zendikar.
  • How much are you willing to spend to play Magic?
    Maybe that’s a little vague but that’s basically the question I would ask myself.  How much are you willing to spend on Magic?  If you get to play Standard twice a week for 3 months, what is that worth to you?  If you Standard deck is worth $100 less after that time frame, is it worth the same to you as two video games?  You’re basically paying $100 for 24 tournaments.  That’s the average number of times you can play between set releases.  You definitely can’t go to 24 movies for $100.  Based loosely on current movie prices near me, it would cost $288 to see 24 movies.  Now let’s add another $200 for new cards every set.  You’re looking at probably $300 per set release to keep playing Magic.  Is that something you’re willing to do?  If it’s not, then don’t buy the cards.  You can definitely save a lot more by purchasing cards from the same block (the R/G Eldrazi ramp deck is a great investment now because it won’t largely change until it rotates in April of 2017) and playing a deck for a long time.
  • When did this card last change in price?
    Cards that are spiking or have recently seen price increases are much more likely to become cheaper in the coming days.  There is always a supply and demand curve that becomes sated eventually as people sell copies they don’t need anymore and players stop buying at the higher price.  Generally speaking I would recommend waiting until the Tuesday or Wednesday after a card sees a significant increase to purchase my copies if I need them.  It gives stores a chance to restock and a work day or two for TCGPlayer (or Magic Card Market) to resupply itself from people that weren’t paying attention over the weekend.  I like to refer to the post spike price as the “weekend” price because it almost never stays past then.  Unfortunately this is the price that often gets quoted to players as the new “going rate” and causes more panic purchases.

MTG Fast Finance: Episode 2

by Travis Allen (@wizardbumpin) & James Chillcott (@mtgcritic)

MTG Fast Finance is a new weekly podcast that tries to break down the flurry of financial activity in the world of Magic: The Gathering into a fast, fun and useful thirty minute format. Follow along with our seasoned hosts as they walk you through this week’s big price movements, their picks of the week, metagame analysis and a rotating weekly topic.

Show Notes: Jan 29th

Segment 1: Top Movers of the Week

Battle Screech (Judgement)
Start: $0.50
Finish: $3.00
Gain: +$2.50 (+500%)

Treasure Hunt (Magic Player Rewards)
Start: $1.25
Finish: $6.50
Gain: +$5.25 (+420%)

Boom/Bust (Planar Chaos)
Start: $2.50
Finish: $7.00
Gain: +$4.50 (+180%)

Palinchron (Urza’s Legacy)
Start: $11.00
Finish: $25.00
Gain: +$14.00 (+127%)

Flagstones of Trokair (Time Spiral)
Start: $13.00
Finish: $26.00
Gain: +$13.00 (+100%)

Seedborn Muse (Legions/9th/10th)
Start: $13.00
Finish: $26.00
Gain: +13.00 (+100%)

Ghost Quarter (Various)
Start: $1.00
Finish: $2.00
Gain: +1.00 (+100%)

Segment 2: Cards to Watch

James Picks:

  1. Harbinger of the Tides, ORI (Foil): $6.50 to $15+ (+130%, 6-12+ months)
  2. Goblin Piledriver, ORI (Foil): $5 to $10+ (+100%, 12+ months)
  3. Painful Truths, BFZ (Foil): $11 to $20+ (80%, 6-12+ months)

Disclosure: James is holding several Harbinger of the Tides foils.

Travis Picks:

  1. Delver of Secrets (Foil): $12 to $25 (110%, 0 – 12 months)
  2. Kozilek, the Great Distortion (Foil): $60 to $80 (33%, 6 – 12+ months)

Disclosure: Travis is not holding either of his picks at present.

Segment 3: Metagame Week in Review

The guys highlighted the successful showing for Merfolk as the 2nd, 3rd, and 12th at the  #SCG Modern Classic last weekend as a deck that keeps slipping under the radar despite doing well. Goblins was also noted as the winner of the Legacy Classic at the same tournament.

Segment 4: Topic of the Week: Is MTG Too Expensive?

The guys discussed the average cost to play Magic: The Gathering, and the many ways players have to mitigate those costs in their favor.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

PROTRADER: Hidden Upside in Preconstructed Products

Once the full spoiler of Oath of the Gatewatch was revealed, one noteworthy omission was immediately spotted: Inquisition of Kozilek. The card seemingly could have fit in perfectly with the set, storyline not withstanding. Yet Wizards of the Coast didn’t seem interested (or hadn’t planned) in keeping the Modern staple at its once-affordable price. As a result, we have yet another $20 Uncommon on our hands.

Inquisition

I guess if you don’t want to shell out $25 to play Inquisition, you could always play the more “budget-friendly” discard spell Thoughtseize. Five years ago, who would have ever expected trend reversal?

One More Purchase

In reaction to the spike, I rushed out and did my usual thorough search of the internet for copies at the “old price”. I found a mild degree of success – eight copies on Card Shark at roughly $12 each after shipping costs were factored in. One seller shipped, the other cancelled – I still managed to net a decent profit from the endeavor. Besides these two play sets, I did make one other reactionary purchase…

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Event Deck Buy

When I announced the purchase on Twitter (@sigfig8), my purchase decision was met with mixed reviews. Some denounced the buy, suggesting there was no room to profit from the Modern Event Deck. Others applauded the choice and even followed suit, arguing there was no cheaper way of obtaining the cards within the set. Naturally my primary goal was profit, but if the best I could do was buy all the singles in the Event Deck at a significantly discounted price, I wouldn’t be too unhappy.

Hindsight is 20-60?

 A few weeks later, I should be able to look at price trends and identify whether or not I made the right decision. However, I’d argue the data is still a bit unclear even now. I want to take a deep dive here, because this premise pops up over and over again – a card jumps in price and normal copies are bought out first before people consider possible preconstructed deck targets.

First, let’s take a look at the current price on the Modern Event Deck.

Recent sold Event Deck

Factoring in shipping, Modern Event Decks have been averaging a completed price of $91. This is a 20% increase versus what I paid for my sealed deck – a solid profit, right? Well, not really. By now I’m sure everyone is familiar with the profit erosion that takes place when selling sealed product on eBay. Take 10% off the top for eBay fees, 3% for PayPal’s cut, and another $8 or so for our United States Postal Service and you’re left with a net of around $71. Bye bye profits!

Next, I’ll take a look at buy list prices to see what sort of value can be driven from quickly selling the singles within this box, hassle free.

Buy lists

Using Star City Games’ buy prices, one could immediately ship key cards from the Modern Event Deck and net about $77. After bubble mailer and $2.60 for shipping, that’s a net of around $74 – with an entry price of $76, this represents a virtual break-even. I suppose if I wanted store credit, I could net myself about 20% in gains, but I would be left with a hundred bucks in store credit for my $76 cash purchase. This wouldn’t be the worst return, but I would be hard-pressed to convert that credit into pure cash gains.

The verdict: strictly from a profitability viewpoint, buying the Modern Event Deck has not paid off. Despite how the numbers fall, however, I’d argue there’s still a positive spin to this analysis.

Consider one’s decision to purchase the above singles now, on TCG Player. The total cost of buying LP or better copies of all the cards above is around $125. This price doesn’t even include all the cards you couldn’t buy list to Star City Games, nor the handy box and spindown die. Therefore, even at its current eBay price of $91, the Modern Event Deck still offers tremendous value over buying individual singles. This comparison makes an entry price in the $70’s extremely attractive, even though there’s no easy way to immediately profit off the delta.

With all this data in hand, I’ve come to the conclusion that buying the Modern Event Deck in the $70’s was a good decision. Even though there’s no immediate out for profit, there are two factors that tip the balance in the positive direction for me. First, if someone really wanted to, they could list all of the individual singles listed above on TCG Player and net a decent profit. Taking 15% off the top line to factor in fees and shipping still nets over $100. Granted, you may have a difficult time selling some of the smaller cards I listed. But even selling just the City of Brass, Elspeth, Inquisition of Kozilek, Isolated Chapel, Path to Exile, Relic of Progenitus, and Sword of Feast and Famine out of the deck would be enough to profit. Plus you’d have a bunch of smaller trade fodder left over.

Secondly and more importantly, the collection of cards one immediately acquires via the Modern Event deck offers up significant upside for the long term. Ghost Quarter and Relic of Progenitus will continue to be mainstays in Modern. Path to Exile is the premier removal spell of the format. Sword of Feast and Famine and Elspeth offer up terrific casual upside. The B/W lands have been gradually rising lately, and City of Brass will always be above bulk no matter how many times it gets reprinted. And last but not least, those two Inquisition of Kozileks carry more upside as long as they continue to dodge reprint.

The fact that the Modern Event Deck is a self-contained diversified investment in Modern should not be overlooked. This is perhaps the most attractive aspect of the deck itself. Besides, a few Godless Shrines and a couple other cards and you’ve got yourself a Tier 2 Modern deck to play in local events.

Extrapolation

 The Modern Event Deck is the most recent occurrence, but other card spikes have led to interesting discussion around preconstructed decks. When Birthing Pod became expensive, the Spiraling Doom Event Deck was an interesting target. The Dark Ascension Event Deck contained two copies of the once-$20 artifact, though it offered little else of value. The Jace vs. Vraska Duel Deck boasts a copy of Remand alongside some casual favorites in the form of two Planeswalkers, Night’s Whisper, and Future Sight. As Remand rebounds in price, this could become an interesting pick-up eventually. The Gleeful Flames Event Deck is also worth keeping an eye on, as it contains two copies of Modern staple Inkmoth Nexus. Unfortunately other than three Torpor Orb and a single Dismember, there’s not much else of interest in the list.

The New Phyrexia Event Deck Rot from Within is marginally more interesting, containing an Inkmoth Nexus, four Mutagenic Growth, a Green Sun’s Zenith, a Melira, and two Vines of Vastwood. Buying this deck gives you a fraction of the Modern Infect list, so you get some narrow exposure to a singular Modern strategy.

Rot from Within

Inkmoth

Plenty of other examples exist, but the overall premise remains the same. Sometimes a card will spike in price even though it’s in an older preconstructed deck. That respective preconstructed deck could have the potential to roar higher in price as a result. However, applying some of the rationale I present above, I believe one should remain highly cautious before committing funds to such a purchase. A quick glance at the above lists, and it is apparent there’s little else in those products besides the lone most valuable component. Therefore, you don’t get the added benefit of additional upside in nearly the same way as the Modern Event Deck.

Honestly, I wouldn’t consider any of these other options as worthwhile buys even in the face of a price spike.  These products are deriving their elevated value from a single card within, and there’s little other upside.  If Inkmoth jumps to $70, then of course buying an Event Deck with a single copy for under $70 is a no-brainer.  Just don’t get caught paying a premium for other bulk you’ll never gain upside from.

Wrapping It Up

 A few newer preconstructed deck lists offer up some attractive buys. My favorite option is the Magic Origins Clash Pack.

Clash Pack

The product, which sells for under $30 shipped, contains a number of valuable cards with plenty of long-term upside from Modern play. This includes a Windswept Heath, a Collected Company, a Siege Rhino, an Anafenza, and possibly a Dromoka’s Command. This is definitely a product you’ll want to keep in the back of your mind should we see a price jump in fetches or Collected Company any time in the future. As we’ve witnessed with Inquisition of Kozilek, players will be very swift in buying up copies of the card. But they often are slower to drive up prices on preconstructed products where the individual singles may be lingering.

If you’re interested in pursuing this strategy, please learn from the data I presented earlier. Just because a card in an Event Deck jumps doesn’t mean there’s ample profits to be made on that Event Deck. In reality, I can’t sell my Modern Event Deck for profit yet. In the same way, a double-up of Collected Company will not mean Origins Clash Packs will become immediately profitable. They may be a great way to acquire copies of Collected Company for use, because you’ll get some other good cards for “free” in the bargain. Just don’t expect to make significant bank with the endeavor. If you approach such investments as ways to obtain copies of diverse long-term cards, however, then you’ll be quite pleased with the results.

Sig’s Quick Hits

  • Speaking of Collected Company, did you know the Dragons of Tarkir rare is currently sold out at Star City Games with an $11 price tag? The instant is all over Standard, and it wouldn’t surprise me if one day we saw this spell fetching up Tarmogoyfs and the like in Modern. The fact this card isn’t rotating for a while yet adds additional upside, making the Clash Pack a very interesting long-term buy…for the singles, more-so than the potential profits.
  • Another card I mentioned earlier is also sold out at Star City Games: Inkmoth Nexus. The land is currently retailing for its highest price ever – $39.99! I would never have expected this card to achieve such lofty prices. Then again, I also never would have expected Wizards to ignore reprinting this land for so long. It will happen eventually. Until then, I guess this card goes to $50 retail next?
  • Despite having its price butchered from reprint in the Modern Event Deck, Sword of Feast and Famine really offers healthy upside. There are only three copies of the equipment in stock, and it’ll cost you $16 to get one from Star City. These swords are casual and Commander favorites, and without additional reprint they are only going to rise.

The Science of Magic: Is Modern Pay-to-Win?

Editor’s Note: Say a welcome to Ardon, who is bringing some much-needed hard data to answer some of the more difficult questions we face in the game. I think you’ll like this piece, so enjoy! – Corbin


One of the great appeals of Magic is that it tests our skills. But powerful cards cost more money, which leads to some awkward tension: did we win because we outmaneuvered our opponents, or did we simply outspend them? Are we becoming better players, or just more invested? The idea of “pay-to-win” is Magic’s biggest elephant creature token in the room. I’m a graduate student, so I thought, why not collect data? I found evidence that money influences results, but not in the way I expected. As a result, I think we should pay less attention to win percentage, and focus instead on consistency.

Continue reading The Science of Magic: Is Modern Pay-to-Win?

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY