Going Mad – More Expeditions

By: Derek  Madlem

We’ve known for a while that we were going to get 20 additional expeditions in Oath of the Gatewatch, then Mark Rosewater confirmed that they were, in fact, also going to be lands. The #mtgfinance hive mind quickly settled on the man lands and filter lands to be the most likely culprits. The “spoiling” of Mystic Gate seemed to confirm our suspicions, but then we were thrown for a bit of a loop and the dream scenario of ten random lands showing up  rather than the man lands came true.

Hierarchy

In my last article, I stated that the price for these lands doesn’t fall into a clear hierarchy like we saw with the fetches and shocks. We knew which were going to be the most expensive and every other would just fall in line behind it in a rough percentage based way. With this, that hierarchy is not as clear. Sure, we’re most excited about Wasteland at the top, and probably the least excited about Tectonic Edge, but then again…Tectonic Edge sees more tournament play than Wooded Bastion by a pretty significant margin.

So let’s take a look at each of these and figure out where they fit in with past printings financially.

Wasteland

wasteland

Wasteland exists in a really weird place on this list because it first appeared in a set that existed before foil printings but has since had three, count ’em three, promo foil printings. The prices breakdown of these is like this:

Original Art – $250
Second Printing – $205
2015 Judge foil – $275

The latest printing is still sitting a bit high because these haven’t been fully dispersed to judges yet, or maybe they have, who really understands the new judge foil program? I think it’s pretty reasonable to expect that $250 is going to be the ceiling on the Expeditions Wasteland because “OG” pimp trumps “new money” pimp, a phenomena we saw with the original Onslaught fetches vs. Expeditions.

I would expect the Expeditions copy to settle in the $200-225 range, and I also expect the 2015 Judge FOIL to fall into line around $200 with the second printing once they have been more widely dispersed.

Horizon Canopy

horizoncanopy

Horizon Canopy has the dubious honor of being expensive as all holy hell on the basis that it’s just kinda rare. It’s not widely played as more than a one of in Modern outside of Bogles and is pretty much only showing up as a singleton in Legacy Maverick and Death & Taxes decks.

Current foil copies of Horizon Canopy are hovering around $175 and I doubt this copy is going to supplant the original. I’d put the ceiling for this card at $150, but realistically that number is going to creep lower as this takes much of the upward pressure off of the original printing of Horizon Canopy printings. Giving players an alternative when it comes to foiling out decks is never good for the price of the original and Canopy typically showing up as a one of doesn’t help…Expeditions make a great choice for singleton “pimping”. I’d expect this to settle out around $100-125.

It’s likely that these two are the “top dogs” of the Oath expeditions, but where’s everything else fit in?

Ancient Tomb

ancient tomb

This is where things get tricky. Ancient Tomb shows up in variety of Legacy decks and in Vintage Workshop decks. There is a foil printing of Ancient Tomb but is has a major issue – it’s a From the Vault printing. This series has been loved and hated for providing foil versions of cards that were never printed in foil and then doing so with a finish that makes the cards somehow less desirable. The Expeditions Ancient Tomb gives Magic’s 1% something that they don’t have to be ashamed of.

The FTV Ancient Tomb is hovering around $16 currently, and there is little chance that this isn’t in the 4x to 5x range of that printing right? Even an Expeditions Smoldering Marsh is $45, so $60-75 seems like a very easy threshold to cross, but where does it stop? I’ll be honest, I am not well versed in the mindset of Vintage players when it comes to pimping their decks. How do they feel about Expeditions in general? It makes perfect sense to prefer the original printing of a fetch land to the latest incarnation, but what about in a heads up dual with FTV?

There is a world where these end up closer to $200 than $100, but I’m not sure whether or not we’re living in it. The biggest drawback for Expeditions is the atrocious border and mostly opaque text boxes that keep them from actually being “full art”. Maybe there’s a few among those reading this that can shed some light on how the Vintage pimps feel about Expeditions.

Forbidden Orchard

forbidden orchard

Forbidden Orchard has what I feel is one of the cooler artworks in this round of Expeditions, but is pretty much featured in a single deck in all of Magic – Oath of Druids in Vintage. Pack foils for the original are under $20 and there’s also a FTV printing that’s sitting around $7, so the value of this Expeditions card is going to lean heavily on the question we asked with Ancient Tomb: how do the most hardcore of Vintage players feel about Expeditions in general?

Strip Mine

stripmine

Now if I was a smarmy turd, I would point out that the artwork for this appears to be quite the opposite of strip mining as it’s clearly underground…oh right, I am, and I did. Once you get past the technically inaccurate artwork for this, you have another FTV vs. Expeditions cage match. Strip Mine is only allowed as a one of in Vintage and gets heavy play in Commander because ruining someone else’s fun is the name of the game.

In general I feel like the low water mark for any of these Expeditions has to be the $45 mark we see with Smoldering Marsh, but pimping our Commander decks IS a thing, and shiny singletons still command (see what I did there?) a premium. With the FTV printing hovering around the $30 mark, I can’t see this being much more than $60, but again, who knows? Strip Mine is the only card that is literally in each and every Commander deck I’ve ever built, so I feel it’s pretty universal in that format and there are a lot of Commander pimps out there, not to mention that whole Vintage thing again…

Dust Bowl

dustbowl

Dust Bowl is for those Commander terrorists that just want to watch the world burn. Pack foils for this card are around $75, so that seems to be a pretty reasonable ceiling for these as they do not really see much play outside of Commander.

Eye of Ugin

Eye of Ugin

One the topic of spicy one ofs we have Eye of Ugin. With two printings and foil copies for as low as $7, there’s not too much hope for this one unless there’s a sudden surge to really embrace Expeditions as the de facto pimp edition. While this does see constructed play in Modern Tron and fringe play in Legacy Cloudpost decks, it’s unlikely this one is going to get past that “technically it’s an Expeditions” price at the bottom of the pile.

Mana Confluence

Mana Confluence

Not really excited about this one kneecapping my spec on foil Mana Confluences for eternal formats, but at least the art has something happening on it this time around. Mana Confluence has the dubious honor of being the best land for a bad deck. Generally only showing up in Legacy Dredge and Modern Bloom Titan decks doesn’t help the forecast for this one immensely, but it’s ability to slot into nearly any multicolor Commander deck makes it at least a desirable card for some players. I’d put this one somewhere in the $45-60 range as it’s probably less desirable to own than any of the shock lands but it’s still a Expeditions land.

Kor Haven

korhaven

Kor Haven was a good catch on Wizards’ part for a land that’s cool and fits thematically on Zendikar. Kor Haven is one of those cards that I still feel like Commander players have failed to rediscover as foil copies have been steady around $45 for as far back as there are data points on it’s price. This doesn’t make for an extremely compelling case that this one’s price will be much different as it’s not likely that the Expeditions copy is even half as rare as the original printing. There’s a chance that the Expeditions copy being printed makes the Commander hive mind remember this card exists, but probably not enough to really move the needle.

Tectonic Edge

tectonicedge

Tectonic Edge has the dubious honor of being the worst of three uncommons to appears as Expeditions. This is going to see far more Modern play than Smoldering Marsh and friends, but it might be hard for players to get past the fact that Tectonic Edge was printed at uncommon during this decade. It gets played in Modern but not in any significant quantity. Sure it sees play in Commander, but mostly as a budget alternative to Wasteland and Strip Mine…and there just aren’t a ton of budget pimps in the world. Tectonic Edge is likely going to sit on the price floor, or be the one to break through it completely. I would not be at all surprised to see these as low as $25.

Filter Lands

firelitthicket

Filter lands haven’t made huge waves in constructed formats since their rotation from Standard, typically showing up as singletons outside of aberrations like the Geralf’s Messenger Jund before the Bloodbraid Elf ban. However, they remain extremely popular in Commander and are one of the premiere dual land cycles in that format.

Currently their prices range from Graven Cairns on the low end at $18 to Cascade Bluffs on the high end at $65. Wherever these fall on the spectrum, we can expect loose ranking based on color desirability with the blue ones on the top end and the Naya colors on the low end with black / red trailing as the caboose, because let’s face it – nobody likes Graven Cairns.

I think it’s fair to guesstimate these falling primarily in the $50-75 range, as there’s not a huge demand to push these above and beyond their predecessors.

Wild Cards

The two questions that will most impact the prices of these Expeditions are “how are these received by Vintage players?” and “how much do Commander players care about consistency?” It’s quite possible that demand (and therefore price) for the filter lands goes higher if Commander players embrace these lands in general.

If you’re already pimping your commander deck with Expeditions shocks and fetches, there’s a decent chance you say “might as well” and follow suit with filter lands, Wastelands, Strip Mines, and Mana Confluences. A similar phenomena is possible within the Vintage community when it comes to the Ancient Tomb/Forbidden Orchard/Mana Confluence conundrum.

Of course there’s always those eBay preorder prices to  look at for reference…looks like Forbidden Orchard is sitting unsold at prices anywhere between $55 and $400 so you can take that for what it’s worth.

PROTRADER: The Winners vs. Losers Debate

While navigating a tumultuous stock market and a rapidly evolving MTG market, I often find parallels between the two worth sharing. While sometimes not directly applicable, strategies from one economy can educate us on how we should consider the other. This is perhaps my favorite part about writing for this site – the freedom I have to explore the similarities between the two in an academic way.

However not everything between the two matches up perfectly. Sometimes a mindset that is commonly applied in the stock market doesn’t make sense to consider in MTG finance.

This week I will write about another paralleled question between Wall Street and MTG finance. You’ll notice along the way that the questions don’t fit 100%, but they still trigger worthwhile discussion that leads to an actionable recommendation. Through this framework I believe we can make some deterministic conclusions around what the best pick-ups are going forward as we enter 2016.

The premise: it’s all about winners vs. losers. Allow me to explain.

Winners or Losers

 One of my favorite podcasts (besides Brainstorm Brewery of course) is the port of the television show Fast Money. The CNBC show is all about traders and their reactions to the constant fluctuations and news of the stock market. They do a nice job keeping things entertaining – although I’ll admit the traders, while “famous”, make their fair share of errors. I never follow their direction blindly. But I do like the way they pose up questions and analyses.

One question they consider frequently that I really enjoy is whether or not one should look to buy the “winner” or “loser” of a given segment. For example, they may touch on retail stocks and discuss whether one should buy a beaten up stock such as that of Macy’s or a recent winner like Nike. In a nutshell, they’re addressing whether they feel it’s better to ride the momentum of the winner or bet on a catch-up play from the loser.

Macy's

The question is certainly worth considering seriously. By definition the losing stock, such as Macy’s, is certainly out of favor on Wall Street. Meanwhile Nike is basically the darling of the Dow, having the best 2015 performance of the 30 stock index. However as long as the “loser” is still profitable, at some point it may become an attractive enough value to pick up. Conversely the winner may be getting too expensive, facing resistance to the upside.

Now let’s try to apply this to Magic finance. Random buyouts aside, prices rise and decay in MTG due strictly to supply and demand. There really isn’t as strong of an equivalent of “in-favor” and “out-of-favor” like there is in the stock market. There’s far less emotional selling and buying (not zero, but certainly less). Macy’s is certainly hated right now and Nike is a hedge fund’s dream. W can’t necessarily draw this parallel to, say, Khans fetches and Zendikar fetches perfectly. But we can try.

Delta

Tarn

Over the past few months, Scalding Tarn has spiked, pulled back, and then continued its rise. More importantly, buylists on the Zendikar fetches has consistently risen for the most part. On the other hand vendors are paying less on Polluted Delta now than they were over the summer. You could say Khans fetches aren’t in favor right now while their Zendikar counterparts certainly are.

These trends are driven purely by fundamentals. There isn’t any excessive emotional momentum at play here – Standard players are moving their Khans fetches in anticipation of rotation and this volume is outweighing Modern and Legacy demand, where as Zendikar fetches aren’t facing that same pressure. It’s as simple as that. If asked which is the better pickup, I’d argue both will ultimately trend together once Khans is well out of Standard. Until then, the play is to stick with the “winner” – not because of momentum, but because Scalding Tarn and Verdant Catacombs will particularly experience greater demand as we enter 2016 while Khans fetches continue to suffer from rotation.

Another Winner/Loser Comparison: Counterspells

 Occasionally, a publicly traded company will announce a secondary offering. This is essentially the creation of more stock to raise cash. The practice dilutes value of current shareholders by increasing the supply in the market. In a way, it’s kind of the equivalent of a reprint. Except often times a company offers more shares to raise capital for a given investment, which is intended to pay out in the long term. Reprints in Magic offer zero long term benefit.

Because of this difference, a winner/loser comparison involving reprints is again not a perfect parallel with the stock market. But I can still use the setup of winner versus loser to provide guidance on where I think the market goes from here. For example, let’s compare the relative “winner” Force of Will with a reprinted Modern counterpart, Cryptic Command.

Force

Cryptic

Force of will has shown cyclical behavior over the past few years, but the general direction is upward. Cryptic Command on the other hand, spiked in Spring 2014 but has since pulled back drastically due to the Modern Masters 2015 reprint. Once again, this isn’t an emotional reaction in price – the supply of Cryptic has increased significantly, impacting fundamentals.

If I assume supply will remain constant going forward (i.e. no more reprints), my recommendation is to follow the option with more demand upside in the future: Cryptic Command. Modern is growing in popularity and has the Pro Tour season to support demand. On the other hand, Legacy demand may falter as there are fewer premier Legacy tournaments in 2016 than recent years. While the cyclical nature of Force of Will may suggest there’s upside in the next 3 months, I can’t imagine the growth is significant enough to merit a material investment. I’d much prefer getting into Cryptic Command, betting on the next Modern surge.  It also helps that we have data on other Modern Masters reprints that have since recovered in price.

One More Comparison: Discard

Perhaps the most difficult winner/loser comparison lies in the one-drop discard spell category. Which is the better pickup: Inquisition of Kozilek (winner) or Thoughtseize (loser)?

Seize

Inquisition

Looking at the charts above, we see that the top buy price of Inquisition has risen from $3 to nearly $8 throughout 2015. Meanwhile the top buy price of Theros Thoughtseize has decreased from around $11 to $10 after hitting a peak over the summer. The fact that these two discard spells are nearing parity in price is baffling given their discrepancy in rarity and (supposed) power level.

While it’s fair to ask the question of which is the better pickup, once again we have a situation where prices are driven strictly by fundamentals. The supply of Thoughtseize is higher than that of Inquisition despite the rarity difference. This is due to the recent printing of Thoughtseize in the high print-run set Theros. On the other hand Inquisition of Kozilek was opened far less being a third set from years ago. Once again this isn’t a love/hate comparison like Macy’s and Nike – this isn’t about emotions.

Still, the question begs an answer. If I was forced to choose, I’d have to ask for another month to decide. Why a month? Because I want to see what gets printed in Oath of the Gatewatch first. With the recent Kozilek spoiler, a reprint of Inquisition of Kozilek makes tremendous sense. I simply cannot advocate picking up copies of this discard spell until we confirm it is not getting reprinted. Assuming it dodges reprint again, I’d recommend Inquisition. Until then, the safer pickup is Thoughtseize.

Wrapping It Up

 Momentum is a term that’s thrown around often on Wall Street. A stock that has done well over recent months is considered to be “in-favor”, sometimes leading to continued upward movement. On the other hand a hated stock can sometimes get beat up unfairly simply because of its recent poor performance. Macy’s and Nike are two stocks that reflect this dichotomy. Another good example would be the Facebook/Twitter pair. The former is incredibly well-run and has the dedicated support from Wall Street. The latter has struggled to grow its user base, and therefore it has been an absolute dog of the Nasdaq. With each passing day, Facebook seemingly climbs higher while Twitter gets beaten up, perhaps unfairly, even more and more.

The same comparisons can be made in the Magic market. However, buyouts aside MTG cards don’t really exhibit emotional “momentum” in the same fashion. Typically price movements happen due to fundamental shifts in supply and demand. Still, the winner/loser debate is one that is certainly applicable to MTG finance. The choices really are boundless: Wasteland (loser) or Dark Depths (winner)? Jace, the Mind Sculptor (loser) or Liliana of the Veil (winner)? Dark Confidant (loser) or Stoneforge Mystic (winner)? Each choice presents two options: either bet on a card that’s already moved up significantly or bet on a card that is seeing fundamental decay in price.

Perhaps looking at these comparisons can help us conclude a broader opinion of the market. For example, my predisposition to choose Zendikar fetches over Khans fetches and Inquisition of Kozilek (barring reprint) over Thoughtseize is an indicator that I prefer Modern cards printed at least a couple years ago over recently printed cards. But my pick of Cryptic Command over Force of will indicates my belief in Modern’s future success over that of Legacy. Such broadening conclusions can really help dictate one’s ongoing investment strategy.

In fact, that’s essentially what I’ve done here. By starting with some individual questions, I’ve boiled down my investment strategy going forward. I’m going to target Modern cards over Legacy cards and older cards over newer. While perhaps not so clear cut, these guiding principles will ensure I think more mechanically about my options before committing funds in a directionless fashion. If nothing else, this winner/loser exercise has helped me this much.

I’d recommend considering these comparisons and using your own answers to drive broader investment strategies. Perhaps you’ll surprise yourself with where you end up. If nothing else, you’ll think more diligently about the many investment decisions we face on a daily basis. Just remember – in MTG finance prices don’t move on momentum (besides buyouts). Card prices rise and decay due to shifts in supply and demand. Wasteland isn’t down in price because it’s simply hated – it is genuinely in less demand relative to six months ago. So when picking losers, be cognizant of the evolving metagame and format favorability. We all like an underdog, but picking one with the right risk/reward equation will be the best way to bank on these out-of-style cards throughout 2016.

Sig’s Quick Hits

  • Arabian Nights Erhnam Djinn has just hit an all-time high thanks to demand for the Old School MTG format. Star City Games has recently increased their price of NM copies to $69.99, and they only have 2 MP copies in stock with a price tag of $49.99. I’m surprised by two things here. First, the fact that their Near Mint price tag is substantially below TCG Player – this is likely to change. Second, their Moderately Played price is 70% of their Near Mint price. This suggests to me that the demand is indeed from ‘93/’94 players and not collectors, who would generally be willing to pay a much larger premium for NM copies over MP copies.
  • It’s really interesting to see which printings of Birds of Paradise have gone up in price lately. A cursory look through Star City Games’ stock can give us a peek into which editions are most in-demand recently. They are out of stock of Tenth Edition copies ($6.45), NM Revised copies ($6.65), NM Fourth Edition copies ($6.99), NM Ravnica copies ($6.99), and Unlimited copies ($69.99). They also have low stock in most other sets. It would appear that the lack of reprint in Origins didn’t matter – this one-drop is still rising in price.
  • Chaos Orb is almost completely sold out on the internet. Chalk this up to demand from collector’s along with Old School MTG players. Star City Games is completely sold out of the card across each printing, with Unlimited’s price tag currently at $149.99. I fully expect them to increase their prices on all three printings…if they can ever get some back in stock again, that is.

Snarkmas 2015

Previously, on Accumulated Knowledge…

“So I’m doing some research on card prices right now… I’ll have most of this information synthesized in next week’s article.”

“I’ll be back next week with a more focused, technical article talking about what looks good and what doesn’t long term.”

*GUNSHOTS* “Get down!” *EXPLOSION*

“TELL US WHAT YOU KNOW ABOUT THE DEVICE! NOW!”

*CLICHÉ TORTURE SCENE CLIPS*

“End of the line…”

*Fade to black*

Welcome to another installment of Accumulated Knowledge, the last one of 2015. A couple of things occurred to me last week as I was working on this piece:

  • Everything in Standard is so cheap right now (especially BFZ), that the answer to pretty much everything is either “buy it now!” or “this card isn’t good, so don’t bother!” That’s not a fun article to write, and it’s probably not very fun to read.
  • I’m still in my first calendar year with the MTGPrice family, so if I want to come up with cool/clever/contrived traditions, now is the time to start.
  • Prices are unlikely to shoot up before I start AK back up in two weeks, so the impetus for getting this information out to you “on time” isn’t really there.

So with all of that being said, we are going to celebrate the holidays by doing what I treasure most this time of year: putting off doing something boring until January! Welcome to the first annual…

ACCUMULATED KNOWLEDGE SNARKMAS SPECTACULAR!

This is going to be a “best-of [YEAR]” style article with my own brand of edgy but accessible humor, as well as some holiday treats and even some musical guests1! Honestly, if you’ve made it this far you’re probably going to read the whole thing regardless, so let’s get started!

I’ve also made this article free for everyone, because pageviews are my lifeblood I’m a kind and generous hero! Hooray for me!

BEST NEW SHOW INVOLVING MUPPETS IN 2015

“The Muppets” on ABC. It’s really good!

BIGGEST MAGIC COMMUNITY ISSUE IN 2015

This one was a buzzer beater, but the answer is undoubtedly the Oath of the Gatewatch leaks. Magic has had these kinds of issues for as long as I can remember (I believe Judgment was the first major online leak), and they are really bad for the game in a number of ways.

The first issue is that most of the cards that get spoiled are rares and mythics, which were likely going to be previewed by another site or source. Now you’ve ruined the surprise of the card, as well as had a negative impact on a community site or member that likely has a financial impact, as well. If only 50 percent of people visit a site to see a card that was already leaked, you’ve cut that site’s clicks in half, which means less compensation from advertisers, which means no money for Christmas presents for their kids.

I also think that the damage done now is different than the Rancored_Elf days because Magic casts a much wider net. When leaks like Judgment one happened, the Magic community was almost entirely the competitive community. Now there are so many ways of playing and engaging in the game that a leak totally torpedoes the excitement of a subsection of the community when its big surprise gets ruined.

The last point I’ll make about that is this: I keep thinking back to how amazing and exciting the reveal of Damnation was2, and how that incredible, memorable moment would have never happened if the card had been spoiled early.

All that being said, let’s talk about some of the spoiled cards (I know, I’m the worst).

Nissa, Voice of Zendikar: At 1CC, it’s tempting to compare this with Jace Beleren and Liliana of the Veil. That will not end well for Nissa. I’m not sure that any of the decks that want to immediately to use her second ability wouldn’t be better off playing the new Gideon instead.

Chandra, Flamecaller: This costs six mana, so it’s virtually useless. Chandra is the Britta of planeswalkers.

Ayli, Eternal Pilgrim: I was really trying not to play Shambling Vent in my Abzan Aggro decks because it comes in tapped, but Ayli is such a good two-drop that I may have to regardless. This is a card that definitely feels pushed for Constructed, even if you never get to activate her last ability.

Wasteland (Expeditions): I wish I could tell you that this would create a statistically significant amount of Wastelands so as to breathe life into Legacy, but I don’t think that it will. What this will do is bottom out the price of every rare in the set, and probably most if not all of the mythics also. This is the most important Expeditions land of all the 45.

Forbidden Orchard (Expeditions): Someone with a lot of influence in or around Wizards of the Coast plays Oath of Druids in Vintage. That’s the only explanation.

Kor Haven (Expeditions): I blame Sheldon Menery for this one. Dust Bowl I can understand, but seriously?

Tectonic Edge (Expeditions): F*** you.

CHRISTMAS MOVIE THAT YOU SHOULD WATCH

Jingle All the Way! This movie holds up really well, and has a pretty impressive cast. Definitely in the upper tier of Christmas movies.

OVER-RATED CHRISTMAS MOVIE THAT YOU’LL PROBABLY END UP SITTING THROUGH THIS YEAR

Polar Express. This isn’t really intended to have humor for kids and adults like Jingle All the Way, so I can’t knock it there. Here’s the thing that I always think about when it’s on though: can you think of a movie Tom Hanks has done in the last twenty or so years that ranks below this? I couldn’t get through all of Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, but that had more to do with the film being twenty minutes too long in my opinion. Tom’s had a lot of hits in his career, so I guess when I’m watching Polar Express all I’m thinking is, “We could be watching Catch Me If You Can right now!”

BEST NEW MAGIC-RELATED THING IN 2015

Arena of the Planeswalkers! In his Drive to Work on hooks in games, Mark Rosewater stated that for the vast majority of games, there is a very small life-cycle. Sadly, this is probably true with Arena, which itself is a revival of a game (Heroscape) that died off a few years back.

Arena is really fun, and it does a good job of integrating the kinds of gaming strategy that Magic (the card game) doesn’t have access to—things like spatial awareness and establishing territorial advantage. The only problem with Arena, and what has likely killed it, is that there was no “out of the box” variety: the rules were written so broadly as to be modular with new expansions almost to the point of being unnecessarily complex, but there were no extra pieces to choose from. The first expansion was promised for January 2016, and I plan to buy it for sure, but I have a hard time expecting that there will be any others after that. If you find a copy while out shopping (at one point Amazon had them for $18), pick it up. It’s a great way to game the winter away, even with non-Magic playing friends and family.

WORST NEW MAGIC-RELATED THING IN 2015

Magic: Puzzle Quest! Even though Arena is a totally different style of game, it takes a lot of the soul and spirit of Magic and incorporates it well; the two feel symbiotic.

With Magic: Puzzle Quest, however, the marriage feels forced—it’s a match-three puzzle game with a gimmick and a #brand makeover. The cards used in the game have no relation to their real-life counterparts, and the whole of the narrative in the story mode is core set flavor text. It feels like a game that was designed by people with no background in Magic, but received the needed corporate stamp of approval from someone on the Hasbro totem pole.

The fact that it’s a “freemium” game only makes things feel cheaper, although that’s likely to be expected in 2015 (Hearthstone remains one of the only games to feel both freemium and respectable). There is a ranked play option, and after 33 matches, I am (as of this writing) the 15th highest ranked player in the game. For most of those games, I didn’t entirely understand the rules (I’m still a little foggy), and am at the point where I need to win dozens of games to catch up with the players ranked ahead of me. I have no real interest or incentive to do so. Also, of the 33 matches, I have only played against non-green “decks” three times (players only have the choice of the five mono-colored Origins planeswalkers and their associated decks). That means more than 90-percent of the competitive environment is one style of play—worse than anything experienced in the paper game’s history. I genuinely doubt the Puzzle Quest designers know or care. If Duels of the Planeswalkers is the digital lead-in to paper Magic, then this unpolished simulacrum is an equally likely deterrent.

HEARTWARMING MTG FINANCE CHRISTMAS CAROL OF 2015

(To the tune of “Dominic the Donkey”)

Hey, chingedy ching, hee haw, hee haw
It’s writer Jim Casale!
Chingedy ching, hee haw, hee haw
Magic‘s Jim Casale
La, la, la, la, la, la, la, la, la
La, la, la, la, la, la, laeohda

Next year’s song: “Corbin Got Run Over By A Reindeer”

MY BEST DECK OF 2015

Abzan Aggro (prior to BFZ)! We chopped the top eight and I left without playing, but I’m confident I could have run the whole table. This list was great.

SIGN THAT MAGIC IS GROWING LIKE CRAZY

We even have a morning show now! I expect MTG Breakfast to be on in the waiting room next time I’m getting my oil changed.

CARDS THAT YOU’LL WANT IN FIVE YEARS

One of the most painful things in Magic is looking at prices of cards that you used to own. Here are the cards that are around $5 or so that you’ll be kicking yourself for not holding onto in a half-decade (as well as a percentage degree of confidence):

Dragonlord Silumgar: Not the best one to lead off with, but I’m seeing prices north of ten and south of five on this guy already, and the foils are floating around $30. Giving him a low degree of confidence, but as a mythic dragon, there is nice casual appeal baked in. (15-20%)

The Great Aurora: It’s a splashy mythic from a core set that is going to be difficult to reprint and is currently under $1.You don’t have to like this card to appreciate those factors. It may never be a breakout Constructed staple, but it could have a price trajectory similar to Darksteel Plate or Asceticism. (65%)

Clever Impersonator: Another casual card, this just feels too cool to stay below the price of a booster forever. (45-50%)

Shaman of Forgotten Ways: I don’t think this was banned in Commander, right? If it wasn’t and it never is, this is an early game ramp spell and late game finisher. (50-75%)

Kiora, Master of the Depths and Sarkhan Unbroken: Planeswalkers almost always have a higher floor by virtue of their card type. The only reason these make the list and the Khans version of Sarkhan doesn’t is that he was more pushed for Constructed, and these are more for casual play. The other Sarkhan is good for your cube, though. (90-100%)

Crux of Fate: A black sweeper that can leave you with your finisher unscathed. It’s probably not going to make it into most Modern decks, although it could always go in a Gifts Ungiven package. I don’t know that it has enough in it to get past the point where buylist numbers exceed the current price, though. (15-25%)

Zurgo Bellstriker: Probably not the best back-up to Goblin Guide since we have Monastery Swiftspear, but 2/2s for one mana always have appeal. (25-30%)

Exquisite Firecraft: Being a sorcery hurts, but three mana for four damage is in that sweet spot where a lot of decks may try and make it work anyway. (50-75%)

Siege Rhino: Sometimes I think about how good Loxodon Hierarch and Ravenous Baloth were and then I look at Siege Rhino and smile. This card is already being played in Modern, where Abzan is a perennial favorite. The Duel Deck foils are dirt cheap, too. (65-70%)

Tasigur, the Golden Fang: This is played in Modern, Legacy, and Vintage, as well as Cube (and probably Commander). This card inspired this segment, and is probably the closest thing to a guaranteed winner possible. I’m not scared off by his reprint in the Event Deck, since that was on a small scale. (95%-100%)

HAPPY HOLIDAYS!

I know that the holidays mean different things to everyone, but I just want to wish you and yours the best, and say the words that everyone needs to hear at this time of year:

“May the Force be with you.”

See you in January!

Best,

Ross

1 Not really.

2 For you new folks: the day Damnation was revealed, visitors to Daily MTG where immediately shown a huge copy of Wrath of God and then watched it morph into Damnation. This was before the current age of social media, so most people experienced it without knowing. It was hands-down the best reveal Wizards has ever done.

Foiling for Fun and Profit

By: Cliff Daigle

I’ve mentioned my all-foil deck before, but it only recently occurred to me that a decklist isn’t a bad idea, particularly in regard to the investment that this turned out to be.

Garza Zol, Plague Queen

Creatures:
Nirkana Revenant
Falkenrath Marauders
Soul Collector (Scourge Promo)
Blood Tyrant
Rakish Heir
Anowon, the Ruin Sage
Hero’s Downfall
Bloodlord of Vaasgoth (Promo)
Mirri the Cursed
Olivia Voldaren
Falkenrath Noble
Vampire Nocturnus (Promo)
Necropolis Regent
Kalastria Highborn (Full Art Promo)
Sangromancer
Butcher of Malakir
Unscythe, Killer of Kings
Szadek, Lord of Secrets
Dark Impostor
Ascendant Evincar
Kalitas, Bloodchief of Ghet
Falkenrath Aristocrat
Captivating Vampire
Kheru Bloodsucker
Sengir Vampire (foil Italian 9th)
Vampire Hexmage
Guul Draz Assassin (Buy-a-Box)
Stromkirk Captain
Vein Drinker
Sengir Nosferatu
Drana, Kalastria Bloodchief
Bloodline Keeper
Markov Blademaster
Moroii
Vampire Nighthawk (Promo)
Vampiric Dragon
Bloodghast
Malakir Bloodwitch
Duskmantle Seer

Planeswalkers
Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker

Enchantments
Oversold Cemetery
Rhystic Study (Commander’s Arsenal)
Phyrexian Arena (9th)
Bloodchief Ascension

Artifacts
Gilded Lotus (M13)
Urza’s Incubator
Mind’s Eye (CA)
Obelisk of Urd
Sol Ring (FTV)
Armillary Sphere
Gem of Becoming
Blade of the Bloodchief

Instants
Chaos Warp (Commander’s Arsenal)
Countersquall
Magmaquake (Game day)
Cryptic Command (MPR)

Sorceries
Increasing Ambition
Blood Tribute
Black Sun’s Zenith (Game Day)
In Garruk’s Wake (Promo)
Rise of the Dark Realms
Rite of Replication
Patriarch’s Bidding
Damnation (MPR)

Lands
Steam Vents (RTR)
Watery Grave (GTC)
Blood Crypt (RTR)
Drowned Catacomb (M12)
Dragonskull Summit (M12)
Graven Cairns (Shadowmoor)
Rakdos Carnarium (GPT)
Dimir Aqueduct (RAV)
Izzet Boilerworks (DIS)
Temple of Deceit
Temple of Epiphany
Temple of Malice
Bloodstained Mire (KTK)
Thespian’s Stage
Transguild Promenade
Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
Temple of the False God
Crumbling Necropolis
Reliquary Tower (FNM)
Cavern of Souls
Mana Confluence
Command Tower (judge promo)
Rupture Spire
Bojuka Bog
Urborg, Tomb of Yawgnoth
5 Swamp (all signed by the EDH Rules Committee)
3 Mountain
2 Island

I finished foiling this deck out in 2013, not long before I started writing for MTGPrice. The deck has changed slightly, and for today’s purposes, it’s worth mentioning that I had the other filter lands and Sulfur Falls, but the prices on those cards went so bananas that I felt I had to sell.

Today I want to make the case to you that foiling out a deck, a cube, or a collection is more than a way to satisfy the inner magpie, it’s an investment in a lot of ways.

Philosophy #1: Foil versions are printed less often, including reprints.

This is the basic tenet for picking up foil versions of cards. Foils are currently printed when the card is in Standard, when there’s a special set that has foil versions (such as Conspiracy or Modern Masters) and short-run special printings, like Judge promos, alternate-art versions in Clash Packs, and From the Vault sets.

That’s it. The card is in Standard or it’s a special reprint to get a foil version. This includes Magic Online redemptions, as that’s only an option for a limited time.

Because there are not only less foil versions as compared to the nonfoils, and the options for reprinting foils are significantly fewer, there just won’t be many foils. This leads to the foil multiplier, an unofficial metric that I use when figuring out how hard to chase a card.

Usually, a card in foil is about two to two and a half times as valuable. This general rule works for almost any card that isn’t subject to greater Legacy/Modern/casual demand, and variations in that rule indicate one of two things: The card is in great demand because it’s ubiquitous, especially in Standard; or the demand for a special version is much higher.

Let’s look at a few examples:

Anafenza, the Foremost is 5.99 regular and $13 in foil, including the Prerelease promos. She isn’t in heavy foil demand, keeping the multiplier at a little above two.

Rending Volley is 55 cents nonfoils, and as far as foils go there’s only Amazon at 4.49 and Card Kingdom at $6. Bouncing over to TCGPlayer, we see that the lowest is about $6 before shipping. That’s a multiplier of about 12, and a sign that the card is being picked up in older formats. Sure enough, it’s a popular sideboard option in Modern and occasionally Legacy.

The Chain Veil is $1.36 in normal and about $7 in foil, entirely due to casual demand. The only decklists I can find for it are Commander decks with lots of planeswalkers and that want to repeat using their effects over and over.

Checking the foil multiplier is how I like to gauge its appeal outside of Standard, and is a good measure of its likely future value.

Philosophy #2: Foils are more resistant to losing value when reprinted.

Note that I am not saying immune, I’m saying resistant. The price will likely drop at first but it won’t drop as far and it will eventually recover. Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite is an example.

Capture

She took a hit, being a foil in Modern Masters 2015 but it was for about 30% of her value, as compared to losing more than half with the nonfoil. The judge promo also puts a limit on her upper value, as it represents a very chase target, especially being written in Phyrexian script.

Notice, though, that large period of time when the foil was in the sub-$40 range. That’s the goal and the dream. If you foil out your deck when foils are new, then the price is perfect.

When a foil is reprinted, it’s very rarely in the same art and the same frame. Even when it is, the price will often rebound over time.

Case in point: Phyrexian Arena. Even with three foil versions (Apocalypse, 8th, and 9th) the card is old enough and awesome enough that all the versions are about $60.

Philosophy #3: Foil lands are often the hardest to acquire, the most expensive, and therefore the safest long-term value.

The cards that took me the longest to acquire were the Ravnica block bounce lands. No store had them in stock, and it seemed like no one had them for trade. Ever. It was easier to find filter lands, shocks, and everything else, but those bounce lands took me six months past the rest of them to get. Only when I saw on a message board that someone was breaking up a foil Cube did I get these lands.

Interestingly, those bounce lands had started to really increase in price from a stable $4 when Modern Masters 2015 came along. The originals have kept most of their value, while the new ones are about half that price. I think scarcity is at work there, in that the original foils are in decks and not in circulation.

I’m going to be watching the foil prices of the filter lands closely now that the Expeditions lands have been spoiled. Is it going to depress prices? Hold down the upper ones? Will the originals be on the market if lots of people upgrade to the newest versions?

Philosophy #4: Foils can be in worse condition, and there will still be a market.

Trust me on this: People who want foils want the foils badly. Being in less-than-perfect condition isn’t much of a barrier to acquisition. I wouldn’t give full value, don’t get me wrong, but a SP foil of a card I need in foil is going to have me drooling hard.

Selling the SP/MP/HP foil is not easy, but when you find the person who wants to have it, they will happily take it off of your hands.

Philosophy #5: Nonfoil reprints can increase the price of your foil.

Let’s look at Black Market, the foil from Mercadian Masques.

Capture

Being a $4 card in the newest Commander set hasn’t budged this price yet. But what it has done is increase the number of people who know about this card. From there, it’s only a matter of time before the larger number of decks it’s in translates to a greater demand for the foil.

Another example from two years ago: Forced Fruition. This was one of many cards to see a spike because lots of Nekusar, the Mindrazer decks. The nonfoil spiked, as did the foil. If this had been Standard, then the foils wouldn’t be much more than the regular version. Instead, we have a foil multiplier of a little more than two.

If you want to share other tips, tricks, or reasons to go foil, please feel free to comment. I try not to have this be a humblebrag about how I got in before things got expensive, but that’s what happened. It can also happen to you, if you start foiling now.


 

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