Spoiler Coverage – Oath of the Gatewatch Initial Peeks

Note: I will preface this by saying any of the cards here MAY BE FAKE.  Official spoilers for Oath of the Gatewatch has not started yet.  I will analyze cards for the possibility that they may be real.

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Well, I’ll let you take that all in.  In my personal opinion, these cards are probably real.  Kozilek has long been an expected card in Oath of the Gatewatch.  It was implied by the flavor text in Ugin’s Insight that the other Eldrazi are on Zendikar.

Ugin's Insight

Checks for Kozilek being real:

  • It has a cast trigger just like all other Eldrazi Titans.
  • It draws cards similar to the old Kozilek.
  • It is not indestructible.  Ulamog was the most durable Eldrazi the last time.
  • He has the same power and toughness as the old Kozilek (12/12).
  • His activated ability “distorts reality,” as has been implied by various story articles.
  • Aleksi Briclot is an artist frequently used for face characters (look at how many planeswalkers he has done)
  • Template is very good (menace doesn’t have reminder text, terminology is clean, abilities appear in the correct order)

Marks against Kozilek:

  • There is a lot of homage to the old Kozilek.  A convincing parody is a lot easier than a convincing new card.
  • We don’t know what that star mana means, this card’s credibility is almost entirely predicated on Wastes being real.
  • This is an incredibly good quality scan of the card.  It is extremely difficult to get this quality of card so early.
  • Most spoilers this early are text-only (from people who have seen the cards but do not have a picture of it)

My final thoughts are that you can think whatever you want about this Kozilek, but even if it is real, there are not a lot of financial implications here.  It doesn’t solve any problems decks had previously, but it looks like it would be a great, flashy mythic to sell a small, winter set.

Wastes

Wastes is an interesting one.  As I type this up, the jury is out on what this land actually even does.

Checks for Wastes being real:

  • Avoids the Barry’s Land dilemma.  This is a basic land with no basic land type.  This is likely to keep cards like Tribal Flames from scaling more.

255b

  • This is a common, not a “basic land” rarity.  It lends it to a similar scheme to “Snow lands” in Ice Age.
  • Raymond Swanland is known to do important face cards.  Most recently, he did Haven of the Spirit Dragon and Ugin, the Spirit Dragon.
  • The rocky formations are similar to the rock formations on cards from other Kozilek cards.  It will be interesting to see if we get 2 more pictures with the dusty landscape (Ulamog) and the web landscape (Emrakul)
  • If this makes colorless mana, then it is the much-desired basic land that people wanted for colorless EDH decks.
  • Colorless mana as a “sixth color” was part of a design for the Great Designer search at one point in time.  We have seen a lot of mechanics from the search be used in later sets (evolve and battalion among them)

Strikes against Wastes:

  • Wizards has never done another basic land other than the five originally in Alpha.
  • Maro has stated there is a lot of rules baggage that comes with another basic land and color
  • This basic land would be incredibly parasitic and unlikely to ever be seen outside of Oath of the Gatewatch.
  • It’s a common and not a basic land rarity.  It’s likely an oversight of someone making the fake.
  • It’s the last card in the set but it’s unlikely there is only one picture.  If there is one for each brood, Kozilek’s should be 183 instead of 184 because Ulamog comes after Kozilek alphabetically.

Financial relevance is a lot higher for Wastes than Kozilek.  If this card is a common and not a basic land rarity, it will be extremely coveted.  A new basic land would be extremely desirable for many.  I would be unlikely to trade or sell any foil Wastes that I open, because there is no precedent to where its price tag may end up.

While this very early for spoilers, it has a lot of people talking, and if these cards are real, then there could be a lot of interesting interactions in Oath of the Gatewatch.  If this is another set with very parasitic mechanics, we could see some very expensive cards long-term from this block.

Grinder Finance – Field Report: Grand Prix Atlanta

While guest writer, Jeremy (@LengthyXemit) was not available to bring you a financial breakdown of Grand Prix Atlanta, I was there and will do my best to provide you will unbiased information from the Grand Prix.

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I arrived late on Friday and was able to stop by all of the vendors to check out buy and sell prices.  Grand Prix regular, Ogre, was buying for a rather rag-tag booth.  I’m honestly not sure who was running the booth because they didn’t have signage saying as much.  In all, there was a paltry 8 vendors (and StarCity games) buying and selling at this Grand Prix.  It was clear from the onset it was a buyer’s market.

Player Trends

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I don’t want to continue to sound like I’m singing a song of gloom and doom but if you didn’t sell your cards on Friday or very early on Saturday, you had very limited deals.  I had an Unlimited Volcanic Island I was interested on selling and decided to try to shop it around.  Most cards in Modern and Standard it’s easy to tell who you should sell to (the hotlists boards say a lot).  With Legacy or Vintage staples (especially cards on the reserve list) you can ask vendors until you get the best price.  Depending on how well they move the product they may offer you more or less on cards like Moxen (which vary widely by condition).  I went to my friends at the Coolstuff booth and got a quote a bit lower than I wanted to get that weekend.  After I went to 6 other booths without any offer, I realized it was going to be difficult to move it for top dollar.  I raced back and got my money before they could buy too many more dual lands.  The theme of the weekend is that nearly every vendor was marking down played duals and turning away sellers with more of them.  I’m not sure if this “sell off” is a reaction to StarCity’s announcement of reduced Legacy support or if this is just coinciding with the end of year sell off. StarCity games also had aggressively priced duals in their HP display case and even did a special sale on Sunday morning for a deeper discount.

Dealer Preparedness

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If you wanted to sell cards after dropping from the tournament to get some cash for side events, you would have had some bad news.  Many dealers (especially the smaller ones) ran out of cash to purchase cards midway through Saturday.  I’m not sure if they came under prepared or had nobody that could take out more but if you wanted cash your choice of the 8 vendors was very limited.  Some vendors (like Ice Imports, above) changed their hotlist boards from buy price to “credit price” which often made it look more enticing than it was.  I’m fairly certain a lot more people sold off their standard collection this weekend than was expected.  If you have a lot of standard cards you were waiting to sell off, you’re probably about to run out of time by the time this article comes out.  I would expect Grand Prix Pittsburgh to have some of the lowest buy prices of the year.

Expeditions

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Special guest appearance by Brainstorm Brewery co-host Ryan Bushard

I bought a number of expeditions this weekend and there were deals to be had if you were vigilant.  Cases were changing so often you could visit the same booth every few hours and see a different selection of expeditions.  I tried to make some slightly lower offers than sticker price but none of the vendors were really interested.  The prices were pretty comparable to TCG low on a lot of them and I managed to fill out some I was missing for about that much.  If you bought any expeditions this weekend then you probably got them at the lowest price they will ever be again.  I personally was able to pick up an expedition Cinder Glade, Watery Grave, Sacred Foundry, and Arid Mesa for a paltry $250.   I can’t stress this enough, but if you want these then get them now.  We’re done seeing them get cheaper.

Battle for Zendikar

Have you ever seen a dealer tell you they didn’t want any more of a chase Standard mythic? A lot of vendors’ cases were filled to the brim with Gideon, Ally of Zendikar and buy price a fraction of his sticker price.  I would expect an overall drop in the price of the land cycle, Gideon, and any remaining mythics or rares holding value in the set in the coming weeks.  This is not unexpected, as the usual best buy point to get into fall set cards is late December.  If you are interested in picking up cards for EDH or other more casual formats, you can expect the best prices in December until they rotate in Spring 2017.  I’m personally looking to grab my Gideons for the year around Christmas.  I’m expecting to pay about $20 per copy.

Fetch lands

I sold off my extra ones this weekend as they have been on a pretty steady decline on buy lists.  For some reason, Flipside was paying $11 for Windswept Heath (which is the highest I’ve seen it – most vendors were paying $6-9) but the rest of them were $16 or less.  I think we may actually have another “good” time to buy into them soon.  A lot of vendors are filled to the brim with lands and it’s only a matter of time before they reduce sell prices to move some inventory.  If you have some money eating a hole in your pocket it’s hard to not recommend picking up some real estate in December.

Making Friends

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Grands Prix are much more than just buying and selling cards.  Meeting new friends and forging connections makes every Grand Prix that much more fun.  Self proclaimed “King of the Nerds” – Zach (@ZachSellsMagic) is pictured here with his prize wall spoils without playing in any side events.  If you’re interested in oversized card finance Zach is your go-to for information on cards that aren’t one-ofs (like the Eternal weekend cards).

Closing Thoughts

  • I will be at GP Pittsburgh next weekend battling it out and searching the vendors.  Apparently there are 19 (!) vendors scheduled to be in attendance.  If you have any questions that you would like me to research while there, leave them below!
  • Mtg finance information will be slowing down as the lack of tournaments causes a card price drop across the board.  We’re about 4 weeks out from the lowest priced cards of the year.
  • Modern prices should start rebounding much sooner because the first Pro Tour next year (Oath of the Gatewatch) is Modern.

 

PROTRADER: Closing the Arbitrage Gaps

It couldn’t have been all my doing. At least, not directly. Whether or not I sparked action is a separate matter.

Of course I’m talking about recent arbitrage opportunities. Many that I have cited in the past have dried up, especially on stuff like Alpha and Beta.

But I’m sure it didn’t take much to impact market pricing on older and more obscure cards. When a store is trying to stock up on near mint Alpha rares, it doesn’t take more than a copy or two to motivate them to drop their buy prices. Even giants like Star City Games can’t possibly want to sink more than a couple hundred dollars into stuff like Alpha Chaoslace.

Chaoslace

As a result, previous blanket statements I’ve made in the past no longer hold true. Since I wrote an article on Alpha and Beta buy lists a couple months ago I’ve noticed many price cuts at Star City Games and, more notably, Channel Fireball. When I noticed strong buy lists I made sure to cite them for our ProTraders. Now that trends reversed some, I wanted to make sure I doubled back to this topic to provide a timely update.

The rest of this content is only visible to ProTrader members.

To learn how ProTrader can benefit YOU, click here to watch our short video.

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ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

PROTRADER: Breaking Down Grand Prix Seattle

Legacy is dead. Legacy is dying. Legacy just had its biggest weekend of the year. Legacy is not dying. Star City Games is trying to kill Legacy. Star City Games is the sole reason people care about Legacy. Legacy is too expensive. Legacy is cheaper than Standard. Legacy is the next Vintage. Modern is the next Legacy. Legacy is the funnest/coolest/best format ever! Nothing beside remains.

The rest of this content is only visible to ProTrader members.

To learn how ProTrader can benefit YOU, click here to watch our short video.

expensive cards

ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY