Going Mad – Upsetting the Ecosystem

By: Derek Madlem

At the Great Barrier Reef off the coast of Australia, we’re seeing coral reefs that took decades to develop dying off en mass because of slight changes in the acidity and temperature of ocean water. As these reefs die off, the plethora of life that sprung up in and around them are disappearing as well and their absence ripples out affecting creatures that rely on them to survive, causing imbalances in the entire ecosystem…all from a small change in the acidity of ocean waters.

What do Magic and the Great Barrier Reef have in common? Well not a lot other than the occasional turtle and the fact that changes in the ecosystem are going to have long term impacts on their existence.

What the hell am I talking about? Over the last year and some change, Magic has gone through a huge number of seemingly minute and innocuous changes that going forward are going to have an impact on the value of cards, how these changes ripple out is only beginning to come to light. We’re still learning what all of these changes mean for the game over time, but let’s start by taking a look at what I’m talking about:

Rotation Schedule

Rotation schedules have been changed. In the past we saw a large set released in October followed up by two expansions for that set being released in February / April, then a Core Set some time in July. The schedule of ancillary products slotted in around these releases, with Duel Decks featuring a late summer release that heralded the fall expansion and a late winter release that gave us a couple planeswalkers. Wizards was tying too much of it’s yearly success to the fall release and decided to try to make that April set matter as much as the October set, thus the new rotation was born.

Every six months we’re going to see two sets leaving Standard. Before a set like Khans of Tarkir would stay viable for 24 months after release, now it’s only going to be legal for 18 months. With the old rotation schedule we had a pretty easy time predicting when the peaks and valleys for card prices were going to be and we made easy money picking up cards like Elspeth, Sun’s Champion at $15 and getting rid of them at $30 when we knew the price would peak. We also knew that it was all down hill for cards rotating within the next 9-12 months.

I wrote an ill-received article about how this change could affect the annual price spikes we learned to count on and was basically laughed off the metaphorical stage with rotten vegetables and expletives peppering my psyche…but then here we are with very little movement in Khans of Tarkir & Fate Reforged (outside fetch lands) cards during rotation. I’m not ready to jump up and down proclaiming my victory on this idea quite yet as some cards did move, but overall this rotation is one of the calmest that I can remember.

Going forward we’ll have to see how Dragons of Tarkir and Magic Origins fare this April, my guess is that these sets will behave in a relatively similar manner. With only two sets appearing per block, we’re going to see many of the archetypes that rely on synergy unable to reach critical mass so it will become clearer which cards are powerful early in their lifespans.

Volunteering Abolished

For basically forever, judges at high level events have been compensated using the morally ambiguous Judge Foil program. It was fairly simple, you showed up to “volunteer” at a Grand Prix and you were rewarded with packs of sweet premium cards that you could immediately sell to vendors for a sizeable chunk of cash, or keep for your own treasure trove.

Some guy complained and the community at large joined in and reveled at the outrage, now judges need to be compensated by tournament organizers rather than by Wizards of the Coast and that cost is being passed on to the consumers. We now have the pleasure looking at $70 constructed format Grand Prixs, which is a significant increase from the the $40 we saw in the past.

How is this affecting us? Well for starters, many of us simply aren’t going to participate in these events any longer. Before I could look at the Grand Prix promo and playmat as a substantial subsidization of my entry fee, knocking an easy $20-25 off the cost, leaving me at $15-20 out of pocket, now I’m  out $50. At a $50 entry fee, I have to evaluate whether or not I’m actually a contender in a tournament; at $15, I can throw my money in the pot without second thought.

But players aren’t the only ones feeling the pinch, vendors are soaking up additional costs to vend these events as well. In the past we’d see more vendors (and more competition) because the table fees were so much lower. Tournament organizers have almost universally instituted a bid system (and a cap to the number of vendors able to participate) to determine who gets to occupy a reduced number of tables. This increased overhead is slowly bleeding many vendors out of the game completely. Now, one bad Grand Prix is enough to knock many of the smaller vendors out of the game completely.

The RPTQ

We’ve also now seen a year of the new PTQ system in action. Local PTQs used to be “free roll” events for many vendors and a good fallback to lick their wounds after experiencing a couple Grand Prix events. Being one of only a couple vendors at semi-local events meant that you could promote your brand and make decent money without shelling out a fortune. While it’s true that there was such a thing as a “bad PTQ”, it usually only took one “decent” buy to cover your entire cost for the event and everything beyond that was just gravy.

PTQs were also a good starting point for vendors trying to ramp up to doing Grand Prix events or running a significant online operation, now that the startup capital to break into the Grand Prix scene is almost insurmountable. It’s been said by many vendors that if you aren’t already in the game, it might be too late.

The other issue the RPTQ scene has brought to the forefront is the cannibalization of event participants. Previously, if your dream was to make it to the Pro Tour, you played a half dozen or fewer PTQs in your region spread out over a number of months. Now we’re barraged with multiple PPTQs available to us within a reasonable driving distance every single weekend.

These events are competing directly with each other and large regional events like SCG Opens or Grand Prixs for participants. Players are now being forced to choose between sneaking into an under attended PPTQ or attending a larger event.

While these numbers seem inconsequential, it’s easy for a handful of these tournaments to be occurring within a 3-4 hour radius of an SCG Open with each of them siphoning off a couple dozen players that would have otherwise probably attended the larger event. In a world with $50 entry fees, this can quickly add up to multiple thousands of dollars coming right off the bottom line.

The Omni-Vendor

The ride of TCGPlayer over the past couple of years has ensured the general public a constant supply of low-cost cards. TCGPlayer used to be a great tool for vendors to take their Grand Prix buys to market and reap handsome rewards, but now the flood gates have opened and there’s no turning back. With TCGPlayer becoming the storefront of every guy with a backpack and a few cards, traditional brick and mortar stores and GP Vendors are competing with guys that have essentially $0 in overhead costs. The race to the bottom is real and there are few real winners.

For example, I just searched for Blood Crypt and was returned 386 vendors. THREE HUNDRED AND EIGHTY SIX! How far down that list do you think I scrolled? If you aren’t in the five cheapest results, you’re likely not selling a Blood Crypt today.

This marketplace has created a new priesthood within the Magic community. Their places of power are Craigslist ads where you can usually find numerous ads all boasting the best prices paid for your cards and the hundreds of Facebook buy/sell/trade groups, many of which are created and moderated by people looking to skim any value out of the collections being offered before they even reach other readers.

While the race to the bottom benefits us as greatly as consumers, it puts pressure on the GP vendors and LGS owners that essentially subsidized every tournament table we’ve ever played on.

MTGO Changes

Paper Magic isn’t the only place we’ve seen massive changes in the past couple of years. We’ve seen significant changes to both set redemption and the way prizes are given out on MTGO. Personally I stay away from MTGO because I know it’s a rabbit hole that I would not fare well in, but as these conversations bubble up on the Twitterverse, I’m paying attention.

In the past you could pick up packs for as low as half of the retail price shortly after release as drafters found it easier to go infinite flipping packs than opening them, with the changes in prize payout this has changed and second hand packs are only a tiny fraction below the retail cost.

Set redemption also saw a hefty charge placed on it’s use. I’m not familiar with the exact procedure before and after the changes, but my understanding is that the redemption fee changed from $5 to $25 per set. When you’re in the business of grinding set redemptions, that additional $20 puts a significant barrier to profitability in the way. The increased fees has no doubt reduced the amount of sets redeemed to paper, which in turn decreases the overall supply of cards in circulation.

Large retailers were conscious of the redemption math, and before that tied paper and digital card prices in a sort of symbiotic relationship; if a set was worth significantly more on paper than digitally, you could easily spend the $7.99 to convert digital sets to paper in large quantities and the prices would normalize; but now you’re looking at $27.99 a pop for redemptions, a number that requires much larger discrepancies to be profitable.

Uncertainty

The hardest thing to know going forward is what all these changes mean for us going forward. Were Khans of Tarkir & Fate Reforged prices dampened by the changes in the rotation schedule or key reprints occurring in event decks and clash packs? Will increased entry fees to Grand Prix level events cause players to stop going or will we literally pay any price? How will Grand Prix vendors survive with increased competition from competitors with relatively no overhead while simultaneously paying more and more to set up at events?

One of  the things that made #mtgfinance so appealing in the past was the ability to capitalize on predictable patterns, but so much has changed in the last couple of years that many of those tried and true strategies are proving obsolete. One thing is for certain, the impact of these changes has not gone unnoticed at the highest levels; both Star City Games and Wizards of the Coast have recently acknowledged that significant growing pains are being felt and they’re dialing things back to better understand how to proceed.

While none of these changes have “sky is falling” impact on the game, there is a change in the waters and it might take a few bleached reefs before we begin to understand the impact on the ecosystem as a whole.


 

Grinder Finance – Future Proofing

With the wrap up of Grand Prix Seattle / Tacoma (which is really just Tacoma, I don’t understand why Seattle is even mentioned), many people got another taste of the eternal format, Legacy.  Many players look at the huge turn out and wonder “why aren’t there more Legacy Grands Prix? Look at how many people went to this one!”  While I understand these sentiments from the very vocal Legacy community, I don’t think it’s a good place to invest your future in Magic.

With the announcements from StarCity Games (here), the number of large Magic events is being cut in 2016.  StarCity games often had an open every weekend (including some holiday weekends) but has announced at least 5 weekends off in their first of 3 seasons this year (ending April 10th).  While I won’t analyze the effect of less organized play opportunities as a whole on Magic, I will point out the breakdown of the 9 events.  There are 5 Standard events, 3 Modern events, and only 1 Legacy offering in these 4 months.  This cut back on Legacy in favor of Modern is indicative of a larger trend away from player’s non-rotating format of choice from Legacy to Modern.  There are a lot of reasons why, but it’s been in the numbers for a while.

wasteland

How the mighty have fallen, right?  Legacy cards have been heralded like blue chip stocks.  They have nowhere to go but up, right?  Wasteland is technically an uncommon and not part of the reserve list so it could be reprinted at any time.  Consumer confidence isn’t high on this card and it’s lack of Legacy play that is causing it to fall.

volcanic island rev

Even Revised Volcanic Island (arguably the most important land in the format) has seen a downward trend.  Although it is nowhere the pre-spike value of a mere $150, I can’t see this card rebounding nearly as fast as Modern investments.

volcanic island unl

Unlimited edition Volcanic Islands have faired a little bit better because they’re legal in that niche 93/94 format.  Given the fact that Volcanic Island was accidentally left off the Alpha print sheet (seriously, go ask a vendor if they have an Alpha Volcanic Island), there are far fewer choices for this dual land in this format.  If you want to invest in a dual, this is probably the best one (with scarcity being the only thing that continues to drive it’s price up).

But what about Modern cards? They’re just like Wasteland and can be reprinted.  What is happening to their price tags?  Well let’s take a look at some cards from Modern Masters that were greatly affected by the reprint.

aether vial mm arcbound ravager glimmervoid

If you spent that $300 you could have spent to buy 1 Volcanic Island on Glimmervoid or Arcbound Ravager (cards that were not reprinted in Modern Masters 2015) in June, then you could have doubled your money in October.  The constant cycle of reprints is pushing the oldest cards to the front of the top gainers page each year.

The ease of turning Standard cards into Modern cards has never been higher with each set adding a few important cards to a Modern deck.  In fact, if you own the Standard Atarka Red deck right now you also own a minimum of 16 cards for a Modern burn deck.  It’s much easier to make the transition to Modern than Legacy and it’s more easy to support Modern at the LGS level because of sustainable reprints.

That being said, I’m not trying to take a shot at Legacy as a format.  I’m just voicing my concerns for continuing to hold cards that are highly influenced by their play in Legacy.  I think there are a number of ways Legacy can evolve as a format to allow for better game play and increased interest but I don’t think this is the place to explain that.

Upgrading your Trade Binder

What can we learn from Modern Masters to apply to our portfolio at the end of this year?

fulminator

This is my go-to target for an easy double up.  As long as big mana decks like Tron and Amulet Bloom continue to see play, this will have a home.  All it takes is one weekend where Bloom or Tron win to cause a rush to buy Fulminator Mages.  The Shadowmoor Fulminator Mage hit highs of $60 before being reprinted, I can’t fathom a world where this doesn’t get back to $40 again before a reprint.

noble hierarch

In continuing my trend of picking Modern Masters 2015 creatures, I think Noble Hierarch is another all-star that needs to be looked at.  True multi-deck staples will be the quickest to recover.  Noble Hierarch also gets some points for being the mainstay of a relatively inexpensive tier 1 deck, Infect.

spellskite

You know what’s more of a horror than Spellskite’s creature type?  It’s one of few cards that has actually increased in price since it was reprinted.  It eats Kolaghan’s Command like a champ, protects anyone from Lightning Bolts to the dome, gives Tarmogoyf +2/+2, and prevents Twin and Infect from winning pretty much on the spot.  Spellskite is like the perfect passive aggressive significant other that just sits in play protecting you at the potential cost of 2 life.  Anyone that doesn’t have multiple of these will be scrambling for them when Modern events kick into high gear again.

Not everything is gold, however.  I would avoid any cards that got reprinted in both Modern Masters and Modern Masters 2015.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see the trio of Tarmogoyf, Dark Confidant, and Vendilion Clique show up as marquee cards in Modern Masters 2017 (or whenever the next Modern Masters set is).  Some cards that got reprinted as a mythic but are a little more niche are also probably fine pickups.  Mox Opal will be in for a price correction if Ravager and Glimmervoid get printed again.  Karn will likely see a jump if Grove of the Burnwillows is in our near future.

You know what’s a real odd one?

kor spiritdancer

Kor Spiritdancer is probably a pretty decent investment for the near future.  This card has been on an upward trend since the $30+ Daybreak Coronets got reprinted.  Boggles decks are largely a collection of draft commons and Horizon Canopy  so they are a perfect budget option for a lot of players.  At some point, something in the deck has to be worth something and this is probably it.  It’s hard to reprint since the Kor are native to Zendikar and there isn’t an enchantment theme going on like during Rise of the Eldrazi.

 

Final Thoughts

  • I really don’t want to hold onto Sensei’s Divining Tops right now.  If Legacy is ever going to evolve into a format that is enjoyable to the general player base, that card will need to be banned.  It sits on the Modern banned list for similar reasons as to why it will probably eventually get banned.
  • In my opinion, Wizards needs to figure out a way to print creatures that cost more than one and less than eight that provide exciting game play for Legacy to experience any growth.
  • Khans of Tarkir and Fate Reforged cards are at the highest they will be for the next 2 years.  I do not expect any kind of jump in January when Oath of the Gatewatch is released.  Sell accordingly.
  • Expect a shake-up on the Modern ban list prior to the Pro-Tour in January.  Given the heath of the format, an unban seems more likely than a ban.
  • I expect a new Kozilek to be in Oath of the Gatewatch.  If he is as game ending as Ulamog, expect a green Eldrazi ramp deck to be good.
  • I don’t expect the Commander 2015 decks to be a total bust.  If you can pick up Sword of Selves or Command Beacon in trades they should mature well.
  • Next week I will bring you some information from the vendors and artists at GP Atlanta

Commander 2015 Decklists – What Does It All Mean?

The full decklists for Commander 2015 have been published, so the slow trickle of spoilers is over, and now we have the weekend to make moves. It’s a little late to do anything rash, but it doesn’t hurt to be forewarned going into the next few weeks. Let’s talk about what matters and what could happen.

First of all, here are the decks.

“Call the Spirits” AKA Daxos, the Returned

Relevant new cards – Daxos, the Returned ($3), Karlov of the Ghost Council ($3) , Grasp of Fate ($4), Righteous Confluence ($4)

Relevant reprints – Lightning Greaves ($7),  Karmic Justice ($7),  Phyrexian Arena ($10),  Black Market ($12)

Relevant exclusions – Grave Pact ($8), Dictate of Erebos ($2), Phyrexian Altar ($20)

If you were paying attention to my articles, you may or may not be impressed. You may be impressed that I identified Phyrexian Arena and Black Market as likely reprint targets, or you may be not impressed because I identified other cards that weren’t reprinted. Either way, it’s too late to sell off now, and  I have to imagine these cards, especially Black Market, can shake off the reprints.

Star City Games is only charging $6 for Black Market right now and that price is going to go down before it goes up. I’d watch what the price of Black Market does closely. Since a lot of the value of this deck is in reprints and not in new cards, I don’t see speculators targeting this product heavily, which means the price isn’t likely to plummet to much. Black Market was a card I identified as a potential corollary to Wurmcoil Engine, which rebounded nicely after the Commander 2014 reprinting.

Untitled

I think if we see Black Market dip below $5, especially the old border copies, you should trade aggressively for them. The card is insane in EDH and the reprint might help it in the long term because, like it or not, this may be the first time some players see this card and it may alert them to something they need in their deck and didn’t know was real. I’m stocking up around $5, because I want a lot of these for my decks and I was holding off, hoping for a reprint.  I see opportunity here.

Similarly, Star City Games only wants $4 for Karmic Justice right now and that number is also going to go down. While the supply is greatly increased, Karmic Justice’s price wasn’t entirely predicated on scarcity but rather mostly on playability, and more copies won’t entirely mitigate the price. I bet we see Karmic Justice rebound to a price nearly perfectly midway between its future $3 and its pre-reprint price of $7. There isn’t a ton to be made, here, but if you trade for these at $2 to $3 and buylist them for $3.50 in a year, I don’t think you’ll be that upset, especially if you trade away Standard cards that are going to lose their value. I love trading Standard cards away and picking up EDH cards, it’s like getting 100 percent of retail for your cards by shipping to a buylist in a little while.

“Seize Control” AKA Mizzix of the Izmagus

Relevant new cards – Mystic Confluence ($7)

Relevant reprints – Blatant Thievery ($4),

Relevant exclusions – An expensive card

I predicted a Legacy-playable card would be printed to make up a lot of the value of this deck and while they sort of tried with Mizzix’s Mastery, no one is confident that card will go anywhere.

Players seem to be bullish on Mystic Confluence, given that a lot of people consider Jace’s Ingenuity playable and this is that but better. The card simply isn’t good enough to maintain all of the value of the deck. This is going to keep prices mostly from collapsing, but Mystic Confluence might be prohibitively expensive because there isn’t much financial impetus to buy the deck. EDH players wanted something that interacted with artifacts and didn’t get it, and they’re similarly upset at all the $3 cards that are going to be $0.50 from now on.

I think there is opportunity, here. I think Aethersnatch will get a little cheaper before people realize how good it is, but I think it could go up from its current $3 fairly easily. It’s a better Desertion and Desertion flirted with $10 for a while before its second reprinting in Commander’s Arsenal. If Aethersnatch goes below $2.50, I’m going to target it in trades.

Mizzix’s Mastery is very cheap, also. If anyone tries to play this in some sort of Storm deck, it’s going to go way up from its current $2 and people will want them a playset at a time. Luckily for EDH players, no one is going to want Mystic Confluence for Legacy anytime soon, so EDH demand is going to dictate what prices in this deck do.

I wish they hadn’t jammed a Thought Vessel (thoughtlessly) in every deck, because not every deck needs it and a little scarcity could have helped the price do something. Reliquary effects are lazy from a design standpoint and make the game annoying, but no one wants to be the first guy to eschew them, so they’re here to stay.

“Plunder the Graves” AKA Meren of Clan Nel Toth

Relevant new cards – Wretched Confluence ($4), Meren of Clan Nel Toth ($4), Skullwinder ($2)

Relevant reprints – Eldrazi Monument ($10), Eternal Witness ($6), Mycoloth ($4), Lightning Greaves ($5), High Market ($4)

Relevant exclusions – Pernicious Deed ($3), Abrupt Decay ($15), Grave Pact ($8), Dictate of Erebos ($2), Asceticism ($10), Lord of Extinction ($13), Yavimaya Hollow ($10) (unreprintable)

First off, I want to say I bring up Yavimaya Hollow, because it is worth a second look given the new Simic and Golgari decks. It’s on the Reserved List, as I was reminded when I wrote my Golgari article because I never remember to check that. With the card getting more looks as more people build more decks and no more copies coming, that seems like a safe place to park a few Hamiltons.

Speaking of that Golgari article, I do think it’s funny that reading the comments I see Eddie Sárraga say, “Lotleth Troll and not Spiritmonger?” It’s not funny because I was right about both of those things, but because it was a guess, and when I read that comment, I remember thinking, “Crap, they could totally reprint Spiritmonger and then this guy will laugh at me,” which didn’t happen. Spiritmonger wouldn’t have been a terrible reprint, but didn’t really fit the theme of the deck. I picked Lotleth Troll based on it doing color-pie-appropriate stuff since I figured they would build the deck around a Golgari key strength. Spiritmonger is a good “standalone” card, but doesn’t place nice with graveyard shenanigans the way Lotleth Troll does. It wasn’t an actual total guess on my part and was heavily influenced by the logic that the article was predicated upon. Not a bad guess, Eddie, but no Spiritmonger this time.

This deck is heavily valued based on reprints. I don’t see any of the new cards going super nuts and becoming a ton of money, so the reprints are going to be the key draw for buying the decks and will accordingly have a tough time holding value.

We dodged a bullet as Butcher of Malakir got yet another reprinting instead of Grave Pact or Dictate of Erebos, two cards I expect to hold their value and increase dramatically in the case of Dictate. A reprint on Dictate before I can realize any profit from the heavily invested position I am in is a risk, and I took it gladly, but I would just as soon not have it happen. Reprint Butcher all you want. That card costs too much mana and is easier to kill than an enchantment. I mean, sometimes.

‘Wade into Battle” AKA Kalemne, Disciple of Iroas

Relevant new cards – Blade of Selves ($1), Anya, Merciless Angel ($4), Fiery Confluence ($4)

Relevant reprints –  Gisela, Blade of Goldnight ($4), Urza’s Incubator ($6), Lightning Greaves ($5), Taurean Mauler ($3), Sun Titan ($3)

Relevant exclusions – Aggravated Assault ($9), Scourge of the Throne ($9)

I did pretty well with my predictions on this one, nailing giant tribal enabler Urza’s Incubator while I urged people not to hold onto Gisela, Blade of Goldnight and to wait until the spoilers to buy in if they were inclined. I had a few people message me telling me they saved some money by waiting and avoided losing some by shipping these cards, so I feel pretty good. I expected way more spells in this deck. Only nine total cards that aren’t artifacts or creatures? That’s so few. Every deck I see built with this precon in mind is predicated on a Sunforger package, so maybe that’s where we should look for opportunities.

There just isn’t a lot of value in this deck. It could be the worst one, and I think people predicted that would happen when they saw Kalemne spoiled. Ironically, grousing and talking about how the Boros deck would be the worst was people being optimistic. That optimism paid off—Boros is bad. Oh well. The blue and black decks were both pretty bad last time, and they both have pretty staunch defenders.

Besides, if we don’t care, a bad deck could help us. Here’s why. People who like some of the cards or just don’t care about prices will buy the deck because they want to build Boros. If the deck is bad, the stores won’t mark it up above MSRP, making it attractive to buy for people. Then they will jam other good stuff in. More dragons, equipment, and auras to make it more profitable to attack with Kalmne. They may even build with Gisela as the Commander, and that will sell all kinds of singles.

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Foil Sunforger is returning to reality after Tiny Leaders proved that it wasn’t a real format played by anyone. I’m not going to waste my word count saying, “I told you so,” but you all know I absolutely did that. Sunforger on a Kalemne is pretty brutal, and having a Gisela out when you hit them with a Fiery Confluence could be fun. Tutoring for a 12-damage spell is very EDH. The reprinting in Modern Masters 2015 hurt the foil and non-foil prices of Sunforger, but I still think there is upside. The card is too good with Kalemne and the rest of the precon.

The only other opportunity I really see is that I think Blade of Selves is way, way too cheap. Then again, I’ve misjudged EDH equipment as a good buy at $1 before.

Untitled

I still don’t get why this hasn’t caught on.

Still, Blade of Selves is much, much better than Masterwork of Ingenuity and can make some ridiculous board states. I think $1 is a pretty low-risk buy-in point, and if Blade of Selves is still $1 next week, I might look into investing $50 or so.

I don’t see a ton of opportunity here. This deck mostly just smashed $10 cards into $5 cards and they will take a long time to recover from it and that’s too bad.

Look, we’ve come to the one I want to write about.

“Swell the Host” AKA Ezuri, Claw of Progress

Relevant new cards – Ezuri, Claw of Progress ($4),  Skullwinder ($2)

Relevant reprints – Eternal Witness ($6), Forgotten Ancient ($4), Solemn Simulacrum ($4), Bane of Progress ($2), High Market ($4)

Relevant exclusions – Voidslime ($7), Doubling Season ($25)

This deck won’t have a ton of value after the reprints tank, and the new cards seem to be underrated price-wise. I think this deck is going to be purchased for utility and that could create some scarcity and give Ezuri a little upside. I don’t know if anyone wants to build snake tribal, but building around Ezuri seems nutty. The problem is that most of the cards that work in the deck are cheap already. Hydras could see the biggest boost, and I am all-in on cards that double counters.

Contagion Engine survived a reprinting and now that everyone is no longer holding their breath, we’ll either see the non-foil go up or the foil come down or both. Contagion Engine is a card I identified as being great with Simic a long time ago, and it’s still true.

This deck is the best to build around and with a new, mono-green Master Biomancer called Bloodspore Thrinax printed in the Golgari deck, we could see people play with both of those cards. After you get some experience counters on Ezuri, you can dump counters on Biomancer and Thrinax, and all of a sudden your Coiling Oracles and Mystic Snakes come into play as 12/12 creatures. So what if you can’t get more experience counters? Why not proliferate, plebe? Do I have to tell you how to do everything?

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This could easily hit $5 as a result of this new deck if it’s as popular as Twitter seems to think it will be.

I called Orochi Hatchery as my Brainstorm Brewery pick of the week if memory serves. I got blown out by the reprint. I sure hope I said “foil,” but I have a feeling I didn’t. Still, the card will get upside, especially the foil, as the reprint introduces new people to the card and gives them a snake tribal commander that isn’t mono-green for once. I feel like this deck will have the biggest effect on the prices of cards that aren’t in the deck, and I made suggestions about that here in this article and also in this older piece, so check those out for targets.

That’s all I have for you this week. Next week I will brew a bit with the actual cards we got and talk about cards likely to be directly affected rather than speculating on what will be in the decks. This should be fun. We’ll be looking at a ton of decklists, so get ready for that. It will be fun, I promise. Would I lie to you?

PROTRADER: A Reminder Not to Forget about Casual Favorites

What do these cards have in common?

Asceticism Balefire Dragon

Chromatic Lantern Exquisite Blood

You probably cheated and read the article title, so you already have an idea, but I’m going to stubbornly pretend like you’re struggling here so I can post more card images.

Darksteel Plate Parallel Lives

Utvara Hellkite Consuming Aberration

Surely you must what I’m getting at now? (Yes.) No? (Yes.) Here’s a few more hints:

Caged Sun Endless Ranks of the Dead

Increasing Confusion Hellkite Tyrant

“Ah-ha!” I’m imagining you saying. “I’ve got it now!”

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