PROTRADER: PT Khans of Tarkir Block Constructed

By: Travis Allen

I’ve never been one for professional sports. I don’t know if it’s the toxic masculinity that I’ve never felt beholden to that is woven into the fabric of the pastimes, or if it’s instead my distaste for the veiled sycophantic jingoism that manifests as obsessive support, emotional and financial, for a team that owes allegiance to nothing more than your tax dollars. Whatever it is, I have a natural aversion to that particular brand of entertainment. I don’t watch ESPN. I don’t check scores. I don’t keep track of who is injured or what trades may happen. I didn’t even understand people’s exhaustion with Draft Kings and FanDuel until I saw ten minutes of a football game at my girlfriend’s parent’s house and was exposed to just how significant their advertising presence was.

LAS VEGAS - MARCH 19: In this handout provided by the Las Vegas News Bureau, the Mirage Resort Race and Sports Book in Las Vegas is shown crowded with basketball fans during NCAA March Madness Tournament March 19, 2010. in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Glenn Pinkerton/Las Vegas News Bureau via Getty Images)

Along with all the other things that I don’t experience related to professional sports is gambling. Of course, none of you reading this have ever gambled on sports games, because unless you live in Nevada or overseas, it would be illegal, so bear with me and just imagine it’s something you’ve done. Not having bet on games before, I’m unfamiliar with the emotional rollercoaster involved in the activity. Of course, I experience it in some capacity. After all, I bought $60 worth of Wingmate Rocs and Dragon Whisperers. While you could argue that speculation is gambling in its own right, it’s not quite the same. My hopes and dreams for Roc don’t live and die on one play of the game; there is no singular pointed moment in time that holds within it financial victory or ruin.

So when we did a fantasy Pro Tour draft this time around and I found myself sweating the outcome of Finkel versus PVDDR, a match that would determine whether I got second place or fifth, it was a novel experience. I found myself unwilling to watch them play, a behavior I know for a fact I’ve wondered aloud at when I’ve seen others not watch an event they’re financially invested in. I just kept working on the newsletter in silence, peeking at Twitter every thirty seconds for updates. When Finkel was finally victorious and I was locked for second place, a thrilling sensation washed over me unlike anything I get when a spec target quintuples overnight. All in all, it was an exciting experience, and it will be made all the more sweeter when I only need to pay four percent of a $400 dinner bill, rather than 14 percent.

Oh, also, Pro Tour Battle for Zendikar happened this weekend. Right. That’s probably what you would prefer to read about.

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Going Mad – Winners and Losers at Pro Tour Battle for Zendikar

By: Derek Madlem

You placed your bets and now the results are in. Pro Tour Battle for Zendikar has come and gone and while we were robbed of the champion we deserved (Finkel), we did at least find out what we already knew: Jeskai and Abzan are STILL good decks, IMAGINE THAT. Let’s take a look at the big winners and losers in this latest iteration of Standard:

WINNER:

Wingmate Roc

Everyone that had the common sense to buy $2.50 Wingmate Rocs, $1 Crackling Dooms, and $1 Mantis Riders. All of these cards were obviously good and the bulk of us just sat around ignoring them at bulk prices. While we were all excited about the “sure thing” Rattleclaw Mystic, many of us skimmed over proven staples.

This is a great lesson in going with your gut, a good card is a good card…most of the time.

LOSER:

Sorin, Solemn Visitor

Sorry Sorin, Solemn Visitor, nobody loves you. Sorin is one of my picks for this spring’s Duel Deck and put up disappointing results at the Pro Tour, with only six copies total appearing in all of the decks that went 7-3 or better in constructed, Sorin just isn’t the powerhouse we hoped for; filling much the same role (and casting cost) as Gideon, Ally of Zendikar, Sorin just couldn’t compete in that same space.

LOSER:

Narset

Narset Transcendent appeared as a single copy in a single sideboard of a single deck. If there was any doubt about this “do nothing” planeswalker being hot garbage, that doubt should be squashed now. While most of us had the sense to stay away from this one, I’ve witnessed hopeful speculators ask vendors how many Narsets they had followed by the words, “I’ll take them.” Sorry guys, this one’s not paying off any time soon.

LOSER:

Sarkhan

While we’re on the topic of planeswalkers that people went ham on, we’d be remiss if we didn’t talk about Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker. This is another card I witnessed people buying by the stack, at the promise of future wealth. As it turns out, Sarkhan did see actually see some play in the Jeskai decks. But the reality of this is that Sarkhan showing up as a one-of is not going to be enough to push this guy up in price enough. There’s already the reality that Sarkhan has less than six months to live looming on the horizon and he showed up in one of the most opened sets of all time.

WINNER:

Ojutai's Command

Ojutai’s Command has been on a steady march to major contender since the printing of Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy. While Jace was a great reason to run Ojutai’s Command, the real push came in the form of Brian Kibler Outcast. The ability to “flash in” this 1/1 at the end of your opponent’s turn really pushed the envelope on Ojutai’s Command, making it a staple in pretty much every iteration of Jeskai that we saw this past weekend.

There’s a small army of players that bet big on these guys at $1 or less and now they’re looking like prodigies themselves. The lesson we should learn here is that if a spell is one number off from being really good, something is likely going to be printed to make that number work.

LOSER:

BTL

Bring to Light was fun, but it’s time to move on. Remember those sweet four color Siege Rhino decks? Yeah, real cute guys. As it turns out, in long tournaments stacked with skilled players, you don’t really want to be stretching your mana base too thin trying to be cute. This card is already in a downward spiral, shedding 20% in the last week. Soon enough we should be seeing this in the “premium bulk” pile on the buy mats of the world.

WINNER:

Zurgo

Zurgo Bellstriker is basically at an all-time high now, surpassing his initial sell price of $4. This is another card that savvy buyers picked up on in the $1-2 range and now get to dump. The lesson we should be taking away from this is that people like dumb red decks and dumb red cards, unless you’re…

LOSER:

Dragon Whisperer

Dragon Whisperer is a mythic rare that we’ve all eyed coming into rotation as the heir to the throne of key 2-drop in every red deck, but it’s not. While Dragon Whisperer did show up twice as much as Narset, that number still only totals two. We can all let this one go quietly into the dark at this point, there’s not much hope left.

WINNER:

Abbot of keral keep

Abbot of Keral Keep continues to show up in more and more decks. As it turns out, this card is still really awesome (I told you so) and I expect to see it continue to see action across Standard and Modern for the foreseeable future. Abbot has remained relatively stable around $7 for quite some time now, but we’re not going to see too much more Magic Origins being opened / redeemed in the near future so the supply for this guy is probably a lot smaller than most of us realize. This is a great card to pick up as you can as it’s only a matter of time before the price tag starts to quietly tick upwards 1% at a time.

LOSER:

oblivion sower

Saito bought all of these! OMG! While some people smell conspiracy or market manipulation, the reality here is that people in Japan were buying these cards at a much higher rate than we were. Saito was in town and saw that he could buy piles of these for what amounted to his buylist price, so he did. This is how the global Magic economy works folks.

As far as the Pro Tour went, there isn’t much to be said about Oblivion Sower other than it did show up as a single copy in a few sideboards and as a four-of in a single big dumb ramp deck. While I’m not completely counting this guy out yet as I still have to unlock the Crumble to Dust / Oblivion Sower achievement, this card was not the cornerstone of a top secret Japanese ramp deck for the Pro Tour.

LOSER:

ulamog

Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger is in pretty much the same boat as Oblivion Sower except he (she? it?) didn’t show up in any sideboards. While this is good news for the people that want to own Ulamogs, it’s not exciting news for anyone that expected this to be a breakout card or a sweet target to put into play on the cheap with…

LOSER:

See the unwritten

See the Unwritten is a casual card guys, you’re going to have to accept that. Summoning Trap was only played in it’s heyday because you could cast it for free if your opponent countered your Primeval Titan. There was no feeling greater than getting your Titan countered with three Summoning Traps in your hand and just dropping them onto the table with a twisted grin on your face.

If See the Unwritten had been an instant, we’d be having a different conversation all together, but it’s not. See the Unwritten showed up in approximately 0% of the 7-3 or better constructed decks.

WINNER:

dromoka's

In case you missed the memo, Dromoka’s Command was criminally under priced when it bottomed out at $2. We’ve since learned that event decks and clash packs not enough to keep a good card down. With the exception of Silumgar’s Command, this entire cycle has now seen serious constructed play and the flexibility of these cards warrants their inclusion in pretty much any deck that can support the mana requirements. Dromoka’s Command appeared mostly as four-ofs and is going to be vitally useful going forward in the Abzan and Megamorph decks.

WINNER:

Warden of the First

Warden of the First Tree is probably a solid pickup at this point despite being printed in the latest event deck. This small set mythic rare is repping the four-of status and is vital for players looking to apply early pressure. We probably would have seen more of this guy before if Fleecemane Lion didn’t exist, but now that the golden-locked cat is out of the picture, this guy is the premiere badass in the aggressive Abzan builds.

WINNER:

Anafenza

Anafenza, the Foremost is another Abzan all star that put in some work at PTBFZ. Anafenza’s is most powerful against decks featuring Deathmist Raptor or Hangarback Walker because her cursory ability to keep creatures out of your opponents’ graveyards basically shuts off these threats. And if that wasn’t enough, the ability to slow down Dig Through Time and Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy is not irrelevant. Combine all of this with a solid body that seems even stronger in a format with weak removal and the ability to pump other creatures on attack and you have yourself a mythic rare powerhouse poised for takeover.

Winner:

Gideon

Gideon, Ally of Zendikar had a big big weekend. Gideon showed up as a four-of in a variety of archetypes ranging from Jeskai Tokens to Abzan to Esper. Gideon is the man of the hour thanks mostly to the lack of reasonable answers to deal with him, Stasis Snare is not an Oblivion Ring and Ruinous Path is not Hero’s Downfall.

Gideon has carved out a niche as the apex predator of this format and that’s not going to change until we get more cards into the format. If any card is poised to hold it’s price in spite of the massive amounts of downward pressure we’re seeing on BFZ cards, it’s Gideon. We can learn a lot about contextual value from Gideon because it’s likely this card would make a much smaller impact in past formats than it has in this environment, he’s better because so much else is just worse.

LOSER:

Snapcaster Mage

My condolences to anyone that’s forced to play with this hideous iteration of Snapcaster Mage. This is the promo you get for attending the RPTQs this year and it reeks of leftover art from another commission.

Some of you have said that you actually like this art, and I’m here to tell you that you’re wrong. This art is garbage.

But art is subjective.

No, it’s not. Here’s a little experiment you can try at home. Take any red or blue instant and put this art on the card and see if makes sense. SPOILER ALERT: it does. You know why? Because this is generic card art, it wasn’t commissioned to be a Snapcaster Mage…it was commissioned to be whatever random spell they hadn’t made yet.


 

Grinder Finance – The Price of Standard is Too Damn High

price of std

I’ve seen more than one person make this exclamation (not necessarily in those words, but the same sentiment).  Standard prices are out of control!  The price of 7 of the decks in the top 8 of the Pro Tour are between $675 and $800.  The one outlier is the “cheaper” atarka red deck played by Hall of Famer, Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa,  which still has a price tag of $375.  What changed?  Why is everything so expensive?

Mana

Most of the price of standard decks right now is the mana.  The deck that won Pro Tour Magic Origins had a simple mana base, 21 mountains.  When calculating the cost of a deck you can usually leave the basic lands off since they’re essentially free.  What does PV’s deck play? Only 9 of his 21 lands are basic lands.  The other 12 are rare lands, 10 of which are fetch lands.  With the 10 fetchlands being about $20 each on average and 2 battle lands at $7 each, we add $214 to the total cost of the deck before there are any spells in it!  This is obviously a pretty large barrier to entry but there is some icing on the cake.  You will be owning 10 of the best lands ever printed.  There is some value in knowing the fact that your Standard mana base won’t become worth a handful of nickels in the coming months.  Temples from Theros block are worth between $1 and $4 each now, a far cry from the $7-13 they had at their peak of popularity.  What does this mean for the future of fetch lands? It’s hard to predict.  Khans of Tarkir and Fate Reforged are scheduled to rotate out in April with the entrance of the unannounced block code named “Tears”.  Normally I would say that bodes well as their rotation will help ease some of the demand but that is only a few months before the start of Modern PPTQ season.  According to the 2016 PPTQ announcement, Modern PPTQ season starts July 16th (in conjuction with the release of the 2nd set of “Tears” block).  Will people sell their fetch lands only to have to rebuy them in 3 months?  If they do, does the price even budge or are vendors happy to hold them for 10-12 weeks?  There are too many questions that won’t be answered in this first rotation.

Mythics + Rares

Here’s a break down of Paulo’s deck by rarity:

  • Mythics: 3
  • Rares: 24 (12 lands)
  • Uncommons: 23
  • Commons: 16
  • Basic Land: 9

36% of this deck is Rare or Mythics and the other 64% is commons and uncommons.  Let’s compare that to Pro Tour Magic Origins winning list by Joel Larsson.

  • Mythics: 2
  • Rares: 21 ( 0 lands)
  • Uncommons: 26
  • Commons: 5
  • Basic Land: 21

This list is made up of 31% Rares and Mythics and 69% is commons and uncommons.  Even with less commons in this deck, at the time of the Pro Tour it was over $100 less.  What changed?  Rares that are eternal playable hold much higher values.  A lot of the creatures overlap in these lists (Zurgo, Swiftspear, Abbot of Keral Keep, and Lightning Berserker are in both lists), but the inclusion of eternal playable cards pushes it over the edge.  Atarka’s Command is a massive $16 now and Non-blue fetch lands average $15-20 each. That’s eternally playable rares!

Want to see what exacerbates this problem? Let’s break down Ryoichi Tamada’s deck from the Top 8.

 

  • Mythics: 10
  • Rares:  27 ( 17 lands)
  • Uncommons: 21
  • Commons: 12
  • Basic Land: 5

 

His deck is made up of 49% rares and 51% non-rares.  The increased prevalence of Mythic rares that are played as 4-ofs increases demand and cost.  So despite Tamada not taking advantage of some more ambitious Jeskai Black mana bases his deck is just blowing away pre-rotation standard decks.  But it can’t be the rare and mythic count that is the entire reason that decks are so expensive, right?

Planeswalkers

gideon

I so solemnly swear that the Champion of Justice was a mistake.  Gideon, Ally of Zendikar is the real deal.  With 5 decks playing 4 copies it seems his price tag will only continue to climb as the week goes on.  He bears a striking resemblance to another white walker from a year ago.

elspeth suns champion

Elspeth, Sun’s Champion was a dominant force during her stay in Standard and continues to define how good a 6 mana Planeswalker can be.  At the height of her popularity she was over $45 and I don’t expect Gideon to stay any lower.  She saw a decline with the dip ended at the end of December (remember this article: Grinder Finance – Winter is Coming ) and I expect Gideon to bottom out then as well.  What luckily kept Elspeth’s price in check toward the end of her life was the Elspeth vs Kiora Duel Deck.  Gideon probably won’t be in the next one (as it will likely feature 2 Planeswalkers from Khans of Tarkir block), I expect to see him in the following year’s deck.  What can we do now?  Not really a whole lot.  Hopefully people really like more cards from Battle for Zendikar and a second wave of box opening happens.  Unfortunately it seems like most of the innovation started in the SCG circuit and there’s not much innovation left for Standard at the moment.

 

jace

While Gideon looks like he’s giving a heartfelt apology, Jace’s smirk implies something else.  Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy is the product of a whirlwind of beat beats to leave him the most expensive card in Standard in years!

Problems:

  • He’s from a Core set which are traditionally under purchased
  • He’s played as 4 copies
  • He’s played in eternal formats
  • Modern Masters 2015 was released a few months before his set

The end result is not enough people had money to buy Magic Origins product and Jace and Hangarback Walker continue to prop up the set from the bulk bins.  Given the fact that Mark Rosewater has stated the extra costs associated with printing double-faced cards means they are unlikely in supplementary products, I doubt Jace sees any real reprieve from this price point.  I expect Jace to be $100 at Pro Tour Oath of the Gatewatch unless something odd like a Standard banning happens.

nissa ww

This is not the first time a core set Planeswalker has held an unreasonably high price.  Nissa, despite being mostly a sideboard card that is played 1-2 copies was a solid $20-40 card for most of her time in Standard.  Jace being playable outside of Standard means we will likely not see any price drops.

Where do we go from here?

Well, you can play Atarka Red on a budget but it’s unlikely we will see any significant decreases in the price of Standard decks while 8-12 fetch land mana bases are popular.  The icing on the cake is a lot of this money is going toward cards that don’t immediately plummet in value after rotation.

Closing Thoughts

regionalptq_promo_2016

Snapcaster Mage was announced as a the RPTQ promo which means basically nothing will happen to it’s price.  It’s new art (which has been receiving mostly negative feedback) was expected. They have not reprinted any Invitational cards without new art except for time shifted cards (Avalanche Riders and Shadowmage Infiltrator). I expect non-foil copies to only quiver for a moment and foil copies to not budge.  Your Snapcaster Mages will be safe for another year.

li53_questionMark

Speaking of promos, why do we still not know the GP promo for next year?   I want to remain optimistic but  I feel like there is some weird reason we don’t know it yet.  Maybe there won’t be one?  I don’t know for sure.

PTKhans

Don’t have your Khans of Tarkir fetch lands yet?  What are you waiting for?  I don’t expect to see any drop in price when they rotate in April.

Currently played KTK cards are on the rise.  I would look to move anything you’re not planning to use in the next few months now.  Notable increases to the price of Wingmate Roc, Crackling Doom, and Mantis Rider.

Next week I’m planning an article to maximize your Pucatrading.  If you have any questions or concerns please leave them in the comments below or tweet at me @Phrost_ !

PROTRADER: How Much Will the Rotation Change Mess With Prices? (Setting a Baseline)

Alright, alright. Pro Tour Battle for Zendikar is in the books. The new Standard format is here, we know what it looks like, and people want to play. What’s the real price of entering the format?

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