Tag Archives: amonkhet

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: Amonkhet Stock Watch

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There’s a lot of reasons why Amonkhet prices are falling as fast as they are, from Invocations to peak supply to a lack of new toys to play with, considering we’re about to get all of Hour of Devastation and we know a lot about Ixalan already.

With the Hour upon us, and prereleases next weekend, it’s time to take a look at the trajectories of some of these cards and see where they have to go. There are still packs of Amonkhet being opened, and while that’s going to exert some downward pressure, the historical data tells us that most prices won’t fall too much further.

Want some examples? Sure. Let’s start with a rollercoaster of a card: Panharmonicon.

 

So it spiked to $10 right away as people tried brewing midrangey value decks with it, and those were sweet. They were not winners, and Panharmonicon had been trickling down ever since.

I didn’t highlight when Aether Revolt came out. Looking at the graph, can you tell when it did? Maybe you know release dates off the top of your head.

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See that spike in January? That’s when Aether Revolt came out, and there were decks trying to brew with this again, and it tapered off quickly. (I think this card is a steal at $2, which you can find on eBay. Foils at $10 or less are even better value.)

How about something more basic? Botanical Sanctum.

You already know when the second set came out, and you can see how the price barely moved. The demand was pretty steady, until pretty recently when everyone figured out that Marvel was the best deck, and now it’s banned.

 

With this data in mind, let’s look at some Amonkhet cards and see where they might be going.

 

Rhonas the Indomitable ($13 nonfoil/$23 foil/$52 Invocation) – What’s interesting is how little play this is currently seeing in Standard. It’s become a spicy one-of in assorted Collected Company decks in Modern, as a powerful attacker and also another way to use infinite mana if you haven’t drawn the Duskwatch Recruiter. If something comes along to make it good, it’ll spike (generically useful advice!) but barring that, this will continue to trickle downwards and will likely end up at $10 or so.

Gideon of the Trials ($12/$24) – Oh how the mighty have fallen. This was preordering for $40! I hope you’re not preordering anything from Hour of Devastation. Just don’t do it. Haven’t you learned? That’ll be its own article soon.

Anyway, Gideon v6 (I’m counting Kytheon, Hero of Akros) was heralded as an unstoppable force in Legacy, as a combo enabler in Modern, and as a three-mana planeswalker, shouldn’t be underestimated in Standard.

He’s played mostly in Modern now and is making no waves in Standard at this time. He’s going to end up at $8 or less, and hopefully you’ve learned your lesson.

Vizier of the Menagerie ($6/$16) – No one is trying to make this work in any constructed format. This is a casual card, all the way. It started out at $10, and hasn’t fallen very far, and that’s mainly because this is an auto-include in almost any green Commander deck, and that’s absorbing the supply at a pretty good pace. I actually don’t think this will fall any farther, and it’ll stay stable until we get to Ixalan, at which point it might even start trending upwards.

Glorybringer ($4/$10) – You’d be impressed at the number of big hasty beaters who have never had a big price. Thundermaw Hellkite. Stormbreath Dragon. Either version of Kolaghan. And so on. This was $10 at first but the price has stabilized, and I don’t think it’ll go any lower. A pickup of this at $4 (or less!) is a decent one, but I’m not going to get too happy or too deep. Not many decks will seek to run a full four of these.

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Sweltering Suns ($4/$6) – Yeah, take a look at that foil multiplier. I can’t recall the last time foils and nonfoils of a rare were that close in price, but here we are. The card is showing up in a lot of sideboards in Standard, and it’s a fun card to put in your UR control deck. The extra spicy tech in that deck is how Thing in the Ice is going to come down anyway, and live through the Suns. Nothing telegraphs a sweeper like refusing to play a creature into it.

It’s not common for us to see a card slowly rise like this over time. Usually, we see spikes as someone figures it out and does well, but this is getting play here, and there, and in this sideboard, and it’s possibly better in Modern than Anger of the Gods (you want cycling or you want exile, take your pick) but it’s a card that is a good contender to keep going up. Three damage is enough to kill almost everything played before turn three, and if you can get the double red, it’s hard for this to not get at least two creatures. And it cycles!

I’m not advocating buying Sweltering Suns right now. It’d have to go up in price tremendously to be worth it. I would, however, trade for them slowly and hold onto them for a while, because it’s going to be climbing more.

Cliff is an avid Cuber these days, having played far too many Commander games that lasted two hours. He first opened a pack of Revised in late 1994, and has been writing about Magic for longer than he’s been a father. He’s always on the lookout for value or weird ways to play.

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UNLOCKED PROTRADER: Checking in on Amonkhet

It’s been a month and the Pro Tour hype is over, and we are still adjusting and still innovating. I love that mono-black Zombies took it down, but I don’t love that much of the deck is going to rotate in six months. It’s gonna be a good time until then though!

Today I want to go over some of the movements of Amonkhet cards, and how far they might fall.

Gideon of the Trials ($20.69): He didn’t light up anything at the PT, so I’m not expecting much from him right now. We’ve also had hints that the Gatewatch is getting a little overplayed as a set of planeswalkers, so if he’s the only Gideon in the deck, he gets less good.

I do think there’s space for him to be good, we just haven’t seen the control deck that wants him yet. If he lands, and there’s a Fumigate or other wrath waiting to punish the opponent for overcommitting to the board, then I think there’s a whole lot of potential.

I’m not buying now, though, and he’s getting his price cut by a couple of stores. He’s gonna be $15 soon and I think he’ll be $10 by the time we get Hour of Devastation…which is where I’ll be getting in. I’ll be hoping for a double-up when he gets good.

Rhonas the Indomitable ($17.72): Believe it or not, this card is increasing in price even as it sees almost no Standard play. The foil is only 1.5 times more, and the Invocation is about 3x. I think it’s casual demand causing this graph:

I am super impressed that this is rising slightly, when most of the mythics are on a slow decline. Sure, this is good in Commander, but I didn’t think it was this good. I don’t know where this will go, but experience tells me that it should be going down. I definitely am not buying this now, but the rise in price over time is fascinating given how little Standard play it’s getting.

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Vizier of the Menagerie ($8.13): It’s lower than when it was released, and the casual demand has been mostly sated. A creature that helps you get more creatures is always going to have a special place in my heart, especially when it’s half the mana cost of Garruk’s Horde. It’s hit $6 and has crept up a little, but I’d expect that to go back down over the next few weeks. I’d prefer to pick this up in the $3 range, but $5 might be the floor. Very few green Commander decks would skip this card.

Glorious End ($1.82): So in case you’re not aware, there are streamers who can cause a card to spike quickly. This was featured the other day and while the deck didn’t light the league up, it’s closing in on bulk-mythic territory…which is always an intriguing pickup, especially considering how much longer this will be in Standard. When it gets to sub-$1, I’ll be looking to grab a couple of playsets, because when these spike, it’ll be glorious.

Dispossess ($.59): You’d think that with all the vehicles and Marvels and Scroungers running around this would at least be a sideboard card. I’m both surprised and not surprised Lost Legacy saw some play when Emrakul, the Promised End was the Marvel target of choice, but the goal there was to take down the monster, not the enabler. I wouldn’t mind having some of these in bulk storage, but that’s the purest of speculative targets.

Special bonus pick: Fumigate ($1.79): It’s a wrath that catches you back up. Yes, it’s bad against planeswalkers and vehicles but it’s seeing more play now than at the beginning, and lots of people are trying very hard to make UW Control good again. I think eventually they will get there, and I want to have some sub-$2 copies of this handy for when it cracks $5.

Cliff is a father, teacher, and casual enthusiast who recently finished a ‘Busted Uncommons’ cube, which Sol Ring is not in because it’s too busted. His Magic career boasts two PTQ top 8s that were 8 years apart. He whispers to his stack of Prophet of Kruphix every night, telling them they are good boys and their time will come.

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PROTRADER: Price Targets for Amonkhet

Oh do I love the beginning of a set. Prereleases are among the purest tournaments to me, because I don’t know the tricks, the angles, the basics of what to be afraid of. There’s synergies to explore and so much to experience!

I don’t like picking Standard cards when there’s a banning announcement coming so soon, but there’s already some stuff that I’ve noticed and want to trade for soon.

A couple of caveats: First of all, my standing advice remains good: Trade away everything you open at the prerelease, and trade for anything that isn’t in Amonkhet. There’s going to be a big loss in almost all the prices, and picking the one or two cards that go up from here isn’t worth it. Assume it’s all going to lose value, and trade accordingly.

Second, about the price drops: The value loss is going to be real and big and significant. I’m going to give you my price targets, the value that I’m hoping these fall to before I start picking them up in earnest. Panharmonicon never fell to the dollar rare I was hoping for, but Lifecrafter’s Bestiary is surely there.

I’m going to list the prices that we currently have for these cards, but with this still being in pre-order mode, these prices reflect what stores want to get for them.

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Amonkhet Accessories

I love this time of year so very much. We have a new set that we are all drooling over and eagerly brewing with. We are amazed at the cards that are seeing print and we are full of bad predictions about prices. (I’ll get to some of those next week.)

This week, though, I want to look at some cards that I think will have strong potential with the new cards, and hopefully these will gain in value when new decks get played and get some camera time.

Lupine Prototype + Hazoret the Fervent: Is this obvious? Sure. Both of them want the same thing but that’s what we are being pushed to. Embrace it. I don’t think that Noose Constrictor is going to grow in value, though it’s the logical partner for dumping your hand rapidly. Call the Bloodline is another contender, but the Prototype has the best growth potential because it’s a rare you can acquire for very little.

The foils are intriguing, because they are eight times the price of the nonfoil. That indicates to me that either there’s a very high casual demand for the card, or someone is stockpiling foils for future spikes. You can get in on this card for a ridiculously low price, so this is safe even if the combo doesn’t take off.

Anafenza, the Foremost + Rhonas the Indomitable: There’s a surprising number of cards that come pre-loaded with the right amount of power for Rhonas to be active, but this is one of my favorites, given the rise of Abzan in Modern. I’m aware that Anafenza has had some spikes and rises already, but of the cards I want to play with Rhonas, this is a strong one.

An honorable mention has to go to Greenwheel Liberator, as a card that can come down cheap and be big enough for Rhonas. It’s easy to find four-drops that match well with the green god, but early drops are just as important. This is another one that can bump up in price significantly, since it’s under fifty cents currently.

Bloodfury Militant + either of the above: I want to point out that this uncommon is great with both of the above cards. What’s truly special is the lack of sacrifice clause. If you cast this as the last card in your hand, then you’re golden! I want this card to be good, I really do. I’m going to be going after foils fairly aggressively after the first week or two that the set is out, because the value is real. Do I think it’s going to revolutionize a format? Not at all, but this is a lot of card and a lot of potential.

White Sun’s Zenith + Regal Caracal: This is a casual combo, but what a combo it is. The Zenith is a solid card, if a touch expensive to get started, but in Cat decks, it’s awesome and might get cast more than once. We have surprisingly few Cat lords, and giving a boost to size and lifelink at the same time is going to make a lot of Cat cards better.

The Zenith is a very cheap and very good card, and seeing it pick up in value seems like a reasonable thing. Get the card in the range of a quarter or thirty cents, and watch it hit a dollar or more. The foils already have a 10x multiplier, and I would be surprised if there was another foil printing anytime soon. Seeing this foil price double wouldn’t shock me at all.

Black Sun’s Zenith + Nest of Scarabs: Black Sun’s Zenith hasn’t had much of a bump yet even though it got some attention when this card was spoiled. There’s not much better than killing all of their creatures and then getting a swarm of your own, and this is a combo that’s going to have your Commander table both envious and angry.

It’s worth calling out Carnifex Demon and Midnight Banshee as dirt-cheap spec targets that could well spike if Nest of Scarabs becomes a build-around casual card. The Banshee is a true delight to combo together, as the Insect tokens are black and won’t get counters every turn.

Splendid Reclamation + the cycling duals: Yes, this card has already had a spike when these lands were spoiled. It’s not a huge bump, and I think that the card has some room to grow. The graveyard synergies are really strong in this new set, and this is one of the most powerful things you can do if set up properly. I also really like the casual potential of this card, so feel free to stock up.

 

Cliff is a high school teacher, father of two, and newfound Cube enthusiast. While Commander will always be his first love and greatest value engine, long-term foil investments are always going to be his stock-in-trade. He prefers to diversify over a wide range of cards, rather than overload on one, as a box full of Prophet of Kruphix can attest to.

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