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We are three months away from having the old pattern of Standard be gone completely. It’s a new and exciting time, as we try to figure out what effect there will be on our favorite cards.

Let me introduce you to how things used to be:

Do you remember her? Tokens all over, fetches finding battle lands, her sick combo with Wingmate Roc, where you could minus her to kill their Rhinos and keep your birds? How about with Devotion strategies? Remember when you had to have a plan for her?

Elspeth was a staple at first, her price dropping down slowly, but spiking when the new block was released. This is a trend that had been well-established, going back more than a few sets, where the next big set would introduce mechanics or decks that played very well with the cards from the previous sets.

Then, when the rotation was about six months away, the card would begin to lose value, as people got rid of extras and tried to keep no more than a playset. Elspeth was hit extra hard, as her Duel Deck vs. Kiora came out about the time of Fate Reforged.

That’s the old way. What harbingers do we have of the new way?

Go ahead and look up how many GW Tokens builds are playing Hangarback. I’ll wait. It’s a long list. This card is a four-of all over the place, it’s seeing some Modern and even Vintage play, and yet here it is, south of $5 for a card that reeks of value! It’s gone down ever since its release!

Maybe it’s because of Magic Origins, maybe because it’s a rare. There are a lot of factors at play and I am not pretending to have all the answers. One card does not define a trend, but good grief, this is a powerful and commonly-played card to be so cheap and to have consistently fallen in value.

Here’s another card I’ve been watching closely:

Gideon is the first planeswalker in some time to be an automatic four-of, because his emblem is an easy out for extra copies. He is just as ubiquitous as Hangarback, and is a mythic! Despite all that, he is staying stable. The rotation for him is in 2017, so he’s got three sets to create a new pattern.

But will he? I like stability, but what I really like is the chance to go up. Unfortunately, that’s all it is right now: a chance. If there were more time to go, I’d like his chances more, especially as he’s BFFs with Nissa, Voice of Zendikar. That’s a combination I would like to put serious money on, except that the window for profit is a lot smaller.

Avacyn is still being opened. She’s in one pack of Battle for Zendikar and we’ve got three months of EMN-EMN-SOI in front of us. She hasn’t hit maximum supply yet, but she’s so good and played so frequently that you might expect her value to be trending upward. Not at all, though, not at all.

I’m looking around, and I’m seeing a pattern of cards that are fantastic in Standard not growing in price as they used to. I’m not sure if it’s the timing, or increased awareness, or greater supply, but Standard doesn’t seem to have the big gains it used to.

Sure, we get spikes on Demonic Pact when Harmless Offering is spoiled, or Day’s Undoing gets a couple bucks thanks to a new prison-style deck, but those are small and don’t appear to be sticking around. Plus, those are rotating when Kaladesh arrives, and no one is going to buy more than the fewest possible.

So if Standard isn’t where we find the chance of increasing value, where do we look?

Kalitas is not nearly as commonly played as Gideon or Avacyn, yet he’s worth more. He’s a small-set mythic, true, but look at where he’s seeing consistent play that the other two aren’t: Modern.

I’m also paying attention to Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger. He’s golden in Tron, a turn-four play if you get the set plus an extra Tower. Oof.

Want another example? Look at Nahiri, the Harbinger. Same set as Avacyn, played in a lot less decks, worth about $5 more. She’s a two-card combo that takes a little time and has some potential for disruption, but the power, and the price, is worth the attention.

I’m not saying this is the pattern for all time in the future. I don’t have enough data to make that prediction.

What I am doing is keeping an eye on these cards, and others, in order to make sense of things. Maybe Gideon will spike in Kaladesh. Maybe Kalitas falls off the map. We will have to see, but these slow decreases for very good Standard cards may be the new normal.

I think Gideon and Nissa are going to tell me the pattern for the new Standard. If they go up during Eldritch Moon or Kaladesh, and then drop like rocks during Aether Revolt, that would mean the old pattern is still in play, just on a condensed timeline.

What I suspect, though, is that people have learned their lesson about the value of cards as they approach rotation. No one waits to out their extras anymore, and that could mean a whole new pattern to learn.

It’s true confession time: I don’t like to do what everyone else is doing. I’m of the mindset that I prefer to not be with the crowd, and that’s both good and bad about myself. It’s a tendency that often serves me well in terms of Magic finance, because if I’m thinking about things that others aren’t, then there’s the potential for adding value.

This weekend, everyone is going to be agog about Eternal Masters landing and what will happen to those prices. My predictions from the last couple weeks feel okay, and at first blush there might be more of this printed than expected, so prices will be more likely to be low.

We are also about a month away from Eldritch Moon prereleases, so previews and spoilers will be rolling out soon, and that has lots of other people thinking about what will be good when that releases. (And if I hear ‘where Emrakul’ one more time…)

So what am I thinking about? The two other blocks, Dragons of Tarkir/Magic Origins and Battle for Zendikar/Oath of the Gatewatch. The former is going to rotate in about four months, when Kaladesh comes out, and the latter still has a year of legality left in Standard.

Today I want to cover the rotating sets, and next week I’ll give you my ideas on the still-legal ones.

Dragons of Tarkir

Collected Company (now $23)

A lot of Modern decks that used to use Birthing Pod have seemed to migrate over to this, and since it can hit any of the cards for the Melira infinite life combo, it’s a natural fit. The decks that play this almost never have less than a full playset, but there’s a lot of playsets out there. Don’t forget that this was in the Magic Origins Clash Pack, which also had a Dromoka’s Command and a Windswept Heath.

I have a suspicion that this loses a couple of dollars around the time of rotation but not much, and it’s so good in Modern that it’ll start growing before you know it.

September 2016: $17

September 2017: $25

 

Kolaghan’s Command ($13)

This is a card that Modern was made for. This plus Snapcaster makes Grixis a real and powerful deck choice, especially as a maindeck answer to Spellskite and other artifacts. It’s relatively cheap and very flexible, and it’s nearly impossible not to get two cards’ worth of value out of it. I’ve already made good money on this card, but what I can’t get past is that this is already all over Modern and Legacy, and barely there in Standard.

I think that this Command is going to stay stable through rotation and stays that way for some time. Picking them up won’t get you insane value now, but it will be stable and safe.

September 2016: $15

September 2017: $20

 

Atarka’s Command ($8)

There’s a lot of flavors of burn decks in Legacy and Modern. Most of them are no longer straight red, since adding white and/or green gives you extra angles of attack and better sideboard tools. This card can really pile the damage on in builds with multiple creatures, and again, this is a card already seeing a lot more play in non-rotating formats. I think that this starts trending upward very soon, but it’ll plateau because Naya isn’t the default deck.

September 2016: $10

September 2017: $13

 

Sarkhan Unbroken ($5)

The $5 planeswalker rule applies here. This also shows how prohibitive a mana cost can be from format to format, because Jund players were all over Broodmate Dragon, yet Sarkhan, who can make two tokens, saw zero love. I love picking these up now and just waiting. The growth won’t ever be sudden, but it will be there.

September 2016: $6

September 2017: $8

 

Risen Executioner ($4)

This is an expensive speculation target, but hear me out. It’s a mythic lord for Zombies, one of the top tribes for people to play casually. It’s also got built-in recursion, something that everyone enjoys. It’s $4 now out of pure casual appeal, and that is a flashing light signaling long-term growth to me.

I am not as high on the foils, but those are likely to be at least stable going forward.

September 2016: $6

September 2017: $10

 

Magic Origins

Pyromancer’s Goggles ($8)

This is another card that I’ve predicted would spike and made money from, and it’s almost back to those previous levels. It’s pure gold in casual settings, one of the best cards you could have in a Commander deck that likes casting red/multicolored spells. I think this is going to fall down a few dollars, and that’s when I’m going to jump in on them and just wait. Again.

September 2016: $4

September 2017: $6

 

Hangarback Walker ($5.50)

Oh how the mighty have fallen. It’s very hard for this card to not get value just by existing, though the presence of Path to Exile keeps it from taking over Modern. This was in the Event Deck, and that’s an extra few copies, but it’s a fantastic card in Affinity, and thatmight be enough to have it keep value.

I’m sad to say it’s not done falling, but I do feel it’s good enough to still see play, and that will buoy and maintain the price.

September 2016:$5

September 2017: $7

 

Alhammarret’s Archive ($5)

There’s no getting around it: This is seeing no Standard play, and this price is purely doe to casual appeal. As with the Executioner, I want to listen to what the trends are telling me.In this case, they are saying for me to spend $20 or $40 on spare copies, put them in bulk, and just wait.

September 2016: $6

September 2017: $9