All posts by Cliff Daigle

I am a father, teacher, cuber and EDH fanatic. My joy is in Casual and Limited formats, though I dip a toe into Constructed when I find something fun to play. I play less than I want to and more than my schedule should really allow. I can easily be reached on Twitter @WordOfCommander. Try out my Busted Uncommons cube at http://www.cubetutor.com/viewcube/76330

Who Sits The Throne?

I know our eyes are full of new cards, and there’s a wild west going on with actual card availability, so I want to take a moment and look at Throne of Eldraine, a set that has another 16 months in Standard, and make sure I’m aware of what the underpriced cards are.

Traditionally, for the big fall set, the highest price is about one year, or the halfway point, whichever you’d prefer to call it.Let’s look at a couple of examples from recent sets:

Legion Warboss (Currently about $2)

The Warboss dropped to under a buck at release, and took about eight months to get picked up in a deck. At that point, you could have made $7 per copy under ideal conditions, and that’s a lovely feeling for a card you snagged at such a low point. Notice that it’s heading for zero, but it’s a fun card to pair with Goblin Rabblemaster in those sorts of decks in Modern and Pioneer. It’s nice when one creature gets you an entire army.

Vraska’s Contempt ($1)

This card fell to around $5 during Rivals of Ixalan, and then started to rise like mad. By October 2019, they were going for just about $20 each, as the premier removal spell of the format. You’d think four mana was too much, but add a little lifegain (and make sure there’s nothing better around) and you’ve got a winning formula.

So what cards in Throne meet these sorts of criteria?

Murderous Rider ($2 regular nonfoil/$4 regular foil/$3 Showcase nonfoil/$6 Showcase foil)

We got some sweet removal spells in Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths but nothing this universal and multifaceted. The fact that your three-mana instant can kill anything that needs killing and then, whenever you have mana, can be a 2/3 lifelinker is pretty amazing. It’s not a popular metagame card right now, because it’s not green and Wizards decided we needed a year where every overpowered card was Simic. It’s too much value to be this low and I personally have about a dozen nonfoil Showcase stored up, and I’m debating about getting more.

Removal spells tend to be as strong a spec as you can get in Standard, and we’ve had a good line from Hero’s Downfall to Vraska’s Contempt to this one. When the metagame shifts at rotation (farewell to Nissa and Krasis especially!) I would look for this to be ascendant.

Keep in mind that even with a lack of paper tournaments, Rider is the third most commonly played creature in Pioneer, showing up in a wide variety of decks. Always feels nice to buy a cross-format card at its lowest point.

Bonecrusher Giant ($1/$2.50/$2/$3)

This is another one that is pretty mindblowing to me. It’s incredibly ubiquitous, and yet has such a low price. It’s the #2 creature in Standard right now, and the #9 creature in Pioneer. Decks generally play three or four, because it’s cheap interaction when you need it and a beefy body for cheap after that.

I like picking up the nonfoils more, because this is for those who play in paper tournaments, and that goes for the Rider above too. Players like making their deck unique without the literal warping effects that foils can have. This feels like a slam dunk to me, and I hope you’re able to stock up effectively.

Fae of Wishes (50¢/75¢/$1/$3)

This is a bit lower in price because the current demand isn’t there, but we’ve only had a couple of months to get used to wishboards again. Currently, only Fires decks make use of the card, but it’s a very low buy-in for a card that has such a unique effect. We’ve got more than a year to make this card broken as hell, and there’s a very good chance that the cycle of Ultimatums turbocharges the deck. These seven-mana, seven-specific-mana spells are usually terrible draws but the perfect card to tutor for in the right situation.

As ever, I prefer buying the nonfoil Showcases but I wouldn’t fault you for getting in at near-bulk prices on the Fae.

Fabled Passage ($11/$14/$20/$80)

Finally, a card that is in a Challenger deck and the price graph proves the point:

The Challenger decks are out now and represent a minor reprint for the most played nonbasic land in Pioneer and the #2 land in all of Standard, losing out to only Mountain. Eleven bucks is quite the steal, and that’s with more than a year to go in Standard. I do expect these to be present in next year’s Challenger decks, or reprinted in some other set along the way, but there’s a window for excellent profit here, especially with the Extended Art version. Just like foils used to be a safer play (and in this case, still a delightful one) the EA/Showcase is much less likely to be reprinted and therefore a safer place to put value for a while. Grab a few and thank me later.

Arclight Phoenix ($4)

As a bonus, I’m picking a card that is going to rotate and shows even a Challenger deck can’t hold down a good card. Phoenix took quite a hit right before Throne of Eldraine and rallied back wonderfully, but it’s now gliding towards its rotation out of Standard. Phoenix strategies are still very very valid in Pioneer and will have their day again in Modern, and I’m hoping these fall even further. If you’re playing the Phoenix strategy, you’re definitely on the full playset, and as a Mythic, even one with supply bumped a little, you’re looking at a very solid spec.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

First Impressions of Ikoria

We don’t have the entire card list for Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths, but what we do have is most of the big hits.

And goodness me, there are some doozies. We need to talk about what price you’re going to buy these for, and how patient you need to be.

We have to start with the knowledge that this set is going to be opened at a different pace than every other set. Cards are going to be in hand in Asia before they are in the US. The stateside prerelease has been pushed back a month, meaning that there will be a time period where our only supply is international resellers.

That’s a huge disruption in the normal flow of things, which is to be expected in the time of COVID-19. It’s going to mean that prices are not going to drop in the usual way for some time (if they ever do!).

I fully expect that Ikoria will be opened in lesser amounts than the usual set would be. Last year at this time we were getting War of the Spark, which was later impacted by the awesome draft environment of Modern Horizons.

With the pandemic, I don’t have any idea how long it’ll take for us to open cards and have some sense of normalcy. Not many vendors are doing preorder sales, and at the same time, not a lot of players are eager to buy cards that they can’t use in person yet.

I wish I had some sense for how many players are buying right now, but it can’t be high. If you’re looking to spec on cards, I would strongly advise against that. Most things are overpriced right now, and will be until the set is more widely distributed.

For example: 

These lands are instantly known as the tricycle lands, and as the rare cycle in the set should land somewhere in the $5 range.

Right now, on Star City Games:

They are listed as sold out. I don’t know who might have bought them immediately, but I’m sure there’s a few overeager folks out there. Please don’t buy the regular copies at $10.

That’s not to say I don’t love these for longer-term specs. I completely expect these to show up in assorted Modern lists as a one-of, because if you would have fetched for a shockland at the end of turn and not paid two life, you might as well give yourself this flexibility! Plus you can cycle it away late-game if a land isn’t what you need.

The showcase versions of these lands are GORGEOUS, and are instantly one of my favorite specs once we’re opening cards as we normally would. In terms of prices, I expect the normal versions to be $4-$5 (might spike after shocklands rotate from Standard) with the Showcase at $10+ and the foil Showcase a cool $30-$40.

As of Thursday night, we have four of the five Ultimatums (missing only the Temur one, I expect that to be revealed Friday morning) and they are SWEET. The first cycle of Ultimatums was designed before Commander became popular; these five are clearly made with the 100-card format in mind.

Again, I don’t think these are cards you should be rushing out to buy, but they are absolutely my favorite long-term hold in the set. These are purest gold in Commander, where three colors (or more) are all over the place. I know that my five-color The Ur-Dragon deck is going to need a close examination of the manabase and what spells it can support. I surely want to destroy all my opponents’ nonland permanents, or bring back EVERY PERMANENT IN MY GRAVEYARD.

Thank goodness this cycle is only rare and not mythic.

In terms of prices, I don’t think these will be $100 for the Extended Art foil, but $60 seems reasonable. Almost everyone who opens one of these will either put it in their deck or someone will trade it from them immediately. I’ll be surprised if the regular nonfoils get below $2.

There’s two mythics I especially want to address, which have a whole lot of buzz and excitement.

Luminous Broodmoth is good with a whole lot of cards that care about counters, but it’s also just good in a white deck that makes the rest of your creatures come back in case of a Time Wipe. Aggro decks didn’t really need the help, as they are a healthy part of the metagame, but the moth also enables blocks as trades but really aren’t trades. The combo potential is through the roof in Commander, and TCG has preorders for $14 or so. That’s a really tempting price, and very close to what the price will be in a few weeks. If you really want them, I’d say go ahead and get them, but I’m not sure why you have to have them in hand immediately. They definitely aren’t going to spike to $20+ right away, but I could see that happening in a few months.

Kinnan, Bonder Prodigy is a sign that someone at Wizards has an addiction to UG in Commander. There’s a whole series of cards in the last year or so that are truly, powerfully, broken-format-level overpowered. In Standard, there could have been decks with Once Upon a Time, Kinnan, Golden Goose, Oko, Thief of Crowns, Leyline of Abundance, Nissa, Who Shakes the World, and Hydroid Krasis. Toss in Nyxbloom Ancient if you’re feeling spicy. Who cares about a finisher, you’re tapping out and adding a couple hundred mana.

Kinnan doesn’t have any preorder prices up yet, but I fully expect this to be one of the Commanders that causes a whole genre of cards to spike. Sylvan Caryatid would be my first pick for this deck, but even basics like Llanowar Elder or Llanowar Tribe could go nuts. Keep in mind that this isn’t a doubler, just adding one more mana, so Arixmethes isn’t good for four, just three mana. You’re going to see a lot of cards jump, so be prepared to sell into some hype!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Godzilla is Here!

Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths has finally been previewed, and I’d like to take a moment to say thank you to Wizards for waiting until after April 1. If they had started on Mondays as usual, and then we’d seen Godzilla stuff, we might not have believed it.

I’m pretty over April Fools stuff, especially as most of the whole world is trying to stay safe from a worldwide pandemic, but that’s me shaking my fist at a cloud again. 

Let’s dive into what we’ve been given with Ikoria, and where things might be going.

First of all, if you haven’t looked at it, take a moment and read the preview article. Then you should go see the Mechanics article.

The main thing from Mechanics is at the end: There’s going to be ten different Companions, cards that can exist outside of the game and can be cast from the Command zone as long as a condition is satisfied. 

Those conditions are going to restrict deckbuilding, but also empower Commander decks to be 101 cards. Let’s all pause for the poor Elemental Otter, named Lutri, the Spellchaser, who has been preemptively banned from Commander games as it would be too universal and incur no cost, and always give a free card to those decks. Amazingly, this is the first time a card has been banned before its release. Not Griselbrand, not Worldfire, no other card has earned this distinction.

I do think these nine other cards are going to have a small amount of demand going forward. Having access to an additional Commander-type card is pretty great, and the ones that have been revealed are worthy effects. Lutri copied a spell, Keruga, the Macrosage makes you build with things that cost 3+ and then rewards you for exactly that. I can see a lot of UGx decks giving up on two-drops in order to have Keruga starting out ready to go alongside their commander.

We are getting one for each color pair, and the four revealed so far impose a lot of restriction on decks, but time will tell if that’s problematic. They are all capable of being Commanders on their own, or in the 99. 

The much bigger deal is the Showcase versions we’re getting this time around. There’s two categories: 19 cards get a Godzilla treatment, and the common/uncommon cards with Mutate get a comic-book-like treatment. The Godzilla variants go down to uncommon this time, and having two different Showcase styles, plus the Extended Art, means a whole lot to keep track of. 

For example, we’re getting three versions of the UB Companion, Gyruda, Doom of Depths:

I like that the Godzilla variants have a totally different name but then a reminder of the name there at the header, and even if this frame/art style isn’t your cup of tea, this is a crossover. Godzilla collectors are going to want this, as what happened with the My Little Pony set, which was offered for $50 but is now going for $75+. 

Magic collectors and Godzilla collectors are going to intersect here, and on top of that, we’re going to be looking at a severely restricted market due to the virus’s impact on local stores and major online retailers.

There are going to be less copies in circulation, and weigh that against the lower number of people who are able to play. I can’t predict what that ratio will be exactly, but I do feel confident that the most premium versions of cards will command even higher multipliers than the previous Showcase versions.

Additionally, the Theros: Beyond Death gods were a bit underpowered. These are not. The mythics are demanding on a manabase, but holy wow. There’s a 3/5 double strike for four mana. There’s more than one 6/6 for five mana, one of them has flying! All of them can mutate onto/with other creatures and give bonuses when that happens.

Will all of this unseat the dominance of Ramp or the Mono-Red menace? Likely not right away, but I’ll be a big fan of picking these up at the end of Ikoria season in preparation for October’s rotation.

What I really want to buy right now is Ikoria sealed product. I wrote about the appeal of the Prerelease packs, especially early on when no one else has cards in hand, but the Collector Boosters ought to be highly sought after. The low prices on Theros Collector Booster boxes compared to Throne of Eldraine is simply a reflection of Theros’s relatively low power level. Ikoria has a stronger theme (two art styles, actually) and more powerful creatures. Buying the boxes and selling the pieces should be profitable early on, but again, a lot depends on the timing. If you’re getting the boxes in mid-to-late May, when the set has gone on for a while, the premiums won’t be as high.

The ratio of cards made didn’t change much from Theros Collector Boosters, according to the article, and that means the extended-art nonfoils are going to offer some impressive gains when they get adopted into some Constructed formats. These are my new favorite targets, as they tend to be a bit more in price but much much lower in number compared to originals or foils.

One more collector target, and one more link. Wizards sent this set off to the printers months ago, before the current pandemic conditions, and one of the special Godzilla versions was named with a ‘Death Corona.’

They’ve announced that these copies are in circulation, but as reprints happen, they will switch over to the Void Invader naming.

Macabre as it may be, the Death Corona cards are going to fetch higher prices than most other cards with misprints. Too many people will want one of these, and I’d expect the foils to really break the bank. You don’t have to agree, or think it’s appropriate, but the provenance and the cultural significance will make these a lot more sought after, and while we’ll never know exactly how many are out there, it’ll be a reduced number as they switch over. My hunch is that the first few cards will be super overpriced, and then will settle down some. If you’re someone that craves to own a Death Corona card, be a little patient so you don’t pay top dollar.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Delays and Opportunities

Wizards has decided to delay nearly everything about Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths due to the worldwide pandemic. There’s a lot to unpack, including the optimism that in May we’ll all be back to normal.

This is an unprecedented time for us as Magic players, and there’s some financial pitfalls to avoid, and opportunities to be had here. Let’s dive in!

First of all, we need to unpack what a delay in Ikoria means. We know that Wizards had previously allowed stores to plan for and to sell kits that allow players to prerelease at home. That’s pretty unusual, but so is just about all of this situation. 

As one of our members pointed out to me on the MTGPrice Discord, that’s no longer a possibility, with at least one store telling me that they aren’t going to get these kits till May, if they are lucky and other factors don’t pop up. Most of the big stores have slowed or even stopped their operations, and TCG Direct is shutting down until April 17.

That is a lot of cards and merchants being taken out of the loop, and that means a lot less cards in circulation. Granted, demand has tailed off too, given the demands on our income and the job insecurities we face.

The week after a prerelease has always been the time for cards to be at their highest, but now we’re going to have a month, or more, where the amount of Ikoria in circulation is severely curtailed. I fully expect to see a ton of prerelease kits on eBay, but I also expect that market to be scorchingly hot.  Some overseas markets are getting their stuff on time, and some sellers of English kits will pop up, but the demand is going to be pretty high compared to the relatively small supply.

Let’s look at some examples of where cards were in that first week, shall we? Please keep in mind that we chart cards at release, not when they are spoiled/preordered.

Calix, Destiny’s Hand was more than $10 before the set was released. Elspeth, Sun’s Nemesis was also that high. Nightmare Shepherd was $4+. 

It’s true that some cards are worth more now than they were at the time of prereleasing. I can’t anticipate shifts in the meta and if I’d foreseen Heliod’s Intervention as a top EDH pick I’d have bought a brick of them at under $1. I’m not going to worry about missing $10 from a mythic that gets hot if it means I get to sell five rares at $3 each that will be bulk in three weeks.

My goal had been to buy a few prerelease kits from my local store and crack them. Even the rares that will be bulk should go for a few dollars, and the foils should go for a good price too. Because the only available sources for these cards will be this prerelease for that first week, the premiums should be quite high.

With the delay, I’m still trying to get product from my store but I’m also looking online for the kits at a reasonable price. $30 for six packs and a guaranteed foil rare/mythic was solid, but if it’s at $45+ I will decline. In between…we’ll have to see what the previews bring us.

Something I especially appreciate in this time is how I can get the warm feeling of buying from a store that I really want to still be in existence when we’re past the pandemic conditions, and you should help out in that regard as you can. I won’t be surprised to see some stores doing special sales when the American stimulus hits, as those who are stable financially will have the money to spend. In a lot of ways, this is going to mimic what happens during tax return season, a time when duals and other higher-end cards sell a little bit easier when folks are flush with extra cash.

I know that phrase sounds a little absurd, ‘extra cash’ in a time when an unprecedented number of people are filing for unemployment, but that’s how some will react and stores will want to help them spend that money.

As for Mystery Boosters, I’m quite sad that we aren’t’ getting to draft with these in stores. The draft experience is a very fun one, with the right mix of ‘could be anything’ and ‘curated list of cards’ plus ‘some really expensive cards are possible!’ that leads to marathon drafting days if you’re lucky.

Retail edition of Mystery Booster had just started to happen when the shutdowns started, so not a lot is in circulation at this point. I strongly advise you not to buy in on anything Mystery Booster: not foils, not regular, not playtest cards. This current condition is a seller’s market. If you have copies, if you have leftovers, sell, sell, sell! Eventually, stores will be able to open the boxes they have and get the singles price pushed downwards. 

We know from experience that one chase card can cause a whole lot of boxes to be opened. We saw this effect with the Inventions and the Invocation series of Masterpieces during Kaladesh block and Amonkhet block: singles prices were at their lowest due to the chase for the super-premium cards. Mana Crypt isn’t quite there but it’s pretty close, especially given that these are 24 packs to a box, not 36. 

I completely expect the Mystery prices to fall for the foils and the nonfoils alike once stores regain some normalcy. Right now stuff is starting to fall but it hasn’t hit bottom yet. If you’re buying Mystery cards, it’s because you want it for a deck or you’re buying sealed product to draft with. 

Do not attempt to keep sealed product with hopes of reselling for profit. You’re going to be competing with distributor price for quite some time, and there’s better places to park your money. Sealed product hasn’t been a good investment for a while, and Mystery isn’t in short supply. Everything Magic is in short supply right now, and that’s a situation that will eventually change.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.