Let’s talk about rares, baby!

Well, let’s talk about some of the rares. There’s a few worth discussing but mostly, like in all sets, the rares are forgotten except when it’s time to open your draft packs. That’s the only time you’re hoping for something like a Bygone Bishop.

These are prices from TCG preorders, and I’m predicting what the prices will be when Kaladesh arrives. Keep in mind that an old piece of advice rings true this weekend: Trade everything you open. Prices are at maximum this weekend, so even your sweet foil mythic is going to go down. If you opened a foil Olivia, Mobilized for War and traded it opening weekend, that was $30 or so, now at $15. If you want to lock in value, get rid of it all immediately this weekend.

Bruna, the Fading Light ($1.50) – So this is a rare, whereas the other half is a mythic. I’m not sure why that was done but it means that one half of the Meld creature is much more common than the other, and this is a seven drop with not a lot of appeal outside of certain Commander decks. Getting the creature back immediately is good, though. I think this stays around $2, but just like Gisela, I think this being the Meld makes the foil highly sought after, and the foils will be between $15-$20.

Cryptbreaker ($2.50) – I have to admit, I’m super stoked about this card. There’s a lot of Zombies who don’t mind being in the graveyard, but the second ability is really fantastic. The casual appeal is why this card is so high right now, and that will taper down to the $1 range, but I would expect the foils to be in the $5-$7 range.

Distended Mindbender ($3) – I am hesitant about the Emerge mechanic, though it’s a fair way to cheat on mana costs. This offers the potential of discarding two cards and giving you a 5/5, but you already sacrificed a real card to get the 5/5. It’s possible that Kaladesh or the set after offer some amazing value to sacrifice, but until then, I’m skeptical. Bulk.

Eldritch Evolution ($8) – The hype machine is off and running for this card. I think that the price memory will keep this high, even as the number of decks playing it isn’t too numerous. You have to find something gamebreaking with the card, because it is straight card disadvantage. You’re not going to grind people out with this as we used to with Birthing Pod, you’re going to search up a gamewinner. I’ve seen a lot of lists trying to utilize this in many ways, but it’s notable that the preorder price has dropped $2 in the last week. I think this struggles to be a $5 card until it gets broken and then $15 seems easy. Foils are preselling for $28 and that’s right in line with what I would expect after the card breaks a Pro Tour metagame.

Hanweir Garrison ($2.50) – This is intriguing indeed. There are people comparing this to Goblin Rabblemaster, and that’s not unfair. What really makes it shine is how easily this plays with Thalia’s Lieutenant, and please note these tokens don’t go away. I think this price stays right about where it is, and might even go up during the next block.

Spell Queller ($7.50) – This is a hard price for an in-print rare to maintain, even one from a small set. I won’t be surprised to see it dip down to $5 and then climb back up to $10 if it sees lots of play. I have to admit that I’m leery at this price, and I want to see it do well before I move in on it. It’s powerful but it’s two colors, conditional, but it will absolutely win some games. I like what this does to Collected Company mirror matches!

Splendid Reclamation ($2.50) – The foils are preselling for $14 or more, and that’s a huge multiplier. I suspect that is Commander tech, and not necessarily something Modern cares about. I’ve looked, and seen a few murmurs that Legacy Lands decks love this card, but again, I would be leery of buying just on hype. Day’s Undoing for $20+ anyone?

Thalia, Heretic Cathar ($6.50) – Speaking of the CoCo mirror match! If you’ve ever played with Imposing Sovereign or the like, you know making creatures come in tapped is a very powerful ability. It puts them a full turn behind, and in a properly aggressive deck, that’s an enormous tempo play. She is the buy-a-box promo, but as we have seen with cards like Rabblemaster and Sylvan Caryatid, that doesn’t mean cheap. Modern and Legacy decks are absolutely going to try her out, and all this put together means I would expect her price to tick upward to $8 or so, and remain there for a while. When she rotates out in a year and a half, I’m going to want to get a lot of her to store away, because she’s also an amazing Commander card.

While I could take some time and reflect on all the buyout silliness, it’s time to talk about the mythics of the new set. Small-set mythics have a lot of potential, historically, but for almost all of these, the prices are going to go down.

Picking out that one riser is tricky. Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy is the recent example that tells people ‘don’t miss out!’ but I remain content to sell them all immediately and lock in my value.

One thing I want to point out: not only does this set get opened half as much as Shadows over Innistrad, it’s also going to be overshadowed by Conspiracy 2 in late August. I think that there’s a certain number of drafts that would have been EMN-EMN-SOI, but are instead triple Take the Crown, so the numbers in circulation are going to be lower. Not hugely lower, but lower nonetheless.

My predictions are for what the card’s value will be when Kaladesh comes out at the end of September.

White

Deploy the Gatewatch ($4) – It’s hard to argue with what this offers in the right deck. I’ll leave the probability analysis to others.  What I think is that $4 is just right for this off the top, and it ends up being bulk. Foils are intriguing, though, and if they dip below $7 I’m going to go after them for a long-term hold.

Gisela, the Broken Blade ($27) – This price is absolutely too high right now and she’s got a comparison in Archangel Avacyn that just makes her look bad. She’s a strong card, a mini-Baneslayer, but I think she settles in around $10 by the time Kaladesh rolls out. I also don’t see many decks that are going to run her instead of the Archangel, even as she costs less than her boss.

Notably, though, this is a mythic Meld card. I think that the foils on this are going to see a serious multiplier as people chase their own shiny B.F.M. and I will be surprised if the foils go below $50 at any point.

Black

Liliana, the Last Hope ($23) – Now this…this is tempting. Three mana planeswalkers tend to be at least played, and there are some good things going on here. Her plus ability is better than the flipped Jace, Telepath Unbound’s plus. Yes, read it again. That’s until your next turn, not until end of turn as we are used to. Her minus gets you something you already want, or maybe an upgrade if you flip over a more appealing target. Her ultimate is good for, at the minimum, two Zombies per turn, and you’ll get the first two right away.

Liliana is only pick to go up. I think she finds multiple homes and stays between $20 and $30, with real potential to jump very high right away.

Tree of Perdition ($5) – Oh you lovely people that are going to jam this in Standard with Triskadekaphobia. I commend you. I value you, and I want to see photos all over Twitter of this happening. It’s janky as janky can be, and this card is going to be higher than bulk, but only just.

Green

Ishkanah, Grafwidow ($3) – I’m not sure who was clamoring for the Legendary Spider, but congratulations, those people! You’ve given us another bulk mythic. I don’t get why Spider Spawning and Nyx Weaver outrank the three spiders with red in their costs, but whatever.

Blue

Mind’s Dilation ($3) – Seven mana. Does nothing the turn you play it. Wild variance in effect. Possible for your opponents to outmaneuver it by doing nothing or manipulating their library.

All that adds up to a bulk mythic and Commander gold! I can’t wait to play it and get slaughtered for cackling evilly.

Red

Nahiri’s Wrath ($6) – This cannot hit players. I repeat, this cannot hit players. Therefore, at best, it’s a bad removal spell, costing you at least one more card than you’re killing. Potentially, this goes in decks that want to dump their hand, but you have to do so much here. Bulk mythic.

Mirrorwing Dragon ($5) – This is a sneaky-great card. It’s got the ability to spread your good spells out to your whole team, and will spread your opponent’s kill spells to their whole team. It’s got potential, but I think $5 is where it stays.

Colorless

Emrakul, the Promised End ($20) – In a deck that can mill itself effectively, I can see this costing 9 or 8 mana, and that’s when this card is impressive as hell. She is indeed what we were promised, a fixed version that is a real beating. Who cares that they get to take a turn after you use a turn for them, because you cast spells badly, made crummy attacks, and messed with everything.

I think Emrakul doesn’t drop far, maybe trailing down to $15, but the casual demand for her is never going to let the price fall too far. Foils are going to be crushing wallets all over, likely $60+ for the duration.

Decimator of the Provinces ($8) – It’s no Craterhoof Behemoth. It’s going to have the same problem that Overwhelm did: you want all your creatures to be in play and attacking! The Emerge cost means that it’s got a green color identity for Commander, and as such, only some decks can play it. I think this ends up near-bulk, at $3 or so.

Multicolor

Tamiyo, Field Researcher ($26) – Three-color planeswalkers have a rough history. Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker was powerful enough, and could be run alongside Cruel Ultimatum, but was never pricey. Sarkhan Unbroken is awesome, with very good abilities, and sees no play. Tamiyo defends herself well, but the plus ability requires creature combat. Right now, there’s a Bant Humans deck that is set up with the right manabase, but would it be worth it to jam a couple of these and make Collected Company that much worse? I’m doubtful, and I think she ends up at $10.

Grim Flayer ($14) – I think this card is sweet, but it’s got the misfortune of being in the same Standard as Sylvan Advocate. There’s going to be a period where this is legal and the Advocate isn’t, but the Flayer is just so outclassed. This isn’t going to see heavy play, and I’ll be watching to see if this goes too low. My prediction is $5-$7.

Gisa and Geralf ($6) – This is the type of card that is mythic only to save us from awful games of Limited. This is tough to beat in sealed or draft, with a constant flow of card advantage. Relentless Dead has seen a big spike lately, and I think this is why. G&G offer a lot of potential in casual decks as well, and you can’t overlook repeated abilities like this. Financially, though, I think this is never going to be too valuable, with regulars likely a dollar and foils pushing $10, because people love Zombies!

Ulrich of the Krallenhorde ($6) – Angels and saints preserve us, we finally got the Werewolf legend that Commander players have been pining for since original Innistrad. Ulrich is underwhelming to me, though, and I’m not alone. You get a one-turn bonus to power and toughness on the front, and conditional removal on the back. I suppose there will be turn cycles where he flips back and forth, but I think Huntmaster of the Fells is neck and neck here. I expect that this is going to be very cheap, around $2, but the foils will be up to $10-$15 from those who are dying to jam every Werewolf into a hundred-card deck.

One of the things that I haven’t consciously thought about in a while is the range of information sources available to me.

I’ve got a bunch of bookmarks filed away for Magic and I want to share them with you. Not all of them are price-related, but when I’m writing or thinking or getting ready for a podcast, these are valuable resources.

This is not intended to be a comprehensive list, but instead represents what I use most. These give me current information from a range of angles, and I combine that with my experience playing and collecting Magic cards to help me make financial decisions.

I try to share my experience, but I also want to share my sources of information.

Mtgprice.com

Well, let’s start with the best. We aggregate prices, keep track of spikes and craters, offer fantastic collection management tools, but there’s some sneaky-good stuff you might not notice.

For instance, if you use us on mobile while trading, the price is in the title of the page, so if you look at your history you’ll see every card you looked up.

Also, we have the easiest screen for comparing prices of different versions. Lots of places are going to make you click once or twice more, whereas we just give it all to you. You’re welcome.
Tcgplayer

Since TCGplayer switched over to letting individuals sell cards, it’s different than it once was. Instead of being an aggregator, it’s like a reverse eBay, where people list their lowest acceptable prices.

One of the things TCG is good for is seeing how many copies are left to be easily accessible. A low supply means it’s easier to move the price, especially when it comes to high-end or collectible cards

Speaking of prices: if stock is super low, it just takes one or two people to move the TCG mid price significantly. For example, foils of Steamflogger Boss. There’s two for $6, one for $30, and then six for about $100. So the TCG mid is listed at $99.99.

Other writers have gone into a lot more detail about why TCG mid shouldn’t be your default value, so be aware of its limitations.

eBay

I like looking at the completed sales in eBay to get another price point. For the example of Steamflogger Boss, there’s only two completed sales, one for $50 and one for $25 in the last month.

So yeah, that $100 price is a myth. Always good to check!

eBay is also one of the main resources I use when trying to price rare or foreign foils. Prices on these can vary widely, and while I’ve looked at international sellers (Hareuya, MCM.eu and such) there’s only so many hoops I’m willing to jump through.

Mtgstocks

This is more than just a compilation of prices going up and down. It’s also very useful for organizing tournament results and article mentions as a factor of spikes. It’s a delight to see that when one deck does well, which cards spike? Which cards is it often played with?

Mtgstocks suffers from TCG manipulation as well, though. (Which is why our ProTrader emails also keep track of supply changes, not just price changes.)

Magiccards.info

Honestly, I’ve had this site bookmarked for years upon years. Not so much for price information, but more for the most helpful search tools around. I don’t remember cards names all the time, and this offers me the best methods for narrowing down the card I’m thinking of.

Also of particular help is that on here, there’s a special color and line for when cards are banned, restricted, or on the dreaded Reserve List. I really hate having to jump to those pages separately, and having it all in one view is incredibly easy.

Mtggoldfish

There’s a delightful amalgamation of information here, from cards to tournament results to articles that mention the cards. This is also one of the better sites for tracking MTGO prices, though I’m not keeping up with that metagame.

EDHREC

Jason Alt refers to this database constantly, and he’s right to do so. This is an easy way to quantify what is and is not a staple, and what cards are most frequently played with other cards.

I personally don’t agree with the philosophy of optimizing a Commander deck. I would rather figure things out piece by piece than have someone spit out a fully combined decklist for me to copy. But to each their own.

If you play around with the Analyze Deck function, you’ll notice trends that tend to lead you to combo-oriented decks. EDHREC is not a resource for innovation, but instead points you to the (usually) degenerate stuff people build. Using this will lead you down that path, so tread carefully.

 

Did I miss some of your favorite sites? Are you someone who values a different perspective? Please, share in the comments or on the forums.