By: Jared Yost

Unless you were on site, you would not have known that Starcity had to split GP Richmond up into two areas of the Richmond Convention Center. One room was the Green and White flights, and another room was the Pink Flight. As you might guess this caused a lot of controversy amongst the tournament attendees. Based on when you signed up for the tournament you may not have gotten to play in the same hall as your friends were. I was assigned to Pink and none of my friends were. Thus I was separated from my group that I came down with for the tournament all day. Despite this I had a really great time and wanted to share my experience with all of you.

What I Played

I went 4-3 Day 1 with UWR Midrange and then dropped after Round 7. Technically my final game Round 7 was a tie however I decided to concede the game to my opponent because we were both X-2’s at that point and neither of us would have made Day 2 with a tie.

Here is my list:

25 LANDS
4 Arid Mesa
4 Celestial Colonnade
4 Scalding Tarn
2 Island
2 Mountain
2 Sacred Foundry
2 Steam Vents
1 Sulfur Falls
1 Eiganjo Castle
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Plains
1 Tectonic Edge

13 CREATURES
4 Snapcaster Mage
3 Grim Lavamancer
3 Geist of Saint Traft
3 Vendilion Clique

19 INSTANTS and SORCERIES
4 Lightning Helix
4 Lightning Bolt
3 Path to Exile
2 Mana Tithe
2 Electrolyze
2 Remand
1 Izzet Charm
1 Boros Charm

3 OTHER SPELLS
2 Batterskull
1 Isochron Scepter

SIDEBOARD
2 Wrath of God
1 Wear / Tear
2 Runed Halo
1 Spellskite
1 Shadow of Doubt
2 Aven Mindcensor
1 Baneslayer Angel
2 Counterflux
1 Damping Matrix
2 Threads of Disloyalty

This list is a facsimile of the deck that made the Top 8 of GP Portland last year and I liked it because I was familiar playing the list and also thought it would be a good choice against the various Affinity and Zoo decks that I foresaw playing against.

Based on the Top 8 I bet most of you are wondering why I wanted to run Wrath of God over Anger of the Gods. I thought about this choice for a long while and still decided to run Wrath over Anger because of Tarmogoyf and the possibility of seeing Thrun throughout the day. Wrath still worked pretty well for me but I never played Pod to test out how good it would be against that archetype.

I don’t want to harp on about my playing too much (since I’m sure you all want to hear about financial analysis) so here is how I did:

Wins:
2x Affinity
1x Mirror (UWR Midrange)
1x Scapeshift (Generic List)
Losses:
1x RG Tron
1x Scapeshift (Primeval Titan version)
Tie (then conceding afterwards):
Faeries

I did not get matched up against Pod, Splinter Twin, or RUG Twin at all, which makes me slightly disappointed since I wanted to see if I could win against those match ups. Luckily I avoided B/W Tokens, Living End, and Bogles, which are my deck’s hardest matchups. I also didn’t play against any random brews so I feel like I was able to get a lot of good playtesting at GP Richmond.

In retrospect, combo was a great choice for the tournament (thus why Pod got five of the top eight slots). However, combo and Affinity weren’t the only takeaways from the weekend. Modern is a wide open format despite the Top 8 results. There are a ton of decks you can play, and similar to Legacy the format rewards people for knowing how to play their deck really well. I was able to win a lot of games by just auto-piloting my deck through the usual motions due to all the interactions I discovered playtesting with it. I would bet the same is true for everyone playing Pod, Affinity, and U/R Twin that made the Top 8. They are all tricky decks to play at the best of times, so knowing your deck really well definitely gives you an advantage over less experienced players.

Card Financial Analysis from the Tournament Floor

Ironic that my tie is to the deck that people were laughing at and calling tier 2. Well, let me inform you – the person that I conceded to did make Day 2. Faeries can still sling some cardboard pretty well and my deck just happened to have a bad matchup against them. Bitterblossom isn’t an $80 card but that doesn’t mean that it is complete garbage. I would still watch out for Faeries pieces to move in the future. Some cards that I saw in the person’s deck that interest me included:

Creeping Tar Pit
Tectonic Edge
Mutavault
Spellstutter Sprite
Cryptic Command
Vendilion Clique

I would bet that out of these Vendilion Clique and Tectonic Edge are the safest in terms of going up in price and then holding onto their price until a reprint.

Based on my own matchups, and in addition to what I was hearing from other players, I want to target the following cards for future growth:

Pod:
Spellskite
Birds of Paradise
Restoration Angel
Chord of Calling

Affinity:
Etched Champion
Glimmervoid
Inkmoth Nexus
Blinkmoth Nexus
Arcbound Ravager

Scapeshift:
Scapeshift
Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle
Primeval Titan

Merfolk (this deck went undefeated Day 1):
Aether Vial
Master of Waves
Master of the Pearl Trident
Lord of Atlantis
Phantasmal Image

On the trading floor, I was able to scrounge through $1 to up to $10 binders for deals. This was completely worth it. I was able to pick up Chain Lightnings for $6 HP, 4 out of the 5 Medallions (every color except for white) for $5 each, Chokes for $0.50, a playset of Scapeshifts for $36, and Japanese foil Myr Enforcer and Frogmite for $2 each. Unfortunately only one vendor had these types of binders but I was still able to get a lot for my money while on the tournament floor.

Everything else cardwise for Modern was totally over priced. One crazy card spike was Runed Halo, which went up to $15. Many dealers sold out of these during the tournament. I myself played two of them because they help my matchup against Bogles and Storm. I saw later that they also went up to $15 online yet I don’t think this price will be sustained. They are great sideboard tech at their best, so unless Torpor Orb is soon to become a $15 card I would not want to be picking up Runed Halos right now. Some of the cheapest deals were coming from Channel Fireball who were selling Celestial Colonnades for $17 each and offering great buylist prices for many Modern staples. I offloaded a bunch of Genesis Waves and Sigg, River Cutthroats to them for $3 each buylist which I thought was pretty good.

You could also find great deals on other products. Troll and Toad was selling Dragon Shield 100 count boxes for $8 each which is 20% off the usual going rate. I picked up a few boxes of these because you almost never see Dragon Shields that cheap.

Surprisingly, the Eternal Witness playmat that I received from GP Richmond is going anywhere from $55 to $80 based on complete eBay listings. If you didn’t do so well at the tournament, take solace in the fact that the playmat and GP Batterskull that you received (which is going for $30 at Starcity and anywhere from $35-$45 on other websites) more than paid for the basic tournament entry of $40.

All in all, it was a great weekend to find deals and discover which Modern cards are currently trending. I will be looking towards picking up pieces of Modern decks I am working on building (like Pod and Affinity) in anticipation of the summer and more Modern tournaments. Modern is a wide open format, so the field could change significantly going into the summer, but I have a good feeling that I will still be playing UWR Midrange going forward. Even though a lot of my games went to time during the rounds of the tournament it is the deck I know best how to play and I believe that this will lead me to more Modern success.

By: Jared Yost

This one goes out to you casual players. You’re the heart of the game and the reason why Wizards has continued to become more and more successful as the years go on.

Let’s face it, without casual demand like players buying individual booster packs Wizards would close their doors sooner rather than later. The demand for the game and its cards cannot be sustained by the singles market alone. Sure, more financially minded players realize that it is a losing game to keep cracking packs in the hope that you’ll score at least three Brimaz, but for many players the act of opening a pack, smelling the cards, and going through each one and even sometimes being surprised by a valuable card in the pack can’t be understated. There is a reason that Magic’s de facto comic strip is called Cardboard Crack. We can all be severely addicted to our hobbies and Magic doesn’t escape this phenomenon.

One of the ways I learned to save money playing Magic was to stop cracking packs since it is one of the most inefficient ways to acquire valuable cards for your collection. As a casual player though, finance is the last thing on your mind. One of the main reasons that you play the game is to crack packs. Cracking packs is so awesome that they created the Limited format based on around it, because even binder grinders and highly competitive players need a way to crack packs other than to just open them. Not you. You’re just fine with crackin‘ ‘em open, and the more the better. What I’m now going to tell you is that there is a way for you to still satiate your addiction while not throwing value out the window, but it isn’t for the faint of heart.

As players, we can capitalize on our own addiction by setting aside a booster box from each set we want to purchase and then later sell them down the road at a profit as sealed product. Now, I realize that the temptation of opening that booster box may be too much for some of you, yet a very clear pattern that has emerged from sealed product is that it is bound to go up in value over the years.

Getting Value from Booster Boxes

Sealed product has a proven history of going up in value and booster boxes are the prime example of this. Setting aside a booster box from each set you want to buy is a great way to pay your way forward in Magic. If you’re going to buy two booster boxes when a set comes out and maybe even get a deal then, why not set one aside in your closet and sell it a few years later when it has doubled or more in value? A lot of people even purchase cases though this is too rich for my blood. Why not set aside two booster boxes, even three booster boxes from a case?

Let’s do the math for Innistrad, which is a fairly recent set and follows this trend. These were the preorder prices for Innistrad before it came out September 30th, 2011:

If we bought a case:

$519.95 + ~$20 shipping = $539.95 total

$539.95 / 6 boxes = $89.99 per box

If we bought two boxes (closer to an actual causal purchase):

($89.75 * 2) + ~$8 shipping = $187.5

• This purchase is more expensive per box (~$93.75 per box) but cheaper overall.

It’s now the current day and we loved drafting Innistrad. We want to do a few triple Innistrad flashback drafts of the set. (None of that Dark Ascension nonsense, we’re pure Innistrad only!)

Now that we know how much this would have cost us when preordering, let’s find out how much it would cost us now:

Holy moly what a difference!

Case:

$1067 per case (which is the only seller, it could easily jump up in price again.)

+ ~$20 shipping = $1,087 total

$1,087 / 6 boxes = $181.17 per box

Two Boxes:

($169.99 * 2) + ~$8 shipping = $347.98

If you could afford the initial purchase up front back in 2011 two booster boxes of Innistrad today was worth 64% of a case if preordered when the set came out! If you could restrain yourself and set aside three booster boxes, you would have recouped 94% of what you originally spent. Not too shabby for basically doing nothing and still cracking three or four booster boxes.

If you bought two booster boxes of Innistrad back in 2011 and then set one aside in a closet until now you could sell it and reclaim 91% of your initial purchase in 2011. The second booster box has practically paid for the first one.

For the more financially minded, this probably seems pretty obvious. “Duh, the set is out of print, of course I can sell boxes at a premium.” What most people don’t realize however is that this is one of the safest ways to make money from Magic. That’s right, even sealed product like booster boxes isn’t off the table when it comes to picking things that gain value. It might take you a while to find a buyer but this is probably the lowest risk call you can make as a speculator that will guarantee you a return. It’s basically the index fund of the Magic world.

Let’s look at Return to Ravnica, which I’m sure most of you are definitely familiar with and see if the trend holds for more recent sets. Here are prices from September 2012:

Back in September 2012, you could preorder Return to Ravnica for basically the same cost as Innistrad (though cases seem to be pricier). I note this because sometimes Wizards will increase their pack price MSRP. The last increase was when packs went from $3.25 to $3.99 MSRP when Time Spiral was released in 2006. Thankfully this has not happened in quite a while, though it makes me feel like they may increase their pack price soon.

Anyways back to the math:

Case:

$535.99 per case + ~$20 shipping = $555.99 total

$555.99 / 6 boxes = $92.67 per box

Two Boxes:

($89.94 * 2) + ~$8 shipping = $187.88 ($93.94 per box)

Again, boxes are slightly more expensive when bought individually because sellers will charge more for shipping individual boxes.

These are the current prices today:

Hmm, they haven’t gone up in value too much. If we go by the lows:

Case:

$565.00 per case + ~$20 shipping = $585.00 total

$585.00 / 6 boxes = $97.50 per box

Two Boxes:

($92.49 * 2)  + ~$8 shipping = $192.98 ($96.49 per box)

From these calculations for Return to Ravnica then and now we can see:

1. It seems like the price has remained stagnant for Return to Ravnica boxes so far since it only went up $3, unlike Innistrad which doubled.

2. Buying Return to Ravnica in case form today is noticeably more expensive than buying it per box if you were to just buy six boxes. Usually individual boxes are more expensive compared to box price per case. I’m predicting this is because the set is currently in a state of flux, where vendors may have lowered their box prices to get them out the door to make room for future product. We can see this with Cataclysm Games, where if you buy six boxes (($92.95 * 6) + ~$10 shipping = $567.7) versus a case ($569.95 + $10 shipping = $579.95) you’re actually saving $12.25.

3. If we preordered a case and saved three boxes, or preordered two boxes and saved one, we have yet to see a significant return on that investment 1 year, 5 months later. We only gained ~$5 per box if we ordered by the caseload and only ~$2.50 per box if we bought individual boxes. This leads me to believe that there is a lot of Return to Ravnica product out there.

We seem to have conflicting evidence. On the one hand Innistrad has gained significant value but on the other hand Return to Ravnica has not. Am I missing something here? Was Innistrad that much more popular than Return to Ravnica? (Well, I do think that triple Innistrad draft is still a popular format at this point and is more popular than triple Return to Ravnica draft (Pack Rat!)). Was Innistrad printed significantly less than Return to Ravnica? Is that two year birthday for a set that important? Maybe a little of all these reasons is why Return to Ravnica sealed product has stagnated.

One reason I’d venture to guess that Innistrad has climbed up in price so quickly is that it has valuable eternal staples like Liliana, Geist, and Snapcaster. Return to Ravnica currently does not contain as many valuable eternal staples.

My best guess though? Not enough time has passed. Given enough time Return to Ravnica will go up in value. If we use the index funds example, you’re looking just to outperform the market, not become the next penny stock mega winner. (That is, pick up a random $0.20 rare and hope that it spikes to $10+.) There is no doubt in my mind that Return to Ravnica is a very popular set and I am sure in time this will become evident as the price of RtR sealed product goes up. It just looks like hitting that 2nd birthday is the important defining characteristic of the price bump for booster boxes.

Getting Value from Other Casual Products

Another way you can tell that casual players are so important is because Wizards has been releasing new products on a more consistent schedule than ever before in their history. Back in the day, we were lucky to get a core set once every two years (which everyone hated because it only consisted of reprints) and the three block sets of the year (one big set in the fall, and two smaller sets spaced out through winter). This lead to a lot of stagnant Magic. It was easy to get bored. This created cycles of people leaving the game then coming back later once more unpopular sets rotated from Standard.

These days more people are coming back to the game than ever and they’re staying. Combine this with the addition of all the brand new players per year and you have a recipe for success. Let’s go over some of the ways that Wizards has catered to the casual crowd:

Commander Decks (Commander 2011, Commander 2013)

Here were the price of Commander Decks in 2011 about six months after they came out:

Here are what they are today:

(Heavenly Inferno is currently ending on auctions at anywhere from $90 for non-English versions to up to $200 for English versions)

Very obvious upward trend in prices. Even if you bought the unpopular commander decks at the time (that is, the decks without Legacy staples in them) you still made out like a bandit if you waited to sell. They were all selling for about MSRP even six months after their release.

This is why a lot of Magic financiers recommended for Commander 2013 to even buy the non-Mind Seize decks. Even though the rest of the decks didn’t seem to have much to offer Constructed formats, casuals don’t give two craps about constructed potential. They just want to attack you with their angels, demons, and dragons as fast as possible. I see no reason why the current batch of commander decks won’t also follow this pattern as they age.

Planechase / Archenemy / Duel Decks (essentially, all the products that MSRP’ed for $19.99)

Archenemy – June 2010 MSRP $19.99

Today’s prices:

Planechase 2009 – MSRP $19.99

 Today’s prices:

Planechase 2012 – MSRP $19.99

 Today’s prices:

Duel Decks

Planechase / Archenemy / Duel Decks Price Analysis

Popular casual products are the single-deck sealed products which are Commander, Planechase, and Archenemy. These products offered more than just decks because Planechase and Archenemy have oversized cards (which also have value if you try to sell them individually) and Commander added brand new cards to the existing card pool. On the other hand, Duel Decks seem to be hit or miss. I think this is because they only consist of reprints and that Wizards seems to have been watering down the most recent ones by not including more powerful spells like the ones found in Divine vs. Demonic or Jace vs. Chandra.

In other words, you shouldn’t pick up extra Duel Decks unless there is something special in them (Demonic Tutor and Counterspell with Jace art are good examples). They take the longest to go up in value and the gains factored in with the time it takes are too long for the profits to matter.

If you’re interested in holding on to extra sealed product for value you want to be looking at picking up Commander, Planechase, and Archenemy (if they do Archenemy again) products. All of these products have evidence showing they go up in value over time.

Casual Players Are Important

Without casual players we would have no one to crack individual packs. Without cracking packs booster boxes would never become valuable. We would also have no one to buy other sealed products that Wizards releases because they look cool or add new aspects to the game in a non-competitive fashion. This would make buying the sealed products Wizards releases a complete waste of money if you’re trying to hold them for value. This clearly isn’t the case. We’re lucky to have such an amazing fanbase behind Magic because without them the game would surely go away. From a numbers perspective, we can see that all it takes to capitalize on Magic’s fanbase is to hold onto a few extra sealed products here or there.

Casual players, you may not realize it but buying these products is itself an investment in the game. Even if you are just buying the products to play with, with no intention of wanting to buy extra to sit on them or make money, my advice to you is to buy what you want as soon as you can afford it. Sealed products are never going to be cheaper than when they first come out, no matter if you’re eyeing something like a booster case or even just considering picking up a duel deck. If you ever have the inclination to help your hobby pay for itself, pick up a few extra sealed products and sit on them. Eventually you can cash them out to cover the costs of buying in even if that is a few years down the road. I believe the evidence that I’ve presented in this article has more than proved that in all cases.

The upcoming Conspiracy set is one of the reasons I’m writing this article. I would definitely be looking to pick up as much Conspiracy as I can and holding whatever I choose not to open. It looks like it is going to be another huge casual hit that will certainly go up in value over time.

By: Jared Yost

Hi all! This week I’m going to skip pro tour coverage (since my articles have to be reviewed a few days in advance of my publication date) and instead focus my article on a topic that I’m sure interests all of you – how do I decide if a card warrants my attention from a financial perspective? This article is going to be a change of pace from my usual format of rattling off individual trending cards that also include minor explanations about what you should do once a card spikes. I am purposely not going to name a single individual card to supplement my reasonings. I don’t want this piece to be a rehash of what I’ve done previously. If I list cards as examples it could influence you in ways that I may not have intended depending on the example. Instead, I am going to give you high level strategies for deciding which cards you should be trying to buy or trade for.

Strategy 1 – Pick a Format and Stick with It

I wouldn’t say that I’m a card price “expert” by any means, but at this point I would say that I have a firm grasp on the concepts that can predict card prices across all of the constructed formats. This is from months of trial and error per format, each time refocusing my efforts on another format to understand the ebbs and flows. 

Everyone starts somewhere. I’m sure you have a particular favorite format that you follow extensively and might even be competitive within. That format for me was Legacy. Unfortunately, the constraints of my current position have bound me in terms of actually being able to attend and keep up with Legacy tournaments, however, before I got into the financial side of things I was an avid Legacy player. It was all I ever thought about. The format didn’t bring me as much success as Standard could have (fewer 50+ person tournaments hosted), but I do have a Top 8 to a tournament that I participated in several years back that was hosted in Philadelphia on a college campus that was not DCI sanctioned. In a nutshell, I enjoy following Legacy activity and have a keen interest in the format from that perspective.

Even though my format of choice was Legacy, in retrospect I still feel that it helped my learning curve just as much as starting with Standard would have when I decided to seriously look into Magic finance. Legacy cards have always been expensive. If you are a serious Legacy player, you know that format staples need to be picked up as fast as you can afford them. Sure, the format is occasionally shaken up by new sets, but the core strategies of the format never change. Fast mana is good. A fast lockdown is good. Cards that deal with 95% of the threats in the format are good. And so on. Being able to find a card with these types of effects at a fair price for the card’s general rarity is what you should be looking to do with Legacy.

I had a budget, and needed to stick with that budget in order to finish Legacy decks I was working on. Thus, I learned an important rule of Magic finance – always trade overpriced cards in newer formats like Standard into more stable formats. I would sometimes get pricey mythics and rares that I would receive in drafts and trade them in for store credit. Once I had enough store credit, I would then get another high price Legacy staple. This greatly supplemented my own funds and over time I created a pretty decent Legacy collection. I have seen my Legacy collection, which I haven’t added that many cards to since my heyday, gradually grow into more value than what I paid for it when I first started playing Legacy. The Standard rotation exists where cards will drop in value, but Legacy never rotates.

For those who know Standard well, they knew much more about capitalizing on the rotation than I did when I first delved into card prices. I eventually learned how to approach Standard rotation, yet starting with Legacy wasn’t necessarily a bad thing. I still learned plenty from Legacy prices. Once I grasped the concepts of Legacy finance, it was pretty easy to transfer those lessons to faster changing formats like Standard. If Standard is your starting point, you will have a nice transition to slower formats because you know that once you find something good you can be sure that it will gain value over time.

Trying to capitalize on Magic finance for every format at the beginning won’t work well for you. Once you become very specialized in one area, you can easily shift many of the lessons learned to another and then add the new observations to your existing knowledge. The first step however is getting familiar with the tournament schedule for your format if it is relevant.

Strategy 2 – Know the Rotation and Season Schedule

Cards that interest me can be completely different depending on what time of year you talk to me. Depending on how Wizards schedules their year, you want to make sure that you are interested in cards ahead of schedule before a lot of other players are thinking about the upcoming format or set release. 

The most obvious example is that three sets rotate out of Standard at once every fall, four if you include the previous core set. What’s hard is knowing what to do in these situations other than dump rotating staples. You need to think ahead a little bit in terms of what types of decks people will be playing once fan favorites are gone. My strategy in this case is to focus on aggro decks, which are the easiest to pilot in an unknown format due to their more simplistic game plan. I find cards that won’t rotate that fit the profile “cause a lot of damage at a low mana cost” and try to pick them up in anticipation for the first few months of the new Standard season.

In terms of seasons, players will generally not be looking for Modern cards if we are months away from Modern season. Picking up Modern staples during the offseason is a good strategy because you will be able to pick them up at pre-spike prices and ensure you aren’t overpaying for cards during the season that could dip in price once the Modern season is over until next year again.

Of course, at set rotations and during seasons you also want to make sure you follow any Pro Tour coverage that accompanies them.

Strategy 3 – Follow the Pros

Though certainly not possible for everyone, if you have the chance you should watch Pro Tour coverage at the beginning of the seasons so that you know which cards the pros are playing the most. You have to be decisive if you are willing to do this. You have to analyze a lot of results within a short time frame if you want to be able to pick up undervalued cards before they spike. Due to the live streaming matches and the fast paced buying on the internet, hot cards are selling out in a matter of hours. If you have access to Starcity premium, you could try seeing which cards are trending from the various authors discussing their strategy before major tournament weekends.

Trust me, this one takes practice. I get the feeling that pros throw around a lot of misleading information in their articles, especially free ones – they may talk a lot about a deck or their testing with a deck but then play a completely different deck during the tournament. Your best bet is watching live coverage, you can’t hide what is public knowledge at that point. Twitter is also great in this regard. You can keep tabs on trending accounts that don’t have a stake in the success of an individual player or team.

Strategy 4 – Determine the Number of Decks a Card is Played In

Once you know the nature of the format pretty well, the set rotation schedule, the year’s seasons, and what the pros are doing, what next? Well, it’s really just a numbers game. Do the numbers for the card add up in my head? 

This strategy is much harder to apply in a format like Standard rather than Legacy, which has a vast library of past and recent tournament results that reveal which cards see play across the most number of decks. In Standard the prices almost always reflect the amount of play the card receives, so no card appears undervalued. Once a card is found to be good in a strategy, or several strategies, the price has already spiked – unless it is a card from the most recent block or set in Standard. These are usually undervalued until rotation, so using what you know from Strategy 2 can help with formulating a plan with this strategy.

Unfortunately with this strategy, card demand these days can sometimes be driven purely by hype and not results. If I see that a card is spiking currently and that it only has one deck that is played in, or even no results outside of an MTGO daily that somebody streamed, I feel much better about missing out on getting them at their pre-spike price. These spikes tend to have a way of settling back down. However, there are two reasons why the card may retain the new price even for several months:

1. Because of the long price memory of players.

2. When a spike happens far enough in advance of a format, we need to wait to see if the hype can hold. (This is true particularly for the upcoming Modern season). The card will retain its price until this time.

In general, if a card is played in two or more decks that have Top 8’s under their belt and there are three to four copies per deck, that really grabs my interest. It will also grab my interest if a lot of hype is being generated about it during a Pro Tour and the deck is performing well within the tournament. I will then check the card’s price and if the price looks good enough for the card’s general rarity and the format I am looking at it would be wise of me to pick up a few copies before others discover how much the card is played.

I have been successful with this strategy from a Modern and Legacy perspective (easy for me to branch out to Modern due to Legacy experience, no rotation makes it easier) but with Standard this strategy is sometimes not as effective.

Why These Strategies?

If I was to describe the four pillars of Magic finance that I use to help guide my card evaluations, I would say these are it. These are the pillars of my financial knowledge that I use to help guide me in decisions I make every day regarding the status of card prices and where they are going.

These strategies aren’t hard and fast by any means, there are always exceptions to any rule. I’ve found that many of the mistakes I’ve made, however, are from directly not following the strategies.

Getting cards because I think they’re cool or will be good in Standard without researching the format. Bad idea.

Getting cards as soon as they come out without taking into regard rotations and schedules. Oh boy…

Getting cards before checking how much actual play they see or have seen in the past. Nope.

Well, you get the picture.

The fact of the matter is, Magic finance is hard. Really hard. I’ve been trying my hand at this for a year and half and I feel like I’m just starting to make headway. It takes a lot of trial and error in order to become even remotely proficient at this. Hopefully my lessons learned, if you will, can reduce your learning curve and make you better at this too.

By: Jared Yost

Magic cards going up in price, you don’t say? I’ve noticed quite a few trending cards over the past week and we’re going to delve a bit deeper to see if the hype circus has come to town again or if these prices have actually corrected themselves.

Legacy

So, uh, it looks like that new $100 price point is going to stick after all for Rishadan Port. As of Friday, Starcity is still sold out of Ports at $100. TCGPlayer sellers are listing them at a minimum of $105 a copy, which means that either a buyout of Port has occurred at the $70 entry point (not likely), or the popularity of decks it is featured in has reached new highs (most likely). A buyout at $70 seems completely unrealistic to me, as the buy-in price is way too high to capitalize on when selling back into the market even at $100-$120 (which is probably where Port will settle in the near future). Foils are still an absurd at $500 – or $1500 if you want a Japanese foil. Just to put that in perspective, foil Polluted Delta’s are around $460. Delta is played in 40% of Legacy decks as opposed to Port which is played in 9%. Based on popularity alone it seems wrong that Port should be more expensive. One reason I can think of is that Mercadian Masques is an older set and the potential for foils to be lost or destroyed is much higher than for Onslaught-era cards. Another reason is that fewer Masques packs were opened over Onslaught since the set was so underpowered compared to the previous Urza’s block.

The rise in popularity of both Death and Taxes and Lands have made Rishadan Port absurdly expensive. I don’t see it coming down from this new high. I guess there is always the small chance of a reprint, since it is within the grace window of Masques through Scourge where the Reserved List does not apply (although at the same time the sets are not present in the Modern format).

Meddling Mage

Meddling Mage has seen a resurgence of play in Legacy due to the popularity of Patriot Aggro (though I believe this is a misnomer since the deck usually only runs 10 creatures, 4 Delver of Secrets, 4 Stoneforge Mystic, and 2 True-Name Nemesis with Meddling Mage in the board), Stoneblade, and Bant archetypes. The mage is typically run as a playset throughout the deck and sideboard combined, so the demand is high when she / he is needed. The upward trending price of $5 seems fair to me because both versions were printed in smaller secondary / tertiary sets. Expect Meddling Mage to retain this price going forward until the next reprint.

City of Traitors

Another land that is taking off. Be honest, are any of you surprised that this land has risen? It has been sitting at around $35-$40 for the longest time and is now correcting in price to a new high of $55-$60. It has always been played in several legacy archetypes like Sneak and Show, Tezzerator, Imperial Painter, and MUD. Only one printing. The perfect factors for a price correction. The new high of $55-$60 will continue to be its price, and in the future I expect City to keep trending upwards. This land is on the Reserved List so they will be only getting rarer and rarer as the years go on.

Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas

With his own Legacy archetype to his name, this version of Tezzeret packs quite the punch in Legacy and could even make waves in Modern if the right deck opportunities present themselves. Right now though, his main format that he shines in is Legacy, and he does so not only through Tezz Control (which also made Transmute Artifact spike), but also Affinity where he can provide the necessary long-term advantage that the deck otherwise sorely lacks. The reprint boogeyman is always a possibility (especially with Planeswalkers because they can so easily be thrown into a Duel Deck), but I doubt we’ll see a reprint of this Tezzeret for quite a while since we already have the original Tezzeret that keeps getting reprinted. He is also from a small set, which means that the new price of around $20 will be sticking.

Modern

Cryptic Command

The premier counterspell of Modern, Cryptic Command has seen another upswing in price due the unbanning of Bitterblossom and the potential for the Fae to be a new fighting force in the format. Cryptic Command has always been sweet in Modern so I don’t see any reason why it would be less than $40 going into Modern season. I’m not sure how much higher this card could go, but I doubt it would be worth it to pick up extras. Get your playset in preparation for Modern season but don’t go out of your way to try and and acquire any extras as I’m not sure if there is any more potential for this go much higher due to the anticipated popularity of Zoo and other new non-blue archetypes.

Bloodghast

Bloodghast is actually relevant in Modern now that Deathrite Shaman is banned. Along with cards like Vengevine, I can already see a new graveyard brew starting to form in the minds of pros and FNM grinders alike. Rather than trying to go deep on something like Vengevine, why not try to pick up some Bloodghasts at the much lower buy-in price of $7? These have the potential of doubling up once Modern season starts if there is even a whiff of a graveyard brew doing well that utilizes him. These types of cards are exactly where I want to be when trying to find undervalued rares, as they aren’t that hard to get into and don’t have much of chance of going down in price. (Dredge is a real deck in Vintage, in addition to the casual popularity of Bloodghast.)

Cavern of Souls

Cavern is starting its trend upwards, which is exactly what I expected. This land is so powerful it’s not even funny. It nerfs blue players in Modern and hoses plenty of decks in Legacy, but most important of all it allows me (and all the other casuals) to play a five color sliver deck without having to worry about having my slivers being countered all the time! So awesome!

But seriously, pick up your Caverns if you haven’t yet. I believe you will come to regret it if you don’t as I don’t see them ever getting any cheaper than they are now.

Aether Vial
Lord of Atlantis
Threads of Disloyalty

I guess people are seriously starting to brew with Merfolk in Modern, as two of its core pieces are trending upwards and Threads continues to spike the closer to Modern season we get. All three are great in the Merfolk deck for different reasons.

Aether Vial is one of the deck’s backbones as it essentially acts as a pseudo-mox that allows you to play your Merfolk at instant speed.

The Time Shifted version of Lord of Atlantis is now nearing $7 which is noticeably more than its white bordered brothers from 4th through 7th edition. I guess having an all black bordered deck is more important to players, so watch out for any time shifted versions of Lord of Atlantis you might see.

Threads of Disloyalty was already known by many to be a great card in Modern, but unbanning Wild Nacatl just made it more awesome in the new format against the many possible Zoo decks Merfolk or other blue decks could face. Expect the $30 it is now commanding to stick until the next reprint.

Standard

Archangel of Thune
Courser of Kruphix

Archangel of Thune has risen in price because of the new centaur Courser of Kruphix and her interaction with landfalling to gain one life in order to pump up your team. I think a lot of people are picking her up in anticipation of someone breaking this interaction, in either a G/W shell or in a Bant shell that may utilize Kiora or Prophet of Kruphix.

Unfortunately since Starcitygames Somerset was canceled last weekend there wasn’t any new data to let us know if the Gruul Aggro deck with 4x Courser that placed second at Nashville is the real deal or not. Continue following Twitter and other hot sources for further updates as the next major tournament weekend comes.

I’m still quite keen on Ephara performing well so be on the lookout for her too in addition to any action these two cards are able to provide.

Commander / Casual

Cataclysm

It appears that one of the most devastating cards in the Commander format is starting to trend upwards in price. What gives? I thought casuals hated land destruction and massive Armageddon–like effects? This upswing might have something to do with the card seeing marginal play in the sideboards of a few Death and Taxes decks in Legacy. (Note: Cataclysm is not on the reserved list – this could be a perfect candidate for the new FTV: Annihilation set coming up.) I would not buy into this card at current price of $10 – I believe it is bound to go down because land destruction is looked upon unfavorably in casual formats and the card really has not seen a lot of Legacy action outside of a few showings as a one or two of in Death and Taxes. Sell into the hype.

Skullclamp

Skullclamp is trending upwards to around $5 per copy. I’m surprised it has taken this long to increase in price – even though it is banned in every format except for Vintage and Commander, it does see an extraordinary amount of play in Commander due to the fact that is the best equipment artifact ever printed for aggro decks. $5 is a fair price for Skullclamp. It has taken this long for it to get to $5 so I don’t expect it to go up any time soon in the future. If you have any extra copies, feel free to trade them out as it is going to take a while for this artifact to make the next price jump. In the mean time though, Darksteel foils seem like a pretty good deal if you can find them for $15.

Exquisite Blood

The casual all-star that never seems to quit going up in value, Exquisite Blood has now reached a new high of $6. Call me crazy, but I feel like this card is the perfect candidate for a core set reprint just like Sanguine Bond. If you like playing with Exquisite Blood, keep your copies and enjoy the fun you will have activating Vizkopa Guildmage’s second ability and winning instantly. If this card means nothing to you, ignore it, as any price increases it makes at this point will only put you behind if you try to out them in the future. Everyone else, look for any extra copies you have and trade them out to pick up other Modern staples that you can play at your shop.

Blightsteel Colossus
Silent-Blade Oni

Blightsteel Colossus has taken the jump to $15 (up from $10 last week, and way up from a low of $4 when it was in Standard) which is not surprising since it is one of the Timmy-ist cards ever created. I mean, look at how awesome that guy is! One hit and you’re dead! No wonder legacy MUD runs a copy or two that it ramps up to, equips a Lightning Greaves to, and goes to town. But we know the real reason why Blightsteel is so high, because of Commander and all the casuals that want to Tinker it out in their 60 card decks. Keep a good watch on Blightsteel; I don’t think it is done rising in price. I don’t think it can’t go too much higher than the the current $15 it commands but with Modern you never know. It could become the win condition of a random Woo Brew again.

On the other hand, Silent-Blade Oni is strictly a casual card with the popular Ninjutsu effect that players love to see from time to time. He has increased slightly to $5 but I would not be trading for extra copies of this guy any time soon. He is strictly a casual card and won’t see much growth in the short term because he isn’t played in any competitive formats. There are better options to trade for that have more potential to go up further.

Wrap Up

Lots have cards have changed across basically every format, and the consensus is that these prices are here to stay with the possible exception being Cataclysm (though I am discovering that price memory is a very strong force within the Magic community which prevents overpriced cards from coming down faster than they should). Expect all the cards I’ve mentioned to maintain their new prices for the foreseeable future, and expect one or two them to even keep trending upwards.