Welcome back to another installment of Mana Math, where I do my best to take the soup of information that Wizards throws at us and try to answer the core question of these packs: How many do I need to open to get the card/cards I want?

Luckily, I can answer that question.

The rest of this content is only visible to ProTrader members.

To learn how ProTrader can benefit YOU, click here to watch our short video.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Yes, dear reader, this is a third superdrop in a six-week period, and there is no sign that this train is slowing down. We were expecting a Superdrop to go with the TMNT set, and here we go with six more sets of cards. 

So let’s talk about the specifics of the superdrop, what the use rates are, and what’s worth buying when it’s available in a week and a half on March 2.

Some overall info: We’re thankfully at the $30 nonfoil/$40 foil price point for these, and there’s no land drop here to compete with the Pizza lands in that bundle. There is no listed promo for this Drop, and the bundle discount is $10 for the all-foil or all-nonfoil, or $20 for the all-in-one drop. Very low discount, but we’re proving to them that we don’t care about discounts. 

For these cards, I’ll be listing the EDHREC number (please remember that EDHREC is useful but tilted towards precons, and the folks who upload their deck are only a small % of the playing population) and the value of any special versions of the card that already exist.

Baylen, the Haymaker (24k as Commander, #22 over last two years, plus 23k as card, raised foil $375)

Felidar Retreat (221k, showcase foil $4)

Master of Ceremonies (42k, promo foil $27)

Second Harvest (179k, SLD foil $11)

Sunforger (68k, pack foils $10-$35)

As always, we get a Lair with a good commander and some of its favorite accessories. This is a decent drop, but nothing is screaming at me. Baylen is a combo commander, very good no matter what direction you go. Don’t be fooled by Master of Ceremonies’ foil price, the nonfoil is still $10 but it is in pretty limited supply and group hugging like this isn’t always a popular strategy. The Second Harvest SLD printing had a dog on it, so that price is a little bumped too.

Loxodon Gatekeeper (7k decks, pack foil $10)

Sakashima’s Student (36k decks, all nonfoils $32 or so)

Throat Slitter (30k decks, pack foil $25)

Guttersnipe (241k decks, promo foil $3)

This Lair looks super cool, but financially, I think this is a trap. Only Guttersnipe has special versions already, and Gatekeeper is from OG Ravnica, and Throat Slitter hasn’t been foil since Betrayers of Kamigawa. That’s two cards from 2005, a long time to build up demand and for foils to drain out. Sakashima’s Student is the headliner, good as a clone, but this was a Jumpstart card then on the List and never put into large quantities. I am leery of this Lair, especially at double the copies of the other Lairs.

Settle the Wreckage (37k, pack foil $6)

Mental Misstep (227k decks, SLD foil $160, promo $175)

Ink-Eyes, Servant of Oni (44k decks, BLB Showcase $11)

Anger (255k decks, SLD foil $9)

Chord of Calling (197k decks, SLD foil $13)

No one cares about Settle, and the three mid-tier cards are intriguing, but aren’t going to light up the world or grow quickly in price. So the question is, how big can this Mental Misstep get, especially as it’s super-banned in Modern and Legacy? The first SLD printing was more than three years ago, in the old era of Secret Lairs printed to demand, and it’s just kept going up ever since. The good news is that it just has to hold at less than half of the other version’s printing to be worth it, so I think this is worth buying.

Deepglow Skate (70k decks, SLD foil $6)

Pirated Copy (14k decks, pack nonfoil $20)

Kediss, Emberclaw Familiar (23k as partner, 101k as card, etched foil $16)

Hardened Scales (369k decks, two showcase foils at $5)

Triumph of the Hordes (99k decks, SLD foil $31)

Another case of ‘is one card worth it’ and I have to say I don’t hate the Lair. Four acceptable cards and then the Triumph, which has the original in New Phyrexia, then a List printing, then the Fortnite copies. Very low quantities over the years, and this is probably going to be worth it, but I am pretty ambivalent about this Lair. 

Delver of Secrets (3k decks, SLD foil $5)

Higure, the Still Wind (21k decks, SLD foil $30)

Species Specialist (40k decks, pack nonfoil $10)

Rampaging Baloths (262k decks, pack foils $5-$15)

Triskelion (28k decks, borderless foil 50¢)

Higure is a great card if you’re doing Ninja/Changeling things, but between the mediocre cards and the art, this is a Lair I’m avoiding. If I get the chance at some cheap Higure copies during Dump Week, I’m in, but I’ve been burned on 80’s nostalgia before and I don’t feel the need to go too wild here. 

So the only Lair I’m actively into is The Last Ronin, so that I can get some Mental Missteps. The rest I can give or take, and honestly, after the last couple Lairs that had a lot more for me to like and the chance to buy TMNT product soon, I think I’m going to skip most of this drop. I don’t expect it the majority to sell out, if the quantities are similar to the last couple drops. My exception is that I’ll try to get some of the Ronin Lairs, and just those, for the fervor when that one sells out. 

As always, I’d love to hear your thoughts and feedback on this Lair and my plan, so don’t hesitate to reach out, especially on the ProTrader Discord. 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

This week, we were given a leak of the five face commanders for the Secrets of Strixhaven decks, and it’s the five characters we know, in the color pairs that are both doing it different yet can still feel the same. We don’t know the stated theme of the decks, and we don’t know what’s in the decks, but the reveal has already caused some spikes and now I want to look at some potential includes. 

Generally speaking, I’d want to wait for the decks to come out before buying, but you may proceed with caution. Reprints aren’t impossible, and even if you have a fancy version, the players might not come out to get your shiny copy. (case in point: foil Flourishing Defenses)

Let’s talk about some Commanders!

Dina, Essence Brewer

Sacrifice! Counters! Black and green does its thing! You can build around either ability and have a grand time.

Kami of Whispered Hopes (promo foil $8) – The Kami both gives you more counters and is a really great target for those counters from Dina’s ability. Should be high on the inclusion list.

Ophiomancer (mh3 foil $1.50) – When you’re doing a lot of sacrificing, you want lots of fodder, and ol’ Ophio has always been great at that. 

Erebos, Bleak-Hearted (Showcase foil $4.50) – Another card that complements Dina nicely, allowing you to get the extra card every time, and Dina’s ability offsets the life loss.

Branching Evolution (PIP EA Surge $13) – If you’re doing the counters thing, do it more.

The Earth Crystal (Borderless Foil $16) – Your deck might have more black cards, but it’s likely you’ll want the bonus counters no matter what.

Commander Planeswalker! Let’s go looking at the passive, because the Spirits don’t get haste, nor do they keep the abilities. Plus there aren’t a lot of good RW spirits to build around. 

Quintorious, Loremaster (MAT special foil $0.50) – There’s a boatload of these on TCGPlayer, and I’m not sure the commander is good enough to get people excited. However, there might be a brick play here, buying them up for two bits and selling to a buylist for $1.50 each.

Squee, Goblin Nabob (MYB2 foil $20) – There’s a Secret Lair foil from the advent calendar that you might want instead, but the Future Sight frame is cool and much, much rarer. Squee is a great setup card for QHC if it stays in play, which is not a given.

Containment Construct (NEO foil $2) – If you’re discarding with the ability, why not get the token too?

Emeria, the Sky Ruin (nonfoils $19) – If you can get enough plains, you get the creature back plus a token!

Sephiroth, Fallen Hero (EA $4) – Make tokens, modify the tokens, keep the loop going. I don’t need much excuse to spec on Final Fantasy cards, either. 

Any Phoenix, any Disturb card, any Escape card, all of these do the thing that Quintorious wants to do, so take your pick. 

I have a Zaxara deck, so I’m well used to broken X spells. To start, you’re going to want lots of +1/+1 counter enablers, but the real meat of the deck is sweet X spells. 

Elementalist’s Palette (EA $5) – I’m hoping for a sweet foil version of this card soon, as if you get it to trigger twice, it gets out of hand real fast.

Unbound Flourishing (SLD foil $15) – Really, all of Calling All Hydra Heads is tempting, but this is the best card for Zimone out of the Lair.

Springleaf Parade (EA $6) – James clued me in to this card, and it does so much that you want to do. X spells often make tokens, and now you get mana out of them!

Doppelgang (FEA $1.50) – It’s a ridiculous mana cost, but this can do things no other card can do. Remember you only get to keep one copy if you pick a legendary creature.

Sporoocyst (Surge Foil $8) – One thing about these decks is that they are super hungry for mana. Getting even two lands off of this is a big help.

Nexos (regular $5) – These and the Surge Foil got bought out hard when Zimone was spoiled, so there might not be a lot of profit left, but if the deck takes off this is an absolutely absurd card. 

Killian will play very similar to Eriette of the Charmed Apple, and we’ve already seen Nurgle’s Rot spike thanks to the new Killian. However, you want to do two things: replay enchantments and have creatures attack with your enchantments on them. It’s plenty possible for you to focus on one aspect of the other, but really, Eriette does it much better. Killian gives one goad trigger, and then maybe you can get something good going on your side too. 

Gift of Immortality (pack foil $14) – This should be a top include for Killian, letting you put the commander and the enchantment into play over and over again. There’s a moment of vulnerability, but exile removal will also make you sad, so you won’t get away with it too much.

Greater Auramancy (WOT anime nonfoil $23) – I think the foils at $60 are tempting, and it won’t take much to move the confetti foils up a good bit, but I am staking a claim on these giving you the best return. It’s pretty easy to imagine these going to $50, whereas the foil doubling to $100 or the confetti hitting $200 is much more difficult. 

Eye of Nidhogg (FEA $2) – There’s a lot of enchantments that give a creature goaded status, and those are all worthy includes, but this one keeps coming back, giving you more cards! Plus there’s not all that many copies on TCG.

Rootha is a tough sell. There’s a lot of cards that will give you tokens for casting a spell, like Chrome Host Seedshark or Manaform Hellkite. Rootha has to be in play at the beginning of combat, with the spell already cast this turn. Casting more than one doesn’t even help you, as you only get one token.

Arcane Bombardment (FEA $6) – It’s convoluted, but it’s got a lot of potential.

Fires of Invention (FEA $2) – I don’t think a lot of Commander players are willing to give up playing on opponents’ turns, but there’s not a lot of cheap ways to start casting spells for free.

Galvanoth (pack foil $1) – Really the perfect complement to Rootha, giving you freebies all over the place.

River Song’s Diary (FEA Surge $3.50) – Someone bought a dozen of these this week, and I think it’s related to Rootha because it’s pretty easy to set up. 

Submerge (The List nonfoils $3.50) – Have Rootha in play, cast free spell, attack for 5 flying. Seems good.

Big Score/Pirate’s Pillage/Unexpected Windfall (bulk) – Three cards that do the same thing, but you need six mana. Cast the spell, get treasures, cast the commander, get a 4/4 flying haste. Not terrible.

Again, these are all specs that could be good, but I want to wait till the decklists are revealed before going deep. Happy building!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.