Evaluating the 2024 Summer Superdrop

On Monday, we get the Summer Superdrop for 2024, and there are six drops we need to discuss. Some details are as yet unknown, but we know the cards and the prices, and from there, we can make some plans. Let’s get to it!

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Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

What I’m Watching in Modern Horizons 3

Modern Horizons 3 is out, and released, and the race to the bottom is on. I can’t recommend buying anything for spec purposes yet, but I’ve got more than a few cards I’m watching out for in the long term. Some of these have been mentioned before, either here, or the ProTrader Discord, or the MTG Fast Finance cast, but they are all good casual cards, popular archetypes, and once the prices settle, are worth picking up.

I’ve listed the current price for the most basic versions of the cards, and these prices will change over time.

Echoes of Eternity (current regular frame nonfoil price $7) – The key takeaway here is that the card works for lots of things, not just Eldrazi, but artifacts too! This doesn’t work on colored artifacts, of which there are many, but with the right deck this is going to do some glorious things. I wouldn’t put it into a Breya deck, but there’s a lot of decks that would use this effect well. Doubling all your artifact spells is pretty damn amazing too.


Chthonian Nightmare ($3) – It’s falling fast because black isn’t energy-based but if you’ve played with the original version of the card you know how busted the effect can be. By itself, it’s limited to creatures that cost three or less. Synapse Necromage combos nicely, giving you a token for every loop through, but you can go a lot wider with cards like Sprouting Thrinax or Anax, Hardened in the Forge. If one of the creatures in your loop makes energy, then the sky’s the limit and you can go off to do just about anything.

Warren Soultrader ($5) – Whenever there’s a zero-mana way to sacrifice creatures, you want to pay attention. Warren here allows for triggers on death, triggers on artifacts entering, triggers for artifacts leaving. You don’t even have to wait, they might have made the Treasures tapped, but nope, you get to go wild. There are a ridiculous number of cards that combo well here, and don’t overlook the creature types. 

Eladamri, Korvecdal ($9) – We have Elvish Piper for one-mana ‘put into play’ and Vizier of the Menagerie for ‘play from the top’ cards but combining them is rather powerful. I don’t like that you need two extra creatures, but this is a good effect that’s otherwise easy to utilize. It’s not as Elf-centric as those players would like, instead being just a good value card. 

Fanatic of Rhonas ($3) – One of the best mana dorks of all time, ramping you into your first four-power early and the turn after that getting you an eight-drop. And then to top it off, you’ve got Eternalize built in, as a way to get some late value and get that big bump right back! This would have been good without that, but now it’s quite impressive. A lot of decks will want to use this right away, and rightfully so.

Springheart Nantuko ($3) – This is another big combo card. Bestow onto something nonlegendary and then landfall gives you a copy of the bestowed thing for two mana! There’s a lot of decks that would play a two-mana creature with Landfall: make a 1/1 and this just gets silly from that point. The landfall cards are already kind of crazy, and this makes them all that much better. I don’t know the combos for this card yet, but I’m sure they are out there and hopefully they don’t take too long to end the game.

Abstruse Appropriation (just about bulk): I might be in the minority here, but I love this card so so much. I like Vindicate/Utter End/Anguished Unmaking as utility spells, but now I get to recast the problem if I want to? Sign me up. Utter End is in 75,000 decks online, and this is strictly better. I’m much more fond of the borderless framebreak art here, with the blinded angel and the pink-rectangle-instead-of-feathers she’s got going on, but I’m happy to wait till that’s a bulk price too.

Nadu, Winged Wisdom ($11) – Given the way in which this can buzz through your deck, getting every land in play, there’s a good chance of bannings. It’s instantly infinite Scute Swarms with any zero-equip and those aren’t even the only ways to set the card off. It’s good in EDH, cEDH, and there’s a lot of Modern decks that want the effect too. So we’ll see how long this survives before something is banned. I’d be selling these hard right now.

Wight of the Reliquary ($1) – Another card that inexplicably says ‘land’ instead of ‘basic land’ this is annoyingly green and therefore ineligible for my Varina deck of Zombies. There’s plenty of ways to abuse a card like this, but there’s also plenty of decks that would just use it for value. This color combo is good at recurring things in and out of the graveyard, and as a Zombie, there’s other interactions that will be awesome as well.

Shifting Woodland ($5) – Easy to see what sorts of combos this sets off, just a land animating itself into not just a creature, but any permanent in the yard. This instantly works with Dark Depths, to name one, but there’s a whole bunch of other things you can do with this. Do note that it’s only your graveyard, but it’s a great way to get something back temporarily.

Spymaster’s Vault ($1) – What makes this card weak is that if a board wipe happens, then you don’t have a target for conniving. I love the idea of some trading happening in combat, and then you connive for 5-6 cards, but the truth is that this is likely a relatively weak card. It’ll get to bulk prices soon.

Medallions ($3) – It’s clear to me that as a Magic boomer, kids these days don’t understand that in my day, we played some terribly broken cards. These cards aren’t just two-mana rocks that produce one color of mana. They just make your deck cheaper! The Mediallions are criminally underplayed in Commander, and while I understand that they don’t make mane of a color, they do allow for double-spell turns that much faster. These dipped in price for Commander Masters and now they are going to drop farther. We’ll see how close to bulk they can get.

MDFC lands (bulk-ish) – Commander decks never play enough lands. We tend to shave lands, because we run mana rocks, dorks, and other acceleration/smoothing methods. If you play 17 lands in a 40 card Limited deck, that’s 42.5 percent lands. So why are you at 35% in your 100-card deck, hmmmm? We’ve got a big stack of useful modal cards, some with two colors of mana and most of them at least useful on the other side. Long-term, I think cards like Rush of Inspiration, Waterlogged Teaching, etc., because it’s the early land when the spell-based deck wants it, or the later game method of digging into the deck. Creature decks are a bit less sink or swim.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

What Does The Math of MH3 Tell Us?

Last week I went through the numbers and the slots and figured out the degree of difficulty for opening the most and least desired variants in MH3. So now that we know how hard it is to pull certain things from a Modern Horizons 3 Collector Booster…now what?

Well, there’s some big ideas we can take away, some comparisons worth making, and just how nuts can the serialized cards be?

As I mentioned last week, all the slots in a CB add up to about 30% to open any fetchland. That tracks with the 28% estimate I came up with three years ago when MH2 came out. We’re going to open a LOT of fetchlands, so let’s avoid buying any of those anytime soon. Go ahead and get personal copies if you want to, just know that the prices are going to head low and stay low for some time, which is what happened to the MH2 fetchlands.

Now, let’s start with the serialized Eldrazi. Then being xxx/250 instead of 500 helps keep those prices high, as it’s done for the Murders at Karlov Manor serialized cards. None of the six serialized cards from that set are super-popular in Standard or Commander, but they are all still near a grand each. That’s with their popularity level, and the price of their packs. The first serialized Eldrazi have sold on Facebook for nearly $3,000 and as the first sales, they get to set the pace. I expect these prices to come down, slowly, but in a few months I think the prices will be closer to $2k. It’s unlikely that they will go much lower than that. 

The foil concept Eldrazi and the foil borderless Kaalia of the Vast each require more than 400 Collector Boosters to be opened, and that’s about $13,000 in packs to get one of any of those. (That estimate comes from $400/box breaking down to $33.33 per pack.) Depending on the popularity of those cards, the price could move a lot. Right now, those versions have the current prices: Kaalia is $60, Emrakul is $130, Ulamog is $140, and Kozilek is $60. All of these have roughly the same distribution, and nearly the same amount of copies in circulation.

Kaalia is the #14 commander all time on EDHREC, and that’s because she’s got two things going for her: 1) there are three different groups of creatures who work well with her, telling you how to build the deck, and that’s always great. 2) Kaalia dates back to the first Commander releases, way back in 2011, and even has an oversized card to boot! There’s a lot of people who’ve built this deck over the years (including me) and the combos are extensive. Master of Cruelties is the big one, but there’s all sorts of additional combat steps to take and Isshin, Two Heavens as One is Kaalia’s bestie.

Kaalia has other premium copies in circulation, and there will be some division in that regard. The Eldrazi, though, are in a season where they are brand new and the hype couldn’t be stronger. Kaalia’s price, despite the renewed interest, will likely fall. I expect the Eldrazi titans, with this art and foiling, to move down in price but much slower. Eldrazi players have to either upgrade their Zhulodok decks, change it to Ulalek, or build a whole new deck. Either way, the new three will be sought after for a while yet. I do think the price comes down eventually, but it’ll take longer.

For Collector Boosters, there’s usually a category or treatment for rares that takes up a large chunk of available slots, but for these boosters, that isn’t the case. None of the special foils are easy to pull, with the ‘most common’ drop being 1 in 110 packs or so for several types of cards (FEA Rares, MH2 Foil Retro Rares, Foil-Etched Rares) in that slot. We’ll see those prices drop, make no mistake, but none of these are going to be rampantly available. I’m expecting a similar pattern for MH3 that we got for MH2: the most premium chase cards are going to hold high prices, and over time, all the others will drift downwards. Especially the nonfoils you’ll get in the Play Boosters, those are going to be all over the place and easy to find.

The super-cheap planeswalkers will come down in price, but much like the Elementals from MH2, I expect them to get high again if they start getting playset-popular. These have been tweaked to not be terribly powerful, as Wizards has learned from the Deathrite Shaman mistake. I want them to be good, but the conditions placed upon them are going to make the cards difficult to flip. Especially given the current meta and the number of packs that are about to be opened, these are going to fall in price. 

There’s going to be a few cards that I can’t wait to buy, and that’s a whole article in and of itself. For now, just know that these cards are going to be opened, are already getting opened, and the prices will reflect that. So far, there’s no one deck/card/strategy that appears to be taking over, but there’s still time for that to be discovered and played. 

Next week, the list of cards I can’t wait to buy!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

The Mana Math of Modern Horizons 3

Welcome back the the Mana Math series, where I break down the odds we’re given for the new set. This time, we’ve got no huge subsets in Modern Horizons 3, but we do have a lot of fun bonus frames and treatments, including 750 serialized Eldrazi Titans. 

Wizards has given us an enormous number of treatments, frames, foiling and rarity, meaning that some of these tables might be a bit intimidating. Buckle up, though, because I did the math and hopefully this is easy for you.

One thing to mention is that Collector Boosters have zero Ripple Foils. Those are reserved for the premium Commander decks, and will command very high prices, given how the deck is selling for $500+ right now on TCGPlayer. There’s no option to open those in any other product, so you won’t see any Ripple here. 

Here’s the breakdown of what’s in a Collector Booster, organized by slots: (note: foil = traditional foil unless otherwise noted)

4 foil commons

3 foil uncommons

1 foil full art Eldrazi land

1 nonfoil retro common/uncommon

1 foil retro common/uncommon

1 foil reg frame rare/mythic

1 Commander card: Foil-etched Commander mythic rare or a non-foil or traditional foil Booster Fun Commander rare or mythic rare

2 nonfoil rares or mythic rares with the borderless, extended-art, or retro frame treatment

1 Traditional foil rare or mythic rare that’s an extended-art, borderless, or retro frame card, or one of the following: A double rainbow serialized Eldrazi, A foil-etched rare or mythic rare, A traditional foil Special Guests mythic rare (10 cards total—4.4%), A textured foil Special Guests Elemental (1.9%) or DFC planeswalker (1.9%). The remainder of this slot has the same content as the non-foil slot above with the percentages reduced appropriately to account for the inclusion of serialized, foil-etched, textured foil, and Special Guests cards.

Let’s go over the 2 nonfoil slots with special frames, which is unusual in one Collector Booster. I’ll go over the odds for one (this will be important in a moment) and review the chances for one pack.

Treatment (# of cards)Percent chance for any card of that category (over the two slots)Percent chance for a specific card of that category (slot odds)Percent chance for a specific card of that category (pack odds)# of CBs to open one specific card from that category (pack odds)
Extended-Art Rare (20)45.40%1.14%2.27%44.05
Extended-Art Mythic Rare (1)1.10%0.55%1.10%90.91
Borderless Framebreak Rare (20)29.60%0.74%1.48%67.57
Borderless Framebreak Mythic Rare (3)2.80%0.47%0.94%106.38
Borderless Profile Rare (10)18.20%0.91%1.82%54.95
Borderless Profile Mythic Rare (5)4.60%0.46%0.92%108.70
Borderless Concept Eldrazi Profile Mythic Rare (3)1.70%0.28%0.57%176.47
Borderless Fetchlands Rare (5)5.70%0.57%1.14%87.72
Borderless Rare Land (5)11.40%1.14%2.28%43.86
Borderless Mythic Rare Land (1)1.10%0.55%1.10%90.91
Borderless Mythic Rare DFC Planeswalkers (5)5.70%0.57%1.14%87.72
New-To-Modern Borderless Framebreak Rare (6)13.60%1.13%2.27%44.12
New-To-Modern Borderless Framebreak Mythic Rare (1)0.60%0.30%0.60%166.67
New-To-Modern Borderless Profile Rare (2)4.60%1.15%2.30%43.48
New-To-Modern Borderless Profile Mythic Rare (2)1.70%0.43%0.85%117.65
New-To-Modern Borderless Mythic Rare (1)1.10%0.55%1.10%90.91
Retro Frame MH3 Rare (incl fetches) (24)28.40%0.59%1.18%84.51
Retro Frame MH3 Mythic Rare (8)5.70%0.36%0.71%140.35
Retro Frame New-To-Modern Rare (2)4.60%1.15%2.30%43.48
Retro Frame New-To-Modern Mythic Rare (1)1.10%0.55%1.10%90.91
Retro Frame MH2 Rare (2)4.50%1.13%2.26%44.25
Retro Frame MH2 Mythic Rare (6)6.80%0.57%1.13%88.24

The slot after the two nonfoil special frames is then foil, with the percentages as given above. A little arithmetic, and now we know that the stuff in the nonfoil slots fill up 78.6% of the special foil slot.

So this means we can take the nonfoil (the two slots before) and multiply those single-slot odds by .786 to get the chance that the foil version shows up in this last slot. I know these tables are long, but that’s the fault of Wizards, who put twenty-seven different permutations of finishes, foils, groups and rarities into this one slot.

Treatment (# of cards)% chance for any nonfoil card of that type (prev slot)% chance for any foil of that type (one slot)Percent chance for a specific card of that category# of CBs to open one specific card from that category
Foil Extended-Art Rare (20)22.70%17.84%0.89%112.09
Foil Extended-Art Mythic Rare (1)0.55%0.43%0.55%181.82
Foil Borderless Framebreak Rare (20)14.80%11.63%0.58%171.93
Foil Borderless Framebreak Mythic Rare (3)1.40%1.10%0.37%272.63
Foil Borderless Profile Rare (10)9.10%7.15%0.72%139.81
Foil Borderless Profile Mythic Rare (5)2.30%1.81%0.36%276.58
Foil Borderless Concept Eldrazi Profile Mythic Rare (3)0.85%0.67%0.22%449.03
Foil Borderless Fetchlands Rare (5)2.85%2.24%0.45%223.20
Foil Borderless Rare Land (5)5.70%4.48%0.90%111.60
Foil Borderless Mythic Rare Land (1)0.55%0.43%0.43%232.56
Foil Borderless Mythic Rare DFC Planeswalkers (5)2.85%2.24%0.45%223.20
Foil New-To-Modern Borderless Framebreak Rare (6)6.80%5.34%0.89%112.26
Foil New-To-Modern Borderless Framebreak Mythic Rare (1)0.30%0.24%0.24%416.67
Foil New-To-Modern Borderless Profile Rare (2)2.30%1.81%0.90%110.63
Foil New-To-Modern Borderless Profile Mythic Rare (2)0.85%0.67%0.33%299.36
Foil New-To-Modern Borderless Mythic Rare (1)0.55%0.43%0.43%232.56
Foil Retro Frame MH3 Rare (incl fetches) (24)14.20%11.16%0.47%215.03
Foil Retro Frame MH3 Mythic Rare (8)2.85%2.24%0.28%357.13
Foil Retro Frame New-To-Modern Rare (2)2.30%1.81%0.90%111.11
Foil Retro Frame New-To-Modern Mythic Rare (1)0.55%0.43%0.43%232.56
Foil Retro Frame MH2 Rare (2)2.25%1.77%0.88%113.09
Foil Retro Frame MH2 Mythic Rare (6)3.40%2.67%0.45%224.52
Foil-Etched Rare (12)9.30%0.78%129.03
Foil-Etched Mythic Rare (10)3.90%0.39%256.41
Traditional Foil Special Guest (10)4.40%0.44%227.27
Textured Foil DFC Planeswalker (5)1.90%0.38%263.16
Textured Foil Special Guest Elemental (5)1.90%0.38%263.16

After reviewing this table, there’s a couple things worth noting.

First, even the commonest foils are not that common. FEA rares, usually something that takes up most of this slot, is still going to be a 1-in-110 packs chance to get a specific card. That’s high compared to other sets with breakdowns like this.

Second, some of these variations are impressively rare (aside from the serialized, which I’ll address in a moment) and difficult to pull from packs that cost around twice as much as a regular set’s Collector Booster. The most difficult pulls will be the eight mythic foil retro frame cards (357 packs), the foil framebreak Kaalia of the Vast is going to take roughly 416 packs, and the three new Eldrazi titans in foil borderless concept frame will take about 449 packs to be pulled. 

Third, I can’t imagine cracking packs for value here. It’s going to be extremely swingy, depending on which cards you pull. With packs being $35 or so each, you’re going to see some packs super pricey and some packs full of the chaff of the set. 

One category that people always want to know about is fetchlands. In Play Boosters, there are several slots that can get you a fetchland, and they add up to just under 9% for any fetchland, from the variety of options available. Worth noting that 2/3 of the fetches pulled from Play Boosters will be nonfoil regular frame, so keep that in mind.

In Collector Boosters, you’ve got five slots that can give you a fetchland, and they add up nicely. About a quarter of CBs will have a foil fetchland, and around 30% will have a nonfoil. There are, of course, packs that open more than one fetchland, and someone will absolutely open a Collector Booster with the full five fetches. Just keep in mind that about half of all CBs will have at least one fetchland. 

Finally, let’s talk about the xxx/250 serialized Eldrazi. Once again, it’s a double rainbow foiling applied to art that already is in use in the set. I strongly wish that they would go back to the March of the Machine idea and give the serialized cards their own art, but I’m not in charge of stuff. They don’t give us an approximate drop rate for these cards, so we’re forced to use an estimate. 

With 750 cards to distribute, we can figure out a relative drop rate and a number of packs. If it’s one per pack, that’s 750 packs in the world. If there’s a serialized in one percent of packs, it’s 75,000 packs. As a reference, the LOTR Holiday Edition had 1.5 million packs and the LOTR main edition had 3.3 million Collector Boosters. I think we’re somewhere in between those, with around two million Collector Boosters printed, and a drop rate of one in 2,666 packs or so. (If you like percentages, that’s 0.0375%.) That’s an estimate based on other data points that we don’t always get. If I get better information, I’ll update this post.

I hope this helps you make clear decisions about your buying, your opening, and hopefully, your profitable selling. If you have questions about my methods, or if you caught an error, please reach out to me on Twitter or in the ProTrader Discord.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY