The new Mystical Archive is coming, and with it, a whole lot of expectations. The first set, way back in 2021, bottomed out under the pressure of lots of cards being opened, but the new set should be free of a lot of those issues, for two main reasons. First, we’re avoiding the whole ‘etched foil that has the same collector number’ issue from the first MA, and second, there are nonfoil Japanese alternate art and Silver Scroll foils, no traditional foils. Very swingy!

However, with the 65 cards of the Archive, I want to go through and figure out what my targets are. None of them are going to be cheap in Scroll foil, but I do want to build my list and see where I’m going. 

Just as a reminder from last week, here’s the drop rates on Silver Scroll foils:

Generally speaking, there will be not a lot of any particular Silver Scroll foil. Even the uncommons will take 250 Collector Boosters to open a single scroll foil, and it gets more difficult from there. Based on how old Mystical Archive cards are rising, it looks like there’s some completionists at work, collecting one of everything. The new rekindles interest in the old, giving us a chance to profit again.

The English versions, both nonfoil and regular, should settle out over time, trickling downwards then starting to rise again, unless they are mega-popular like Rift or Force.

So I want to look at each of these, and based on the EDHREC usage, decide how much I want to prioritize spending on these cards. I doubt the scrolls will ever be cheap, but some are going to be very pricey indeed based on play pattern, rarity, and the drop rate. I’ve also noted if there’s cute characters or animals on the cards. 

Let’s start with the Mythics:

Akroma’s Will – Printed in Final Fantasy’s bonus sheet, this is an excellent opportunity to get some copies on the cheap. The scrolls version is pretty amazing, as the FIC version is busy and a bit hard to read. 

Armageddon – For the hardcore cubers and completionists only, it’ll never be truly cheap but also never too expensive. 

Winds of Abandon – A card people should play more, the only special version is the cartoony SL version, so this should make some waves. 

Cyclonic Rift – Cat Watch, #1 on EDHREC – Force will be the most expensive card in this list, but the combo of being the #1 EDH card plus having a cat in the art is some unholy alchemy. 

Flusterstorm – Niche, but could be expensive. 

Force of Will – Presales are at $1200+ for the scroll foils, so correction downward seems likely. Whatever they get down to, they will rebound fast. It takes a whole lot of opening to snag one, so don’t wait if you see a copy under $700.

Ad Nauseam – Neat art, but very low demand. Not a priority.

Living End – Same as Ad Nauseam, but with a glimmer of hope for the Modern deck. 

Vampiric Tutor – Demonic Tutor was some incredible art last time, and Vampiric is also breathtaking to behold. I expect a small dip and then this should take off.

Crackle with Power – Set completion only, and should have a price that reflects it.

Jeska’s Will – #3 on EDHREC, this is a staple and one that’s resisted price drops on reprintings in Commander decks. Both MKM and Baldur’s Gate had decks that came with copies of the card, both of which are $40+ now.  This is absolutely the sweetest version, so I fully expect this to be pricey.

Subterranean Tremors – This is a card that should be played more, but a lot of folks hate losing their own artifacts too, so I expect the play pattern to remain sparse. 

Awaken the Woods – Waifu Watch! – This is a card with noteworthy art, but also is bonkers with the new Witherbloom dragon, the combination of which might make it very expensive indeed.

Berserk – The Wolverine version has stayed surprisingly cheap, so I would imagine this one does too, except that the scroll foil will be rare and expensive like all of these mythics.

Triumph of the Hordes – The TMNT version will likely be the cheapest one forever, so these versions being super rare and super gorgeous will help a lot. 

Rares: 

Angel’s Grace – Low EDHREC use means I don’t need to chase these too hard.

Prismatic Ending – This used to be all over the place in Modern, but not so much anymore and these should drift pretty low. 

Reprieve – I’m going to be watching this card. Stunning art, a LOTR reprint, but also a card that got printed in the Spider-man bonus sheet.

Return to the Ranks – Super low usage means I won’t worry about this much. 

Brain Freeze – Wonderful art on all versions, and the scroll foil is likely more expensive than the halo foil from the Encyclopedia kit.

Daze – The art will not be enough to keep this expensive. 

Pongify – Another card people should play more, it’ll remain cheap.

Preordain – Waifu Watch – There’s a lot of versions of this out there, but as we’ve learned, never underestimate cute anime art on Magic cards. If it sneaks down in price, I’ll definitely want to pick up a few.

Culling the Weak – Cat Watch – A card that doesn’t see a lot of play, it’s got the appeal of cat lovers everywhere and this is not a group to be trifled with.

Dismember – Sick, sick art and something that should keep a pretty good price. Folks these days don’t always go for the full playset, but I doubt that will hurt the value too much.

Sheoldred’s Edict – With a beloved/loathed character, this may see a little bump. Very rarely a bad card. 

Smallpox – Cat Watch – This card sees little enough play, but when you add in a cat like this, that might be all it needs to get expensive.

Big Score – A bunch of printings means everything but the scroll foil will be pretty cheap.

Brotherhood’s End – Very low play pattern, very little interest from me.

Empty the Warrens – Some decks love this, but usually Grapeshot does the job directly. I have low expectations here. 

Pyretic Ritual – Not really a big deal of a card, amazing that this is a rare.

Crop Rotation – Waifu Watch – Now this has a lot of potential. Appealing art, good EDHREC numbers, not a lot of printings. I’ll be likely to get a few copies.

Glimpse of Nature – Good enough to be banned, but yet still not expensive.

Shamanic Revelation – A pet card of mine, it’s just outclassed all over the place.

Veil of Summer – Waifu Watch – Another card that’s too good for this world, especially with this art, I think I’ll try to find some underpriced copies early on.

Bring to Light – There’s just enough use for this in Modern that it should avoid the bottom of the barrel, but not by much.

Culling Ritual – Why don’t I play this more? It’s always so good.

Deflecting Palm – When it’s good, it’s divine, but that’s rare enough in Commander. Should be pretty cheap.

Expressive Iteration – It’s hard to argue with the value of the card, two mana for some excellent selection, so I think we’ll see just enough interest to bump the price. 

Fracture – Creepy art is always going to have some appeal, so we’ll see what that translates to in this card. 

Uncommons:

Abrade – Good but not great.

Bitter Triumph – A lot of decks love a discard outlet, and this is the only special version aside from the nonfoil Store Champs.

Bulk Up – There’s a few decks that want to start with this as a combo card, like Tifa Lockhart. 

Burst Lightning – We’ve had special versions over the years, none of them expensive.

Deduce – A useful card, but never pricey.

Disdainful Stroke – This has less use than you’d think in Commander, but this won’t outprice the Cowboy Bebop version that’s out there. 

Duty Beyond Death – Can be useful, but there’s better effects out there. 

Feed the Swarm – We’ve had a couple special versions now, nothing amazing here.

Giant Growth – Dog Watch! – So many versions, but having a good boy on there sure helps.

Helping Hand – Blessed few decks want to spend a card on this effect.

Hop to It – Three mana, three tokens. If you want it, you got it. Gorgeous art on the JPN version. 

Knockout Maneuver – I’m old enough to remember Hunt the Weak!

Locust Spray – Sometimes you want this effect, either the spell or the cycling. 

Monstrous Rage – The good news is, if it gets good again, people will want four. Bad news is it’s still banned in Standard. 

Pick Your Poison – Never a bad card, but people just don’t find room for it in decks. 

Repel Calamity – This is just super outclassed in Commander, sadly. 

Requisition Raid – Fun Spree card, just not popular enough.

Return the Favor – See above!

Royal Treatment – Green has a lot of ways to save a thing. Tamiyo’s Safekeeping is the most popular, this is down the list a ways and should have that price. 

Shared Roots – I was actually feeling pretty good about this but then it popped up in the Secret Lair and now I’m much less enthused. Rampant Growth is a super popular card, the Roots might have legs long term.

Sleight of Hand – Waifu Watch! – There’s a lot of decks that want cheap cantrips, and this version might end up popular.

Spell Pierce – Waifu Watch! – Again, I want to like this but now the sweet art is in the SL printing with English text, and that’s a Dump Week card for me. Remember that even the Invocation version of this is expensive. 

Stargaze – Nope, no interest. 

Stock Up – BIG BIG INTEREST here. Stock Up is a very popular Standard card, and is worth it in Commander too. I don’t know if these will have a chance to get cheap, but I’m in.

Zombify – Exceedingly niche card, plus in the SLD drop. No thanks. 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Welcome back to another edition of Mana Math! The Secrets of Strixhaven have been revealed, and the Mystical Archive opened once again! This time, instead of etched foils that look disgustingly similar to the regular foils and have the same collector number (hurts my soul just to type that) we’ve got a return of one of my favorite foil treatments: The Silver Scroll.

Let’s get into the odds, the chances. Wizards is legally required to give a certain amount of information about your chances with booster packs, and they meet that standard by spreading the information way out. All I want to do is put it into a couple graphs, and answer the question: How many Collector Boosters do you need to open to get the card you want?

The overview, in case you like knowing the core methods I use: We’re given the chances of pulling a type of card from a slot in a booster pack. We’re also given how many of each of those types exist in a set. A little multiplication, then take the reciprocal, and there you go, an easy-to-understand number. 

I’m not including Play Boosters in this breakdown, because the chances are so often ‘less than 1%’ that I’m estimating like mad. I prefer to do that as little as possible. Just know that if you snag a Japanese-language Mystical Archive mythic rare from an English-language Play Booster, you’re way ahead on your luck rolls!

To begin, let’s look at the main subset, the Mystical Archive. There’s actually three slots which can give you cards from this set, so yes, you can open a triple-MA pack, for better or for worse. Uncommons are in two early slots, nonfoils and regular foil English and Japanese versions are in a different one, and the final slot has the JPN Silver Scroll copies. I’ve collected them all into one table for you.

Yes, you’re seeing this correctly. There appears to be no traditional foil versions of the Japanese-language Mystical Archive cards. It’s nonfoil or the Silver Scrolls, nothing in the middle. There was a passage in the collecting article that made me think those existed:

It seems this was an error, but we’ll see. If traditional foils pop up, if our information is updated, I’ll update this set of tables. 

What’s most interesting here is that the Uncommon Silver Scrolls are going to be proportionally rarer than the Rare/Mythic Rare ones. If you look at the number of packs needed, you need 6x the packs to get the Scrolls foil as opposed to the regular foils. By comparison, you’ll only need 3.3x the packs at the higher rarities. This also gives us an idea of what demand will be like, if the multipliers for the Silver Scrolls are higher or lower than the math would indicate.

Next, let’s look at the table for the nonfoils and then the foils. These are separate slots, but don’t add up to 100% due to the split of Mystical Archive cards. 

Notably, the Extended-Art rare cards are very frequent hits here, and while Collector Boosters have always been swingy, you’re really going to feel it in this set. Keep in mind when you’re opening packs that 60% of CBs have an FEA rare in the last slot! That’s 7.2 of your 12 packs. And then for the nonfoils it is 70%, or 8.4 out of 12!  Taken together, this means 42% (or about 5 of your 12) CBs are double-EA-rare packs. Blech. 

Special Guest foils are about 15% harder to get this set than they were in Lorwyn Eclipsed, and roughly 25% tougher to pull than they were in Edge of Eternities. Notable increase, we’ll have to see if the market demand ends up causing a similar increase in prices. 

As for the Textless Serialized Double Rainbow Foil Emeritus of Ideation, that’s a full-on guess. Here’s how it charts out: 

We know that Wizards doesn’t like to give an exact print run anymore. However, we can estimate based on previous sets we did know, and the likely proportion of profit they report in. For a little context, Lord of the Rings Holiday edition was at 1.5 million packs, and the main summer set was 3.3 million. We’re estimating this is closer to Lorwyn Eclipsed’s print run, which was probably in the realm of 2 to 2.5 million packs. So I’m giving the estimate of about 1 in 5,000 Collector Boosters to snag a serialized card. Again, if we get better information, I’ll be happy to update this post. 

Overall, note that the drop rates for this set are pretty reasonable. Mythic Rare Silver Scroll cards are less difficult to pull than Fracture Foils, and the Rares/Uncommons compare favorably to other recent chase cards. There’s other factors at play, of course, like Commander appeal and art quality, but mostly, this set has an easier time getting just about everything than recent sets have given us. I’m not saying they will be cheaper, or easier to get from folks who opened them, just that there’s a bit more out there than you might be expecting. 

As always, if you’d like to discuss my methods or the results, please feel free to chime in on social media, or especially in the Protrader Discord. Good luck with whatever you decide to open!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.