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Will The Ghostbusters Secret Lairs Be Worth the Trouble?

On Monday, September 30th, there’s a new Secret Lair dropping, with a wide range of cards, art, and Intellectual Property (IP for short, the term used when you want to use the fandom/art/characters/lore/etc). It’s mostly Halloween based, but there’s still a few more cards coming, I think, so today I want to focus on an idea that Secret Lairs have been using: Does the card quality matter more than the fandom? 

I used to be a strong believer that the cards matter. We can find many examples of this, but the core principle for me was that the cards in a drop have to be at least playable for people to give a crap. 

And then Hatsune Miku came along. 

I broke down the prices for these when they came out back in May, and I was expressly clear about the IP being the draw and not the cards. Nothing in this drop is more than $4 in its base version, this is incomplete sets of niche lands, cards that have been power crept out of wide usage, and in English foil, the sealed drop is pushing $100 four months later. 

I think there’s opportunity in the other sealed Miku drops–I’m expecting all four Miku drops to hit a peak when the fourth lands near the end of this year and they can be sold as four-volume sets–that are under $50 with shipping and taxes, but be wary of trying to hold forever, holding out for something like $200. That price can happen (see Princess Bride and Evil Dead) but I like turning cards over and getting your profit reinvested into your next moves. 

I did not know who Hatsune Miku was. I knew I’d missed out on other drops because I underestimated the artist, or the genre, or anything like that. I’d even under-ordered things I knew I’d like but I didn’t think would be big, like the Princess Bride or Evil Dead. That is the core question of Secret Lairs now that they have moved to an IP/theme model: Which themes are going to resell best?

For example, the Spookydrop 2023 is the one that had Evil Dead, Princess Bride, and some other things like Doctor Who’s Weeping Angels and Creepshow. They were bundled together, but this is from the model of Secret Lair that did not sell out–they printed to demand. That’s been a huge change, but even so, for drops that happened at the same time, we’ve got a giant gap in pricing. Evil Dead and Princess Bride are over $150, nearing $200, and Creepshow is at half that price, as is the Dr. Who.

So the question of the moment is: Will Ghostbusters be Princess Bride or will it be Creepshow?

My inclination is to think that Ghostbusters (both the cartoon SL and the Slimer SL) will sell well. Both because the IP is strong and nostalgic, very important in this age of Magic pandering to the folks in their early 40s, but also because it’s going to sell alongside the next Miku installment, and that will be gone quickly. 

I recognize that the cards in the Ghostbusters drop are not Field of the Dead-level inclusions, and that’s okay. Not everything needs to be powerful reprints. I could wish for more iconic scenes, like the hallway, but I get what they are going for. It’s also okay that they went for one set with Slimer in 1984, and then one set with The Real Ghostbusters, the animated version. (Ever wanted to know why it wasn’t called just ‘Ghostbusters’ as the movie was? Do you remember some show with a ghost-faced car and a giant talking gorilla? Here’s the explainer you want.) They are trying to tap a wide net of nostalgia, adding a Chucky drop that I’ll address next week when I go through the drop set by set.

The core point here is that it’s okay if the IP of a drop ‘isn’t for you’ because they aren’t trying to make each one be for everyone. They are casting a wide net and eventually they will get to the things you like. Slimer represents one of their favorite things to do lately: Choose a commander, give that commander sweet art, and then add in several cards that are popular in that commander’s deck. Sometimes that’s an IP of Ghostbusters for The Mimeoplasm. Sometimes that’s a bubble-lettered Zaxara, the Exemplary and a bunch of Hydra accessories. 

Strong IP means that the cards can be weak and people buy the cards just to be collectors, not as much for the playing. I know I have a binder just for SL leftovers that I couldn’t fit into a deck, and flipping through those pages makes me happy.

The core lesson, though, is simple: The IP has to be evaluated on its own merits, not just through the lens of your own enjoyment. James and I talked about the D&D superdrop before it landed, and we thought that the Astarion and Karlach drops were solid, if not great. We did not give proper respect to the number of people who love these characters, and they caused the drops to sell out quite rapidly. 

To put it another way, this doesn’t have to be for you, it just has to be for enough people. Creepshow was a little too niche and hasn’t popped off. Evil Dead, Princess Bride, those are much more widely loved and their prices have gone up. 

I’m going to make purchases as though Ghostbusters will sell out quickly, and I encourage you to do the same.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Casual Fridays

What to Preorder and What to Avoid from Duskmourn

With Duskmourn: House of Horror fully revealed, there’s a lot to talk about. We’ve got new Commanders, new mechanics, and a whole lot of interest. We’ve got just about two months until Foundations is out, and while I’ll be curious to see who switches over on packs, I think Duskmourn will end up like Bloomburrow, getting an abbreviated time on its own in the spotlight. 

So with that in mind, I want to look at some of the cards that I think have real potential to go up from their preorder prices, and which I want to stay the hell away from.

Two caveats before we get into the numbers: First, there’s still two weeks till the official release, and that will include a few days where it’s Arena legal. Prereleases haven’t happened yet, and not every store or company can do preorder pricing. These are not licked-in numbers. Second, almost everything drops from preorder prices, and while I’ll explain my logic, these are swings at the fences. Be kind.

Duskmourn Commander Cards – In a Collector Booster, you’ll have a slot just for the DSC cards, and 81.9% of the times, you’ll open one of the 27 nonfoil EA cards.That gives you a roughly 3% chance to open a specific card you want, or an average of 33 Collector Boosters to snag the one you desire.These will be one of the easiest pulls from CBs.

Notably, the five DSC rooms are only available by buying and opening a sealed Commander deck, they don’t show up in the Collector Boosters at all. If any of those five cards get popular, watch out as they will climb in price quite quickly.

Ancient Cellarspawn (current preorder price $10, and $12 for EA versions)

This is one of my picks for the set, but I can’t recommend getting in at this price. There are a lot of decks that can use this, including everything that wants to pay life, to pitch, to Plot, and to Cascade. Legacy would love this card, especially pitching a Force of Will and adding 5 damage to the opponent. There’s only a couple of Commander decks that can play this with Cascade (Abbadon, Yidris) but free spells is a mechanic that Wizards has been leaning on. 

It’s even got me thinking that I’d add it to The Ur-Dragon, but really, adding one damage to my Dragon spells isn’t worth it.

It’s preordering for $10-$12, but the EA price should come down some and in a few weeks I’ll be ready to buy. 

Sadistic Shell Game ($4.50 EA/$8 regular) – The TCG prices are heavily skewed based off of who’s allowed to post preorder pricing. Folks who preorder are the ones who want the card ASAP, don’t care what it costs, and upgrade every deck with every set. It’s a lot of work and a lot of money, but that’s where we are at. 

The Shell Game is a fantastic card, and as a player used to casting Druid of Purification, let me tell you that this mechanic is busted as hell. If you’re the Archenemy, they will band together and all pick a creature that’s worthless, then you get the one that needs to go. If it’s still more free-for-all, the Game is even better because they pick first! It’s a lot of fun and you should play this card in most of your decks. The EA pricing is tempting but I’m going to be patient for a bit. It’ll drop, but not too far. The Druid is up over $6.

Duskmourn Main Set 

First of all, I think the Japanese-art Enduring cards are set to go off. We’ve got the confluence of three things Magic players have been shown to love: sweet foiling, cute animals, and hyper-rare drop rates. I did the math for you last week, but in English Collector Boosters, it’s going to take you approximately 1,428 CB packs to get just one Fractured Foil English language Enduring Courage. 

The Japanese-language versions are tougher pulls in English packs, but easier in Japanese packs. I don’t have enough information to know if that balances out yet. My inclination is that the Japanese-language cards will be priced less, even in Fractured Foil, but it won’t be too huge a gap.

The other Fractured Foil cards have potential, but cute animals are their own category in Magic. Please keep in mind that the English versions are the same degree of difficulty as the Textured Foils from OTP, but these look a lot more distinct.

Hedge Shredder feels like the card that the casual player will push up and up. That ability goes into so many decks, and will feel utterly broken in whichever deck gets it into play. I think that the demand and the combos will push the card back up to the $15 range soon, up from its current levels around $7 for the basics. So yes, I’m picking this to be the needle in the haystack, the card that rises above its preorder, or bounces quickly back up. If you get your personal copies in the $7 range I think you’re going to feel very good in a month.

Meathook Massacre II is not a supremely broken card. It is a good card, but the combination of mana cost and mana type make it difficult to use. I like the ability, and as a four mana enchantment it’s actually got a lot of utility. It’s definitely not one of the five best cards in the set, and the price will fall.

Exorcise foils should be a pretty good long-term card, as a premium piece of removal that will never be lacking for targets. I don’t like getting in right now at these prices but once the big operations have opened up their product, this is a great target to be an expensive uncommon.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

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The Mana Math of Duskmourn: House of Horror

We have all the cards from Duskmourn: House of Horror, and it’s time we look at the numbers and the chances. Every set, we’re given some percentages, but Wizards doesn’t want to make it super clear how hard it is to open the most chase versions of cards. 

Lucky for you, I’ve gotten good at decoding what they are saying and turning it into useful information.

So let’s get into the statistics, and a couple of ways to buy cards that might be worth your time.

The Nightmare Bundle is one of the best add-ons we’ve seen in a while, and that’s all because of the cards that are added in. When you buy one of these for around $80 (currently, we’ll see if that price goes down), you get all of this, plus a deck box:

  • 6 Duskmourn: House of Horror Play Boosters 
  • 2 Duskmourn: House of Horror Collector Boosters 
  • 20 Traditional foil full-art lands
    • 4 Full-art manor lands of each basic land type 
  • 1 of 3 Borderless promo cards 
  • 1 of 3 Movie poster–themed cards 
  • 3 Double-sided movie posters 
  • 1 Glow-in-the-dark spindown die

I’m going to get into the Collector Boosters in a moment, but the real appeal is in the two ‘1 of 3’ cards. You’ll get one of the promos (Exhume, Damn, Crypt Ghast) and one of the movie poster-style cards (Goryo’s Vengeance, Living Death, Archon of Cruelty) always in foil. Those are all solid choices with good use rates, and while I’m not going to run out and buy bundles/cards immediately, I’m almost certainly going to snag a couple of personal copies early and spec buying six months from now.

In the Collector Boosters, there’s three slots with cards we’ll care about, the last three. Two of them are reserved for the Booster Fun nonfoils, and here’s your statistics for pulling one of these from either slot.

Card Frame/Treatment (# of options)Percent chance for any card of that category in one slotPercent chance for a specific card of that category in one slot# of packs to open one specific card from that category in one slot
Borderless Mythic Rare (6)4.00%0.67%150.00
Borderless Rare (10)14.40%1.44%69.44
Extended-Art Rare (13)18.80%1.45%69.15
Extended-Art Mythic Rare (5)3.60%0.72%138.89
Paranormal Rare (20)29.00%1.45%68.97
Paranormal Mythic Rare (2)1.50%0.75%133.33
Double Exposure Rare (12)17.40%1.45%68.97
Double Exposure Mythic Rare (5)3.30%0.66%151.52
Mirror Monsters Rare (4)5.80%1.45%68.97
Mirror Monster Mythic Rare (3)2.20%0.73%136.36

And remember, you have two of these slots, so you’ll have double the chances to open the card you want (or half the packs, depending on which set of data you like to work with) and this is the formulation they used in Bloomburrow. 

Then in the last slot, you can open anything that’s in the previous slots, just at a 85.9% rate. The other 14.1%, you get a chance at the truly rare drops, the Japan Showcase versions, the Double Exposure and the Special Guests. Don’t worry, I’ve got that table for you too.

Card Frame/Treatment (# of options)Percent chance for any card of that categoryPercent chance for a specific card of that category# of packs to open one specific card from that category
Traditional Foil Borderless Mythic Rare (6)3.44%0.57%174.62
Traditional Foil Borderless Rare (10)12.37%1.24%80.84
Traditional Foil Extended-Art Rare (13)16.15%1.24%80.50
Traditional Foil Extended-Art Mythic Rare (5)3.09%0.62%161.69
Traditional Foil Paranormal Rare (20)24.91%1.25%80.29
Traditional Foil Paranormal Mythic Rare (2)1.29%0.64%155.22
Traditional Foil Double Exposure Rare (12)14.95%1.25%80.29
Traditional Foil Double Exposure Mythic Rare (5)2.83%0.57%176.39
Traditional Foil Mirror Monsters Rare (4)4.98%1.25%80.29
Traditional Foil Mirror Monster Mythic Rare (3)1.89%0.63%158.75
Traditional Foil Traditional Foil Japan Showcase in English (10)6.00%0.60%166.67
Traditional Foil Japan Showcase in Japanese(10)3.00%0.30%333.33
Fracture Foil Japan Showcase in English (10)0.70%0.07%1428.57
Fracture Foil Japan Showcase in Japanese (10)0.30%0.03%3333.33
Textured Foil Double Exposure Mythic Rare (5)1.00%0.20%500.00
Traditional Foil Special Guest (10)3.10%0.31%322.58

Before you start freaking out about a non-serialized card being found in 1 out of every 3,333 packs (a drop rate close to that of the serialized Human Sol Ring from LOTR) we need to keep in mind that the Japanese-language versions of cards show up in roughly a third of English (and other language) Collector Boosters, but that’s the only language for the Japanese-language Collector Boosters. 

To put it another way, instead of a 0.3% chance of a Japanese-language Fracture Foil, you have a 1% chance instead if you’re opening a Japanese-language Collector Booster. And with there being ten options, you’ve got a 1/1000 chance, no longer a 1/3333 chance. 

So if these Japanese-language cards blow up to ridiculous values, you’re looking at the Japanese-language Collector Booster boxes being even better investments. 

It’s worth noting that the rest of the distribution here is in line with expectations from OTJ and BLB. The rarest pulls from the OTP subset, the Textured Foils, were 1 in 1500 packs. The Raised Foil Anime cards from BLB were just under 1 in 600, but those cards are cute furry animals and Magic players tend to spend pretty hard on those, whereas the OTP, even if in a lot of decks, those can be had relatively cheaply.

I’m also cognizant that we are entering a long period where Duskmourn might be the only set people care about. Bloomburrow was only given about two months where it’s being opened and getting all the attention. The next big set will be Foundations in November, but that will have a lot of reprints. We don’t have a date for Innistrad Remastered aside from it being in January, so we might get a glut of Duskmourn. It’s not for sure, though, and it might turn out that we love opening Foundations packs, so we’ll have to wait and see.

If you want to discuss my numbers, please feel free to reach out in the comments, on Twitter, or in the ProTrader Discord!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Casual Fridays

Checking Back on Murders at Karlov Manor

We’re six months past the release of Murders at Karlov Manor, and that’s the timeframe at which we can be pretty confident that supply has hit maximum and attention is pretty low 

This is the time that I want to get into speculating on cards from this set (and its Commander subset, plus the Cluedo cards) and so let’s go over the things that have the best chance of paying us off in the future.

When I’m looking at a whole set, I want to start with cross-format staples, then Commander cards, then Constructed cards, and basically nothing after that. For MKM, there’s a clear place to start.

Surveil Lands (Borderless foil $17-$40, regular frame $9-$17) – These lands are all over the place since rotation, and have jumped in price basically since release. If you got in early, you’re looking at double-ups, at least to start with. 

Notably, though, we’re looking at the next set of Triomes. It didn’t take long for Modern players to add a one-of Triome to decks, as an additional target for fetchlands, but giving the fetchable lands a surveil trigger, that’s exceedingly powerful. 

As a result, I don’t think we’re done with this growth, but I’m expecting a trickle rather than a roar from here out. These lands have two years left in Standard, and they are worthy additions to every Commander and Modern deck that can run them. I don’t think these will grow enough to be good specs, but I would definitely get your personal copies now, rather than wait till they are $5 more. (No, I don’t think a card that goes from $10 to $15 in a year is a good spec. Allow me to link you a classic by Travis Allen that explains this concept, still very relevant a decade later)

Archdruid’s Charm (Foil EA $10) – Interestingly, the most popular card from MKM on EDHREC is Demand Answers, but I don’t want to spec on commons that way, though it’s a very good version of this effect. The Charm is the #3 card from the set, after the UB Surveil land, and makes for a great spec target. It’s been registered in 48,000 decks online, and big green decks will always be a thing in Commander. These are three very good abilities, and while there’s still a lot of vendors left, the card cannot be overlooked.

Wizards has started a cycle here, too. We’ve got Archmage’s Charm, and now Archdruid’s Charm, so presumably we’ll get the other three colors eventually. When the cycle is complete, I fully expect a Secret Lair drop for the set, but for now, I think this is a fantastic spec to hit $20-$25 in the next 12 months. 

Warleader’s Call (Foil Showcase $8.50) – Being in 36k decks already is impressive, and what it does is two things that boros decks tend to want. First, you want a way to buff everything that you have, and boom, here’s a three-mana Anthem effect. Combine that with a way to kill your opponent when you spew tokens onto the board, and you’re off to the races. We know this is a good ability to have, in the permanent type that is the most difficult to remove.

I think this has great potential both as a Standard card, as Bloomburrow gave some really amazing aggro effects, and in Commander. The Standard decks currently using it are rarely at a four-of, but I’m content with 2-3 copies showing up frequently.

Case of the Locked Hothouse (pack foil $6.50) – I like that it’s in 29k decks, and it’s what every green player wants to do. This effect exists in a lot of creatures, but the enchantment being harder to remove makes it so much better. Seven lands is pretty easy to do in the majority of green decks, and then you’re off to valuetown. 

The other appealing thing here is that Sagas are just reprinted less than other cards. It requires a different size of art and so we don’t get as many Secret Lair or other variations. Dodging the reprint risk (at least until Return to Return to Ravnica) makes me feel better about this.

Forensic Gadgeteer (Foil Dossier $3) – The combo potential is very high here, and it can combo in two different ways, both with the Clue synergies and with the reduction in costs. We’ve got another version of this card in Sai, Master Thopterist, and the most premium version of that is over $6. I like where this could go, but the hard part is that the investment may be locked up for quite a while. 

Pick your Poison (Foils $2) – There’s no reason for these foils to be this cheap when it’s played in as many sideboards as this is. It’s a very popular answer to The One Ring, and it was also a fun way to answer Vein Ripper in Pioneer. The recent bannings make that use-case less appealing, but it’s still a useful and flexible card. If you want to wait and see if it’s still popular in sideboards post-banning, I won’t argue.

Slime Against Humanity (Foils $3) – Purely, this is a play based on what has gone before. When a card rewards the playing of many in a row like this, the price gets high. Depending on the deck, the reprint can torpedo the value, but the great news here is that this card synergizes really well with two very popular themes: tokens and +1/+1 counters. This is a great card in a long list of strategies, and while there’s a lot of foils out there right now, they get bought in big clumps. Get a clump for yourself.

Crime Novelist (Foils $1) – Finally, let’s talk about a card that got a LOT of attention early on and now has dropped in the attention rankings. The ‘token artifacts’ method of cards has exploded in the last couple years, and the Novelist loves every bit of this. Adding additional mana after a Food, Clue, or Treasure sacrifice is something a lot of decks can’t pass up, and this will synergize with lots of cards that have yet to see print. Purely speculative, yes, but it’s already the #6 nonland card from the set. 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY