Thursday: Common Cents with Aaron Dettmann

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Sphinx's Revelation. (c) 2013 Wizards of the Coast
Sphinx’s Revelation. (c) 2013 Wizards of the Coast

Pro Tour Gatecrash happened this past weekend, and with it came a bevy of new and exciting Standard decks; and with these new decks come changing card prices and new cards to speculate on. A variety of decks made the top 8, and I’ll take a look at some of the common trends the decks share. The course has been set, so now is the time to be prepared so you aren’t caught unaware of what’s hot, and what’s not, in Standard.

An earlier article by Andrew Smith already covered Boros Reckoner and Falkenrath Aristocrat. I agree with his advice in that column, and thought his analogy comparing Boros Reckoner to Thragtusk was especially apt; both are rares that dominate Standard play, yet will see little use in other formats. Thragtusk peaked at $25 – $30 and stayed there until he was reprinted infinite times in event decks, so Reckoner should remain in that price range as well.

A card I would aggressively trade for is Sphinx’s Revelation. Half the decks in the top 8 of Pro Tour Gatecrash ran Sphinx’s Revelation, for a total of 14 copies. Whenever you see a card that fits into multiple decks that do well, you can expect that card price to go up a lot.

Sphinx's Revelation as of Feb 20, 2013
Sphinx’s Revelation as of Feb 20, 2013

Sphinx’s Revelation has already seen a small price bump since the Pro Tour, but I think it has even more room to grow. Remember, Thragtusk and Boros Reckoner are only rares, yet they reached the $25 – $30 threshold; as a mythic, Sphinx’s Revelation could soar past even that price point. There were only two fewer copies of Sphinx’s Revelation than Boros Reckoner in the top 8, so Sphinx’s Revelation is essentially just as oppressive as the Reckoner.

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One card I would sell off as soon as possible is Hellrider. Its price has almost doubled in the past month, with much of the reason being due to Saito tweeting the Gruul and Naya decklists that utilize this card. However, those decks generally did poorly at the Pro Tour, and Hellrider in particular had a very poor showing at the Pro Tour with only one deck playing it in the top 8. There were multiple Jund and other decks in the top 8 that had the option to use this card, but chose to go in a different direction instead.

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Hellrider as of Feb 20, 2013
Hellrider as of Feb 20, 2013

Because of the low turnout of this card in the top 8, I expect Hellrider to go back down to the $8 – $10 range that it was at prior to the lead up to the Pro Tour.

One last note for now: Stomping Ground and Sacred Foundry have gone up to $20 at Starcity, so be aware that they’re currently worth $5 more than the other Gatecrash shocklands. If you don’t need them immediately for a deck, these two lands are also cards I would sell right away, as once supply increases, I fully expect them to fall in line with the $8 – $12 price point of the Ravnica lands.

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