Magic Origins Clash Pack Review

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Magic Origins Clash Pack Review

Let’s take a look at the Magic Origins Clash Pack to see if it is worth picking up in order to boost the value of your collection. I’ll look at both the MSRP versus retail value of the singles and then compare them to my opinions of what the future value of the cards will be after their rotation from Standard. I’ll also keep in mind that some of the cards from the decks are alternate art foil, which could reflect their future value.

For the alternate art foils, I am going to use the TCG Median price since MTGPrice does not yet track the value of specific clash pack foil versions of cards. I will note the special foils with three asterisks ***.

Decklists:

ARMED $$$ DANGEROUS $$$
1 Anointer of Champions 0.22 2 Ainok Bond-Kin 0.28
1 Dragon Hunter 0.32 2 Disowned Ancestor 0.26
1 Honored Hierarch*** 3 3 Lightwalker 0.42
1 Seeker of the Way*** 0.71 1 Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit 2.47
1 Dromoka Warrior 0.18 1 Avatar of the Resolute 1.6
2 Topan Freeblade 0.28 2 Abzan Falconer 0.4
2 Undercity Troll 0.46 1 Tuskguard Captain 0.18
1 Consul’s Lieutenant 0.3 1 Mer-Ek Nightblade 0.18
1 Dragon Bell Monk 0.14 1 Abzan Battle Priest 0.19
2 Valeron Wardens 0.48 1 Longshot Squad 0.14
2 Citadel Castellan 0.76 1 Siege Rhino*** 4.5
2 War Oracle 0.48 1 Elite Scaleguard 0.19
1 Outland Colossus 1 1 Dromoka, the Eternal*** 0.5
1 Kytheon’s Irregulars 0.9
2 Cached Defenses 0.42
2 Epic Confrontation 0.22 2 Map the Wastes 0.28
2 Enshrouding Mist 0.28 2 Incremental Growth 0.32
1 Feat of Resistance 0.15 2 Ultimate Price 0.68
2 Mighty Leap 0.28 1 Scale Blessing 0.2
1 Pressure Point 0.13 2 Dromoka’s Gift 0.4
1 Valorous Stance*** 2 1 Suspension Field 0.24
2 Titanic Growth 0.3 1 Debilitating Injury 0.14
1 Dromoka’s Command 6 1 Abzan Ascendancy 0.3
1 Collected Company 18 1 Citadel Siege 0.72
2 Pacifism 0.5 1 Ancestral Vengeance 0.14
2 Blossoming Sands 0.3 2 Jungle Hollow 0.3
2 Evolving Wilds 0.44 1 Sandsteppe Citadel*** 0.69
1 Windswept Heath 14 2 Scoured Barrens 0.3
11 Plains 0 2 Blossoming Sands 0.3
10 Forest 0 7 Plains 0
6 Swamp 0
6 Forest 0
Total Cost: $51.83 Total Cost: $16.74

The MSRP cost of the clash pack is $24.99, so looking at these two decks priced at $25 feels like highway robbery. Collected Company and Windswept Heath makes this a very juicy pickup indeed. On top of that they decided to throw in Dromoka’s Command, Siege Rhino, Honored Hierarch, and even Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit for fun.

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The retail value of the singles versus the MSRP of the deck doesn’t automatically mean that everyone should buy this. Yet, I’m pretty sure this is the first clash pack released that is more than double its MSRP value in singles if you were to pay TCGPlayer Median for them. I’m wondering if that means the singles in the clash pack will drop significantly or if this clash pack will sell above MSRP for its life in Standard due to the value of the cards.

Big Reprints

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Screen Shot 2015-07-11 at 9.02.10 AM

Collected Company

So this card is almost $20 TCG Mid right now as a Standard legal rare. Only out since April, Collected Company has already spiked three times due to Modern hype and the amount of decks that it has helped to push in the Modern format, on top of Standard demand in decks like Devotion to Green and Selesnya Aggro. Please realize though that this card isn’t Snapcaster Mage, so I don’t think that the $20 and higher price point is going to be sustainable for long.

Screen Shot 2015-07-11 at 9.02.20 AM

It took a long time for Snapcaster Mage to break the $25 barrier. While it was in Standard, not only did it NOT receive the clash pack treatment but it also never went far above $25 as a fair trade price and could easily be acquired in cash or retail for $20 or less. Collected Company isn’t going to be nearly as ubiquitous as something like Snapcaster Mage. I mean, Birthing Pod decks at one point was putting up numbers in the mid-30% range of Top 8’s in Modern and even Pod never went farther than $20.

Screen Shot 2015-07-11 at 9.02.31 AM

Standard legal cards are tricky, though. Since CoCo is so popular in both Standard and Modern the new price could be sticking. However, with the clash pack reprinting I’m guessing that something similar to what happened to Courser of Kruphix is going to happen to CoCo.

Screen Shot 2015-07-11 at 9.02.40 AM

See that dip there in Jan 2015? That’s about the time the clash pack came out. Courser dropped $5 and never recovered in price. Now, CoCo also has significantly more Modern demand going for it, which is part of the reason the price is so wild right now. Though I feel that as more Dragons of Tarkir packs are busted that the hype will die down and that Collected Company will settle between $12 and $15 for the rest of its Standard life with a dip at rotation. However, if you were savvy enough to get in on Collected Comapny at $4 prerelease prices then definitely get rid of any extras you have before the price starts dipping again. This is the highest we’re going to see it for a while, and the clash pack reprint means the price is only going down.

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Windswept Heath

I don’t think the clash pack printings are going to have any effect at all on Windswept Heath’s price in the near future, other than to stabilize it further at $15 compared to the other currently Standard legal fetchlands. The price isn’t going to lower significantly, as I don’t think we’ll ever see sub-$10 fetchlands in Standard since they are so vital to mana bases in the format and beyond.

This is a great opportunity to get in on Windswept Heath once copies from the clash packs saturate the market, since I’m guessing that many players are going to want to pick this clash pack up for the value. Once the price on Heath stabilizes, it’s going to be nice to pick up extra copies to use as trade bait later in Heath’s Standard life.

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Dromoka’s Command

Dromoka’s Command is never going above $6 due to the clash pack printing. It previously had highs of $10 closer to the release of Dragons of Tarkir, however now that the hype has died down and Standard might be taking a new direction as the fall approaches, demand for Dromoka’s Command has wavered and retailers have updated their prices to reflect that.

Screen Shot 2015-07-11 at 9.03.05 AM

Siege Rhino

I think that similar to Whip of Erebos that the clash pack printing of Siege Rhino will reflect the pack version’s price. The alternate art isn’t great on this card, so the regular foils of Siege Rhino will still be worth more than the clash pack foil but will stabilize quite a bit due to the clash pack printing.

In general, I’m not sure if Siege Rhino will ever go much further than $6 retail during its remaining time in Standard. Abzan is already starting to wane in favor of other strategies, so the demand for the Rhino has also been waning.

Screen Shot 2015-07-11 at 9.03.12 AM

Honored Hierarch

The jury’s still out on Honored Hiearch, as Magic Origins has just been released, however I think that it definitely has potential in Standard since Wizards is showing that they are moving away from one mana manadorks in favor of cards like Rattleclaw Mystic. My personal evaluation of the card is hot garbage, however I’m no professional player and also noted that Wizards released this as a rare which means that in playtesting it was too powerful as an uncommon (maybe for limited reasons?).

Either way, due to the clash pack printing and the already low price of $2.50 to $3, I don’t think that the Hierarch is going anywhere in price for the time being. Seems like it is tricky to get going in Standard, and even then your reward is only Birds of Paradise.

Screen Shot 2015-07-11 at 9.03.23 AM

Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit

Any chance that this card had of going over $3 was just killed. Now that there are going to be even more copies of this version of Anafenza out there the price isn’t moving. In fact, it could even go down based on the release of the clash pack.

If a later Standard strategy utilizes her, the price might move back up towards $3 but I don’t think there is room for growth here due to the clash pack reprinting.

 

Summary

The awesomeness of this clash pack can’t be understated. There is a ton of value here and I’m sure I’m not the only person that noticed. The big-box retailers are going to sell this clash pack for $30 or more based on the card values yet there are always deals to be had. I’m sure plenty of retailers are going to have this for $25 (or less even) so if you want to pick up the clash pack for a cheap copy of Collected Company and Windswept Heath for Standard play you can’t go wrong.

However, I would caution that once the singles dip in price that the deck will get less and less valuable and therefore less attractive as a pickup. For example, after Collected Company and Windswept Heath stabilize in price, most of the value cards are going to be $3 and less with just tons of bulk thrown in there. It’s going to be hard to trade or out the cards as more time goes on, so if you want to make the most of this clash pack then it is better to sell or trade the singles sooner rather than later.

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15 thoughts on “Magic Origins Clash Pack Review”

  1. Only point I can’t quite agree on is the comparison between Snapcaster and CoCo… You can’t really compare an apple with an egg and expect similar results.

    Otherwise I agree unless White Weeny has a break out.

    But what you failed to mention were the other good cards still sleeping in there (Valorous Stance, Ultimate Price, Outland Colossus), which could also hold value.

    1. True, there are ton of great uncommons in this clash pack as well! My coverage was only for the rares but the uncommons will also maintain at least some value moving forward, especially Valorous Stance since that one is played in Modern as well.

  2. For value, this is one of the best Clash Packs I’ve seen. Collected Company and Windswept Heath will continue to rise despite this print.

  3. CoCo just got the Courser treatment and I’m personally pissed cause Wizards once again has halted the growth of a great spec of mine. Jared I agree with you, it will dip and won’t recover or reach $20 unless every deck in Standard starts playing it. Hallowed Moonlight also acts as a counterspell to it right??

    I’m not sure why Caves of Koilos is the least expensive pain land…if it’s because of the Modern event deck inclusion then I have to assume Windswept Heath will also drop in value some, possibly below Bloodstained Mire but at least down towards that level. Financially I don’t think it affects a lot but non-foil versions will probably have the worst growth potential going forward.

    I think all the prices of these cards are going to get crushed because EVERYONE is going to buy the Clash Packs for the value. I’m not saying it’s wrong to do so, but everyone can easily buy 2 of the Clash Pack and open it and theoretically make money. I think the $1-4 cards all drop towards bulk like Seeker, Valorous Stance, Anafenza, etc. As an investor I despise the Clash Packs (if you couldn’t tell), but if I was trying to improve my collection’s value this is probably the best investment one could make at the point in time. It’s just that EVERYONE knows this and I feel like this clash pack will be over produced and purchased. Remember when True Name was around $50??? That Commander deck wasn’t overproduced or anything ;-p

      1. I think its potential in Modern is still not totally explored (maybe Jund Company can be a thing?), but during its Standard life it may not break 20$ again. I still believe, it’ll recover if it puts up results again.

    1. Why would you be speccing in CoCo now!? It was 4 dollars for months and now it’s 15+. That ship had sailed way before this deck was announced.

  4. Great breakdown of the clash pack. Saved me a ton of work looking up values to determine whether or not purchasing it would be worthwhile (looks like it is). Thank you!!!

    I will definitely look to pick up a pack or two to crack for singles if I ever see them at my local stores at MSRP.

  5. Jason, most players and stores are smart enough to wait for a card to finish spiking before buying or trading for them (at least the players and stores in my area unless I get lucky). So if mtg price has CoCo valued at $20 tcg low probably has it around $13-15 and my local store is only buying it for $9. For instance, Modern Masters 2015 Goyfs are “priced” at $170 on this site but I’ve picked them up for $125ish on ebay. I’ve gotten Foil Den Protector playsets for $32 when the non-foil version was priced at $9…

    So with this Clash Pack printing everyone was right in waiting for a lower price on CoCo and I don’t get to maximize my investment on the card. Does that sound greedy??? well this is an mtgfinance site, I’d much rather sell my card for as much money as possible instead of selling short to ensure profits. From the few comments posted, I think people are severely underestimating how many Clash Packs will be produced and purchased. I agree it makes sense as the value is there and will continue to be there, I said I agree with purchasing the Clash Pack, but I think it will be a value purchase and not a purchase people can profit from. I think it was the Mind Seize Commander Deck with True Name, if you got in super early there was money to make. Eventually it was so over produced by Wizards that it created a financial loss for anyone who bought at $50 which at the time was the price of True Name by himself.

    1. Good comparison to Mind Seize, I definitely see the clash pack following a similar trend if the printing waves match the demand. However, I’m not sure about the numbers on the clash pack printings – I was under the assumption that they only came out in one wave and once those were gone that was it, you couldn’t buy any more.

      Either way, to get the full profits from this you need to buy it as close to retail as soon as possible and then trade/sell the value cards as soon as possible, because the more clash packs that are released, the faster that CoCo and Heath are going to drop in price.

  6. I agree with Spencer on this one.

    People are going to see the Heath and CoCo and buy in thinking they are getting great value. MSRP right now is great, but this is one pack I think will simply give you your value and no profits.

    Heath and CoCo are going to stagnate / drop with the quick reprint. Copies are very readily available from each print. I have stayed away from this one and plan to scoop up the staples when they drop (which they will). Heaths will be available under 10 on ebay for sure. Anafenza and Rhino could arguably become bulk with this or close to it at rotation.

    I am going to gamble on Anafenza for a future white weenie deck, but not at more than a buck a piece.

    1. It’s going to be a great play to scoop up the staples once they drop / stabilize in price. Later in Standard, at least a few of them are bound to go up again.

  7. Thanks Steve. I think you can get Anafenza for bulk too (unfortunately). The foils have a little value/extra cost cause she’s in Modern CoCo.

    And Jared, phenomenal article. Don’t write so well in the future cause we’ll lose you to the Protrader side 🙂
    Regarding Honored Hierarch: “My personal evaluation of the card is hot garbage”…LOVE IT! Not sure if you are right, but that was my first thought as well. At least with the clash pack printing we can always buy them super cheap.

    1. Thanks for the kind words as always, Spencer! You guys are the reason that I keep churning out content. I haven’t been as on-schedule these days since I’ve been traveling a ton recently (family obligations and whatnot) but fear not! Once the summer passes I should be back to posting regularly.

  8. Spencer stole the words out of my mouth. Exactly who is paying mtgprice to advertise this???

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