By: Jared Yost

One of the most important data items about a card’s value is something that Magic financiers have coined “the spread”. What we mean by this is how much does a store’s demand (buylist price) compare to the market demand for that same card (fair trade price)? By representing this demand mathematically we can make better predictions about a card’s future value rather than attaching emotional investment to it (This card is cool, its going to definitely be worth something!) or by our own perceived predictions of where the card’s price is going in the future.

Getting the Spread

To calculate the spread, you calculate the percentage difference between a store’s buylist price and the fair trade price of that same card. The smaller the spread value the more demand a store, or several stores, is driving for a particular card. Examples to demonstrate my point:

Flooded Strand is currently the most valuable card in Khans of Tarkir, with a fair trade price of $20. Stores also have a high demand for Flooded Strand since the buylist price is only about $6 less than the fair trade (or retail) value of the card. Because Flooded Strand has both the highest fair trade price and highest buylist price in Khans, and the difference between the two prices is smaller than a cheaper fair trade card like Sarkhan, we can see that a smaller spread means that your card is more valuable when buylisting to stores. Its pretty easy to see lower spread equals higher demand with the numbers laid out like above.

What About Negative Spread?

Now that we know that low spread equals more store demand, I want to talk about negative spread. Sometimes the demand for a card is so great that the spread will actually be a negative value. Negative spread, otherwise known as arbitrage, is the best type of spread to discover. MTGPrice does track this type of information using what we have dubbed the “MTGPrice.com ‘Free Money’ Arbitrage Tool”. There are two types of arbitrage:

1) Natural Arbitrage, which is the difference between one store’s demand of a card compared to another store’s demand. That is, one store’s buylist is higher than another’s selling price, which means you buy the card at the low sell price and then sell to the higher buylist price. The arbitrage tool mainly tracks this arbitrage type.

2) Market Force Arbitrage, which means that the average market price of a card is lower than a store’s buylist. This happens when a store can’t get enough copies of a card in stock at the current buylist price, so they have to raise their buylist price in order to attract people to sell to that buylist. Many times this new buylist price will be higher than a market average if a card has become really popular due to a new deck strategy being introduced in a format or if vendors are preparing for big events. One thing to note about this type of arbitrage is that it usually doesn’t last that long – once the store has enough copies, they will usually raise the retail price while keeping buylist the same or lower so that the spread widens (and their profit again increases).

Another article could be written on the data contained within the arbitrage tool, but suffice to say that arbitrage is the best type of spread to find. You can occasionally find this type of spread in Standard legal cards, however 99% of arbitrage is going to be cards that are Modern legal or older.

Bringing Khans Into the Mix

OK, so now that I’ve explained how spread works let’s see what some of the current prices for Khans staples are compared to their buylist prices. Below is a listing of cards that have a buylist price of at least $0.50 at an online retailer (copied from the Khans of Tarkir spoiler list).

One trend you should notice right away is that the low spreads do not necessarily correlate with the higher priced fair trade cards, which indicates that stores are demanding cards different than the currently most expensive ones. Out of the top ten, Sorin, Solemn Visitor actually has the highest spread, which is definitely surprising for a planeswalker since they tend to be some of the more sought after cards. There could be many factors why Sorin has such a high spread but the takeaway here is that you are going to want to trade your Sorins rather than buylist them if you’re looking to get out of the Sorin market. You will get more value out of a trade rather than selling to a store.

Let’s take a look at the list in a different way, sorted by lowest to highest spread. The lowest spread cards are the perfect cards to send to buylists while the higher spread cards are the ones that you want in your trade binder when you hit up a local event.

Right away we notice that there are three cards in the top ten lowest spreads that are less than $2 – Bloodsoaked Champion, Rattleclaw Mystic, and Empty the Pits. We can draw a conclusion from this that stores are trying to pick up as many copies of these cards as they can because their buylist is so close to fair trade price. If a card continues to generate great demand, the fair trade price will usually rise up to match that demand and then the spread will become greater as the fair trade price goes up while the buylist stays the same. In other words, cards with a smaller spread that are cheap to pick up at fair trade price are a strong indication that the retail price could rise in the future. This means they are potentially good speculation targets since stores are so eager to get their hands on copies.

Other cards vendors don’t have much confidence in, or maybe just have lower demand for the moment, include anything that’s higher than 50% spread. Notables here include Jeskai Ascendancy, Sorin, Solemn Visitor, Hooded Hydra, See the Unwritten, and Butcher of the Horde – these cards could go up in retail price over time if demand rises but right now it would be better to trade these cards rather than buylist them due to the spread being so high. Stores aren’t selling enough copies, and until they do they will be paying less to stock their inventory with these cards than something like fetchlands.

Anything that is between 40%-50% should be watched closely for signs of lower spread movement. Cards like Siege Rhino, Anafenza, the Foremost, and Ashcloud Phoenix are good examples since they are popular Standard cards that are fairly cheap pricewise yet demand from stores is slightly lower for these cards for one reason or another (market saturation, local metagame, etc.). Having a somewhat higher spread means that you could trade them well now but could also potentially get good cash returns from buylist prices in the future.

Data Alone Isn’t Everything

Just because we can calculate the spread and look at the numbers objectively doesn’t mean crazy things don’t happen. After all, cards spike in price out of nowhere all the time and their spread from the previous days gave us no indication this would happen.

The spread is just one of many tools that you can use to help identify potentially undervalued cards. I’ve certainly used it in the past to great success, however there are certainly times when I see a low spread but I’m still not convinced that a card is going anywhere for one reason or another. Empty the Pits would be an example now. It’s played in Standard but only in control decks and only as one or two copies, so the demand is probably coming from casual players and the Commander crowd rather than tournament demand. I don’t feel that this card is going to jump big any time soon, so even though the spread is lower I’m not going all in on this card.

Spread is important, however other factors like local market demand, the current Standard metagame, new set spoilers, and past evidence of utility should all also be considered if looking for potentially undervalued cards.

Last Thoughts

Spread can definitely be one of the more powerful tools for picking undervalued cards because vendors aren’t playing around when it comes to buylist – they’ve also done their homework to set prices where they want them, and if a buylist spread is getting smaller and smaller it usually is only a matter of time before that card’s retail price rises as well.

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By: Jared Yost

If you haven’t checked out Travis’ review of the Fate Reforged mythics and rares, I urge you to do so before you continue. I also highly recommend checking out James’ blog post on digging for dollars in Fate Reforged, which has helped shape some of my own opinions on the cards that I review in this article.

Now that your mind is full of the possibilities that await us in Fate Reforged, I present to you my set review of the uncommons and commons of Fate Reforged. Let’s first go over some ground rules like I did for my Khans uncommons and commons review.

Since covering just the mythics and rares was such a massive undertaking, Travis tasked me with covering the remaining uncommons and commons in the set that seem powerful enough to see Standard, Modern, Legacy, and even Cube or Vintage play. I’ll stick to Travis’ original article format for this and list out the uncommons and commons I like in the following order:

• White
• Blue
• Black
• Red
• Green
• Multicolored
• Artifact
• Land

I will not list the uncommons/commons that are bulk, since most uncommons/commons will be bulk and only a select few will wind up seeing tournament play. Also keep in mind that it is really hard for an uncommon to break a $2. In other words, unless the uncommon is insane then it will be hard for it to break $2 so don’t pick up tons of uncommons expecting them to spike in price. If an uncommon is really good also expect it to be in an event deck or other supplementary product, furthering the chance none of us will profit from it financially.

I think the best mind set to be in while reviewing uncommons and commons from a financial perspective is to think about the best way to pick them up cheaper than retail, which usually is to set them aside when you crack them or draft them so that you don’t later have to buy these cards at retail prices when you need them for a deck. Foils are nice pick ups for eternal playable uncommons and commons if they are powerful to be included in Modern, Legacy, or even Vintage decks. Many times I will prefer to pick up foil copies as they will retain more value in the long term.

Alright, let’s dive into the uncommons and commons of Fate Reforged.

White

Lightform
Outside of the Manifest ability, let’s look at what we get with Lightform – a 2/2 with flying and lifelink for three mana. That’s pretty efficient mana-wise. The double white makes it harder to include in decks yet if it proves powerful enough then I can definitely see it being played. If we include Manifest in the mix, then it becomes even better even though we don’t quite know the power level of Manifest yet.

This card is potentially Legacy playable as James pointed out in his preliminary review – the interactions Manifest has with Sensei’s Divining Top, Phyrexian Dreadnought, Enlightened Tutor, and other cards is there but I’m not quite sure if it is good enough without further support. It’s definitely not as good as the blue form, which grants hexproof, however flying and lifelink are still pretty strong on something like Phyrexian Dreadnought.

Regardless of the tournament play, casual player wise I think this is going to be a big hit. Foils are probably good targets and even non-foils could rise in price over time.

Mardu Woe-Reaper
We’ve certainly come a long way from Savannah Lions. A cross between Elite Vanguard and Scavenging Ooze, if Warriors becomes a deck in Standard you can expect a playset of this guy to be found in it. Keep any copies you get and hold onto them because if Warriors isn’t good now it still has potential down the road. Cheap foil copies of this card will be a nice pickup.

Soul Summons
I’m not sure if this card is any good but it is a cheap Manifest enabler, so if the Manifest emerges and plays any copies of this card then it could be good to stash away some copies for potential future growth.

Valorous Stance
This card is going slide very nicely into the currently existing U/W Heroic archetype and is also flexible enough to see play in other decks. I would target foils of this especially.

Wardscale Dragon
I wouldn’t bother with nonfoils here. Foils are good pickups for Commander, since eliminating players from casting spells during your combat is nice effect. Casual players will help boost the price of foils as well since many players like to collect foil dragons.

Blue

Cloudform
This is definitely an upgrade on its cousin Lightform in white. Flying and hexproof are a powerful combination of abilities and similar to Lightform you are getting at least a 2/2 flyer with hexproof for three mana – efficient enough for Modern and maybe even Legacy play. This card has applications in Standard as well, though I think it will shine the most in eternal formats. Picking up foil copies is a good move for the long term.

Frost Walker
Though quite fragile, two mana for a 4/1 is a pretty good deal. Just like in limited, in Standard this card is an easy enough Ferocious enabler and could potentially see play there. Definitely don’t pick these up with cash – collect them through limited events and as trade throw-in’s for potential long term gain once Theros block rotates from Standard.

Jeskai Sage
For some reason, this card seems pretty good to me in Standard. If you’re playing a deck based on prowess, for the most part this guy is a 2/2 for two that draws you a card when it dies. I think that’s a pretty good deal but I’m not sure if it is good enough for Standard – at least not this Standard. I’m going to be keeping an eye on Jeskai Sage for potential Standard play.

If not Standard, he is definitely Cube worthy. Cheap foils are worth picking up.

Marang River Prowler
Similar to the Sage above, this guy might be cute for Standard though I think it doesn’t quite gets there. If you target the river prowler do it for the Cube’s sake rather than Standard. Cheap foils could be a good speculation here.

Mindscour Dragon
Stick to foils here due to Dragon collectors and potentially Commander. The effect isn’t that good for this dragon since milling is kind of the opposite of your game plan when you’re beating someone’s face in with flying monsters. My hopes for Commander play could be dashed due to that but hopefully the 60 card casual players still salivate over Mindscour Dragon.

Neutralizing Blast
Seems OK in Standard yet multicolored can be real hit or miss depending on the matchup. I think this card will be relegated to sideboard play but could still retain value if more multi-colored cards start popping up in Standard over the next year.

Reality Shift
This card is pretty nice, especially in eternal formats. For two mana it turns an opposing beat stick into a 2/2 creature with no abilities. I’m not sure if it is good enough in Standard however it could wind up seeing play if Manifest turns out be a Tier 2 strategy.

Foils are good targets for Legacy, Modern, or Cube play.

Refocus
This could be an interesting cantrip trick for U/W Heroic or Jeskai Ascendancy shenanigans in Standard. In eternal formats, foils would be a better target than non-foil since Ascendancy in eternal formats relies on untapping creatures as part of the combo and this card can help continue the combo by drawing an additional card.

Black

Battle Brawler
Battle Brawler is quite an efficient Warrior – for two mana you get a 2/2 that becomes a 3/2 with first strike if you control a red or white permanent. I could definitely see this getting played in a B/W or other Warriors build in Standard. Pick up copies on the cheap whenever you can in case Warriors becomes a deck and it plays this card.

Dark Deal
As James mentioned, Dark Deal is quite the combo enabler. Black hasn’t really ever seen a card like this before so I’m definitely interested in seeing if it makes an impact on eternal formats. Picking up foils seems like the best bet long term as I don’t think it will see much Standard play.

Mardu Shadowspear
Dash is actually what makes this card awesome. Not only can you drop it on turn one if you want to play your deck on curve, during the late game you can Dash it into combat to take away those final points of your opponent’s life total if needed. This card isn’t that good during the mid game, which is a downside, but otherwise I think it is a fine card that has a good shot at being included in either a Warrior or other aggro deck.

Though Shadowspear is also the Game Day promo, which could be a good target if you want the full art version, I think nonfoil copies are also good to hold onto for potential future growth.

Merciless Executioner
Fleshbag Marauder as a Warrior seems good. You can put it into a tokens deck and use it to your advantage against non-token strategies. It might also might appear in a Warriors deck if it fits along the curve nicely. I’ll be watching this card as time moves along.

Noxious Dragon
Not amazing though again foils are nice target for the casuals and collectors of Dragons amongst us.

Typhoid Rats
No matter how many printings the Rats get, they always seem be worth at least a few cents on a buylist. Stock up on copies and one day you might find that they will surprise you when you go to collect.

Red

Collateral Damage
The new spin on Lightning Bolt, this card might not be Stoke the Flames but it is still powerful in token based strategies since you can just sack one of your tokens to Bolt something. Keep any copies you get aside to see if they’re worth anything eventually.

Humble Defector
I’m honestly not sure how this card will shake out. Giving it to your opponent is a huge downside that could turn this card into a Goblin Piker in many cases. Yes, there are magical Christmasland scenarios where you give it to your opponent, steal it back with Yasova, then use it again, yet I think that these scenarios are the exception rather than the rule.

What this card really needs are instant speed sac outlets that allow it happen without any side effects, kind of like Collateral Damage. Hmm, maybe there is something to this…

Though Standard might lack these effects, Modern or other formats where giving it to your opponent might not matter (since you plan on winning that turn) are a different story. I would only target cheap foils of this card for now, and only as pure speculation. The power hasn’t been proven yet, however if it breaks out then it’s price could gain quite substantially.

Rageform
While not nearly as efficient as its white and blue counterparts, double strike is a pretty nice bonus that becomes better if you can Manifest a good creature. My hopes might be higher than how actually good it is though. I’ll be keeping an eye on this one moving forward.

Shockmaw Dragon
Like the other Dragons, the ability is not that great but foils should do well long term.

Wild Slash
In addition to a Lightning Bolt variant, this set also gave us a Shock variant that makes the damage unpreventable if you have Ferocious. I can see this being played in Standard, and if not this Standard then definitely post Theros block. Keep some copies stored away for anticipated Standard play and possibly in Modern or beyond.

Due to its ubiquity in being played in almost any red deck and the fact that it is uncommon, I think that Wild Slash could be one of the most financially relevant cards in Fate Reforged.

Green

Destructor Dragon
OK, this dragon is definitely the most powerful (casually) of the uncommon cycle. Not only do you get a 4/4 flyer in green for six mana, you also get to take out the strongest noncreature permanent when it dies. This dragon should be targeted above all of its other uncommon brethren because it seems like it will be amazing in Commander.

Foils again will be the best targets.

Map the Wastes
I think this could actually have Standard potential. I like being able to turn my Elvish Mystic into a 2/2 while also being able to continue ramping. I might be stretching the playability of the card but it can’t hurt to set some aside in anticipation of potential play.

Sudden Reclamation
I like the fact that this card is an instant and will return a creature and a land from your graveyard to hand. Though not as mana efficient as Satyr Wayfinder, it can get you big bombs or help fix your mana by getting back previously self-milled lands. I also think that it will almost always get back both the creature and the land. Couldn’t hurt to pick up some copies on the cheap.

Winds of Qal Sisma
This card is a real blowout if you can setup a scenario where you come out on top. I think R/G midrange decks might utilize it as a neat combat trick to help clear the way. This is not something that will spike overnight or anything, though it could prove useful in Standard at least in sideboards.

Multicolored

The only multicolored uncommons and commons I could see maybe getting Standard play are Harsh Sustenance and War Flare, but I still don’t think they are powerful enough to compete. The multicolored uncommons and commons don’t look that great financially to me.

Artifact

The only uncommon/common artifact that I like from the set is Hero’s Blade. This is a nifty artifact for Commander generals, so  I would target both foils and nonfoils on the cheap for potential future demand. No other uncommon and common artifacts look appealing to me from the set.

Lands

The only uncommon/common lands in Fater Reforged are the reprinted Khans Refuges, that is the dual lands that come into play tapped and gain you one life. No lands are financially relevant in Fate Reforged

Summary

Here’s the top five uncommons and commons (by cycle, if applicable) in list format so that you know which uncommons and commons I think will hold the most financial value in Fate Reforged moving forward.

HONORABLE MENTION: Reality Shift

1. Wild Slash
2. Mardu Woe-Reaper
3. Cloudform
4. Humble Defector
5. Dark Deal

Here is my top five FOIL uncommons and commons (by cycle, if applicable)

1. Dragons (especially the Green one)
2. Cloudform and Lightform
3. Humble Defector
4. Dark Deal
5. Reality Shift

Again, let me reiterate that I am not recommending that players buy thousands of these uncommons/commons en masse trying to make a profit by expecting them to spike. Uncommons and commons are notoriously slow to increase in price, if at all. It takes something like Delver of Secrets level of play to make that happen – and even then it was a few years before it really started going up in value.

I also hope this article will enable players to identify the more powerful uncommons and commons in the set so that they can pick them up for decks if they want to play them, and that it helps players building cubes to identify which foil uncommons and commons are best to pick up.

By: Jared Yost

Fate Reforged spoilers have been released in full and this set is poised to make its impact on Standard. Instead of writing a detailed analysis of individual cards right away, I am going to give you my first impression of the set at this point based on comments I’ve seen around the web and my own thoughts.  I’m going to keep the focus on discussing potential trends of cards from Khans of Tarkir, Theros Block, and M15, since Fate Reforged prices are mainly driven by hype at this point. Card by card analysis will come later this week from my fellow MTGPrice writers. If they leave out the uncommons and commons I can cover them later just like I did for Khans of Tarkir.

Manifest

Manifest is this set’s most unique keyword and it has brought something to the game that we haven’t seen before. I’ve heard plenty of dissenting voices saying that Manifest will not be that relevant but it is interesting enough to have potential. Whether or not it pans out remains to be seen, however some there some cards trending due to the revelation of Manifest.

Trail of Mystery – Several Magic financiers have noticed that Manifest has caused this card to become the most sought after trade on Puca Trade. Retail tells a different story, where the card hasn’t moved from its current price of $0.25 per copy. This is bulk rare status and can easily be negotiated as such in a trade. Trail of Mystery is definitely something to keep our eyes on as Standard adopts to Manifest. Even if it doesn’t turn out to be any good, casual players still seem to be getting behind the card due to its interaction with Manifest and I think the card has a chance of hitting $0.75 or more over the next month just due to this demand alone.

Hooded Hydra – Hooded Hydra has already jumped from $1.25 to $2.50 TCG Median. MTGPrice puts the current price of Hydra around $2 average. This tells me that casual players are targeting the Hydra in the hopes that they can create a Manifest deck that works well with the Hydra’s morph ability of putting five +1/+1 counters on itself when it becomes unmorphed. I admit, I get the feeling that there could be something to this in Standard. Yes, you have to jump through some hoops to get a decent return on this Manifest investment, but Fate Reforged is giving us Whisperwood Elemental.

I’m not saying that this card is the next Thragtusk, Huntmaster of the Fells, or Master of the Wild Hunt – there are some key differences here that make Whisperwood Elemental slightly worse. It has a higher mana cost without immediate impact by itself. If this is your only creature and your opponent has removal, you wasted turn five which is a critical turn in a format like Standard. It also has a higher color commitment since it requires two green to cast. This could limit it to only being found in fewer strategies that heavily focus on green.

On the plus side, Whisperwood Elemental combines the effects of Master of the Wild Hunt with Voice of Resurgence for all your other creatures in a tidy, neat package. Being 4/4 also helps it dodge many of the different types of removal in the format. I expect some pros to brew with Whisperwood Elemental, and if Hooded Hydra shows up in that deck somehow you can expect upward trends in the Hydra’s price over the coming weeks.

Finally, Master of Pearls is another card that gets much better with the Manifest mechanic and is trending right now on Puca Trade. How this card might fit into Manifest is hard to tell, since it appears on the surface to be an aggro creature, however I think it also could fit into a midrange deck if the synergy is powerful enough to pump all of your dudes for a game ending strike. For bulk, I don’t think there is much risk in picking up a playset.

Black / White Warriors Gets Support

A slightly more subtle trend that was also put into Fate Reforged is a warrior theme. Cards like Battle Brawler, Merciless Executioner, Mardu Shadowspear, Mardu Strike Leader, Mardu Woe-Reaper, and especially Brutal Hordechief all provide tools to make Warriors an archetype.

Currently existing cards that fit into this strategy include:

• Bloodsoaked Champion – Even though this was included in the Khans evet deck, this card probably has the best chance of being included in a warriors deck. Current sitting at around $1.50 TCG Median and $1.30 MTGPrice fair trade value, I don’t think you can go wrong with picking up your playset if the B/W Warriors strategy interests you.
• Athreos, God of Passage – Definitely a much pricier card to pick up, since this card is from a third set and getting harder to find. However, it has the chance of spiking out of nowhere if B/W Warriors becomes a mainstay after Fate Reforged is released. This is the only other god besides Pharika that costs three mana to play, and if the devotion count is reached with Athreos then it becomes and indestructible beat stick. The recursion choice for creatures with Athreos is also important since many of the creatures being played will be dying and possibly coming back if your opponent doesn’t pay the three life per creature.
• Chief of the Edge / Chief of the Scale – These picks might be stretching it, but they do seem pretty strong in an aggro deck of this type.
• Herald of Torment – Definitely a strong Bestow curve topper, though we haven’t seen Herald do so well in a field full of midrange. A strong aggro strategy could make this card shine. Herald is currently less than $1 right now, so buy in wise it doesn’t take much to pick up a playset.
• Dictate of Heliod – This is a strong pump effect that can come out of nowhere in the late game to help finish your opponent off. While current $0.42 fair trade on MTGPrice, retail you can find it much lower if you look around.
• Caves of Koilos – Currently sitting around $2.40 fair trade value, this land will be very important for fixing during those crucial early turns when you need to cast your spells on curve. Mana Confluence also fits into this category as well, however that land is currently sitting around $13 and won’t be going up much more even if a B/W Warriors deck is created. Caves, like Battlefield Forge and Llanowar Wastes, has a chance of going to $5 and beyond with a high finish from a warriors build.

These are just a few of the cards identified by others and myself as potential targets for inclusion in a warriors deck. Though the deck might not pan out, as the currently existing midrange strategies tend to blow aggro out of the water, similar to Manifest there could be some hype around the cards that show up in decks that do well the first few weekends that Fate Reforged is legal.

R/G Midrange Gets Support

Cards that potentially fit into existing R/G midrange strategies include Shaman of the Great Hunt and Shamanic Revelation.

R/G Midrange is a fine deck already, but having cards that enable card advantage and occasionally will enable life gain is something that can’t be overlooked. Take note that Shamanic Revelation is the buy-a-box promo from the set and that Shaman of the Great Hunt is quite an overpowered mythic if you can get it to stick for a few turns.

Cards that go well in these strategies include:

• Xenagos, the Reveler – Xenagos spiked earlier in the Standard season yet has gone down to only $6.25 fair trade price and TCG Median. Xenagos adds some punch to these strategies and could see a price uptick.
• Crater’s Claws – Could these new tools finally take Crater’s Claws to $2 and beyond? It is currently used as a finisher in R/G Midrange and might be played more if the deck is featured in a high level match at Pro Tour Fate Reforged.
• Ashcloud Phoenix – In addition to potential Manifest shenanigans, this card will continue to be in the R/G Midrange strategies as well. Appearances in both decks could bolster the card’s price.
• Rattleclaw Mystic – Very cheap price right now for a mana dork that provides Temur color fixing plus a Morph bonus. Again, Manifest possibilities aside, it is still a great card in its own right. I feel that $1.50 is very cheap for Rattleclaw right now and that it will be going up in price over the year.

 U/B Control Gets Support

Cards that add to U/B Control’s repertoire include Crux of Fate, Ugin, the Spirit Dragon, and Silumgar, the Drifting Death.

The currently existing card to watch out for in U/B Control include Dig Through Time, Pearl Lake Ancient, and Perilous Vault. Another card with possibilities is Prognostic Sphinx if U/B Control shifts towards selecting it as their finisher. Though most would argue that Pearl Lake Ancient is superior, the metagame could shift in another direction and make the Sphinx shine instead however unlikely that may seem right now.

Last Thoughts

I’m no professional deck builder but I’m starting to see how the pieces of the puzzle might fit together. Depending on what type of Standard strategies start dominating after Fate Reforged is released could spell different price trajectories for different cards. If a whole new archetype spawns and is good, like the B/W Warriors deck that seems to be taking form through the collective Magic mind on the internet, then a whole slew of card prices may be affected. Even just slight modifications to existing archetypes could help other cards see a small bump in price, or even make other cards that were on the fence change in price one way or the other depending on if they make the cut or not in Fate Reforged Standard.

What cards do you foresee making an impact on Standard from Fate Reforged? What cards from other Standard sets do you see as important role players in the new Standard format?

One question that I didn’t address was if any Fate Reforged cards are eternal playable. Do you think any cards are eternal playable that should be discussed further?

Tune in later this week for in depth coverage of specific Fate Reforged cards and what their future price may hold.

MTGStocks completed a great favor for the community when it released the list of 2014’s biggest risers and decliners of the year on January 1st. Starting with a request from Corbin, these two lists were soon noticed by myself and others for the valuable input they can provide to the community.

Rising to the Top

The first insightful observation came from James Chillcott, who noticed that eighteen cards out of the top twenty risers of the year all started at less than $1 in value on January 1st 2014. To give examples from the risers list, this means that if you bought in on cards like Choke, Stoke the Flames, Forked Bolt, and Orzhov Pontiff in January of 2014 you would have made out incredibly well if you held onto them until now.

Of course, there is a significant danger in pointing this out. Many of the cards that made the top gainers list were either uncommons or came from pre-constructed sets. In other words, it would be very risky to pursue cards based on the uncommon rarity characteristic in hopes of seeing them receive humungous gains like the data shows. We can actually relate these gains to penny stocks. Sure, penny stocks regularly see the gains that cards like Fatestitcher can reach. I’ve even seen some penny stocks reach heights of 10,000%+ gains. Does this mean that it wasn’t risky to go after it? Of course not! Penny stocks are some of the most volatile assets on the market and I would argue that many gainers of the year fall into this category. Look at how many of them are uncommons or were printed in a pre-con or other supplementary product.

Fatestitcher (U)

Forked Bolt (U)

Choke (U) (made the top twenty twice, had two printings)

Blackmail (U) (made the top twenty twice, had two printings)

Squelch (U)

Flames of the Blood Hand (U)

Monastery Swiftspear (U)

Stoke the Flames (U)

Battlefield Forge (R) (more than one printing, and this card actually made the list twice due to becoming Standard legal and having all the printings rise due to the demand from Standard)

Reef Worm (R) (C14 mass printing)

The rest, which only have one printing so far and not in a supplemental product:

Waves of Aggression (R)

Stony Silence (R)

Orzhov Pontiff (R)

Porphyry Nodes (R)

Norin the Wary (R)

Phyrexian Tyranny (R)

*Onakke Catacomb (S) – One interesting “card” that made the top twenty that surprised me was Onakke Catacomb, a planechase Plane card that is only used in the casual format planechase. Yes folks, these cards have value too! If you happened to purchase any of the past planechase sets I would recommend busting out the oversize cards to check them for value. You never know which ones might be worth several dollars these days.

OK, so in reality only six of the top twenty cards that made the list only had one printing, weren’t an uncommon, and weren’t printed in a pre-con. One interesting trend is that none of the cards are mythic rare – this means that mythic rares as a whole are much more stable price wise than rares and uncommons even if the mythic rare turns into a bulk mythic. Another trend amongst these remaining six cards is that they are all from out of print sets.

Let’s take a look at the data another way. Sorting the risers list by highest price rather percentage change tells a different story. The top twenty gainers pricewise from 2014 are as follows:

The blue chip list, as David Schumann would say, provides insight into the most expensive cards that have had the largest gain this year. Revised dual lands fall into this list, but we also have some hard-to-find Legends cards that have shown up in addition to Modern, Commander, and Legacy staples. What surprises me most is the percentage gain that each of the cards has seen – all of the cards on the list gained at least 77% or more! The average amount that a card on this list gained was 110%!! Overall, this list tells me that Modern as whole has gotten very popular over the course of 2014 but also that the casual market, as always, reaches out with their invisible hands as well to create even higher prices for cards like Invoke Prejudice and In the Eye of Chaos.

Fall from Grace

We can’t talk about winners without also discussing who the biggest losers of 2014 were. Going back to the MTGStocks page, the biggest decliners of 2014 as you might guess were most likely to be a Standard card. In fact, out of the top twenty there were sixteen cards that were just previously Standard legal or have become Standard legal in 2014. The only four cards to buck this trend were:

Misdirection

Unexpectedly Absent

Stifle

Muzzio, Visionary Architect

Each of these cards fell at least -71% from their highest historical price of 2014. Strangely enough, two of those cards are Legacy playable and have been played in some of the top tier Legacy decks of 2014.

My theory for why this happened is twofold. Firstly, three of the cards were from Conspiracy which was a set released just last year. This means that stores had pre-order and release prices that in no way reflected the actual demand of the card. Once the initial “gotta have it NOW!!!” demand was depleted the stores had to lower the price to meet the actual market demand. Unfortunately, due to the somewhat large print run of Conspiracy and the fact that the cards were not Standard legal this meant that the price had to be considerably lowered from initial expectations of what stores thought the price should be.

Secondly, the cards Misdirection and Stifle were both reprints of Legacy-only cards, which will pretty much always significantly reduce the current price of a card. I’m not surprised that they fell so much but the surprisingly deep fall of Misdirection in particular is quite shocking. We might look to the sage advice of buy low and sell later once the price has risen higher. The current $3 for Conspiracy Misdirection could change easily edge upward as time goes on since its Mercadian Masques counterpart is around $10.

Speaking of buy low and sell high, the blue chip cards are the ones I would be most particular about watching for buying in at a lower price. Let’s see which cards by highest price have dropped considerably during 2014.

As you probably surmised, the Onslaught fetchlands were going to be on this list due to their recent reprinting in Khans. Thankfully, Khans has also negatively affected the prices of the Zendikar fetches as well since players can easily replace a Zendikar fetch with a Khans fetch in a pinch. This means that fewer Zendikar fetches are needed in Modern these days, so therefore lower prices on the enemy fetches too.

The most expensive card that has dropped considerably in price is the Player Rewards Wasteland, which has dropped $100 during 2014. If you’re in the market for foil Wasteland, this could be the deal that you’ve been waiting for.

In terms of undervalued cards, I would put Voice of Resurgence as undervalued as well as Dack Fayden and Mutavault. I think these three cards, either due to casual or tournament demand, are going to start rising in price over this year and would be surprised if they continued to further decrease in price (unless they are reprinted of course, and then a drop in price is definitely not surprising).

Trends Seen in 2014

In terms of overall trends for cards in 2014, we can see that the top risers percentage wise were the penny stocks that happened to get noticed and explode in price – seemingly overnight. Price memory is a powerful force, since many of the cards in this category really haven’t put up too many results and yet still continue to demand a higher price going into 2015. I would stay away from almost all these cards, as they could all be reprinted again at some point and have already spiked.

Looking at the blue chip gainers, we see that many are reserve list cards that have become noticed and picked up by casuals and tournament players alike. However, we also need to be cautious with this list too since cards like Noble Hierarch and Twilight Mire are included among their number – cards that we know are going to be reprinted eventually and that it is only a matter of time before they drop in price. Like any investment, please do your research even on these blue chip cards to determine if they are ones you should be picking up for value.

Lastly, even the losers have lessons to teach us. What I have gleaned from them are that Standard staples drop the absolute hardest upon rotation and after they are forgotten about (Blood Baron of Vizkopa being the primary example here) so it is best to get rid of these cards when they have peaked in price during the Standard season. Also, Legacy-only staples that are reprinted will drop precipitously from a reprint, so watch for any Legacy reprints to get the most value out of your currently owned Legacy stuff. Finally, be aware that the reprinting of a cycle of previously valuable lands can have drastic effects on the other colors even if those color pairs aren’t reprinted right away.

Not to say that there isn’t potential in the losers. Cards that are otherwise popular can sometimes drop in price simply due to a current overabundance of them in the market. Once they’ve circulated for a while, even after declining the price can start to rise again if the card generates significant tournament and/or casual demand.

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