By: Jared Yost

There has been a lot of buzz going on in the Magic finance community over the past few months. It all started with Modern. Unless you’ve been hiding under a rock, you’ve noticed that Modern card prices have gone crazy – and will continue to go crazy throughout the summer PTQ season. Then, all of sudden everyone had an interest in Legacy cards. Starcitygames and others have been upping their buylist and sell prices on format staples like dual lands and other cards like City of Traitors, Sneak Attack, Wasteland, and Stoneforge Mystic have all increased significantly in price. Like others have pointed out, this is most likely because people saw that they could trade away or buylist their Zendikar fetchlands for a hefty credit towards the rarer Revised dual lands for Legacy or Commander and decided it was a no-brainer to pick them up.

Speaking of Commander, the most recent buzz surrounds casual cards. That’s right, cards from the very first release of the Commander products (called just Commander) are now starting to see new highs. Let’s check out the current prices on the first Commander set:

All Cards in Set (with Fair Trade Price $3 or more)

If I would have told you one year ago that Stranglehold would be the third most valuable card from this expansion I’m pretty sure I would have been laughed out of the room. Yet, there it stands at ~$16 trade value below Kaalia and Flusterstorm.

Other recent price corrections that have occurred put Edric and Damia in the top five. Edric doesn’t seem very surprising to me because in Legacy he seems like he could provide a lot of benefit to the correct deck. But Damia? That correction was purely from casual demand.

Even cards like Ghave are not safe. Two weeks ago he was $2.50 and now has spiked up to $10. Well, spike isn’t the correct term in this case – it really is a price correction based on market demand as more casual players try to build additional Commander decks and stores have followed suit.

This makes me wonder what else from the first Commander release has a lot of potential? I’ll separate my cards to watch into several categories to let you know where I think each will fall in the long term.

Most Probable for a Price Correction

Animar, Soul of Elements
Chaos Warp
Riku of Two Reflections
Karador, Ghost Chieftain
The Mimeoplasm
Nin, the Pain Artist

I think that out of all the cards that haven’t corrected in price those listed above are next in line. Most of the cards in this list are legendary creatures from the original Commander precons that were created specifically for that expansion. Outside of future Commander products these cards are very hard to reprint because their lore is so specific. Until new Commander products are released that utilize the wedge colors again I don’t foresee these cards coming down in price. In fact, I can see them continuing to go up due to the rise in popularity of Commander as a format and the fact that they haven’t seen price corrections for quite some time.

I put Chaos Warp in this list because I feel that for a removal spell this strong in red, a color that basically has no way to deal with enchantments outside of colorless spells and Chaos Warp, it really has nowhere to go but up. I especially like foils from the Commander’s Arsenal at $25. The only caveat I would give here is that this could possibly be printed in Conspiracy. Judging by the power level of the recently spoiled Dack Fayden I could totally see Chaos Warp being in that set just to get more copies out there. Nin could also be a potential inclusion as her ability is very political.

Solidly Trending Upwards

Hydra Omnivore
Grave Pact
Tariel, Reckoner of Souls
Spell Crumple
Basandra, Battle Seraph
Akroma, Angel of Fury
Skullbriar, the Walking Grave
Sewer Nemesis
Hornet Queen
Vish Kal, Blood Arbiter

Already experienced major price increases yet still apply to this category:

Flusterstorm
Kaalia of the Vast
Stranglehold
Edric, Spymaster of Trest
Damia, Sage of Stone
Ghave, Guru of Spores

The cards here have corrected in price or are already fairly pricey, though now they are at a price where I don’t think they will double up again in one shot. I think they will now slowly creep up over time.

Some cards in this category don’t scream “Price correction!” to me but I believe still have a good shot of increasing in price over a longer period. Cards like Tariel, Basandra, Skullbriar, Vish Kal, and Sewer Nemesis are good examples – these are all great casual cards yet they are on the weaker side of the card pool from the first Commander products. I think it will take them longer to reach a higher price than they are currently selling. 

On the other hand, cards like Akroma, Hornet Queen, Spell Crumple, Grave Pact, and Hydra Omnivore are all solid casual cards that may not see exponential growth (outside of being featured in an eternal format top 8 decklist) yet still have some room to grow in the long run. The reason I don’t think they will price correct as fast as the first category is because Akroma has two printings, the other cards I mentioned aren’t build-around-me cards, and they all require solid commitment to their colors to be included within a deck that utilizes them. Akroma has been seeing some hype recently due to her potential Modern applications, so it could double up just based on that. In the long term though, I believe the price of these cards will have a relatively stable upward trend.

I’m also including the cards here that are the most expensive from the set because, frankly, they can certainly get even more expensive. However, due to many of them already increasing in price substantially fairly recently (or already being expensive) they’ll probably take longer than the first category to experience another shoot up in price. Be on the lookout for them to be sure, as most are fairly hard to reprint, though also keep in mind these could take longer to go up again.

Will Trend Upwards but Fear the Reprint

Scavenging Ooze
Oblivion Stone
Garruk Wildspeaker
Path to Exile
Ghostly Prison
Sol Ring
Austere Command
Skullclamp
Lightning Greaves
Mother of Runes
Homeward Path
Command Tower

All of these cards are great casual targets. They all have decent trade value because casual players love to use these in their decks. However, I would be hesitant to pick up extra copies of these cards because they all have seen at least two printings, with a few seeing several, which means that Wizards has no problem reprinting them to get more copies out there. They are also more generic than legendary creatures and can be more easily included in new casual products or future sets. I would only acquire the copies you need and not try to hold onto these in the long term.

Scavenging Ooze may be the only exception to this rule as it sees heavy Modern play. Though it is played in 30% of the decks in Modern, it usually only averages about two copies per deck so that could stabilize the price a bit. I thought picking up Scavenging Ooze at around $11 was a good idea and have yet to recover from that (thankfully, I also picked up a ton of Mutavaults at $11 so I guess I’ll take the bad with the good.) I still have hope that Scavenging Ooze can trend upwards in the summer. I will wait until then to see if I can get a better price. If I can, that’s good and I will sell out of my stock. If not, I still plan to sell out because if they don’t rise for Modern this summer it is going to take a while for them to reach $15 or higher. In that time, Wizards could decide that the ooze needs another reprint in Modern Masters 2 or a supplementary product. I want to minimize that risk as much as I can.

Final Thoughts

Looking at the highest priced cards from the first Commander precon set we can see there are a lot of cards that deserve further analysis for future price trends. Trying to predict casual all stars can be hard at times, as casual players usually like cards that I as a spike can sometimes overlook. (Consuming Aberration was pointed out recently to me by Travis.) Who would have thought Stranglehold would be so valuable? I try not to get frazzled by these sometimes capricious prices for casual staples but that is something I am looking to improve upon by writing articles like this. Think I’ve got something completely wrong? Think I’ve missed anything that is less than $3 retail that is poised to go up over time from the original Commander set? Please, leave me a comment. The more we all know the better we can get at seeing what exactly casual players desire from their cards.

By: Jared Yost

All of Journey Into Nyx has been officially spoiled so l want to identify cards that have received a fair amount of buzz from the set, what the preorder price of those cards are, and what I think will happen in the future once the cards start seeing Standard (or other) play.

GODS

I think that Athreos is the most powerful god in Journey Into Nyx. He will fit well into future B/W/x aggro strategies and will make your opponent think twice before wiping the board. At three mana he is the cheapest of the gods along with Pharika. Is he worth it at the current preorder price of $20? Unfortunately, after much consideration I can’t say that I am comfortable with a $20 buy in and my advice is to wait this one out. I don’t foresee him becoming a format staple like Sphinx’s Revelation across multiple deck archetypes or providing the signficant backbone of several decks like Domri.

Athreos is not going to drop much (or even at all) as many people see the power that he offers Standard. However, Standard is going to need a shakeup before the Athreos will see gains in price. In the mean time, I recommend that you look into other potential pieces of the Athreos deck and see if you can’t get them for cheap:

Obzedat, Ghost Council
Xathrid Necromancer
Imposing Sovereign

I am thinking Keranos will see Standard play in U/R/x builds because he gives you incremental advantage every upkeep which is exactly what control decks are looking for. The closest comparison I can think of is when Staff of Nin was in Standard. That card saw play as either one or two copies in control decks and I can see Keranos filling that same role especially because his ability interacts so well with scry. You can really take advantage of his ability and have more power over choosing whether you want to deal damage or draw cards if you can scry for two or more (Prognostic Sphinx anyone?).

Preorder prices are averaging $13 for this god which I believe is accurately assessing his power level and the amount of play he will see. I don’t think he can go much lower than this so trade for your copies if you know you want to play him. His ability is powerful but I doubt that any player will need more than one or two for their deck as he is rather expensive and doesn’t have an immediate effect on the board. He doesn’t have much room to drop and growth could be substantial if he is adopted across several archetypes. Foils of this will be sought after.

Iroas really excited me the first time I saw him. It’s basically a combination of Gruul War Chant and Dolmen Gate that is indestructible!? Sign me up. This guy is going to be awesome in R/W aggro builds that want to take advantage of his ability. The only downside is he is really just a win-more card. He can’t help you against control decks but can be insane as a finisher card in an aggro deck.

At the current average of $14 I would wait a bit to purchase him even though his abilities are really powerful. I would be looking to pick him up over the summer in anticipation of seeing him in Theros-heavy aggro decks during Standard rotation at the end of the year. Until then I don’t think his $14 price tag is worth the preorder price.

At first I wasn’t very impressed with this god. I was expecting something a bit more overtly powerful but I reassessed the card and realized that Kruphix is a deceptively powerful god. Being able to float any of your mana, whether from lands or mana rocks, is a crazy powerful ability in Commander. Also having no maximum hand size is great for casual formats since blue based decks generally draw lots of cards and can’t use them fast enough. I would expect foils of this to command a premium.

Kruphix is preordering for $9.50 which is close to it’s real price but I think there is still room to drop. In Standard he just doesn’t offer enough to command a price near $10. I think that $6-$7 is where Kruphix will end up and that you want to be on the lookout for copies once it starts dipping down in price.

I had such high hopes for the B/G god that cost only three mana but we only got a card that is marginally worse than Scavenging Ooze which sees play in only about 12% of decks. Making deathtouch snakes is a pretty cool effect for casuals and Commander but Standard will not drive its price very far at least for now. Stay away and wait for her to drop into Karametra range before picking up.

DICTATES

I like the dictates for what they offer in casual and multiplayer formats but I don’t see them making a big splash in Standard, except for maybe Dictate of Heliod as one or two copies in an aggro deck. I’ve noticed a lot of sellers offering Dictate of Heliod at around $0.35 to $0.50 preorder – this is really low for a potentially game breaking effect. Certainly trade for these if you feel that you will be playing a white based aggro deck in Standard.

LANDS

Mana Confluence is a powerful land that will have an impact on Standard throughout its life. No more does the two color aggro strategy need to hope for the perfect draw of colored lands or tapped fixing in order to play out their hand – City of Brass 2.0 comes into play untapped and lets you execute whatever plan you need based on the cards in your hand.

There has been a lot of controversy surrounding Mana Confluence’s price. Some think that it will break the $20 barrier and stay there for its entire life in Standard. Some say that it is clearly overhyped to the max and will drop down to a more reasonable $7-$8 while it is in Standard because control decks clearly don’t want to play this and aggro won’t be so keen on having to keep pinging themselves in order to cast their spells.

It is currently preordering for $17-$18 without much wiggle room between vendors. I think a lot of people are going to scramble to pick up this land right away because they feel they will need it in Standard. Due to this mad scramble, I honestly think this land won’t be dropping below $15 for the entire time is in Standard. If you need them, they will only go up as we approach the fall rotation because mana fixing is going to be even harder once shock lands rotate out of Standard.

As for the new scry lands, I would pick them up if you need them but otherwise stay away until the summer. The U/R scry land in particular will be be a good pickup for the future because I foresee Keranos getting some play if not in this Standard season then definitely next year.

First Green and White Planeswalker!

Though in my opinion the laziest ultimate of any Planeswalker, I still think the first two abilities are solid since they are both +1 effects that enable G/W decks to accomplish amazing feats. Pumping up your creatures permanently or searching your deck for auras, creatures, or planeswalkers are powerful effects. At five mana this version of Ajani is pretty pricey but since he is in green I could see him coming out a turn earlier quite often. Starting at four loyalty is a nice bonus as well.

Ajani is currently pre selling for around $24, which is very surprising as I think he is much better than Kiora which is still around $20. Still though, at $24 is he worth it? I would say – not yet. There isn’t an established G/W deck that is currently rocking Standard, so if you do buy in at $24 and the deck doesn’t appear until next year you are sitting on Ajani for quite a while when instead you could be picking up unrealized Modern potential. Also at five mana I can’t see him being played that much, but again I was wrong about Elspeth, Sun’s Champion so this could indeed see a lot of play inside a Junk or Naya shell. At least he will retain the appeal of being the first G/W planeswalker.

Godsend

This equipment is pretty crazy, don’t get me wrong, but I don’t think we’re quite on the level of Batterskull here. I see this card being very powerful in Legacy where True-Name Nemesis is all over the place and this equipment makes their TNN unable to successfully block any of your guys. It also prevents them from casting future TNN’s if they do decide to block.

Unfortunately, this equipment does not offer any type of “real” protection (as in, protection from a color, hexproof, etc.) nor does it have an immediate impact on the board state once it hits the battlefield. It also is restricted to white, so again unlike Batterskull the applications are more limited in formats like Legacy and Modern.

In terms of Standard, I can see it making an impact in white based aggro strategies but right now those strategies are suppressed by more dominating decks. I would wait until summer to get this equipment as I don’t think its current average of $13 is worth buying in. Once more aggro decks are present after Return to Ravnica rotates then it will be in higher demand.

Enchantment Creatures

All of these enchantment creatures, while having unique and somewhat powerful effects, all say “almost” to me.

While Eidolon of the Great Revel seems like it would be good in Legacy, its older brother Pyrostatic Pillar sees almost no play currently. Storm decks have been nerfed over the past decade by more powerful creatures as the game starts to stabilize itself as a creature based rather than spell based game. While Eidolon of the Great Revel is a step in the right direction I don’t think it will make a significant impact on eternal formats outside of being played in Legacy Burn. For Standard, I don’t think it will be played much either because you really want this in a control deck but control decks aren’t casting early creatures just to wipe them out later.

Eidolon of Blossoms has a sweet Constellation mechanic, probably the most powerful in a bottle from Journey, but being printed as the buy-a-box promo does stabilize the value significantly. In addition, its sisters Enchantress’s Presence and Argothian Enchantress are strictly better in the the Legacy Enchantments deck. Verduran Enchantress has existed for a long time and has never seen Legacy play so I don’t think this one will either. Whether or not it is played in Standard remains to be seen but I think if it goes below $0.50 you may want to pay attention to it.

Master of the Feast is a bigger body than Herald of Torment, but I think that the card advantage this offers your opponent is too much over the course of the game. I don’t think this will enable it to see top table Standard or other format play.

Aegis of the Gods grants you hexproof, which is nice, but like True Believer and cards that have come before it this is a sideboard ability at best. It is a Soldier, which puts it in a better creature type, but most of the time this guy won’t be any better than Goblin Piker until the right matchup comes along.

Other Goodness

Deicide is a great removal option for the plethora of gods that Standard will eventually see. A cross between Erase and Memoricide/Cranial Extraction for gods, I have a feeling that this will see a lot of sideboard play in Standard. However I do not think that being a sideboard card warrants it to maintain a price above $3. It is currently preselling for about $3.20 so I would wait a bit for this one to drop in price. Sideboard cards usually wind up in the $1-$2 range before going back up if they are really important against a particular strategy. Trade for them when they get close to a $1 because I feel they will see plenty of Standard play. See Grafdigger’s Cage as a prime example. It only recently started trending upwards in price. During its time in Standard it was around $1.

Prophetic Flamespeaker is quite interesting. It has double strike and trample, a combination never seen before on a card. It also allows you to cast spells whenever it hits a player and even potentially play a land and cast a spell. At first I thought the spells were free, and if so then I would be all over this guy. Alas, the spells are not free. Yes if you hit your land drops accordingly and the spell is on curve you could play it but you otherwise need to have enough mana to cast those spells. Being a 1/3 for three is also pretty marginal without any kind of evasion. You really need something like Madcap Skills to make this work, which I think is starting to ask for a lot when trying to build a strategy around him in addition to not playing your lands or saving mana for spells he will reveal. Wait this one out. I have a feeling he will either stay at his $8 price due to untapped potential or coming further down in price if he sees no play.

Battlefield Thaumaturge is pretty amazing with Fireball and its cousins like Comet Storm. This makes it awesome casually but is this ability enough for it to see Standard play? It makes your removal cost one less when targeting your opponents creatures which is cool. However, Standard removal is already pretty efficient for the colors it needs to be so I don’t really see this mattering much in Standard. Giving itself hexproof until end of turn is nice but I don’t think it really makes it that amazing when you have to cast a card to make that happen. He is currently preselling for $3 which I think is too high. I would wait for this one to drop a bit more before picking up.

Summary

Journey Into Nyx shares one similar characteristic to Born of the Gods which is that I’m not advocating that you preorder anything from the set, at least from a Standard perspective. This isn’t that surprising though because 99% of the time preordering cards for profit won’t work. Casually the set is filled with all stars and the casual cards have a significantly higher power level than Born of the Gods. If you are looking to pick up cards for casual purposes there are plenty of fairly priced preorders for this because in the far future many of the cards will still hold casual appeal and the price should reflect that.

Heading into the near future the cards to watch are:

Athreos, God of Passage
Iroas, God of Victory
Dictate of Heliod
Mana Confluence
Ajani, Mentor of Heroes
Godsend
Eidolon of Blossoms
Deicide

You want to keep an eye on Temple of Malady and Temple of Epiphany as well in the summer so that you can pick them up on the cheap. Then trade them later when Return to Ravnica rotates out of Standard.

This week I would like to take a look back on cards that I was watching before Born of the Gods was released to see where they are currently in price and what I expect from them moving forward. Before I start, I want to quickly mention that I’m now on Twitter and you can follow me @gildedgoblin.

Mythics

Brimaz, King of Oreskos

Presale Price in January: $23-25

Current Price: $27.50

Looking at the chart below, we can see that Brimaz started out around $30 retail once Born of the Gods was released (many presales were available on TCGPlayer for far less though, some as low as $23) then within a month of the set release he spiked to $42, and then throughout March and April he has been on a steady decline to current the retail price of $27.50.

Many would consider him to be the best card in Born of the Gods so why is the price on Brimaz going down? If we browse the statistics on mtgtop8 for Standard cards we can see that he is played in only 4.4% of the current decks that are making Top 8 appearances. Even when he is played, he only averages three copies per deck. Clearly this didn’t warrant a $40+ price tag so Brimaz’s price has adjusted to reflect this demand.

My advice in January was to passively pick up Brimaz if you knew you wanted to play him but otherwise avoid him because he was a very risky target unless you knew you wanted to trade or sell back into the hype. Brimaz did spike yet it did not take long for him to come crashing down due to the commanding presence of devotion to black and devotion to blue decks that make up 33% of the current metagame. So far Brimaz has played out to my expectations however once Journey into Nyx comes out it could change the game again. Going forward, lookout for Brimaz to perform in any Standard decks throughout the summer and if he does well you should pick up your copies accordingly. If not, then wait until the set rotation because at that point Brimaz will be at his lowest and it will be the perfect time to pick him up. His board presence is very powerful so even if he isn’t played in RTR standard I expect he will almost certainly be played in THS Standard.

Kora, the Crashing Wave

Presale Price in January: $20

Current Price: $20

I expected Kiora to come crashing down to the single digit range but she has not done this yet. She is barely a presence in Standard, being in only 1% of the current Top 8 metagame, and yet still three months later her price hasn’t budged. My guess here is that the price will drop however not enough time has passed yet. Planeswalkers take more time to drop than other types of cards due to the awe factor, and I would say this one in particular has a lot of awe going on since it is the first UG Planeswalker that the game has seen. She is within the “Jace” casting cost range (the first sign of a good planeswalker) though I don’t think the abilities and starting loyalty will be enough to send her price soaring. Like Brimaz, wait this one out through Journey into Nyx and if she creates some buzz then try to capitalize on it. Otherwise pick her up in the fall for around $10 since she may see some play in the next Standard cycle.

Xenagos, God of Revels
Mogis, God of Slaughter
Phenax, God of Deception
Karametra, God of Harvests
Ephara, God of the Polis

Presale Prices in January:
Xenagos – $20
Mogis – $11
Phenax – $9
Karametra – $7
Ephara – $7

Current Prices:
Xenagos – $12
Mogis – $9
Phenax – $8.30
Karametra – $4
Ephara – $7.60

Xenagos has certainly dropped the most out of all the gods, going from as high as $25 retail in January to now $12 and less.

Based on what I said in January now would be the time to start picking up this version of Xenagos if you plan on playing Gruul Monsters or a similar build that will utilize him. He has dropped to that sweet spot of around $12 retail and can be picked up from TCGPlayer for less than $10. Though he is on the expensive side for a god his ability is really powerful and I can see him making a splash in Block constructed and the future THS dominated Standard.

I believe that Ephara has maintained her price because she is the second best god from BNG. She creeped up a bit in price because of the expectation that someone will break her but honestly I think it is going to take a lot to make this happen. Stay away for now until results are present since she could go a little lower. I did say to actively pickup Ephara as I don’t think it will drop below $5 and I still believe this yet at the same time I do not think they would trade away easily.

The other three gods have dropped or are continuing to drop slowly as many people realize that they are not a strong force in Standard. I don’t think Karametra can go much lower than $4 – if she does, I would be looking to pick up a lot of copies just to hold them for the long term (2+ years) because she is a great casual target. Phenax is a great target for the same reasons. I think as time goes on he will continue to maintain his price or even go up regardless of Standard demand. Mogis is not as weak or linear as Karametra or Phenax, however since he isn’t relevant in Standard and doesn’t hold a lot of casual appeal I would avoid him unless B/R or B/R/x becomes a thing in Standard. All said I would continue to hold off on these three gods. The Journey into Nyx gods could be really good so I want to wait and see which of the 10 are the best.

Other Mythics

Presale Price in January:

Flame-Wreathed Phoenix: $7

Chromanticore: $2

Champion of Stray Souls: $2

Current Prices:

Flame-Wreathed Phoenix: $2.50

Chromanticore: $2

Champion of Stray Souls: $1.40

Like I predicted, these mythics haven’t moved upwards and are all trending towards $2 and less. Champion of Stray Souls is a great casual long term target, especially foil copies. I would otherwise avoid these mythics.

Rares

(I skipped over bulk cards from the January article unless they have spiked in price since.)

Spirit of the Labyrinth

Presale Price in January: $7
Current Price: $2.20

Wow, this rare really dived in price. It went even lower than I predicted it would. I guess Legacy doesn’t really do much to drive the price of Standard cards when that card is not Deathrite Shaman. On the plus side, I don’t think she can go much lower than $2. Keep an eye out and if it drops even lower than start buying in.

BNG Temples

Presale Price in January (ALL): $4.50
Current Price:
Temple of Enlightenment: $9.45
Temple of Malice: $5.25
Temple of Plenty: $5.25

This is miss for me, at least in terms of retail prices. On TCGPlayer you can find Temple of Malice and Temple of Plenty for less than $4 and Temple of Enlightenment for about $6. Regardless, these lands haven’t dropped at all in price and in the case of Temple of Enlightenment have doubled up. 

In retrospect, knowing the U/W control deck existed before the U/W scry land was released should have been a warning sign. I should have foreseen that a scry land that fits into those colors would be in high demand. When you play a control deck you want to play more lands than an aggro or tempo deck because your land drops are really important. Having lands that fix your mana and provide additional bonuses like scrying are really powerful for control decks. I should have noted Temple of Silence and Temple of Deceit, which have stayed near $5 while the other non-Esper Theros scry lands lagged behind. Esper Control and Orzhov control are also decks in Standard, even if seeing Devotion decks all day might make you think otherwise. Temple of Enlightenment not only goes in Esper but also U/W control which helps drive demand. Demand is also driven by the fact that Temple of Enlightenment is in a small set, so there are less copies of them out there.

Going forward, I would expect the scry lands to start trending down in price. I believe they are still in their “spiking” phase. Wait until mid summer to pick them up at this point because that is when they will be at, or near, their lowest prices.

Herald of Torment

Presale Price in January: $2.50
Current Price: $1.60

Herald is starting to hover near bulk prices so I believe the time to start picking them up is now. I have a feeling that this Demon will see Standard play once Desecration Demon rotates, as he is a very efficiently costed flyer that also has the benefit of bestowing itself onto creature if you draw him later in the game. He is less than $1 on TCGPlayer. I am not sure if he can go any lower. Pick up your copies now before he starts trending upwards in price.

Courser of Kruphix

Presale Price in January: $4
Current Price: $9.20

I mentioned Courser briefly in January as I could not find a price for it at the time I wrote the article. When I saw it I thought the card was good for casuals however I missed the mark on how excellently it fit into Standard. This is my biggest miss from Born of the Gods. I’m not sure if the price can rise much more as it doesn’t provide ramp but I would keep a close eye on this card moving forward into the next Standard.

Uncommons

None of the uncommons from my article in January have gone above $2 retail yet. Not to say that they won’t, however I believe that throughout the summer they will continue to decline in price as Theros block is drafted. Keep picking up extra copies of these until the draft format stops. Then later down the road in the fall and winter you will be able to trade them well as they will be harder to find.

Final Thoughts

While the set’s mythics have followed my predicted price trajectory, I did miss Courser of Kruphix and Temple of Enlightenment, which have doubled up in price. For the most part though, unless you are playing Standard you want to stay far away from Born of the Gods for some time. Many of the cards are still propped up in price based on a hunch or predicted success in the metagame. I have a feeling we still haven’t seen the lowest prices on many of these cards so unless you are really sure of a pick from this set hold off until the summer to pick it up. Since the Standard season has been moved to the beginning of this year it ended a month ago so keep in mind that later in the year there will be less demand for Standard cards than there was in years past. Sealed Deck season continues until June 1st and then we move on to Modern PTQ season. Keep this in mind as you move forward and hopefully you can get some good Standard deals during Modern season from June 7th through August 24th.

By: Jared Yost

It’s that time again folks! As you may be aware these days cards seem to be spiking out of nowhere. Does the spike have merit, signaling a card has corrected itself in price? Is it just hype or a buyout where somebody thinks they struck gold but really it’s fools gold? Let’s take a look at the facts and try to analyze what’s going on here.

FNM Gitaxian Probe and New Phyrexia Gitaxian Probe FOIL

I think that this spike, in terms of what it was versus what it became, is very shocking. FNM Probe’s started at $2.50-$3 in January, with a minor rise to $4-$5 until last week, to the current spiked price of $15. From January until now that is a 500% increase. Similarly, NPH Gitaxian Probe foils were $4-$6 back in January and now are around $30 on tcgplayer. I knew it was a solid target but at the same time I was surprised at how far these two versions jumped because the card is a common. However, it just goes to show you that rarer forms of commons can certainly hold a premium price if they are sought after enough. An extreme would be foil Japanese Brainstorm which is worth about $340.

In general, Twitter contains some solid advice if you are following the right people for magic finance. Back in January, Twitter got me thinking about Gitaxian Probe foils (I believe @JasonEAlt made this tweet but unfortunately I couldn’t find it.) When I saw tweets about FNM Gitaxian Probe and Foil New Phyrexia Gitaxian Probe being criminally underpriced I looked into it further.

After my research, I also thought it was a solid pick for two reasons. First is that it is played in both Modern and Legacy, which means that foil copies will retain demand over time from the eternal players that eventually like to foil out their decks. Second is that Phyrexian mana spells are really hard to reprint since it is such a set specific mechanic. Everyone remembers Mental Misstep, so due to that huge mistake I think that Wizards is very hesitant to bring a mechanic like this back.

I then went to TCGPlayer and saw tons of FNM copies listed at $2.50 per piece and NPH foil copies listed from $4-$6. I thought that this was a low price considering the amount of play the card was seeing and picked up my copies accordingly. I’ve had them ever since and am glad I was able to capitalize on the Twitter advice.

Going forward I would say that the new price is going to stick especially for NPH foil copies. It is a card that is popular in both Legacy and Modern and I don’t see it going away for a long time due to it being a “free” spell.

Ancient Tomb

This spike, at least for me, was eerily similar to the Gitaxian Probe spike in terms of how I heard about it and the time it took from hearing that advice until the time that it decided to spike. Just like Gitaxian Probe, I first heard about Ancient Tomb on Twitter via the Brainstorm Brewery podcast. Being the counterpart to the other two-colorless land City of Traitors that is played in Legacy archetypes, they noticed that City of Traitors was $70 while Ancient Tomb was $10. Wasteland, which has gone over $130 recently, is a good example here of how underpriced Ancient Tomb was since it was from the same set. Although clearly Wasteland sees a ton more play than Ancient Tomb, $10 is quite low for a Legacy staple considering its power level.

Again, just like Probe, I checked out the price on TCGPlayer and the average in February was $10. Again, I picked up copies accordingly because I agreed that Ancient Tomb was popular and looked underpriced due to the play it was seeing. I regret not purchasing FTV: Realms copies of Ancient Tomb, since they are the only foil copy and have spiked way harder than the Tempest copies have.

For both, I believe that this new price is here to stay. A solid Legacy staple from an older set that will have a home in Legacy archetypes, it was only a matter of time before this happened.

Food Chain

Due to the hype that Food Chain received from being a playset in a namesake deck that came in 4th place at the recent SCG: Los Angeles Legacy Open on 3/23/2014, it is no surprise that others decided to buy in. It went from $5 to $13, which is interesting because the first time this card spiked is when Misthollow Griffin was first spoiled back in Avacyn Restored. Around then it jumped up to about $13 as well, but since no one could do anything with the deck at the time it dropped right back down to its original price of around $5 after several months. Now that a Misthollow Griffin deck featuring Food Chain has placed in a SCG Open Top 8, I believe the new price is here to stick and could even increase if the deck keeps seeing Top 8 or Top 16 appearances.

Besides Food Chain, other cards from this deck to watch include Manipulate Fate and Shardless Agent. Manipulate Fate may seem like a strange target but I like foil copies at $0.50. If others decide to build this deck, clearly $0.25 for an uncommon from a set as old as Invasion seems low. It wouldn’t hurt to pick up a playset for yourself if you plan on building this deck for a Legacy event. Shardless Agent has already proven itself as a solid card in Legacy, with an archetype to its name (Shardless BUG) and only one printing in a somewhat limited product. This new archetype could be what it takes to get the Agent over $20.

Autumn Willow

Huh, going from $1 or less to $5 suddenly seems strange for this Homelands rare. I’m guessing a buyout occurred on TCGPlayer where someone bought up all the copies in hopes of turning them around at a later point for profit. Unfortunately for them, this card just isn’t that good. I realize that is has pseudo-hexproof but it just can’t compete with the all the crazy new kids on the block these days. I’m not sure if it will be ever less than $2 due to rarity alone but it is certainly not worth $5 and definitely not worth buying in at this point.

Leonin Arbiter

Going from less than a $1 to $2-$3 may not be much of a spike but it is certainly a double up at the least. Leonin Arbiter is a fine card in the Modern Hatebear deck and even sees play from time to time in Legacy in Death and Taxes, although this appearance is much rarer than Modern. I can see why someone would be looking to pick these up. Though he isn’t as great as Thalia (which also has gone up recently) or Aven Mindcensor in Modern, he is still usually seen as a playset in the the Hatebear decks that do exist. Modern is still pretty wide open, so even though his price has already doubled I think he still has room for future growth. This current spike is just a price correction.

I wouldn’t be surprised if he even climbed as high as $5 during Modern season if Hatebears puts up any Top 8 results. I wouldn’t actively trade for these guys as he plays a limited role in only one deck archetype and is from a fairly recent large set, but if you plan on playing Hatebears try to pick up your playset before Modern season goes into full swing.

Silent-Blade Oni & Ghostly Prison

I’ll lump these two together because they are both spiking cards that derive their demand largely from the casual market. Ghostly Prison does see play in Legacy and Modern from time to time but clearly its demand is 95% casual.

Ghostly Prison has demand but its price is contingent on when the next reprint happens. Stocking up on these and then seeing Wizards announce a product where it is reprinted will be bad for whoever decides to buy in at $7. Wizards has already reprinted Ghostly Prison three times so they have shown they want to get copies out there. Stay far away from this one, since there is almost no demand from the tournament scene and it could be reprinted at any time. If you have extra Prisons trade them into more solid long term gainers.

On the other hand, my first impressions of Silent-Blade Oni missed the mark. Silent-Blade Oni has a good chance of sticking to the new price. I now realize that since it only has one printing and utilizes the block specific mechanic Ninjutsu, there are only so many products that this guy could go into besides Commander or something similar. I wouldn’t expect him to go up in price again for quite a while since it already spiked last month. Even if it does spike again, you would be risking a lot for something where there is not a lot of money to be made. Clearly the casual market is a strong force but I would look to other targets as there is not really much money to be made here for the amount of time that you will need to wait and having the possibility of a reprint loom over your head.

Volcanic Island, Underground Sea, Plateau

Well, I think we’ve all seen this before. Starcity has a track record of raising their buylist prices on Legacy staples like dual lands in the hope that people will sell them what they have… only to then increase their store prices on those same dual lands by a huge margin to match the buylist increase. This is because they have a huge pulse on the market, being one of the top retailers of Magic products in the world, and use their inventory data to make price corrections based on the actual demand some of these cards are seeing so that they can capitalize off the demand.

If you’ve been playing this game long enough, dual lands going up in price should be no shock to you. Be aware that these days they can really go up a lot without much time for you to react and pick up them before the next spike. Long term, they are great gainers since the Reserved List guarantees that we won’t be seeing them or anything like them again.

I do share similar feelings with Travis about Modern replacing Legacy, and once that paradigm shift occurs I also agree that the dual lands won’t be the cards that go down. They’ll just teeter off, and go up slowly but surely like the Power 9 does over time. The takeaway here is that if you want dual lands you will need to budget, act according to your own needs, and develop a purchase plan if you are looking to eventually pick them up. I predict that they will spike a few more times before Modern replaces Legacy so the sooner you are able to act the better.

Final Thoughts

Here to Stay:
– Foil versions of Gitaxian Probe (FNM, New Phyrexia)
– Ancient Tomb
– Food Chain
– Leonin Arbiter
– Dual Lands

Ancient Tomb, Food Chain, and Leonin Arbiter are the shakiest inclusions for this category because of the reprint fear. However, for these three cards I don’t see that being a factor for quite some time. If you want to acquire them the new price is your reality and you won’t be getting a deal easily but they will trade well.

Risky:
– Ghostly Prison
– Silent-Blade Oni

Cards that derive their demand from the casual market and are reprintable are risky pickups. I would stay away from these, but if I see a good deal on them I would take it in the hopes of trading them for more solid gainers.

Stay Away:
– Autumn Willow

No real play, either in casual or tournament environments. Outclassed by newer cards with better effects. Acquire for gains at your own peril.