By: Jared Yost

This week I would like to delve into the Fate Reforged clash pack to see if it is worth picking up in order to boost the value of your collection. I’ll look at both the MSRP versus retail value of the singles and then compare them to my opinions of what the future value of the cards will be after their rotation from Standard. I’ll also keep in mind that some of the cards from the decks are alternate art foil, which could reflect their future value.

For the alternate art foils, I am going to use the TCG Median price since MTGPrice does not yet track the value of specific clash pack foil versions of cards. I will note the special foils with an asterisk *.

Decklists:

POWER	$$$	PROFIT	$$$
1 Typhoid Rats	0.14	1 Baleful Eidolon	0.14
4 Satyr Wayfinder	0.64	1 Leafcrown Dryad	0.14
2 Necromancer’s Assistant	0.26	2 Brain Maggot	0.98
1 Herald of Torment	0.91	1 Nighthowler	0.46
1 Returned Centaur	0.13	1 Courser of Kruphix*	7.79
2 Sultai Soothsayer	0.48	1 Noble Quarry	0.19
2 Sultai Scavenger	0.30	2 Grim Guardian	0.42
1 Scuttling Doom Engine	1.48	2 Oakheart Dryads	0.30
1 Necropolis Fiend*	0.60	3 Nyx Weaver	1.68
1 Sultai Skullkeeper	0.13	1 Graverobber Spider	0.21
1 Merciless Executioner	0.28	1 Reaper of the Wilds*	0.83
1 Gurmag Angler	0.14	1 Eidolon of Blossoms	1.33
		1 Doomwake Giant	1.93
1 Despise	0.32	1 Loathsome Catoblepas	0.13
2 Taigam’s Scheming	0.20	2 Nemesis of Mortals	0.44
1 Set Adrift	0.24
1 Treasure Cruise	0.49	3 Commune with the Gods	0.60
1 Dead Drop	0.24	1 Reviving Melody	0.24
1 Annul	0.13	2 Dark Betrayal	0.44
1 Naturalize	0.15	1 Plummet	0.13
2 Sultai Charm	0.78	1 Defend the Hearth	0.14
2 Murderous Cut	1.52	1 Whip of Erebos*	3.00
1 Hero’s Downfall*	7.42	1 Font of Fertility	0.22
1 Sultai Banner	0.15	2 Vineweft	0.26
1 Sultai Ascendancy*	0.72	1 Debilitating Injury	0.17
1 Neutralizing Blast	0.23	1 Nyx Infusion	0.15
1 Monastery Siege	1.70
		2 Jungle Hollow	0.24
7 Swamp	0	12 Forest	0
5 Island	0	11 Swamp	0
5 Forest	0
4 Opulent Palace	1.88
2 Evolving Wilds	0.32
2 Dismal Backwater	0.28
Total	$22.26	Total	$22.56
		Deck Total	$44.82

The MSRP cost of the deck is $24.99, so picking up the clash pack seems like it offers you great value. However, the retail value of the singles versus the MSRP of the deck doesn’t necessarily mean its a great pickup. Let’s take a look at the more expensive pieces of the decks to see where the best value lies and if the the card is in a position to maintain value moving forward. Then, once all the information is laid out, we’ll have a better idea about the clash pack value.

Threats

Courser of Kruphix

Courser of Kruphix is a popular in card in both Standard and Modern, and this event deck offers an alternate art version of the card. I think that Courser has a very good chance of maintaining a stable price through rotation. I don’t think the card goes below $5 because of its eternal playability applications. The alternate art version will be even more desirable in the future if it stays a Modern, Legacy, or Commander staple.

Hero’s Downfall

I think that Downfall has some room to drop after rotation. Even though this card is capable of killing planeswalkers at instant speed in addition to creatures, there is more efficient removal in eternal formats. The alternate art version will probably stay around the same price as the pack version in the future. After rotation, I’m predicting about a halving in value retail wise.

 

Whip of Erebos

Whip has a decent chance of maintaining $3 even through rotation due to Commander applications. It is a decent artifact for black Commander decks that gives them lifelink and recursion, all in one neat package. Even picking up singles of the clash pack Whip might be a good play for the future if you can get them for $2.50 or less.

Doomwake Giant

I’m not sure how Doomwake Giant goes above $2 any longer at this point. It was reprinted several times in its Standard life, so if you have any extra copies I would be looking to out them as the Standard season approaches May to June. This card isn’t very good in eternal formats so I would not look to pick up the event deck just to get Doomwake Giant on the cheap.

Opulent Palace (a full play set)

Opulent Palace is a good pickup if you can find them for $0.40 or less. The shards lands, before being reprinted in the Commander decks, used to go for $2-$3 at their highest point. Since then they’ve dropped to around $1.50 but that should still tell you something – even after three or so reprints the shard lands are still above $1. Picking any wedge lands you can get for $0.50 or cheaper seems like a fine play to me.

Monastery Siege

This card has room to drop, or possibly grow depending on what type of Standard play it sees. I haven’t seen it do much in Standard yet maybe next year it could have potential. Similar to Doomwake Giant, this probably isn’t going to do much outside of Standard.

 

Nyx Weaver

Not really a reason to pick up a clash pack – this card is pretty much just a casual, Standard-only playable card that is used to some effect in graveyard-based strategies though more so at FNM than at bigger events.

Murderous Cut

This card has the potential to be higher priced come next Standard season. It seems to be one of the premier removal spell from Khans block, so I will be watching it closely throughout the year for an uptick in play time.

Scuttling Doom Engine

Not really played in Standard, more a casual fan favorite than anything else. Still, if the card drops to $0.50 or lower after rotation I will probably be a buyer since it really only has nowhere to go but up from there on the back of casual demand. In terms of the clash pack, not a compelling reason to pick it up.

Eidolon of Blossoms

See my Doomwake Giant reasoning. I don’t really see it going anywhere unless a breakout deck happens after Dragons of Tarkir for some reason. Not a reason to pick up the clash pack.

Answers

Is There Value For You? Yes, there are other decent commons and uncomons in this clash pack like Sultai Charm, Brain Maggot, and Nemesis of Mortals, but let’s be honest with ourselves – we’re really only incentivized to pick this package up for the alternate art foils of the better cards in the deck.

The only alternate art foils in the deck that are worth a significant amount are Courser of Kruphix, Hero’s Downfall, and Whip of Erebos – hardly a compelling case to pick up the clash pack for future financial value. These three together are only $18.21, seven dollars below the MSRP price of the package. The alternate art, foil Whip of Erebos might have potential in the future, yet at $3 and less I would much rather trade for copies or buy in cash rather than picking up the clash pack.

This clash pack is targeted towards casual players, and I would say for them yes, this package is quite the deal compared to buying singles. You get plenty of good cards, like a playset of Opulent Palace, and you do get cards like Courser of Kruphix and Whip of Erebos that will hold most (if not all) of their value through the Standard rotation of Theros block.

It is also possible that other cards in the clash pack could be breakouts, however it is better to target those on a singles basis rather than through purchasing the package. I would also recommend against picking these up for long term sealed product gains, as there isn’t anything I find compelling that would make players want to buy this years down the road.

So all in all, the price is great compared to retail prices of singles, but if you’re already a serious Standard player you most likely already have all of these pieces and shouldn’t have a desire to pick one up. For the casual players out there, I say this is a great product for you – you get a ton of solid cards for about half the retail price. For those looking for specs from the package, I would say that the best spec target is the Whip of Erebos due to Commander (and possibly cube) demand.

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By: Jared Yost

Magic sure has some strange collectible items. You know all those tokens you get from drafting? Yeah, the ones that you throw away? It wasn’t always like that. Tokens used to be few and far between in the earlier days of Magic. They only used to be given out as promotional items or at other rare events. The older tokens are still around and have turned into collectors items. I still remember the time when I thought “Tokens? Who needs these, dice can just represent everything…” My, have the times have changed.

Since Magic has increased so much in popularity over time, the prevalence of tokens has also increased since having the physical representation added another layer of depth to the game. We like to see tokens being used on camera matches, for example, because it is much easier to distinguish them between all the other types of counters that are used on other permanents. Due to the prevalent use of tokens, players are more inclined to pick them up for decks they use to better represent game states (especially since Wizards seems like to creating new types of counters, it only makes the use of tokens more important in games).

Since I’ve recently had a fascination with discovering these types of rarer tokens, today I would like to share with you some of my findings.

Token Rarity Theory

Unlike Magic’s past, you probably don’t throw away tokens you crack in packs. For example, planeswalker emblems are notoriously harder to find than other types of tokens. I’m not sure what the statistical distribution of emblems are compared to other token types but I believe they are probably the rarest type of token to crack in pack. To peak my curiosity, I did some research on token rarity and found this interesting theory which I’ll quote below:

I couldn’t find an official answer, but I can make an educated guess based on how cards are produced in general.

Cards are printed in big sheets and then cut out and randomized. These sheets are grouped by rarity. You print sheets based on the desired ratio of rarities in the final product, e.g. 1 rare sheet per 10 common sheets if the two sheets are of equal size.

Sometimes, more than one copy of a cards is on each sheet. For instance, early sets, particularly the small sets which tried to simulate three rarity levels with only two print sheets, had multiple copies of some cards — this is why Camel is listed as “Common 5” in some collector guides, or why Knights of Thorn is an “Uncommon 1” (functionally a rare for The Dark). For a more modern example, consider mythic rares: mythics don’t get their own sheet; instead the rares sheet has two copies of every vanilla rare and one of each mythic.

This is undoubtably how the ads and tokens sheet is arranged as well: all of the ad and token cards are printed on one sheet, but there are multiple copies of the “common” tokens and few copies of the “rare” ones. For example, a whole sheet of around a hundred M13 ads and tokens might contain twenty goblins and only one Liliana emblem. The exact mix of cards is likely to vary from set to set, but you can get a good idea of the rarity of “rare” tokens if you know the overall sheet size.

The theory made a lot of sense to me. This would explain why its good to sock away all those Monastery Mentor tokens – they’re basically Young Pyromancer tokens yet even rarer since Mentor is a mythic and people will need lots of the tokens for decks that play him. Mentor tokens are close to $0.80 retail per token, which should come down once more Fate Reforged is released, but if Mentor becomes a powerhouse over the next Standard cycle you can bet that tokens will be in high demand. Look at how much Hornet Queen tokens go for right now – close to $2.50 per token!! That’s a lot for a card that isn’t even a card.

Higher Priced Tokens

Alright, let’s break down some of the more expensive tokens and see why they’re so high.

Soldier Token (League)

Price – $15 Median (Only two sellers selling on TCGPlayer as of the time writing this article)

Alright, so the first thing that popped out to me is that the token is from Theros, a current Standard set. I was not expecting the most valuable token on TCGPlayer to be this card. In truth, it isn’t – the Marit Lage token is worth more and I will get to that later. But still, a Theros token is worth $15? Why?!

Some of the comments on TCGPlayer help to explain the price. According to commentators, the price is set so high because they were promos given out to players who participated in something called “Gateway to Core” events right after Theros was released. Apparently, the events weren’t very popular, because even though every person that participated in them got a promo they are still really expensive for a token card.

The takeaway here is that if you want the pimped soldier token out there, this token would be it.

Marit Lage Token

Price – $18 Median (forty-eight copies listed at this median price – which means the token is actually popular and with a demand-based market price)

The reason that this token is so rare is because it was the Release Event Card (card being used very loosely here) at Coldsnap release events hosted at local game stores. Anybody ever been to one of those? I think not.

For the Legacy players amongst us, the Lands deck uses Dark Depths as the win condition. The token goes along with this land. What may not be obvious in the picture is that the token is foil – that’s right folks, the Marit Lage tokens are pretty much the only “easily” obtainable foil tokens around! Which is another reason why it is so collectable. So we have aesthetics and utility combined in this token to give it the current price.

As the most usable pimp token, I don’t see Wizards ever releasing this token in the same fashion ever again. Is $18 too high for a token? Yes. However, for a collectable item such as this, that $18 could easily double or more a few years down the road. Thanks Thespian’s Stage!

Squirrel Token (Odyssey)

Price – $13.50 Median (with six prices listed)

Similar to the Theros Soldier token, the Odyssey Squirrel token is worth so much simply because it is hard to find (being a Player Rewards promo and us as players no longer receiving player rewards). A token that I’m sure is close to Maro’s heart, the Squirrel token is a casual favorite because Squirrels as a tribe is both hilarious and somewhat powerful even though it hasn’t gotten any recent support outside of a reprint of Squirrel’s Nest in Conspiracy. For example, the age old Earthcraft combo I’m sure comes to mind, and in addition these squirrels and squirrel related cards all can utilize the token:

• Acorn Catapult
• Acorn Harvest
• Chatter of the Squirrel
• Deranged Hermit
• Druid’s Call
• Liege of the Hollows
• Nut Collector
• Squirrel Wrangler

Not that any of these cards are going to spike any time soon, since Squirrels is one of the  most casual of casual tribes, however it looks like Earthcraft has been steadily increasing in price over the last two years. It wouldn’t surprise me if a rare card from one of these older sets like Squirrel Wrangler or Nut Collector also starts steadily going up.

Lastly, I believe the token’s artwork and layout make it unique among existing tokens since Wizards took the token art direction in another way since the beginning days of token design.

Spirit Token (Planeshift)

Price – $8 Median (with six prices listed)

There are plenty of cards that make 1/1 White Flying tokens, with the most notable being Lingering Souls and Spectral Procession. Similar to the Squirrel token, I believe the reason this token is so high is due to the rarity of player rewards tokens. The artwork on this token is also very unique amongst spirit tokens, another reason to value it higher than spirit tokens from other sets that are 1/1 white flyers.

 Elf Warrior Token (DD: Elves vs Goblins)

Price – $7 Median (with four prices listed)

OK, there is no good reason why this Elf Warrior token is so high. The Lorwyn version, featuring the exact same art (with the only difference being the set symbol) is only $0.36. Clearly the price is artificially inflated due to the low print run of the duel decks.

 Elemental Token (M14 with Winona Nelson artwork)

Price – $2.40 Median (with two prices listed)

Strangely, this Young Pyromancer token was also printed in M14 along with another type of token that is only worth a fraction of the price. Only two sellers have it listed, so the price is either inflated due to this or the token is actually worth that much because players buy it out when it goes lower than $2.40.

It is a pretty cool looking token, I’ll give you that. Just not sure if it is $2.40 worth it unless you really need to see this artwork with your Young Pyromancers.

Saproling Token (Invasion)
Sliver Token (Legions)
Soldier Token (Onslaught)
Spirit Token (Champions)

Price – $4 to $8 Median (there are significantly more Sliver tokens on the market than Saprolings, Soldiers, and Spirits)

I would say all the above tokens are collectors items, with the most notable being the Sliver token and colorless Spirit with no abilities (which is produced from Forbidden Orchard). The Sliver tokens have seen a resurgence in popularity due to Sliver Hive, but also the longstanding popularity of Sliver Queen and her token making ability can’t be understated.

All four of these tokens have the unique players rewards artwork and should be watched for future growth as time moves on. All the tokens are produced by cards that are used in casual, commander, or competitive formats and will be collector’s items since they are hardly ever seen.

That’s All – For Now

I hope you’ve enjoyed my brief foray into expensive tokens. Surprisingly, there were both current and older tokens on the list. I wanted to highlight that the next time you’re thinking about throwing away that Wingmate Roc token you just opened or an emblem that you know will never go off (at least not competitively) that there is someone out there who is willing to pay at least a few cents for it – and if it’s popular enough significantly more than that.

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By: Jared Yost

One of the most important data items about a card’s value is something that Magic financiers have coined “the spread”. What we mean by this is how much does a store’s demand (buylist price) compare to the market demand for that same card (fair trade price)? By representing this demand mathematically we can make better predictions about a card’s future value rather than attaching emotional investment to it (This card is cool, its going to definitely be worth something!) or by our own perceived predictions of where the card’s price is going in the future.

Getting the Spread

To calculate the spread, you calculate the percentage difference between a store’s buylist price and the fair trade price of that same card. The smaller the spread value the more demand a store, or several stores, is driving for a particular card. Examples to demonstrate my point:

Flooded Strand Fair Trade Price – $19.99 Best Buylist Price – $14.25 Spread = 1-($14.25/$19.99) 28.71%

Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker Fair Trade Price – $13.29 Best Buylist Price – $7.40 Spread = 1-($7.40/$13.29) 44.32%

Flooded Strand is currently the most valuable card in Khans of Tarkir, with a fair trade price of $20. Stores also have a high demand for Flooded Strand since the buylist price is only about $6 less than the fair trade (or retail) value of the card. Because Flooded Strand has both the highest fair trade price and highest buylist price in Khans, and the difference between the two prices is smaller than a cheaper fair trade card like Sarkhan, we can see that a smaller spread means that your card is more valuable when buylisting to stores. Its pretty easy to see lower spread equals higher demand with the numbers laid out like above.

What About Negative Spread?

Now that we know that low spread equals more store demand, I want to talk about negative spread. Sometimes the demand for a card is so great that the spread will actually be a negative value. Negative spread, otherwise known as arbitrage, is the best type of spread to discover. MTGPrice does track this type of information using what we have dubbed the “MTGPrice.com ‘Free Money’ Arbitrage Tool”. There are two types of arbitrage:

1) Natural Arbitrage, which is the difference between one store’s demand of a card compared to another store’s demand. That is, one store’s buylist is higher than another’s selling price, which means you buy the card at the low sell price and then sell to the higher buylist price. The arbitrage tool mainly tracks this arbitrage type.

2) Market Force Arbitrage, which means that the average market price of a card is lower than a store’s buylist. This happens when a store can’t get enough copies of a card in stock at the current buylist price, so they have to raise their buylist price in order to attract people to sell to that buylist. Many times this new buylist price will be higher than a market average if a card has become really popular due to a new deck strategy being introduced in a format or if vendors are preparing for big events. One thing to note about this type of arbitrage is that it usually doesn’t last that long – once the store has enough copies, they will usually raise the retail price while keeping buylist the same or lower so that the spread widens (and their profit again increases).

Another article could be written on the data contained within the arbitrage tool, but suffice to say that arbitrage is the best type of spread to find. You can occasionally find this type of spread in Standard legal cards, however 99% of arbitrage is going to be cards that are Modern legal or older.

Bringing Khans Into the Mix

OK, so now that I’ve explained how spread works let’s see what some of the current prices for Khans staples are compared to their buylist prices. Below is a listing of cards that have a buylist price of at least $0.50 at an online retailer (copied from the Khans of Tarkir spoiler list).

Card Name	Fair Trade Price	Best Buylist Price	Spread
Flooded Strand	$19.99	$14.25	28.71%
Polluted Delta	$17.66	$11.25	36.30%
Windswept Heath	$14.57	$10.25	29.65%
Wooded Foothills	$13.37	$8.50	36.42%
Sorin, Solemn Visitor	$16.51	$8.00	51.54%
Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker	$13.29	$7.40	44.32%
Bloodstained Mire	$11.97	$7.25	39.43%
Wingmate Roc	$8.74	$5.40	38.22%
Dig Through Time	$7.41	$4.33	41.57%
Sidisi, Brood Tyrant	$6.64	$3.86	41.87%
Anafenza, the Foremost	$5.53	$3.00	45.75%
Siege Rhino	$5.51	$3.00	45.55%
Ashcloud Phoenix	$4.16	$2.25	45.91%
Clever Impersonator	$3.62	$2.20	39.23%
Jeskai Ascendancy	$3.38	$1.65	51.18%
Monastery Swiftspear	$3.17	$1.54	51.42%
Hooded Hydra	$3.23	$1.50	53.56%
Bloodsoaked Champion	$1.79	$1.25	30.17%
Rattleclaw Mystic	$1.83	$1.20	34.43%
End Hostilities	$2.37	$1.01	57.38%
Mantis Rider	$1.72	$1.00	41.86%
Surrak Dragonclaw	$1.83	$1.00	45.36%
Utter End	$1.94	$0.91	53.09%
Narset, Enlightened Master	$1.72	$0.89	48.26%
See the Unwritten	$1.91	$0.86	54.97%
Crackling Doom	$1.50	$0.83	44.67%
Butcher of the Horde	$1.87	$0.79	57.75%
Empty the Pits	$1.20	$0.71	40.83%
Savage Knuckleblade	$1.26	$0.70	44.44%
Crater’s Claws	$1.39	$0.66	52.52%
Deflecting Palm	$1.11	$0.56	49.55%

One trend you should notice right away is that the low spreads do not necessarily correlate with the higher priced fair trade cards, which indicates that stores are demanding cards different than the currently most expensive ones. Out of the top ten, Sorin, Solemn Visitor actually has the highest spread, which is definitely surprising for a planeswalker since they tend to be some of the more sought after cards. There could be many factors why Sorin has such a high spread but the takeaway here is that you are going to want to trade your Sorins rather than buylist them if you’re looking to get out of the Sorin market. You will get more value out of a trade rather than selling to a store.

Let’s take a look at the list in a different way, sorted by lowest to highest spread. The lowest spread cards are the perfect cards to send to buylists while the higher spread cards are the ones that you want in your trade binder when you hit up a local event.

Card Name	Fair Trade Price	Best Buylist Price	Spread
Flooded Strand	$19.99	$14.25	28.71%
Windswept Heath	$14.57	$10.25	29.65%
Bloodsoaked Champion	$1.79	$1.25	30.17%
Rattleclaw Mystic	$1.83	$1.20	34.43%
Polluted Delta	$17.66	$11.25	36.30%
Wooded Foothills	$13.37	$8.50	36.42%
Wingmate Roc	$8.74	$5.40	38.22%
Clever Impersonator	$3.62	$2.20	39.23%
Bloodstained Mire	$11.97	$7.25	39.43%
Empty the Pits	$1.20	$0.71	40.83%
Dig Through Time	$7.41	$4.33	41.57%
Mantis Rider	$1.72	$1.00	41.86%
Sidisi, Brood Tyrant	$6.64	$3.86	41.87%
Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker	$13.29	$7.40	44.32%
Savage Knuckleblade	$1.26	$0.70	44.44%
Crackling Doom	$1.50	$0.83	44.67%
Surrak Dragonclaw	$1.83	$1.00	45.36%
Siege Rhino	$5.51	$3.00	45.55%
Anafenza, the Foremost	$5.53	$3.00	45.75%
Ashcloud Phoenix	$4.16	$2.25	45.91%
Narset, Enlightened Master	$1.72	$0.89	48.26%
Deflecting Palm	$1.11	$0.56	49.55%
Jeskai Ascendancy	$3.38	$1.65	51.18%
Monastery Swiftspear	$3.17	$1.54	51.42%
Sorin, Solemn Visitor	$16.51	$8.00	51.54%
Crater’s Claws	$1.39	$0.66	52.52%
Utter End	$1.94	$0.91	53.09%
Hooded Hydra	$3.23	$1.50	53.56%
See the Unwritten	$1.91	$0.86	54.97%
End Hostilities	$2.37	$1.01	57.38%
Butcher of the Horde	$1.87	$0.79	57.75%

Right away we notice that there are three cards in the top ten lowest spreads that are less than $2 – Bloodsoaked Champion, Rattleclaw Mystic, and Empty the Pits. We can draw a conclusion from this that stores are trying to pick up as many copies of these cards as they can because their buylist is so close to fair trade price. If a card continues to generate great demand, the fair trade price will usually rise up to match that demand and then the spread will become greater as the fair trade price goes up while the buylist stays the same. In other words, cards with a smaller spread that are cheap to pick up at fair trade price are a strong indication that the retail price could rise in the future. This means they are potentially good speculation targets since stores are so eager to get their hands on copies.

Other cards vendors don’t have much confidence in, or maybe just have lower demand for the moment, include anything that’s higher than 50% spread. Notables here include Jeskai Ascendancy, Sorin, Solemn Visitor, Hooded Hydra, See the Unwritten, and Butcher of the Horde – these cards could go up in retail price over time if demand rises but right now it would be better to trade these cards rather than buylist them due to the spread being so high. Stores aren’t selling enough copies, and until they do they will be paying less to stock their inventory with these cards than something like fetchlands.

Anything that is between 40%-50% should be watched closely for signs of lower spread movement. Cards like Siege Rhino, Anafenza, the Foremost, and Ashcloud Phoenix are good examples since they are popular Standard cards that are fairly cheap pricewise yet demand from stores is slightly lower for these cards for one reason or another (market saturation, local metagame, etc.). Having a somewhat higher spread means that you could trade them well now but could also potentially get good cash returns from buylist prices in the future.

Data Alone Isn’t Everything

Just because we can calculate the spread and look at the numbers objectively doesn’t mean crazy things don’t happen. After all, cards spike in price out of nowhere all the time and their spread from the previous days gave us no indication this would happen.

The spread is just one of many tools that you can use to help identify potentially undervalued cards. I’ve certainly used it in the past to great success, however there are certainly times when I see a low spread but I’m still not convinced that a card is going anywhere for one reason or another. Empty the Pits would be an example now. It’s played in Standard but only in control decks and only as one or two copies, so the demand is probably coming from casual players and the Commander crowd rather than tournament demand. I don’t feel that this card is going to jump big any time soon, so even though the spread is lower I’m not going all in on this card.

Spread is important, however other factors like local market demand, the current Standard metagame, new set spoilers, and past evidence of utility should all also be considered if looking for potentially undervalued cards.

Last Thoughts

Spread can definitely be one of the more powerful tools for picking undervalued cards because vendors aren’t playing around when it comes to buylist – they’ve also done their homework to set prices where they want them, and if a buylist spread is getting smaller and smaller it usually is only a matter of time before that card’s retail price rises as well.

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By: Jared Yost

If you haven’t checked out Travis’ review of the Fate Reforged mythics and rares, I urge you to do so before you continue. I also highly recommend checking out James’ blog post on digging for dollars in Fate Reforged, which has helped shape some of my own opinions on the cards that I review in this article.

Now that your mind is full of the possibilities that await us in Fate Reforged, I present to you my set review of the uncommons and commons of Fate Reforged. Let’s first go over some ground rules like I did for my Khans uncommons and commons review.

Since covering just the mythics and rares was such a massive undertaking, Travis tasked me with covering the remaining uncommons and commons in the set that seem powerful enough to see Standard, Modern, Legacy, and even Cube or Vintage play. I’ll stick to Travis’ original article format for this and list out the uncommons and commons I like in the following order:

• White
• Blue
• Black
• Red
• Green
• Multicolored
• Artifact
• Land

I will not list the uncommons/commons that are bulk, since most uncommons/commons will be bulk and only a select few will wind up seeing tournament play. Also keep in mind that it is really hard for an uncommon to break a $2. In other words, unless the uncommon is insane then it will be hard for it to break $2 so don’t pick up tons of uncommons expecting them to spike in price. If an uncommon is really good also expect it to be in an event deck or other supplementary product, furthering the chance none of us will profit from it financially.

I think the best mind set to be in while reviewing uncommons and commons from a financial perspective is to think about the best way to pick them up cheaper than retail, which usually is to set them aside when you crack them or draft them so that you don’t later have to buy these cards at retail prices when you need them for a deck. Foils are nice pick ups for eternal playable uncommons and commons if they are powerful to be included in Modern, Legacy, or even Vintage decks. Many times I will prefer to pick up foil copies as they will retain more value in the long term.

Alright, let’s dive into the uncommons and commons of Fate Reforged.

White

Lightform
Outside of the Manifest ability, let’s look at what we get with Lightform – a 2/2 with flying and lifelink for three mana. That’s pretty efficient mana-wise. The double white makes it harder to include in decks yet if it proves powerful enough then I can definitely see it being played. If we include Manifest in the mix, then it becomes even better even though we don’t quite know the power level of Manifest yet.

This card is potentially Legacy playable as James pointed out in his preliminary review – the interactions Manifest has with Sensei’s Divining Top, Phyrexian Dreadnought, Enlightened Tutor, and other cards is there but I’m not quite sure if it is good enough without further support. It’s definitely not as good as the blue form, which grants hexproof, however flying and lifelink are still pretty strong on something like Phyrexian Dreadnought.

Regardless of the tournament play, casual player wise I think this is going to be a big hit. Foils are probably good targets and even non-foils could rise in price over time.

 

Mardu Woe-Reaper
We’ve certainly come a long way from Savannah Lions. A cross between Elite Vanguard and Scavenging Ooze, if Warriors becomes a deck in Standard you can expect a playset of this guy to be found in it. Keep any copies you get and hold onto them because if Warriors isn’t good now it still has potential down the road. Cheap foil copies of this card will be a nice pickup.

 

Soul Summons
I’m not sure if this card is any good but it is a cheap Manifest enabler, so if the Manifest emerges and plays any copies of this card then it could be good to stash away some copies for potential future growth.

 

Valorous Stance
This card is going slide very nicely into the currently existing U/W Heroic archetype and is also flexible enough to see play in other decks. I would target foils of this especially.

 

Wardscale Dragon
I wouldn’t bother with nonfoils here. Foils are good pickups for Commander, since eliminating players from casting spells during your combat is nice effect. Casual players will help boost the price of foils as well since many players like to collect foil dragons.

 

Blue

 

Cloudform
This is definitely an upgrade on its cousin Lightform in white. Flying and hexproof are a powerful combination of abilities and similar to Lightform you are getting at least a 2/2 flyer with hexproof for three mana – efficient enough for Modern and maybe even Legacy play. This card has applications in Standard as well, though I think it will shine the most in eternal formats. Picking up foil copies is a good move for the long term.

 

Frost Walker
Though quite fragile, two mana for a 4/1 is a pretty good deal. Just like in limited, in Standard this card is an easy enough Ferocious enabler and could potentially see play there. Definitely don’t pick these up with cash – collect them through limited events and as trade throw-in’s for potential long term gain once Theros block rotates from Standard.

 

Jeskai Sage
For some reason, this card seems pretty good to me in Standard. If you’re playing a deck based on prowess, for the most part this guy is a 2/2 for two that draws you a card when it dies. I think that’s a pretty good deal but I’m not sure if it is good enough for Standard – at least not this Standard. I’m going to be keeping an eye on Jeskai Sage for potential Standard play.

If not Standard, he is definitely Cube worthy. Cheap foils are worth picking up.

 

Marang River Prowler
Similar to the Sage above, this guy might be cute for Standard though I think it doesn’t quite gets there. If you target the river prowler do it for the Cube’s sake rather than Standard. Cheap foils could be a good speculation here.

 

Mindscour Dragon
Stick to foils here due to Dragon collectors and potentially Commander. The effect isn’t that good for this dragon since milling is kind of the opposite of your game plan when you’re beating someone’s face in with flying monsters. My hopes for Commander play could be dashed due to that but hopefully the 60 card casual players still salivate over Mindscour Dragon.

 

Neutralizing Blast
Seems OK in Standard yet multicolored can be real hit or miss depending on the matchup. I think this card will be relegated to sideboard play but could still retain value if more multi-colored cards start popping up in Standard over the next year.

 

Reality Shift
This card is pretty nice, especially in eternal formats. For two mana it turns an opposing beat stick into a 2/2 creature with no abilities. I’m not sure if it is good enough in Standard however it could wind up seeing play if Manifest turns out be a Tier 2 strategy.

Foils are good targets for Legacy, Modern, or Cube play.

 

Refocus
This could be an interesting cantrip trick for U/W Heroic or Jeskai Ascendancy shenanigans in Standard. In eternal formats, foils would be a better target than non-foil since Ascendancy in eternal formats relies on untapping creatures as part of the combo and this card can help continue the combo by drawing an additional card.

 

Black

 

Battle Brawler
Battle Brawler is quite an efficient Warrior – for two mana you get a 2/2 that becomes a 3/2 with first strike if you control a red or white permanent. I could definitely see this getting played in a B/W or other Warriors build in Standard. Pick up copies on the cheap whenever you can in case Warriors becomes a deck and it plays this card.

 

Dark Deal
As James mentioned, Dark Deal is quite the combo enabler. Black hasn’t really ever seen a card like this before so I’m definitely interested in seeing if it makes an impact on eternal formats. Picking up foils seems like the best bet long term as I don’t think it will see much Standard play.

 

Mardu Shadowspear
Dash is actually what makes this card awesome. Not only can you drop it on turn one if you want to play your deck on curve, during the late game you can Dash it into combat to take away those final points of your opponent’s life total if needed. This card isn’t that good during the mid game, which is a downside, but otherwise I think it is a fine card that has a good shot at being included in either a Warrior or other aggro deck.

Though Shadowspear is also the Game Day promo, which could be a good target if you want the full art version, I think nonfoil copies are also good to hold onto for potential future growth.

 

Merciless Executioner
Fleshbag Marauder as a Warrior seems good. You can put it into a tokens deck and use it to your advantage against non-token strategies. It might also might appear in a Warriors deck if it fits along the curve nicely. I’ll be watching this card as time moves along.

 

Noxious Dragon
Not amazing though again foils are nice target for the casuals and collectors of Dragons amongst us.

 

Typhoid Rats
No matter how many printings the Rats get, they always seem be worth at least a few cents on a buylist. Stock up on copies and one day you might find that they will surprise you when you go to collect.

 

Red

 

Collateral Damage
The new spin on Lightning Bolt, this card might not be Stoke the Flames but it is still powerful in token based strategies since you can just sack one of your tokens to Bolt something. Keep any copies you get aside to see if they’re worth anything eventually.

 

Humble Defector
I’m honestly not sure how this card will shake out. Giving it to your opponent is a huge downside that could turn this card into a Goblin Piker in many cases. Yes, there are magical Christmasland scenarios where you give it to your opponent, steal it back with Yasova, then use it again, yet I think that these scenarios are the exception rather than the rule.

What this card really needs are instant speed sac outlets that allow it happen without any side effects, kind of like Collateral Damage. Hmm, maybe there is something to this…

Though Standard might lack these effects, Modern or other formats where giving it to your opponent might not matter (since you plan on winning that turn) are a different story. I would only target cheap foils of this card for now, and only as pure speculation. The power hasn’t been proven yet, however if it breaks out then it’s price could gain quite substantially.

 

Rageform
While not nearly as efficient as its white and blue counterparts, double strike is a pretty nice bonus that becomes better if you can Manifest a good creature. My hopes might be higher than how actually good it is though. I’ll be keeping an eye on this one moving forward.

 

Shockmaw Dragon
Like the other Dragons, the ability is not that great but foils should do well long term.

 

Wild Slash
In addition to a Lightning Bolt variant, this set also gave us a Shock variant that makes the damage unpreventable if you have Ferocious. I can see this being played in Standard, and if not this Standard then definitely post Theros block. Keep some copies stored away for anticipated Standard play and possibly in Modern or beyond.

Due to its ubiquity in being played in almost any red deck and the fact that it is uncommon, I think that Wild Slash could be one of the most financially relevant cards in Fate Reforged.

 

Green

 

Destructor Dragon
OK, this dragon is definitely the most powerful (casually) of the uncommon cycle. Not only do you get a 4/4 flyer in green for six mana, you also get to take out the strongest noncreature permanent when it dies. This dragon should be targeted above all of its other uncommon brethren because it seems like it will be amazing in Commander.

Foils again will be the best targets.

 

Map the Wastes
I think this could actually have Standard potential. I like being able to turn my Elvish Mystic into a 2/2 while also being able to continue ramping. I might be stretching the playability of the card but it can’t hurt to set some aside in anticipation of potential play.

 

Sudden Reclamation
I like the fact that this card is an instant and will return a creature and a land from your graveyard to hand. Though not as mana efficient as Satyr Wayfinder, it can get you big bombs or help fix your mana by getting back previously self-milled lands. I also think that it will almost always get back both the creature and the land. Couldn’t hurt to pick up some copies on the cheap.

 

Winds of Qal Sisma
This card is a real blowout if you can setup a scenario where you come out on top. I think R/G midrange decks might utilize it as a neat combat trick to help clear the way. This is not something that will spike overnight or anything, though it could prove useful in Standard at least in sideboards.

 

Multicolored

The only multicolored uncommons and commons I could see maybe getting Standard play are Harsh Sustenance and War Flare, but I still don’t think they are powerful enough to compete. The multicolored uncommons and commons don’t look that great financially to me.

 

Artifact

The only uncommon/common artifact that I like from the set is Hero’s Blade. This is a nifty artifact for Commander generals, so  I would target both foils and nonfoils on the cheap for potential future demand. No other uncommon and common artifacts look appealing to me from the set.

 

Lands

The only uncommon/common lands in Fater Reforged are the reprinted Khans Refuges, that is the dual lands that come into play tapped and gain you one life. No lands are financially relevant in Fate Reforged

 

Summary

Here’s the top five uncommons and commons (by cycle, if applicable) in list format so that you know which uncommons and commons I think will hold the most financial value in Fate Reforged moving forward.

HONORABLE MENTION: Reality Shift

1. Wild Slash
2. Mardu Woe-Reaper
3. Cloudform
4. Humble Defector
5. Dark Deal

Here is my top five FOIL uncommons and commons (by cycle, if applicable)

1. Dragons (especially the Green one)
2. Cloudform and Lightform
3. Humble Defector
4. Dark Deal
5. Reality Shift

Again, let me reiterate that I am not recommending that players buy thousands of these uncommons/commons en masse trying to make a profit by expecting them to spike. Uncommons and commons are notoriously slow to increase in price, if at all. It takes something like Delver of Secrets level of play to make that happen – and even then it was a few years before it really started going up in value.

I also hope this article will enable players to identify the more powerful uncommons and commons in the set so that they can pick them up for decks if they want to play them, and that it helps players building cubes to identify which foil uncommons and commons are best to pick up.

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