Bloomburrow is officially out in two weeks, and I want to make sure you know your odds before you start going crazy with preorder pricing. We have more than a few card variants to look for, and thankfully, we’ve got all the information we need to calculate drop rates.
So let’s get into some of the specifics for the set, and see what the numbers tell us.
First of all, The List is dead! (for now) and Special Guests are the only leftovers of a targeted reprint policy. We’ve got some others in the subsets too, but that happens in every release. Special Guest nonfoils are in Play Boosters, and foils in Collector Boosters. We’re told that for a nonfoil, you’re at a 1.5% chance to get one in any Play Booster. That’s 67 packs for any nonfoil SPG, and with ten cards, that means 667 packs to get a specific one (or 18.5 boxes). I’ll compare that to the foils in a moment.
There are three groupings of cards in Bloomburrow, outside of the expected Showcase and Extended Art cards we see in every set. First is the Courageous Critters (20 cards), the Field Notes (8 cards), and then a set of 20 Anime Art cards done by Mitsuhiro Arita. Of note, these aren’t bonus sheets but they are subsets, though they lack their own set code, like BIG and OTP were for Outlaws of Thunder Junction.
Play Boosters can’t open any of the big money foil variants, so aside from knowing that the SPG nonfoils are tough to pull, we’ll move on. If you really want to know about a card from Play Boosters, drop me a message on Twitter or in the Discord.
The Collector Boosters have three slots at the end that are noteworthy. First, we have two slots in a row of nonfoil cards we’ll care about. Please note that the listed percentages add up to 200%, because there’s two slots.
With these percentages, it can be a little misleading, so let’s make a table.
| Set/Treatment (all nonfoils) | Percent chance for any card of that category | Percent chance for a specific card of that category | # of CBs to open one specific card from that category |
| Borderless Mythic Rare (5) | 6.58% | 1.32% | 75.99 |
| Borderless Field Notes Rare (1) | 2.63% | 2.63% | 38.02 |
| Borderless Field Notes Mythic (6) | 7.89% | 1.32% | 76.05 |
| Borderless Field Notes Mythic (1) | 0.6% | 0.60% | 166.67 |
| Showcase Rare (35) | 92.1% | 2.63% | 38.00 |
| Showcase Mythic Rare (7) | 9.21% | 1.32% | 76.00 |
| Borderless Planeswalker Mythic Rare (1) | 1.32% | 1.32% | 75.76 |
| EA Rare (13) | 34.2% | 2.63% | 38.01 |
| Courageous Critters Rare (12) | 31.5% | 2.63% | 38.10 |
| Courageous Critters Mythic Rare (8) | 10.53% | 1.32% | 75.97 |
| Borderless Three Tree City Rares (4) | 2.63% | 0.66% | 152.09 |
| Mitsuhiro Arita Lumra, Bellow of the Woods (1) | 0.6% | 0.60% | 166.67 |
Please note, Wizards isn’t entirely clear about which Field Notes mythic is a standalone, or why it happened that way. I’ve reached out to those who might be able to clarify, and we’ll see if I get any answers.
And yes, you’re seeing that correctly: 9 out of 10 Collector Booster packs will have a Showcase rare in one of these two slots. While that seems like a lot, even those will require more than three boxes to get a specific Showcase nonfoil rare.
Now, the same table for the foil options of the last slot in the Collector Booster:
| Set/Treatment (all traditional foil unless noted) | Percent chance for any card of that category | Percent chance for a specific card of that category | # of CBs to open one specific card from that category |
| Borderless Mythic Rare (5) | 3.07% | 0.61% | 162.87 |
| Borderless Field Notes Rare (1) | 1.23% | 1.23% | 81.30 |
| Borderless Field Notes Mythic (6) | 3.68% | 0.61% | 163.04 |
| Borderless Field Notes Mythic (1) | 0.31% | 0.31% | 322.58 |
| Showcase Rare (35) | 42.95% | 1.23% | 81.49 |
| Showcase Mythic Rare (7) | 4.30% | 0.61% | 162.79 |
| Borderless Planeswalker Mythic Rare (1) | 0.61% | 0.61% | 163.93 |
| EA Rare (13) | 15.95% | 1.23% | 81.50 |
| Courageous Critters Rare (12) | 14.73% | 1.23% | 81.47 |
| Courageous Critters Mythic Rare (8) | 4.91% | 0.61% | 162.93 |
| Borderless Three Tree City Rares (4) | 1.23% | 0.31% | 325.20 |
| Mitsuhiro Arita Lumra, Bellow of the Woods (1) | 0.31% | 0.31% | 322.58 |
| Borderless Special Guests (10) | 3.07% | 0.31% | 325.73 |
| Raised Foil Anime (21) | 3.66% | 0.17% | 573.77 |
So two things jump out at me right away, given the data.
First of all, 573 packs to get a specific Raised Foil Anime version is pretty out there. If a box of 12 packs is $200, then you’re looking at about $9,500 of product to get one copy! In terms of past sets, a Raised Foil Chatterfang is about as difficult to pull as a Foil Vault Frame Vaultborn Tyrant. The Raised Foils are also going to have a very wide gap from the cheapest to the most expensive, so I’m expecting to see some swingy reports of the value opened.
Second, the foil Special Guests are 325 Collector Boosters to get a specific card, while the nonfoils are 667 Play Boosters. There’s clearly a disparity in terms of the prices involved, and how much would be spent to get a single copy, but this gap is more pronounced than ever and I’m going to be keeping a special eye on these nonfoils, as they are difficult to get.
I hope these numbers help you make decisions about what to buy and when. If you’d like to talk about my methods or conclusion, please feel free to reach out on Twitter or in the ProTrader Discord.
Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.