It might seem odd, but there’s yet another Secret Lair going on sale next Tuesday, August 27.
We have ended the Brain Dead and the Festival in a Box has another 60 days to go, but yes, it’s time for the 50th Anniversary of Dungeons and Dragons! We’ve got five drops that are coming out and we need to look at if these are worth buying.
For each drop, I’m going to list the cards, their EDH inclusion rate, and the current most special version of the card and its price.
For mega-staples, the number of premium versions isn’t a huge deal, but for most of these cards, there is no other special version aside from the pack foil.
Fell the Mighty (50k, Surge foil 50¢)
Faithless Looting (364k, Mystical Archive foil $14)
Goldspan Dragon (130k, FEA $40)
Reality Shift (200k, Borderless foil $1)
Monster Manual (51k, Prerelease foil $8)
Ponder (285k, SL Showdown foil $120)
Acererak the Archlich (17k, 900 as Commander, $48 Ampersand foil)
The big draw here is the Goldspan Dragon, who sees play in any number of Treasure decks. This is the drop that appears to be the best value on its own, between the Dragon and several cards lacking special versions but have good inclusion numbers. None of these are bad cards, and even if you’re not currently running them, they are worth considering.
Reality Shift needs special attention, because it feels like this version should be more than $1 but there is an absolute boatload of the borderless foil uncommon out there. I think this version will end up as the most expensive, but it’ll be hard for this to be too much more pricey than the borderless version.
Astarion, the Decadent (20k, incl. 3k as Commander, Prerelease foil $17)
Exquisite Blood (109k, SL Dracula foil $34)
Sanguine Bond (129k, TSR Retro foil $17)
Anguished Unmaking (244k, Textured foil $27)
Mortify (122k, Player Rewards $4)
This is solid value, considering that there’s a whole lot of Mortify and Unmaking out there. Having the two enchantments that combo off together (plus you gaining life/opponent losing life) with matching art is good, and this drop should also hold value well, even if you don’t like the character as a being or as a card. So many decks play the pair of five-drop enchantments, and so I think this will be a solid drop.
Karlach, Fury of Avernus (65k, prerelease foil $37)
City on Fire (72k, FEA $7)
Stranglehold (12k, Judge foil $8)
Thrill of Possibility (228k, Mystical Archive 50¢)
Dolmen Gate (38k, Lorwyn pack foil $120)
City on Fire feels like it should have gotten there, but Karlach being in so many decks is a testament to the awesome ability to gain a second combat, with first strike added, for no cost beyond her own. It’s very hard to argue with the ability, though it’s difficult to copy/clone.
If you’re buying this drop, it’s either in the bundle or you believe in this Karlach long-term. The other cards just aren’t played enough to be worthwhile. (Dolmen Gate’s price is an effect of too little supply. This version will be lucky to be $10.)
Karazikar, the Eye Tyrant (25k, 1k as Commander, $12 EA nonfoil)
Oubliette (22k, Arabian Nights nonfoil $31)
Fling (44k, Blood Bowl SL $4)
Fire Covenant (36k, SL foil $31)
Snuff Out (51k, Mercadian Masques foil $180)
Defile (77k, MH1 Timeshifted Foil $5)
Snuff Out is in a lot more decks than you’d think, but it hasn’t been made really popular online. This is a very mid-tier drop, and I will be happy to go after singles here. There are several $7 versions of Snuff Out, and the price should be attractively low here when the drops start arriving.
Xanathar, Guild Kingpin (15k, 1500 as Commander, $24 Ampersand foil)
Bribery (24k, $180 Mercadian Masques foil)
Stifle (14k, $60 Invocation foil)
Delay (65k, $14 Future Sight foil)
Blood Money (41k, $5 Prerelease foil)
Drown in the Loch (71k, $23 Special Guests foil)
Xanathar is a popular choice for the decks that want to do things with other peoples’ decks. Tasha, the Witch Queen and Gonti, Canny Acquisitor are excellent examples of these decks, and Xanathar fits right into such strategies. The sneaky card to watch out for here is Drown in the Loch, as it’s still a played card in Modern and occasionally in Pioneer. Blood Money isn’t a bad choice if you want a black Wrath, and Bribery will always have a home.
I think this drop will hold value nicely, as it’s hard for me to see special versions of these cards not holding a total of $40 in value, and I plan on getting some extra copies of Drown in the Loch, hopefully as low as $5-$10 when supply reaches its maximum.
We don’t yet know the bonus cards, or the level of bundle discount, or if there will be any bonuses for higher spending. The ‘spend X, get X’ promotions haven’t been needed to help some Lairs sell out fast, so we might not get these anymore.
I am doubtful that this set of drops has a fast sellout, but the overlap between Magic and D&D cannot be discounted. My guess is that it never sells out completely, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the D&D art one sells out first, just due to the staples present within. If the bundles turn out to be the right level of discount, none of these are truly bad, but more than one will take a long while to be profitable.
Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.