We’ve got a big drop happening a week from Monday, on the 13th, and there’s a lot to unpack. Ten drops, a range of prices, and an interesting choice of promos to reward us for every $200 spent.
This is on top of the seven-drop bonanza coming to us two weeks later, and if you are trying to decide which drops here and new to get, don’t worry, I’ve got you covered. So let’s review the cards, the usage patterns, and decide what to buy.
For each card, I’ve listed the EDHREC inclusion rate (a reminder, EDHREC is not perfect data, but it’s all we’ve got) and the relevant special versions of the cards. I’m focusing on borderless things, because new art in the same frame doesn’t always move the needle, but a lot of these are getting their second Secret Lair treatment.
Unless otherwise noted, these drops are all $30 for the nonfoil and $40 for the rainbow foil.
Artist Series: Kieran Yanner
Armageddon: (29k decks, Invocation $70)
Northern Paladin (837 decks!, no special version)
Lord of the Pit (5100 decks, no special version)
Demonic Tutor (708k decks, Game Changer, CMM borderless foil $120, STX JPN Alt Foil $300, Box Topper $90)
Frankly, this is one of the best values I’ve ever seen in a Secret Lair. The cheapest nonfoils are $45+, and you can get one here for $30. The art is stunning, worthy of being hung on the wall, and let me send a big thank you to everyone at WotC who decided to give artists a borderless frame and more to work with in the Artist Series lairs. The other three cards are gorgeous, but clearly the focus here is the Tutor. Buying this is a given and should be plenty profitable. I am also quite likely to get in on a few extra copies in Dump Week.
Secret Lair x Jaws: Terror of Amity Island
Jaws, Relentless Predator (n/a)
Descent into Avernus (115k, FEA $10)
Reckless Endeavor (32k decks, no special version)
Sneak Attack (78k decks, 2XM Borderless foil $11, WOE Confetti foil $60)
Abrade (394k decks, INR Borderless Foil $2, FDN Borderless Foil $1.50, SLD Borderless foil $19)
Blood Token
This drop has the bonus pricing of $40 nonfoil/$50 rainbow foil, and that makes it a big iffy for me. I like the cards, I think Jaws is a neat commander to build around, especially because any player can trigger the ability, but none of these stand out as mega-value cards. I’d rather pick up the singles when people are dumping these early on.
Secret Lair x The Office: Dwight’s Destiny
Heliod, Sun-Crowned (102k decks plus 4200 as Commander, Constellation Foil $24, SLD Borderless Foil $21)
Steelshaper’s Gift (92k decks, CMM Borderless foil $10, SLD foil $12)
Swords to Plowshares (2 million decks, a million special arts)
Baral, Chief of Compliance (86k decks, plus 4100 as Commander, serialized $300, SLD foil $6, SLD foil $14)
Garruk Relentless (4500 decks, no special arts)
Reaper King (4000 decks plus 6500 as Commander, no special arts)
The cards here add up decently, but this is an odd choice, given that The Office ended twelve years ago and its peak was several years earlier. Should be an okay drop, but I don’t think the meme-ness of this will increase value like Princess Bride or Monty Python have done. Worth noting that if they preview some more Scarecrows in Lorwyn Eclipsed, I’ll likely buy a lot of very cheap Reaper Kings.
Dreaming Darkly
Glen Elendra Archmage (75k decks, SLD foil $65)
Guardian Project (263k decks, RVR Borderless foil $54)
Roon of the Hidden Realm (2400 as card, plus 3100 as Commander, no special arts)
Soulherder (70k decks, no special arts)
Real hard to argue with a premium version of Guardian Project, plus the Archmage and the Herder. Roon is pretty weak as blinkers go, needing an extra turn, more mana, etc, but the Project is carrying the load here and should appreciate nicely.
Secret Lair x Iron Maiden: Album Art
Lethal Scheme (65k decks, PIP FEA $4)
Grave Titan (81k decks, PIP foil $11, SLD foil $15)
Animate Dead (322k, no special frames)
Temporal Trespass (39k decks, ACR FEA $4)
Unearth (112k, 2X2 Borderless Foil $1.50)
Lignify (54k, no special arts)
Once again, I must climb upon my soapbox and cry out for all the Zombie enthusiasts: Why isn’t Grave Titan a Zombie Giant?? There’s a decent amount of value here, and I appreciate that this is at the $30/$40 price point. This looks to be a slow gainer, although the Animate Dead is badass and popular.
Secret Lair x Iron Maiden: Eddie Unchained
Bruvac the Grandiloquent (45k decks, plus 6300 as Commander, RVR Borderless foil $47)
Windfall (421k decks, SLD foil $13)
Captain N’gathrod (12k decks, plus 14k as Commander, CLB FEA $70)
Nekusar, the Mindrazer (7600 decks, plus 14k as Commander, SLD $50)
Iron Maiden (9000 decks, no special version) – $9
Mindcrank (110k decks, no special version) – $11
I had no idea that the Captain was so popular, but this is a cool theme to build around. We’re getting sweet versions of cards that are already expensive, and that makes this a very good lair to buy. Mindcrank might end up as the best value here, and it’s also possible that the Iron Maiden’s special art carries it a lot further than we might expect.
Trick or Treat
Vito, Thorn of the Dusk Rose (185k decks, FEA $22)
Satoru Umezawa (20k as card, plus 12k as Commander, Borderless foil $3)
Voja, Jaws of the Conclave (3,000 decks, plus 18,000 as Commander, no special version)
Wilhelt, the Rotcleaver (30k decks, plus 20k as Commander, SLD Retro $95)
Liberator, Urza’s Battlethopter (89k, plus 2k as Commander, FEA $5)
Wilhelt and Vito are known and very good, plus we get a premium Voja, who wasn’t in the main set. Satoru already has a pretty amazing borderless to use, and Liberator is useful, but those first three legends should start at good prices and start trending upwards.
Secret Lair x Furby: Doo-ay Noo-lah
Distant Melody (153k, SLD $10)
Explore (300k, LTC foil $3)
Inspiring Call (263k decks, surge foil PIP $18)
Chromatic Lantern (611k, FIC foil $25, RVR Borderless $19)
Sol Ring (all of them, too many)
Secret Lair x Furby: The Gathering
Sphere of Safety (143k, SLD foil $18)
Miscast (55k decks, no special versions)
Phyrexian Arena (553k decks, FDN Mana Foil $38, ONE FEA $3)
Tormenting Voice (75k decks, no special arts)
Tamiyo’s Safekeeping (193k, no special arts)
Secret Lair x Furby: The OddBodies
Hullbreaker Horror (263k, PIP Surge $44, DBL foil $60, INR Borderless $9)
Maddening Cacophony (70k decks, FEA $8)
Serum Visions (131k, SLD foils $2.50 each)
Umbris, Fear Manifest (5k as card, 7k as Commander, no special art)
Spellskite (115k, no special frame)
For these three lairs, we’re looking at $30/$40 like usual but there’s also some $60 confetti foils, which are probably the same treatment that the Enchanted Tales subset had back in Wilds of Eldraine. It’s a fun treatment, especially on cards like these, but there are still lots of confetti foils that are inexpensive. That subset also had anime art, which Magic players tend to love. I’m not sold on confetti alone being a reason to buy in.
The Sol Ring is the first one that jumps out at me, as there’s no shortage of this card at $30+, which is where I’d expect the super-cute, confetti-foiled version to land. We don’t tend to see the Rings grow in price over time, but the big unknown is the supply level. How many confetti foil versions did they make for this, is it half the number of rainbow foils? Or are they near to the same number, as what seemed to happen with the raised foils they sold for $99 not too long ago?
The rest of these cards, the art/cuteness/anti-cuteness is going to have to do a lot of heavy lifting if the price is to grow. The demand level isn’t there to make these skyrocket. One card that I’ll be eager to get cheap copies of is the Safekeeping, a card which is $3 as a nonfoil uncommon but one of the most popular ways to keep your stuff safe. That 193,000 number isn’t even inflated by being in a precon or some such; it’s just pure efficiency.
Finally, there’s a Cryptic Command as a promo, you get one for every $200 you spend. I don’t have high expectations for this card, considering what the other promos have done and the competition from other special versions, including a gorgeous textless MPR from way back in the day.
Given that Secret Lairs are now highly targeted by the bot networks and others trying to make the same sort of returns which Final Fantasy gave us, I expect this lair to sell out quickly, as the Spider-Man drops did. I’m not convinced of the long-term value, though, given that these are mostly mediocre cards. The Sonic Lairs are excellent examples, as aside from the drop with the Sol Ring, none of those have shot up in value. There’s a lot of buyers who are able to get at MSRP and want to resell immediately, as they can’t afford to hold products in stock. That’s how you get Lairs reselling at $35+$15 shipping, a model which gives very low profit but the turnover is constant.
For this drop, I’m targeting two sealed drops: the Artist Series: Kieran Yanner and Iron Maiden: Eddie Unchained. Those are clearly the best value on the board, and given the velocity of releases, if you wanted to skip this drop and wait for Dump Week, it’s a defensible position. There’s only a couple of drops here screaming with value, and the rest is dependent on nostalgia, art, and those who need to collect everything.
I can’t overlook the world in which confetti sells out fast, then FOMO kicks in, and everything else sells out relatively quickly too. The prices on the cards will then zoom way out of the realm of how good the cards are, which may end up happening for the Spider-Man drop. Those prices are high, but within expectations for the time right before Dump Week.
For this superdrop, I’m planning on looking for these cards to hit lows, in foil and nonfoil: Guardian Project, Tamiyo’s Safekeeping, Wilhelt, and of course the Tutor and most of Eddie Unchained. Not sure how low they’ll go, but those are the ones I’ll want.
If you want to discuss the things I’m buying and not buying, please feel free to stop by the ProTrader Discord and let’s discuss!
Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.