Secret Lairs have been one of the most profitable parts of Magic finance this year. The combination of certain reprints and unique cards, plus the system for giving them out, has been ripe for big markups and fast gains.
However, not everything Secret Lair has been equally profitable, and there are also examples where the psychology (or foolishness) really come into play. For more than a few Lairs, it’s not about the cards, but the item itself, the collectability. So let’s get into some examples, and see where we can gain some insights for future drops.
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Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.
We’re heading into the time that’s usually a lull, but don’t worry, there’s lots of speculating and likely some news dumps coming up.
On January 23, we get Lorwyn Rising, and while six weeks seems like a lot of time, holidays make that time go by incredibly quickly. We know a little bit about the set, including the Commander decks, and that’s enough data to start thinking about cards worth a spec.
We’re getting two Commander decks, and while some of that will be new cards, some will be reprints. I expect that some of the cards on this list will end up in the decks, or the reprint/bonus sheet of the main set, and there’s nothing I can do about that. Waiting is a guarantee that you won’t get burned, but it also means you might miss out. Best advice I can offer is to be prepared, and as soon as we know information, pounce!
First of all, let’s go over the Commander deck called Blight Curse, which apparently is a -1/-1 counters deck in Jund colors. This is a theme that’s been visited before, but never really in Commander, so there’s some juicy, juicy targets. Like I said though, we’re running a risk with potential reprints. When the decklist is released, it’ll be time to pounce. I also expect this to have a couple of pricey cards (Necroskitter, Yawgmoth, etc.) to boost its total value.
Black Sun’s Zenith (Avatar or full-art) – There’s a lot of versions that are already cheap, so my expectation is that this will be in the deck. If it isn’t, I’m partial to the older full-art version, but cheap borderless foils from the TLE set could have a nice jump. I’m not expecting much if it’s reprinted though. Note that this works the way you want it to with Hapatra, Nest of Scarabs, and Flourishing Defenses.
Blowfly Infestation – Basically this adds up counters until everything is dead, making it brutally efficient at making sure stuff with counters are always in play. Strong candidate for the deck.
Flourishing Defenses and Nest of Scarabs – Close to the same card, wonderfully efficient, very likely to be reprinted in the deck. Since the only foils are the pack foils, I’m not sure if those foils will jump much, but since supply is already low, some gain is almost guaranteed.
Hapatra, Vizier of Poisons – When Tarkir: Dragonstorm was announced to have a Temur Dragons Commander deck, we all thought Mirrym would be in there. Turns out, they don’t want to add old commanders to a precon that could be better than the new ones. Hapatra might fall into this category, but at only two colors, might be safe to add.
Crumbling Ashes – One creature a turn doesn’t seem super powerful, but the synergy is strong and this should see some new interest.
Dusk Urchins – It’s a cute combo with Black Sun’s Zenith, or some other mega-counter-adding sort of thing, and nearly every card that says ‘-1/-1 counter’ on it will see some renewed interest.
Fevered Convulsions – Yes, it’s six mana for the first counter and ten for the second, but if your deck is focused doing one thing, then this might be an attractive option.
Necroskitter – One of the main things I expect to be in the Commander deck, this is powerful and specific to the theme. It’s not cheap, which is something they usually keep in mind when putting the decklist together. The price is all due to printings in 2008 and 2015, and a pretty measly inclusion rate in Commander decks. They love reprints that look expensive but are going to stay cheap when reprinted.
Spitting Dilophosaurus – One of the best things we know they probably won’t add to the deck, since it belongs to a different IP. They’ve done a smidgeon of reprints from specific IPs, but this should be a safe bet. The Jurassic Park logo version is already crazy expensive, but I would not be shocked to see the foils double or more.
The Scorpion God – A cheap price means it’s likely to be in the deck, and there’s some special versions to chase down. We might see this have a big jump on the Invocation version.
Yawgmoth, Thran Physician – I especially like the Amano nonfoils here, though the base version is pricey enough to not be included in the Commander deck and if that’s the case, I expect all versions to rise by a couple bucks.
Massacre Girl, Known Killer – The special folder versions are under $10, and when added to a deck full of the right counters, it’s quite a wonderful addition.
Fallen Ferromancer and Hateflayer – If the deck needs ways to add counters to creatures, these are two good ways to do that. Pretty likely these are in the main deck, but if they aren’t, watch out.
Misfortune – It’s on the Reserved List! And while it’s the perfect colors, it’s a card that’s pretty terrible. Your opponents will almost certainly let you have the 4 life and bonus counters, which takes away the whole point. But as I’ve said, anything that mentions the minus counters and is in Jund will get some attention. I won’t be shocked if this has a spike, but it’s a thoroughly irrational one.
The other deck is five-color Elementals, called Dance of the Elements, and there’s a lot of potential in this as well. Given that the main set has a lot of Elementals too, most of the sweet cards should get a basic reprint, like Smokebraider. However, there’s a few that I’d like to keep an eye on.
Creeping Trailblazer – There’s so many Elementals to choose from, they can’t reprint them all. I think this is one of the contenders to get overlooked, and so we might see the six-year-old foils see a pretty jump.
Chandra’s Embercat – Chandra and Elementals have a long history, and a lot of her cards make Elementals or care about the creature type in some way. This particular kitty is another card likely to be overlooked, but would a two-mana dork be good enough for the deck? I’m doubtful.
Flamekin Harbinger & Risen Reef – Almost certain to be in the Commander deck, there’s a Secret Lair from 2023 called The Stars Gaze Back that has special versions of these two, plus Omnath, Locus of Rage and Voice of Resurgence. The art is unique, and should be a sought-after upgrade for all the cards. Full disclosure: I’ve bought some of the sealed Lairs and some of the special foils.
Incandescent Soulstoke – There’s a chance this doesn’t get the reprint, because the two abilities together are incredibly good, but if it’s in there it’ll stay cheap and if it’s not it’ll go over $5 in foil. This one I’m keeping a close eye on when preview season is rolling.
Kaheera, the Orphanguard – Halo Foils are about $15, and that’s clearly the target here. A deck would happily add this to the 99, or play it as the actual Companion. I don’t think this would be in the precon deck, as they sort of view Companion as a mistake in Constructed, but who knows?
2-color and 3-color Omnath – Four- and Five- color versions of Omnath don’t care about Elementals in the same way, so the more basic versions are worth looking at. Locus of Rage has a SLD printing to watch, as I mentioned above, but Locus of the Roil might be a little too pricey at its base to be put into the Commander deck. I’m pretty sure this will be in, though, and I don’t think pack foils would move too much as a result.
Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.
Hello and welcome to the next installment of Mana Math! We’re dealing with Avatar: The Last Airbender, which is a full-size set, not a mini like Spider-Man was, so there’s a lot more to do in the draft format. We’re also focusing on the Collector Boosters, since the Play Boosters are absolute garbage if you want to pull anything that isn’t a regular-frame rare or mythic.
Let’s do some math!
Why am I skipping Play Boosters? Mainly because your odds are much worse than terrible. The wildcard slot in a play booster is 97.6% to give you a main-set nonfoil common, uncommon, rare, or mythic, making everything in a special frame less than 1%. In the actual rare/mythic slot, you’re 92.6% to get a nonfoil rare/mythic from the main set, leaving every variant crammed into that leftover 7.4%. And then the foil slot is more than half commons, with 98.5% of pulls being C/U/R/M from the main set, leaving a mere 1.5% of foils to be anything Booster Fun. That means in 200 packs, you’ll get three Booster Fun foils! Ugh. You might open one, and I hope you understand what incredible odds you beat to do so.
For each of these charts, I’m using Wizards’ MSRP of $38 for a single Collector Booster pack. I’m aware that the prices on boxes are varied, depending on where you get them, so if you have a different number, feel free to use that in your own calculations. Right now the lowest price on Avatar Collector Display Boxes is about $550 on TCG, but those are on presale mode till 11/21.
We’re going to go through the last three slots for a Collector Booster. In order, that’s nonfoil Booster Fun, the Source Material cards, and then the foils for Booster Fun.
To start with, the nonfoils:
The rarest drops here are the battle poses and the mythic elemental frames, and compared to other nonfoils in the past, they will be surprisingly difficult to open. If any of them turn out to be strong in Commander or Constructed, the nonfoils could end up being pricier than expected. As a point of comparison, the hardest nonfoil to pull in Edge of Eternities was the nonfoil poster mythics, at about 1 in 375 and that’s a bit easier than the 460 or the 454 that represent the least common pulls for the nonfoils for TLA.
Next up, let’s look at the Source Material, 61 reprints using stills from the actual show:
I both love and hate that they use actual frames from the cartoon, but I adore that the artist is given as the season and episode.
All the cards are listed as mythic rarity, but all of them are mythic, so the actual rarity doesn’t matter. Compared to Spider-Man, this will be a little more difficult, since the comic book cover SPM cards dropped every 53/160 packs. There are some great hits in this list too, I can’t wait to get some more nonfoil The Great Henge for cheap.
This list also has Force of Negation and Teferi’s Protection as big hits, but there’s a whole lot of good hits too, but the supply on nonfoils should be pretty significant and you’ll have a chance to buy some very good deals. Contributing to this is the art, which can be polarizing, especially on something like Cruel Tutor or Bloodchief Ascension, focused on drawn animation that doesn’t feel as high-resolution as the things we’re used to.
Finally, the foils:
Regrettably, I had to a bit of estimation here: adding up all the known percentages gives us 99% exactly, with the mythic rare EA, the Neon Ink, and the Raised Foil Aang listed at less than 1% each.
So I used 0.45% for the EA, as that’s very close to the other mythics in this set. That leaves 0.55%, and I split that evenly among the Neon Ink and the Raised Foil, but I suspect that’s wrong, going by the prices The Soul Stone is fetching in premium printings. I suspect that it’ll be a split where the Raised Foil is in the 2000-3000 pack range, but in the absence of data, all I can do is speculate. If we get better data, I’ll update this post.
Overall, we’re looking at pretty reasonable drop rates for everything but those Neon Ink and the Raised Foil. I can’t predict if this raised foil will have the same rarity as the raised foil textless Soul Stone, but all things are possible when there’s five cards and just 1% of slots left. I’d also be very surprised if it got similar prices, but if Avatar unlocks new collectors the same way Final Fantasy did, the sky is the limit here.
It also needs to be said that about 85% of Collector Booster packs will have a rare in this slot, so the average CB box will only have about two mythics. That’s almost the same as Spider-Man’s rate in Collector Boosters, but Edge of Eternities was about 70% rare in this slot. We’ll have to see if this greatly impacts the prices as well.
I hope this information helps you make good decisions about cracking packs, and that you feel sufficiently lucky when you open something amazing! As always, if you’d like to discuss methods or numbers, please feel free to hit me up on social media, or come to the ProTrader Discord!
Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.
We just got a Superdrop this week and we’re a week and a half away from the next one, seven Secret Lairs focused on Sony Playstation universes. I like adding in new IP, even if I haven’t played these games, and Secret Lair is the perfect place to do this.
So today, I’ll go over the drops, including the unique cards, and evaluate what I want to buy and what I want to be patient on.
Sony’s had a lot of great exclusives over the years, and here’s a handy chart:
My favorite bit here is Twisted Metal, even though that hasn’t had a game released in 13 years.
We do have a little bit of precedence here, in the Tomb Raider drop from 2023. That lair has climbed to $200 sealed, but that’s the old era of Secret Lairs. This stopped in January 2024 when they switched to a limited-print model. We’ve had plenty of mechanically unique cards in SLs since, including things like Marvel and Deadpool and Sonic, so while I wish that this wasn’t the distribution for such cards, it is what it is.
For each of the drops, I’ll go over the EDHREC numbers and the other special versions, as well as a discussion of how good a Commander it/they would be. This is based purely off of my experience in Commander, I’m just someone who loves playing the format, not a deckbuilding expert.
Secret Lair x The Last of Us Part I
Cabal Ritual (177k decks, MYB2 foil $60) – There are a lot of Commander decks that use this very aggressively to ramp on mana, especially as part of a big combo turn. I wouldn’t expect this foil to be more than $15-$20, but that’s solid value.
Haunted One (27k decks, $40 FEA) – This ought to drop pretty far, since its previous printing was pretty small and the card is fantastic in kindred decks like Zombies.
Secret Lair x The Last of Us Part II
Dictate of Erebos (113k decks, SL foil $31) – The previous SL foil is a fun bit of graphic design, looking very different yet still a Magic card. The original art, zoomed in on a face, is also awesome, and while this is a nice borderless foil, it’ll be available pretty cheap for a while.
Mycoloth (53k decks, SL foil $24) – The other Mycoloth has a lettering/look that some don’t resonate with, but the bigger problem is that this card is all building towards playing a huge creature and hoping it survives a turn. Lots of potential, but hard to utilize.
The four Partner-Survivor commanders synergize nicely into Jund colors, and you can pick any two of them to have fun with. Joel is going to draw you a lot of cards, and Ellie the vengeful has an ability that plays into a whole lot of deckbuilding. It’s easy to imagine a deck built around her that can sacrifice effectively.
Secret Lair x God of War: Greek
World at War (27k decks, pack foil $20)
Rite of Flame (129k decks!, pack foil $70)
Sulfuric Vortex (42k decks, pack foil $40)
Pyrohemia (39k decks, pack foil $55)
I don’t think I’ve seen another SL where there were no special versions previously, but here we are. Rite of Flame surprised me, as I didn’t know there were so many decks hungry for a spell that adds just one bonus mana, but yeah, there’s a lot of decks that want it. Kratos is the reddest red card ever, and if you combine it with something like Peacekeeper (so creatures can’t attack) then you’ve got something truly special.
Secret Lair x God of War: Norse
Teferi’s Ageless Insight (163k decks, SLD foil $13) – Excellent card, and two-sided to boot. This should be the best version from the getgo.
Iroas, God of Victory (70k decks, SLD foil $40) – I’m partial to the constellation Gods, but this is a great presentation for a card that goes right into every attack-based Commander.
As for the father and son, there’s only 13 cards (so far, I’m expecting at least two more in Avatar) that reference experience counters and the only five-color one is Azlask, the other five-color Eldrazi. It’s immediately tempting to me to build that deck, especially as resolving Atreus’s ability will go a long long way. These will be good, but not great.
Secret Lair x Uncharted
Midnight Clock (172k decks, FEA $14)
Whip of Erebos (131k decks, Promo Pack $20)
Chain Reaction (143k decks, pack foil $13)
Passionate Archaeologist (68k decks, FEA $200)
By far my favorite drop on the board, these are three staples and you’re getting upgrades for all the art. Ellie’s Dictate is just a picture of her, but these Clocks and Whips look like important relics and I will be picking up stacks at Dump Week. Those two, plus the Chain, should be very good value indeed over time. Archaeologist was a mythic from a barely-opened set and while these versions won’t be super expensive, they won’t be cheap either.
Nathan is an excellent commander, pushing the ‘stop hitting yourself’ theme out of Sultai and into Grixis. You do have to pay for the spells, but you also get to cast those spells regardless of timing. Can’t get lands into play, though.
Meteor Golem (136k decks, SLD foils $3.50 and $4.50)
Given that this drop is starting at $50 for foils, don’t count on the Blightsteel being the same price. That’s a Megatron art, which is much cooler. This is instantly the best Farseek, and that’s good, but these other two are pretty mediocre.
Aloy is interesting, as we don’t have a lot of artifact creature themes pointed at Simic. The big problem is, she’s not very powerful: she’s five mana to get one discover trigger. That’s just not going to do it in most Commander games.
Secret Lair x Ghost of Tsushima
Path to Exile (1.54 million decks, special versions range from $4 to $17)
Borne Upon A Wind (123k decks, scrolls foil $25)
Ghostly Flicker (165k decks, pack foil $9)
Eiganjo Castle (29k decks, pack foil $95)
Sweet Path, but there’s already a ton of PtE out there. The other cards are pretty good, and Eijango is a land that really isn’t played enough in Commander. I like getting good versions of staples plus a good Commander in a drop like this. Jin Sakai is a neat thing to do, to build around creatures that need to hit the opponent to do anything. The canary in the coal mine here is Summon: Primal Odin, as this plus Jin means someone goes away for good.
Overall, these drops range from excellent to middling, but there’s two big considerations for this whole superdrop.
First, they are all at the higher price point of $40 for nonfoil and $50 for foils. That’s a 25% bump, usually reserved for the charity drops, and the higher starting price means a longer time to get to profitability. Second, we’re in an era where the bots are running wild on these drops. The Kieran Yanner drop sold out in forty minutes last week, immediately taking bundles out of play for everyone and causing a scramble.
Wizards says what they are doing is to take everyone in the queue at 9 am and randomize them, so everyone’s got an equal chance. I’ve seen posts explaining how to game this system, but I’m not tech-savvy enough to know if it’s real or not. I’m presuming the worst, that everything will be bought up quickly.
In the before time, roughly seven months ago, I would have comfortably sat this one out, waiting for Dump Week and not worrying about mechanically unique cards. I wish that Secret Lair was only about reprints, but I’m not in charge. We’re in an era where the FOMO drives a lot of buying behavior, and we also see people reselling immediately to get their cash back. As an example, let’s look at two of the sold-out Spider-Man SL drops are on TCGplayer this week: Villainous Plots and Mana Symbiote lands. The Plots are available in nonfoil for $42 and foil for $51, which is $10 profit over the cost of buying in, but that’s before the tax on buying it, the fees from TCGPlayer, and the actual cost of shipping. I find it hard to believe they making more than pennies here.
Mana Symbiote is a bit better, with the sealed being $90 and the individual lands (two of each) adding up to $120 retail. People are in a hurry to buy but they are also in a mighty hurry to turn it over as fast as possible, even if that means a tiny profit or even a small loss.
I wish I could say that things will be reasonable around this drop, but I’m suspicious. I think the frenzy is on, and while some of the Secret Scare superdrop didn’t sell out, it’ll take a lot of non-selling-out to change behaviors. We’ve seen the Yanner, Iron Maiden, and Jaws drops resell for hefty profits (I’ve done that myself) so I expect the rush will be on despite these cards mostly being mid.
Personally, I’ll try to get a couple copies of Uncharted and Ghost, but if I get taken out by the rush and the queue, I won’t stress. Even right now, there’s opportunities in Dump Week to make a healthy profit. I want you to stay reasonable and thoughtful in a time that isn’t acting in either of those ways.
Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.
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