The new set is fully released as of today, though the prerelease isn’t for another week yet. Still, we’ve got all the information we need to look at the breakdown Wizards gives us and figure out how hard it is to open certain cards.
There’s nothing serialized in this set, though there’s a mega-rare textless Sothera, the Supervoid that is in less than 1% of packs.
So let’s look at the numbers, make some tables, and have some idea of how far someone will need to go to get the copies of the card they really, really want!
All of this information comes from the Collecting Edge of Eternities article, which tells us both how many of each card there are for each category, and what percentage of packs can open a card from that category. From there, it’s straightforward math.
The last three slots in a Collector Booster are where we want to focus, as that’s likely to have all the value, but first, let’s address what Play Boosters add to the quantities in circulation for the more chase cards. We can’t open Galaxy foils in Play Boosters, but there is a tiny chance of opening special frame foils.
Play Boosters have a dedicated foil slot, which can have:
- A common (58%), uncommon (32%), rare (6.4%), or mythic rare (1.1%) from Edge of Eternities‘s main set
- A rare (1%) or mythic rare (less than 1%) Stellar Sights land
- A rare (less than 1%) or mythic rare (less than 1%) borderless viewport, triumphant, or surreal space card
That first bullet point adds up to 98.5%. That means the mythic stellar sights, rare or mythic rare borderless viewport, triumphant, or surreal space cards add up to 1.5%.
Traditionally, mythic is twice as rare as regular rare. 58 non-main-set rares, and 27 mythics. So there’s two tiny numbers to multiply: first, you’ve got a 1.5% chance of drawing from this group, and then you’re rolling for a card from a pool of 143 cards (2 sets of rares, one of mythics). All told, that means to get a specific foil mythic rare from this group it is going to take you approximately 9,524 Play Boosters, and 4,767 packs to get a specific rare from this group of cards.
All told, it is substantially harder to get a rare foil of those types from a Play Booster than it is to get anything from Collector Boosters. This does add some extra copies into circulation, but it’s such a small number that I’m not going to stress it when thinking about the numbers of cards getting printed.
The first slot we care about in a EOE Collector Booster is the special frame nonfoil, which can have:
- A rare (47%) or mythic rare (5%) extended-art card from the Edge of Eternities main set
- A rare (7%) or mythic rare (4%) borderless viewport land
- A rare (17%) or mythic rare (3%) borderless triumphant card
- A rare (15%) or mythic rare (2%) borderless surreal space card
It’ll be tough to get those four nonfoil mythics in the Triumphant style, and that includes the new three-mana Tezzeret. Otherwise, this isn’t too bad, though a bit rarer than past sets with a nonfoil slot like this. We’ve had a couple sets in a row where nonfoil got two slots like this, which doubles your chances, but in EOE we’re using that for the Stellar Sights sheet.
Speaking of the Stellar Sights, that’s the next slot, with foils, nonfoils, and Galaxy Foils mixed together:
- A non-foil rare (36%) or mythic rare (9%) Stellar Sights land
- A non-foil rare (18%) or mythic rare (4%) poster Stellar Sights land
- A traditional foil rare (12%) or mythic rare (3%) Stellar Sights land
- A traditional foil rare (6%) or mythic rare (1.5%) poster Stellar Sights land
- A galaxy foil rare (6%) or mythic rare (1.5%) Stellar Sights land
- A galaxy foil rare (3%) or mythic rare (less than 1%) poster Stellar Sights land
To no one’s surprise, the Galaxy Foils are the hardest pulls, requiring an enormous number of packs to land on the mythics. This slot adds up to 80% rares, making for some mostly unimpressive pulls and some extremely pricey ones. Galaxy Foil versions of these creaturelands are going to lead to some feelsbad moments, but that’s the price we pay for these right now.
Finally, let’s look at the slot with all the other chase foils and frames. This last slot can have:
- A traditional foil rare (38%) or mythic rare (4%) extended-art card from the Edge of Eternities main set
- A traditional foil rare (6%) or mythic rare (3%) borderless viewport land
- A traditional foil rare (13%) or mythic rare (2%) borderless triumphant card
- A traditional foil rare (12%) or mythic rare (2%) borderless surreal space card
- A traditional foil Special Guests card (6%)
- A traditional foil (9%) or fracture foil (1%) Japan Showcase card
- All Japan Showcase cards will always appear in Japanese in Japanese Collector Boosters. For all other Collector Boosters, these cards appear in English two thirds of the time and Japanese one third of the time.
- A galaxy foil rare (2%) or mythic rare (1%) borderless viewport land
- A textless singularity foil Sothera, the Supervoid appears in less than 1% of Collector Boosters
These add up to 99%, so there’s some rounding errors going on for that textless Sothera. My guess is it lands at about the same rate as the galaxy foil Stellar mythics, around 2000 packs, but they gave us percentages that add up to exactly 100%, so we have no way of knowing for sure.
The Japan Showcase cards are subdivided further in non-Japanese-language CBs, where you have a 2/3 chance of opening one in the booster’s language and a 1/3 chance of Japanese. So in an English pack, it’ll take roughly 1515 packs to get a specific Showcase in Fracture Foil, or 3000 packs to get a Japanese-language version in Fracture Foil.
This slot is also very heavily pushed towards rares. In Collector Boosters, 71% of packs will open a rare in this slot, including the 2% that have Galaxy Foils. There’s an additional 16% for the Japan Showcases and the Special Guests, leaving just 13% of packs for mythics from any grouping. In a box of 12 packs, you’re looking at 1.5 mythics total, on average, coming from this slot. Packs are swingy by nature, but this is a very pronounced example of such wide potential values.
I hope this helps you make clear decisions about what to buy and what to open. If you want to talk about my math or methods, please reach out on social media or stop by the ProTrader Discord. Good luck in your pack cracking!
Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.