It is very possible that Wizards got extremely lucky. We are one week away from Pro Tour Oath of the Gatewatch, and it is very possible that this Modern event does the one thing that none of its predecessors has ever done before.
This event might actually feature new(ish) cards.
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Until the deck actually performs, wholeheartedly believing Eye will be banned by or before the next PT is ridiculous. I agree, that it is powerful and could be banned if the deck takes off and wins – but let’s wait until the deck performs like Splinter Twin, Pod and Summer Bloom before calling ban shots. So far, the deck hasn’t done anything. Yes, it is everywhere online, but is hasn’t won anything and hasn’t made up a high percent of winning decks at events. After it wins the PT or puts 3-4 decks in the top 8 and performs like Twin at Modern GPs or SCG events (racking up wins/high finishes) then let’s worry about the ban.
Also, it seems like a mistake to sell prior to the PT if you are expecting it to perform so well that it would necessitate an emergency ban. If it wins the PT or performs well the time to sell is the Sunday/Monday and week after the event not two weeks before.
Normally yes it’s bad to sell right before a PT but this was a new deck type with crazy spikes from hype. Not unreasonable at all to sell into that. Especially in hindsight of the bannings causing big change to the format.
But reading his article, he is saying the Eldrazi and Eye is so good that he expects it to be banned in one year or less. For that to happen, it needs major results at this PT. Eldrazi coming up big next weekend would lead to increased prices, at least a temporary spike, and that would mean selling now is the wrong move. It is inconsistent to tout the deck to the level that it needs a ban and sell off before the major event that would cause a spike. Again, it hasn’t won anything. It very well could be banned, but it is unreasonable to suggest that without any stats to back it up.
It’s partially expectation of results and largely the fact that the engine central to this deck (Eye and Temple) does things that Development doesn’t condone. I don’t think Eye of Ugin would have been printed as is if they knew that the eventual goal was to have small colorless Eldrazi creatures.
But the problem I have is if you are expecting such impressive results, then the cards have not hit their price ceiling and you are leaving money on the table. And if it does what you expect to warrant a ban, WOTC won’t emergency ban Eye or Temple so quickly that you cannot profit from those expected results and increased prices. WOTC won’t ban it unless it destroys the field. And honestly, after seeing a lot of results where the deck hasn’t done anything impressive I believe the deck will be good, not great and not format defining/warping to warrant a ban. The PT will in all likelihood be won by an aggro deck.
Casting reality smasher on turn 2 is not possible, or do I overlook something.
Yeah, I caught that mistake too late, although IF your opponent plays a turn 1 Urborg it still works.
I was happy to let go of a $55 Urborg Foil. I thought I’d have to wait a year or two until it hit that price, due to commander demand. Does anyone think I sold too soon? I picked it up for around $25 a year ago, so the return seems just fine to me.
I still have a couple non-foil Urborgs I need to get rid of but I might just wait for the PT and see if I can trade them to someone that week for some other $25 foil that will be $50+ in less than a year (fingers crossed).
This will be a very interesting deck and period of time to revisit about a year or so from now to see where everything ended up. If Foil Urborgs are $75+ a year from now I probably made a mistake selling into this initial spike. Either way, I made $20+ profit on a card I thought was just going to sit in my TCGPlayer inventory for at least a year.
Gotta love when a long-term spec turns into a short/mid-term spec right!?!?! Leave the lass 10 cents and smother some guy and all that! haha.
P.S. You DON’T need to list your long-term specs at “competitive” prices and stay on top of them, raising/ lowering the price… Just pick a price you are comfortable selling at, justify to yourself that the card should be worth that much in X amount of time and forget about it! If it sells sooner than you thought it would due to a spike like this, GOOD! Right? At least you had it listed for some ridiculous amount already and not sitting in a spec box.
Selling into spiking cards is as easy as having a “creatively” priced inventory. Sure your card is $10-$20 more than everyone elses… right now… But when that price spike happens… All of a sudden you have the cheapest card listed! And it SELLS! You are already getting paid by the time others are relisting copies they bought in the frenzy.
Pascal Maynard on Eldrazi and the PT: “I wouldn’t be surprised if no one plays Eldrazi at a Modern Pro Tour. People tend to play what they are comfortable with, and nobody can feel that way with the deck. It’s too new, has too many possible iterations, and the known and established lists of the deck have terrible matchups against the big three.”