Welcome back to the long-running, incredibly-complete series where we take Wizards’ obfuscations about drop rates and give you a clear answer to the question everyone wants: How hard is it to open the card I want from a Collector Booster? Or to put another way, what are my chances in these super-expensive packs?

It’s a well-known tidbit that you should never open packs, they are almost never worth it. The theory is extra-true in the modern day, where the Expected Value of a Collector Booster box is way out of line with the amount it takes to buy that box. 

Hype and FOMO are carrying the day, and if you’re feeling the heat, let’s go over some stone cold numbers, as we know the absolute truth for almost every card you could open. Let’s get to it!

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Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.