By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)
One of the most common misconceptions about folks involved in MTGFinance is that we are constantly manipulating the market and feeding players misinformation to help fuel achievement of our personal goals.
It has occurred to us at MTGPrice that though we dole out a good deal of advice, most of you ultimately have very little insight into when our writing team actually puts our money where our collective mouths are pointing. As such we’ve decided to run a weekly series breaking down what we’ve been buying and selling each week and why. These lists are meant to be both complete and transparent, leaving off only cards we bought without hope of profit, where appropriate. We’ll also try to provide some insight into our thinking behind the specs, and whether we are aiming for a short (<1 month), mid (1-12 month), or long (1 year+) term flip. Here’s what we were up to this week:
Buying Period: April 27 – May 3, 2015
Note: All cards NM unless otherwise noted. All sell prices are net of fees unless noted.
James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)
BOUGHT
- 4x boxes of Modern Masters 2015 @ $225
- 2x Tarmogoyf (MM) @ $135
- 7x Steam Vents (RTR) @ $8.50/per
- 4x Nylea God of the Hunt @$3/per
- 1x Sidisi, Undead Vizier (foil) @ $8
- 1x Heliod, God of the Sun @ $2
- 1x Shu Yun, the Silent Tempest (foil pre-release) @ $4
- 2x Glittering Wish @ $5/per
- 1x Soulfire Grand Master (foil) @ $15
- 1x Anticipate (foil) @ $8.50
- 2x Siege Rhino @ $4.00
- 1x Siege Rhino (pre-release foil) @ $11
- 1x Dragonlord Dromoka (foil) @ $17
- 4x Heliod, God of the Sun @ $2.50
- 4x Gitaxian Probe @ $2.00
- 1x Time Warp @ $8
- 1x Grove of the Burnwillows @ $27
- 1x Dromoka’s Command (Russian) @ $2.50
- 1x Atarka’s Command (Russian) @ $2.50
- 1x Kolaghan’s Command (Russian) @ $2.50
SOLD:
- 1x Fate Reforged Booster Box (Russian) @ $199 USD ($125 cost)
- 8x Den Protector @ $4/per ($1.25 cost)
- 5x Dragonlord Ojutai @ $32/per ($6 cost)
SOLD (Pucatrade)
- 3x Leyline of Sanctity @ $30.91 ($18 cost)
I’ve moved in even deeper on Modern Masters 2015 boxes as my sources all concur that the print run will be lower than expected and that many dealers will have trouble getting a hold of enough boxes to meet their local demand. Further proof comes from my receipt of offers from local dealers at prices far above what I’m buying for. You may be hearing that the print is bigger than last time, and it is, but a lot of that will be eaten up by the massive attendance at 3 GPs worldwide and a flurry of drafting at your local shop. I’m willing to bet that boxes are scarce by mid-June and the price tops $300 again. I’ll be happy to sell into the hype around the triple release GPs, but if I need to hold the boxes until Xmas season to yield my expected 30-40% returns, that’s fine too.
The Tarmogoyfs and the foil Siege Rhinos, along with the Steam Vents were all purchases of opportunity at GP Toronto, where some dealers from smaller towns surrounding Toronto were sporting remarkably low pricing on many staples. It felt like I could have gone very deep on value purchases at the event, and indeed several contacts reported dropping thousands in productive fashion. Selling into hype at a big tournament is always a good place to be, and I continued to unload Ojutai and Den Protector this week into amazing value.
Most of the rest of my buys were late night Ebay value purchases, where auctions were closing at prices below market value. We’re not quite at the season for summer pricing lows, but I’m starting to move in on the Theros gods, looking to acquire piles below $5 to out a few years later over $10.
Over on PucaTrade I continue to dump cards I expect are either peaking or likely to decline due to imminent reprint, with an eye to trading up into a $500-1000 card within a month or two of frequent trading. The latest dumps are Leyline of Sanctity out of my Abzan Tokens deck in Modern, based on the likely appearance of the card in Modern Masters 2015. I expect to get back into these below $20, so selling now at $30 in trade value is great.
Note: The rest of the guys were quiet this week. Look for updates this weekend.
Bonus Tip:
- Blue devotion is far from dead. A U/G devotion deck with 32 creatures and 4 Collected Company finished 4th at the SCG Open in Portland, and the deck looked very solid on camera. As such I’m in no rush to dump Thassa and Master of Waves just yet, since we’re only another strong finish away from a possible move on these cards. The worst case is a hold waiting for a version in Modern, which is entirely possible if we wait for a few more great creatures to take the formula over the top.
- Sell Noble Hierarch asap and look to move back in under $20 later this summer. It’s being reprinted at rare in MM2 and that should send the price crashing as the triple GP inventory floods the web in early June.
- Bitterblossom has been confirmed for MM2 as well, and will likely bleed value since it’s not seeing heavy play at present.
So there you have it. Now what were you guys buying and selling this week and why?
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Hey there!
Nice pick ups, as usual!
I read your comment about noble hierarch; what about Conflux French FOIL ones? (I own one myself)
Is it likely to tank? (I know foils act very different than normal cards)
Thanks!
Hello James, since I came back after a long hiatus, I am mostly working to get rid of cards I do not use, and acquire playsets of standard/modern/edh staples I need, trying to get them as cheap as I can
Sold:
1x Braid of Fire ITA (foil) @€12,50
1x Braid of Fire ITA ex @€4
Bought:
1x Gilded Lotus M13 @€2
2x Swords to Plowshares @€1
15x Strionic Resonator @€0,25
Trade out (Pucatrade):
1x Helix Pinnacle @660
2x Puppeteer lique @535
1x Magus of the Moon @980
1x Bloodchief Ascension @410
1x Gilder Bairn @369
1x Juniper Order Ranger @118
1x Den Protector @500
1x Lurking Predators @415
Trade In (Pucatrade)
3x Anafenza, the Foremost @475
2x Stony Silence @420
1x Mutavault @1160
4x Young Pyromancer @255
4x Timely Reinforcements @132
2x Boros Charm @228
1x Monastery Mentor @1717
1x Stomping Ground @870
1x Seachrome Coast @370
2x City of Brass (Event Deck) @245
Monastery Mentor was Anafenza were acquired to complete their playsets. All other Puca trades in are cards that should not be included in MM2015. I will move on other modern staples as soon as MM2015 spoilers will be completed.
Strionic Resonators are just a little finacial bet since I really like this card in EDH. I use it with both Narset and Kaalia and playing up to 8 free spells or dumping 2 angels/demons/dragons per time is devastating! 😛
oh man, I picked up boxes from 250 to 270, I haven’t been able to find them any cheaper (I’ve been mostly just buylisting to buy them but did grab a few with cash @ 250)
10 x Foil Blood Crypts (RTR) @ 19 per (the original Blood Crypts spiked to over $100 on mtgstocks) This is a short to long term hold depending on how much these spike in sympathy to the original Crypts
25 x Soulflayers (FRF) @ $.70 per I still think that at some point in the next release or two we will get something that will pair up with this cards delve ability to make it strong.
Debating on buylisting a couple of Modern Masters 2015 boxes at $260 each… any thoughts on if the ROI would be worth it? I honestly don’t see the value hitting much higher than $300 and if I were forced to sell online the paypal/ebay fees would eat that to almost zero profit.
Oh, also outed my 6 Draglord Silumgar for 2 for $20 on ebay and 4 to ABU games for $9.45 each. I save more by not losing out on fees from ebay by buylisting. I bought each for $5-6 on tcg before they spiked hard.
Bought:
x1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth – Planar Chaos – Foil – $32.75
This was a late night ebay win. I noticed the auction was closing at 4am or something and put in a bid UNDER buylist prices and won because no one was snipe bidding at 4am. Huge lesson for both buyers and sellers here. Buy at 4am and NEVER have your auctions close early in the morning.
x4 Rattleclaw Mystic – KTK – $4.75 total (1.19ea)
Another late night ebay win where I put in my max bid at a pretty good price and had no competitive snipe bidders driving up the price. More of a personal buy, I’m going to start brewing with these and Den Pro/Raptor. These might end up seeing major play after rotation, or sooner than that.
x1 Dromoka’s Command – DTK – Foil $11.00
I’m confident that foils are simply lagging behind in price and will reach $20 at some point. I have 3 of these so far.
Sold (all on TCGPlayer):
x4 Den Protector – DTK – $26.00 ($6.50ea)
I sold a previous playset for $4.50ea but I held out one last playset for a spike. I got lucky and the spike came quickly.
x1 Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver $10.75
I’ve been trying to get rid if this for awhile. I’m glad it finally sold. Its been tanking for a long time.
Hey Mr. Chillcott, you and I both seem to have a lot of success with our early morning/ late night ebay bids. You also have some great access to rock bottom prices for other things. Maybe you could put an article together about niche-buying/selling strategies. Supply and Demand fluctuate radically simply based on what time it is and what town you are in in some cases (where did you get your MM15 boxes? North Dakota? lol) I would love to read an article with some of your buying secrets. Seems like a good Pro-Trader idea?
Thank you so much for sharing this valuable information with non-pro-traders (I thought I read, it would move behind the paywall, too). Being from Europe, the price movements usually take a few days longer here (apart from Tournaments), so I can make good use of this 🙂