All posts by Cliff Daigle

I am a father, teacher, cuber and EDH fanatic. My joy is in Casual and Limited formats, though I dip a toe into Constructed when I find something fun to play. I play less than I want to and more than my schedule should really allow. I can easily be reached on Twitter @WordOfCommander. Try out my Busted Uncommons cube at http://www.cubetutor.com/viewcube/76330

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Are we buying the Roll for Initiative Superdrop?

February 6, 2026 Cliff Daigle Leave a comment

Yup, this feels about right. Fallout Secret Lair v2 was on January 26. Then there was a surprise drop on February 2, the Prints Charming drop with the variety of pricing models. And for the third Monday in a row, there will be a new Secret Lair drop coming. This is a superdrop, with seven different drops making it up and sadly there’s a basic lands drop, but we’ll get to that in a moment.

We’ve got seven sets of cards to review, and let’s discuss their popularity, price, and what we can compare them to.

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Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

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Planning for the Marvel Super Heroes Commander Decks

January 30, 2026 Cliff Daigle Leave a comment

We got a lot of previews for Marvel Super Heroes this week, and of note is that we’re getting four Commander decks, each one coming in regular and Collector flavors.

The decks have themes as printed on the box, and while we don’t know any of the contained cards, we made good money off of Elementals and -1/-1 counters as themes, so let’s see what we can figure out ahead of time. That way when the decklists are revealed, we are ready to dive in.

Fantastic Four: Noncreature Spells and Protection Fields

This is going to be hard to figure out in terms of specs, because there’s so many good noncreature spells to cast. The four of them are good, and any can be the focus. I think Mister Fantastic is the strongest, because we love drawing cards and there are a LOT of triggered abilities worth copying twice. He can even target his own ability, if you’d like to draw three cards.

I’m interested in the Human Torch, too, but you’ve got to cast a noncreature spell and then cast him, which is a lot of your mana used up and blessed little for protection.

It might be that the best route is mana rocks, but we’ll see what this set of commanders leads to.

Wakanda Forever: Power Up With Artifacts, Reign as the Monarch

T’Challa is clearly telling you to play artifacts and keep playing them, and let’s go over a few things that look possible:

Peregrin Took wants to add some food to your Vibranium. Queen Allenal of Ruadach means that your Vibranium can get you token Soldiers too. Stridehangar Automaton on the field delivers bonus Thopters if that’s more your speed.

The packaging also mentions being the monarch, which is a space that’s been lightly explored, so if it’s only half the theme, we’ll see what kinds of reprints we’ll get for white and green cards. Courts of Garenbring and Ardenvale seem likely to get reprinted, but there’s pretty limited space so they won’t all get a new hit.

I admit that when I saw the packaging (and before we knew that there would be Collector decks) I ran out and bought stacks of FEA Archon of Coronation and the Scrolls foil Champions of Minas Tirith. Looking back, I wish I’d waited just a little bit longer, because if they are reprinted, these purchases won’t go up much. I feel more confident about the Champions, because LOTR reprints are few and far between, but these might languish forever, depending on the quality of the Monarch-themed commander that comes in the deck.

Avengers Assemble: Grow your ranks, Equipment and Counters

First of all, you’ve got to look at the heroes in these three colors. Hero is a creature type that hasn’t been used, not since Benalish Hero was errata’d into being a Human Soldier instead of its printed type of Hero. The only other Hero that predates the Spider-Man set is the Unhinged Legend himself, Fraction Jackson. I’m all for memes, and cheap memes at that, but I have trouble imagining that it would be worth the effort of buying these up.

Changelings would be fun here, and everything that adds bonus counters is on the table. I expect that this is a glorious place to reprint basic copies of Panharmonicon or Roaming Throne for extra triggers, and I’ve lost count of the sweet Equipment bonuses present in RW. My favorites for the Equipment-heavy decks would easily be the ‘affinity for Equipment’ cards Goldwardens’ Gambit and Nahiri, Forged in Fire, but we’ll have to see what Equipment enablers are about to get released.

Doom Prevails: Connive for power, drain life

I want to thank the ProTrader Discord for confirming some of my ideas and giving me others. If you’re not a ProTrader, you’re missing out on some glorious card combos.

Doctor Doom rewards you for discarding lands, either for conniving or for any reason, so my favorite pick here is easily Tectonic Reformation. If you can start chaining the lands into more lands, this combo is immediately reduced to ‘R: Each opponent loses 2 life’ and that is some big game.Trade Routes can do something similar. Decaying Time Loop is also glorious, because you can get a trigger from the retrace and a trigger from the lands you chuck. Land’s Edge is pretty hilarious, giving everyone the ability to Shock players, but only yours comes with bonus life loss for them. Molten Vortex and Seismic Assault do the same thing. Battle of Kaldheim too, but that needs you to attack the Battle for four damage, and I’m not sure if the juice is worth the squeeze there.

Glint-Horn Buccaneer should see a bump, as we love playing effects that are redundant with Commanders. This also includes Hazoret the Fervent

I have to point out that this is a deck where Mind Over Matter plus some form of “tap: draw a card” means you’ll win, and if you want a backup, Trickster Mage does nearly the same thing.Trade Routes can do something similar. I also like Surly Badgersaur as an engine piece, giving you a Treasure every time you chuck a land. Waste Not and Bone Miser are likely includes in the deck, but if they somehow leave those out, buy them immediately.

All of the Grixis lands with cycling are likely good here too, but there are some awesome cards that ask you to discard cards as part of the cost. Favorites include Dreamscape Artist, Diplomatic Escort, Jaya Ballard, Psychic Frog, Skirge Familiar to add mana, Stronghold Biologist and Machinist to counter creature/noncreature spells, but my two all-stars would be Chamber of Manipulation and Overtaker, turning your land cards into creature-stealing effects for fun and profit.

Casual Fridays, Uncategorized

Are We Buying The Fallout X Magic Secret Lair: Rad Superdrop?

January 23, 2026 Cliff Daigle Leave a comment

It’s been forever since the last time we got a Secret Lair! We were supposed to get Monster Hunter on December 1st, but Wizards pulled that after the litany of errors and the cacophony of unhappy hunters. That means it’s been more than two months! We’re definitely never getting a gap like that again in 2026. Heck, we’re getting a real set every two months!

This is the second Fallout Secret Lair drop and it’s timed to come out a little after Fallout’s second season has aired, so we’re getting some new cards, some awesome reprints, and a little something for everyone.

For each card, I’ll give you the number of special printings, and the current retail for each. In addition, I’ll give you the EDHREC number, because that’s a great indication of the popularity of the card, even if EDHREC is skewed towards precons and the most invested players, it’s still data worth knowing. Also, all the Lairs are $30 for the nonfoils and $40 for the foils, unless otherwise noted.

Lucy, The Ghoul, and Maximus are new to Magic and have no stats to speak of.

Pre-War Formalwear (FEA $8, 18k decks)

Spirit Mantle (M12 foil $15, 68k decks)

T-45 Power Armor (FEA $2, 13k decks)

First off, this Lair is $40 for nonfoils and $50 for the foils. That’s important context when the cards themselves are kind of mid. Mantle is a popular choice in decks where a Commander needs to get through and deal damage to a player, but it’s not expensive. The three new cards are interesting, and I think The Ghoul is the most powerful, by far, but I also think there are going to be some crazy Energy combos with Maximus and Lucy is just a value engine, since tokens are made all the damn time in Commander.

Considering that this is the headliner, I’m expecting supply to be high on this one but as we’ll get to, I think FOMO will make this sell out eventually and it’ll turn a profit. I don’t think the cards are good enough on their own, just so I’m clear, but I’m preparing for the psychological aspect and the bot networks to make it sell out.

Yoshimaru, Ever Faithful (EA $12, Magicfest $30, SLD 2021 $80, 15k as partner and 30k as card)

Arcane Signet (tons, all the decks)

Sol Ring (tons, all the decks)

Lightning Greaves (50 printings, most borderless are $5-$10, 2 million decks)

Patchwork Banner (pack foil $8, 307k decks)

No, seriously, Signet has 80 printings and Sol Ring has 122.

Yoshi is popular in Jodah as a legend that’s only one mana, Signet and Sol Ring can’t really go wrong, Greaves is everywhere, and this is the first special printing for the Banner. Most importantly, though, this is a Lair focusing on adorable dogs, and we’ve proven, over and over again, that it’s a recipe for success.

I’m going to buy every copy I can of this, and I encourage you to do the same. I fully expect this to be the first Lair to sell out, just because plenty of folks will buy the bundle and then add a couple of these to the cart. This is pure profit, easy money, Eddie/Kieran Yanner level of demand, thanks to the combo of staples and good boys.

Ripples of Potential (EA $7, 105k decks)

Mutational Advantage (FEA $10, 60k decks)

The Wise Mothman (Surge Showcase $200, Foil Showcase $20, 28k decks as commander, #11 in last two years)

Mindcrank (NPH pack foil $40, SLD foil $21, 121k decks)

Mesmeric Orb (Retro foil $30, 109k decks)

Wizards likes to do this sort of thing, where there’s one commander, and several of the accessories. This time, they picked one of the most popular commanders of the last couple years, and added several favorite cards. Does it matter that Mindcrank just got a badass version in Iron Maiden? Not at all! This is a fantastic Lair and I plan to max out here as well. Rad counters are just too good a theme and too fun an experience for me to pass up these cards.

Tinybones, Trinket Thief (SLD foil $35, 4k as commander, 19k as card)

Isshin, Two Heavens as One (FCA foil $55, 25k decks as commander, 69k as card)

The Deck of Many Things (Ampersand foil $25, 28k decks)

Caged Sun (Surge foil $8, Retro foil $5, 137k decks)

Nuka-Cola Vending Machine (Borderless foil $40, Surge foil $80, 89k decks)

The big draws here are Tinybones and the Nuka-Cola Machine. The Machine is a terrifying card in any Food-based deck, and thank goodness the Treasure comes in tapped. We’re a few months away from The Hobbit, and where there’s Hobbits, there’s Food synergies. I fully expect this to get to a floor in Dump Week and take off from there. Isshin just got a sweet Lightning version in the Final Fantasy bonus sheet, so that should recover nicely unless they go for a third printing in the next few months.

I’m in for this Lair, but mainly for the big two.

We don’t know what the bundle prices will be (my expectations are that it’ll be a very meager savings) but I don’t mind spending the money, because we’ll get a Silver Shroud Costume promo for every $149 we spend. This is $45 for the surge foil, but a regular frame, and even $12 for the regular nonfoil, and it’s in 67k decks. You’ll get at least $20 for selling that, and every bit helps bring down the price.

My personal plan is to max out on bundles, and add extras of everything but Vault 33. I don’t know what the max amounts will be, but I’m expecting it’ll be limited to two of each item/bundle again. I’m going after foils and nonfoils equally here.

Finally, please notice that Wizards is telling you to get in the queue and be ready Monday morning. You can load a cart starting an hour early, and when 9 am (12 noon EST) hits, you’ll be randomized for your place in line. So get logged in, get your carts ready, and keep your fingers crossed!

Casual Fridays

The Mana Math of Lorwyn Eclipsed

January 16, 2026 Cliff Daigle Leave a comment

With seven sets coming in 2026, there’s going to be a lot of times I say these words: It’s time to do some math!

That’s right, Lorwyn Eclipsed is about to be released, and we need to do some arithmetic in order to figure out how likely it is that Collector Boosters will contain what we want.

So strap on a calculator, kids, and let’s get into it!

In running these numbers, I’m just using Wizards’ released information about the makeup of Collector Booster packs. The focus is on those CBs, because that’s where the best stuff will be. There’s a tiny chance of these showing up in Play Boosters, but generally, don’t waste your time with those if you like to crack packs.

First off, let’s talk about nonfoil cards.

It’s not every set where Wizards puts two nonfoils in the CBs this way, but when they do, it leads to a LOT of nonfoils entering the market. Especially the rares of each type, you’re at just over 83% of these slots having rares. Definitely could lead to some bricks being bought down the line, depending on the cards.

Even with the double-up on the slot, you’re still looking at ten boxes of CBs to get that one fetchland in particular. Pretty tough pull, as nonfoils go.I’d look for these to be a little bit pricier than expected.

The foil slot, as always, has the best stuff:

The official MSRP of a CB pack is $27, so that’s what I’m using for my estimates.

In case you missed the bit in the article about collecting this set, we’re done getting Japanese-language Fracture Foils in English-language CBs. Those will only be found in the Japanese-language CBs. This is phrased as a permanent change, but we’ll see if that holds.

As for the cards in this slot, we’re not seeing anything too wildly rare. Everything can be had in under 200 packs, which is pretty good for this sort of thing. If you’re expecting the mega-rares of the recent Universes Beyond sets, well, this won’t be as difficult.

With the shift in Fracture Foils, now we’ve got an interesting case. We know precisely what the ratio is of regular foil to Fracture Foil, it’s 9:1 and that means the expectation is that if a Fracture Foil costs $100, then the regular foil should be $11. To put another way, according to the math, nine regular foils should add up to the price of one Fracture Foil.

The problem here is that we don’t know what the demand will look like, and if the Fracture Foil collectors was to go ham, they will, and throw the ratio all out of whack. As an example, let’s look at the Japan Showcase of Bloodthirsty Conqueror. The regular foil is right at $100, and the Fracture Foil is just about three times that much. (both of those are in English, for the record.)

Blessed few of the Fracture Foils currently have a ratio near 9:1, but that’s with the JPN versions getting opened. We’ll have to keep an eye on where the prices end up.

The Special Guests part of this is about in line with other sets too. Specific cards are usually between 150-200 packs, and that’s what we’ve got here. There will be some excellent targets among the foils, I think, but the truly interesting case will be the nonfoils. Those are only found in the Play Boosters, and you’re 1 in 55 to get a SPG card. Since there’s 20 options, that means it’ll take 1,100 Play Boosters to get one particular nonfoil.

Using Wizards’ MSRP, we can see that the cost in Play Boosters will be just over six grand, and that’s roughly $900 more than it’ll cost to open a foil version. It’s rare enough for the foils and nonfoils to be close in price, much less have the nonfoil as costing more. I’ll be watching to see if there’s deals to be had early, but this is another case where collectors might end up pushing the price to illogical levels.

The final point that jumps out at me is that 62.8% of the CBs opened will have a Rare FEA, a Foil Rare Fable Frame, or a Foil Rare Borderless card. They have a vested interest in keeping mythics at a lower drop rate, but if you add in the 10% of SPGs, now you’re talking about only 1 in 4 Collector Boosters having a foil mythic, and that’s a bit of a change from previous sets. It remains to be seen if that’ll damage the finances of those mythics, but really, it’ll be all about Commander demand.

Last but not least, let’s talk about the Double Rainbow Foil Serialized Bitterblossom Bearer. I’ve made a table to show some of the likely drop rates, and how they contribute revenue for Wizards.

($250 is our estimated distributor buy price, or what Wizards makes when they sell the boxes to a distributor)

For a little context, Lord of the Rings Holiday edition was at 1.5 million packs, and the main summer set was 3.3 million. We’re estimating this is closer to Edge of Eternities’ print run, which was probably in the realm of 2 to 2.5 million packs. So I’m giving the estimate of about 1 in 5,000 Collector Boosters to snag a serialized card.

I want to repeat, this is an estimate. If you get me some solid data on how many Collector Boosters Wizards makes for a set, I’d love to have that piece of information.

I hope these charts are helpful as you decide what to buy and what to open. If you have questions or concerns, I’m happy to talk about the specifics on social media or in the ProTrader Discord. Good luck with your packs!

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