It’s here, it’s here, thank goodness the precious has arrived fully!

However, as I wrote about last week, there are some really specific things going on with this set that are outside the normal experience, and it’s worth going over the details here. There’s money to be made as well!

So let’s talk about the choices Wizards made here, and how different the situation is with Foil Extended Art (FEA) cards from Universes Beyond: Lord of the Rings.

In most sets, FEA is a treatment given to the cards that didn’t get the Showcase treatment. For this set, Lord of the Rings, the showcase is a Ring-centric frame, like this:

It’s a neat l;ook, works well with the stuff that’s going on, and while it’s a little plain, it makes a lot of sense for the set. The Script around the edge is probably pretty sweet in foil, too.

For this set, we also have Borderless cards that are part of a Scene:

Generally speaking, in past sets, if a card didn’t get a special version, it would get an Extended Art version, where the art from the regular frame version would be extended to the left and right, keeping a border on top and bottom:

It’s not uncommon for a card to have an EA frame as well as some other special version. In Modern Horizons 2, there were several versions of fetchlands: Original, EA, Etched Foil, and Retro frame.

For Lord of the Rings, there’s an additional wrinkle with the EA cards: foils are not in the Collector Boosters as usual. Instead, the FEA versions can only be found in the two-card Collector Booster Sample Pack that comes with Commander preconstructed decks. I gave a mathematical breakdown of what your odds are for pulling specific cards last week, but the tiny numbers of FEA cards in circulation have me looking for more data. If you’ve opened ten or more of these packs and happened to write down exactly what you got from that mini-pack, hit me up on the Discord or on Twitter.

Since last week, I’ve been scouring ebay, TCGPlayer, most of the big sites for FEA cards and I’ve mostly come up blank. I preordered some on TCGPlayer, but more than half of those have been canceled on me, stating they don’t have the card after all.

The big operations will crack precons for selling the singles, but it’ll be hard for the precons to keep any value that way and the Sample Packs have a lot of cards in there that are repeats of cards already in the Collector Boosters. I watched a YouTube video with 80 packs being opened, and they got four foil mythics: Two of them were FEA versions of ‘face commanders’, which are the eight cards already in Collector Boosters. One was a Foil Borderless Scene card (also in those boosters) and there was a single FEA Palantir of Orthanc in that stack. 

This set is already a lottery-ticket dispenser with the special Rings and the Surge foil Realms and Relics, they didn’t need to add in the FEAs this way but here we are, with TCGPlayer having no FEA versions (yet) of most of these cards, or if there are any, they are at absurd prices.

Complicating this is that the majority of players who buy a preconstructed Commander deck aren’t going to sell the Sample Packs cards online. They will open the bonus pack, get a sweet foil, and look for a deck to put that card into, or perhaps pop it into a binder for trading. It won’t go on the usual sales sites, lowering the available quantities even further.

So in these first weeks, we’ll want to pay attention to the cards whose only premium version is FEA. If there’s an FEA and a Borderless/Showcase, I’ll notice it but players will have a clear choice. For instance, Delighted Halfling has a FEA and a Borderless Scene. The FEA has sold consistently over $40, and the Scene version in foil sells for a dollar or two more than the regular nonfoil. Given the card’s popularity, I’ll be watching, but I’m leery of a $40 card the first weekend turning into the $70-$80 I need for a reasonable profit after taxes, fees, and shipping.

FEA The One Ring is going to be really rare. Remember that The One Ring comes in bundles, so copies of the card will be all over the place, along with the Scene version, but FEA is going to be the most expensive version for quite a while.

Let’s get granular here about specific cards. Wizards has released the official list of what has an FEA and what doesn’t.

What does:

Now, here’s the table for the cards that do not have Extended Art versions:

It appears, according to TCG and other sites, that these are all in such low quantities that it’s hard to be sure that foils of all of these actually exist. I know of the preordering I did, none of the cards from Jumpstart or the Starter decks were fulfilled. I’ll update this article as needed throughout the weekend if I get reports that these foils exist. It’s quite possible that only Main Set cards got FEA treatments done, and those are mixed in with other foil variants in the Sample Packs.

The small quantities and the difficulty opening one, combined with the range of changes, is also probably causing a fair amount of mislabeling and/or incorrect inventory. People who open a lot of Collector Boosters but don’t read up about the drop rates might think, “Oh yeah, we get a handful of FEA cards every set” but those aren’t going to pop up here, leading to cancellations.

Those 25 Main Set rares and Mythics are the cards I’m especially keeping an eye on. The assorted ‘Surge Foils’ might become targets once we have more data, or perhaps an announcement. Mithril Coat is worth playing alongside Hammer of Nazahn, or maybe replacing it completely. Elven Chorus is a card just about every Green deck ought to play. Horn of the Mark is a draw engine for aggressive decks, just the thing to keep the aggression flowing, and so on.

The big caveat here is that if you plan to get some FEA cards and resell them for a higher price, you’re going to have to move fast. The Holiday Release will have at least one new frame, but also might include FEA cards, putting more into circulation. The cards I’ve preordered, I’m planning on turning over before August is over, just to avoid any potential reprint risk. It may turn out to be fine, but we won’t know till it’s announced or leaked, and then it’ll either go crazy or drop like a rock. I don’t want to be holding rocks.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Buckle up, people, because we’ve got a lot to talk about. Every set, Wizards gives us some information, and from that information, we can calculate very specific ratios and odds for what we can open out of Collector Booster packs.

So let’s get to it, and insert your own ‘find the precious’ joke here.

First of all, the whale in the kiddie pool. The One Ring (001/001) is the first serialized singleton in Magic’s history. There’s a couple other exceedingly rare, or one-of cards, in Magic’s history but those are prizes and giveaways. This time, someone’s going to open it. 

We’re outright told in the Collecting Lord of the Rings article that there’s less than a 0.00003% chance of opening the card. In math terms, that’s less than 0.0000003. If you remember reciprocals, that’s handy here as that decimal is also expressed as 1/3,333,333 and that’s how many packs we’re talking. 

Granted, there’s a ‘less than’ in that sentence, so it could be that there’s 3.5 million Collector Booster packs that are eligible. Or four million. We’re going to use the 3.3 million as a known figure, and know that the odds aren’t going to get better, just potentially worse. Wizards likes to be cagey about its actual sales numbers to the public, but this 3.3 million is a helpful guide for future sets.

So one pack in 3.3 million will have The One Ring. There’s three other serialized cards: Sol Ring with Elven art, Dwarven art, and Human art. Respectively, there’s 300 copies, 700 copies, and 900 copies. We know how many copies there are, and we know there’s at least 3.3 million packs, so we can estimate how many packs it would take to get one of those serialized Sol Rings.

That’s some long odds, but if Sam and Frodo could do it, don’t give up hope! Someone’s going to open these, and claim quite the windfall. 

Let’s talk for a moment about what we can get in terms of special treatments. Last week I wrote about the Box Toppers, and how every box gets a traditional foil. In Collector Boosters, those can show up in nonfoil in one slot, and Surge Foil in the final slot.

There are three special versions of LOTR cards: The Showcase Ring frame, the Borderless Scene cards, and Extended-Art cards. Every card has at least one of those, except for the Sagas, which exist only in regular frame foil and nonfoil. In the last slot in a Collector Booster, you can get any of these cards:

Yes, you’re reading that right. Surge foil Box Toppers are going to be slightly more rare than Human Sol Rings. Given 3.3 million packs, there’s approximately 867 of each Surge Foil Box Topper. 

Of course, these aren’t serialized Surge Foils, and that’ll keep the prices lower. There’s also some less appealing choices in the list, such as a Thorn of Amethyst, that will mess with folks’ perception of what these prices should be. 

Here’s one thing that’s missing from that slot: Foil Extended-Art cards. Wizards hasn’t had a problem shoving all sorts of cards into one slot before, but this time, FEA cards from the main set and the Commander product aren’t going to be in the Collector Boosters. There’s slots for non-foil EA treatments, both main set and the Commander cards, but FEA got left out of these packs. 

Instead, they’ve been added to the Collector Booster Sample Packs, the two-card packs found inside of Commander precons. Here’s what’s officially in those: “a 2-card Collector Booster Sample Pack (contains 1 Traditional Foil or nonfoil special treatment card of rarity Rare or higher and 1 Traditional Foil special treatment Common or Uncommon card).” 

We know from the Collecting article that there are 28 rares and 9 mythics from the main set in the EA treatment. The Sample Packs have everything from the last slot in a CB, minus the Box Toppers and adding in those 13 FEA rares and 5 FEA mythics from the main set. There’s a stack of rares and mythics with no FEA version at all.

With all the options in a Sample Pack, here’s how the data breaks down:

We don’t have the same estimates on how many Commander decks get made as we do for the number of Collector Boosters printed, but it’s still an intimidatingly small ratio to get that FEA mythic. 

With all that said, let’s come up with some relative rarities for individual cards/treatments: 

The biggest takeaway here is that Surge foils are crazy rare, and preorder prices bear this out. We should look for these to sell quickly, or at very high price points. 

Secondarily, we want to keep a close eye on the FEA cards from the main set that are only in the Sample Packs. Especially if there’s no other special version of the card, these foils are going to be opened quite infrequently. Prices might rise fast, and quantities will be low.

I hope all this math helps inform your buying, both of packs and of cards, and as always, if you have data you want to show me, please reach out on Twitter or our Discord! 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

There’s a lot going on in the Lord of the Rings set. In the early previews, we’ve gotten a pretty fantastic build-around Commander, who does something unique in a prevalent tribe and in some new colors:

Éowyn, Shieldmaiden, is not a defensive Commander, despite her name. She wants a legion of Humans coming into play, attacking for a bunch, and drawing you cards. This looks to be a fun build, focusing on a tribe that doesn’t have a strong, thematic, multicolor Commander. There’s a couple members of the Kudro family, and several versions of Sigarda who want you to play Humans, but Éowyn tells you exactly what to do, preferably the turn she comes into play so you can get some bonuses immediately.

This is probably going to cause some spikes going forward, and let’s make a preliminary list and see what we can do right away.

I’m not going to lie: There’s a boatload and a half of choice for a Humans deck. Scryfall says there’s 2,037 humans in these colors, and while I think my choices are defensible, more will pop. That’s just the nature of things. Secondly, with Commander Masters coming, plus Secret Lairs, etc., reprints are going to hit some of these cards. It’s pretty certain that at least one of these will be reprinted soon, actually more than one because my first mention is a confirmed reprint for later this year.

Rick, Steadfast Leader ($50 or so) – I have said on podcasts and articles what a terrible idea it is for new cards to only be available in special forms like this. The Walking Dead Secret Lair was the first example of this, and they’ve gone back to this well, promising to use The List to put more copies out there. It’s been done for Stranger Things, it’s due for Street Fighter and the recent D&D set as well.

Rick will get reprinted in The List for Wilds of Eldraine, along with Negan and the whole crew. Rick is clearly the best of the bunch, giving two good abilities and a huge stat boost for only four mana. Being at $50 right now, this is a card you really want to have in any Human-based deck, and the good news is that The List copies, while only being available in nonfoil, promise to be a lot cheaper.

The originals, only available in foil, have a chance to appreciate from here and I think you can at least be able to move any copies you have from $50 to $75. It moves a couple copies a day, and offers a chance at some profit. At the least, get your personal copy now if you want a shiny version.

Esper Sentinel ($30 for the cheapest version, up to about $46 for the most expensive) – A very strong contender for a reprint in CMM in August, this does everything you want in a Humans deck. It draws you cards when your opponents do things they are guaranteed to do, and also offers you a chance to play a one-drop Human for Éowyn, play her, and profit.

Esper Sentinel has reached mega-staple status on EDHREC, being in 256,000 listed decks, and so the reprint is coming. Until it does, Éowyn is going to be part of why this card keeps rising higher and higher.

Hanweir Garrison ($5-$8) and Hanweir Battlements ($4-$9) – These are two cards that haven’t really had a deck that allows them to sing, but are perfect for Éowyn. We want haste, we want lots and lots of Humans, and everyone loves Melding cards for giant cards. 

The only thing that doesn’t work is that the Garrison’s attack trigger happens a little too late for Éowyn’s trigger, which is at the beginning of combat. Garrison is one of the fastest ways to get to six Humans, though, so when this starts climbing, be ready to cash in.

Grand Abolisher ($27 to $121) – Another card that’s begging for a reprint, the only foils of this from M12 are more than a hundred bucks. As useful Humans go, this one is worth the price of admission.

Having this in play gives you such a feeling of security, that nothing can go wrong. This ought to be in more decks, but it’s so noninteractive that I think Wizards has been hesitant to reprint it. I’m constantly surprised that it’s not played in Modern more. If it dodges a reprint in CMM this summer, we’ll see this grow as folks want the warm safety blanket.

Sakashima of a Thousand Faces ($27-$40), Sakashima the Impostor ($3 to $143) and Sakashima’s Student ($14, no foils) – It’s easy to forget that these aren’t just Clone effects, they are Humans and will work with lots of effects. You might not want them to come in as copies of your Humans, but you might also want them to copy your Commander, which two of them can do. 

Again, I’m expecting at least one of these to catch a reprint in Commander Masters, so speculate carefully, but these cards are also under pressure from clone themes and ninja decks, so this isn’t just a spec based on Éowyn.

Hero of Precinct One (all under $1) – Now let’s get to the cards that synergize best with Éowyn’s text box. In this instance, if you have the Hero, and cast Éowyn, you’ll get the trigger, create a token, and then Éowyn will see that you had a Human come into play and all of her fun happens. If you have even one other Human, you’ll immediately get a card.

This was from Ravnica Allegiance, so there’s no special versions, only regular and foil. This is a pretty cheap card to get a premium treatment now, but we’ll see about the reprints we get going forward. For now, buy a brick now and buylist them out for $2 each.

Outlaws’ Merriment (50¢ to $8) – There have been a lot of ways to potentially use this random effect, especially given the ‘party’ mechanic, but no matter which token you get, it’s good with Éowyn. It’s a damn shame that Assemble the Legion is Soldier tokens, but you get what you get. For the Merriment, I think I’d prefer to be stocked up on the super-cheap copies, though the FEA versions are also at their lowest:

As a mythic from the first FEA set, there aren’t a lot of these on TCG right now and if you’re going to go build Éowyn’s deck, this is an excellent place to start. The low number of copies is appealing on the FEA, but there’s definite brick potential in buying a whole lot under a dollar and buylisting them for double to triple that.

Thraben Doomsayer (25¢ to $3) – Foils at $3 would be the play here, as they are from 2012 and there are relatively few in circulation. Nonfoils were in Commander 2020 decks, and there’s a very large number of those around. Again, this as a play before Éowyn means you get all of Éowyn’s goodness on the turn she comes down, and I hope you’re never in a Fateful Hour situation.

Gallows at Willow Hill (25¢ to 75¢) – Finally, a pet card of mine when I had a Humans token deck a while ago. You will be amazed at the number of times you can activate this card with token makers like Call the Coppercoats, Increasing Devotion, Reverent Hoplite, etc. Reusable ways to destroy creatures is a great way to make up for how undersized your Humans are, and if there’s no good attacks, you can just solve target problem. I don’t think this will bite hard price-wise, but it’s an example of the random Humans and Human accessories we’re about to see spike.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.