If you are feeling burned out on Secret Lair purchases, that’s valid. It’s been a never-ending stream of cards from the fire hose, with Universes Beyond and Post Malone and 30th Anniversary Countdown, plus everything else that’s come along in the six months before that.

We had something interesting happen, though. A Festival-In-A-Box (hereafter known as FIAB) was released for the Magic event in Philadelphia in March. The last time a FIAB went on sale, it was gone in hours. This time…it’s still available days later, and I want to get into why. What’s changed? Is there still value to be had? Was there ever value? Let’s get into it.

First of all, let’s do the direct comparison. Here’s what you got from the Vegas FIAB last time:

This time, still available for Philadelphia and not shipping till March:

Handily, both were the same price of $270, so we can extrapolate from there. 

The Mystery Booster: Convention Edition is clearly the big draw here. The price went down about $40 as people got their Vegas FIAB and sold the box. These went for around $260 before August; now they are down to $220 or so. That box represents a huge chunk of the value that can be gained from the whole package, and while I respect anyone who wants to resell it, the Mystery draft experience is a great one. 

I doubt that the box prices will have recovered much by March, and frankly, I’d expect the value to take another tumble. Remember that while there are 23 cards in that set currently retailing for $10+, there’s nearly 1700 cards in the set. Lots of people buying, lots of opening, lots of reselling. I wouldn’t be shocked if boxes of MYB were down to $175.

One other thing: they made minor alterations to the set, taking out Rhystic Study but adding in a second Sakashima the Impostor and some others. The full list of changes is near the end here, and the changes were done mainly to distance themselves from artists Wizards has deemed problematic. 

Amazingly, they seem to be out of the promo Sol Ring to give out. This was a giveaway for so many things for so long, and now it’s the Gauntlet Arcane Signet that’s going for just over $20 right now. It’s a cool one, but there’s competition in the Secret Lair (old border!) and the Foil Extended Art and the Warhammer versions and the other Secret Lair…you see what I mean. I’m glad it’s getting traction, but I’m doubtful that it’ll hold $20 for much longer, especially when the FIAB arrive in March.

I’m also going to call the Commander decks a wash. They chose what they had extras of, and those are the ones that didn’t have a lot of valuable reprints. The decks aren’t bad, they just don’t come with a Black Market Connections or anything like that. 

I think Look At The Kitties is a defensible set of choices, with some really cute art. The first cat-themed Secret Lair is reselling for a pretty penny indeed, and we are getting a decent selection of cards. None are super-pricey, but solid choices and good art mean that it should appreciate over time like all of the non-land Secret Lairs have. 

Atraxa Sleeves and a matching playmat, when that’s the most popular commander of the last few years…it’s really an inspired choice. There’s a boatload of those players out there, and it’s just going to take a few hundred who are willing to pay a premium to have the sleeves and the playmat match up. I think this will be a surprisingly profitable item, topping off a valuable package and worth the buy, especially if you’ve got someone you can gift the Commander decks to.

The biggest thing is the quantity out there. I fully expect that Wizards is selling a lot more of these FIAB than they did for Vegas. It’s unlikely that they are going to sell too many at this price and without the cache of the big return to gathering, but there’s no doubt that there will not be scarce quantities of this package out there. 

I’m not going to be buying a bunch of these for spec purposes, but if I had an Atraxa deck, I’d 100% be buying one for my personal use and selling off the other pieces.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Here we are, everyone, another installment of ‘How rare is rarer than mythic rare’ and I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised by some of these numbers. Things aren’t as insanely rare as they used to be, and yet they are still going to require a lot of packs to get what we want.

This set has TWO subsets of cards we care about: the Transformers subset and the Retro Artifact set. Each of those sets has chase versions too! There’s a lot to keep track of, but luckily, I’ve gotten good at parsing small details and figuring out some approximate drop rates for these cards.

So let’s dive into the odds and the math and the likelihood of getting the cards you want!

This set, everything we care about is in the Collector Boosters, as opposed to other sets where Set Boosters might have some of what we want. So all of these figures are calculated for those boosters and those alone.

It’s also worth mentioning that these are estimates based on best information. These aren’t for sure, locked in figures. The nature of statistics and probability means that some people will have better results and some will have worse results. 

One of the core principles I use in calculating these drop rates is the ratio of cards in a Draft booster: 10 commons, 3 uncommons, 1 rare or .5 of a mythic rare. Since we don’t get half of a card, I double that, so for every mythic rare, there’s 2 rares, 6 uncommons, and 20 commons.

There’s a slot dedicated to the nonfoil Commander and Jumpstart cards from this set. To be specific, that is the Commander cards plus the Jumpstart cards for a total of 26 rares, 6 mythics.

Not a lot to see here, as there will be plenty of EA nonfoils going around. No foils to be had at all for these, unless something weird comes out like they’ve done in past sets.

In the Transformers slot, it gets interesting. First of all, the subset has the name BOT, which is so on point it hurts. Secondly, we’re told that all of them are mythic, so all are the same relative rarity. We’re outright told that 12% of this slot is Shattered Glass, the flipped-mirror universe where Deceptions are good and Autobots bad. We’re also told that foil SG cards are about as rare as Neon copies of Hidetsugu, Devouring Chaos. Happily, I have that math handy from that article, so I know that it’s all about .6%, or 1 in 151 to get any Shattered Glass foil.

The article also indicates that nonfoil Shattered Glass is about as common as foil Generation 1 cards, so we get a rough breakdown of 75% nonfoil G1 (6 of 8 packs), 12.5% nonfoil Shattered Glass (1 in 8), 12% foil G1 (again, about 1 in 8) and finally foil Shattered Glass, which will be the 1 in 151 or so that we got from Hidetsugu, less than 1% chance. 

Then we get to the last slot in the pack, which has: Foil Extended Art, Foil Borderless cards, Foil Alternate-Art Planeswalkers, and foil Rare and Mythic Retro or Schematic artifacts. That’s a lot, and let’s look at the breakdown for how many of each type there are in that slot.

Doubling the rares gets us to a pool of 299 cards, and that’s where we can get a table that matches.

This is one of the lowest drop rates for rares we’ve had in a while, and might well lead to things like the borderless foil painlands being more expensive than expected. 

When it comes to the Artifact Archive, there’s a lot to unpack. Keep in mind that the schematic and the retro have equal numbers or each rarity. Schematic Helm of the Host is just as rare as Retro Helm of the Host. I don’t expect the prices to be equal, but the rarity is the same. 

The serialized copies of each of the 63 cards is a tricky problem to solve. Since there’s 500 of each, there’s exactly 31,500 serialized cards in existence. Several have been opened already! To calculate your odds of getting one of these, we’d need to know how many booster packs/boxes exist. We don’t have that exact number, so some estimations are in order.

We know Wizards’ annual reported revenue, and from that we can figure how big or little the revenue is from this particular piece of their pie. Can’t be too small, or too big. We also know that the distributor price (Wizards sells boxes for this price, we get retail with a markup) was around $135.

So here’s a table, with the percent chance and how many boosters, boxes, and income Wizards gets if that’s the number of boosters out there.

My estimate is that you’re at a .7% or .8% chance to open a serialized card, or around one every two cases. If we get new information, I’ll update this post.

What’s especially odd is that the rarity doesn’t matter. There’s the same number of serialized uncommon Bone Saw as there is the rare Ashnod’s Altar and the mythic Aetherflux Reservoir. I don’t think the prices will be the same at all, but the rarity and the drop rate are equal.

It’s also worth mentioning that for a price comparison, the Ampersand promos given to Premium WPN stores were in a similar vein. There were around 3,000-5,000 sets of those distributed, and now we’re getting 500 of each. These artifacts are some of the most popular Commander cards around, and I won’t be shocked to see them fetch truly premium prices. Again, rarity isn’t relevant. Burnished Hart and Swiftfoot Boots have higher EDHREC numbers than any of the mythics in this subset, and they are uncommon in this grouping. 

Does that mean they will be more expensive than mythic serialized cards? My instincts say no. This is the first crack at serialized cards for Wizards, and I am pretty sure that all of them are going to be quite expensive.

So let’s summarize things with a list of chase cards, and then how they compare with other Collector Booster sets.

And finally, let’s do a comparison of other Collector Booster sets, and see where we land with this set:

As always, if you notice things I’ve messed up or overlooked, hop into our ProTrader Discord and tell me what errors I made, so that I can fix them quickly. I hope these odds help improve your buying decisions, and good luck with the packs you open!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

The Brothers’ War has been completely previewed, and this looks like another awesome set, with themes and toys for Commander and Constructed alike. Next week I’ll be able to tell you the exact math for the most chase cards, but this week I just want to focus on some of the mythics and their preorder prices.

For each of these cards, I’m giving you the preorder price, but I want to be clear that 99% of preorder prices are a mistake and you should avoid them. For every Ledger Shredder that went from super cheap to super pricey, there’s fifty cards that start super high and drop like a rock. Even the ones that I think will eventually be good, I’m hesitant to order now because of the odds that it drops.

Arcane Proxy – $7 – I think that people are too in love with the Snapcaster comparisons. Snapcaster is a busted card, far too good and flexible. Proxy (what a time for a card with the name Proxy to come along!) allows you to cast the spell without paying, and that’s a fair trade to give up Flash for. 

The interaction I’m most excited for is putting this into the Crashing Footfalls decks in Modern. Arcane Proxy allows you to cast spells with no mana cost, rebuying the Footfalls and importantly, won’t interfere with the Cascade chain that got you the first casting. That’s an exciting interaction, but not one that will go too far. Standard is going to be pretty sick of this card, paying 1UU for a 2/1 and getting a second bite at a removal spell or some card advantage. I don’t think the price is going to rise right away, but instead drop down at first, then start climbing slowly. The Esper decks all over Worlds would definitely play 1-2 of these.

Awaken the Woods – $30 – This price is far too high, though you can name your busted combo with it. Clearly everything Landfall wants this card, big mana decks are happy to cast this at X = 4 just to start jamming ten-drops, and this card invariably warps future discussion over lands all entering the battlefield at once. That said, I adore this, I have at least two Commander decks that will want copies, but there’s no way on earth I’m paying $30 per copy. We are going to be patient on this card, let its price head downward, and then grab a stack in about six months when it’ll be at or near its lowest point. 

To be clear, I think this is a Commander/Cube card all the way. Standard has too many counterspells to make this work the risk, and other formats are just going to laugh.

Cityscape Leveler – $7

The first of many Powerstone payoffs we’re going to see in the next year or so, this card can get you value even if it’s countered or killed. Sure, eight mana to destroy a permanent and give a Powerstone is not a great deal, but you’re going to unearth it for value. I both hate and appreciate that this says ‘nonland’ permanent. I don’t want this blowing up lands when reanimation tricks have this attacking super early, but I also don’t like missing with such a trigger.

It’s starting out at a not-expensive price, and I fully expect it to go lower. Eight mana cards are rarely worth a lot of money.

Phyrexian Fleshgorger – $20

With the prevalence of Infernal Grasp, killing this and being down 5 life is an intimidating thought. I like that this ward ability scales if you change its power, but the three-mana version is just about the perfect aggro card: wins races, needs more than one answer, and is good both early and late. This is another fun reanimation target, as well as something that Powerstones jump for. 

This would need to be a playset in a whole lot of Standard decks to keep a $20 price tag, though. I expect it’ll have a decent price, just not this high.

Portal to Phyrexia – $17

I can’t wait to see the decks playing this alongside Goblin Engineer and Daretti, Scrap Savant. There’s all sorts of good payoffs for artifacts, but this will catch you up like nothing else. Not only does it immediately even the playing field when you cheat it back into play, it’ll steal their stuff and reanimate it all for you. If you can consistently cycle artifacts back and forth from the graveyard to play, this is among the best things you can be doing. 

Still, the pool of decks that can use this is a small one. Yes, it’s a Powerstone payoff but those decks aren’t going to want a ton of these either. I will be shocked if this stays over $10.

Gix, Yawgmoth Praetor – $17 – Super overpriced right now, but has good applications in an aggressive deck, as this effect snowballs quickly. One drop, two drop, this, trade one and draw a card…you’re going to get ahead quickly if they don’t have a good answer.

This is an adorable effect in Commander too, actively encouraging your tablemates to attack each other and get some cards. The seven-mana ability takes a lot to trigger but it’s nice to have such an effect if you find you’ve been drawing too many cards. 

All told, this is a good card, but not $17 good. More like $5-$10 good, tops.

Clay Champion – $5 – this might be the most underpriced choice right now, as Mono-Green is in a good position for Standard and a very good position in Pioneer. This is an 8/8 for 4 mana if you spend GGGG, a feat only really possible in the Forest-only decks. If you’re activating Castle Garenbrig, this will be an 11/11 using that six mana.

The white mana ability is interesting but not going to move the needle. I think this has a chance to go up, because the mono-green decks will play a LOT of this card, and that might be enough to bump it up a few dollars.

Teferi, Temporal Pilgrim – $15 – What I like about this card is how well it plays with a blue deck’s philosophy. It’s quite simple to imagine a blue deck that plays a couple of these, just to churn out a token per turn. Every card drawn gets you a counter, and with your natural draw, that means one spell per cycle for an extra card. The tokens get counters, which get out of hand FAST if you’ve ever played with Lorescale Coatl and the like. 

I like this version of Teferi a lot, but at five mana he’ll need some help in Standard and I’m not sure this is good enough for most superfriends decks. I expect his price to tumble by at least half.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

We’re a week or two away from having all the cards in Brothers’ War previewed, and when that happens I can break down some exact percentages for the main set and Artifact Archive. There’s a lot of things going on with that set of cards and I am eager to pick some of them up, especially in double-rainbow-numbered-editions.

However, before we can get all those previews, there’s a few other buying opportunities here that are worth highlighting. Some are staples worth getting at a low price, some are speculative based on future happenings, and of course, there’s awesome things in an awesome frame.

I’ve highlighted the cheapest and most expensive versions for these cards, as there’s a lot of options to choose from. For each of these, I’ll be clear about the edition I think you should pick up, but you’re free to evaluate as you will. I’ve also put down the EDHREC inclusion rate, and that data comes with a caveat: It’s data that comes from the most online group, the most connected group. It doesn’t do a good job showing the desires of kitchen table players, and it has a bias towards cards that were in a preconstructed deck. It’s useful data, but we need to be aware of its limitations.

Teferi’s Protection ($20 for cheapest version, $53 for the most expensive, 141k EDHREC) – It’s an impressive card that gets around just about all the bad things that can happen in Commander, and it’s at its cheapest ever:

The Mystical Archive printing in 2021 hit the price hard, but the card recovered within a year. Double Masters 2022 is knocking it down again, and it’s possible that the cheapest versions trickle down another dollar or two. There’s a lot of 2×2 I’m waiting on, to see if we’re really at the bottom.

Given the choices available, I’m fond of the Japanese-language alternate art from the Archive, both because it looks cool and it’s quite rare. Foils are $50 or so, but that’s down from the $100 they started out at. I don’t know if I’d be able to pick from the many versions that are $18-$20 right now and say ‘This will be the one that grows fastest!’ Instead, I want to have a premium version and be patient. We’re definitely at max supply, and this is an incredibly popular card. Proceed accordingly.

Demonic Tutor ($35 to several grand for the Alpha, 250k on EDHREC) – The tutor that all tutors are measured against, this is another card that was ascending pretty high but got hit with a Mystical Archive printing. 

It feels silly to list the EDHREC rank of this card, because if you have one, you’re playing it. At two mana, this gets you exactly the card you need and likely playing it that turn. Don’t be too proud to use it for the mana you need! 

I would advocate you buy these cheap UMA copies now. The Mystical Archive copies are also worth considering, as they are unique, but this has never been terribly common, even though its first printing was uncommon and in UMA it was rare. Get what you need and move on. If a shiny version is your preference, the Box Topper foils for nearly $100 is your best intersection of value and style, but you do what works for you.

Goldspan Dragon ($20 to $45, 52k decks) – Standard rotation hit this surprisingly hard for a card that has such a good EDHREC number and is part of such a popular tribe. 

While I am an avowed Dragon aficionado, I am mainly interested in this card for the Treasure shenanigans. We’re entering an artifact set, and Treasures are an evergreen mechanic now. Goldie probably won’t get a Standard reprint, though a Commander/Secret Lair reprint seems likely. 

I would prefer to be in on the Foil Extended Art copies, as those are rarer and more resistant to movement when a new copy gets printed. Plus, it’s a Dragon and that tribe keeps getting all sorts of goodies.

Toski, Bearer of Secrets ($9 to $12, 66k decks) – There wasn’t a big period of time for Toski to be cheap, but the window was there for $5 for a long time. We’re now pushing $10 on the cheapest copies, but Showcase foils are not much more and that’s where I want to be. This card does almost everything you want in a green deck, either in the 99 or as the commander. Toski was never really a Standard card, but has been a great Commander card from day one. It’s going to keep being a good card, and a hard cut from any deck that uses creatures to attack. Remember that in a go-wide deck, you can draw several cards in one Toski attack.

Forsaken Monument ($5 to $12, 21k decks) – This is a card I bought a dozen of in FEA at $20, because I moved too soon, but I might buy more at $12 or so. It’s very good with artifact creatures, and with the new emphasis on Powerstone tokens, this will have a chance to do some extremely broken things. Mythics in FEA always have my attention, and this is no exception. 

Retro Foil Fetchlands (Wide range, S-Tier staple in EDH) – Modern Horizons 2 was opened for a long time, and I think we’ve hit bottom on the retro frame in traditional foil. The etched foils are even cheaper, but the retro in traditional foil has the strongest nostalgia vibes for me. I think everyone should stock up on cheap fetchlands right now, but for spec purposes, I’m going to get a couple of the blue fetches in retro frame, traditional foil. Those have the best potential for growth, though they won’t hit the Expedition prices.

Oracle of Mul Daya ($7 to $76, 49k decks) – Not just a Commander staple but a Cube staple as well, this card’s numbers are low because there just weren’t enough copies out there for the longest time. Now we’ve got a reprint, and plenty of volume, and get while the getting is good, people. I love all the versions, frankly, except for the way overpriced original foils. Get yourself some Borderless foils for your decks, a couple extra for future you, and thank me later. 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.