All posts by Cliff Daigle

I am a father, teacher, cuber and EDH fanatic. My joy is in Casual and Limited formats, though I dip a toe into Constructed when I find something fun to play. I play less than I want to and more than my schedule should really allow. I can easily be reached on Twitter @WordOfCommander. Try out my Busted Uncommons cube at http://www.cubetutor.com/viewcube/76330
Casual Fridays

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: Will These Prices Hold?

Welcome back from the Red Menace! It’s an aggro world, and we’re all just living in it.

The Pro Tour win by Ramunap Red (albeit with a very big oopsie in the quarterfinals by his opponent) meant that several cards have spiked and spiked hard and some of them we saw coming.

The time for picking up cards for a big profit has passed, and it remains to be seen how many of these cards are going to keep their new price levels. This week, I want to look at how such gainers have done after previous PT success, and see how that bodes for the cards which has seen such impressive gains in value.

Before I get into the cards that spiked this weekend, I want to step backwards a couple of Pro Tours and see what patterns might exist.

Pro Tour Amonkhet had Zombies rising (couldn’t help myself) and Aetherworks Marvel all over the place, along with a healthy dose of Mardu Vehicles. Fatal Push cemented its status as a $7 uncommon, though its playability in Eternal formats is a big contributor there. There weren’t a lot of Amonkhet cards in these top decks. Lord of the Accursed was a four-of uncommon, and Dread Wanderer went from $2 up to $6 and has trailed back down to $2 now.

Pro Tour Aether Revolt had six Mardu Vehicles decks in the top 8. Notably, Heart of Kiran jumped to above $20 and has since been trickling downwards in price ever so slowly, as other decks have become more popular. It’s now $11 or so, and having only put two copies of the top 16 at PT Amonkhet, it didn’t bump up even a little.

Pro Tour Kaladesh has eight different decks listed in the top 8, and this was before the triple bannings. Torrential Gearhulk was in two decks, and it’s seeing enough play to stay in the $15-$20 range, but the graph here is truly fascinating:


I wrote the dates on the graph because I’ve never seen a card spike this many times in just a year. Will it keep doing so? Will it go up with each of the four Pro Tours left in its Standard lifespan? There’s even a minor bump for this recent PT, even though Gearhulk decks weren’t really a factor.

It’s also the outlier. Most cards that jump up in price at a big tournament have prices go back down, whether fast like the Gearhulk does, or slow, like Liliana, the Last Hope has.

Now that history has given us some clues, let’s look at the specific cards that have done well this past week and where they will likely be going:

Ramunap Ruins (Now $1.25, was $0.25, foils now $6): I can buy that this is a $1.50-$2 uncommon, as a four-of in the most popular deck. I do not understand this foil price at all. That level of foil multiplier is usually indicative of wild demand in casual or Eternal formats, and it’s just not popular. Commander doesn’t want this. Shivan Gorge will do half the damage but not lose you lands (and a specific land type at that). The Gitrog Monster decks can’t play this. Are people speculating that it’ll be good enough in Modern? I find that unlikely as hell. Please, enlighten me as to why this is such a pricey foil, and if you have a foil, I’d get rid of it ASAP.

I expect the nonfoils will end up at about $1, but if this deck spikes an event around Christmas, when the set is no longer being opened, it’ll hit $2 again.

Abrade (Now $3, was $0.75, foils $10): Again, I like this to stay as a pricey uncommon, even with the large amount of Game Day versions about to enter circulation, and if you think $10 is too much for a foil uncommon, the multiplier is with normal tolerances. I do love the flexibility in Cubes and Commander, as these are both effects you want access to. I think this set of prices will stay consistent for some time, and keep in mind that this will rotate out of Standard at the same time as the Vehicles block, so there will always be a good level of demand for the card.

Falkenrath Gorger (Now $2.50, was $0.50, foils $3.50): The price graph here is going to be a sad one. People are racing to the bottom on this card, as fast as they can. TCG has seven available for under $1, and a very large number under $2. It’s about to rotate, people have dug this out of bulk boxes, and it’ll crash back at bulk by rotation.

Hazoret the Fervent (Now $16, was $6, foils $25): I don’t agree with Travis that the time to sell is already past. Yes, there was a moment where it listed for $20, but if you got in at $7 or less you’re still making a fine profit. It’s in the process of trickling downward, yes, but if you have your copies, don’t panic-list them at $10 each or something. If Ixalan offers us one or two good cheap red creatures the deck will remain a strong part of the metagame. Gorger is rotating, as is Village Messenger, but I don’t think this goes below $12. I doubt we’re going to see the bouncing price of Torrential Gearhulk, but right now people are planning for the deck. We will have a period where the meta adjusts, and people stop playing it, and then the red menace comes back to prey on all the slower decks.

If the price goes below $10 again, I’ll have to think about picking more up. It’s got a limited time to be good, but we’ve already seen what it’s capable of.
 

Cliff is an avid watcher of just the draft part of the Pro Tour, but the games themselves are far less enthralling. He has been playing this game since late 1994, and making money off of it for far less time. You can find his insights on Twitter @wordofcommander or here on MTGPrice every Friday morning.

Casual Fridays

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: The Early Rounds of PT HOU

The Pro Tour is eight rounds old when this goes up, and I freely admit that I’m not young enough to stay up all night to see all five rounds of Standard.

Being on PST, I do have an advantage of a few hours, though, and there’s some early cards to note from the Standard portion of the Pro Tour. So let’s get to it!

I’m not going to go round-by-round, but this is an amalgamation of three rounds of Standard and the deck techs, discussion, and decks on camera.

 

Glorybringer is a card that everyone will have to be accounting for during the next year, and there is no good, easy answer. Harnessed Lighting needs help, Grasp of Darkness is tough on the mana, it’s too big for Fatal Push, etc. Five bucks is too low for a card seeing this much play, and I’d be picking up a few to unload in six months.

Abrade is everywhere. Artifacts are not safe, and it seems like $2 is about right, especially with a Game Day promo still to come. It’s not going to be Fatal Push, but it promises to be a very commonly played card while it’s legal, and I wouldn’t be too shocked if it crept up to $3 by New Year’s.

Kari Zev, Skyship Raider is fifty cents and seeing play as a two or three-of, though the red decks are favoring haste. With a Pirate set coming up, she seems like a real sleeper and a low cost to get in on.

Imminent Doom on a deck tech! The pilot, Valentin Mackl, was 0-5 when the deck tech went up, which just seems cruel. It’s an intriguing card, but I want to see someone do well with it. Streamers are likely going to try to make it good, and that bump is unlikely to hold. I would not be buying this card, even though it’s only a quarter and it’s open-ended and oh god I’m talking myself into it. It’s just so much work! See if you can get it at six for a dollar, as bulk mythics are just long-term holds.

Kozilek’s Return is very well placed right now, being able to be cast after your opponent has played their hasty creature, and at only $5, it’s intriguing. It’s rotating out in three months, though some of these on-camera blowouts could make it rise up some. I think this would be the third spike for the card, which might be a record.

Hazoret the Fervent is looking good on camera too, and it is being played in high numbers in the most popular deck. This could be the biggest gainer on the weekend. I wouldn’t be shocked if it hit $10 or $15 by Monday, and if the deck does well, $20 or more is in play. 

Hour of Devastation wasn’t featured early but has been popping up in the featured matches and has sometimes been great and sometimes been depressingly weak. There’s a lot of camera time left to go, but I’m content to hold at $8 currently. I’m hoping for a deck with the full set to do well, though leaving behind Vehicles is a real drawback in some matchups.

Hour of Promise is the backbone of the ramp decks, and at only $2, it’s doing a lot of work. First one gets your Deserts, the second one gets some Shrine of the Forsaken Gods and now you’re in Ulamog territory. World Breaker is going to hit $5 by the end of the weekend, but again, it’s about to rotate out and you’d have to turn that card around fast.

It’s worth noting that Ramunap Ruins, a four-of in the most popular deck, can be had dirt cheap. Playsets can be had on eBay and TCG for a buck, and if you like a cheap spec, there it is. It’s lightly in the ramp decks too, but if the red decks keep getting there, this might be another premium uncommon out of the set.

Zombies is the #2 deck by numbers, and while I can’t recommend Dark Salvation at $2, I do like Liliana’s Mastery at under $2 and Ammit Eternal at about $2. The Ammit is just so undercosted! The undead are really performing well when shown on camera, and while the deck loses at lot at rotation, being a top-tier deck for three months is going to cause some rising prices.

Just enough Rhonas the Indomitable in assorted decks to keep the price high, but not more than a two-of, so I think that price will stay under $20.

Looking at decklists, there’s more than a few running a couple of Blossoming Defense, and considering the upside in Infect decks, I’m interested if I can get copies in the seventy-five cents range. TCG doesn’t have many in that price range, but you can find a few on eBay. Jensen’s Electrostatic Pummeler deck is a blast to watch, and a bold choice with so much Abrade in the room.

Finally, I want to point out a couple of cards that I haven’t seen in lists yet, or on camera, that deserve some thought.

Hour of Revelation needs some attention. Vehicles and Planeswalkers are common, and this just gets rid of all your problems, unless that counts creaturelands. The prevalence of haste threats makes this card less appealing, but I would love to have a couple copies in the sideboard. Getting in at $1.50 is interesting, as it’ll take just one good result on camera to double or more.

Another sweeper that isn’t seeing play is Yahenni’s Expertise. This card hasn’t had a chance to shine yet, and not answering Glorybringer is a real drawback, but it will decimate a lot of decks on turn four. It’s around a dollar right now, and it would have to see widespread inclusion for it to climb to $3-$4 and hold that price. It’s a small-set rare, but it was the foil Game Day card, so there’s a few extras out there.

Cliff has been playing Magic since the halcyon days of Revised and the packs with Islands as rares. His glory right now is Cubing, but the love of his life, format-wise, will always be MoJoSto over on Magic Online. Find his articles every Friday here on MTGPrice, or on Twitter @WordOfCommander.

Casual Fridays

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: Week One of HOU

We’ve had one weekend of Hour of Devastation being legal for Standard, and there are some cards at surprising prices. I want to go over a few with you today and see what these trajectories tell us.

Something to note that’s a bit different about this set, as opposed to most other sets that have come out in the past few years: This set was regarded to be a little clunky when it was first revealed to the world, a bit underpowered as compared to what was already legal for us to play in Standard.

This led to some impressively low pre-order prices, and starting out that low has put more cards than usual on an upward trajectory.

On to the biggest gainer of the set so far, a card no one predicted would be selling for $4-$5 on eBay a week after release…

Fraying Sanity (up to $5 now, from a low of about $1 in prerelease season): So far, I’m super wrong about this card. People can’t get enough of it right now! It’s astounding, even though I know full well how popular mill cards are with the casual set. Yes, it’s an auto-win with Traumatize.  I was heavily dismissive of the card, I sold one for fifty cents on Cardsphere on prerelease weekend, and I told you to dump it at $2 a week ago after it had gone up from $1.

I cannot find records of a mill deck getting there in an event or even on a stream so far. I can see no shortage of people posting decks that might be good with it, and Startled Awake is riding a big bump because people want to mill 26 cards, but the card hasn’t gotten there yet. This level of interest is pretty unique, and I don’t know who is buying this at $4. Every other card with a similar focus got cheap and stayed there for a while, though I honestly don’t recall how cheap Glimpse the Unthinkable got to. It was 2005, so it couldn’t have been too pricey?

There are going to be lots and lots and lots of this card out there. It’s not going to keep this price. I reserve the right to be shocked, but buylists are taking this at $3 right now and I don’t even know what to say.

Are we witnessing mass speculation at work? Are we seeing what happens when literally every FNM player decides to play the same wonky deck? I don’t know. I was comfortable getting my fifty cents, and I’d be comfortable getting $3 on a buylist right now.

Champion of Wits (up to $3 from about $0.75): This is what an on-camera spike looks like. The card fits very well into Emerge, and is showing a healthy bump due to helping two different players make the top 8 last weekend. So far it’s only shown up in this one style of deck, but it might keep this price. If there’s anything going on with graveyards in the next couple sets, this could spike again, though likely not above $5 or $6, even in a year.

Crested Sunmare (now at $5, up from $3.50): Yes, it’s fun to do silly things with this card, and there will always be people trying to make something like this work, but I’m going to blame this bump on the streaming effect and move on.

Solemnity (Still about $5): I’m actually very impressed at the price stability of this card. We haven’t had a Modern event where it makes waves yet, but it’s another combo piece that’s hard to deal with. The preorder price has proven sticky, and that’s a relatively rare feat.

Hour of Devastation (up to $8.50 now): I think that not only does this keep Crested Sunmare decks in check, it’s going to define the Standard format quite well. There are very few decks that can take this hit and act like nothing happened, though Vehicles are the card type that can keep on chugging. I still like this to be a $10 card at the release of Ixalan, and tick up from there.

Finally, I want to call your attention to the uncommons that are making a financial splash and are worth snagging for the next few weeks at low prices or from draft chaff.

Supreme Will ($1): UR Control is going to be a good deck for a while, and this is exactly the sort of card that a permission deck loves to have. Normally, if someone leaves up three mana, you’re careful to play around this (or Metallic Rebuke or Cancel) but if you don’t make a play, their counter is now a card selection spell, getting what they need most out of the top four.

Abrade ($1.50): Flexibility is always something a card benefits from, and the heavy foil multiplier on this card indicates that it’s got some legs in the casual community. It was in a lot of the best-performing decks this past weekend, and while it’s going to be the participation promo for Game Day on the first weekend of August, I like this to be one of the most played cards from the set while it’s Standard legal. (Kaladesh and its Vehicles will rotate out along with Hour of Devastation in September 2018.)

Claim // Fame ($2): This is the one that I’m a little less enthused by. Yes, it’s amazing next to Snapcaster Mage, and Death’s Shadow, and on and on, but it’s not going to be a four-of. I’d be surprised if it was more popular than Kolaghan’s Command, a card with even more flexibility. I want to let this one cool off a little bit, let the foils get to the $7 range. Right now people are too eager and that doesn’t appeal to me.

Cliff has been writing about Magic in some format or another for six years now, a terrifying length of time. He has two kids, a full-time job, and an endless sense of humor about the fact that these pieces of cardboard keep being worth money! His goal is always to buy low and sell high, and is an avid user of Cardsphere. Follow him on Twitter @wordofcommander or tune in every Friday here on MTGPrice.

Casual Fridays

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: Price Movement on HOU

6 Comments

Hello and welcome to the new world of super-cheap cards that aren’t worth the cost of packs or boxes!

Well, that was at the beginning of this week, anyway. Not a lot has changed, either, but there are some cards that have changed price in surprising ways over the past few days, and I want to look at what’s happening.

A note: I’m not always sure why a card is moving, as we don’t have any tournament data to look at yet. We have a very small amount of 5-0 results from Magic Online, but the saga of Wizards and data suppression is its own lengthy article.

Still, price movements online and in paper can tell us some things, and I always like a clue on the first weekend.

The Scarab God ($15 now, up from $9 this week): Can we take a minute and reflect on how silly it is that no one bothered to give these Gods names? Is that part of the appeal or something? A testament to the power of the Moriarty-Dragon? It’s irksome to me, but I’m old and a curmudgeon.

The card has crept up about 50% this week probably because it’s a brutal EDH card and it doesn’t take much to have this be a game-defining effect. The ‘each opponent’ clause is pretty darn fantastic, and having a relevant graveyard ability is important in Commander as well. I think this price bump is not here to stay, as people will get their copies and the price will trickle back downwards.

Neheb, the Eternal ($4.50 now, was $2.50 this week): I cannot imagine a world where people are playing this over Glorybringer in Standard. Same mana cost, but one is far more impactful immediately than the other. I suspect this bump is due to the casual market as well, I’ve seen people trading for it at this price, and I’m staying away. Show me the combo in Standard, I know it’s capable of dumb things in Commander.

Razaketh, the Foulblooded ($6 now, was $10 a week ago): First off, the foil multiplier is nearing four on this card, so you can imagine it’s tearing up Commander games. I haven’t seen it in action myself, but it seems pretty degenerate and worst of all, it’s lots of tutoring and can be done at instant speed. I was really in on Griselbrand when it was printed, and that banning took a whole cycle to happen. If Razaketh survives the first banlist update from the EDH Rules Committee, then I’ll be listening, but for now, I’m staying away.

I don’t want to hear about reanimator decks playing this in Modern or Legacy either. The requirement of an additional creature just costs too much when you’re playing this on turn one. Griselbrand gets your seven back immediately.

Bontu’s Last Reckoning ($4.50 now, was $3 last week): Is this worth it? There is not a comparable card to look at, oddly, but I’m cautious. I suspect this is going to be a card that gets more play than we are first expecting…for the first couple of weeks. People are testing this card, and the price is going up. Usually that means it’s going to get played this first weekend, so I’ll be keeping track of events to see if it’s pulling its weight.

Fraying Sanity ($2 now, was less than a buck a week ago): You’ve heard it from a million writers: casual players love their mill cards. The list is long yet not consistent, though. Sure, Consuming Aberration is $2, but Mirko Vosk, Mind Drinker is still $1. I would be dumping Fraying Sanity at $2 right now, in trade or in what you can get in cash.

That’s my plan for right now. I’m expecting this card to drop like a rock, it ought to be fifty cents or less in a month. I don’t think the foils will ever drop below $5, though, and that’s where I would prefer to be. I get it that the effects stack, and the second is quad damage…but I can’t deny this:

Sometime in the next 18 months (this set rotates out in September 2018) there will be a mill deck featured someplace and this card will spike. I would plan on selling into that hype.

Hour of Devastation ($8 now, was $3 a week ago): This is the card that I first thought of. We already have some pretty good UR decks, and now those decks get a sweeper that can even deal with planeswalkers! This is going to make a big impact early and alongside Abrade, makes UR able to deal with the vehicle/walker cards that are usually so resilient to wrath effects.

I think this isn’t done going up. It’s going to break $10, and might even get close to $15 in the early hype. It won’t stay there, as this is too mana-intensive to be a four-of in the decks that want it, I’m expecting it to be a defining card of the format for some time, though. I’ll say that this stabilizes at a solid $10.

Ramunap Excavator (Now $7, was $4): Being the release weekend promo means that there will be more foil copies out there, but this card is just amazing in a format with fetchlands. I’m not sold that it’s Legacy-worthy, but I can see the appeal. Playing this alongside Wasteland is a repeated kick in the teeth. Yes, it’s amazing with Glacial Chasm too.

The thing is, though, I have a hard time believing that all the cards in this set are super-low-priced. Most cards are trending down, as they should, but it’s clear that the Excavator is getting enough value to invite purchases. I just can’t justify buying a promo rare at this price. I would be shocked if it bumped to $10, because it would have to start trending down from there.

The counterpoint is Sylvan Caryatid, a card which had a high points above $15 and is still $2. If the Excavator has legs in the eternal formats, that’s a possible price.  We will have to wait and see what the early adopters do. I won’t be shocked if it’s showing up in the eternal formats, and I won’t be shocked if it sees no play.

Cliff is an avid Cuber and Draft enthusiast. He believes in keeping one, maybe two playmats max and tends to enjoy the side events more than the main attraction at a GP. Ever since getting his first Revised packs in 1994, he’s sold cards for a new transmission, a sweet bed, and even the security deposit when moving into a new place. Find him on Twitter @wordofcommander or Fridays here at MTGPrice.