All posts by Cliff Daigle

I am a father, teacher, cuber and EDH fanatic. My joy is in Casual and Limited formats, though I dip a toe into Constructed when I find something fun to play. I play less than I want to and more than my schedule should really allow. I can easily be reached on Twitter @WordOfCommander. Try out my Busted Uncommons cube at http://www.cubetutor.com/viewcube/76330
Casual Fridays

PROTRADER: Unbanning Speculation

How about this week for bannings and unbannings! Gotta love when changes happen all over the place, in an apparently random way. The end result is important, though, and I think the Felidar ban is good for Standard. Shake it up!

This week, and next, I’m going to look at the currently-banned cards in a couple of formats and see what I’d like to have on hand in case of unbanning. Protean Hulk made some amazing gains when it was unbanned in Commander, and frankly, I’m looking forward to seeing how I can abuse the card in a couple of different decks.

I didn’t see the Hulk coming, but I did have a stockpile of Kokusho, the Evening Star when it got unbanned, and that was a nice play. So let’s start with Commander this week, and see what we can speculate on and what we should not get.

Power Nine: Not coming off the banned list ever, the RC is pretty clear about this. Mana Vault being legal is indeed an inconsistent application of their ‘no fast mana’ rule, but if you can get Power you should do so on general principle.

Chance of unbanning: less than 5%

 

Library of Alexandria: So this card is not legal, while the literally-twice-as-expensive The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale is. I would advocate owning a Library, as it’s got nowhere to go but up. There’s a chance this gets unbanned in Commander, since lots of disgusting things are legal.

Chance of unbanning: 25%

 

Balance: This has been banned for a long long time. If the effect was limited to creatures, it’d likely be unbanned already, but the effect on lands and hand is a very unfair and unfun experience.

Chance of unbanning: 0%

 

Biorhythm: The RC is not big on ‘play this and win’ cards, so I don’t think Biorhythm ever gets banned. I’d like to say something like ‘Green players need to stick it to those creatureless Blue players!!’ but the truth is that G/U decks are super strong. Jerks.

Chance of unbanning: 0%

 

Braids, Cabal Minion: This would be okay except that mana acceleration is so very good, and it’s easy to get this out early and lock the game down. If you’re locking everyone else down, go ahead and giggle, but everyone else hopes you die of paper cuts.

Chance of unbanning: 0%

 

Coalition Victory: I feel like this should be legal, and considering the hoops that have to be jumped through, I think this has real potential to be unbanned at some point. It is a rare from a small third set (plus the Timeshifted version) and people would immediately jump on the hype. I would advocate picking some up, considering that regulars are fifty cents and foils are under $3. I get that you’re thinking ‘But it wins the game on the spot!’ and my reply would be “Look at this Reddit post and tell me Protean Hulk isn’t just as bad?”

Chance of unbanning: 65%

 

Channel: Fast mana is not good, especially with Eldrazi running around. I don’t think this is ever unbanned.

Chance of unbanning: 0%

 

Emrakul, the Aeons Torn: This was a sore point for a long time in the EDH community, and the banning felt inevitable. This wouldn’t get cheated into play much, but it was not terribly hard to build a deck that accelerates well to the spaghetti monster. I think it’s unlikely but possible, and its use in Modern and Legacy already has affected prices.

Chance of unbanning: 10%

 

Erayo, Soratami Ascendant: This prevents people from doing things, and it’s in blue, so you’d likely need three spells to get rid of this. Unfun and noninteractive means it’s probably never coming back. However, it’s already at $9/$24 foil, indicating that there’s a lot of people who like this card.

Chance of unbanning: 5%

 

Fastbond: What makes this card busted is the potential with Crucible of Worlds, paired with Strip Mine and Wasteland. The problem isn’t someone playing three lands on turn one, it’s someone paying a life to destroy a land.

Chance of unbanning: 0%

 

Gifts Ungiven: I always forget this card is banned, but really, it needs to be. It’s super busted, to go find Time Warp, Time Stretch, Relearn, and Call to Mind. I call that the ‘Flipped Table Special’ and that’s before I get into Unburial Rites combos. It’s already at $5-$7 due to Modern and other formats, despite being in two different Modern Masters sets.

Chance of unbanning: 25%

 

Griselbrand: Nope. Sorry. Never. Starting at 40 life and without even a ‘shuffle me from the graveyard’ clause, it’s far too good. I played with it during the short period it was legal, and it’s precisely as busted as you fear.

Chance of unbanning: 0%

 

Karakas: It’s not that the effect is unfair, it’s how free it is being on an untapped land. A lot of Commander decks wouldn’t fold to this, but it’s so easy and free and tremendously effective.

Chance of unbanning: 0%

 

Leovold, Emissary of Trest: I’m aware that this was designed while Tiny Leaders was hot stuff, and either ability would have been fine separately, but these two together are unfun. That said, I think he’s too expensive to spec on right now, even though I don’t think he will be banned forever.

Chance of unbanning: 15%

 

Painter’s Servant: Originally, this was legal and Grindstone was ruled to be too good. The RC decided to switch the cards, and Grindstone is now legal. I highly doubt that this ever gets unbanned, but it’s not a zero-percent chance.

Chance of unbanning: 10%

 

Panoptic Mirror: Cast it. End of the turn, imprint a take turns card. Defend until it’s your turn. Take all the turns. GG. Never ever, sorry.

Chance of unbanning: 0%

 

Primeval Titan: This was a longtime battle to get banned. It’s severely powerful, and fetches up whatever you need, though most often it was Cabal Coffers and Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth. The presence of this card quickly becomes a battle of control and copy effects, or one person gets way far ahead on mana. This isn’t coming off anytime soon, but it’s just good enough in Modern that I wouldn’t mind having a few on hand.

Chance of unbanning: 10%

 

Prophet of Kruphix: Oh, I want this to be unbanned. Please. Please! I’ve got a stack of these that I traded for at $1-$2 each. Infinite turns on one card is too good, though, and this card enables everything in the two best Commander colors.

That being said…I’m glad I already have my stack. This is a ridiculously good card in casual circles, and it’s at a low point in its price history.

Chance of unbanning: 15%

 

Recurring Nightmare: This was ruled to be too good in 2008! That’s nine years of degenerate graveyard interactions. Graveyard hate has gotten much better, and the creatures have gotten far better. I have abused this in Cube and this would be much more likely to be unbanned if returning it to hand weren’t part of the cost! It’s already a $12 card, and is pretty much a Cube staple…and I want to have some of these on hand.

Chance of unbanning:30%

 

Rofellos, Llanowar Emissary: I don’t think he’s as big a problem in the deck as he is when he’s the commander, but he’s busted right in half.

Chance of unbanning: 10%

 

Sway of the Stars: Resetting a Commander game is lame. There’s just no other word for it. The best way to use this is with Jhoira of the Ghitu, and suspend a couple of big things to resolve after this.

Chance of unbanning:5%

 

Sundering Titan: I’m going to let loose a contrarian opinion here: I think this card isn’t terribly unfair. It can only hit lands with basic types, and that skips over a lot of lands that see a lot of Commander play. Yes, it hits basics and duals and shocks, and the battle lands and the new cycling duals, but that’s it, aside from the corner cases. I know that my three-color decks aren’t dependent on those lands, enjoying checklands, manlands, filters, Temples, etc. I think there’s a chance here. It can be had for $5, $20 in pack foil or a $35 Invention. There is room for significant growth.

Chance of unbanning: 75%

 

Sylvan Primordial: So this got banned pretty soon after it came out, and mainly because it destroys lands and then gets you more lands, enabling whatever shenanigans you’re into. You end up with one person having all their Forests out, and no one else has lands in play, once you start flickering or recurring this in some way.

That said…is it really worse than Hulk ending the game on the spot? This is a super-attractive speculation, as you can get this at nearly-bulk prices, and foils are just over $2.

Chance of unbanning: 50%

 

Time Vault: Considering all the ways there are to take infinite turns in Commander, I’m sort of surprised this isn’t unbanned, but the RC is not known for consistency, as previously noted.

Chance of unbanning: 0%

 

Tinker: I feel like artifact decks don’t need the help. I really don’t want Blightsteel to be in play on turn one or two.

Chance of unbanning: 0%

 

Tolarian Academy: This isn’t allowed, but I can play other degenerate and fast artifacts? Again, I wonder if the Hulk gets out of the penalty box, there’s got to be a chance for this, right? It’s at $32 now and it would jump to at least $100 if unbanned.

Chance of unbanning: 20%

 

Trade Secrets: So the rationale for banning this was when two players decided they wanted to draw all the cards together. That seems more like a failure of the social contract than anything else, but I think this will get re-evaluated eventually. Nearly a bulk rare, only a $3 foil.

Chance of unbanning: 45%

 

Upheaval: I already want to kick Cyclonic Rift to the curb, and this is even worse. I won’t have anything at all in play!

Chance of unbanning: 0%

 

Worldfire: Same as Sway of the Stars above. Just silly.

Chance of unbanning: 0%

 

Yawgmoth’s Bargain: Academy Rector is already super annoying, and this would be neck-and-neck for the best target, alongside Omniscience. This card spiked earlier this year for reasons I can’t seem to find, but it’s on the Reserved List anyway. Having a few on hand would only be prudent.

Chance of unbanning: 15%

Casual Fridays

PROTRADER: Price Targets for Amonkhet

Oh do I love the beginning of a set. Prereleases are among the purest tournaments to me, because I don’t know the tricks, the angles, the basics of what to be afraid of. There’s synergies to explore and so much to experience!

I don’t like picking Standard cards when there’s a banning announcement coming so soon, but there’s already some stuff that I’ve noticed and want to trade for soon.

A couple of caveats: First of all, my standing advice remains good: Trade away everything you open at the prerelease, and trade for anything that isn’t in Amonkhet. There’s going to be a big loss in almost all the prices, and picking the one or two cards that go up from here isn’t worth it. Assume it’s all going to lose value, and trade accordingly.

Second, about the price drops: The value loss is going to be real and big and significant. I’m going to give you my price targets, the value that I’m hoping these fall to before I start picking them up in earnest. Panharmonicon never fell to the dollar rare I was hoping for, but Lifecrafter’s Bestiary is surely there.

I’m going to list the prices that we currently have for these cards, but with this still being in pre-order mode, these prices reflect what stores want to get for them.

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Casual Fridays

Amonkhet Accessories

I love this time of year so very much. We have a new set that we are all drooling over and eagerly brewing with. We are amazed at the cards that are seeing print and we are full of bad predictions about prices. (I’ll get to some of those next week.)

This week, though, I want to look at some cards that I think will have strong potential with the new cards, and hopefully these will gain in value when new decks get played and get some camera time.

Lupine Prototype + Hazoret the Fervent: Is this obvious? Sure. Both of them want the same thing but that’s what we are being pushed to. Embrace it. I don’t think that Noose Constrictor is going to grow in value, though it’s the logical partner for dumping your hand rapidly. Call the Bloodline is another contender, but the Prototype has the best growth potential because it’s a rare you can acquire for very little.

The foils are intriguing, because they are eight times the price of the nonfoil. That indicates to me that either there’s a very high casual demand for the card, or someone is stockpiling foils for future spikes. You can get in on this card for a ridiculously low price, so this is safe even if the combo doesn’t take off.

Anafenza, the Foremost + Rhonas the Indomitable: There’s a surprising number of cards that come pre-loaded with the right amount of power for Rhonas to be active, but this is one of my favorites, given the rise of Abzan in Modern. I’m aware that Anafenza has had some spikes and rises already, but of the cards I want to play with Rhonas, this is a strong one.

An honorable mention has to go to Greenwheel Liberator, as a card that can come down cheap and be big enough for Rhonas. It’s easy to find four-drops that match well with the green god, but early drops are just as important. This is another one that can bump up in price significantly, since it’s under fifty cents currently.

Bloodfury Militant + either of the above: I want to point out that this uncommon is great with both of the above cards. What’s truly special is the lack of sacrifice clause. If you cast this as the last card in your hand, then you’re golden! I want this card to be good, I really do. I’m going to be going after foils fairly aggressively after the first week or two that the set is out, because the value is real. Do I think it’s going to revolutionize a format? Not at all, but this is a lot of card and a lot of potential.

White Sun’s Zenith + Regal Caracal: This is a casual combo, but what a combo it is. The Zenith is a solid card, if a touch expensive to get started, but in Cat decks, it’s awesome and might get cast more than once. We have surprisingly few Cat lords, and giving a boost to size and lifelink at the same time is going to make a lot of Cat cards better.

The Zenith is a very cheap and very good card, and seeing it pick up in value seems like a reasonable thing. Get the card in the range of a quarter or thirty cents, and watch it hit a dollar or more. The foils already have a 10x multiplier, and I would be surprised if there was another foil printing anytime soon. Seeing this foil price double wouldn’t shock me at all.

Black Sun’s Zenith + Nest of Scarabs: Black Sun’s Zenith hasn’t had much of a bump yet even though it got some attention when this card was spoiled. There’s not much better than killing all of their creatures and then getting a swarm of your own, and this is a combo that’s going to have your Commander table both envious and angry.

It’s worth calling out Carnifex Demon and Midnight Banshee as dirt-cheap spec targets that could well spike if Nest of Scarabs becomes a build-around casual card. The Banshee is a true delight to combo together, as the Insect tokens are black and won’t get counters every turn.

Splendid Reclamation + the cycling duals: Yes, this card has already had a spike when these lands were spoiled. It’s not a huge bump, and I think that the card has some room to grow. The graveyard synergies are really strong in this new set, and this is one of the most powerful things you can do if set up properly. I also really like the casual potential of this card, so feel free to stock up.

 

Cliff is a high school teacher, father of two, and newfound Cube enthusiast. While Commander will always be his first love and greatest value engine, long-term foil investments are always going to be his stock-in-trade. He prefers to diversify over a wide range of cards, rather than overload on one, as a box full of Prophet of Kruphix can attest to.

Casual Fridays

PROTRADER: Invocation Predictions, part 2

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Last week, I went over my thoughts on the eventual prices of the new Invocations, and while we are missing the full complement of the Gods, the reprints are known and starting to be presold.

With a week that’s gone by, the preorder market is a little more stable. I’m going to use TCG’s prices, as that’s reflecting what people are currently paying for these cards.

Let’s take a look!

 

Daze – $2 nonfoil, $120 pack foil, $15 Eternal Masters foil, preorder $75: The good news for this card is that when people play this, they want the full playset. No messing around with three or less, and that’s part of why this is so high in price. The bad news is that it’s not good in Commander, and not every Cube wants a copy.

Prediction: My first blush is to say that this drops as low as $50, but it could go lower. Having an old border version to chase puts a definite ceiling on the card, but the price on the EMA foil is indicative that the demand isn’t all there.

 

Diabolic Intent – $19/$65/Preorder $40 – I’ll be honest, it’s tough to find a place where this sees a lot of play. It is powerful, and good in Commander, but that format has a whole lot of tutoring options available. This price is more reflective of the very low supply than the demand profile.

Prediction: I think this is perfect, actually. It’s right between the regular and the foil, the supply stays low, but there just aren’t a lot of people clamoring to have this. It might fall to $35, if it does fall.

 

Divert – $1.50/$20/Preorder $30: I didn’t even know this was a card, to be honest. Sure, it’s a single mana, but this is as conditional as can be. One spell with one target and they don’t have two mana available? It’s seeing a tiny amount of play in Legacy sideboards, but the drawbacks are real.

Prediction: I think this drops even farther, and will struggle to be more expensive than the pack foil. There just aren’t enough people who need this in a deck, and even then, they will only need one or two copies.

 

Entomb – $12-$20 nonfoil/$15-$52 foil/Preorder $50: Now this is a card. Thematically, it fits the block and the setting very well, and it’s played a lot. Reanimator is a strategy that’s tried and true in Legacy, Commander, and Cube, and all of those decks want this card. Ideally as a four-of, but that’s the nature of Commander. The tricky part, though, is that this has been printed in Eternal Masters and a Judge Foil and the Premium Deck Series. There’s a lot of copies out there already.

Prediction: I think this will fall, but not by too much. $35 is the point at which I’d want to be moving in, but I’m not certain about the demand it’ll face.

 

Force of Will – $80/$330/$465/Preorder $300:  Yep, we are now entering our third additional printing of this card. Original, judge foil, gorgeous Eternal Masters, and now this promo version. The good news is that this is one of the most prevalent cards in Legacy, some might say the defining card. The bad news is that this might have the farthest to fall.

Prediction: I think this will be the case study on how desirable the new frames are. The players who don’t want this one will sell out immediately, and others will snap it up. What I don’t see is people opening this and saying, “Oh sweet! I need three more to get started in Legacy!” I expect this card to lose $50 or more in value, bottoming out in the $250 range.

 

Loyal Retainers – $52 nonfoil/$22 foil/Preorder $33: This card has a tiny supply but not that many decks want to play it. Aluren likes it, and there are strategies that pop up using it, but the demand just isn’t very high.

Prediction: I think this stays in the $30 range for quite a while.

 

Maelstrom Pulse – $18/$34/Preorder: $45: This is a card that’s been a mythic and a reprint and a promo, but it’s lcimbed back into the nearly-$20 range because it’s seeing good amounts of play in Modern, and is a worthy card in almost any casual format. Universal answers are always good, but ones that have the potential to clean up a bunch of tokens or both Tarmogoyfs as going to stay in demand.

Prediction: It sees enough play and the supply is small enough that this price doesn’t drop far, if at all.

 

Mind Twist – $2 up to $400+ for Alpha versions/no foil printings/Preorder: $60: A haymaker of a card, and one that’s still banned in Legacy. With fast mana, this is a big swing of card advantage, though it can’t solve problems in play. This hasn’t been printed since 4th edition, and so this is the only foil version that can be found.

Prediction: I think being the only foil version bodes well for the card, but the severe lack of formats to play it in does not. If you’re into speculating, this might be a tasty target, as an unbanning in Legacy would cause a spike to double its current price, or maybe more. As it stands, though, I think this drops a little to the $50 range.

 

Pact of Negation – $37/$53/Preorder: $80: This card has a foil multiplier of less than two, indicating that people want it, and having the foil version isn’t important. Casual demand is not driving the foil price up in relation to the nonfoil, and that’s extremely relevant here. Pact sees a lot of Modern play, generally as a way to protect your combo on the turn you’re going to win.

Prediction: Given the prices already in play, this should fall by at least $20, and I wouldn’t be shocked to have it land in the $45 range.

 

Spell Pierce – $1/$6-$30/Preorder: $60: Before being in Modern Masters 2017, this was one of the more impressive foil multipliers out there. Spell Pierce sees a fair amount of Modern and Legacy play, and isn’t terrible in Cube, though it’s garbage in Commander. Having the Invocation be twice the Zendikar foil is far too high though.

Prediction: A price correction is already underway, frankly. The listed Market Price is $70, but copies are being listed for $55. I would expect this to end up in the $40 range.

 

Stifle – $5/$18-$54/Preorder: $45: There’s a lot of things this card can do, some of them very powerful, but still quite niche. Some Legacy decks use this offensively, mainly targeting fetchland activations, but it’s not Modern legal and I’d have a hard time running this in Commander.

Prediction: Since players have a choice between an old border foil, a Judge foil, and the Conspiracy foil, they are going to have to want this version above all else. It’s possible, but unlikely, and so I think this will drop just a bit, down to $35-$40.

 

Vindicate – $5-$7/$18-$54/Preorder: $45 – The demand for this is high in Commander decks that can run this, and occasionally a Legacy deck will have it…but that’s all. This has been a Judge foil twice, and again, it has an old border foil that’s generally preferable to this new blocky frame.

Prediction: The market is already trending down. Market price is listed as $48, but copies are available at $37 shipped and no one is biting. $30 is where I expect this to stop sliding.

 

Worship – $8/$35/Preorder: $40 – After its original printing, it’s had three core set printings to boost supply, which is good because this sees just enough play in Modern to be worth a few bucks. The foil multipliers are appropriate, even a little high, but I wouldn’t trust this to keep myself alive in Commander for long.

Prediction: It’s under the 7th edition foil and just above the others. I think this is a stable place to be.

 

Wrath of God – $5 for Revised up to $750 for Alpha/$8 FTV up to $120 for 7th Edition foil/Preorder: $55: There are now 23 different versions of this out there, counting the foils. Full-art, FTV, original Beta borders, your choice of artwork. Having so many in circulation means that the demand for this card is going to be very telling, in terms of how many people want the Invocation specifically.

Prediction: The market price is correcting already, and while some sales happened at $55, the undercutting is starting. Copies are available at $45 shipped, and I think $30 is going to be the price by the time Hour of Devastation comes out.