All posts by Derek Madlem

Derek picked up Magic the first time during Ice Age and played through the release of Invasion. During Shards of Alara he returned to the game and has never looked back.

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Going Mad – The Good Guys

May 6, 2015 Derek Madlem 5 Comments

By: Derek Madlem

Last week I might have come across a little hard on the #mtgfinance. Judging by the feedback I received, the zeitgeist was right there with me for most of what I said … and I received A LOT of feedback, more than any article I’ve ever written.

People associate a lot of bad things with #mtgfinance, even the use of the #mtgfinance hashtag has become a punchline to most people. Though to be fair, what hashtag has anyone ever taken seriously? #thanksObama

So now with everyone who tweets about the price of cards being evil we can all just agree that anyone that considers themselves a Magic financier is probably a terrible person right? After all, they’re out there just ripping off orphans, sharking trades from naive single mothers, and stealing Black Lotuses from the elderly using elaborate e-mail scams right?

The Retail Level

In the distant past there was a time when no Standard legal card was ever worth more than $20, it just didn’t happen. When you opened a pack of 4th Edition the best you could hope for was a Shivan Dragon because it was the most valuable card in the set at $20, with Royal Assassin right behind it at $18. Meanwhile, there were no “dollar rares” … even Chaoslace was $3, just go ahead and give that one a read.

Cards were hard to find, there were no internet stores…hell, there wasn’t really even an internet. It was years later when I convinced my mom to order a box of Tempest from an online store … she had to FAX HER CREDIT CARD INFO … things have come a long way since then.

When people began to approach selling cards as a business rather than a hobby, things revolutionized. Most cards got cheaper. As more and more people entered the fray, competition and innovation increased. The Chaoslaces of the world became what they should be – bulk. But some cards crept up in price. I missed the middle years of Magic, I was absent for everything that occurred from Invasion through Time Spiral block, but you know what I saw when I came back to the game?

Cryptic Command – $20
Bitterblossom – $20
Ajani Goldmane – $20

The best rares still didn’t seem to break through that $20 ceiling. But then we were introduced to Mythic Rares and everything was ruined. I mean seriously, it’s a Magic card … who would pay more than $20 for a stupid piece of cardboard?

As it turns out, a lot of people. Around this time there were a lot of people quitting because Magic was “getting too expensive.” At the same time the game was experiencing a Groundswell of new players.

Did these players come out of the woodwork because they were secretly waiting for a more expensive game to play? Obviously not. I’m going to put this next part in bold letters because it’s really important.

Tying up more of a set’s aggregate value in a few cards made running a game store easier.

Game stores are popping up everywhere and one of the main drivers of their success is selling Magic singles. Higher prices on popular cards creates opportunity for entrepreneurs. Think about this for a second: most stores made more profit selling a playset of Goblin Rabblemasters than they did selling a box of M15 … this is the reality of running a modern game store.

You know what provides you with all those tables at your local game store? I’ll give you a hint, it’s not the dollar rares or booster pack sales; it’s Baneslayer Angel and Bonfire of the Damned and Jace, the Mind Sculptor. It’s players like you buying cards like these that are creating a place for you and your friends a place to meet up and battle with Magic cards.

Supply and Supply

In my last article I drummed up the artificial creation of demand for certain cards. You know what else the Magic finance community does for you? They create supply as well. Whaaaaaaaat?

The “scrappers” of the finance community are out there aggressively digging through 5,000 count boxes pulling out the gems you need and they’re selling them by the fist full to online retailers, vendors at events, and local game stores. These people keep prices down by keeping the supply flowing into the hands of people that need the cards. With cards as mundane as Gitaxian Probe already hovering around $3, you can imagine what the price would be if the supply were cut in half.

It’s not just about picking bulk, these guys are combing the local game stores that lack an online presence and buying up staples and putting them back into circulation so that you can find them. They’re out there flipping through the binders and boxes of the most casual of players to pluck out these diamonds in the rough.

They’re going into places like this to find cards, so you don’t have to. Those binder grinders are providing inventory for local game stores and online retailers alike to sell. You have to keep in mind that when a store runs out of Goblin Rabblemasters they can’t just order more from the distributor, they have to buy them second hand.

News Team Assemble!

“You heard it here first, the #mtgfinance crowd is not all bad … full story at 11”

One of the biggest benefits the #mtgfinance community has brought to the people is a dissemination of information. As more and more people provide regular content about the financial workings of the Magic economy, the average reader becomes more educated. While it sucks for the old-school sharks that made a fortune trading with the blissfully ignorant, the bulk of the Magic population is better served by being well-informed.

A genre that may have begun as articles about value trading has evolved into much much more. We have writers bringing over real-world finance lessons and explaining complicated concepts in simple terms. We have weekly reports on what we’re buying and selling to promote transparency.

We’ve got writers “attacking the format” from a variety of different angles – casual, Standard, Modern, eternal formats, Commander, Tiny Leaders, and the list goes on and on. I know that I sure don’t care to learn the worldwide metagame for EDH, I play against the same four or five people…but if I read what others are saying about popular EDH cards, then I have a more informed perspective.

All of these content creators are providing current and trending news on the cards you want and the cards you own. They’re boiling down complex concepts and interactions into 140 characters. They’re publishing 2,000 word manifestos on the inner workings of Tiny Leaders. They’re putting in the work analyzing and interpreting trends so you can focus your free time on what makes Magic so magical – playing the game.

As the volume of finance content created increases, the public becomes more informed and we have fewer people throwing away hundreds of dollars on sure-to-fail preorders. As the general public becomes more informed buyers we’ll see a decrease in those outrageous preorder prices and we’ll more quickly discover the cards that have real motivators for demand.

Most importantly we’ll hear less of that guy at our local game store making bold predictions on mundane cards because his audience will be informed enough to shut him up.

Technology

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w9ERiI1epI4

I agree, I love technology. You know what drives technology and innovation? Money. Take a look at all of the sweet offerings you have at your fingertips because of this whole #mtgfinance thing. Sites like MTGPrice and QuietSpeculation have cobbled together an assortment of tools to make your lives easier.

Buylist automation and collection tracking are just the tip of the iceberg as far as features we have at our disposal for under a few bucks a month.

We have portable access to pricing through apps and there are numerous “fair trade” apps that will make sure that you don’t leave a single penny on the trade table. All of this technology was created because of the #mtgfinance community. You may not think yourself a financier, but if you’ve ever looked up the price of a card then you’re a part of the community as a whole.

Maybe Not So Bad

Magic finance isn’t all about called shots, buyouts, and spec targets, it’s about understanding the underlying principles. We can read articles to find out the “why” instead of just looking up the “what” of a price.

We have access to a variety of resources that all popped up around this little community. Historic pricing data aggregated from dozens of sources? Yeah, we’ve got access to that. Daily gain / loss reports in our e-mail inbox? Yeah, we’ve got access to that. How many of you remember the old days when you had to log into starcitygames.com the night before you went to FNM to look up the prices of all your cards so that you were on point at the trade tables? Now we’ve got access to up to the minute pricing on our phones from a variety of sources.

We’re living in a world with no $3 Chaoslaces, and I have a hard time saying that’s a bad thing. The next time you hear someone mention MTG finance, remember the good things this community does for all of us regardless of our level of participation.

Until next time, you can find me on twitter @GoingMadlem or you can find me at GP Atlantic City working at the Aether Games booth, stop by and say hello.

Going Mad, Uncategorized

Going Mad – The Observer Effect

April 29, 2015 Derek Madlem 23 Comments

By: Derek Madlem

If you haven’t caught on by now, I’m not your typical #MTGFinance guy. I don’t like graphs or pie charts and I don’t look at the daily gain / loss reports that are generated by various sites. I’ll confess that I don’t even read most of what my compatriots have written outside of Twitter. I often wonder how I ended up writing a weekly column dedicated to Magic finance when I take such an adversarial stance against the concept in general.

The Good Fight

But now I’m on the inside and I like to tell myself that I’m fighting the good fight … dismantling this Diabolic Machine from the inside.You can see me there (sans beard) getting ready to thrust my sword into the evil gears that turn continuously powering this machine of destruction.

Don’t get me wrong, some of what we write about is useful. The basic economics put in Magic terms is hugely beneficial for people’s understandings of card prices and the how and why of their movement. Understanding supply, demand, and price elasticity goes a long way into understanding how price spikes work. This is great stuff to know.

The finance community has come along way from the weekly articles where Medina taught us different ways to convince a stranger that their cards were worth less than his. But we still do a lot of things that I question.

The Observer Effect

The observer effect is a scientific principle that basically says you can’t measure something without effecting the results of that measurement.

For example, a mercury thermometer can’t take your temperature without absorbing some of the heat your body produces, thus altering your body’s temperature. Another example would be Jane Goodall studying chimpanzees in their natural habitat … you know what doesn’t occur naturally in their habitat? Jane Goodalls. By merely being there to observe, she altered the behavior of those she was observing.

While sometimes the effect of observation is going to be on the impossibly low end of the spectrum, like taking the temperature of the ocean. Other times it’s going to have a direct impact on the results, like you’d see in your psychologists office.

Where am I going with this and does it have to do with Magic cards?

One of things you’ll see us Magic financiers do is send out Tweets like this one. We’ll suggest a card publicly because we’re an altruistic bunch and our only interest is to help others. We’re just thinking of the greater good and want everyone to make money. It’s our little way of paying our followers back for making us into the proto-gods that we’ve become in this cottage industry.*

*this paragraph contains copious amounts of sarcasm

Now first I have to admit that I pick Nick for this because we’ve had this debate a number of times and I’ve determined through repeated observations in the wild that he is an absolute monster and most who know him will back this up. He’s also (usually) a good sport when it comes to this sort of dissenting discourse.

Nick, whether intentionally or unintentionally, is having an impact on the demand for Hero of Iroas simply by talking about Hero of Iroas.

Hypothesis: by making a public observation of a card’s value, we’re affecting the price of that card.

The Morality of Intent

This is where things get murky for me, and where the debate has gone off the rails for everyone that I’ve ever attempted to have it with.

Why are we tweeting out or writing about this information? For some of us, it’s what we get paid to do. Providing you with insights on card value is what we’re getting paid to do, it’s why we’re here at all.

For others, it’s about building a brand … I don’t know what exactly that brand is selling, but branding is important you know!

Others still just want to be right, in public. We want that “I listened to this guy and made $100, you should listen to him too” endorsement. We want that credibility and to be considered an expert in our chosen field.

Ultimately it’s a performance, a magic trick we perform so that we can revel in the applause. It’s not enough to simply buy some cards and then tell people how much money we made buying those cards, we have to put on the show. And like any good magician, the audience is manipulated into seeing what the performer wants.

“Whoa whoa whoa, that’s sounding kind of accusatory”
-concerned reader somewhere

The Bandwagon

One of the most noticeable effects we’ve seen the last couple of years is the bandwagon effect in #mtgfinance. It starts with a card being mentioned, then the price starts to move, and then the next thing you know the silent masses buy out the card and relist it at ridiculous prices. But what happens when the buyout isn’t complete? The price comes crashing back down to reality because Bob’s Card Shack is still selling Bösium Strip for $3.

The reality of the bandwagon is that the more people that jump on, the more effective it is. If I invest in some cards and then convince you to invest in those same cards, I’ve created a ripple. If I convince you and 1,000 other people to invest in those cards, that ripple becomes something more.

So what’s the difference between one guy buying out a 1,000 copies of a card and 50 people buying 20 copies each? When one guy relists his cards to sell at a higher price he’s just that crazy guy on TCG that sells things for way too much, but when 50 people relist at higher prices … it just might stick.

The Defense

I’ve asked numerous people why they tweet out “hot tips” if they aren’t trying to get more people to buy in and they’ve given me a variety of answers. Let’s look at a few of those ideas.

“I really think they’re a good investment” – if buying three was a good investment, why not buy six? Why not buy twelve? If you are 100% confident in an investment, why not keep your mouth shut and buy all available copies? Don’t have enough to buy all of them? Why not keep quiet and buy some copies now and go back for the rest when you can? After all, you’re going to make some serious bank right?

If you’re not 100% certain it’s a good investment, how sure are you? Should you be recommending people buy in on a card that you’re only 60% sure of? Are you trying to turn a 60% into a 70 or 80%? Who are you trying to convince that your target is a good spec? Yourself or the general public?

“I’m already going to make enough money off this spec” – Wut?

The idea that you can make “enough money” off of a spec target that you’re buying only to make money is kind of ridiculous.

“I don’t really think my tweet will have an impact” – then why are you tweeting about it? This is akin to the argument about mana weaving before shuffling your deck, either it does something and you’re technically cheating or it does nothing and you’re wasting your time.

Truth in Advertising

When I tweet about a card that I think is a good buy, it’s because I’m not 100% certain (I’m rarely more than 99% sure of anything). If I was ever 100% certain about a spec target, I would silently buy out the entire internet.

I want you to buy in too. I know that the more people who know/realize/believe a card is a good buy the more likely it is to become a good buy. The more people on the bandwagon, the more profitable it gets.

I want to have credibility. I want to be famous. I want to be an authority on Magic finance. I want people to come to me with opportunities to work for them, I want a large network that provides me more of these opportunities. I want to see my phone lighting up with praise and testimonials.

I want to be honest. I want to be the change I want to see in the world. I want more people to be aware and honest about the things the Magic finance community does. If for no other reason than to avoid being implicated in a global pricing conspiracy orchestrated by a shadowy card Illuminati.

Observation Effect

This is where I restate my premise for dramatic effect and summarize the things I’ve said in a slightly different way.

Making observations on card prices absolutely has an effect on card prices. You know why the price of price of a Revised edition Ironclaw Orcs hasn’t really changed in twenty years? Because nobody cares. As soon as we start caring about a card and making others care about a card, we have an impact on it.

That impact varies from person to person. I could write about a card every week for a month and it would likely have less impact than Chas Andres or Gerry Thompson writing about it once. Some people are starting avalanches while others only have the clout to check the temperature of the ocean, but both are impacting the things they observe.

Let me make one thing clear – I’m not accusing or condemning anyone other than Becvar. If this article causes my peers to think before they speak and my readers to think before they act then I’ll have accomplished a lot.

Whether we choose to acknowledge, deny, or embrace it; all of our observations are impacting the cards we observe. Act accordingly.

For more hot card tips you can find me on Twitter: @GoingMadlem

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Going Mad, Modern Masters

Going Mad – The Horizon

April 22, 2015 Derek Madlem 6 Comments

In Magic finance, there’s always the next thing. Up-to-the-minute pricing, smart phones, Twitter, and daily articles are all things in Magic that have given us access to a knowledge base that would have made the Magic financier of yesteryear a fortune.

Before smartphones permeated local shops, we could gain an edge by watching prices go up on SCG and take advantage of the analog lag time for that new information to reach the stores. Now we just log onto MTGStocks every morning and check out the interests page to find out every card that’s moved more than two percent.

These days, we’re forced to look to the future to gain an edge. We evaluate cards in a vacuum. We test cards to evaluate them in context. We predict what cards will do if X,Y, or Z are true in a given format … but at best, most of what we do is make educated guesses based on historical trends.

Modern Masters 2015

Modern Masters 2015 is just over a month away and the speculation at the treasures inside is already rampant. We’re mere days away from spoilers—there’s just another week or so of articles featuring Mark Rosewater and friends patting themselves on the back for the resounding success of Dragons of Tarkir before we get to see the contents.

But the fix is in.

I’ll go ahead and block quote that for dramatic effect:

“But the fix is in.”

–Derek Madlem, 2015

On a level playing field where everyone has access to the same information, the guy with access to hidden information reaps the greatest rewards.

Khans of Tarkir

But first, let’s go back in time to summer 2014. A friend of mine told me, “Hey, a friend of mine knows a guy that works at Wizards and he said that the Onslaught fetches are getting reprinted in Khans of Tarkir.”

I didn’t really think much of it, as I bought in on my playset of Onslaught fetches at the $15 mark years ago, so I could absorb any price crash without taking a loss … and then other friends told me that they knew a guy who heard from a reliable source that fetches were getting reprinted. I took a look at the card values and saw that Polluted Delta was over $100 at the time so I decided to “short sell” my Onslaught fetches, keeping only the copies I had in my Commander decks, and left the funds in limbo in case I had to rebuy.

Obviously, I did not have to rebuy.

Holding Pattern

At this point, you should already be in a holding pattern with your Modern staples. Now is not the time to be buying Tarmogoyfs or Dark Confidants, or anything expensive for your Modern Deck, for that matter.

Most of you know not to be making any big moves right now, but that doesn’t mean you can’t still move out of vulnerable positions if the opportunity presents itself.

The Fix is In

Just like before, a guy that knows a friend of an uncle of the gal that works out with someone that is married to a guy at the factory that has friends at Wizards has heard some stuff and that information has come to me through multiple channels. If there’s any guarantee in life, it’s that as soon as you swear someone to secrecy, that person will tell at least one person as long as they promise not to tell anyone.

Kozilek, Butcher of Truth
Ulamog, the Inifinite Gyre
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn (already confirmed by Wizards)
Karn Liberated (already confirmed by Wizards)
Tarmogoyf (duh)
Mox Opal
Noble Hierarch
Cryptic Command
Kiki-Jiki, the Mirror Breaker
Dark Confidant

Wink-wink, nudge-nudge, say no more. Well, maybe a little bit more: it’s not like any of these cards are a surprise to anyone … except maybe Kiki-Jiki, not sure what that guy’s doing here.

The Rising Tide

There’s another phenomena associated with Modern Masters that I want to talk about—the rising tide. As the saying goes, a rising tide floats all boats.

A few months after the first Modern Masters release, we saw a sudden surge in price for many of Magic‘s most expensive cards. Dual lands, Power 9, and other Legacy staples all surged upward in price in the winter of 2014. Many theorists think there is a direct correlation.

What Does That Even Mean?

Glad you asked. So with the first iteration of Modern Masters, players were essentially able to spend $7 to get a pack of cards that had a high likelihood of being worth significantly more than $7. Other players had the opportunity to buy sealed product by the box or case at or below retail from unwitting shop owners. Months later, many players and collectors were flush with”new money” from these gold-stuffed boosters and stockpiles of appreciating sealed product.

Then the trade-ins began. As a retailer you notice when your customers are flush with cash, whether that be actual cash or virtual dollars like we see in the value of Magic cards. When you have more and more customers trading their virtual dollars in for your high-end inventory, you adjust that price upwards. The mountains of trade inventory that was being thrown at dealers from the release of Modern Masters and the infinite wealth contained in Return to Ravnica caused a groundswell for high-end card prices.

Or maybe it was just a coincidence.

I know that at the time I plopped down a mountain of trade stuff for a sweet Mox Sapphire at a pretty reasonable price and did not wait long for it to appreciate substantially in value.

Even at $20 or more a pack, you still see players throwing money at packs of Modern Masters for a chance at hitting that $200 Tarmogoyf. Most of us have seen these savages… and most of us know someone that hit it big opening a ‘Goyf or two among their winnings. What did they do with their new-found wealth?

Dual lands have settled back down a bit—they’re still up significantly from the time of the Modern Masters release, but they’ve cooled a bit as the pressure from all that “new money” being spent combined with a slight humbling of Legacy at the SCG Open series.

Strategy

So what’s your strategy going forward?

First of all, you shouldn’t be buying any Modern staples until the spoilers for Modern Masters 2015 come out. Is everything you need for your deck going to be in it? Unlikely. Is every rare in the set going to be worth the big bucks? Unlikely. But you can virtually count on some of the cards you need showing up and experiencing a subsequent price drop.

If you’re able to “deleverage your position” on any cards that you are certain will be reprinted, now’s your last chance. I wouldn’t recommend trading all your expensive cards to your best friend and laughing when they get reprinted, but there are still people that “just want to finish the deck” and don’t really care if a reprint is coming. Besides, we don’t know what artwork is going to come with the reprinted cards and some people just prefer the first editions, so don’t feel guilty. Keep in mind that no information other than what has been publicly spoiled by Wizards is 100 percent.

Be ready to buy the cards that don’t get reprinted. There are already rumors circulating that Serum Visions is being skipped over in this printing, a common that is already seeing significant play and floating around $8. Cards like this will jump in price almost immediately if they dodge a reprint because that very risk is keeping a number of these cards’ prices in check. Once that risk is gone, people are going to take action.

For those that are trying to complete their Modern decks, there’s a good chance that many of the cards you need will plummet in price with a reprinting. For every card price that takes a brief hit and recovers like Tarmogoyf, there’s going to be a Keiga, the Tide Star that drops 40 percent and never regains an inch.

If you’re trying to complete your Modern deck, be ready to trade with a lot of people. Because the retail of these packs is starting at $9.99, the packs are likely going to be bought in smaller numbers by more people. Drafts will be upwards of $35 instead of the $25 we saw last time. Psychologically, it’s a lot easier for a player to lose $50 on drafts than it is $70, so expect the more casual players to draft this just a single time or not at all.

Be ready to watch many of your other Modern, Legacy, and even Vintage staples see some renewed growth. Once the risk of immediate reprint is removed and combined with an influx of players that all have parts of Modern decks, we’re sure to see a few new players at the weekly Modern events. Players that already have everything they need from Modern will push this wealth towards something bigger. Maybe that’s Legacy … maybe it’s the last piece of power … maybe it’s a big dumb foil for their Commander deck. If you are sitting on the cards that people are going to desire, bide your time. Being the first seller is often great, but being the last seller can often yield far greater rewards.

Going Mad, Uncategorized

Going Mad – Hold Your Horses There, Kids

April 15, 2015 Derek Madlem 13 Comments

We had an exciting weekend of Pro Tour coverage, with many of us following the coverage live, or at least tuning into the expanded chatter that social media brings to our fingertips.

Many of us acted on what we saw in coverage and what we heard through our preferred social media channels. Some of us probably even received multiple emails telling us all the hottest cards of Pro Tour Dragons of Tarkir.

Every time a card that hadn’t already spiked appeared on screen, a flurry of activity ensued. I know that I immediately rounded out a playset of Den Protectors on Friday when I tuned into multiple rounds highlighting the card.

WE HAVE TO BUY SPECS OR WE’LL DIE
–Average financiers

And now plenty of people are the proud owners of way too many Den Protectors—congrats, guys, you won! After all, nothing could possibly go wrong at this point, right?

The card more than doubled in value, so all these buyers essentially doubled their money in three days. You’ve gotten all those copies you bought in the mail already, right?

Top 8

Zero Den Protectors… but that doesn’t mean it’s not a good card, right? I bet we’ll see a lot of them in good Standard decks that people who didn’t make the top eight played, right?

8-2 to 9-1

Seven Den Protectors, but I mean, come on, right? Winning eight rounds of Standard at the Pro Tour is hard. It has the best players in the world, after all.

7-3 to 7-0-2

Two. Yes, the word “two” is a complete sentence, so get over it, grammar boy [Editor’s note: I think he means me…]. A total of two Den Protectors showed up in one list that performed 7-3 in the Standard portion of the Pro Tour.

53 Problems

So taking a look at the 56 best-performing decks in the Standard portion of the Pro Tour, only three of them included Den Protector, a fact that can’t be ignored unless CTRL+F is somehow malfunctioning in my browser… in which case, we’ll just carry on as though everything I’m saying is still factual.

When you’re looking for a rare to speculate heavily on, picking the card that appeared in less than six percent of the successful decks at a tournament is probably not where you want to be.

But the good news is that all of the folks that bought these up should get most of them in the mail around the same time the price crashes back down to the price they paid. Sorry, guys!

re·gent

1. One who rules during the minority, absence, or disability of a monarch.

2. One acting as a ruler or governor.

Yeah, that sounds about right. Thunderbreak Regent was never meant to be the king of the format, but in the absence of a true ruler, Thunderbreak does the job. Also, did you see how F***ING SWEET that promo looks? For the first time in years, I’m going to take a real deck to Magic Game Day. Here’s some MTG finance advice for you:

1. Learn to play Magic.
2. Top eight Magic Game Day.
3. Profit!

Notice how step two is filled in here?

If you take a look at how Thunderbreak fared at the Pro Tour, you’re going to see some significantly different results. A total of forty copies showed up in the top-performing Standard lists across ten decks, a little over 17 percent of the field.

While Thunderbreak didn’t show up as much as Siege Rhino (14 decks), it’s probably a safe bet that there are significantly fewer Thunderbreak Regents in the world than there are Rhinos… and it also turns out that dragons have waaaaaaay more casual appeal than rhinos, unless you happen to be in the ivory trade (or whatever rhino horns are actually made out of).

So what does this mean? Thunderbreak is going to continue to be popular, thanks largely in part to its amazing little sidekick Draconic Roar. I still think this card has a little more room to go, probably another couple dollars after we see it tearing up an SCG open or two over the next couple of weeks, and there’s a pretty good lifespan in front of it if either Magic Origins or Battle for Zendikar feature a five-drop playable dragon to replace Stormbreath.

Analog Lag

One of the biggest pitfalls of Magic speculating is the idea that everything is a quick flip and a quick double up. This is the finance equivalent of playing roulette and putting a stack of chips on black, repeatedly. Sure, the first time you hit, you’ve doubled your money (never mind that this poorly thought out metaphor doesn’t take into account the physical shipping of cardboard thousands of miles ).

Nobody can deny the appeal of buying in a ton of copies of cheap rares at $2 a piece and “selling” them for $4, because maybe making $2 on a $2 card feels cooler than making $3 on a $7 card, (shout-out to Dragonlord Silumgar). But high liquidity is hard to achieve in paper cards and one of the biggest risks to these types of spec targets is the “analog lag” we see in the time it takes orders to be picked, packed, and shipped. The lucky ones had their orders shipped out on Friday, but I’m sure that some sellers didn’t get them into the delivery pipeline until Monday.

The Good News

There is good news, I promise. And by “good news” I mean “there’s still hope” that Den Protectors see an uptick in play over the coming months as more cards round out the archetypes

When I tuned into coverage on Friday, I saw a ton of sick plays with Protector on camera, so I added a couple copies to my PucaTrade wants list to fill out a playset. After waiting ten minutes and seeing no trades confirmed, I added two foil copies and two prerelease copies as well, figuring that I would take whatever editions sent first and remove the rest… then I fell asleep on the couch and woke up to find that I was to be the proud owner of too many copies of this card.

So now I can speak from experience that going too deep on DPs is not where you want to be.

I still have hope that all is not lost: I threw my Den Protectors and Deathmist Raptors into a Sultai Reanimator shell and had an absolute blast taking the deck out on its maiden voyage. Protector is a really sweet creature that allows for so much value to be ground out in the long games … I’m sure we haven’t seen the last of this card.

Completely Unrelated

This weekend, I also had the opportunity to work as a buyer for Nerd Rage Gaming at the SCG States in Indianapolis. Some of the things you notice when looking at binders all weekend for hours at a time are the cards that everyone wants to get rid of, the cards that nobody wants to get rid of, and the cards that nobody even had in their binders to make offers on.

I bought a ton of Monastery Mentors this weekend, even after lowering the buy price. This signals that players just aren’t as excited about this card going forward and there is a good chance it’s going to keep creeping downward over the next couple months.

Another card I bought way too many of was Tasigur, the Golden Fang—I couldn’t offer a number low enough to make people say “no” when it came to selling these guys. There’s a good chance that the supply of this card has reached critical mass and the people that went deep on these have lost confidence in further (short-term) gains.

I saw virtually no Silumgars, Atarkas, or Ojutais over the weekend, which signals that all of these cards are going to remain strong going forward. We sold every copy of Atarka or Ojutai within a few minutes of buying them—both of these were wildly popular all weekend long.

The cards that most surprised me this weekend were Dragon Whisperer and Ojutai Exemplars. I only saw one copy of each of these cards in anyone’s binders over the weekend, which is somewhat puzzling to me. I know Dragon Whisperer definitely has a fan base out there in both the mono-red and the dragon lovers communities, so I could understand that this card was being held onto by someone. But where were the Exemplars? I don’t even have an operating theory on this one outside of coincidence plus variance.

Fetch lands were very liquid all weekend long: we brought them in easily and sold them just as fast. Fetch lands are a good holder of value and people’s willingness to sell them shows that they’re still readily available in trade binders. Multiple people selling me fetches over the weekend commented in one form or another that they’d be easy to replace, so that signals that it might be a while before these see any significant upward pressure.

Until next time, you can find me on Twitter at @GoingMadlem, and I encourage you to check out my article on MythicMTG.com later this week, too. I’ll be going over the most fun Standard brew I’ve played in quite a while.

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