All posts by Jim Casale

Jim is a software developer and an avid blue planeswalker. He spellslings in Orlando, Florida but his old stomping grounds were in New York City. The best way to contact him is through twitter.

Jim Casale

Grinder Finance – Preparing for the Rotation Part 2

March 14, 2016 Jim Casale 10 Comments

Last week I talked about what to look forward to for the future of Standard. Today I’m going to take a look at what to sell (or really, what to look forward to in Modern). Just to remind everyone, there are two sets rotating out when Shadows over Innistrad is released April 8th.

Source http://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mm/metamorphosis

A lot of people get confused because it’s 2 sets in 1 set out and we’re in the last 3 set block. In April, Khans of Tarkir and Fate Reforged will rotate out but not Dragons of Tarkir and Magic Origins. Consequently people pondering whether they should get out of KTK and FRF cards will be unpleasantly disappointed.

As I’ve echoed many times, Standard legal cards will enter their final plummet right after the Pro Tour approximately 6 months before they rotate. Most of these cards have already bottomed out and selling them at this point will not be a winning proposition if you plan to buy them back. This doesn’t probably apply to card like Anafenza, the Foremost and Siege Rhino for most people. It does apply to the best lands ever printed. The allied colored fetch lands have a significant price tag attached to them while very close to rotation.

Many players think they can sell them now an pick them up in a few months after prices have dropped. I’m pretty sure that won’t happen. The best time to pick them up will be between now and the end of May.

They’re the best lands ever printed

While they may not have the same price tag as Scalding Tarn or Misty Rainforest, the fetch lands are the best lands that Wizards of the Coast has ever printed in any format. With only half of them and half of a set of fetchable dual lands, they have created one of the most powerful mana bases in Standard. It’s really hard to knock cards that get played along Black Lotus in Vintage, right? What it boils down to is that there will likely never be lands better than this and as players become more enfranchised they will need to own them.

There is not enough time before you need them again

Many players may not play Modern right now due to the extensive Eldrazi threat but they will soon after Khans of Tarkir rotates. Modern PPTQ season starts July 10th and ends October 6th. This coincides with the release of Eldritch Moon until the unnamed fall set. 3 months is not a long enough time for those cards to truly see any appreciable price declines. We saw price increases in the summer months for Modern cards because of the drive to compete in these abundant local events. If there are any sizable reprints in Eternal Masters (which comes out the month before Eldritch Moon) there could be some panic purchasing of Khans of Tarkir fetches to play in PPTQs the next month. It’s possible we even see the Khans fetches increase in price if there is an announcement of no enemy colored (Zendikar) fetches in Eternal Masters.

Their Modern play is suppressed

The Eldrazi have brought back pain lands from the dead and quietly pushed most of the fetches to the sidelines. I have a feeling once Eldrazi are not the best deck in the room we will see a bit more demand for fetches. Many of those players may already own them but once Modern becomes less Eldrazi dominated we will see a resurgence of decks that play 8 to 12 fetch lands. That being said, we don’t really have good data for the post Splinter Twin ban Modern. Currently 9 of the top 10 creatures played are Eldrazi and the only one that isn’t is Spellskite.

Final Verdict: Buy or Hold

Single Card Analysis

The Monastery Swiftspear is one of the most expensive cards in Khans of Tarkir. Despite being an uncommon, it out performs many of the rares in the set. If you play it in Standard, you will probably eventually want to play it in Modern or Legacy so I’m going to advise you just hang onto your copies. Despite having only ever-green keywords, it will be hard to find a place to reprint it in a Standard legal set due to it’s name. This card will likely see long term gains similar to other lower rarity burn staples (Lava Spike, Rift Bolt, Boros Charm, etc). It not being a common keeps it out of Pauper but that’s unlikely to affect it too much. I think this is going to be a solid $5-8 card in 3-4 years.

Final Verdict: Hold

Ugin, the Spirit Dragon by Raymond Swanland

Ugin, the Spirit Dragon is played in Modern, EDH, and casual circles everywhere. A one-time printing (the supply is so low on the promo it doesn’t really make a dent), Ugin is poised to have tremendous long term growth. He is a lot like Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker in casual appeal but his completely colorless casting cost makes him easy to play in any deck. You can find him for $28 on TCGplayer and he still has a buylist of $20 so at this point I’m not sure it’s worth selling. His historic low was $25 during June of 2015 when he saw almost no competitive play. At this point I’m fine hanging onto them for a few years for him to climb back up. If you’re on the fence, I wouldn’t sell foils or promos unless you needed the money as those have barely budged as the non-foil climbed. The Commander demand for this card drives those prices.

Final Verdict: Hold

Monastery Mentor, like Monastery Swiftspear has a name that makes it a little harder to reprint. The fact that Prowess is a tertiary keyword (source) in white means it will have less opportunity to be reprinted. This card shows up in Legacy and Vintage decks so I feel like it would have already made the jump into Modern if it was a good fit. At $15 I don’t feel like there is a particularly compelling reason to keep them if you don’t already play them. There is definitely an issue with the prevalence of creature removal in Modern that could keep this 2/2 out of the spotlight for a long time.

Final Verdict: Sell

Tasigur, the Golden Fang I think is in a slightly different realm than Siege Rhino. His body is a similar size but you can often play him on the cheap with only 1 color. While his legendary status has relegated him to a 1/2 of in most decks, I think he will be a great long term hold because he is a story character with a problematic keyword to reprint. He also technically has a 3 color commander identity making him harder to print in Commander supplementary products. Tasigur has fallen a bit since he was printed in an event deck. I think this is his price floor for the foreseeable future. I also think foils are the better play if you’re picking him up to hold long term.

Final Verdict: Buy

Everything else I’m going to lump into a “probably unplayable in Modern” so you’re probably fine just selling them. Granted, while the best time was 6 months ago, it’s better late than never. I think this is an important time for players to suck it up and take their pennies on the dollar for cards they won’t play. Otherwise you end up like me with a pile of Sylvan Caryatids and Courser of Kruphix and wonder where it all went wrong.

Jim Casale

Grinder Finance – Preparing for the Rotation

March 7, 2016 Jim Casale 4 Comments

So Shadows over Innistrad Preview Weeks haven’t officially started but we’ve already got some tasty tidbits flowing in from last weekend’s Grands Prix. Aaron Forsythe basically stated that the Eldrazi will be put into a more reasonably place (although not abolished) in April. All Modern fans rejoice in unison!

But let’s talk about Standard. How do I prepare for the upcoming rotation? Analyze the new cards and the leaving cards and make some playability predictions.

Oath of the Gatewatch

Right now with mana being so unreasonably good a lot of cards are being pushed to the sidelines because they’re just not better than playing a 4 color deck. There will probably be a bigger emphasis on two color decks which is a big boon for double-casting cost cards. My Oath of the Gatewatch picks are:

Right now most decks can’t get to turn 6 reasonably but this card is primed to be a house. It has a relevant tribal creature type for Innistrad and with the rotation of a lot of it’s biggest enemies gives Linvala, the Preserver a chance to spread her wings. At under $3 per copy, I can’t see a world where you have much to lose. Linvala also holds a good amount of casual value being a giant mythic angel. I foresee the rotation of Abzan Charm, Crackling Doom, and Murderous Cut as a big reason more expensive threats will become better.

With the rotation of the best lands in the game, our fixing gets a lot less and people will likely need to play a lot more copies of newer duals. With all 3 of these lands comfortably under $3, I think it’s a pretty great pickup now because the best ones will get very expensive very quickly.

This guy I think will be one of the sleepers of the new standard. It has a reasonably priced body with a good defensive ability. It incidentally pumps the creature lands (that are likely to get more popular) while providing some flood insurance. At a few bucks this one may not really move in price but it’s already proven to be solid.

Battle for Zendikar

Sunken Hollow and friends are due for their “first printing” tick up as fetches leave and 2 Sunken Hollow is no longer enough for your blue/black deck. There is no guarantee we get a new or a reprint dual land cycle in Shadows over Innistrad so I would recommend buying into the ones we know are good. They last for another 12 months so spending about $60 to get a playset of all of 5 is an easy investment. The creature lands here are the same as above.

I am still amazed at how cheap this planeswalker is. A standard legal planeswalker that isn’t a joke (you know, like Tibalt, the Fiend-Blooded) is only $6 is a real shame. I could see him tag teaming with Chandra, Flamecaller to form a good barrier against big and little creatures (similar to Jace, Architect of Thought and Tamiyo, the Moon Sage did a few years ago).

Another black mythic that can be played as a 4 of is a paltry $7.50 on TCGPlayer. She has a relevant tribal creature type and is aggressively costed. With it’s brick wall nemesis, Mantis Rider leaving Standard, she is primed to shine.

Dragons of Tarkir and Magic Origins

These sets have less time in Standard but I will focus quickly on some cards that could become format staples for the next 6 months.

These guys have seen a little resurgence lately in the Bant Collected Company deck but you might remember when Deathmist Raptor commanded a premium price tag for mythics. Their abilities have good synergies with self mill (an important theme in the previous Innistrad block) and discard. At $7 I think it’s a good time to get Deathmist Raptor and Den Protector if that’s your jam.

With the rotation of the most powerful gold cards in Standard, these extremely versatile instants will need to pick up more slack. Ojutai’s Command and Kolaghan’s Command synergize well with graveyard strategies which can’t be understated.

Amusingly enough, Ojutai’s Command can return this “thing” people are really excited about. It’s already up to a $12 pre-order on SCG in it’s first day so I have to assume this card is 100% hype. It is a lot of investment for something that at the end of the day can get Reflector Mage‘d.

I want to quickly talk about these two. I wouldn’t advocate buying into them now if you’re not totally sure you’re going to play them. Risen Executioner has already seen a sizable jump from his bulk mythic price after a “good” mythic zombie was spoiled. Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy is very close to closing on the Jace, the Mind Sculptor levels of pricey. I don’t think he will be banned but I also am not sure how much longer he can sustain such enormous prices. Theoretically Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy will hit his peak at Pro Tour Shadows over Innistrad as Standard cards tend to peak approximately 6 months before rotating. Where will he go? I’m not sure but this 7 year old photoshop might be relevant again.

Standard on a Budget

I will take a quick second to discuss some spoilers and probably not the most exciting ones.

These three cards tell me there will probably be a pretty powerful and very budget friendly deck available to newer Standard players. These cards remind me a lot of these few from 15 years ago.

These cards were part of the insanely inexpensive U/G Madness deck. While it’s unlikely to be nearly as competitive (due to the nature of powerful Mythic Rares), it is sufficient to beat down at your local FNM. My suggestion if you’re short some cash is to invest in Smoldering Marsh, Avaricious Dragon, Exquisite Firecraft, Zurgo Bellstriker, and Thunderbreak Regent. There is probably a deck somewhere in there and all of the cards are cheap now.

Jim Casale

Grinder Finance – Not Everything is for You

March 1, 2016 Jim Casale 5 Comments

Man, does it feel like there is a lot of stuff coming out this year? I immediately realized after tons of announcements in a very short period of time, that we’re in for an exceptional year of Magic.

How exceptional?

As of right now, this is this year’s release calendar. This doesn’t include a 2nd duel deck and a From the Vault set [announced to be FTV: Lore]. FTVs usually come out in August so I have no idea where it will be now [Ed note: it still will]. It’s clear based on this release schedule that Wizards of the Coast is trying to release more products that appeal to more niche groups. A lot of players have already realized “not everything is for me” but this summer will have some of the toughest choices for players in a long time.

Eternal Masters

This sets off a 3 month period of back to back set releases. Obviously Wizards wants to lead with this one because it has the highest MSRP. If it sells out (which it probably will) it will be great for their parent company.

Without any kind of spoilers it is hard to tell who this set is really for. If you assume based on it’s name its to support Legacy and Vintage players with some reprints then it makes a lot of sense. The reality of those players is the vast majority of them have already owned their deck and the cards needed for a long time. I think this set is the biggest trap and biggest potential for people to waste money. If your LGS supports a large community of Standard and Modern players (which is most common around the US), then this set will likely not provide a ton of value to those players.

There may be some overlap cards that are good in both Eternal formats and Modern (ie Cavern of Souls, Chalice of the Void, Tarmogoyf, Cursecatcher), it likely won’t include very many in the interest of including format staples that are generally outside of Modern (Wasteland, Force of Will, Ancient Tomb, Cabal Therapy, etc). The reality of the reserve list is even if you buy a case of Eternal Masters you’re probably no closer to making a Legacy or Vintage deck than you are just spending that money on a Modern Burn deck.

Leading with the set is obviously a play by Wizards to try to get as much of your impulse spending money as possible. It will be hard for people to resist buying booster packs that could contain a Foil Force of Will, which will assuredly be a few hundred dollars.

Eldritch Moon

I am calling it now. This set will have the most expensive new cards all year. This set will not sell nearly well enough to keep the best cards in Standard low enough. It’s being sandwiched between two presumably exceptional draft formats. Oh yeah, 3 draftable sets in a row, which one do you think people will skip? Has Wizards solved the second set by jamming two sets worth of playables into it? Is Oath of the Gatewatch setting the standard for small sets of the future? There are a lot of questions but there is also some precedents we can look to.

Show of hands, how many people bought a ton of Magic Origins? No? Why not? Did you perhaps by too much Modern Masters 2015? I have a feeling this same problem will happen again. Shadows over Innistrad and Eldritch Moon will occupy the same slots as Dragons of Tarkir and Magic Origins did last year. Did you know a box of Dragons of Tarkir has the highest EV of any set in Standard right now? Magic Origins is only a few dollars behind Khans of Tarkir and Fate Reforged booster boxes which can contain the most powerful lands in the game. The reason DTK and ORI are so expensive is because those two sets are the bun that surrounded the Modern Masters 2015 Hamburger. Their short draft time has lead to supply problems with some of the most popular cards in the set.

If Eldritch Moon is another set of similar quality to Born of the Gods then we might not have a lot to worry about. On the other hand, if we get another Oath of the Gatewatch then we will have some really expensive cards. If you play a lot of Standard this will be the best set to invest your money in. I can’t see a world where the player base opens enough of this set to satisfy competitive players.

Conspiracy: Take the Crown

I’ll start out by saying I’m the most surprised by this set coming out this year. I don’t know how Wizards got the resources to test 3 different draft formats all for release on the same summer but more power to them. Due to the fact that this is a draft heavy format I don’t expect a ton of valuable cards to come out of it. It won’t be used to hold any Legacy or Vintage style reprints (since those will help sell Eternal Masters). It probably won’t contain a lot of reprints from Conspiracy because the set is only 221 cards. With that in mind, Conspiracy 1 only had 210 cards but without a bigger breakdown of the number of uncommons, rares, and mythics we won’t know where the extra cards went. What I will expect from this set is very expensive foils and Commander cards.

My short list of the Commander style of cards that can probably be in Conspiracy:

What I don’t expect is actual the actual legendary creature printings in foil because they have been doing those as Judge foils.

The point of all this

Be careful this summer. There are a lot of Magic sets being released this summer, a lot more than usual. Make sure you realize which sets are for you and spend your money appropriately. Really take a hard look at what you’re buying because if you end up needing stuff from one of the other sets it will be very expensive.

Jim Casale

Grinder Finance – Weathering the Eldrazi Winter with Standard

February 23, 2016 Jim Casale 10 Comments

cardart_OGW_World-Breaker — World Breaker by Jaime Jones

Yeah I don’t know if I agree with that idea. Eldrazi are like a cold front that rolled in for a month or two and will probably roll out when Shadows over Innistrad comes out in April. But in the mean time, you can play this sweet Standard format, right?

Standard hasn’t been a featured format on weekend coverage for 3 weeks so not much head way has been made in the largely Rally dominated format. That being said, there are still plenty of things we can do to prepare for the next format.

Generally at the start of Standard formats (ie right after a new set has come out) decks will add new cards to an already existing archetype until someone comes along with a completely new look at the format. We can take a look at some of the most popular standard decks right now and see which largely survive rotation as those will be ready to go out of the box.

Dead

If you play 4 Color Rally, Mardu Green, Jeskai Black, or any flavor of Abzan your deck will likely not survive in its current form. Without the powerful 3 color cards and Khans of Tarkir fetch lands it’s hard to see any world where they could. If you want to avoid the Eldrazi Winter in Modern I don’t suggest building these decks unless you already largely own the deck. Personally, I decided to play Rally since I owned all of the cards for the deck except for Rally the Ancestors and Grim Haruspex.

On Life Support

Atarka Red is a deck that is losing a lot of its support for “go wide” strategies and its combo kill. Monastery Swiftspear, Hordeling Outburst, Become Immense, Temur Battle Rage, Wild Slash, and their heavy fetch mana base are leaving. While most of those cards are not particularly expensive the deck will need to find a way to replace those token makers or give it a lot of raw power to keep competing. I won’t say the deck is dead but I wouldn’t invest a ton into it expecting it to be a player in the next Standard.

BR Dragons is a deck that while is only two colors has some pretty heavy color requirements. Grasp of Darkness and the double red creatures are not very easy to cast with only 2 lands for fixing. This deck is definitely going to be more alive than Atarka Red due to the raw power of it’s cards but it may be a misstep to play a deck without any of the manlands next Standard.

Bant Collected Company decks might seem like a weird deck to put here. Its heavy reliance on a fetch and battle land mana base to support it’s 3 colors makes me question how easy it will be to cast Deathmist Raptor along side Reflector Mage in April. This deck might morph (no pun intended) into a deck closer to a G/X deck with a light splash. I wouldn’t be surprised if it dropped most of the white spells in favor of being the only Jace and Collected Company deck. With that in mind, I’m not super interested in buying into the Deathmist Raptor part of the deck. If there are very strong graveyard decks it is likely that there will also be very strong graveyard removal cards (which we currently don’t have). On the flip side, if we get more cards like Satyr Wayfinder again, it makes Deathmist Raptor a lot better. I think you should go with your gut in this instance because I’m not sure which is right.

Best Value

cardart_OGW_Ruin-In-Their-Wake — Ruin in their Wake by Jason Felix

Standard in April will have 4 sets from the current Standard. Two of them (Dragons of Tarkir and Magic Origins) will rotate out in September with the release of the unnamed next block. The other two sets (Battle for Zendikar and Oath of the Gatewatch) will survive until the following April. There is one deck that is reasonably good in Standard now that is largely made up of cards from the most recent block.

G/x Eldrazi ramp decks ill be good in some flavor. Maybe they will be Red and play Chandra, Flamecaller and Kozilek’s Return. Maybe they will be green and colorless using Wastes to power out Ruin in their Wake. Either way the bulk of the core of the deck survives for some time. The exception to this, being Nissa’s Pilgrimage and Explosive Vegetation which leave in September. This deck is pretty heavy on Mythic rares which means it could become VERY expensive if it is a clear leader in the next Standard. World Breaker is a very affordable $7 on TCG Player right now and will likely be a key part of anything Eldrazi. If going a little bit bigger is more of your thing, Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger can be found for $19, Oblivion Sowers are under $5, and Kozilek, the Great Distortion is a surprisingly low $7.50. Now that I think about it, I’m almost interested picking up Kozilek at $5 cash purely to hang onto for a few years.

As far as rares, it seems like the base of Sanctum of Ugin and Shrine of the Forsaken Gods will be good for 15 months. I’m finding it hard to figure out a better way to spend $8 than to buy those two sets of lands. The worst case scenario is you lose $8 but we can see from battle lands and manlands (like Shambling Vent) that Battle for Zendikar rare lands can support a higher price tag.

Oath of Nissa is another card that might be poised for a big up tick in play. It’s legendary which means the 2nd one you play puts an enchantment into your graveyard. This is relevant for the new Delirium cards. The other thing it does is make it a lot easier to cast Planeswalkers. Right now mana is really good so that doesn’t matter that much but when our mana gets much worse it may be relevant. All 7 of the Standard legal planeswalkers from Dragons of Tarkir, Battle for Zendikar, and Oath of the Gatewatch have 2 colored mana symbols (with 3 of them being different colors). While I won’t say you should buy out your local shop of Oath of Nissa, I would advise getting a personal playset before they get too expensive.

Final Thoughts

Drana, Liberator of Malakir and Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet are two cards we might see an uptick in use come rotation. They have relevant creature types for Innistrad. Last time we got lords like Stromkirk Captain. I wouldn’t rule anything out for them.
While there are not many Zombies in the last year, Risen Executioner and Sidisi, Undead Vizier are two cards I would look at if there are Zombie tribal themes coming out of Shadows over Innistrad spoilers.
If I was a betting man, I would say we will see Eldrazi Temple on the Modern banned list in April.

MTGPrice Blog

All posts by Jim Casale

Grinder Finance – Preparing for the Rotation Part 2

Grinder Finance – Preparing for the Rotation

Grinder Finance – Not Everything is for You

Grinder Finance – Weathering the Eldrazi Winter with Standard

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