All posts by Jared Yost

Jared is longtime Magic player who has been slinging cardboard since Odyssey block (when creatures came into play). He was introduced to the financial side of Magic during Return to Ravnica block and hasn't looked back since. He is a resident of the VA area located just outside of DC. His favorite MTG formats include Limited, Legacy, and Commander - preferably making creature tokens while playing those formats.

Argument for the Modern Event Deck

By: Jared Yost

Question of Value

From what I’ve been seeing around the internet concerning the Modern event deck, you would think most people would rather go to the dentist than see it printed. I’m going to say this right off the bat – this event deck package is actually pretty decent value.

I know, I must be crazy right? Well, here’s the thing – and I actually didn’t figure this out until I looked it up on the mtgsalvation wiki and confirmed it on Wizard’s website – the thing is that this is not just an event deck. It comes with other things! A spindown life counter, 80 sleeves, and a deck box are also included with this deck. Let’s think about this for a minute.

With all the other event decks you don’t get a package like this. Why? Because those event decks are created for Standard. The people playing Standard already have all of their accessories needed to play that format. New players are entering the market all the time, and they sure aren’t starting with Modern as their format of choice. In a format where $1000+ decks are ruling the Top 8 tables why should they? Standard offers them all they need to get their Magic kick and they are happy just playing that format. The entry point for a decent Standard deck is around $500 if you are going after the singles only and don’t care if they are all in perfectly NM condition and foiled out. Event decks help to fill this gap by providing newer players or even existing players with multiple copies of format staples to make their entrance into Standard that much easier.

What the inclusion of the accessories means is that this event deck was never meant to print $100 bills within a $75 retail package. It was never meant for that Modern player who already has a deck and maybe wanted to branch out into another deck. It was meant for the Modern novice, to understand that Modern exists as a format and that they it doesn’t take much to enter the format if you are willing to play budget versions of decks just like the Standard event decks.

New players to Magic may not even be aware that Modern exists. Wizards really only needs to support Standard. Their support of eternal formats will only work as long as there is a new player already playing Standard and is ready to take the leap to an eternal format. Once they see the event deck and play around with it a bit they will recognize that Modern is a format that is both diverse and rewarding to play. Wizards is just making that connection for the new Standard player by providing them a discount ticket entrance to that format so that they can grab the interest of the few who are willing to make the leap and really jump into the Modern format.

This process has already been started with Modern Masters. Wizards just needed enough time for the set full of reprints to disseminate itself throughout the Magic community in order to drum up more interest in Modern. GP Richmond is a testament to this success story – one of the highest attended constructed events in recent memory, Modern is now on a lot of people’s radars and they are willing to play whatever deck they can get their hands on in order to participate. I know, I was there – plenty of people were playing B/W tokens decks and I even saw one win a GP Trial at the event. Even though it is a “dumb Tier 2 strategy”, many times new arrivals to a format can only afford to play these types of strategies. I know when I first started playing Legacy that the Mono-Red Burn was a very tempting option due to the low barrier to entry. Now that Wizards has solved the problem of the reserved list they can provide event decks for eternal formats, which isn’t something we’ve ever seen before. It is going to take some time for people to understand why Wizards made the choice they did with their first Modern event deck.

From a purely numbers standpoint, I’ve put the entire list including sideboard into the TCGPlayer cart optimizer and this is the approximate value of the deck according to that calcuation (see here for decklist):

image00

Once we add the other parts of the package to the price

– Spindown Life Counter ~$3
– 80 Sleeves ~$6
– Deckbox ~3.50

All told it comes to about $150 of value. Let’s be honest though, the real value of all the pieces of the deck is going to come down once it is released due to an influx of copies entering the market. I’m betting that the actual value will be closer to $100 when everything is said and done.

The cards included might be disappointing for some, but I have a feeling that if Wizards put too many money cards in the deck it would just be sold at absurdly high prices by retailers in order for them to get the most value out of selling the event deck. Wizards didn’t want it to be expensive for Standard players to enter Modern which is why I feel that did not include many of the cards that I predicted they might in a previous article I had written. Honestly, if retailers creating a price barrier is the reason they didn’t include cards like Marsh Flats, Arid Mesa, Fetid Heath, and Auriok Champion in the deck I would wholeheartedly agree with keeping them out even though including them would have lowered their prices by a good margin.

Let’s Do Something About It

There are plenty of ways of improving the deck and not all of them are very costly. Outside of the mana base the rest of the deck can be upgraded rather easily. Just from a quick glance, I would make the following replacements based on this GP Trial Winning List if I were to buy this deck and take to my store’s Modern night.

Maindeck:
– 2 Soul Warden
– 2 Shrine of Loyal Legions
+ 2 Hero of Bladehold
+ 1 Inquisition of Kozilek
+ 1 Path to Exile
Sideboard:
– 2 Ghost Quarter
+ 2 Torpor Orb

Just making these simple replacements makes the deck a lot more consistent and will help your fight against Pod. The manabase may still need some work in order to accommodate the Hero’s but I think that if we’re playing four Spectral Procession main deck anyways it won’t matter in the majority of cases. It may not be the best deck in the room, but when you’re just starting out you need to utilize the tools that are at your disposal.

If you’re playing Standard, you may already have copies of Brimaz, King of Oreskos and Thoughtseize – these are also fine additions to the deck if you can make them fit. The GP Trial deck utilized two Brimaz rather than Tidehollow Scullers (which can be easily removed if your metagame has a lot of U/W/r players) and opted to play four copies of Thoughtseize and only one copy of Inquisition.

The core of the deck is present right out of the box which is good news for the novice Modern player. I’m sure others may argue with my logic but it won’t take much for a Modern beginner to take this deck and start rolling with it. Even if you were to pick up this event deck now, you could start budgeting for the rare lands and even wait for the inevitable reprint of the fetchlands to help supplement this deck. I think it is a good purchase if you’re in the market for a Modern deck because it also allows you get access to things for Commander like Sword of Feast and Famine and Elspeth, Knight-Errant.

I look forward to see what Wizards can do in the future with the Modern event deck products. Like the Commander products that are now yearly I hope that they will make these Modern event decks a yearly, or even biyearly, release in order to get new players that might only be acquainted with Standard interested in the Modern format. Releasing them on a regular basis will also help current Modern players start accumulating a collection so that they can keep building up their Modern card pool over time. I think having this event deck is healthy for the Modern format and for Magic as a whole and I would totally recommend that this deck should be purchased by the target audience for it – Modern rookies.

The State of Legacy

By: Jared Yost

Let’s take a look at the state of Legacy over the recent weeks to see if there is opportunity included in decks that have done well recently.

StarCityGames.com Legacy Open – Knoxville

1. UR Delver
2. Painter
3. Storm
4. Stoneblade
5. UW Miracles
6. Pikula (This is a BWg version of Maverick)
7. Painter
8. Merfolk

Starcitygames Open Series: Cincinnati

1. Death & Taxes
2. Canadian Threshold
3. Reanimator
4. Canadian Threshold
5. Elves
6. Stoneblade
7. Patriot Aggro
8. Sneak Show

Bazaar of Moxen Legacy Main Event (Europe)

1. Loam
2. Shardless BUG
3. Death & Taxes
4. Elves !
5. Death & Taxes
6. UW Miracles
7. UW Miracles
8. UWr Miracles

Starcitygames Open Series: Detroit

1. Canadian Threshold
2. Shardless BUG
3. BUG Threshold
4. Maverick
5. Canadian Threshold
6. True Name BUG
7. UR Delver
8. Storm

Super Legacy – Arcanis 20k (Spain)

1. BUG Aggro / Midrange
2. Dredge
3. Reanimator
4. Sneak Show
5. UW Miracles
6. BUG Aggro / Midrange
7. Omni – Show
8. UW Miracles

Total Decks 40

Distinct Decks 21

image00

Top 3 Decks

UW Miracles

UW Miracles is the most popular control deck in Legacy over the last month and it is putting up the most Top 8 results to back up this popularity. It is doing 33% better than Canadian Threshold, 50% better than Death and Taxes, and 67% to 83% better than the rest of the field.

One card that sticks out to me right away is Counterbalance, the focal point of the deck. Outside of Dark Depths and Zur the Enchanter, Counterbalance is the third most expensive card from Coldsnap sitting at around $9 retail. Sensei’s Divining Top, the other piece to the lockdown, is priced around $28 retail. How can Counterbalance be a $9 card when Top is more than triple its price? Clearly, Counterbalance only has demand in competitive eternal formats but what if one day Wizards decides to unban Top from Modern? Counterbalance could possibly be a real force in Modern in addition to the Legacy play it sees. Even outside this potential unbanning (which is really just a pipe dream at this point) I feel that it being a key piece to the deck means that we should be keeping a close eye on the card.

The next cards that stick out to me are the namesake of the deck, Terminus and Entreat the Angels. Terminus probably has the most growth potential as it clearly is a good sweeper in casual formats like Commander in addition to being included in Miracles lists as three or four copies. Non-foils are currently priced at $4 which I believe is lower than the demand it is seeing. Foils are $25 and even though this is a high entry point I also think foils are a good pick up right now. Terminus has a good chance of seeing another price increase within the next year.

Entreat the Angels has already jumped up in price earlier this year, doubling from around $5.50 retail to its current price of $11 retail. This makes me less hesitant to go after it like I would Terminus, yet the potential for another price increase isn’t out of the question as Avacyn Restored ages like a fine wine.

image03

While this card is not as awesome as Terminus in casual formats and is included in fewer copies than Terminus in UW Miracles (mostly two copies per deck is the norm), I still would keep a close watch on Entreat the Angels for any further movement. Casuals do love angels, so maybe I am even underestimating the casual appeal of the card. Foils are around $40 which aren’t moving downward any time soon – if you want your foil copies get them before they go up even more.

In addition to the key elements of the deck, I think the following cards should be watched closely moving forward:

Jace, the Mind Sculptor – The deck usually includes three copies and this is the best planeswalker ever printed. The FTV hype has died down a bit, and I remember before FTV:20 was released he was around $125 retail. I would expect non-foil WWK copies to go up again to this price and eventually surpass it.

Flooded Strand – Until a reprint, this fetchland could trend up and match Polluted Delta’s price of around $120 retail. It is currently sitting at $95 retail. Not a lot of growth and very risky considering the imminent reprint of fetchlands to make Modern more accessible, however for a short term flip it could be possible to make a profit if Miracles keeps seeing a ton of success.

Vendilion Clique – Along with its popularity in Modern, Clique has a good chance of going up in price during the summer. It may already be too late yet if you haven’t I would suggest picking up your copies of Clique if you want to play UW Miracles. Modern will only continue to drive the demand for this card moving forward.

Rest in Peace – Both foils and non-foils of this card will continue to be in demand as time goes on. Though it is a very reprintable effect, I can still see this going up in time until that reprint happens. Pick up foils if you want a card that will keep its value over many years.

Wear // Tear Foils – These are hovering around $9 right now. Fuse cards are extremely hard to reprint, so getting in on foils of these will be especially good for your portfolio a year or two down the line. Between Modern and Legacy this is a very widely played sideboard card so I foresee it continuing to be in demand. Even non-foils of this card under $1 are a good pickup in my opinion.

Canadian Threshold

A Legacy classic. Canadian Threshold has been around in some form or another in Legacy ever since Nimble Mongoose was printed and Threshold became a mechanic. It has gone through various changes over the years however the backbone of the deck is still the same – an aggro tempo deck that utilizes cheap spells to manipulate the library and out-tempo the opponent.

Unfortunately, since it has been around in Legacy so long there aren’t many financial opportunities within the deck. Many of the cards are commons or uncommons, and their foil prices are already outrageously expensive. Let me give you a breakdown of these common and uncommon foil prices:

Delver of Secrets – $16
Nimble Mongoose – $55
Daze – $124
Lightning Bolt (M11) – $9
Brainstorm (FNM) – $125
Ponder (M12) – $19
Spell Pierce – $47
Spell Snare (MM) – $13
Gitaxian Probe (FNM) – $12
Fire / Ice – $8.50

Not a lot of opportunity there considering Bolt and Ponder both have several printings in foil. Delver of Secrets foils, however, have room to grow. $16 is rather cheap compared to the rest of the foils in the deck and I can only see them getting more valuable as time goes on. Being a double faced card means that it will be harder to reprint than other cards which makes it even more awesome to pick up your foil Delvers sooner rather than later.

Other than foils the deck doesn’t really have anything that stands out to me. The rest of the deck’s components will continue to be affected by the popularity of the Legacy. Legacy has been very popular over the past several years, and I foresee it continuing to be popular for quite a while yet.

Death & Taxes

Death and Taxes has been talked about quite a bit before but there is still opportunity. It is the second most popular aggro deck in Legacy behind UR Delver and has already had a substantial impact on prices in the Legacy format. Cards like Rishadan Port, Karakas, Wasteland, and Stoneforge Mystic have all seen incredible price increases due to the popularity of this deck (Wasteland and Stoneforge also being bolstered by their general utility in Legacy).

The card that sticks out the most to me in this deck is Phyrexian Revoker. Its currently around $3.50 retail and foils are going for about $22. For now, I don’t think there is much opportunity with foil copies though regular copies will most likely see a bump in price soon. It is an important component to the deck that you can cast off of colorless lands and allows the D&T player to shut down many important activated abilities in the format.

Outside of Revoker, I see that Spirit of the Labyrinth has become an important component to the deck at least at the Bazaar of Moxen tournament where two D&T decks placed in the Top 8 running copies. Regular copies aren’t moving in price for a long time, since she is in Standard and not that great in that format, but foils are currently sitting at $15 which is pretty appetizing to me. At Bazaar of Moxen, one D&T player had four Spirits in their deck – a clear sign that it could become a staple in Legacy’s future.

Eventide Flickerwisp foils are $10 each, which is a pretty decent price for a card that is played as usually three copies in the deck. Leonin Arbiter made a showing as a playset in one D&T player’s main deck. In addition to his popularity in Modern Hatebears, for $3 nonfoil and $13 foil it could be a good pick up either way. There were three Serra Avengers in the winning deck at SCG: Cincinnati and at $1.30 retail for M13 copies and only $13 for Time Spiral foils this could also be a juicy pickup.

Other cards to watch from D&T include:

Aether Vial – Since this is already at $25 non-foil and $40 foil, I don’t think there is much room for growth. It does see marginal Modern play in about 7% of the decks yet I’m not sure if this is enough to make it spike during the Summer PTQ season. Picking these up in trade is always good but I would be hesitant to go too deep on them.

image02

Thalia, Guardian of Thraben – I still think Thalia will continue to go up in the long term. She has already doubled in price since January, though without a reprint this year I think she could go higher still. Don’t buy these in cash; I feel that similar to Aether Vial they are good trade targets. Foils are already at $40, which is rather high but I wouldn’t want to be that guy who wished he would have bought the foils one year from now at this time.

The Field Outside the Top 3

In this section, I want to talk about outlier decks that you can see in the bar chart above that put two copies in the past month’s Top 8’s to see if there is potential for a card to see a substantial price increase.

Painter – This deck put two people into the Top 8 of SCG: Knoxville. One version opted for Imperial Recruiter while the other opted for only Goblin Welder and Painter’s Servant and instead went for the Intuition package win.

First off, Imperial Recruiter will have a hard time going up any more in price. The judge foil is already approaching $200 so unless you’re Rich Uncle Pennybags this “investment” is best avoided. Imperial Recruiter will continue to go up in price due to sheer collectability, especially the P3K version, but judge foils are mainly impacted by the popularity of Legacy. Only pick this up if you are seriously considering playing Painter. You won’t make too much money sitting on these for a year and there is the slight chance it could be reprinted in a supplemental product.

On the other hand, Painter’s Servant, Goblin Welder, and Intuition could all go up in price suddenly over the next year. They are sitting at $12, $9, and $35 respectively at retail value. If the non-Imperial Recruiter version of Painter becomes popular due to its recent success than all three of these cards could see a substantial bump. However, I would caution that this is more a pet deck than a really popular deck at this point. It may be hard to offload the cards at the new price if there isn’t a surge in popularity of the deck.

In addition to the card’s mentioned above, Grindstone could also take off if Painter rises in popularity. Its price history has fluctuated and it currently stands at $18. The demand of the card waxes and wanes with the popularity of Painter. With the resurgence of Painter, though, it could see the $25+ highs that it was at two years ago.

image01

One caution against this is that Grindstone is not on the reserved list, so it could be reprinted in a supplementary product at some point. However, Intuition is on the reserved list and is played in more decks.

Shardless BUG – Shardless BUG has been talked about a lot, but I want to mention that the deck’s namesake Shardless Agent is sitting around $15 retail right now. That price could easily go up past $20 if the deck becomes more popular. Liliana of the Veil and Toxic Deluge should be watched for any price changes – I can see these going up more and more as time goes on as they are both great Legacy cards.

Also, don’t forget about Deathrite Shaman and Abrupt Decay – the popularity of these two cards can’t be stated enough. Like Stoneforge Mystic, I feel that once Deathrite and Abrupt Decay rotate out of Standard and become harder to find their price will only continue to creep upwards.

Elves – Elves is another deck where I expect cards in the deck to rise. Glimpse of Nature, Natural Order, Wirewood Symbiote, Heritage Druid, and Green Sun’s Zenith are all on an upward mobility path in regards to price. I’ve already talked about elves before so refer back to my other article to understand why I feel this way.

Community Input

I’ve harped plenty in this article on Legacy staples I’m focusing on – which ones are you focusing on and why? Are you looking to pick up foil or non-foil versions of cards? Let me know in the comments.

People say that Legacy is dying. These prices seem to say otherwise. I’m looking forward to the exciting future that is in store for Legacy, both through cards released in Standard sets and supplementary products. Will Dack Fayden become the next big thing?

Modern Buylist Data Crunching

By: Jared Yost

The other day I was browsing around MTGPrice’s ProTrader Money board. A new addition to this tool is that it now offers buylist prices for all sets that there is data available. This piqued my interest and I decided that I would browse through some of the most recent sets to see who was offering the highest price for individual cards I was looking to buylist. Then I had an idea.

Having buylist data for thousands of cards offers us some insight into trends that appear for the vendors that MTGPrice tracks. By gathering the data and visualizing these trends we can better understand who offers the most for cards and how much we are leaving on the table when deciding to buylist.

I wanted to gather this information for Modern because it will be the most relevant format for all of us going into the summer. When the prices start rising up again and demand for Modern cards goes up, if you have a lot of a particular card and want to sell out buylisting is generally the quickest way to do this. However, as we’ll see sometimes creating eBay or TCGPlayer listings also have their rewards even if it may take longer to sell the item.

What I hope to accomplish by showing you these statistics is first and foremost the average buylist price by vendor. This will show us who on average will give you the most money for buylisting.

Secondly, we’ll want to see which vendor has the most cards listed on their buylist. If you’re going to ship a lot of cards you will want to know which buylist has higher odds of having more cards that you own and want to sell on it.

Thirdly, we’ll want to see the median and mode buylist prices for each vendor. This will give us a better understanding on who pays the most from a different perspective. The higher median price on average for uncommons and commons is important because it will tell us who has a higher range of prices for less valuable pieces of a collection. The mode for each vendor and rarity type will better tell us on average what you can expect to receive for any given rarity from a vendor.

Finally, the most important data point we’ll want to gather is the loss percentage (or money you are leaving on the table) for each buylist. This will indicate how much money you are losing compared to the MTGPrice fair retail value of card.

Data Collection Method

Before I show you the statistics let me tell you how I collected the data. The data set includes all non-foil cards from 8th Edition through Born of the Gods. 10,445 cards total are listed on the buylists. Not all of these will be used for the data analysis. Finally, we’re tracking all rarities from mythic to common.

  • Buylists:
    • Fair – This is the MTGPrice fair retail value of the card. This is what you can expect to buy the card for at a retail site or the value it is worth when trading.
    • eBay – Though this is not a buylist vendor I wanted to include eBay because it is a good indicator of the market price for a card, more so than the fair price. This is one of the best ways to get a high cash value for your card.
    • TCGPlayer – Same as eBay, not a buylist but allows you to get a higher cash value for a card if you’re willing to wait longer to sell it.
    • CFB – Channel Fireball
    • ABU – Alpha Beta Unlimited Games
    • CCGHouse – CCGHouse.com
    • Hotsauce – Hotsauce Games
    • Strikezone – Strikezone.com
  • All cards that were analyzed had a price of at least $0.01 on a buylist. The MTGPrice MoneyBoard buylist prices for some cards are $0 or blanks. I did not include these in the calculations. After taking these out of the calculations, here are the number of cards that were included to calculate the statistics for each buylist:
    • Fair: 10,058
    • eBay: 9,990
    • TCGPlayer: 9,872
    • CFB: 3,207
    • ABU: 3,578
    • CCGHouse: 1,739
    • Hotsauce: 1,488
    • Strikezone: 1,565

Calculations Explained

For the data itself, here is how I calculated each data point:

Average – Average price of a card on a vendor’s buylist. The average was calculated based on all the cards that you could purchase from the buylist. This is the average amount you would receive per card if you were to sell a lot of cards of varying rarities to the vendor.

Total Buying – The dataset of the buylist for the vendor. This is the total number of cards with a value greater than $0 (or not available to buylist) that was listed on the Money board for all cards on the buylist for that vendor.

Sum Total Prices – The sum of each individual card’s price on the buylist. This is useful to know to get an “index fund” view of the vendor to determine how valuable the vendor’s buylist is overall not taking into account averages. It is used in calculating your loss percentage for selling to that buylist.

Median – The mid value of the buylist. This is the price that is halfway between the buylist’s lowest and highest value.

Mode – The most common buylist value. This is the most likely value you will receive per card if selling to the buylist.

% Buying – Based on the total Fair prices available for cards greater than $0, this is the percentage of cards that you can sell to the vendor. In other words, based on the entire Modern cardpool this is the approximate amount of the cardpool you could buylist to the vendor at any given time.

Avg * Buy % – This is a more accurate representation of the average value per card you can get from the buylist. It is the average times the percentage of the Modern card pool that the vendor is buying. This price reflects an average based on availability for the vendor.

% Loss Total – The amount of money you are losing selling to the buylist. On average, if you sell a lot of cards to this buylist based on the fair trade value this is the approximate percentage per card you are losing buylisting those cards.

Real eBay – This is the real eBay value of all cards based on the eBay and PayPal transaction fee of approx 14% per sale.

Data Listed by Rarity

I analyzed the data according to rarity. I did this so it would be easy to see who offered the most not only on mythics and rares but also on commons and uncommons which is where you can make a surprising amount of money selling to a buylist.

I have a set of data for the following rarities:

ALL
MYTHIC
RARE
UNCOMMON
COMMON
NON-COMMON

I wanted to include ALL and NON-COMMON so that I could get a better picture of who in general offered better buylist prices.

ALL

Vendor Average Total Buying Sum Total Prices Median Mode % Buying Avg * Buy % % Loss Total Real eBay Total Real eBay Loss % Loss Total Update
Fair $1.29 10058 $12,960.17 $0.22 $0.14 n/a n/a 0.00% n/a n/a 0.00%
eBay $1.76 9990 $17,611.09 $1.00 $0.99 99.32% 1.75 35.89% $15,145.54 16.86% 16.86%
TCGPlayer $0.90 9872 $8,923.88 $0.10 $0.06 98.15% 0.88 -31.14% n/a n/a -31.14%
CFB $1.33 3207 $4,261.19 $0.10 $0.10 31.89% 0.42 -67.12% n/a n/a -67.12%
ABU $1.47 3578 $5,251.03 $0.21 $0.02 35.57% 0.52 -59.48% n/a n/a -59.48%
CCGHouse $2.06 1739 $3,583.09 $0.51 $0.10 17.29% 0.36 -72.35% n/a n/a -72.35%
Hotsauce $1.91 1488 $2,845.03 $0.45 $0.05 14.79% 0.28 -78.05% n/a n/a -78.05%
Strikezone $1.92 1565 $3,004.52 $0.47 $0.01 15.56% 0.30 -76.82% n/a n/a -76.82%

MYTHIC

Vendor Average Total Buying Sum Total Prices Median Mode % Buying Avg * Buy% % Loss Total Real eBay Total Real eBay Loss % Loss Total Update
Fair $9.41 324 $3,048.12 $5.56 $1.30 n/a n/a 0.00% n/a n/a 0.00%
eBay $7.86 324 $2,546.42 $4.50 $0.99 100.00% 7.86 -16.46% $2,189.92 -28.16% -28.16%
TCGPlayer $7.10 323 $2,292.86 $3.51 $0.60 99.69% 7.08 -24.78% n/a n/a -24.78%
CFB $5.77 229 $1,320.75 $3.00 $0.25 70.68% 4.08 -56.67% n/a n/a -56.67%
ABU $5.22 293 $1,530.92 $2.43 $0.06 90.43% 4.72 -49.77% n/a n/a -49.77%
CCGHouse $6.05 189 $1,143.37 $3.01 $3.01 58.33% 3.53 -62.49% n/a n/a -62.49%
Hotsauce $5.11 193 $985.33 $2.70 $0.59 59.57% 3.04 -67.67% n/a n/a -67.67%
Strikezone $5.49 152 $834.74 $2.70 $0.81 46.91% 2.58 -72.61% n/a n/a -72.61%

RARE

Vendor Average Total Buying Sum Total Prices Median Mode % Buying Avg * Buy% % Loss Total Real eBay Total Real eBay Loss % Loss Total Update
Fair $2.83 2752 $7,800.37 $0.71 $0.38 n/a n/a 0.00% n/a n/a 0.00%
eBay $2.62 2746 $7,206.26 $1.00 $0.99 99.78% 2.61 -7.62% $6,197.38 -20.55% -20.55%
TCGPlayer $2.02 2741 $5,548.69 $0.42 $0.25 99.60% 2.01 -28.87% n/a n/a -28.87%
CFB $1.71 1585 $2,711.00 $0.25 $0.10 57.59% 0.98 -65.25% n/a n/a -65.25%
ABU $1.64 2087 $3,423.47 $0.32 $0.06 75.84% 1.24 -56.11% n/a n/a -56.11%
CCGHouse $2.05 1095 $2,246.07 $0.75 $0.10 39.79% 0.82 -71.21% n/a n/a -71.21%
Hotsauce $2.25 733 $1,647.65 $0.68 $0.23 26.64% 0.60 -78.88% n/a n/a -78.88%
Strikezone $2.12 935 $1,986.63 $0.65 $0.14 33.98% 0.72 -74.53% n/a n/a -74.53%

UNCOMMON

Vendor Average Total Buying Sum Total Prices Median Mode* % Buying Avg * Buy% % Loss Total Real eBay Total Real eBay Loss % Loss Total Update
Fair $0.44 3016 $1,325.46 $0.21 $0.17 n/a n/a 0.00% n/a n/a 0.00%
eBay $1.14 3002 $3,428.58 $0.99 $0.99 99.54% 1.13 158.67% $2,948.58 122.46% 122.46%
TCGPlayer $0.24 2985 $724.00 $0.10 $0.10 98.97% 0.24 -45.38% n/a n/a -45.38%
CFB $0.22 888 $197.96 $0.02 $0.01 29.44% 0.06 -85.06% n/a n/a -85.06%
ABU $0.31 794 $248.54 $0.03 $0.02 26.33% 0.08 -81.25% n/a n/a -81.25%
CCGHouse $0.65 265 $171.08 $0.15 $0.05 8.79% 0.06 -87.09% n/a n/a -87.09%
Hotsauce $0.55 324 $176.81 $0.14 $0.05 10.74% 0.06 -86.66% n/a n/a -86.66%
Strikezone $0.57 267 $151.47 $0.22 $0.01* 8.85% 0.05 -88.57% n/a n/a -88.57%

*Only 15 uncommons on Strikezone’s buylist are $0.01. The buylist is actually quite diverse for uncommons. 35 cards on the buylist are $1 or more for an uncommon and there are plenty of 50c uncommons.

COMMON

Vendor Average Total Buying Sum Total Prices Median Mode % Buying Avg * Buy% % Loss Total Real eBay Total Real eBay Loss % Loss Total Update
Fair $0.20 3966 $786.22 $0.14 $0.14 n/a n/a 0.00% n/a n/a 0.00%
eBay $1.13 3918 $4,429.83 $1.00 $0.99 98.79% 1.12 463.43% $3,809.65 384.55% 384.55%
TCGPlayer $0.09 3823 $358.00 $0.06 $0.06 96.39% 0.09 -54.47% n/a n/a -54.47%
CFB $0.06 505 $31.48 $0.01 $0.01 12.73% 0.01 -96.00% n/a n/a -96.00%
ABU $0.12 404 $48.10 $0.02 $0.02 10.19% 0.01 -93.88% n/a n/a -93.88%
CCGHouse $0.11 183 $19.51 $0.03 $0.01 4.61% 0.01 -97.52% n/a n/a -97.52%
Hotsauce $0.15 238 $35.24 $0.05 $0.05 6.00% 0.01 -95.52% n/a n/a -95.52%
Strikezone $0.15 211 $31.68 $0.09 $0.01 5.32% 0.01 -95.97% n/a n/a -95.97%

NON-COMMON

Vendor Average Total Buying Sum Total Prices Median Mode % Buying Avg * Buy% % Loss Total Real eBay Total Real eBay Loss % Loss Total Update
Fair $2.00 6092 $12,173.95 $0.39 $0.17 n/a n/a 0.00% n/a n/a 0.00%
eBay $2.17 6072 $13,181.26 $1.00 $0.99 99.67% 2.16 8.27% $11,335.88 -6.88% -6.88%
TCGPlayer $1.42 6049 $8,565.88 $0.23 $0.10 99.29% 1.41 -29.64% n/a n/a -29.64%
CFB $1.57 2702 $4,229.71 $0.10 $0.10 44.35% 0.70 -65.26% n/a n/a -65.26%
ABU $1.64 3174 $5,202.93 $0.25 $0.06 52.10% 0.85 -57.26% n/a n/a -57.26%
CCGHouse $2.29 1556 $3,563.58 $0.75 $0.10 25.54% 0.58 -70.73% n/a n/a -70.73%
Hotsauce $2.25 1250 $2,809.79 $0.59 $0.23 20.52% 0.46 -76.92% n/a n/a -76.92%
Strikezone $2.20 1354 $2,972.84 $0.62 $0.14 22.23% 0.49 -75.58% n/a n/a -75.58%

 

So, What Does This Tell Us?

image04

This graph was created using the “Avg * Buylist %” column for each rarity type by vendor. This is a better representation of the average amount you will receive per card when selling to a buylist because it factors in how many cards are available on that vendor’s buylist.

The key to this graph is to look at the NON-COMMON data. Fair is hovering around $2, right? So why is it that on eBay you can get a higher value on average for your cards than the fair price? That seems strange considering you are supposed to be selling at lower than Fair since it is eBay right? Well, the retail sites aren’t buying all the random uncommons in your collection which could be the case on eBay. This is why you see higher averages for eBay than Fair, but good luck trying to sell everything through eBay alone. ABU appears to have highest buylist prices on average for non-common cards.

Looking at the bottom of the chart, the uncommons and commons don’t seem to even appear on the charts. It looks like eBay is the way to go if you need to get rid of commons and uncommons – look at how much higher on average you can get for a common/uncommon on eBay versus the other ways of selling! Of course, this could be a large margin of error on the price scraping tool’s part where it collects eBay auctions that are selling more than one copy of a common/uncommon. Still though if you have the drive and determination you could probably sell a lot of commons and uncommons on eBay even if the auctions are for playsets. You will get a lot higher than the $0.01 buylist prices of the retail sites.

Average doesn’t tell us the whole story, however. We should also look at it from another perspective.

image05

It may be true that the shops are buying fewer commons and uncommons, and who can blame them since they are generally worth less than mythics and rares. Note that they still do buy these types of cards, and for some shops like CFB and ABU they are not an insignificant number. Just be aware that at some point the law of diminishing returns will come into play – how much effort do you want to make on buylisting a bunch of $0.01 cards?

CFB and ABU are buying significantly more cards than their competitors by looking at the total non-common cards that are on their buylists. This helps curb the law of diminishing returns. If you have a lot of cards to offload, it can be convenient to ship them all to one buylist and get paid all from one source. You will have a better chance of doing this through CFB or ABU for Modern cards. Not to say that you won’t get the best price, especially on a card by card basis. But on average you will be able to sell more to these shops and thus increase your chances of offloading cards that you may otherwise have to put more work into selling.

Let’s look at the data from more perspectives, the median and mode buylist prices per vendor.

image03

image02

By knowing the median price per vendor we can compare it to the average and see how far off the two are. If they are off by a large margin, that means that a few data points are skewing the average upwards or lower. Thankfully the average and median graphs are very similar looking which means that there aren’t any outliers on any of the buylists that are significantly altering the average.

The mode, on the other hand, tells us what the most common price per buylist we can expect for a rarity. The clear outlier here is CCGHouse – if you are in the market for buylisting mythic rares, CCGHouse is buying most of their mythics at $3. What CFB and ABU offer for the guy that wants to get rid of a large amount of commons and uncommons they clearly lack for mythics – most mythics on ABU’s buylist are less than $0.10. If you have a lot of mythics you should definitely check out CCGHouse because odds are they will pay the most for your mythic rare. Hotsauce and Strikezone pay more for mythics than CFB and ABU but they have significantly fewer cards on their buylist than the other stores. It looks like Hotsauce pays more per rare on average than other retail sites so if you have a lot of rares you may want to look at Hotsauce as your vendor of choice.

Seeing the eBay numbers for these graphs does make me suspicious. For commons and uncommons, I’ll guessing that MTGPrice counts a playset auction as one card sold which does skew this data in a big way. If the data was collected more reliably from eBay I would predict that it would have statistics similar to TCGPlayer.

Finally, I’ll show you the loss percentage per vendor when buylisting.

image01

 

Disregarding the strange eBay results I was getting, here is the chart starting at 0%.

image00

The reason that eBay was so high on the other chart is because I was getting absurdly high averages for common and uncommon cards that were “sold” on eBay. The most likely reason for this is because they are sold in playsets which means that if you have four of them you can probably sell them for a dollar through eBay. This is pretty decent considering how much lower buylists are. It is a lot of work to be successful at it though.

Looking at loss percentage for the retail websites, the clear winners are ABU, CFB, and CCGHouse. Your losses for non-commons that you sell to those buylists on average are going to be smaller than selling to Hotsauce or Strikezone. Generally speaking, the best way to go is eBay or TCGPlayer if you have the determination and time to get the most money but selling to stores is good if you are pressed for time.

One interesting thing to note is that selling through TCGPlayer does seem to have a much larger loss than I was expecting. For non-common cards in general, you are losing on average about 30% selling through TCGPlayer. This seems pretty high to me. One reason I can think it is so high is because MTGPrice may track all condition types – so MP, HP, and SP cards could be included in that loss. Even still, I didn’t factor in the additional loss you will encounter when listing the items – TCGPlayer charges an 8.5% TCGplayer fee + a PayPal / credit card processing fee (which I think is around 3%). So that loss percent would be even higher if I included that in the calculations. It appears that TCGPlayer is having a “race to the bottom” effect on prices where people are continuing to outbid everyone else on low prices. I wonder if this loss percentage for TCGPlayer will only increase going into the future?

Final Thoughts

So, I realize that this was A TON of information so I’ll try to keep this section short and sweet.

I learned a lot from this endeavor. I learned exactly how much I will be losing when selling to a buylist, but I also learned which buylists and websites I can expect to get a better price for mythics, rares, uncommons, and commons. I thought that analyzing the buylist data for all the Modern legal cards across several several vendors, eBay, and TCGPlayer would be useful for the community to make judgements about how they want to sell their cards. I hope you all can take something away from this like I did.

I would have loved to include data from more vendors (let’s face it, Starcity is out of the question however Cardkingdom is usually pretty competitive) to get a better market picture. I think that I’ve hit a lot of the big names though so the market data should be pretty relevant. Happy selling during Modern season! Also, a shout out to MTGPrice for scraping this data in their new buylist Money Board feature.

Journey Into Nyx Event Deck

By: Jared Yost

Journey-into-Nyx-Event-Deck

At the time of each set release I like to review that set’s event deck to see if it is worth it for you to go out and procure that deck based upon the uncommons and rares that Wizards decides to design the deck around. You are not going to win many FNM’s with the deck but it is an easy way for you to boost your collection of more powerful utility cards that could see play in Standard or in other formats. Let’s take a look at Journey into Nyx’s event deck to see how much value it can provide you.

Decklist

Lands
9 Island
4 Izzet Guildgate C
12 Mountain

Creatures
1 Ætherling R
1 Battlefield Thaumaturge R
1 Chandra’s Phoenix R
3 Guttersnipe U
1 Ogre Battledriver R
1 Oracle of Bones R
4 Spellheart Chimera U
3 Young Pyromancer U

Other spells
1 Anger of the Gods R
2 Divination C
1 Fated Conflagration R
2 Flames of the Firebrand U
1 Harness by Force R
4 Lightning Strike C
3 Magma Jet U
1 Mizzium Mortars R
2 Searing Blood U
1 Steam Augury R
2 Turn // Burn U

Sideboard
2 Dispel C
2 Elixir of Immortality U
3 Essence Scatter C
2 Flames of the Firebrand U
3 Izzet Staticaster U
3 Negate C

Analysis

Let me say this right away – you are not buying this deck for the rares. The rares in the deck are very underwhelming. They couldn’t even include Temple of Epiphany or Steam Vents (I guess it was too much hoping for Mana Confluence) to help smooth out your mana? Lame. The wasted rare slot prizes go to Ogre Battledriver, Oracle of Bones, Fated Conflagration, Harness by Force, and Steam Augury. All of these rares can be had for $0.50 retail and are basically bulk rares on TCGPlayer.

The other rares, while nice, also don’t provide you much value. One could argue that Battlefield Thaumaturge is highly underrated right now and its price could go up in the future. Barring this, there is no single card in the deck that is worth more than $4. Mizzium Mortars has been printed in an event deck before (Return to Ravnica) so there are plenty of copies out there to suppress its price. Aethering is a cool, flashy card however it is never played as more than one copy and is barely breaking $1.50 retail. Anger of the Gods is a great Modern card but does it really need a reprint now at $2.50? Chandra’s Phoenix already has two printings in addition to this event deck so I’m not exactly thrilled about its inclusion even though it is $3 – let’s be real, the price wasn’t going any higher regardless of its inclusion in this event deck.

The heart of this event deck is the uncommons. There are so many juicy uncommons. I had to do a double take when I saw that they were including three Young Pyromancer and three Magma Jet and three Guttersnipe – each of these uncommons are worth more than half the deck’s rares. In addition to this, two copies of Turn // Burn and Searing Blood also looks appealing. Spellheart Chimera, Flames of the Firebrand, and Izzet Staticaster are all popular uncommons and the deck includes several of each. Elixir of Immortality is a popular casual uncommon but it has been printed several times already so it is the least exciting uncommon in the deck.

MSRP of the deck is $25. Based on the retail value of the singles, what is the deck worth?

Total value of cards individually:

1 Izzet Guildgate C @ $0.26 each
1 Ætherling R @ $1.67 each
1 Battlefield Thaumaturge R @ $2.12 each
1 Chandra’s Phoenix R @ $3.24 each
3 Guttersnipe U @ $1.06 each
1 Ogre Battledriver R @ $0.44 each
1 Oracle of Bones R @ $0.42 each
4 Spellheart Chimera U @ 0.30 each
3 Young Pyromancer U @ $2.58 each
1 Anger of the Gods R @ $2.34 each
2 Divination C @ $0.13 each
1 Fated Conflagration R @ $0.45 each
4 Flames of the Firebrand U @ $0.17 each
1 Harness by Force R @ $0.53 each
4 Lightning Strike C @ $0.45 each
3 Magma Jet U @ $0.95 each
1 Mizzium Mortars R @ $3.06 each
2 Searing Blood U @ $1.12 each
1 Steam Augury R @ $0.44 each
2 Turn // Burn U @ $0.50 each
2 Dispel C @ $0.19 each
2 Elixir of Immortality U @ $0.40 each
3 Essence ScatterC @ $0.22 each
3 Izzet Staticaster U @ $0.26 each
3 Negate C @ $0.19 each

Total Value: $39.89

This Seems Wrong…

This value is very misleading even though technically it is correct according to retail. Many of the cards in the deck are commons and uncommons and could probably be picked up for way less than the retail price that MTGPrice reports. If we look at just the rares they add up to only $14.71. Desecration Demon and Hero’s Downfall, when they were reprinted in the Born of the Gods event deck, were together worth more than all the rares in this deck combined. That tells you a lot about how terrible most of the rares in this deck are. This also means that the uncommons and commons add up to $25.18 retail. It’s pretty sad when an event deck’s commons and uncommons are worth more than its rares.

This deck is way less powerful than its Born of the Gods counterpart. I included every card in the deck barring basic land, even the cards which would probably be considered bulk and valueless, and it still didn’t even come close to the value of the BNG mono-black event deck. Sure, if you were to buy each individual part of the deck retail it would cost you more than if you just bought this deck as a package at $25 MSRP. However, most players are looking to pick up event decks so that they can get some of pricier Standard rares while also being able to pick up any chase commons or uncommons from the newest set. Here, you’re only really getting good uncommons, which unfortunately I’m guessing that anyone who plays Standard already has. It’s really aggravating to think that there aren’t even any Journey into Nyx uncommons in the deck which are what people need to pick up when the set comes out, another blow to the deck’s already terrible build from a financial perspective.

Regrettably, when uncommons are reprinted it is much more devastating to the price than rares. Since there are already tons of Young Pyromancers, Guttersnipes, and all the other uncommons in the deck out there already, adding more of them to the pool will suppress their prices. This makes me think that the retail value I calculated above for the uncommons will only go down over time since so many of each are included in the deck. You really only want to buy the deck if you don’t have the uncommons and I’m guessing most players already have them. This is a disappointing event deck.