By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin

Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy.

While you may have been hoping for a shakeup with the banned and restricted list update, alas, it was not to be. Both Krark-Clan Ironworks and Dredge (and Tron) survived unscathed in Modern. Will the Pro Tour be a mountain of uninteractive decks? With several high powered decks all operating on completely different vectors, it may be tough for competitors to find a strategy that beats enough of the linear decks while also managing to play some semblance of its own game.

Reality Smasher (Foil)

Price Today: $8
Possible Price: $20

With Ultimate Masters’ spoiler released in full, we can turn our attention to what’s missing. Among the notable omissions is Reality Smasher. Just in case you’ve forgotten, Eldrazi remains a potent threat in Modern, having taken second in an MTGO Modern Challenge just yesterday (behind Dredge).

With the rise of uninteractive decks, Eldrazi has undoubtedly taken a beating. Where once it was a top metagame choice, it has now slipped to a tier two or three strategy. It may take a banning elsewhere to give the deck space to grow, which after today is at least a few months away. That’s fine though, as it gives us a comfortable entry point.

Looking back on foil Reality Smasher’s price history, we saw it near $25. It floated around $20 as recently as this May. With the rise of KCI, Dredge, and similar strategies, that foil price has fallen to a lowly $8. Given the history of the card, both competitively and financially, it’s not unreasonable to assume it may make those same climbs again. If the Pro Tour sees a volume of Dredge that Wizards deems overbearing, we may see some key bans in January that could lead to a resurgence of Eldrazi.

Mystical Tutor (Foil)

Price Today: $17
Possible Price: $30

Another omission from Ultimate Masters, Mystical Tutor is an incredibly popular spell in EDH. How popular? It’s the 5th most played blue card, and the 43rd most played card overall. That’s popular. To be found within the top 50 means that practically speaking, there are hundreds of thousands of copies to be found in decks across the world.

Mystical Tutor has five various printings, and three come in at foil. That’s worth a closer look though. One is the From The Vault: Realms copy. Even by Wizards’ own admission this foiling process is not particularly popular. (That may be part of the reason we’ve since seen the discontinuation of the FTV series.) And speaking of FTV, its replacement, the signature spellbook, we can find a foil Mystical Tutor there as well. There are two issues with that one; one is that the art is all about Jace. There’s definitely burnout on Jace these days among the player base these days. The second is that the foiling process appears to be even worse than FTV’s. Watch a video of it; you can barely tell it’s foil.

Among the three foil printings of Tutor, two are empirically terrible, which leaves us with just the EMA foil. All of the sudden, we’re looking at a single good foil of one of the most popular foil cards in the game, with solid art to boot. I’m getting on board here.

There’s a couple copies below $18, and a chunk below $20. Not too many though, and the overall supply is relatively shallow. We haven’t seen much price movement over the last two years, but that doesn’t necessarily mean squat. Plenty of cards sit seemingly dormant for months or years at a time, only to suddenly see a otherwise unexplained surge in price. So long as Wizards doesn’t give us another Mystical Tutor, this could be one of those cards.

Bloodghast (Foil)

Price Today: $18
Possible Price: $30

Bloodghast won twice over today; not only is it not in the recently spoiled Ultimate Masters, it also wasn’t hampered by any bans today. He’s got a new lease on life as of 11am EST today, at least until January 21st (the next B&R update).

The math here is simple. Dredge is arguably the most popular deck in Modern right now. Every iteration seems to play four without question. It just dodged a major ban announcement as well as a reprint. Any reluctance on the part of buyers should be assuaged for two months. If a player were thinking about whether to pick up a set of ghasts, they’ve gotten all the messaging they need to take the plunge.

Zendikar foils are hanging around at $35, and IMA is half of that at $17 or $18. We shouldn’t expect IMA foils to fully catch Zendikar ones, as original foils always maintain a premium, but there’s plenty of room between $18 and $35. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Zendikar foils pull up towards $40 or more, and IMA foils trail at low $30s.

Travis Allen has  been playing Magic: The Gathering since 1994, mostly in upstate New York. Ever since his first FNM he’s been trying to make playing Magic cheaper, and he first brought his perspective to MTGPrice in 2012. You can find his articles there weekly, as well as on the podcast MTG Fast Finance.

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By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin

Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy.

Two Grand Prixs hit the books this weekend, with a hometown hero taking one down, but there’s nothing there for us. Down under was sealed, so that’s really dead, and even the Standard one didn’t present anything new in the wake of the Pro Tour. While it appears to be a fun Standard format, I simply don’t think there’s any fertile soil there any longer. With no shakeups on the horizon until the next set in February, there’s no reason to think we’ll see any cards meaningfully change in value.

At the same time, the markets have been awfully quiet lately. We had possibly our fastest @mtgfastfinance ever last week, as there simply wasn’t much going on. Ultimate Masters spoilers are hitting today and tomorrow, with the full list due Wednesday, so we’ll have some brief excitement this week, but after that, it’s going to be all quiet on the western front until January most likely.

The Mirari Conjecture (Foil)

Price Today: $1.75
Possible Price: $9

I’m starting this week off with a “feels good” pick. Mirari Conjecture feels good. It’s a cool card. It draws you two cards over two turns, and then sets you up for a bonkers third turn, especially in the mid to late game, where you have a pile of mana.

We haven’t seen it invade EDH yet, though there’s precedent. Take a gander at the top played blue cards on EDHREC and you’ll see that the seventh most popular blue creature is Archaeomancer, a four mana 1/2 that returns an instant or sorcery from the graveyard to your hand. He’s a well known face to anyone that’s been playing awhile. Mirari Conjecture basically does his job twice, then gives you that big payoff on turn three.

I’m not anticipating that Conjecture is going to end up a top ten blue card or anything. It’s a little too narrow, and a little too tough to abuse to get that much out of it. However, it’s certainly able to become a staple. I would imagine someone only has to get this to trigger on the third step once to become a convert. Once we start seeing enough ofo that, those $1.75 foils are going to begin disappearing. Supply is decent, as it’s an in-print Standard rare, but it’s not deep deep. It’s reasonable. Comfortable. Not excessive. Grab a copy of yourself now, and as you hit Black Friday sales this week, keep this one in mind as you’re looking for stuff to throw in the cart at a discount.

Rune-Scarred Demon (Foil)

Price Today: $3.75
Possible Price: $12

Occasionally I find a card that makes me do a double take. How is this card so affordable? It’s happened to me many times over the years. A popular card that should have very limited supply is inexplicably bountiful and cheap. I stare at it, wondering if I’m missing something, and don’t bother to buy any, because the supply is too great to bother right now. Sometimes I’ll bump into the same card multiple times over a span of months, each time having the same reaction. Eventually, I find myself looking at it with a price tag several times greater than it has been, and I kick myself for not having bought them. Happens without fail. I’m kind of having that now, with Rune-Scarred Demon.

Rune-Scarred Demon is in 16,000 EDH decks. More than 1 in 10 decks that made black mana play Demon. It’s not hard to imagine why, either. The number one most popular black card in the format is Demonic Tutor. Do you know what Demon does when he enters the battlefield? He Demonic Tutors. And he’s a 6/6. Show up, search for a card, punch people in the face. All good stuff. Especially if you’ve got any blinking going on, then you’re just a jerk.

Still, you can find several foils from both Magic 2012, his original foil printing, and Iconic Masters, his only other foil printing, under $4. And plenty below $6. How? Why? A card this popular should be way harder to find. I could understand if the M12 copies were $17 and the IMA ones were $4, sure. But the M12 ones too? Huh?

There’s nothing deep or clever about this. I look at Demon, and I can’t figure out why it isn’t more expensive. It’s got low supply, it’s quite popular, and it’s flexible. Why aren’t more people buying this card? Whatever. We should buy it, and then wait. Eventually it will catch up. They always do.

Worn Powerstone (Foil)

Price Today: $4
Possible Price: $12

There are a lot of mana rocks in EDH, some better than others. Like Sol Ring. Mana Crypt is quite good. Mana Vault is solid too, though more “fair.” You’ve got the colorless ones too, like Chromatic Lantern, which don’t produce in volume, but produce in quality. Really though, once you get past the first two or three, you start making choices. What fits my build the best? If you want raw efficiency, there isn’t much better than Worn Powerstone.

Three on the way in and tapping for two is just about the best it gets after Sol Ring. Sure, the “enters tapped” part sucks, no arguing there. It’s not all that bad though. On turn three you probably weren’t using that two colorless mana anyways, so if you’re playing this on curve, it barely matters. And if you’ve got untap mechanics in your deck – e.g. Paradox Engine – it doesn’t even matter.

I don’t need to sell you on Powerstone though. It’s in 25,000 decks. It’s like, the 50th? Most popular card in EDH overall, depending on what metric you use. People play it. Heck, look at the reprint list. It’s been printed nine times. Nine is a lot of times. Five of the places it was reprinted have the word “Commander” in them. It’s popular in EDH, guys.

And it just so happens that out of all nine prints, only a single one is available in foil. Eternal Masters is the only place you can get a foil Worn Powerstone. It’s a bit surprising, but really, if they’re printing it every single year in the Commander precons, then they’re not going to feel the need to find space for it elsewhere. And then you end up with a very popular card only having one foil printing.

Supply is solid right now for sure. Plenty available around $4. But if this trend continues, with only Commander reprints, there’s going to be a lot fewer of these in the future than there are today, and then prices in the $10 to $15 range are going to start looking quite real.

Travis Allen has  been playing Magic: The Gathering since 1994, mostly in upstate New York. Ever since his first FNM he’s been trying to make playing Magic cheaper, and he first brought his perspective to MTGPrice in 2012. You can find his articles there weekly, as well as on the podcast MTG Fast Finance.

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By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin

Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy.

On the whole, Pro Tour Guilds of Ravnica was a mixed bag. LSV took second, and everyone got to enjoy rooting for the good guy the whole time. Of course, the event was full of nothing but white weenie decks, so unless you’re Craig Wescoe, the deck diversity didn’t really do a lot for you.

With no real breakout decks or cards, there’s nowhere else for us to turn in Standard. The best time to ditch any Standard inventory you may have had was somewhere over the last 30 days, so make sure you finish clearing out your stash now. That way you’ll have plenty of spare resources when holiday sales and a general buying drought set in.

Prized Amalgam (Foil)

Price Today: $5
Possible Price: $13

Dredge has been enjoying fair popularity in Modern for awhile now, with Prized Amalgam and Hollow One having done a lot of work to revitalize the archetype. Amalgam is especially well-suited to Dredge, as his requirement of playing a creature from the graveyard is so universally applicable to the strategy, that it’s tough to imagine a build that doesn’t satisfy that condition.

There’s no question about how popular the strategy has been either. Bloodghast is the 3rd most popular creature in Modern, Stinkweed Imp is 11th, and Amalgam is 12th. Despite plenty of sideboard hate out there, dredge is still strong enough to put up consistent numbers. Inventory numbers reflect that too. Amalgam only has one printing from Shadows Over Innistrad, which isn’t old, but it’s been two and a half years, so it’s not fresh and recent.

Checking out foils you’ll see a couple in the $5 and $6 range, and the ladder ramps up quickly from there. That’s a strong indicator for rapid price growth once those bottom copies go. With dredge’s sustained popularity, I don’t expect to be able to pay $5 for foil Amalgams for much longer.

Ancestral Vision (Foil)

Price Today: $20
Possible Price: $40

We all thought that Jace would herald a new age for control in Modern. So far, that doesn’t seem to have happened (yet). What has pushed control is Teferi, Hero of Dominaria. It wasn’t more than two weeks ago that Ben Stark (I think) was writing about Jace is irrelevant and Teferi is the best planeswalker in control. That’s a strong claim.

You’ve heard us talk about Teferi on the @mtgfastfinance podcast often enough that I won’t get too far into it now. Instead I’m interested in a card that’s been showing up regularly in all these control strategies. Another unbanned blue card, Ancestral Vision has found its way into the format via the opening that Teferi has made. If you’re planning on winning with a five mana planeswalker, you’ve got some time. Which is exactly where Ancestral Vision is good.

Foil copies will run you about $20 right now. There aren’t many before you hit $25, and then only a few more to $30. Given that the original foils are $125, we know the ceiling is a long ways off still. So long as control continues to hold its share of the metagame, and Vision is part of that, we’re going to see these slip away over time.

Myr Retriever (Foil)

Price Today: $8
Possible Price: $15

Take your pick, honestly. You’ll find a couple Myr Retrievers in KCI, a combo deck whose closest relative is Eggs, and you’ll find buckets more in EDH, where it’s in 8,000 decks and a signature feature of Breya decks, one of the most popular commanders of all time.

There are two foil Retrievers; Mirrodin and Modern Masters. If you’ve ever held a Mirrodin foil you’ll know those are for collectors only. They’re hideous. You can’t even tell they’re foil. If you want a good looking foil Retriever, you’ve got to go to MMA. And there are are about 10 of them below $10. And frankly, not many more above $10 either.

With Myr Retriever’s popularity in Commander, where it’s been a go-to in artifact strategies since the format’s inception, and its continued presence in Modern as a utility card in KCI, supplies are going to continue dwindle, with at least a price double-up on the horizon.

Travis Allen has  been playing Magic: The Gathering since 1994, mostly in upstate New York. Ever since his first FNM he’s been trying to make playing Magic cheaper, and he first brought his perspective to MTGPrice in 2012. You can find his articles there weekly, as well as on the podcast MTG Fast Finance.

 

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By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin

Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy.

Magic’s community is awash in discussion of Ultimate Masters this week. Box toppers started showing up in mailboxes late last week as a PR stunt slash apology for how horrible the Guilds of Ravnica purchasing experience was. We didn’t have to wait long to find out what they were, as Ultimate Masters was announced just today. With an MSRP of $335 it’s going to scare a lot of players away, but the value of those box toppers is no joke.

Drogskol Captain

Price Today: $2.50
Possible Price: $9

With Grand Prix Atlanta in the books and another win for Bant Spirits, it’s clear that this deck is the real deal. We weren’t sure what to think of Humans when that first showed up, and it has shown that it’s capable of getting the job done. Now here we are with Spirits taking down back to back GPs and we should start talking about what things are going to look like in this list in a few months.

Prices aren’t dirt cheap the way they were a few months ago when we all wondered if this was just a fluke. We can’t pick up foil Drogskol Captains for $3 any longer. That ship has sailed. Instead, we should be looking at non-foils. Early adoption of the deck is going to put pressure on foils immediately, as people dash to get the limited supply that’s out there. Once that initial wave disappears, if the deck keeps putting up results, you’ll see the copies needed for average people that just want to jam the deck start to thin out. That’s the stage we’re in now, and a key piece is Drogskol Captain. He’s a virtual lock in every iteration, which is great for moving copies.

Today you’ll find a little under 60 vendors with copies, and many have several, so we’re not looking at running out this week. Instead, we’re looking into the spring, and possibly beyond for this to start to move. Barring an unexpected reprint in some ancillary product (since with the name Drogskol he’s not coming back in Ravnica any time soon), there’s nowhere to go but up. The cheapest copies are going to be getting snagged by players looking to play the deck, loose copies will filter out of collections as prices are hit $4 to $5, there will be a lull as the new supply is chewed through, and then the price increase will continue again.

Spell Queller

Price Today: $6
Possible Price: $15

Long-time readers (and especially listeners of @mtgfastfinance) will have heard this name a few times before. Back when Spell Queller was spooking Standard and just barely beginning to make ripples in Modern I began to take notice, and recommended foils. I pushed them again maybe a year or so, after the card had firmly situated itself in Modern. And now here we are, with Bant Spirits the latest rage, and I think we can start looking at non-foils.

Spell Queller has only two printings; the original pack copies, and the prerelease foils. Like Drogskol Captain, supply is healthy right now. That’s fine. We’re early in the period where there will be a sustained collective interest in the card since the deck is doing so well. Even if Bant Spirits the strategy begins to fade, Spell Queller has proven it has the chops to compete in the format, and future deck builders will be likely to consider it as a serious option.

With prices starting at $5 to $6, it isn’t going to be hard to pick these up out of trade binders or during sales. Keep stashing them away and forget you have them. These could pull up above $10 easily, and you’ll be glad you did when that time comes.

Razaketh, the Foulblooded

Price Today: $6
Possible Price: $13

We can’t do a Watchtower without touching on the greatest format, EDH. A constant source of price pressure, there’s always something to turn our attention to.

When he was released, I was all about Razaketh. One of Griselbrand’s companions, Razaketh has Demonic Tutor as an activated ability. Spicy! Today EDHREC is reporting Razaketh in about 4,500 decks, which is a healthy number given the time elapsed since his release. Foils have been maturing well, with initial buy-ins of $7 to $8 now seeing 100% gains and low supply.

Today we’re talking about non-foils though. While there are still some foil opportunities under $15 if you scour the internet that should still payoff nicely, non-foils are getting attractive. Like our other two cards this week, we aren’t looking at a card that’s got seven copies on the market. No, there’s still a healthy supply of Razaketh. (CFB has fifty in stock alone.) Our time of departure on Razaketh isn’t this year. It’s probably middle to late next year, after attrition has drained all the copies under $10, there’s fewer on the market, and larger price gaps between the copies that are out there.

Razaketh lets players fire off Demonic Tutors as quickly as they can generate thrull or elf tokens. Demonic Tutor is the most popular black card in EDH. Razaketh is going to keep finding his way into nearly any deck that can cast him.

Travis Allen has  been playing Magic: The Gathering since 1994, mostly in upstate New York. Ever since his first FNM he’s been trying to make playing Magic cheaper, and he first brought his perspective to MTGPrice in 2012. You can find his articles there weekly, as well as on the podcast MTG Fast Finance.