Hello and welcome to the next installment of Mana Math! We’re dealing with Avatar: The Last Airbender, which is a full-size set, not a mini like Spider-Man was, so there’s a lot more to do in the draft format. We’re also focusing on the Collector Boosters, since the Play Boosters are absolute garbage if you want to pull anything that isn’t a regular-frame rare or mythic.

Let’s do some math!

Why am I skipping Play Boosters? Mainly because your odds are much worse than terrible. The wildcard slot in a play booster is 97.6% to give you a main-set nonfoil common, uncommon, rare, or mythic, making everything in a special frame less than 1%. In the actual rare/mythic slot, you’re 92.6% to get a nonfoil rare/mythic from the main set, leaving every variant crammed into that leftover 7.4%. And then the foil slot is more than half commons, with 98.5% of pulls being C/U/R/M from the main set, leaving a mere 1.5% of foils to be anything Booster Fun. That means in 200 packs, you’ll get three Booster Fun foils! Ugh. You might open one, and I hope you understand what incredible odds you beat to do so.

For each of these charts, I’m using Wizards’ MSRP of $38 for a single Collector Booster pack. I’m aware that the prices on boxes are varied, depending on where you get them, so if you have a different number, feel free to use that in your own calculations. Right now the lowest price on Avatar Collector Display Boxes is about $550 on TCG, but those are on presale mode till 11/21.

We’re going to go through the last three slots for a Collector Booster. In order, that’s nonfoil Booster Fun, the Source Material cards, and then the foils for Booster Fun. 

To start with, the nonfoils:

The rarest drops here are the battle poses and the mythic elemental frames, and compared to other nonfoils in the past, they will be surprisingly difficult to open. If any of them turn out to be strong in Commander or Constructed, the nonfoils could end up being pricier than expected. As a point of comparison, the hardest nonfoil to pull in Edge of Eternities was the nonfoil poster mythics, at about 1 in 375 and that’s a bit easier than the 460 or the 454 that represent the least common pulls for the nonfoils for TLA.

Next up, let’s look at the Source Material, 61 reprints using stills from the actual show:

I both love and hate that they use actual frames from the cartoon, but I adore that the artist is given as the season and episode.

All the cards are listed as mythic rarity, but all of them are mythic, so the actual rarity doesn’t matter. Compared to Spider-Man, this will be a little more difficult, since the comic book cover SPM cards dropped every 53/160 packs. There are some great hits in this list too, I can’t wait to get some more nonfoil The Great Henge for cheap.

This list also has Force of Negation and Teferi’s Protection as big hits, but there’s a whole lot of good hits too, but the supply on nonfoils should be pretty significant and you’ll have a chance to buy some very good deals. Contributing to this is the art, which can be polarizing, especially on something like Cruel Tutor or Bloodchief Ascension, focused on drawn animation that doesn’t feel as high-resolution as the things we’re used to. 

Finally, the foils:

Regrettably, I had to a bit of estimation here: adding up all the known percentages gives us 99% exactly, with the mythic rare EA, the Neon Ink, and the Raised Foil Aang listed at less than 1% each. 

So I used 0.45% for the EA, as that’s very close to the other mythics in this set. That leaves 0.55%, and I split that evenly among the Neon Ink and the Raised Foil, but I suspect that’s wrong, going by the prices The Soul Stone is fetching in premium printings. I suspect that it’ll be a split where the Raised Foil is in the 2000-3000 pack range, but in the absence of data, all I can do is speculate. If we get better data, I’ll update this post. 

Overall, we’re looking at pretty reasonable drop rates for everything but those Neon Ink and the Raised Foil. I can’t predict if this raised foil will have the same rarity as the raised foil textless Soul Stone, but all things are possible when there’s five cards and just 1% of slots left. I’d also be very surprised if it got similar prices, but if Avatar unlocks new collectors the same way Final Fantasy did, the sky is the limit here. 

It also needs to be said that about 85% of Collector Booster packs will have a rare in this slot, so the average CB box will only have about two mythics. That’s almost the same as Spider-Man’s rate in Collector Boosters, but Edge of Eternities was about 70% rare in this slot. We’ll have to see if this greatly impacts the prices as well.

I hope this information helps you make good decisions about cracking packs, and that you feel sufficiently lucky when you open something amazing! As always, if you’d like to discuss methods or numbers, please feel free to hit me up on social media, or come to the ProTrader Discord!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

We just got a Superdrop this week and we’re a week and a half away from the next one, seven Secret Lairs focused on Sony Playstation universes. I like adding in new IP, even if I haven’t played these games, and Secret Lair is the perfect place to do this. 

So today, I’ll go over the drops, including the unique cards, and evaluate what I want to buy and what I want to be patient on. 

Sony’s had a lot of great exclusives over the years, and here’s a handy chart:

Image courtesy of data40.com

My favorite bit here is Twisted Metal, even though that hasn’t had a game released in 13 years. 

We do have a little bit of precedence here, in the Tomb Raider drop from 2023. That lair has climbed to $200 sealed, but that’s the old era of Secret Lairs. This stopped in January 2024 when they switched to a limited-print model. We’ve had plenty of mechanically unique cards in SLs since, including things like Marvel and Deadpool and Sonic, so while I wish that this wasn’t the distribution for such cards, it is what it is.

For each of the drops, I’ll go over the EDHREC numbers and the other special versions, as well as a discussion of how good a Commander it/they would be. This is based purely off of my experience in Commander, I’m just someone who loves playing the format, not a deckbuilding expert.

Secret Lair x The Last of Us Part I

Cabal Ritual (177k decks, MYB2 foil $60) – There are a lot of Commander decks that use this very aggressively to ramp on mana, especially as part of a big combo turn. I wouldn’t expect this foil to be more than $15-$20, but that’s solid value. 

Haunted One (27k decks, $40 FEA) – This ought to drop pretty far, since its previous printing was pretty small and the card is fantastic in kindred decks like Zombies.

Secret Lair x The Last of Us Part II

Dictate of Erebos (113k decks, SL foil $31) – The previous SL foil is a fun bit of graphic design, looking very different yet still a Magic card. The original art, zoomed in on a face, is also awesome, and while this is a nice borderless foil, it’ll be available pretty cheap for a while.

Mycoloth (53k decks, SL foil $24) – The other Mycoloth has a lettering/look that some don’t resonate with, but the bigger problem is that this card is all building towards playing a huge creature and hoping it survives a turn. Lots of potential, but hard to utilize.

The four Partner-Survivor commanders synergize nicely into Jund colors, and you can pick any two of them to have fun with. Joel is going to draw you a lot of cards, and Ellie the vengeful has an ability that plays into a whole lot of deckbuilding. It’s easy to imagine a deck built around her that can sacrifice effectively. 

Secret Lair x God of War: Greek

World at War (27k decks, pack foil $20) 

Rite of Flame (129k decks!, pack foil $70)

Sulfuric Vortex (42k decks, pack foil $40)

Pyrohemia (39k decks, pack foil $55)

I don’t think I’ve seen another SL where there were no special versions previously, but here we are. Rite of Flame surprised me, as I didn’t know there were so many decks hungry for a spell that adds just one bonus mana, but yeah, there’s a lot of decks that want it. Kratos is the reddest red card ever, and if you combine it with something like Peacekeeper (so creatures can’t attack) then you’ve got something truly special. 

Secret Lair x God of War: Norse

Teferi’s Ageless Insight (163k decks, SLD foil $13) – Excellent card, and two-sided to boot. This should be the best version from the getgo. 

Iroas, God of Victory (70k decks, SLD foil $40) – I’m partial to the constellation Gods, but this is a great presentation for a card that goes right into every attack-based Commander. 

As for the father and son, there’s only 13 cards (so far, I’m expecting at least two more in Avatar) that reference experience counters and the only five-color one is Azlask, the other five-color Eldrazi. It’s immediately tempting to me to build that deck, especially as resolving Atreus’s ability will go a long long way. These will be good, but not great. 

Secret Lair x Uncharted

Midnight Clock (172k decks, FEA $14)

Whip of Erebos (131k decks, Promo Pack $20)

Chain Reaction (143k decks, pack foil $13)

Passionate Archaeologist (68k decks, FEA $200)

By far my favorite drop on the board, these are three staples and you’re getting upgrades for all the art. Ellie’s Dictate is just a picture of her, but these Clocks and Whips look like important relics and I will be picking up stacks at Dump Week. Those two, plus the Chain, should be very good value indeed over time. Archaeologist was a mythic from a barely-opened set and while these versions won’t be super expensive, they won’t be cheap either. 

Nathan is an excellent commander, pushing the ‘stop hitting yourself’ theme out of Sultai and into Grixis. You do have to pay for the spells, but you also get to cast those spells regardless of timing. Can’t get lands into play, though. 

Secret Lair x Horizon: Into the Forbidden West

Farseek (1.16 million decks, FCA foil $3)

Blightsteel Colossus (99k decks, Borderless foil $70, SLD foil $50)

Tarrian’s Soulcleaver (100k decks, FEA $2)

Meteor Golem (136k decks, SLD foils $3.50 and $4.50)

Given that this drop is starting at $50 for foils, don’t count on the Blightsteel being the same price. That’s a Megatron art, which is much cooler. This is instantly the best Farseek, and that’s good, but these other two are pretty mediocre.

Aloy is interesting, as we don’t have a lot of artifact creature themes pointed at Simic. The big problem is, she’s not very powerful: she’s five mana to get one discover trigger. That’s just not going to do it in most Commander games.

Secret Lair x Ghost of Tsushima

Path to Exile (1.54 million decks, special versions range from $4 to $17)

Borne Upon A Wind (123k decks, scrolls foil $25)

Ghostly Flicker (165k decks, pack foil $9)

Eiganjo Castle (29k decks, pack foil $95)

Sweet Path, but there’s already a ton of PtE out there. The other cards are pretty good, and Eijango is a land that really isn’t played enough in Commander. I like getting good versions of staples plus a good Commander in a drop like this. Jin Sakai is a neat thing to do, to build around creatures that need to hit the opponent to do anything. The canary in the coal mine here is Summon: Primal Odin, as this plus Jin means someone goes away for good. 

Overall, these drops range from excellent to middling, but there’s two big considerations for this whole superdrop.

First, they are all at the higher price point of $40 for nonfoil and $50 for foils. That’s a 25% bump, usually reserved for the charity drops, and the higher starting price means a longer time to get to profitability. Second, we’re in an era where the bots are running wild on these drops. The Kieran Yanner drop sold out in forty minutes last week, immediately taking bundles out of play for everyone and causing a scramble.

Wizards says what they are doing is to take everyone in the queue at 9 am and randomize them, so everyone’s got an equal chance. I’ve seen posts explaining how to game this system, but I’m not tech-savvy enough to know if it’s real or not. I’m presuming the worst, that everything will be bought up quickly.

In the before time, roughly seven months ago, I would have comfortably sat this one out, waiting for Dump Week and not worrying about mechanically unique cards. I wish that Secret Lair was only about reprints, but I’m not in charge. We’re in an era where the FOMO drives a lot of buying behavior, and we also see people reselling immediately to get their cash back. As an example, let’s look at two of the sold-out Spider-Man SL drops are on TCGplayer this week: Villainous Plots and Mana Symbiote lands. The Plots are available in nonfoil for $42 and foil for $51, which is $10 profit over the cost of buying in, but that’s before the tax on buying it, the fees from TCGPlayer, and the actual cost of shipping. I find it hard to believe they making more than pennies here.

Mana Symbiote is a bit better, with the sealed being $90 and the individual lands (two of each) adding up to $120 retail. People are in a hurry to buy but they are also in a mighty hurry to turn it over as fast as possible, even if that means a tiny profit or even a small loss.

I wish I could say that things will be reasonable around this drop, but I’m suspicious. I think the frenzy is on, and while some of the Secret Scare superdrop didn’t sell out, it’ll take a lot of non-selling-out to change behaviors. We’ve seen the Yanner, Iron Maiden, and Jaws drops resell for hefty profits (I’ve done that myself) so I expect the rush will be on despite these cards mostly being mid. 

Personally, I’ll try to get a couple copies of Uncharted and Ghost, but if I get taken out by the rush and the queue, I won’t stress. Even right now, there’s opportunities in Dump Week to make a healthy profit. I want you to stay reasonable and thoughtful in a time that isn’t acting in either of those ways. 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

I’m trying to get people used to the idea of ‘Dump Week’ as the first week that a Secret Lair Drop becomes available widely on TCGPlayer. I wasn’t prepared for this phenomenon when it first happened, but I cannot deny that it is real and it is powerful. 

In case you doubt me, let’s go over some recent Lairs and see how real this is. 

A gentle reminder that Dump Week is not set in stone. It’s whenever the majority of Lairs arrive in individuals’ hands, and these are people who don’t want to hold the Lair for later reselling. They want to get as much as they can for it, but right now and are willing to undercut everyone to make what money they can. I can’t speak to why they are in such a hurry to be the first one to sell, but they are, and this is the result. 

Most of the time, I’m expecting a card to presell at a very high price, as the first copies sold tend to be very overpriced, and then there’s an immediate drop in price, followed by a bounce upwards as people think a card’s gotten too cheap, and then usually a slow downward trend in price as the floor is sought again. 

I’m going to go backwards in time, from right now, and count off some of the pricier cards from each drop to see how cheap they were at some point in their history.

Festival in a Box: Atlanta 2025

Sliver Legion: Every other nonfoil is $55+, and foils start around $65. Except for the Extra Life one, which art is all white paper and a bit of crayon. I appreciate the spirit in which these are sold, but they can do better for a charity. The FIAB version, which you could only get by buying the whole bundle, went down to $26 and is now $29. It’ll creep upwards slowly from here on out, but three bucks is three bucks.

The Ur-Dragon: I picked this on the most recent MTG Fast Finance, and honestly, I’m about two weeks late to the party. The best commander of all time (long may he reign) who cheats at Magic by making the most powerful creature type a whole mana cheaper no matter what, the only special versions were from Commander Masters and really don’t highlight his glory. The first sold copies here went for $18, and now you need to spend just under $30. It’s worth it, too, to pick up some copies for later reselling. 

Featuring: Deathburger

Foundry Inspector (Galaxy Foil) – Really, I need to let the graph do the talking here.

Made it all the way down to $7, and rebounded back up. You didn’t have long at $7, as Dump Week is a fleeting thing, but it was there if you were ready. 

Goblin Engineer (Galaxy Foil) – Same thing, went down to a low of $9, now back up to $15. 

Alien Auroras

Crucible of Worlds (Galaxy Foil) – An interesting case here, as Dump Week happened, prices fell then rebounded, but then people really needed to sell their galaxy foils and so the card has re-fallen to an even lower price. 

I cannot predict why this happened here, but even the cheapest early print nonfoils are $32, so having these available right now at $28, with 171,000 registered decks on EDHREC, is pretty wild. 

Sylvan Safekeeper has a similar trend, though not as pronounced on the re-gain and just plateaued a little before dropping again.

Here’s Zuran Orb, which seems more on pattern:

My guess here is that for the more expensive Lairs, being galaxy foil, there were a lot of people holding and they tried to cash in but just undercut each other to pieces. If you know a clearer explanation, please stop by the Discord and fill me in!

Sonic the Hedgehog X Magic: the Gathering (I’m combining all the lairs here)

Hammer of Nazahn (Piko Piko Hammer) (Rainbow Foil) – In line with expectations: Started at $8, dropped to $5, bounced to $10, drifted back down to $8. 

The Reaver Cleaver (Knuckles’s Gloves) (Rainbow Foil) – Similar story: dropped like a rock to $6.50 to begin with and has slowly crept up since.

Sol Ring (Rainbow Foil) – This was a little different, as it didn’t hit the low in the first week. Instead, it took about 3-4 weeks to reach bottom, at which point it hopped back up to $25, been on a very slow decline since.

The rest of the drop has followed the expected pattern: Early drop the first week, small bounce, then trend down.

So with this pattern in mind, here’s my main targets for the drop landing Monday, the Secret Scare Superdrop:

Animate Dead – Coming from Iron Maiden: Album Art, I’m ambivalent on this Lair but this card should be a sweet pickup in the $10-$15 range.

Furby Sol Ring (Confetti Foil) – The Confetti drops are $60, and are another attempt to goose the profit margins for Magic cards. If confettis sell out fast, I’d target these at $25 for a resale in the $40-$50 range, but if the confettis are slow to sell out, we might get a chance at these for even cheaper. 

Tamiyo’s Safekeeping (Confetti Foil) – I mentioned this last week, but as a $3 uncommon, I’m hoping to get these close to $3 but I still think $5 would be a good entry price. 

Vito, Thorn of the Dusk Rose – I fully expect to see these foils in the $5 range, and that’s an easy pickup.

Guardian Project – If we’re lucky, we’ll get this below $20 but I suspect we’ll have to settle for $25. 

Dwight-O-Lantern (Reaper King) – The five-color Commander deck in Lorwyn 2 is Elementals, so our only other potential pothole is a bonus sheet in the set where the King is reprinted. Otherwise, I’ll enjoy buying this for $2-$4.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

We’ve got a big drop happening a week from Monday, on the 13th, and there’s a lot to unpack. Ten drops, a range of prices, and an interesting choice of promos to reward us for every $200 spent. 

This is on top of the seven-drop bonanza coming to us two weeks later, and if you are trying to decide which drops here and new to get, don’t worry, I’ve got you covered. So let’s review the cards, the usage patterns, and decide what to buy.

For each card, I’ve listed the EDHREC inclusion rate (a reminder, EDHREC is not perfect data, but it’s all we’ve got) and the relevant special versions of the cards. I’m focusing on borderless things, because new art in the same frame doesn’t always move the needle, but a lot of these are getting their second Secret Lair treatment. 

Unless otherwise noted, these drops are all $30 for the nonfoil and $40 for the rainbow foil. 

Artist Series: Kieran Yanner 

Armageddon: (29k decks, Invocation $70)

Northern Paladin (837 decks!, no special version)

Lord of the Pit (5100 decks, no special version)

Demonic Tutor (708k decks, Game Changer, CMM borderless foil $120, STX JPN Alt Foil $300, Box Topper $90)

Frankly, this is one of the best values I’ve ever seen in a Secret Lair. The cheapest nonfoils are $45+, and you can get one here for $30. The art is stunning, worthy of being hung on the wall, and let me send a big thank you to everyone at WotC who decided to give artists a borderless frame and more to work with in the Artist Series lairs. The other three cards are gorgeous, but clearly the focus here is the Tutor. Buying this is a given and should be plenty profitable. I am also quite likely to get in on a few extra copies in Dump Week.

Secret Lair x Jaws: Terror of Amity Island

Jaws, Relentless Predator (n/a)

Descent into Avernus (115k, FEA $10) 

Reckless Endeavor (32k decks, no special version)

Sneak Attack (78k decks, 2XM Borderless foil $11, WOE Confetti foil $60)

Abrade (394k decks, INR Borderless Foil $2, FDN Borderless Foil $1.50, SLD Borderless foil $19)

Blood Token

This drop has the bonus pricing of $40 nonfoil/$50 rainbow foil, and that makes it a big iffy for me. I like the cards, I think Jaws is a neat commander to build around, especially because any player can trigger the ability, but none of these stand out as mega-value cards. I’d rather pick up the singles when people are dumping these early on. 

Secret Lair x The Office: Dwight’s Destiny 

Heliod, Sun-Crowned (102k decks plus 4200 as Commander, Constellation Foil $24, SLD Borderless Foil $21)

Steelshaper’s Gift (92k decks, CMM Borderless foil $10, SLD foil $12)

Swords to Plowshares (2 million decks, a million special arts)

Baral, Chief of Compliance (86k decks, plus 4100 as Commander, serialized $300, SLD foil $6, SLD foil $14)

Garruk Relentless (4500 decks, no special arts)

Reaper King (4000 decks plus 6500 as Commander, no special arts)

The cards here add up decently, but this is an odd choice, given that The Office ended twelve years ago and its peak was several years earlier. Should be an okay drop, but I don’t think the meme-ness of this will increase value like Princess Bride or Monty Python have done. Worth noting that if they preview some more Scarecrows in Lorwyn Eclipsed, I’ll likely buy a lot of very cheap Reaper Kings.

Dreaming Darkly 

Glen Elendra Archmage (75k decks, SLD foil $65)

Guardian Project (263k decks, RVR Borderless foil $54)

Roon of the Hidden Realm (2400 as card, plus 3100 as Commander, no special arts)

Soulherder (70k decks, no special arts)

Real hard to argue with a premium version of Guardian Project, plus the Archmage and the Herder. Roon is pretty weak as blinkers go, needing an extra turn, more mana, etc, but the Project is carrying the load here and should appreciate nicely. 

Secret Lair x Iron Maiden: Album Art 

Lethal Scheme (65k decks, PIP FEA $4)

Grave Titan (81k decks, PIP foil $11, SLD foil $15)

Animate Dead (322k, no special frames)

Temporal Trespass (39k decks, ACR FEA $4)

Unearth (112k, 2X2 Borderless Foil $1.50)

Lignify (54k, no special arts)

Once again, I must climb upon my soapbox and cry out for all the Zombie enthusiasts: Why isn’t Grave Titan a Zombie Giant?? There’s a decent amount of value here, and I appreciate that this is at the $30/$40 price point. This looks to be a slow gainer, although the Animate Dead is badass and popular. 

Secret Lair x Iron Maiden: Eddie Unchained 

Bruvac the Grandiloquent (45k decks, plus 6300 as Commander, RVR Borderless foil $47)

Windfall (421k decks, SLD foil $13)

Captain N’gathrod (12k decks, plus 14k as Commander, CLB FEA $70)

Nekusar, the Mindrazer (7600 decks, plus 14k as Commander, SLD $50)

Iron Maiden (9000 decks, no special version) – $9

Mindcrank (110k decks, no special version) – $11

I had no idea that the Captain was so popular, but this is a cool theme to build around. We’re getting sweet versions of cards that are already expensive, and that makes this a very good lair to buy. Mindcrank might end up as the best value here, and it’s also possible that the Iron Maiden’s special art carries it a lot further than we might expect. 

Trick or Treat 

Vito, Thorn of the Dusk Rose (185k decks, FEA $22)

Satoru Umezawa (20k as card, plus 12k as Commander, Borderless foil $3)

Voja, Jaws of the Conclave (3,000 decks, plus 18,000 as Commander, no special version)

Wilhelt, the Rotcleaver (30k decks, plus 20k as Commander, SLD Retro $95)

Liberator, Urza’s Battlethopter (89k, plus 2k as Commander, FEA $5)

Wilhelt and Vito are known and very good, plus we get a premium Voja, who wasn’t in the main set. Satoru already has a pretty amazing borderless to use, and Liberator is useful, but those first three legends should start at good prices and start trending upwards.

Secret Lair x Furby: Doo-ay Noo-lah

Distant Melody (153k, SLD $10)

Explore (300k, LTC foil $3)

Inspiring Call (263k decks, surge foil PIP $18)

Chromatic Lantern (611k, FIC foil $25, RVR Borderless $19)

Sol Ring (all of them, too many)

Secret Lair x Furby: The Gathering 

Sphere of Safety (143k, SLD foil $18)

Miscast (55k decks, no special versions)

Phyrexian Arena (553k decks, FDN Mana Foil $38, ONE FEA $3)

Tormenting Voice (75k decks, no special arts)

Tamiyo’s Safekeeping (193k, no special arts) 

Secret Lair x Furby: The OddBodies 

Hullbreaker Horror (263k, PIP Surge $44, DBL foil $60, INR Borderless $9)

Maddening Cacophony (70k decks, FEA $8)

Serum Visions (131k, SLD foils $2.50 each)

Umbris, Fear Manifest (5k as card, 7k as Commander, no special art)

Spellskite (115k, no special frame)

For these three lairs, we’re looking at $30/$40 like usual but there’s also some $60 confetti foils, which are probably the same treatment that the Enchanted Tales subset had back in Wilds of Eldraine. It’s a fun treatment, especially on cards like these, but there are still lots of confetti foils that are inexpensive. That subset also had anime art, which Magic players tend to love. I’m not sold on confetti alone being a reason to buy in.

The Sol Ring is the first one that jumps out at me, as there’s no shortage of this card at $30+, which is where I’d expect the super-cute, confetti-foiled version to land. We don’t tend to see the Rings grow in price over time, but the big unknown is the supply level. How many confetti foil versions did they make for this, is it half the number of rainbow foils? Or are they near to the same number, as what seemed to happen with the raised foils they sold for $99 not too long ago?

The rest of these cards, the art/cuteness/anti-cuteness is going to have to do a lot of heavy lifting if the price is to grow. The demand level isn’t there to make these skyrocket. One card that I’ll be eager to get cheap copies of is the Safekeeping, a card which is $3 as a nonfoil uncommon but one of the most popular ways to keep your stuff safe. That 193,000 number isn’t even inflated by being in a precon or some such; it’s just pure efficiency. 

Finally, there’s a Cryptic Command as a promo, you get one for every $200 you spend. I don’t have high expectations for this card, considering what the other promos have done and the competition from other special versions, including a gorgeous textless MPR from way back in the day. 

Given that Secret Lairs are now highly targeted by the bot networks and others trying to make the same sort of returns which Final Fantasy gave us, I expect this lair to sell out quickly, as the Spider-Man drops did. I’m not convinced of the long-term value, though, given that these are mostly mediocre cards. The Sonic Lairs are excellent examples, as aside from the drop with the Sol Ring, none of those have shot up in value. There’s a lot of buyers who are able to get at MSRP and want to resell immediately, as they can’t afford to hold products in stock. That’s how you get Lairs reselling at $35+$15 shipping, a model which gives very low profit but the turnover is constant. 

For this drop, I’m targeting two sealed drops: the Artist Series: Kieran Yanner and Iron Maiden: Eddie Unchained. Those are clearly the best value on the board, and given the velocity of releases, if you wanted to skip this drop and wait for Dump Week, it’s a defensible position. There’s only a couple of drops here screaming with value, and the rest is dependent on nostalgia, art, and those who need to collect everything. 

I can’t overlook the world in which confetti sells out fast, then FOMO kicks in, and everything else sells out relatively quickly too. The prices on the cards will then zoom way out of the realm of how good the cards are, which may end up happening for the Spider-Man drop. Those prices are high, but within expectations for the time right before Dump Week.

For this superdrop, I’m planning on looking for these cards to hit lows, in foil and nonfoil: Guardian Project, Tamiyo’s Safekeeping, Wilhelt, and of course the Tutor and most of Eddie Unchained. Not sure how low they’ll go, but those are the ones I’ll want.

If you want to discuss the things I’m buying and not buying, please feel free to stop by the ProTrader Discord and let’s discuss!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.