Here we are, for the sixth time this year, figuring out how many packs you need to open in order to get the exact card you want. 

Lucky for you, I happen to have that information, no matter the card. Want a nonfoil Sculptor’s Stronghold rare? Done. Interested in Fracture Foils? Gotcha covered. 

Even, dare I admit it, the highly-desired Facet Foils and the Headliner. 

So let’s go on a journey to the center of the math, and get to the best stuff!

There’s three slots that we’re most interested in: Two Booster Fun nonfoils, for double the chances, and the big-money, many-whammy slot with all the foil versions. 

First, the two nonfoil slots, combined for ease of calculations:

I have to admit, I keep track of the toughest pulls per set on a spreadsheet, but I don’t have a separate category for the easiest. Needing 25 packs to get a specific special-frame rare is quite low. There’s going to be a LOT of some of these, and will likely represent some excellent spec opportunities once they hit bottom. 

Now, let’s review the drop rates for most of the foils!

Aside from the Fracture Foils, this is looking like a set where things are pretty easy to open. None of these frames/arts are super-difficult to pull, and so prices ought to stay reasonable. However, this set isn’t Duskmourn. We’ve got categories to go, above and beyond the Fracture Foils.

Now let’s get into the realm where I start estimating, based on profits, likely percentages, and other circumstantial data in order to get an approximation of how difficult something is to open. Just to review, for the Facet Foils and the Headliner, here’s what Wizards’ official post says:

A facet foil rare (less than 1%) or mythic rare (less than 1%) shattered mirror card

• There are approximately 6,000 copies of each rare facet foil shattered mirror card available.
• There are approximately 3,000 copies of each mythic rare facet foil shattered mirror card available.
• Facet foil shattered mirror cards can appear in Collector Boosters of any language, but the cards will always be in English.

A serialized double rainbow foil Bloodline Recollector appears in less than 1% of Collector Boosters.

• There are 500 serialized versions of Bloodline Recollector that can appear in Collector Boosters of any language. The card will always be in English.

The facet foils plus the headliners is 54,500 cards. If that’s 0.9% of all Collector Booster packs, then we can apply a little algebra to figure out what each of those is in relation to each other. I’ll spare you the specifics here, but I worked out what the drop rate is for each of the three categories:

It’s awfully nice to get an exact number for hunting the serialized cards, but from this, we also get an overall print run of 6,050,500 Collector Booster packs, which from here on I’m going to round down to six million. 

I want to take a beat and talk in detail here about this number. First, it’s true that I’m operating off of an assumption that Wizards’ numbers are spot on. This is data that they are required to list, and while the laws governing this area are a bit murkier than digital loot boxes/gacha games, physical packs need to have posted information about what could be inside. Wizards doesn’t make it easy, either, because they give the rundown based on rarity without saying in the same line how many of each rarity there are. (They like to bounce around the article, crafty buggers that they are.)

The last time we had explicit data was the two original Lord of the Rings sets in 2023. We were given precise numbers for the serialized cards, and as a result, we know for certain what those Collector Booster print runs were: 3.3 million for the main set in the summer, and 1.5 million for the special holiday edition. Since then, we’ve never gotten clear data that allowed us to get to the same conclusions.

This is pretty close, honestly. It’s possible that Wizards did some rounding before publishing, so perhaps we need a range of values. If these categories added up to exactly 1%, the print run is 5.4 million CB packs, which would be a pretty impressive increase over the 3.3 million three years ago. If it is rounded from 0.5%, then it’s 10.9 million, a number that feels pretty ridiculous.

We feel that the 0.9% and the 6 million CBs are probably very accurate. Someone at Wizards has the exact numbers, and looked at their spreadsheet, then put together the Collecting article and didn’t think it would be a big deal to leave this gap.

Having the specifics is going to be its own other article, but this six million number really plays into a lot of things. Most relevantly, the serialized Bloodline Recollector every 12,000 packs is pretty close to the drop rate of the xxx/300 Elven Sol Rings in the first LOTR release, if you want a comparison for how often it’ll be found. Facet foils look like very difficult pulls, with the rares being in the range of the Neon Ink foils from Avatar and the mythics being slightly harder to pull than the different colors of Traveling Chocobo from Final Fantasy.

If you like to compare in-set, then the rare Facet Foils are equivalent to the Fracture Foils, and the mythics are twice as tough to pull.

I also have to point out that this set has some of the best drop rates, for everything but the Fracture Foils, Facets, and Headliner. Nothing else has a drop rate higher than 1/167 packs, as compared to the Dwarven-language foils at 1/333 packs or the 1/250 or more for many of the chase MSH cards.

As a result, I think these packs will be even more swingy than most CBs. If you hit on a Facet foil or a Fracture Foil, you’re way ahead but everything else will be pretty low in price. I always advocate that Collector Booster packs are for reselling, not opening, and that’s never been more true than now. 

So go forth with this data, make good decisions, and I hope your luck runs as hot as possible.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

We’re about done with Reality Fracture previews, and now we’re also getting the full decklists for the single deck from this set, plus the five Foundations-themed single-color decks.

I first talked about these decks in May, when the covers were previewed, and in some cases they listened to me! In others, they didn’t want to listen at all.

So let’s go over what I mentioned four months ago, and two more potential specs if you’re upgrading the decks.

For each of the decks, I’m mentioning a card. Feel free to go for the cheapest nonfoil, or sweet promo foils. The world is your oyster.

First of all, there’s a glaring oversight in these decks: not a medallion to be seen! One of the true joys of a mono-color deck is running broken stuff like this, and Medallions enable double-spell turns like little else. Whatever color you are, go get one.

Calling All Angels: 

Things I mentioned:

Battle Angels of Tyr – If you’ve never put this into play turn three off of a turn-two Giada, then you haven’t lived. As long as one of your opps has more cards than the others, more lands, or more life, you get bonuses. If two of your opponents are tied, no benefit, but that’s okay, you’re bashing faces in.

Radiant, Archangel – Being on the Reserved List, this card bounces up and down as Angels come and go. This should be one of the ups, so get in cheap.

Should get:

Emeria, the Sky Ruin – In the modern age, there’s a lot of dual-color lands with Plains as a type, but the easiest way is lots of basics. This was just in the SOS Commander decks, so cheap copies are out there. 

Starheim Unleashed – Even the borderless foil is under $5, and when a white deck does Foretell, people know it’s coming even though it’s facedown. Ridiculous card for what it does.

Keen Engineering:

Things I mentioned:

Arcum Dagsson – One of the most unfair things you can untap with, and you get to tutor from your deck. Go get yourself a Portal to Phyrexia or Akroma’s Memorial at instant speed, for the low cost of a Thopter. 

Leonardo da Vinci – The card is cheap enough that it could have been included, but the IP is a greater issue. There’s not a lot of Thopter synergies this strong.

Should get: 

Uthros, Titanic Godcore – Tolarian Academy will forever be banned in Commander. Uthros is worth the effort of putting 12 power into, believe me. 

Repurposing Bay – There are a lot of great chains you can build into a Commander deck. Personal favorite: Solemn Simulacrum into Ugin’s Nexus then Spine of Ish Sah. Start the chain with Simulacrum Synthesizer in play for real laughs.

Wretched Ranks

Things I mentioned:

Crypt Ghast – It’s not a Zombie, so it loses points, but this is one of the best things to be doing in a mono-black deck. Nirkana Revenant is a maybe, but it’s six mana.

Mikaeus, the Unhallowed – A Zombie who makes your other Zombies rise from the dead? Heck yes. Not crazy expensive either.

Should get:

Grave Pact – You’re sacrificing for value, why not pass it around? We’ve even got an incredible version that’s hitting Dump Week, with Thanos and Death. Scoop it all up!

Zombie Apocalypse – Zombies have a lot of unfair cards for their creature type, and this is one of the top ones. There’s tons of Humans that need destroying, and you get your whole team back. I’m partial to the Dark Ascension promo, but the Evil Dead version is very reasonably priced.

Reign of Dragons

Things I mentioned:

Terror of the Peaks – They put this in a Secret Lair and the card bottomed out at $20. I knew it wouldn’t be in, but every Dragon deck needs one. 

Zirilan of the Claw – Just like Radiant, Archangel, this is a Reserved List card that goes up and down over time. We’re around $10 right now, so it’ll bump up some before starting to trickle downwards again.

Should get:

Sarkhan’s Unsealing – This is a criminally underplayed card. Warstorm Surge is two more mana and works on everything, yes, but Unsealing can wipe out hordes if you play huge-power creatures. Dragons sure do fit the bill!

Desolation of Smaug – I’ve been pleased with this so far in my Ur-Dragon deck, where it’s able to cast a five-drop Dragon, but it should be good in any Dragon-themed deck.

Tramplesaurus Rex

Things I mentioned:

Vaultborn Tyrant – If you’re looking for big green value, Vaultborn is pretty high up there, giving you redundancy and life as well as cards. Overdue for a special printing, honestly.

Ghalta, Stampede Tyrant – With the amount of acceleration in the deck, this is one of the prime targets to be your first beast on the board, mainly because he comes with the rest of the team right behind him. 

Should get:

Radaghast of Rhosgobel – Radaghast is the #6 commander from The Hobbit on EDHREC, because he’s a single-color, powered-down version of one of the most broken Commander cards ever, Prophet of Kruphix. Even the fixed versions of busted cards are amazing, and Radaghast is indeed amazing.

Castle Garenbrig – If you’re in a big-green, heavy-creatures deck, why not add free mana acceleration? Note that you can use any sort of mana to jump to six, so if you start with two mana dorks, play this turn three, boom, giant beastie in play. You’re welcome. 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Here we go with another superdrop, just two weeks after the last. I want to remind everyone that if you miss a drop, you shouldn’t panic, there’s going to be another one along very soon. Spend to the level you have, and don’t feel obligated to join a queue 30 times for every drop.

This drop is all about that 80’s icon, He-Man and the Masters of the Universe. The Netflix She-Ra is ignored, as is the movie, but there’s only one card with a shot directly from the cartoon, and we’ll get to that. 

For each drop, I’m listing the EDHREC number and the other special printings of the card. Since we’ve got a Command Tower and a Sol Ring, just know there’s way too many to list. Also remember that EDHREC isn’t perfect, most people don’t upload a deck and there’s a skew towards cards that were in preconstructed Commander decks. It’s not a dealbreaker, but it is a limitation. 

I’m going to go through each Lair, and talk about just the cards, then we’ll get to the bonuses and the circumstances. 

Winota, Joiner of Forces	18.2k	FCA Borderless $2 FCA Borderless Foil $14 IKO Extended Art $14 IKO Extended Art Foil $44
Crackle with Power	129k	STX Extended Art $17 STX Extended Art Foil $34 SOA Showcase $8 SOA Showcase Foil $10 SOA Japanese Showcase $8 SOA Silver Scroll Foil $56 OTP Showcase $7 OTP Showcase Foil $10 OTP Borderless Textured Foil $64
Delina, Wild Mage	89.7k	AFR Showcase $4 AFR Showcase Foil $6
Bruenor Battlehammer	63.1k	AFR Showcase $1 AFR Showcase Foil $9
Konda’s Banner	10.1k	Pack Foil $54

There’s a lot that is appealing in this drop, but also some caveats. Winota’s special copy with awesome Amano work isn’t even half of what the original FEA price is, so I have a hard time seeing this version as $20+. This is a cool Crackle, but there’s already several to choose from. Bruenor has gone up with all the Dwarf and Equip strategies lately, and Man-At-Arms doesn’t look like a dwarf. I don’t think this will beat the $9 showcase. Konda’s Banner hasn’t had a printing since original Champions of Kamigawa, so we’re mining reprint equity here.

Overall, this looks like a drop that would linger, since it’s not stunning and it’s not filled with must-haves.

Tinybones, the Pickpocket	60.9k	OTJ Showcase $11
Tasha’s Hideous Laughter	54.4k	AFR Extended Art $4 AFR Extended Art Foil $4 SLD Borderless $12 SLD Borderless Rainbow Foil $11
Bottomless Pit	28.2k	SLD Borderless $17 SLD Borderless Foil $20
Necrogen Mists	23.8k	SLD Borderless $15 SLD Borderless Foil $15
Breach the Multiverse	166k	MOM Extended Art $12 MOM Extended Art Foil $13

Pit and Mists were both in a 2023 lair, Bad to the Bones, that was mostly focused on Tinybones, Trinket Thief. No reprints for either since then, so don’t read too deeply into those prices. I do like the Tasha’s and the Breach here, they should solidly be $10, maybe $15 as well. This is another solid, if unexciting, set of cards. 

They memed us on the Swan Song (more on that in a moment), so take your pick about which card goes with “Until We Meet Again!”

My personal conjecture: Terror. Just an image of Skeletor running away, meme accomplished.

Card Name	EDHREC Count	Special Printings
Sisay, Weatherlight Captain	18.8k	MH1 Timeshifts Alt Art Etched $4 MH1 Timeshifts Alt Art Etched Foil $7 SLD Borderless $67 SLD Borderless Foil $87
Silence	289k	SLD Borderless Foil $9 SLD Showcase $17 SLD Borderless $18 SLD Borderless $23 SLD Borderless Foil $24 SLD Borderless Foil $97
Emiel the Blessed	53.8k	2X2 Borderless $23 2X2 Borderless Foil $31 2X2 Etched $32
Hajar, Loyal Bodyguard	32.1k	BRO Extended Art $1 BRO Extended Art Foil $2
Kutzil, Malamet Exemplar	297k	LCI Showcase $2 LCI Showcase Foil $2
Sol Ring (Full Art, Textless)	8.23M	Too damn many

This is the Lair I’m most excited about buying. Kutzil is in a ton of decks as a good uncommon, and Sisay, Emiel, and Silence are all good-to-great value. That would be fine, but you’re adding in a Sol Ring that’s likely $15-$20 in with that and now we’re off to the races. Again, be cautious about the Sisay prices–this is Buttercup from the Princess Bride drop and it’s easy to lose focus. The other SL version is the left-handed one, a fun meme of a drop.

Sakashima the Impostor	78.2k	SLD Borderless $36 SLD Borderless Foil $49
Kona, Rescue Beastie	55.6k	DSK Borderless $1 DSK Borderless Foil $4
Ertai Resurrected	46.7k	DMU Showcase $1 DMU Showcase Textured Foil $2
Derevi, Empyrial Tactician	43.6k	CMR Inverted Etched $5 BLC Borderless $10 BLC Borderless Foil $14
Samut, Voice of Dissent	21.8k	SLD Borderless $42 SLD Borderless Foil $41
Tetsuo, Imperial Champion	348	Etched Foil $1

Disclaimer: Samut’s SLD printing is Inigo Montoya from the Princess Bride drop, and Sakashima’s price is from being in the City Styles 1 drop. When you discount those two numbers, the drop looks much more mediocre and much less exciting. I don’t think this is a bad drop, but I’m definitely not buying it and I think it will languish with low prices.

Card Name	EDHREC Count	Special Printings
Fortune, Loyal Steed	16.7k	OTJ Extended Art $1 OTJ Extended Art Foil $1
The Gitrog, Ravenous Ride	29.8k	OTJ Extended Art $7 OTJ Extended Art Foil $11
Throne of the God-Pharaoh	61.1k	Pack foil $12
Sword of War and Peace	59.4k	2XM Borderless $25 2XM Borderless Foil $26 SLD Borderless $18 MPS Invention Foil $199
Command Tower (Double Sided)	7.34M	Just too many

This drop is all about the Sword. War and Peace has a pretty low inclusion rate as Swords go, and the other SLD version is Cap’s shield from his drop in Spring of 2025. The other cards in this drop are unlikely to hold a high price, but the Tower might surprise us. One side is Castle Greyskull, the other Snake Mountain, so you get to declare your allegiance. When there’s only one card of value, I tend to pass and go after the card in Dump Week.

We have three bundles! The all-foil saves you zero dollars, the all-nonfoil saves you zero dollars, but the everything bundle saves you $15. That’s pretty disappointing, and doesn’t give a strong reason for buying a bundle.

The Swan Song references an early Internet meme. Enjoy the link from 15 years ago with 232 million views and AIM sound effects. Cheapest Swan Song is $10, Miku is in the $55 range for ENG foils. I’d rather go for Dump Week on these and not worry about trying to get copies of this card for the $149 spend. You’ll have your chance at sub-$10.

The biggest unknown for this Lair is the print run. Ghostbusters was not very popular, and lingered a long while. Second Breakfast sold out immediately, and the rest of the Hobbit drops took a day or more to sell out.

The one that should sell out first is She-Ra. That’s a top-notch collection, and has all the things you’d want from a Lair. UB printings sometime seem overdone, so it’s possible there’s a lot more of this one and the Winota He-Man. I can’t predict print run, but this lair is the safest bet to go up, from a financial viewpoint.

If they printed half as many of Allies and Enemies, then that will go first and start setting a very different market. Regrettably, we don’t know the relative runs for each Lair, so I am confident in which one should do well. I know that’s not always related to the print run, and so all we can do is make our best guess and be as ready as we can be.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Monday has another SL drop, this time focused on The Hobbit. We’ve got food, ghostly Hobbits, and Smaug’s treasures. Lots of fun stuff to buy, but keep in mind that there’s two more big drops happening in the next month.

September 1 brings the Perfectly Normal Superdrop, with Lo-Fi Study Beats girl, Marvel themes, and who knows what else. Two weeks after that on September 14, Masters of the Universe cards arrive! We have to plan, we have to be prepared, and now we have to plan for the one in front of us.

For now, five Hobbit-themed drops. Let’s look at prices, comparisons, and make plans. 

I’m giving you the EDHREC data, but keep in mind the two big problems with this dataset: First, because a lot of people upload a preconstructed deck as-is or with just a few changes, anything that’s been in a couple precons will have really inflated numbers. Second, only a small percentage of players bother to upload decks. The data is a useful reference point, but it is not the be-all and end-all for such data.

I’m also giving you the pricing on premium cards when it exists, even if it’s just pack foils. I’m leaving out the big outliers, like serialized and Pro Tour promos, and sticking with the versions that a new SL would be competing with.

Quantity beats everything else, but we’ve seen a lot of drops with a surprising amount of stock printed. The quantity directly impacts the speed at which it will get sold out, and how quickly the price goes wild. That quantity matters more than most of the other qualities of a drop, so we’ll see how many of each are available. Normally, I’d expect that the He Who Walks Unseen drop, being more pricey and special, would have a lower print run, but we’ve seen a couple of special drops be printed to greater amounts than expected so we’ll have to find out the fun way.

Secret Lair x The Hobbit: Second Breakfast and Beyond

Seven’s a good number for the Food decks, as those decks make many, many food tokens. This is the second food-only drop, behind the Oishii ones, and that was sold for a lower starting price. This is full price, and initially, I was pretty low on this drop. But surprisingly, there’s a lot of $4 food tokens out there, so I don’t hate this drop, but I’m still not buying it. Here I think I like the nonfoil more, just to get in cheaper, but while I don’t loathe the drop, I don’t think it’s worth it unless you’re going to have all seven tokens. 

Secret Lair x The Hobbit: Over the Edge of the Wild

Card	EDHREC Decks	Premium Version
Cloudshift	169,000	$3
Tocasia’s Welcome	160,000	$5
Stony Silence	24,300	$2
Imp’s Mischief	184,000	$30
Seize the Spoils	154,000	$1

Mischief is kind of a trap here, as the etched Commander Masters is $30 and the Planar Chaos pack foil is $40, but the Breaking News foil is under $10. The Breaking News frame is one of players’ least favorite looks for a card, but this Gollum version is going to be lucky to be a $15 foil.

This is the first premium version of Tocasia’s Welcome, so I’ll be in for this at Dump Week, but I’m surely not buying full-price Lairs for it.

Secret Lair x The Hobbit: Smaug’s Spoils

Card	EDHREC Decks	Premium Version
Fellwar Stone	2,350,000	$15
Lightning Greaves	2,340,000	$20
Liquimetal Torque	243,000	$5
Sol Ring	7,940,000	$15
Thought Vessel	2,350,000	$15

These cards have been printed a whole bunch, and this is decent. The art is good, and I think the growth should be slow but steady, but the quantity printed is key here. If it sells out first, this has a lot of potential, and there’s a whole lot of decks that would love a premium matched set of the big four staples. 

The other borderless Thought Vessels are nicely priced, as are borderless foil Fellwar Stones, so I see this as a slow gainer if it doesn’t sell out fast. 

Secret Lair x The Hobbit: Desolation

Card	EDHREC Decks	Premium Version
Defile	144,000	$5
Diabolic Intent	366,000	$95
Dread Return	235,000	$6
Mirkwood Bats	409,000	$6
Read the Bones	257,000	$3

Diabolic Intent has an Invocation and a LTR Hildebrand premium version that are both close to $100, but there’s a lot of regular frames down at $20 and a foil Final Fantasy version at $35.  You’re placing a pretty big bet on the DI to hold the value for the Lair, and if this was the first printing, I’d be enthusiastically in, but there’s a lot of this card already out there.

That said, this art style generally does well over time. So I think this is worth buying, with the hope that this is a Lair that sells out quickly. Black-and-white Lairs often take a lot of time to increase in value.  

Secret Lair x The Hobbit: He Who Walks Unseen

Card	EDHREC Decks	Premium Version
Arcane Heist	29,200	$2
Contentious Plan	67,700	$1
Curiosity	215,000	$23
Solve the Equation	147,000	$7
Windfall	522,000	$40

So this is the last Lair they spring on us, and we don’t have videos of this, but the pictures seem to indicate that we’re getting some kind of foil with a ghostly outline of Bilbo doing stuff with the Ring on. We’re leaning pretty heavily on the comboriffic Curiosity and Windfall here, and that’s tricky. Windfall has the Eddie version that’s pretty expensive from a quick-to-sell Lair and a lot of denial combos. The Ghostbusters version of Windfall is not even $15. Curiosity’s most expensive version is the Lil’ Giri printing, with a regular frame but from a convention-only Lair. The Enchanting Tales foil was printed at Uncommon, no Confetti version, and is under $5. 

I want to think that this is a very limited drop, especially because it’s $60 and foil-only, but with the higher print runs lately, especially for Universes Beyond, I’m hesitant. I’ve got many Deadpool Pool Party foils telling me to think this through. I think this is the only Lair I’m going to try hard for, mainly because the first time they do a certain look, that almost always hits. Looking at Pool Party again

Additionally, this Lair is left out of all the bundles. The Non-Foil bundle has zero discount, and the All-Foil bundle has $10 off. The Everything bundle, incredibly misnamed as it leaves out the Walks Unseen Lair, is going to be $260, which is a total of about $20 off buying one of (nearly) everything. Spending $199 gets you a sweet Arcane Signet, something I’ll definitely be picking up when they get dumped on the market.

As a result, I’m talking myself into the He Who Walks Unseen Lair, and out of the rest, I’m mainly into Smaug’s Treasures. I can’t bring myself to buy the Food, the claymation Lair has only the Welcome that I’ll go for at Dump Week, and I’ll dabble slightly in the Desolation Lair, but that might be all about Dump Week too.

I’m also trying to recover from other buys recently, so my spending is a touch constrained. If you want to discuss what I’m buying, and convince me to change my mind, come over to the ProTrader Discord and let’s chat!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.