Category Archives: Casual Fridays

Are We Buying The Back To School Superdrop?

I have to admit, this is amusing and irritating to me. By day I’m a high school teacher, so this is a deeply ironic name in late April, because school hasn’t ended! That being said, we had a nice little break since Deadpool 2 and this is a drop with some definite highs and lows. 

So let’s get into the details of the Superdrop, and see where we can add on what value is available. 

As always, I’m using EDHREC data, but remember that the numbers are skewed towards cards that have been in the preconstructed decks. A lot of people upload the decks as-is, or with a certain number of changes, and that puts a much bigger weight on some of those cards. Useful data, but be aware of its limitations. I’ve also listed the approximate price of the priciest version, just to see what these will be competing with. 

Helpfully, we’re still at the $30 nonfoil/$40 rainbow foil price point, but I fully expect Wizards to crank that up to $40/$50 as the base at some point, probably before the end of this year. 

CardEDHREC DecksMost Expensive Version
Generous Gift183,000~$10–20
Reconnaissance Mission94,000~$15–30
Radiate31,000~$20–40
Defense of the Heart114,000~$120–200
Arcane Signet1,050,000~$100–600
Sol Ring1,300,000~$70–150

Starting off with a banger of a Lair, the other Ponies cards are huge gainers. The sealed sets of Ponies: the Galloping 1 and 2 are pretty expensive at $300+ on TCGplayer, but that’s a Hasbro Convention exclusive, not a Secret Lair item. (I also love that Rainbow Dash’s mechanic is so close to Start Your Engines!)

We know the Ponies are popular, and we know there’s significant crossover with Magic players. This Sol Ring and Signet should immediately be in the $20 range each, and I won’t be shocked if they climb higher. Collectors will be all over this, and I fully expect to see price bumps on the earlier Ponies cards, even though those are silver-bordered. Having Defense of the Heart as a $20 anchor is a great touch, and this is easily my favorite Lair of the entire drop. I plan to buy as many of these as I can, and this should easily be the first one sold out. 

Thankfully, we’re at a point where the land drops come with two of each land, not just one, but it’s severely irritating that the Plains gets the whole gang and the other lands are piecemeal, zoomed out, or have nothing. It’s inconsistent, and bugs me, and turns me off from the Lair. I’ll be looking to buy the Plains on Dump Week, but otherwise I’m skipping this. 

CardEDHREC DecksMost Expensive Version
Abrupt Decay183,000~$40–80
Batwing Brume9,800~$15–30
Chance for Glory18,700~$10–20
Counterflux41,000~$15–25
Growth Spiral147,000~$5–15

One card for each Strixhaven school, but none of them are very good, rare, or profitable. I’m not really interested in these at retail, though I’ll be tempted when Dump Week rolls around. 

CardEDHREC DecksMost Expensive Version
Secret Rendezvous29,000~$10–15
Rune-Scarred Demon108,000~$25–40
Terror of the Peaks136,000~$700-$800
Communal Brewing6,200~$5–10
Rogue’s Passage377,000~$3–6

This Lair is a fascinating experiment. Dwarf Fortress is a classic game, hitting the nostalgia hard. We know that can be a profitable thing to do, and they even gave us a mega-staple combo card in Terror of the Peaks. Problem is, the art might be the worst ever on a Magic card. (A whole separate article: Worst SL Drops!) This is not just pixelated, but text that is pixelated and doesn’t look like any damn thing. If you haven’t played the game, which part of the art is the dragon? Which are the player characters? Do you even know if either of those are on the card??

We know that sometimes, polarizing art gets popular because it’s so loathed. Magic players love to be oppositional, to run the ugliest for the laughs, but this is a new level of everything. The cheapest version of Terror is around $25, and the question is, what price would I buy these copies at? Definitely nothing like retail for this drop, but during Dump Week I will be tempted at $15, but more than that and I’d rather get a more normal version.

If this sells out, heaven help us. 

CardEDHREC DecksMost Expensive Version
Counterbalance28,000~$60–90
Gitaxian Probe175,000~$40–80
Opt312,000~$10–20
Otherworldly Gaze41,000~$5–10
Baleful Strix221,000~$40–80

Probe and Strix are not the anchors you want, and this Lair has been known for a couple months now. The prices are bananas, since it was given out to just a handful of folks at a convention. That might convince people to buy the lair, since the singles are currently listed for absolutely ridiculous prices on TCGPlayer, but I’m staying far away from this. The cards are used in a lot of decks but they aren’t centerpieces or important, even. 

CardEDHREC DecksMost Expensive Version
Rule of Law89,000~$20–30
Thought Scour52,000~$15–25
Time Stretch73,000~$40–80
Stinging Study82,000~$10–20
Notion Thief94,000~$40–80

Roughly translates to ‘Stories of Kids at a Magical Academy’ but I don’t trust the translation programs. Extremely mid drop, and just nothing I want to prioritize. Time Stretch is a card that can be retargeted, if you run cards that do that sort of thing, but I don’t feel a need to buy this Lair at all. It’ll be tempting at Dump Week, because people do love anime themed cards, but the lack of excitement carries over. 

CardEDHREC DecksMost Expensive Version
Lier, Disciple of the Drowned61,000~$20–30
Bloodghast116,000~$100–150
Storm-Kiln Artist192,000~$10-15
Anhelo, the Painter15,400~$10–20

Bloodghast was an expensive card before it got printed a few times in a row, including Commander decks in Ixalan and Secrets of Strixhaven, plus the full range of prints it got in Aetherdrift. This is a neat version of Storm-Kiln Artist, but that already has a borderless foil barely into the $15 range. I’ll be delighted to buy the artist at Dump Week lows, hopefully under $5, but otherwise I am not interested at all. 

CardEDHREC DecksMost Expensive Version
Duty Beyond Death38,300~$5–10
Spell Pierce126,000~$300
Zombify24,000~$15–25
Abrade201,000~$10–15
Shared Roots7,600~$5–10

This drop had enormous potential, but they chose five exceedingly mid cards. Abrade has a ton of versions already, as does Spell Pierce, and while Shared Roots has potential, none of the other three see much play. I get that they are giving us English text on the alternate art, but damn, they could have gone a bit farther on which cards they chose. Why would I go for these, when there’s amazing Silver Scroll foils to be had? Or you could have done this for five sweet cards from the original Mystical Archive from five years ago! This Lair might sell out, but I’m doubtful about these cards and I’ll just stay away.

There’s no bonus card listed as yet, but there is bundle pricing. The nonfoil bundle saves you $15, the all-foil bundle saves you $20, and if you go for the one-of-everything, you get a $45 discount. It’s not nothing, getting one and a half nonfoil lairs for free, but when the lairs are this mediocre, It’s not worth it, especially with more Marvel on the horizon and some awesome Silver Scrolls that need buying. 

So my plan for Monday is to maximize the Friendship is Magic drop across multiple accounts, and wait on the rest. Nothing else is worth moving in on, but I want to buy foils and nonfoils alike. In Dump Week, I’ll be looking for super-cheap Terror of the Peaks and Storm-Kiln Artists, and that’s about it. This should be a drop that mostly lingers for a couple of weeks, sad to say.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Building the Other Elder Dragons of Secrets of Strixhaven

We’ve gotten a lot of the set spoiled, including the five big Dragons, and these Elder Dragons are all focused on instants and sorceries, doing different amazing things along the way.

Last week was Witherbloom, and the other four are today, with the greatest hits and things worth thinking about speculating on.

First of all, since all of these Dragons need to get on the field and stay there, we might see a bump in the generically good cards for this: Mithril Coat, Lightning Greaves, any protection spell in the right colors. It’s more mana, and you might need to wait to get it into play, but when you need your Commander, that’s how it is.

Let’s lead off with what I think is the most unique, Lorehold:

This is the most self-contained, as it both gives your spells the Miracle ability and gives you a draw trigger on each of your opponents’ turns. It’s also reasonably costed at five mana, so you might well wait till seven mana and get the first miracle trigger. With Lorehold, you want big, splashy spells that you’re reducing all the way to a mere two mana.

Scroll Rack – One of the best ways to make sure you miracle, and lacking the constant Sensei’s Divining Top checks. 

Rise of the Eldrazi – Want get bonkers? Let’s do it. We’d never pay 12 mana, but we’re all for paying two mana.

Storm Herd – Ten mana is a boatload, but it’s pretty nice to get 20+ tokens!

Call Forth the Tempest – What I love about this is that you’re going to get two more spells AND an unfair wrath effect, a theme of many of the cards I’m highlighting today.

Invincible Hymn – Lifegain by itself isn’t great, but you should get to 70-80 life with this, and that’s pretty fun.

Approach of the Second Sun – Win the game, baby!

Mass Calcify – Uneven wraths are glorious, and while this may spare some things, it’ll take care of most problems.

Volcanic Vision – If you did it once, you’ll love to do the thing again, and with the bonus of an uneven wrath effect!

Everything with cascade will be popular with Quandrix. Might not be all the way up to Apex Devastator, but that’s always super fun. Got to be careful when using cascade with X spells, but Doppelgang is worth the risk among those. 

Imoti, Celebrant of Bounty – While Quandrix requires spells from your hand, this is just all the free stuff if you start high enough.

Rishkar’s Expertise – Giving this cascade is such value that it ought to be illegal. If you happen to end up with a bigger creature after all the cascading, all the better!

Cost-reduced cards (mostly uncommon and bulk) – I like Into the Story most, but there’s a wide range of spells that cost a few mana less but cascade at the greater value. None of them are expensive, but in this deck, they will all be quite strong. 

You want instants and sorceries, you want creatures. Smells like token generation to me! The other thing you want, if you’re casting a spell twice, is a set of spells that get half the life, rounded up. Rounded down gets them to 25%, but rounded up gets them dead.

Devout Invocation – The definition of ‘win more’ as you need a few cheap creatures around worth tapping, this will take you from 5 creatures to 13 all at once. You can’t both tap for the effect and sacrifice for Casualty, but you can tap the first set of Angels to make the second set.

Perch Protection – It’s a way to protect your board, give yourself eight Birds, and put your opponents on two extra turns of beating the snot out of each other.

Army of the Damned – Yes, you can copy the spell if you flash it back. 

Token Doublers like Anointed Procession, Mondrak, etc. should go up too, and there’s a lot of great choices here. Ojer Taq is also top-tier for stuff like this. 

Vona’s Hunger – As previously mentioned, I do love some uneven board wipes, and this will do the job for three mana and one creature. 

Blood Tribute and Peer into the Abyss – A lot of mana, but how much would you pay to end the game?

Rush of Dread – What’s really great here is that one player dies, one loses their board, and one loses their hand if you have the mana to make all three happen. 

Revival // Revenge – You get to 4x your life while killing someone else. You’re already the archenemy, might as well lean into it. 

No shortage of good spells to storm, but mana is premium. We can add mana, or we can storm spells that untap lands! Ral, Storm Conduit should be high on the list of cards to include, but keep in mind that copying a spell with storm doesn’t get you a storm trigger. 

Seething Song, Rite of Flame, Pyretic Ritual, Desperate Ritual – SL versions of all these cards exist and might spike. 

High Tide – As any Legacy player will tell you, yes, these stack. 

Jeska’s Will – Always been a good card, now a terrifyingly disgusting one. 

Path of the Pyromancer – Doing this with Storm means lots of mana but also a lot of discarding. Best done till you hit the Past in Flames in your deck. 

Inner Fire and Mana Geyser – Just a great way to be an intermediate Storm card. Fuels everything you want if it’s copied even once. 

Snap – Ruby Storm players can tell you how good life is with cost reductions, but Snap is either free to be the first spell you cast, costing a net of zero mana, or get you ahead on mana if your count is higher. 

Frantic Search – Find a combo piece and get way ahead on mana! What’s not to love?

Turnabout – Remember that if this is copies, you have a chance to re-tap everything for mana, netting you all the mana you’ll ever need. 

Intellectual Offering – Cast with caution, but you can target the same players over and over, while you get a reset on your mana rocks and tons of cards. 

Solve the Equation – SLD versions are clearly the play here, it’s just a question of which art/style you like more. Copying this is glorious, whereas something like Mystical Tutor to the top of the deck and then shuffle is no good in multiples. 

Extra Turns spells – Something everyone loves to do, and if you get +2 turns, I feel the table should just concede on the spot. 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Dump Week for the Roll For Initiative Superdrop is coming!

We’re all finally getting shipping notifications on the Roll for Initiative Superdrop, and it’s been odd, seeing other drops arrive in a different pattern. Many people will get the D&D drops in hand after both the Fallout drop and the Dandan decks arrive. So as the Initiative drops arrive, we need to be ready for the lovely phenomenon of Dump Week.

Dump Week is a weird thing: There is a group of people who are connected enough to get a Secret Lair drop, even ones that sell out, but they are motivated to sell the cards immediately, as soon as things are in hand. I like to think that they wanted one specific card, and are dumping the rest, but if they waited even two weeks they’d almost always get more money for their sales than selling immediately. I would hate to think they were buying Lairs on credit cards or other debt spending.

For whatever reason, Dump Week is a thing, and we can plan for it. Let’s go over my favorite cards and some price predictions.

For each card, I’ve listed their EDHREC number, as well as the prices for other special versions of the card (if any). I will also be predicting how cheap it’ll get in Dump Week, but please remember that the lowest price is often measured in hours, maybe a whole day. Dump Week doesn’t mean it stays cheap for a week. 

Bloodletter of Aclazotz (138k decks, Borderless foil $35)

The Bloodletter has gone up and down in its life, but the key feature here is that it’s the only card of value from the Lair. This often means the undercutting is severe indeed, and the most desperate resellers will definitely get into the $25 range. It might have one or two copies go as low as $20 before it rebounds up.

Klauth, Unrivaled Ancient (2k as Commander, 55k as card, EA $30)

Klauth is an interesting case. I am a fervent player for the leather-winged demons of the skies known as Dragons, and I can tell you, Klauth gives some big big turns indeed. This was a featured card in the Commander decks of AFR back in 2021, and hasn’t been reprinted except for a tiny few copies via The List. As such, the price will start high but drop quickly to the range of $15, or maybe even $10. Understandably, I am a buyer at such a price. I expect this to settle above $20 pretty quickly.

Miirym, Sentinel Wyrm (25k as Commander, #18 over last 2 years, plus 65k as card, Showcase foil $7)

Miirym, though, no one needs to be told that this is a ridiculous card. There are three valid choices to be the Commander for your Dragon deck: The Ur-Dragon (all hail, he cheats at Magic), Tiamat (tutoring in the command zone is busted as hell) and Miirym, who was too good to be put in the Temur Dragonstorm deck last year. Miirym has a special version, but it’s the Monster Manual sort of art, which you either adore or abhor, there’s no middle ground. Clearly this Drop has the best version, but copies will be under $10, possibly $5, before going back up between $10 and $15.

Grim Hireling (137k decks, EA $20)

Never available in foil, since this was only in the two Commander products and The List, this could do some interesting things. Prosper was a very popular commander when introduced, but isn’t in the top 100 for the last two years. Treasure decks, though, get better and better and better. I expect this to go down to $15, maybe even $10, but bounce back up pretty fast.

Xorn (135k decks, Ampersand foil $30, SLD $14)

I’ve already made some money on the other SLD version of Xorn, which was available at half its current price at one point. With a second printing, I am prepared for this to get as low as $5 when Dump Week hits, and settle out around $8-$10.

Displacer Kitten (199k decks, FEA $33)

Most cards do not take off immediately, but there’s been a few that dropped on release and just started climbing. I think the Kitten will be one of those cards, because it’s part of two trillion combos, it’s already in a boatload of decks, and this is easily the best version ever. My expectation is that it starts at $25-$30 and just climbs to $50 within a week or two. After that, the sky is the limit. 

Victimize (491k decks, SPG foil $45)

Another card with a really wide appeal (some of that EDHREC number is boosted by the number of precons it’s been in) this is still a pricey card. The SPG version gives us a ceiling, and I’m thinking that the new D&D version gets down to $8 before coming back up some. It also helps that there are other, more expensive cards in the Drop, so people will be willing to sell this card for that much cheaper. 

Ancient Bronze Dragon (49k decks, Borderless foil $35) 

Unquestionably the worst member of this cycle, it’s interesting to see the green card mixed in with a black Commander. As the headliner for this Drop, at least in terms of value, I don’t think it’ll drop too much but it also can’t rise too high. I think the cheapest this will get will be around $15-$20 and even though I’m a Dragon devotee, I’d have a hard time buying in on this one once it’s $25 or higher. At that price, all copies, both this one and the previous versions, would need to increase to $45 or higher to be worth it.

Black Market (166k decks, SLD foil $16)

The other Secret Lair foil is more of the movie poster look, something that feels more out there. I don’t think this version will match it for some time, but because there are other expensive cards in this Drop, this has a chance to get very cheap. I’m watching it for it to get to the $5 range, and then creep back up to $10.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

If A Lair Is Dropped, And No One Buys It, Does It Have A Value?

It’s a tortured title, yes, but the philosophy is sound. 

We’ve got a wild situation here with the current Secret Lair pace. Last year, there was a whole series of bangers from the Secret Lair folks, and this year, we’re off to a more tepid start. Several days since it became available, and none of the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle lairs are even low stock.

What does this mean for those Lairs, and what does this mean for the SLD genre? Let’s discuss.

First of all, the big thing, the overarching concept, the idea that matters above all else: Card choice is still the most important thing in a Secret Lair. Other factors can help, and we’ll get to those, but really, it comes down to the cards themselves. The folks who are aware of Secret Lair as a website/buying platform are mostly savvy to value and demand, and in this case, we’ve sussed out that the value mostly isn’t there. These are neat, and I certainly got some personal cards to appease my inner twelve-year-old, but highly collectible these are not.

Not all reprints are the same. Master of Ceremonies, Species Specialist are the newest examples and illustrate a concept that makes a lot of sense to you, if you’ve bothered to find and read this article on this site: High price is not the same as high demand, and many SLs highlight this. A lot of cards from Commander sets have a surprising price, but only because you had to get them from a deck or they were mixed in with other tough pulls from Collector Boosters. There’s also a subset of cards whose only foils were from the promo packs, and that is pure scarcity, not power or demand. Life Insurance is one card that’s an example of this, with foils being more than 10x the price of either nonfoil copy. 

As far as we can tell, Wizards isn’t making more copies of each Secret Lair. There’s some datamining of the SL website that indicates what quantity of sales triggers a ‘Low Stock’ warning, and that’s the only sort of data we have on the relative numbers of Lairs out there. I’m not convinced on the numbers, but Avatar’s drops and more recent drops all experiencing the same slow trickle of demand has me leaning to think that the quantities are similar. 

Related, though, is that I completely believe Wizards cranked the overall quantity up from last year. The line must go up, and Secret Lairs are an easy place to make 5-10% more cards and sell them to consumers, and the margin on these cards is pretty damn disgusting. I’ll be interested to see if these more mediocre Lairs are the new standard, or perhaps they are going to slow down the pace a little.

So what happens if you bought these Lairs and now you’re looking at them while they laugh at you? Well, you can sell them around $40, and depending on your taxes, fees, and shipping, you’re going to lose $10-$20 overall. I’m amazed at people who sell Lairs at that cost, considering what they are losing. I recommend against selling at those prices, and if you’re that desperate for cash, you likely shouldn’t have bought that Lair, or any Lair, in the first place.

Your best bet is its own truism: On a long enough timeline, everything gets profitable. Most Lairs creep upwards in price, as time and collectors take their toll. Chucky, NOT A WOLF, even the Foil Full-Text Lands are up in the $70 range. There’s no guarantee about age, though. A 2020 Women’s Day lair is still just $80, but a Lair from the same year called The Path Not Traveled is selling on TCGPlayer for under $30. Demand, even small demand, adds up over time. 

There’s another factor to consider: When Lairs don’t sell out, that means there isn’t a lot of stock online. This can cause singles to go up in price, to the point that the Lair becomes awfully tempting. An excellent example of this is the still-available Dreaming Darkly. The Guardian Project at Dump Week was under $10 but now it’s close to $20. The Archmage is $14 in foil, and the Soulherder gets you over the top. The quantities available are quite low, with under 30 vendors for each card (Project has 13!) and almost no walls of copies to be had. 

I’m annoyed that I missed Dump Week on those Projects, as I knew that was the card to watch, but the $40 is still a fine deal.

Currently, 48 out of 96 individual Lairs are currently sold out – perfectly half, though that number is off by a bit because of the Prints of Darkness Lairs that were sold at different price points. There’s a wide range left, from Furby to a couple of Marvel lairs and a scattering of Fallout and D&D Lairs. I expect that sometime soon, Wizards will purge a bunch of the older Lairs from the site, as they do every so often, but they aren’t in a hurry here. All it takes is someone adding an extra Lair here or there to increase their profits just a little more. They don’t need Lairs to sell out immediately, they just need them to sell eventually. They don’t care if sellers on TCGPlayer or eBay undercut them, so long as the originals move, slowly but surely. 

Finally, let’s talk about the ones that aren’t sold out which I think are worth it and why.

A Lot to Learn (foil and nonfoil) – As previously stated, the value of Serra Ascendant is high, and this should eventually recover nicely. 

Trick or Treat (foil and nonfoil) – Already profitable given the cards inside it, so worth buying. 

The Last Ronin (foil and nonfoil) – I wrote about it before, but the Misstep alone will make this worth it over time.

Greet the Dog (foil and nonfoil) – This would be the first cat or dog themed Lair to miss, which seems pretty unlikely to me. 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.