This week, I want to share something personal with you:

This is a paper chest filled with greeting cards my wife and daughters and I have been adding to for a few years now. Anniversaries, wedding cards, kids’ birthdays, you name it.

We give this chest to my toddlers when they need an indoor activity. When we are cleaning up, I check the price tags and I cringe to think how much money people have spent on these, and conversely, how much I’ve spent on cards for others.

In Magic, there are lots of things to spend money on. Some of them are avoidable. Some aren’t. Let’s go over some of the things you should never buy again.

I want to be clear that if you’re into collecting some of these things, that’s awesome. I’m glad you’re finding a fun niche related to this game, but I’m focusing on what you need to play.

#1: Single Booster Packs

Listen, I’m with you. Holding that pack, thinking about what it could be, anticipating that sweet foil, come on, come on, jump to the rare…(crap). Feel free to fill in the name of any card worth less than a dollar for crap in the previous sentence.

Buying loose boosters at your store is at best scratching a lottery ticket. I’ve written about this before and the odds are never in your favor. Not even this premiere week. You want a card? Buy that card. Buy the playset. It’ll cost less. Even in foil.

This is even true for the uncommons you want. If you buy a box of a set, odds are that you’re not going to get four of a certain uncommon. Drove me batty when that stuff would happen.

Buying loose boosters online is even worse. Mapping packs is a thing. Weighing packs to extract foils is a thing. Peeking through the plastic at pre-Ice Age packs, to pluck out rares, is a thing. Stop buying boosters!

#2: Life pads

I get it. Writing your life total on the match slip is so very unrefined, like you’re struggling for scraps. Also, it’s a small space and you can’t take notes on what happens, cards to look out for, all sorts of things.

You know what you need? A fifty-cent spiral notebook from the grocery store. A small legal pad. Or better yet, one of the huge stack of life pads that vendors give away at big events. One Grand Prix will take care of your needs for years.

I’m not going to link them, but if you spend $12 on a paper pad that nicely bound or $30 on an e-writer, I’m going to know you’re someone with more money than sense. A life pad that can break?? Come on.

#3: Dice

I’m all for sweet dice. I’ve got a couple of Iron Dice here someplace that I can’t put in a bin with other dice because the Iron ones crack the plastic of the others.

Know what else I have? Multiple bags of plastic dice and assorted counters/beads/stones.

And this is after I used to spend a lot of energy tracking down places that would buy old spindowns! Used to be a lot of profit in that, but not anymore.

You need a few dice and a couple of stones. That’s it. Tokens are all over the place, scoop some up after a draft. People leave dice on the floor or on the table all the time. If you spend money on dice, you’re buying tiny art pieces, and that’s cool, but all you need is five D6 and you’re good for 99% of games, unless you play Commander games that get out of hand.

#4: Playmats

Now this is going to piss some of you off. You’ve got playmats that were awesome prizes, that have favored art, or just carry significance. And I’m with you: I’m quite fond of my MTGPrice playmat.

Know what I’m not so fond of? My stack of GP mats. I kept the first couple, and then I realized that I was never going to use them, and I started selling them at the events, which has been great for me. Haven’t regretted a moment of it.

Is there a market where people buy and sell these mats? Absolutely. The art on a mat can make a big difference to its value, such as the two GP Vegas mats.

I’m all for buying the mat you want. And that’s it.

Every extra mat you have is just something you need to store and/or move. Don’t keep them. I’ve yet to see one rip from just being used, even if you fold it instead of roll it.

#5: Fancy deck boxes

I appreciate the art and craftsmanship of Etsy, I really do. There are some amazingly awesome things that you can get for dice, or decks, or even your whole cube.

I have to tell you, I’m hard on my Magic stuff. Boxes get put in the backpack, other things land on them, I squish it when I don’t take off my backpack when sitting on the bus…and so on. Perhaps you’re someone who takes better care of your things than I do, and if you sit down with me, unfold three trays and have everything immaculately organized, I might ask how much it was.

Mostly, you’ll be like the rest of us and have a stack of different things and be mostly put together, and be able to do so for far less money. Deck boxes are useful but replaceable for cheap, on the rare instances that they break. These are also often giveaways at a GP or other event, and if you want to personalize them, I suggest a layer of primer first.

 

 

Look, I’m not trying to make you feel bad about stuff you’ve bought that brings you joy. You’ll notice I left off binders and backpacks/bags from this list, because you’ll find what you need quite easily. Sleeves as well–I turn mine over frequently.

What I want to stop you from doing is spending money on stuff you don’t need to spend money on. Spend your money on all sorts of cards, just don’t go buying accessories that aren’t as needed.

Let’s talk about rares, baby!

Well, let’s talk about some of the rares. There’s a few worth discussing but mostly, like in all sets, the rares are forgotten except when it’s time to open your draft packs. That’s the only time you’re hoping for something like a Bygone Bishop.

These are prices from TCG preorders, and I’m predicting what the prices will be when Kaladesh arrives. Keep in mind that an old piece of advice rings true this weekend: Trade everything you open. Prices are at maximum this weekend, so even your sweet foil mythic is going to go down. If you opened a foil Olivia, Mobilized for War and traded it opening weekend, that was $30 or so, now at $15. If you want to lock in value, get rid of it all immediately this weekend.

Bruna, the Fading Light ($1.50) – So this is a rare, whereas the other half is a mythic. I’m not sure why that was done but it means that one half of the Meld creature is much more common than the other, and this is a seven drop with not a lot of appeal outside of certain Commander decks. Getting the creature back immediately is good, though. I think this stays around $2, but just like Gisela, I think this being the Meld makes the foil highly sought after, and the foils will be between $15-$20.

Cryptbreaker ($2.50) – I have to admit, I’m super stoked about this card. There’s a lot of Zombies who don’t mind being in the graveyard, but the second ability is really fantastic. The casual appeal is why this card is so high right now, and that will taper down to the $1 range, but I would expect the foils to be in the $5-$7 range.

Distended Mindbender ($3) – I am hesitant about the Emerge mechanic, though it’s a fair way to cheat on mana costs. This offers the potential of discarding two cards and giving you a 5/5, but you already sacrificed a real card to get the 5/5. It’s possible that Kaladesh or the set after offer some amazing value to sacrifice, but until then, I’m skeptical. Bulk.

Eldritch Evolution ($8) – The hype machine is off and running for this card. I think that the price memory will keep this high, even as the number of decks playing it isn’t too numerous. You have to find something gamebreaking with the card, because it is straight card disadvantage. You’re not going to grind people out with this as we used to with Birthing Pod, you’re going to search up a gamewinner. I’ve seen a lot of lists trying to utilize this in many ways, but it’s notable that the preorder price has dropped $2 in the last week. I think this struggles to be a $5 card until it gets broken and then $15 seems easy. Foils are preselling for $28 and that’s right in line with what I would expect after the card breaks a Pro Tour metagame.

Hanweir Garrison ($2.50) – This is intriguing indeed. There are people comparing this to Goblin Rabblemaster, and that’s not unfair. What really makes it shine is how easily this plays with Thalia’s Lieutenant, and please note these tokens don’t go away. I think this price stays right about where it is, and might even go up during the next block.

Spell Queller ($7.50) – This is a hard price for an in-print rare to maintain, even one from a small set. I won’t be surprised to see it dip down to $5 and then climb back up to $10 if it sees lots of play. I have to admit that I’m leery at this price, and I want to see it do well before I move in on it. It’s powerful but it’s two colors, conditional, but it will absolutely win some games. I like what this does to Collected Company mirror matches!

Splendid Reclamation ($2.50) – The foils are preselling for $14 or more, and that’s a huge multiplier. I suspect that is Commander tech, and not necessarily something Modern cares about. I’ve looked, and seen a few murmurs that Legacy Lands decks love this card, but again, I would be leery of buying just on hype. Day’s Undoing for $20+ anyone?

Thalia, Heretic Cathar ($6.50) – Speaking of the CoCo mirror match! If you’ve ever played with Imposing Sovereign or the like, you know making creatures come in tapped is a very powerful ability. It puts them a full turn behind, and in a properly aggressive deck, that’s an enormous tempo play. She is the buy-a-box promo, but as we have seen with cards like Rabblemaster and Sylvan Caryatid, that doesn’t mean cheap. Modern and Legacy decks are absolutely going to try her out, and all this put together means I would expect her price to tick upward to $8 or so, and remain there for a while. When she rotates out in a year and a half, I’m going to want to get a lot of her to store away, because she’s also an amazing Commander card.

While I could take some time and reflect on all the buyout silliness, it’s time to talk about the mythics of the new set. Small-set mythics have a lot of potential, historically, but for almost all of these, the prices are going to go down.

Picking out that one riser is tricky. Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy is the recent example that tells people ‘don’t miss out!’ but I remain content to sell them all immediately and lock in my value.

One thing I want to point out: not only does this set get opened half as much as Shadows over Innistrad, it’s also going to be overshadowed by Conspiracy 2 in late August. I think that there’s a certain number of drafts that would have been EMN-EMN-SOI, but are instead triple Take the Crown, so the numbers in circulation are going to be lower. Not hugely lower, but lower nonetheless.

My predictions are for what the card’s value will be when Kaladesh comes out at the end of September.

White

Deploy the Gatewatch ($4) – It’s hard to argue with what this offers in the right deck. I’ll leave the probability analysis to others.  What I think is that $4 is just right for this off the top, and it ends up being bulk. Foils are intriguing, though, and if they dip below $7 I’m going to go after them for a long-term hold.

Gisela, the Broken Blade ($27) – This price is absolutely too high right now and she’s got a comparison in Archangel Avacyn that just makes her look bad. She’s a strong card, a mini-Baneslayer, but I think she settles in around $10 by the time Kaladesh rolls out. I also don’t see many decks that are going to run her instead of the Archangel, even as she costs less than her boss.

Notably, though, this is a mythic Meld card. I think that the foils on this are going to see a serious multiplier as people chase their own shiny B.F.M. and I will be surprised if the foils go below $50 at any point.

Black

Liliana, the Last Hope ($23) – Now this…this is tempting. Three mana planeswalkers tend to be at least played, and there are some good things going on here. Her plus ability is better than the flipped Jace, Telepath Unbound’s plus. Yes, read it again. That’s until your next turn, not until end of turn as we are used to. Her minus gets you something you already want, or maybe an upgrade if you flip over a more appealing target. Her ultimate is good for, at the minimum, two Zombies per turn, and you’ll get the first two right away.

Liliana is only pick to go up. I think she finds multiple homes and stays between $20 and $30, with real potential to jump very high right away.

Tree of Perdition ($5) – Oh you lovely people that are going to jam this in Standard with Triskadekaphobia. I commend you. I value you, and I want to see photos all over Twitter of this happening. It’s janky as janky can be, and this card is going to be higher than bulk, but only just.

Green

Ishkanah, Grafwidow ($3) – I’m not sure who was clamoring for the Legendary Spider, but congratulations, those people! You’ve given us another bulk mythic. I don’t get why Spider Spawning and Nyx Weaver outrank the three spiders with red in their costs, but whatever.

Blue

Mind’s Dilation ($3) – Seven mana. Does nothing the turn you play it. Wild variance in effect. Possible for your opponents to outmaneuver it by doing nothing or manipulating their library.

All that adds up to a bulk mythic and Commander gold! I can’t wait to play it and get slaughtered for cackling evilly.

Red

Nahiri’s Wrath ($6) – This cannot hit players. I repeat, this cannot hit players. Therefore, at best, it’s a bad removal spell, costing you at least one more card than you’re killing. Potentially, this goes in decks that want to dump their hand, but you have to do so much here. Bulk mythic.

Mirrorwing Dragon ($5) – This is a sneaky-great card. It’s got the ability to spread your good spells out to your whole team, and will spread your opponent’s kill spells to their whole team. It’s got potential, but I think $5 is where it stays.

Colorless

Emrakul, the Promised End ($20) – In a deck that can mill itself effectively, I can see this costing 9 or 8 mana, and that’s when this card is impressive as hell. She is indeed what we were promised, a fixed version that is a real beating. Who cares that they get to take a turn after you use a turn for them, because you cast spells badly, made crummy attacks, and messed with everything.

I think Emrakul doesn’t drop far, maybe trailing down to $15, but the casual demand for her is never going to let the price fall too far. Foils are going to be crushing wallets all over, likely $60+ for the duration.

Decimator of the Provinces ($8) – It’s no Craterhoof Behemoth. It’s going to have the same problem that Overwhelm did: you want all your creatures to be in play and attacking! The Emerge cost means that it’s got a green color identity for Commander, and as such, only some decks can play it. I think this ends up near-bulk, at $3 or so.

Multicolor

Tamiyo, Field Researcher ($26) – Three-color planeswalkers have a rough history. Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker was powerful enough, and could be run alongside Cruel Ultimatum, but was never pricey. Sarkhan Unbroken is awesome, with very good abilities, and sees no play. Tamiyo defends herself well, but the plus ability requires creature combat. Right now, there’s a Bant Humans deck that is set up with the right manabase, but would it be worth it to jam a couple of these and make Collected Company that much worse? I’m doubtful, and I think she ends up at $10.

Grim Flayer ($14) – I think this card is sweet, but it’s got the misfortune of being in the same Standard as Sylvan Advocate. There’s going to be a period where this is legal and the Advocate isn’t, but the Flayer is just so outclassed. This isn’t going to see heavy play, and I’ll be watching to see if this goes too low. My prediction is $5-$7.

Gisa and Geralf ($6) – This is the type of card that is mythic only to save us from awful games of Limited. This is tough to beat in sealed or draft, with a constant flow of card advantage. Relentless Dead has seen a big spike lately, and I think this is why. G&G offer a lot of potential in casual decks as well, and you can’t overlook repeated abilities like this. Financially, though, I think this is never going to be too valuable, with regulars likely a dollar and foils pushing $10, because people love Zombies!

Ulrich of the Krallenhorde ($6) – Angels and saints preserve us, we finally got the Werewolf legend that Commander players have been pining for since original Innistrad. Ulrich is underwhelming to me, though, and I’m not alone. You get a one-turn bonus to power and toughness on the front, and conditional removal on the back. I suppose there will be turn cycles where he flips back and forth, but I think Huntmaster of the Fells is neck and neck here. I expect that this is going to be very cheap, around $2, but the foils will be up to $10-$15 from those who are dying to jam every Werewolf into a hundred-card deck.