Category Archives: Casual Fridays

Early Movement on Aetherdrift Card Prices

It’s really, really easy to get caught up in ‘the next thing’ because of Wizards of the Coast’s obsession with keeping excitement high. Granted, there’s a vested interest in keeping up with what’s coming out and what’s happening, because there’s profit opportunities such as the recent spike in Commander’s banned list. There’s no end of new events, streams, articles, and ways for Wizards to drum up interest in upcoming sets. 

However, we can’t lose sight of the here and now, which means Aetherdrift! The set only came out a week ago, and there’s a lot of movement on prices. Not all of it is downwards, either, so let’s get into it and see what opportunities exist right now, and which hint at future ones. 

All data is as of Thursday night, 2/20, for the regular frame nonfoil.

Ketramose, the New Dawn (Lowest sale was $15, Highest $75, currently $48) – Ketramose is getting all of the attention from the set, especially for its strength in Modern, where there’s a wide assortment of ways to exile things for benefit. Some of those are aggressive (Phelia) and some are reactive (Force of Negation) but all of them now come with a cantrip once Ketramose is in play. What’s additionally wild is how Path to Exile now comes with a card to draw as well!

Ketramose will start showing up in some lists in the next couple of weeks, and there’s a good chance that we see the card pop back up above $60. People aren’t dipping a toe in with this card, they are going full-on with the complete playset in a deck, and for a mythic, buying four at a time can really impact the supply.

Monument to Endurance (L: $4, H: $15, C: $11) – This is one of the top inclusions from EDHREC, not least because there are two Zombie commanders who want to discard cards, and Varina has also been newly popular. I have a hard time thinking that this price stays high, as it’s just a rare and people are getting one at a time. It takes tremendous demand to keep an in-print rare above $10, and I’m doubtful about this card in the short term.

Radiant Lotus (L: $13, H: $70, C: $16) – We all know that this is a Lotus, and making three mana at a time, but the six mana and the need for sacrifice is a real cost. I’m not surprised that it’s fallen this far, but clearly it’s got farther to fall until the combos are found. I don’t doubt that this card can be broken, but we’ve got to keep in mind that this isn’t fast mana, it’s a boatload of mana after you’ve found a way to get a six-mana rock into play. I don’t think it’ll go below $10, but the premium copies with truly gorgeous art might stay expensive just for the aesthetics. 

Oildeep Gearhulk (L: $3, H: $11, C: $5) – What a lot of people are overlooking about this card is that it shares the Vendilion Clique ability of looking at the hand, and then you get to decide if you need to get rid of a card from your opponent’s hand. It’s a tough mana cost, and it’s very dangerous to add this card to Standard when there’s already a Dimir self-bounce deck running around. It’s a mythic, and that helps its price, but this will never be a four-of card and so I expect the price to stabilize between $5 and $10.

The Aetherspark (L: $25, H: $110, C: $34) – It’s a crazy card with an impressive type line, but that novelty was responsible for lots of hype and a too-high price. This really needs to come down under $20, and likely to the $15 range. A regular planeswalker with these abilities (+1: add a counter to a critter, -5: Draw two, -10: Add ten mana) would be pretty middling for what Commander decks what to do. There’s a lot less work that can go into a win condition, and once people realize that, the price will trickle downwards. It might pop up if something turns out to be a fun combo, but if the point of the combo is adding mana, it might not do too much. 

Loot, the Pathfinder (L: $1.50, H: $30, C: $3) – I’ve seen people building decks around Loot and Agatha’s Soul Cauldron, a combo that makes my heart sing. ASC is already super pricey because of the Modern combos that it helps to reinforce, but Loot is an accessory, not a focus. Does great things, powerful things, and there’s combos in Standard with Sleep-Cursed Faerie, but we’re going to need to see results before we start buying. 

Riptide Gearhulk (L: $5, H: $10, C: $10) – It’s pretty evil that this is legal in Standard alongside Elesh Norn, Mother of Machines. If someone double-triggers this on you, then your third and fourth turns from now are locked in. It’s also a really quick clock, smashing for six or 8 depending on the cantrips in your hand when you attack. Additionally, everything that cares about having two power, like Enduring Innocence, will gladly welcome the card. Ten bucks feels about right, but the rest of the set and the speed of undercutting might lower the price slowly over time. 

The Verges (range in prices, mostly $4-$7 now from $10 heights) – I like these to travel back upwards into the $10 or even $15 range before they rotate out of Standard. It’s really, REALLY powerful to have dual lands that come into play untapped, and considering that these are best friends with the Surveil lands from MKM, we’re going to see a lot of Surveil/Verge manabases for all of 2025 and 2026. 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

The Definitive Tier List for Potential Commander Unbannings

Aetherdrift is on sale today, and let’s be honest, Ketramose is lighting up all sorts of cards. BW Blink is a big deck in Modern right now, and it’s about to get a powerful draw engine. Psychic Frog plus Darkblast and Ketramose is a deadly combo that we’re going to see a lot of as well. It’s $50, and we’re going to see that price go higher this weekend and hopefully it comes down to something reasonable. 

It’s not going to be soon, though, because people are buying the card four at a time…and it’s worthwhile to do that. It might come down if the meta shifts, but I expect Ketramose to hit $75 in the next week, and after that, supply should bring that back down. Heaven help us if there’s a Standard deck as well as the Modern implications.

However, from a MTG Finance perspective, the biggest news of the week was Commander-related. We got an explanation of the Commander Brackets system, a list of Game Changer cards, but most importantly, Gavin Verhey saying that sometime in April, there will be some cards unbanned in Commander. 

Frankly, there’s already been a lot of buying around this potential news, and all sorts of speculation online about which cards he’s referring to. I’m here to give you the definitive list of what is and isn’t getting unbanned, now that Wizards runs the banned list.

We’re going to put this in tiers, from the zero-chance (F tier) to the ‘absolutely going to happen sometime’ (S tier). For each, I’m going to put down the current cheapest price, and what that price could go to. More premium versions will of course go wild too. I’m presuming that the cards will not get a reprint to go with the unbanning, and if that happens, watch out.

S-Tier: Will Get Unbanned 

  • Jeweled Lotus ($76, but was $40 before the announcement)
  • Dockside Extortionist ($37, was $12)
  • Mana Crypt ($80, was $45)
  • Coalition Victory ($3)

These are the easy picks. The three bannings that triggered the end of the Commander Rules Committee era are all cards that were fine until the RC decided this specific set of fast mana was a problem. Wizards is happy to reprint these cards, mark them as Game Changers, and move on. I don’t think they will all get reprinted immediately, or even at the same time, but eventually yes, they are going to be legal again. Eventually.

I bought four borderless foil Jeweled Lotus when I heard about the announcement, but I should have moved on Dockside. Legit spec targets, but I’ve no idea when it will happen.

A-Tier: I Have Slight Doubts, But Likely Eventually

  • Biorhythm ($6)
  • Golos, Tireless Pilgrim ($2)
  • Iona, Shield of Emeria ($4)
  • Sylvan Primordial ($2)
  • Flash ($1.50)

These five cards are powerful and potentially really annoying, but there’s a lot to be said for each of these being totally fine. Golos could become the default ‘five color good stuff’ deck and with the land find it’s possible to recast it almost every turn. Is that more or less annoying than other cards? Iona hoses one color (you should name blue) but the other colors make for a fun political subgame. Primordial is capable of killing three permanents, and finding you forests, but it’s not problematic until you flicker/reanimate/etc and isn’t that every damn card in Commander? Same thing with Flash–puts a card into play, instantly sacrifices it. We’ve got a range of such effects already, and while this is cheaper, it’s got a good chance to see an unbanning and try it at high power levels.

I could defend you buying these, especially at these low prices, but I wouldn’t be in super deep.

B-Tier: Make Your Case, But I Lean No

  • Braids, Cabal Minion (bulk)
  • Emrakul, the Aeons Torn ($20)
  • Hullbreacher ($3)
  • Trade Secrets ($1)

I think that these all represent cards that are unfun in most settings, and should stay banned. They are also ridiculously powerful, and since we’re legislating in the high power brackets of Commander, I think people will make a case. I definitely would not spec on any of these cards. 

C-Tier: Reserved List Conspiracy Brain

  • Fastbond ($30)
  • Library of Alexandria ($1,300)
  • Recurring Nightmare ($60)
  • Rofellos, Llanowar Emissary ($42)
  • Yawgmoth’s Bargain ($22)

Hot take: I don’t think these are so much more game-breaking that they can’t be considered for unbanning, but they won’t be unbanned because they are on the Reserved List and therefore Wizards cannot make any money off of the unbanning. It is super easy to imagine Gavin calling up someone at WotC and saying, ‘when’s a good time for us print <name of card> so we can unban it at the same time?’ These are enormously powerful cards, worthy of being banned, but less powerful than some other unbanned cards. 

D-Tier: Enormously, Incredibly, Boringly Unfun and 95% Never Unbanned

  • Erayo, Soratami Ascendant ($6)
  • Gifts Ungiven (50¢)
  • Griselbrand ($3)
  • Leovold, Emissary of Trest ($2)
  • Limited Resources ($3)
  • Lutri, the Spellchaser (bulk)
  • Nadu, Winged Wisdom (50¢)
  • Panoptic Mirror ($8)
  • Paradox Engine ($7)
  • Primeval Titan ($8)
  • Prophet of Kruphix ($1)
  • Sundering Titan (bulk)
  • Sway of the Stars ($3)
  • Tinker ($1)
  • Tolarian Academy ($200)
  • Upheaval (bulk)

A lot of these cards are just repetitive play patterns, over and over again. Are there plenty of Commander decks built the same way? You betcha, it’s the main format for people who love to spin their wheels over and over and yet accomplish nothing. With these cards, it isn’t always about the instant win, no, you should be so lucky as someone demonstrating their Gifts Ungiven for a combo, or the Paradox Engine loop twice and then table is scooping. It’s the non-deterministic Nadu combo for ten minutes, it’s a flipped Erayo from someone who also has four counters in hand, just in case. It’s Prophet basically taking four turns every cycle while you do one. Good riddance to all of these.

F-Tier: Why Are You Even Asking?

  • Ancestral Recall
  • Balance
  • Black Lotus
  • Chaos Orb
  • Channel
  • Falling Star
  • Karakas
  • Mox Emerald
  • Mox Jet
  • Mox Pearl
  • Mox Ruby
  • Mox Sapphire
  • Shahrazad
  • Time Vault
  • Time Walk

Name your reason, these are staying banned. I love the idea of the ‘dexterity’ cards like Orb and Star, but having seen people argue about Orb in Cube drafts, heaven help us at regular Commander games. These aren’t getting unbanned ever, no need to go over prices here.

If you disagree with these tiers, please, let me know in the comments, on social media, or preferably, in the ProTrader Discord! I’m happy to talk about the reasons I ranked them this way.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

The Mana Math of Aetherdrift

Welcome back to a new set, and a new group of calculations. Aetherdrift has a new type of booster for us to unpack, a single serialized card, and another batch of sweet, sweet, Fracture Foils. 

Let’s get into what you can open and what you might get when you crack one of these packs. 

Box Toppers are back! These are two-card packs, found in Play Booster boxes, Collector Booster boxes, and the Finish Line bundles. You’re going to get one of ten different lands (75% driver’s perspective, 25% full-art panorama, and one of 84 different rares or 43 mythics, a total of 127 options.

It’s possible that the panorama foils might become expensive down the line, but I’ve found that basics are no longer worth it, generally speaking. There’s just too many sweet options, and each new awesome one makes the others harder to go up in price. We get occasional exceptions, but even things like the Oil-Slick lands have taken forever to go up a buck or two. Just better to put your money someplace else.

The First-Place Foils have the distinction of looking like terrible Pokemon cards, thanks to the yellow outline on the posted photos, but the videos Wizards posted look pretty cool, so I’ll forgive them. The second slot of a Box Topper pack has a lot of options, which calls for a table: 

Right away, I want you to see that 7 of 10 packs have a regular rare card. We’re already off to a killer start with that, but the rates go up from there. The First-Place Foil version of the Special Guests is a mega-rare pull, being at 714 of these packs to get a single copy. You get ONE Box Topper pack per box (Play, Collector, or Finish Line) so please, if you open something good make sure you get a good price.

I’ll be curious to see if folks realize what difficult pulls these particular foils are, there may well be some underpricing going on early.

Let’s get to the nonfoils, of which there are two slots, so we have an extra column for the doubling up. 

Note: Wizards doesn’t want to just say how many of each treatment there are in an easy way, spreading out the information over the whole page, and if I find new ones revealed on Jan. 31 or later, I’ll update these numbers. 

The nonfoil special versions are about right, providing some solid numbers for those who don’t like the shiny, warping cards. Especially with two slots, there will be plenty of these to go around. 

Now, for the foil slot at the end of the pack.

Yup, you’re reading that right. Fracture Foils at 1500/3000 packs is in line with the last two sets. They’ve clearly got a ratio they like, and going by the prices of most Fracture Foils, the players agree. 

Please remember that you’re 1/1000 to get any Fracture Foil, but because two-thirds of those are English-language and one-third is Japanese-language, that’s where the 1500 and 3000 come from. 

What jumps out at me from these tables is the Special Guests. That’s been a rare enough thing in the Collector Boosters, but considering that it takes 714 Box Topper packs to get a particular First-Place SPG, but only 238 Collector Boosters, I’ll be keeping an eye on the relative prices of those cards. If those are close to the same price, it would be a data point about how many boxes (and Finish Line boxes) are sold compared to how many Collector Booster packs are opened. It’s a little scary that 238 x 3 is exactly 714, and that made me go back and check my assorted math. 

The rest of it is in line with previous sets, so any big spikes or dips will be due to demand, not a change in collation. Please notice that the Mana Foil is no longer there, which was a good midway between the Borderless art and the Japan Showcases.

Now, to talk about the serialized Aetherspark. Wizards is probably aware that they made a mistake when they gave us precise odds for serialized cards, as in Lord of the Rings, because that let us know what the total number in circulation was, a data point that they haven’t really replicated.

Here’s a table for your odds, varying the number of packs printed:

The $120 is an estimate of what the distributors pay for the average Collector Booster box, and that’s the sales that Wizards cares about. Again, these are estimates, and if I get better data I can give a more precise number, but we think that you’ve got to open something like 6,000 packs to get a serialized Aetherspark. 

Remember, statistics are an overall view. There will undoubtedly be people who open two serialized Aethersparks within 500 boosters, and others who open 10,000 Collector Boosters and get none. 

I hope this math is helpful for you, and helps in your buying and opening decisions. If you want to talk about my methods or errors, please reach out to me on Twitter, Bluesky, or in the ProTrader Discord.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Innistrad Remastered Is Revealed!

Innistrad Remastered has been fully revealed, and the set is a combination of amazing frames, needed reprints, and underwhelming choices. We’ve been semi-promised no Masters/Remastered sets after this for a while, but nothing is locked in. Wizards is free to do what they want, even if there was no particular demand for most of these cards, they really wanted to do the Dominaria, the Ravnica, and now the Innistrad Remastered.

Wizards made some choices here, and while I would have made different ones, I’m not in charge. So let’s review what is going on, and we can make some choices about this set, as well as some plans. 

Let’s start with my favorite thing about this set: The Borderless Movie Poster Frames.

These are gorgeous and then some, and while some of these treatments have languished after Secret Lair printings, the layout and design here is top-notch. These range from popular Commander cards (Cathars’ Crusade at 128k decks on EDHREC) to Modern archetypes (Through the Breach) and even Griselbrand, who gets reanimated now and then. 

What I don’t like here is how often some of these have gotten reprints. Avacyn has a borderless foil from Double Masters. Gitrog has a Judge Foil and a Secret Lair version. Griselbrand has had a couple of special printings despite being banned early on in his Commander career. It’s one thing to cash in on reprint equity, but they are hitting these cards hard. 

Also, as a personal note, I tend to concede when the Crusade comes down. I anticipate death comes soon after, but it’s the ten minutes of adding counters I can’t stand. Play it on Arena or MTGO sure, but if it’s not automatic, I no longer care. 

There are other Borderless cards in the set, but I feel it’s important to go over the math on those and the Movie Posters too.

Nonfoil cards: 

Foil cards:

Like I said, compared to other recent sets, INR has relatively easy pulls. You need to open ten times the packs needed to get a Fracture Foil compared to a Movie Poster!

The only things harder to pull than a Movie card are the six mythics: Borderless Temporal Mastery, Borderless Cultivator Colossus, Borderless Sorin, Imperious Bloodlord, (who is banned in Pioneer), Equinox Arlinn Kord, and Fang frames for Edgar Markov and Bloodline Keeper. 

It’s also worth mentioning that one of the most popular casual cards in the set is Infernal Grasp, and we can bring up that math too: 2.5% to get a foil borderless, 5% to get a nonfoil. That’s 1/40 and 1/20 chances at the Infernal Grasp, which is in 185k Commander decks online.

The Retro Frame cards in this set are neat, but that treatment is a bit underwhelming. If the card is already popular, that’s good, but I have a hard time seeing most of the INR cards holding a price. For comparison, in Ravnica Remastered, the only retro frame nonfoils with a price above $10 are the ten shocklands, Cyclonic Rift, and Bruvac the Grandiloquent. I do not have high hopes for INR’s retro foils.

Underwhelming is really the keyword for a lot of this set. For instance, the slowlands from MID and VOW are mega-popular in Commander, but those got no special treatment at all. Just regular and foil, not even a retro frame. Sure, they already had sweet versions in the original set and in Double Feature, but if you’re a reprint set…use your reprints!

These packs are going to be tremendously swingy, as several people on the ProTrader Discord have pointed out. Movie Poster Emrakul in foil will be an impressively expensive card, but that same slot might get you a showcase Arilinn Kord for $5. I always advocate against buying single packs and opening them, even with the dopamine high that you get. This set is going to be one of the strongest examples of the phenomenon, given that the packs are more expensive than usual.

It’s well known that Ravnica Remastered did not sell up to its expectations. Innistrad Remastered has pretty low expectations, and seems to be selling decently. We’ll see what these prices do, but around the beginning of summer, I’ll be on the lookout for a few specific cards:

Foil Borderless Rooftop Storm: As a Zombie enthusiast, this enchantment is one of the best things you can be doing. I want a big stack of these for when Zombies have their time in the sun again.

The Slowlands: These were expensive during their heyday in Standard, and the premium versions still are. I’d be looking to get a few of each when the regular nonfoil is at its lowest price, just for the Commander appeal.

Movie Poster Hermit Druid: The combos are many, and they are deadly. This will get impressively cheap in the regular frame, but considering the combo players, I’ll want a few of these in reserve. 

Foil Borderless Conjurer’s Closet: Commander players love a good flicker, putting this in 100k decks. This is clearly the best version, and should get impressively cheap.

Finally, I want to go over a few Vampire specs that have potential right now. We saw Dragon cards spike somewhat when The Ur-Dragon was made cheap, and we’re about to see that with Edgar Markov, one of the top ten all-time Commanders. 

Edgar, Charmed Groom – I especially like the Dracula version here, because he’s a lord, he makes tokens, and he’s tough to kill. Should be one of the first Vampires to pop off as people get their hands on a cheap copy of Edgar Markov and get to building.

Malakir Bloodwitch – I own a few foils from before VOW was printed, and I bought in at much too high a price. I’ve played enough Vampire decks to know how good this effect is, and if you can copy it, even better. What should Gray Merchant have all the fun?

Vampire Nocturnus – A big throwback, this card is unfairly fun even if it’s only active something like 40% of the time. 

Elenda, the Dusk Rose – There’s more than one special version to choose from, but you’d have to have an odd build of a deck to leave her out. Grab what’s cheap while it’s cheap.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.