Category Archives: Casual Fridays

Casual Fridays

Who Lives In A Pineapple Under The Sea?

The SpongBob SquarePants Secret Lair is upon us, faster than anyone was anticipating. It goes on sale March 24 at 9 am PST, 12pm EST, or 4 pm Greenwich Mean Time, if that’s your zone. Three drops, and the bonus cards are as yet unknown., but the speculation is rampant and hilarious.

This is a big deal. SpongeBob has more than 300 episodes, has been on since 2010, and that’s not taking into account movies, specials, and the incredible amount of merchandise available under this brand.

So let’s dive to the deck, flop like a fish, and decide if we’re buying.

I want to start with an overview of the specific cards. Sometimes, the cards don’t matter at all, but it’s easier when the cards are at least good. (See: Miku’s first drop, Sakura Superstar) For each drop, I want to list the EDHREC numbers, the number and type of special printings, and the current price of the foil specials (if any). Those are the comparisons most helpful for something like this, although the IP goes a long way. It’s also notable that these three drops are $30 nonfoil and $40 foil, where others have been $40/$50. 

SpongeBob SquarePants: Legends of Bikini Bottom

SpongeBob SquarePants as Jodah the Unifier

EDHREC: 18k as commander (#19 last two years), 16k decks

Special Printings: Showcase foil ($4) and Showcase Textured foil ($10)

This is glorious in so many ways. Spongebob is a friendly dude, happy-go-lucky, and loves to gather his friends together. Jodah does exactly that! The Showcase version is interesting, with the stained glass look of the card, but this rainbow, big eyed, giant smile is pretty hilarious when compared with the wrecking ball that Jodah represents on the board. Win. 

Patrick Star as Barktooth Warbeard

EDHREC: <500 total 

Special Printings: none, only reprint since Legends

This having the ‘I nailed a board to my head somehow’ meme as the art is a great choice. Are there starfish in Magic that have more abilities? Absolutely. But Patrick is dependable, he is what he is and he’s not super complex. Having the flavor text as “I don’t get it” is extra trolly and I am here for it. 

Gary, the Snail as Toxrill, the Corrosive

EDHREC: 6k as commander, 38k decks

Special Printings: Silver Screen foil ($70), Showcase foil ($20)

Toxrill is a powerhouse of a commander, and while the Gary art is very nonthreatening, the irony is hilarious. The Showcase and DBF foils are good, but they won’t stand out in the same way this will, and I expect this to fit between the current special version prices. 

Sandy Cheeks, Martial Astronaut as Toski, Bearer of Secrets

EDHREC: 2k as commander, 178k decks

Special Printings: Showcase foil ($6), SPG foil ($25)

By far the most popular card in this drop, I am expecting big things from Sandy. The SPG version is good, but they took a great character and put her in a great pose and I want this version in all my decks. Toski and Sandy just fit well, and she wants to be in the action, doing things, kicking butt and taking names!

Squidward, Sarcastic Snob as Grazilaxx, Illithid Scholar

EDHREC: 500 as commander, 57k decks

Special Printings: FEA ($1.50), Ampersand ($10)

Squidward is a semi-popular card to include in decks that want to bounce things in and out of play. Ninjas see a lot of value here, as does most flavors of blink decks. There were other choices here for the card but the annoying factor is perfect flavor. 

Mr. Krabs, Penny Pincher as Charix, the Raging Isle

EDHREC: 2500 as commander, 26k decks

Special Printings: FEA ($2)

Not a lot of iconic crabs in Magic, but I am glad they skipped making this a Ruin/Hedron mill crab. Only really good in heavy blue decks, but this does see play in toughness matters, either for milling or for toughness-as-power reasons. 

Plankton, Tiny Tyrant as Skrelv, Defector Mite

EDHREC: 1500 as commander, 86k decks

Special Printings: Showcase ($3) and Step-and-Compleat ($8)

This is the most tournament-played card in the drop, and might help the nonfoil version of the drop sell better/hold a price better. It’s also worthy for any Commander deck that needs to keep the commander safe. 

SpongeBob SquarePants: Internet Sensation

Counterspell

EDHREC: 1.14 million decks

Special Printings: Several, with a very wide range of prices.

SpongeBob’s face doing this, put onto Counterspell, might be the most iconic combination of art, intent, and card use possible. I can see this as Rhystic Study “DiD yOu PaY tHe OnE” sort of thing but this is glorious in every way possible. Is there a non-Vintage Cube that wouldn’t love to have this art?

Daze

EDHREC: 20k decks

Special Printings: Invocation ($200)

I thought there had been something else over the years, a SPG or anything, but no, this is the only other special printing of Daze and that alone might be worth the price of admission. Even better is that you’ll get a certain number of Legacy players who need not just one copy, but four matching ones. 

Inevitable Betrayal

EDHREC: 36k decks

Special Printings: MH2 Retro and FEA (Both $1)

I had straight-up forgotten that this card exists, but the art makes me want to play it in every blue deck! Sure, Bribery is better, but it doesn’t make the whole table nervous for a couple turn cycles. Again, iconic combination of art and card, someone at WotC deserves a bonus for this.

Force of Despair

EDHREC: 31k

Special Printings: Secret Lair Prize ($15 foil)

There are a lot of Magic cards that refer to sadness, depression, and feelings of being alone, and Force of Despair is a worthy inclusion. Sacrificing, and especially taking fun away from others, is a great way to use this art. 

Night’s Whisper

EDHREC: 245k decks

Special Printings: Retro Foil WPN ($1), Dracula SL ($7 foil)

Creepy, accurate, and hilarious. Everything you want a SL to be. This should easily become the most expensive version, and I hope I have the chance to buy in cheap.

SpongeBob SquarePants: Lands Under the Sea

No point listing all the sweet cards here. Great choices from the show, and Gary features in all of them as a happy little snail taking a tour. This will be more popular than you think.

There’s a lot of discussion on how the bonus card is very likely to be SpongeBob’s house as Command Tower, and there’s a lot of folks who would love for that to be true. Including me.

Overview

One of the things I’m expecting here is a massive print run for this set. We know that the Miku lairs were cranked up between the first and the last  in terms of print run, and despite all the tech glitches and problems, the Marvel Lair took several hours to sell out. I don’t think this will sell out in less than a few hours, but the supply will be pretty significant at the outset.

SpongeBob collectibles aren’t a huge market the way they are for Hatsune Miku, but the nostalgia/gifts for kids factor is through the roof here. People will want this just for a physical copy of the memes.

Additionally, I expect the lands to sell out first. It’s reasonable to assume that they printed less of the lands, since lands are usually the worst-selling part of a Lair. From a psychology perspective, it also gooses interest to have something sell out early, and push hype towards getting the rest of it sold. I imagine there will be some minor bundle discount, and I will be maxing out the bundles as best I can.

If I were ranking these, it would go memes-legends-lands, but I’m a big believer in this drop and I will be investing in both foils and nonfoils. A full set of both would be about $210, and based on past pricing, the bundle price will be something like $180. That price point is just under 15% off and I plan to max out there, getting additional single foil drops as well.

I think this drop has all the hallmarks of a success, and the only question for me is how many hours it will take to sell out. I plan on buying a lot, and I would encourage you to do the same.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Casual Fridays, Uncategorized

Early Movement on Aetherdrift Card Prices

It’s really, really easy to get caught up in ‘the next thing’ because of Wizards of the Coast’s obsession with keeping excitement high. Granted, there’s a vested interest in keeping up with what’s coming out and what’s happening, because there’s profit opportunities such as the recent spike in Commander’s banned list. There’s no end of new events, streams, articles, and ways for Wizards to drum up interest in upcoming sets. 

However, we can’t lose sight of the here and now, which means Aetherdrift! The set only came out a week ago, and there’s a lot of movement on prices. Not all of it is downwards, either, so let’s get into it and see what opportunities exist right now, and which hint at future ones. 

All data is as of Thursday night, 2/20, for the regular frame nonfoil.

Ketramose, the New Dawn (Lowest sale was $15, Highest $75, currently $48) – Ketramose is getting all of the attention from the set, especially for its strength in Modern, where there’s a wide assortment of ways to exile things for benefit. Some of those are aggressive (Phelia) and some are reactive (Force of Negation) but all of them now come with a cantrip once Ketramose is in play. What’s additionally wild is how Path to Exile now comes with a card to draw as well!

Ketramose will start showing up in some lists in the next couple of weeks, and there’s a good chance that we see the card pop back up above $60. People aren’t dipping a toe in with this card, they are going full-on with the complete playset in a deck, and for a mythic, buying four at a time can really impact the supply.

Monument to Endurance (L: $4, H: $15, C: $11) – This is one of the top inclusions from EDHREC, not least because there are two Zombie commanders who want to discard cards, and Varina has also been newly popular. I have a hard time thinking that this price stays high, as it’s just a rare and people are getting one at a time. It takes tremendous demand to keep an in-print rare above $10, and I’m doubtful about this card in the short term.

Radiant Lotus (L: $13, H: $70, C: $16) – We all know that this is a Lotus, and making three mana at a time, but the six mana and the need for sacrifice is a real cost. I’m not surprised that it’s fallen this far, but clearly it’s got farther to fall until the combos are found. I don’t doubt that this card can be broken, but we’ve got to keep in mind that this isn’t fast mana, it’s a boatload of mana after you’ve found a way to get a six-mana rock into play. I don’t think it’ll go below $10, but the premium copies with truly gorgeous art might stay expensive just for the aesthetics. 

Oildeep Gearhulk (L: $3, H: $11, C: $5) – What a lot of people are overlooking about this card is that it shares the Vendilion Clique ability of looking at the hand, and then you get to decide if you need to get rid of a card from your opponent’s hand. It’s a tough mana cost, and it’s very dangerous to add this card to Standard when there’s already a Dimir self-bounce deck running around. It’s a mythic, and that helps its price, but this will never be a four-of card and so I expect the price to stabilize between $5 and $10.

The Aetherspark (L: $25, H: $110, C: $34) – It’s a crazy card with an impressive type line, but that novelty was responsible for lots of hype and a too-high price. This really needs to come down under $20, and likely to the $15 range. A regular planeswalker with these abilities (+1: add a counter to a critter, -5: Draw two, -10: Add ten mana) would be pretty middling for what Commander decks what to do. There’s a lot less work that can go into a win condition, and once people realize that, the price will trickle downwards. It might pop up if something turns out to be a fun combo, but if the point of the combo is adding mana, it might not do too much. 

Loot, the Pathfinder (L: $1.50, H: $30, C: $3) – I’ve seen people building decks around Loot and Agatha’s Soul Cauldron, a combo that makes my heart sing. ASC is already super pricey because of the Modern combos that it helps to reinforce, but Loot is an accessory, not a focus. Does great things, powerful things, and there’s combos in Standard with Sleep-Cursed Faerie, but we’re going to need to see results before we start buying. 

Riptide Gearhulk (L: $5, H: $10, C: $10) – It’s pretty evil that this is legal in Standard alongside Elesh Norn, Mother of Machines. If someone double-triggers this on you, then your third and fourth turns from now are locked in. It’s also a really quick clock, smashing for six or 8 depending on the cantrips in your hand when you attack. Additionally, everything that cares about having two power, like Enduring Innocence, will gladly welcome the card. Ten bucks feels about right, but the rest of the set and the speed of undercutting might lower the price slowly over time. 

The Verges (range in prices, mostly $4-$7 now from $10 heights) – I like these to travel back upwards into the $10 or even $15 range before they rotate out of Standard. It’s really, REALLY powerful to have dual lands that come into play untapped, and considering that these are best friends with the Surveil lands from MKM, we’re going to see a lot of Surveil/Verge manabases for all of 2025 and 2026. 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Casual Fridays

The Definitive Tier List for Potential Commander Unbannings

Aetherdrift is on sale today, and let’s be honest, Ketramose is lighting up all sorts of cards. BW Blink is a big deck in Modern right now, and it’s about to get a powerful draw engine. Psychic Frog plus Darkblast and Ketramose is a deadly combo that we’re going to see a lot of as well. It’s $50, and we’re going to see that price go higher this weekend and hopefully it comes down to something reasonable. 

It’s not going to be soon, though, because people are buying the card four at a time…and it’s worthwhile to do that. It might come down if the meta shifts, but I expect Ketramose to hit $75 in the next week, and after that, supply should bring that back down. Heaven help us if there’s a Standard deck as well as the Modern implications.

However, from a MTG Finance perspective, the biggest news of the week was Commander-related. We got an explanation of the Commander Brackets system, a list of Game Changer cards, but most importantly, Gavin Verhey saying that sometime in April, there will be some cards unbanned in Commander. 

Frankly, there’s already been a lot of buying around this potential news, and all sorts of speculation online about which cards he’s referring to. I’m here to give you the definitive list of what is and isn’t getting unbanned, now that Wizards runs the banned list.

We’re going to put this in tiers, from the zero-chance (F tier) to the ‘absolutely going to happen sometime’ (S tier). For each, I’m going to put down the current cheapest price, and what that price could go to. More premium versions will of course go wild too. I’m presuming that the cards will not get a reprint to go with the unbanning, and if that happens, watch out.

S-Tier: Will Get Unbanned 

  • Jeweled Lotus ($76, but was $40 before the announcement)
  • Dockside Extortionist ($37, was $12)
  • Mana Crypt ($80, was $45)
  • Coalition Victory ($3)

These are the easy picks. The three bannings that triggered the end of the Commander Rules Committee era are all cards that were fine until the RC decided this specific set of fast mana was a problem. Wizards is happy to reprint these cards, mark them as Game Changers, and move on. I don’t think they will all get reprinted immediately, or even at the same time, but eventually yes, they are going to be legal again. Eventually.

I bought four borderless foil Jeweled Lotus when I heard about the announcement, but I should have moved on Dockside. Legit spec targets, but I’ve no idea when it will happen.

A-Tier: I Have Slight Doubts, But Likely Eventually

  • Biorhythm ($6)
  • Golos, Tireless Pilgrim ($2)
  • Iona, Shield of Emeria ($4)
  • Sylvan Primordial ($2)
  • Flash ($1.50)

These five cards are powerful and potentially really annoying, but there’s a lot to be said for each of these being totally fine. Golos could become the default ‘five color good stuff’ deck and with the land find it’s possible to recast it almost every turn. Is that more or less annoying than other cards? Iona hoses one color (you should name blue) but the other colors make for a fun political subgame. Primordial is capable of killing three permanents, and finding you forests, but it’s not problematic until you flicker/reanimate/etc and isn’t that every damn card in Commander? Same thing with Flash–puts a card into play, instantly sacrifices it. We’ve got a range of such effects already, and while this is cheaper, it’s got a good chance to see an unbanning and try it at high power levels.

I could defend you buying these, especially at these low prices, but I wouldn’t be in super deep.

B-Tier: Make Your Case, But I Lean No

  • Braids, Cabal Minion (bulk)
  • Emrakul, the Aeons Torn ($20)
  • Hullbreacher ($3)
  • Trade Secrets ($1)

I think that these all represent cards that are unfun in most settings, and should stay banned. They are also ridiculously powerful, and since we’re legislating in the high power brackets of Commander, I think people will make a case. I definitely would not spec on any of these cards. 

C-Tier: Reserved List Conspiracy Brain

  • Fastbond ($30)
  • Library of Alexandria ($1,300)
  • Recurring Nightmare ($60)
  • Rofellos, Llanowar Emissary ($42)
  • Yawgmoth’s Bargain ($22)

Hot take: I don’t think these are so much more game-breaking that they can’t be considered for unbanning, but they won’t be unbanned because they are on the Reserved List and therefore Wizards cannot make any money off of the unbanning. It is super easy to imagine Gavin calling up someone at WotC and saying, ‘when’s a good time for us print <name of card> so we can unban it at the same time?’ These are enormously powerful cards, worthy of being banned, but less powerful than some other unbanned cards. 

D-Tier: Enormously, Incredibly, Boringly Unfun and 95% Never Unbanned

  • Erayo, Soratami Ascendant ($6)
  • Gifts Ungiven (50¢)
  • Griselbrand ($3)
  • Leovold, Emissary of Trest ($2)
  • Limited Resources ($3)
  • Lutri, the Spellchaser (bulk)
  • Nadu, Winged Wisdom (50¢)
  • Panoptic Mirror ($8)
  • Paradox Engine ($7)
  • Primeval Titan ($8)
  • Prophet of Kruphix ($1)
  • Sundering Titan (bulk)
  • Sway of the Stars ($3)
  • Tinker ($1)
  • Tolarian Academy ($200)
  • Upheaval (bulk)

A lot of these cards are just repetitive play patterns, over and over again. Are there plenty of Commander decks built the same way? You betcha, it’s the main format for people who love to spin their wheels over and over and yet accomplish nothing. With these cards, it isn’t always about the instant win, no, you should be so lucky as someone demonstrating their Gifts Ungiven for a combo, or the Paradox Engine loop twice and then table is scooping. It’s the non-deterministic Nadu combo for ten minutes, it’s a flipped Erayo from someone who also has four counters in hand, just in case. It’s Prophet basically taking four turns every cycle while you do one. Good riddance to all of these.

F-Tier: Why Are You Even Asking?

  • Ancestral Recall
  • Balance
  • Black Lotus
  • Chaos Orb
  • Channel
  • Falling Star
  • Karakas
  • Mox Emerald
  • Mox Jet
  • Mox Pearl
  • Mox Ruby
  • Mox Sapphire
  • Shahrazad
  • Time Vault
  • Time Walk

Name your reason, these are staying banned. I love the idea of the ‘dexterity’ cards like Orb and Star, but having seen people argue about Orb in Cube drafts, heaven help us at regular Commander games. These aren’t getting unbanned ever, no need to go over prices here.

If you disagree with these tiers, please, let me know in the comments, on social media, or preferably, in the ProTrader Discord! I’m happy to talk about the reasons I ranked them this way.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Casual Fridays

The Mana Math of Aetherdrift

Welcome back to a new set, and a new group of calculations. Aetherdrift has a new type of booster for us to unpack, a single serialized card, and another batch of sweet, sweet, Fracture Foils. 

Let’s get into what you can open and what you might get when you crack one of these packs. 

Box Toppers are back! These are two-card packs, found in Play Booster boxes, Collector Booster boxes, and the Finish Line bundles. You’re going to get one of ten different lands (75% driver’s perspective, 25% full-art panorama, and one of 84 different rares or 43 mythics, a total of 127 options.

It’s possible that the panorama foils might become expensive down the line, but I’ve found that basics are no longer worth it, generally speaking. There’s just too many sweet options, and each new awesome one makes the others harder to go up in price. We get occasional exceptions, but even things like the Oil-Slick lands have taken forever to go up a buck or two. Just better to put your money someplace else.

The First-Place Foils have the distinction of looking like terrible Pokemon cards, thanks to the yellow outline on the posted photos, but the videos Wizards posted look pretty cool, so I’ll forgive them. The second slot of a Box Topper pack has a lot of options, which calls for a table: 

Right away, I want you to see that 7 of 10 packs have a regular rare card. We’re already off to a killer start with that, but the rates go up from there. The First-Place Foil version of the Special Guests is a mega-rare pull, being at 714 of these packs to get a single copy. You get ONE Box Topper pack per box (Play, Collector, or Finish Line) so please, if you open something good make sure you get a good price.

I’ll be curious to see if folks realize what difficult pulls these particular foils are, there may well be some underpricing going on early.

Let’s get to the nonfoils, of which there are two slots, so we have an extra column for the doubling up. 

Note: Wizards doesn’t want to just say how many of each treatment there are in an easy way, spreading out the information over the whole page, and if I find new ones revealed on Jan. 31 or later, I’ll update these numbers. 

The nonfoil special versions are about right, providing some solid numbers for those who don’t like the shiny, warping cards. Especially with two slots, there will be plenty of these to go around. 

Now, for the foil slot at the end of the pack.

Yup, you’re reading that right. Fracture Foils at 1500/3000 packs is in line with the last two sets. They’ve clearly got a ratio they like, and going by the prices of most Fracture Foils, the players agree. 

Please remember that you’re 1/1000 to get any Fracture Foil, but because two-thirds of those are English-language and one-third is Japanese-language, that’s where the 1500 and 3000 come from. 

What jumps out at me from these tables is the Special Guests. That’s been a rare enough thing in the Collector Boosters, but considering that it takes 714 Box Topper packs to get a particular First-Place SPG, but only 238 Collector Boosters, I’ll be keeping an eye on the relative prices of those cards. If those are close to the same price, it would be a data point about how many boxes (and Finish Line boxes) are sold compared to how many Collector Booster packs are opened. It’s a little scary that 238 x 3 is exactly 714, and that made me go back and check my assorted math. 

The rest of it is in line with previous sets, so any big spikes or dips will be due to demand, not a change in collation. Please notice that the Mana Foil is no longer there, which was a good midway between the Borderless art and the Japan Showcases.

Now, to talk about the serialized Aetherspark. Wizards is probably aware that they made a mistake when they gave us precise odds for serialized cards, as in Lord of the Rings, because that let us know what the total number in circulation was, a data point that they haven’t really replicated.

Here’s a table for your odds, varying the number of packs printed:

The $120 is an estimate of what the distributors pay for the average Collector Booster box, and that’s the sales that Wizards cares about. Again, these are estimates, and if I get better data I can give a more precise number, but we think that you’ve got to open something like 6,000 packs to get a serialized Aetherspark. 

Remember, statistics are an overall view. There will undoubtedly be people who open two serialized Aethersparks within 500 boosters, and others who open 10,000 Collector Boosters and get none. 

I hope this math is helpful for you, and helps in your buying and opening decisions. If you want to talk about my methods or errors, please reach out to me on Twitter, Bluesky, or in the ProTrader Discord.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.