Foundations is coming out in two weeks, there’s barely any preorders to be had, and while there’s a lot to discuss with the timeframe of the set and how long it’ll be in print for, we also know that some of these cards are going to be casual all-stars. 

It’s important that we remember that this set will be Standard-legal until the end of 2029. That’s five full years! An enormous amount of time for the ten scrylands to be legal in the format, on top of all the other things to be had here. 

Another important caveat is that we should expect this set to get reprints at some time in that five-year period. We haven’t yet had a full reprinting of Collector Boosters, just Draft/Play boosters, and there’s no reason to think that Wizards will change that policy…but they are changing a LOT of things and nothing is 100% in this crazy world.

Except, perhaps, that if you want to know how rare the rarest drops are in Foundations, I’ve got you covered. Dust off your calculators, here we go.

I want to start off with the nonfoils of the EA and the borderless cards. We’re given two slots with these, and so the odds have to be cut in half. There is indeed a chance you get a pack with a pair of the same FEA mythic, albeit in nonfoil. 

Wow gonna be a lot of nonfoils out there, plus what peeps open in Play Boosters! Given the casual appeal of a lot of the Foundations cards, this may turn out to be a profitable spot once we reach max supply.

But what about the foil slot?

Traditional Foil (unless noted otherwise)	# of cards in that group	Percent chance for any card of that category	Percent chance for a specific card of that category	# of packs to open one specific card from that category
Borderless Rare	43	34.50%	2.03%	49.28
Borderless Mythic Rare	17	6.80%	0.16%	632.35
Extended-Art Rare	37	29.60%	0.80%	125.00
Extended-Art Mythic Rare	9	3.60%	0.40%	250.00
Mana Foil Rare	43	8.40%	0.20%	511.90
Mana Foil Mythic Rare	17	1.60%	0.09%	1062.50
Foil Special Guest	10	5.50%	0.55%	181.82
Traditional Foil Japan Showcase in English (10)	10	6.00%	0.60%	166.67
Traditional Foil Japan Showcase in Japanese	10	3.00%	0.30%	333.33
Fracture Foil Japan Showcase in English	10	0.66%	0.07%	1515.15
Fracture Foil Japan Showcase in Japanese	10	0.33%	0.03%	3030.30

Holy #$%#$ that is some rare loot to drop! One in 3000 packs is up there, equivalent to pulling a serialized card out of Assassin’s Creed packs. 

However, that 1 in 3030 has a big caveat: It’s 1 in 1000 in the Japanese-language packs. We got this same breakdown in Duskmourn, and there’s not a huge price gap, just a few percent between the English and the Japanese versions. For the English, though, that 1515 is still a huge number, roughly the same as getting a textured foil out of the OTP subset of Outlaws of Thunder Junction. Some of those textured foils are impressively cheap at the moment, and I know I’ve picked some in the past as great spec targets.

The Mana Foils ought to hold a nice premium here too, considering that it takes a thousand packs to open a specific one. That’s up there with the rarest pulls from All Will Be One, the concept Praetors. The Mana foils are a good treatment to have, up there with the Fractured foils, and I’m looking forward to seeing this pattern used more. 

Finally, I want to call out the Special Guests here. Dropping at a rate of 1/180 packs, that’s almost twice as common as they were in the last couple of sets, so if you want any of the newest ten, you’d do well to hold off a bit and let the supply build up. Their prices should fall faster than the SPG of Duskmourn or Bloomburrow.

I hope this information helps your buying, and as always, please look me up on Twitter or on the ProTrader Discord if you’ve got questions or want to call out my errors. Happy Pack-Cracking!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

This isn’t the big obvious yes you might be thinking it is. 

It’s extremely likely to do well, as a mega mega crossover with the most recognizable characters on the planet, and the card selection is juiced to boot!

However, aside from the IP and the limited-run nature of the drop, we need to look at the cards and figure some things out. 

So let’s look at the five drops, the characters, the cards, and the reprints, and make some decisions.

For each of the cards in a drop, I’m listing the EDHREC inclusion rate, as well as two prices: the cheapest version (usually a basic frame nonfoil) and the most expensive (could be serialized, mega-rare, or from the Alpha release!) so that we have a basis for where the card prices should land. 

The five characters themselves normally would not be super expensive. We’ve got data to back that up: None of the unique legends from Street Fighter or Stranger Things are particularly expensive, and aside from Rick, Steadfast Leader, the same is true for The Walking Dead. The Doctor Who: Regeneration drop has a set of expensive legends, which is probably due to a low quantity sold at the time. 

However, Marvel IP is in a galaxy of its own, eclipsed only by Disney in terms of the characters and their marketing. Plus, everyone who wanted a Dr. Who could get one, and this set of Secret Lairs is likely to sell out ridiculously fast. So while other special legends haven’t been super expensive, this is likely to be a big outlier.

All indications are that even if the cards were terrible, this would still sell amazingly well, but the card selection is definitely chosen to help move this product. Let’s get to the drops, in order of probable value in a year. As a bonus, I’ll give a longshot spec for each commander. We’ve talked about many of these on MTG Fast Finance, as well as the Discord, so we’ll see if it gets there.

Wolverine, Best There Is

Berserk (14,000 decks, $20 for the cheapest and $500+ for the most expensive)

Rite of Passage (7300 decks, $5 to $20)

Rhythm of the Wild (239k decks, $3 to $10)

The Ozolith (160k decks, $33 to $450) 

I am a Gruul enthusiast and quite frankly, this drop is everything you might want. Wolvie himself does it all, and I can’t wait to build this deck. You want to attack, to deal damage, and kick a lot of butt. I am truly impressed at the card selection here: Rite of Passage works great with the fight spells you’ll add to the deck, Berserk is nullified by his regeneration, Ozolith is great in case of exile spells, and then Rhythm of the Wild, one of the best feelings in Magic is landing this early.

Even the cheap versions of these add up to $58, and this will be at least a $15 version of Rhythm of the Wild in a year. It’s stuffed with value, fantastic art, iconic character. Winner all around and if you don’t have the spare funds to buy everything, just get a couple of this drop.

Bonus Spec: Mage Slayer ($1 to $7) – There’s only one frame/art, and the pack foil is the only way to get a shiny. I think some people have already bought cheaper foils, but this does exactly what you’d want in a Wolverine deck–gut the other players quickly and effectively.

Captain America, First Avenger

Sigarda’s Aid (74k decks, $7 to $11)

Flawless Maneuver (206k decks, $9 to $16)

In the Trenches (7500 decks, 50¢ to $1.50)

Sword of War and Peace (28k decks, $8 to $80)

Three awesome cards and a random In The Trenches still make for a great drop. Why there’s an anthem to go with a Voltron Equipment-focused Commander I’ll never know. Aid is exactly what this deck wants, Flawless is exactly that, and the Sword (as a Shield!) is a great addition. The flavor is top-notch, and we’ve already seen a few cards pop off in anticipation of Cap’s arrival.

I think the straightforward nature of the Commander plus the right accessory cards make for a very good drop that will sell out quick, and should profit.

Bonus Spec: The Reality Chip ($2 to $8) – Blue equipment needs to be pretty great, and while there’s a lot of enablers in RW for the archetype, this equipment gives lots of card advantage if it sticks around. Plus, it’s gotten zero reprints, so when the deck starts getting built, this should be trending upwards.

Storm, Force of Nature

Lightning Bolt (242k decks, $1 to $600)

Jeska’s Will (398k decks, $20 to $90)

Ice Storm (374 decks!, $8 to $300)

Manamorphose (22k decks, $4 to $30)

Storm is terrifying, a must-kill threat who can wreck a table in a bunch of different ways. Giving one spell storm is thematic, and the four spells that come in her Drop are all excellent things you’d love to cast more than once in a turn. Jeska’s Will is super expensive in its FEA version and this should end up being a very pricey version of that card. 

Remember that the sequence has to go something like: spells in first main-combat-deal damage-next spell has storm. So it’s not just that she hits and the game ends, but when they cast some foolishness ad get in, then cast Time Warp for three extra turns, well, it’ll feel like the game is over.

Bonus Spec: Storm-Kiln Artist ($1 to $3) – There’s a lot of ways to build this deck, but when you want to storm off, the Artist is there to give discounts and make your turns that much more powerful.

Black Panther, Wakandan King

Secure the Wastes (54k decks, $1 to $10)

Primal Vigor (61k decks, $7 to $14)

Heroic Intervention (648k decks!!, $10 to $25)

Karn’s Bastion (237k decks, $1 to $4)

I genuinely didn’t know that the Bastion was in so many decks! This is a great variation on the +1/+1 theme, where the lands build up counters and then when you’re ready, move them over and break some face. Primal Vigor applies to everyone, don’t forget, and Heroic Intervention is the staple of staples. Everything that’s good with the counter themes will be good here. 

Bonus Spec: Kutzil, Malamet Exemplar (bulk to $1) – There’s no shortage of things that help a Selesnya deck win with counters and doubling and whatnot, but this Cat can get you that warm, safe feeling of being able to do what you want on your turn AND get you an extra card in combat. I don’t know if people will adopt this tech, but they should.

Iron Man, Titan of Innovation

Galvanic Blast (12k decks, $1 to $8)

Commander’s Plate (113k decks, $33 to $60)

Sol Ring (3,982,665 decks and counting, $1 to $1400)

Inventors’ Fair (183k decks, $15 to $60)

The Plate was in the Angels deck, which is why the special version is so pricey, and this one should be impressively priced too. This Sol Ring should be at least $10 too, and this is the first special printing of Inventors’ Fair. All told, there’s a lot to like here and this should appreciate nicely. Plus, this is another commander who tells you exactly what to do, and you ought to listen.

Bonus Spec: Esoteric Duplicator ($2 to $8) – If you’re sacrificing artifacts left and right, you need a way to get some value from the process, and for two mana, you’ll never lose your place in the chain. Please note that you get to do this even if you sacrifice a token, so you can keep giving Tony the same thing over and over again.

This Drop also comes with a bonus: every $200 spent gets you a copy of this Arcane Signet, and that’s a lovely addition if you’re already planning to drop a big chunk of change. Even with these being $40 nonfoil and $50 foil drops, you’re looking at a set of five (the presumed max per account) getting you a Signet. The bundles will likely be where more value can be had, and if you can’t afford to buy both foil and nonfoil, go for the foils first. 

Happy hunting!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

It’s been seven months since the Fallout release, and that’s the right timeframe for evaluating the set for longer-term gains. We aren’t going to get any sudden surges of product, nothing additional on the horizon, and we know that Fallout isn’t on the agenda for 2025 Universes Beyond. So we’re going to take a look at cards popular in Commander, compare the use rates, the prices, and see what’s worth buying.

The most unique versions of Fallout cards are in Surge foil, either Pip-Boy frame or FEA. However, they are not the same rarity at all. Looking back at the Mana Math of Fallout, I broke down the drop rates and found that the Surge foil Pip-Boy frames are 1 in 390 Collector Boosters, and the Surge foil Extended-Art cards are 1 in 126 Collector Boosters. Generally speaking, the Surge FEA cards are more expensive than the regular frame Surge foils, even though the regular frame versions are harder (about 1/294) to find.

The distribution of Fallout (Commander decks and Collector Boosters only) has really impacted the number of decks running these cards. The top Fallout card on EDHREC has only half the numbers of the top Bloomburrow card, and that’s all due to how we get the cards, the availability due to draft, and all those related factors. Please remember that EDHREC is a good data point, but it’s not all-inclusive and there’s lots of players who don’t ever upload their decklists. 

These cards are all listed by their EDHREC rank, with most popular first. Additionally, several of these have been mentioned as specs on cast or in our Discord.

Farewell (276k decks, $15 to $55) – This is the only reprint I want to talk about today, the rest of these cards are brand-new. The Vault Boy subset of reprints are all good cards, but this version of Farewell is going to be very hard to top. I’ve bought a couple playsets of the regular foils at $15, and I feel quite confident in these long-term. The Surge foil version can be had for just over $50, and given the tiny quantity available, there’s a very good chance that these spike in the next year or so. Farewell is going to get regular reprintings, it’s already a super-staple, but this version with this art is flavorful, fun, and hard to reprint with this IP.

Lands (25-35,000 decks, 25¢ to $4) – I didn’t realize it until I looked this set up, but these cards have already been reprinted four times! Each of the Commander precons since (BLB, DSK, MKM and OTJ) have included these lands, at least is the color pair is in the sets. The UG has four reprints, the UB just two, as an example.

What really catches my attention is that there’s blessed few cards that premiered in a Universes Beyond set but went on to get reprints, especially multiple reprints within months of their premiere. (More research is coming, as is a future article) The foil versions are only from the original Fallout packs, so if these lands stay popular we might see the foils pop off. I’d be hesitant to spec on them, though, because there’s just so many good options for lands.

Nuka-Cola Vending Machine (30k, $17 to $80) – The other card I want to mention today with Vault Boy art, this is amazing with Food and Treasure, two themes that Wizards has really leaned into. Don’t be afraid of this officially being an uncommon, especially for the sweet version, because the most basic version is already $17 and inching upwards.

Codsworth, Handy Helper (22k, $5 to $13) – Codsworth does two fantastic things for Aura/Equipment decks, and adds a Ward 2 on top of that. When Captain America starts showing up on EDHREC, I expect this to be one of the first additions and Codsworth’s price should tick upwards as people start building the deck. 

Silver Shroud Costume (21k, $5 to $50) – Surprisingly popular, but one turn of protection and then you can get unblockable. Shroud and Equipment are generally a nonbo, but this is a great combination to give a save and then give a useful bonus. People are already adding this at a good clip.

Radstorm (21k, $3 to $25) – The long-term outlook on this is great, especially because proliferate works in a wide variety of decks. Additionally, the Pip-Boy frame in foil or in Surge foil, they look phenomenal and are a lot of fun to have in your deck. 

Atomize  (21k, $3 to $25) – Another card with awesome Pip-Boy art, I especially like the Surge foils here. It’s easy for this to be a removal spell with big bonuses, and it’s not hard to imagine the Surges jumping up.

Nuclear Fallout (19k, $2 to $30) – If you’re a mill deck, this ought to be in the deck. Creepy art is a bonus, as is lots of milling, and again the Surge foils are very reasonably priced for how difficult it was to pull that combination of frame and foiling. 

Diamond City (14k, $1 to $5) – Only available in Extended Art, so there’s no sweet Pip-Boy frame to be had, this is golden in a proliferate deck. Add extra shield counters, and be able to move those counters for a very low price, I’m surprised that this is as cheap as it is. Original Atraxa is one of the most popular commanders of all time, but this being a colorless land is a real drawback too.

Securitron Squadron (11k, $1 to $16) – Token themes are spoiled for cards that help make tokens better. There’s so many to choose from, it’s really difficult to say which are the best. This card is indeed one of the best. For 1W, each token comes in with a counter. For 4W, you get a 2/2, a 4/4, and future tokens get two counters! It scales, and while it’s fragile, being a creature, the art is great and the price is fantastic. 

Inventory Management (11k, $1 to $20) – Here, I think the art being so faithful is kind of a downside. This is exactly the view you get in a Fallout game, and we could have had someone swapping from small knife to slinging a MIRV Fat Man. The card is fantastic, and should be in any Equipment deck with RW colors, including future Captain America decks. 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

We’ve had an interesting blip in terms of Secret Lair drops and how quickly they sell out. Last week, on Sept. 30th, the Camp Totally Safe superdrop went on sale, and unusually for a lair of this quality, the cards contained within didn’t sell out right away. 

So today I want to look at other drops which didn’t sell out and where their prices are, to determine how worried I should be about the purchases I made, and also see if there’s lessons to be learned for future Lairs.

Interestingly, we had some disruptions in the expected order of what sells out and when. This was the third Hatsune Miku drop, and the first two each sold out in a matter of hours. This one took a week for the English-language foils to sell out. 

Momoko sold out in a day, the Showcase: Duskmourn foils sold out in five days, then EN Foil Miku in six days, and only recently did the EN nonfoils sell out. I felt good about those three Lairs when I wrote about the entire drop on the 27th, but Miku taking a week is the most notable part of all of this. 

So what happened?

There’s a combination of potential factors at work here, and it’s difficult to say from outside Wizards which is strongest. First of all, I imagine it’s been long enough since the first Miku drop happened in May that Wizards has been able to get extra product ready for sale. Every person who buys a Miku lair after it sells out is a buyer that Wizards could have made money from. I would not be surprised to learn that Wizards printed a lot more of this third lair as opposed to the first, and I would expect the last one to be similar in terms of the amount they prepared.

To be clear, I don’t have any data on this, just logical suppositions. They want to sell the maximum amount of cardboard, and lead/production times being what they are, it’s plenty reasonable to think that when the first one sold out so fast, they immediately moved to make sure the later Lairs would have more product for sale. 

I don’t really buy the arguments that this drop is weaker than the other Miku lairs. The first one is just abysmal in terms of card choices and prices, and it still sold out at a ridiculous rate. This set of planeswalkers isn’t as strong as the second drop, which had a Sol Ring and a Collected Company, but this fandom/IP doesn’t require expensive cards to get their collector interest up.

There is a case to be made that we’re getting a bit fatigued on the rate of cards coming out, and that the ‘average’ player doesn’t have money to spend on these. I’m inclined to agree–but I think that the majority of Magic players don’t know about Secret Lair stuff at all, at least not until they see the cards. If you own a local store, or maintain a display case of cards for a store, you should keep Secret Lair cards obvious and visible for all the people who had no idea this was a thing. 

I can believe that there were a few less people able to spend money right now, and combined with the extra supply, meant that Miku took a long time to sell out. Indeed, it’s still available in the Japanese, both foils and nonfoils. 

The two drops that sold out before that, I imagine those were based on estimates of previous Lairs of such types. The semi-abstract nature of Peach Momoko might have turned some people off, but their work on Marvel properties more than made up for it. The Showcase is stocked with value, having the Voidwalker and the Metamorph, in addition to the Cat/Oven combo. I think there’s still value in the nonfoil, especially for tournament copies of Voidwalker and Cat/Oven, but personally, I’m reaching my limit for money I’m putting in. 

(For the record, I’m still on the ‘repackage all four Miku drops into one eBay sale’ plan once the fourth drop reaches us. I haven’t resold any of those cards yet)

One more thing comes to mind: I bought other lairs here that haven’t sold out, and I want to think about the most recent non-sold-out lairs, and do some comparisons. Please keep in mind these are most-recent-first, and none have had more than a few months to gain any value from people opening the product. 

Featuring: Andrew Mclean – $30 – Good cards, good art, just needs time.

Li’l Legends – sold out FIAB – $20! – As the add-on for the Festival in a Box, people are selling this for whatever they can get. It’s bonus money after selling the Mystery Booster box. Plus, these cards are either uninspired individually or they already have some special versions out there.

Showcase Bloomburrow – $40 – Cute, but nothing outstanding. Sorin should eventually pop

Brain dead: creatures – $30

Brain dead: lands – $50

Brain Dead: staples – $40

I’m impressed at the lands, and the rest will get there too. The foiling plus the printed texture really stands out, even when double-sleeved.

Featuring: Julie Bell – $30 – I feel good about this long-term, being such gorgeous art.

Prints of Darkness – $50 – This is going to pop off eventually, just from the cards’ popularity.

Assassin’s Creed: Lethal Legends – $60 – I wasn’t expecting this to do so well so quickly, but Ramses, Assassin Lord has spiked hard since the Assassin’s Creed set came out.

Da Vinci’s Designs – $50 – Super unique look, good cards with no other special versions, I like where this is going.

NOT A WOLF: $50 – Should go up very slowly until the next batch of Werewolves comes out, at which point it will spike most impressively.

Poker Faces – $30 – One of the sets that tells us not to get too abstract.

Goblingram – $30 – Good joke, decent cards, popular tribe, mediocre sales.

Showcase: Outlaws of Thunder Junction – $20 – With a guaranteed Norin, the Wary at $9 retail, the rest of these cards are a steal.

Sinister Scoundrels – $40 

Rebellious Renegades – $40

Both of these are likely to stagnate for a while, though the Elesh Norn has had so very many special versions at this point.

sAnS mErCy – $40 – I’m one of the people that isn’t turned off by the font, but this should have an upward trajectory until some other special version of Torment of Hailfire comes out.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.