A lot of people are freaking out about Eldrazi.  The deck with 2 reprinted lands in Modern Masters 2015 and a bunch of Standard legal rares apparently has everyone running scared.  This is my way of dealing with it:

For anyone who doesn’t get this, you need to go spend some time and watch Shaun of the Dead.

Either way, my position from last week hasn’t changed.  I’ll just take a break from Modern until someone smarter than me figures out how to beat the tentacle menace.

The State of Standard

If you’re not playing a deck that could also be named “Revenge of the Sand People,” then you’re probably trying to play something to beat it.  I think we have already seen the power of Collected Company and Reflector Mage as well.  So what happens from here?

The Short term (next 3 months)

Rally is good, Collected Company is good, Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet is good. But what about in 3 months when rotation happens?  Despite coming out very recently, I think it’s correct to sell Kalitas before rotation.  My aim would be the week before Shadows over Innistrad spoilers officially start.  Kalitas doesn’t actually act very favorably with the self-mill themes that were popular during original Innistrad.  His wording is different than Anafenza, the Foremost.  With the rotation of Rally the Ancestors I don’t think there will be as big of an emphasis on exiling creatures.

If you play Abzan aggro you’re liking paying $40 to keep your Siege Rhinos, Warden of the First Tree, and Anafenza, the Foremost until rotation as that will be a minimal cost to continue playing.

Collected Company will stay good unless the mana is really bad in Shadows over Innistrad. The shell of Collected Company, Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy, and Reflector Mage will be intact until the fall.

So if you’re worried about the feet coming out from under your Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy we’re slowly coming to the last 6 months of him being legal in Standard.  With the release of the unannounced fall set he will rotate.  If wisdom from Khans of Tarkir taught us anything, we will see the last spike during the release of Shadows over Innistrad (6 months before rotation).  The hype for new madness cards could certainly put him over $100 and his recent lack of Modern play leads me to believe that would be the time to get out.

I’m not sure there Hangarback Walker will go out with a band or a whimper (like our old friend Siege Rhino) but it is important to note that this card is one of very few cards with multiple card types that are Standard playable.  This is important for Delirium cards, like the one confirmed in Blessed vs Cursed duel deck.

My last bit of advice is in these next 3 months find some time to grab all of the Battle for Zendikar and Oath of the Gatewatch dual lands.  We will need to find a way to make Battle land / Man land mana bases work and it will likely involve a lot of them (since we are losing fetches, which make up a larger portion of many mana bases today).

Do you own 4 of these yet? I know it’s uncommon (pun intended) for uncommons to become very expensive but this guy is the real deal.  He punishes fair decks and unfair decks alike, making it unlikely any real strong reanimator strategy is in our future.  Once we start moving away from 3-4 color decks I could see him teaming up with Harbinger of the Tides for some sick tempo action.  I don’t think it would particularly hard for him to become a $3-4 uncommon if the dominance levels continue.

Also this little Ghostway upgrade could also cause more groans from the audience.

The Long Term

Yeah it happened.  Missed the announcement? Check it out here.

I’ll share with you the information I’ve compiled from various sources that should answer most of your questions:

• No reserve list cards
• $9.99 MSRP
• 24 packs per box
• 1 foil per pack
• No recyclable packaging (like used for Modern Masters 2015)
• It is designed to be drafted and will be on MTGO
• It will include Modern legal cards but that is not the focus Source
• It will have a limited print run (like Modern Masters)

These cards are in it:

By the time you’re reading this Underground Sea has probably become significantly pricier than last weekend but I think that is to be expected.  Unless something happens to the Reserve List, people will continue to purchase those cards knowing they won’t be reprinted and subject to huge price drops.  Right now my advice is buy reserve list cards you may need otherwise just “wait and see.”  I don’t think the new card availability will do a ton to revitalize the Legacy community.

Final Thoughts

• Use this time to clean up your collection.  We’re about to head into a rotation with a lot of powerful cards leaving Standard.  Some bulk rares will rebound
• Watch tournament results.  Blips in the standings are the best times to get in.
• Enjoy playing Magic.

Head for the hills! The Eldrazi and Phyrexians are coming!  Or something…  A lot of people are calling for Eye of Ugin‘s head but I know for sure it won’t be banned immediately.  With one one data point it’s really hard to suggest something so silly.

Let’s start with the Top 8 and analyze what really happened.  There were 6 Eldrazi decks and 2 Affinity decks (if you break them down to their most basic theme).  Looking further, there are really 3 different types of Eldrazi decks.  Frank Lepore’s  list looks like more traditional Eldrazi lists of the last month.  It focuses on the processor interactions from Wasteland Strangler and Blight Herder with collateral damage exile cards in Relic of Progenitus and Scrabbling Claws.  There is the strictly colorless build of the deck heralded by CFB members, Luis Scott-Vargas, Ivan Floch, and Shuhei Nakamura.  This deck plays no real “colored” mana sources outside of Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth and includes some devastating artifacts.  Standout cards in this list are the “colorless” removal spells in Dismember and it’s main interactive spells being Chalice of the Void and Ratchet Bomb.  The last Eldrazi deck was a Blue and Red brew featuring a lot of “draft trash” including “Pro Tour Champion” Eldrazi Skyspawner, Vile Aggregate, and Ruination Guide.  While these decks also quickly latched onto the importance of Dismember, they had more interaction with Eldrazi Scions and Drowner of Hope, and Eldrazi Obligator.  For the most part, the Affinity decks were the same as we have previously seen except they cut Etched Champions in favor of the more robust Master of Etherium.  Etched Champion’s appeal quickly falls when you realize all of the top 8 decks have 20+ colorless creatures.

The Eldrazi Base

You may have noticed I haven’t talked mentioned the new additions from Oath of the Gatewatch to these decks.  The reason is this is where all of the overlap occurs.

Kozilek burst from the earth and his brood immediately converged onto Modern.  On paper, these guys are not terribly good rates.  5 mana 5/5 seems a little suspect when we have a $140 2 mana 4/5 (usually).  Every Eldrazi deck at the Pro Tour that went 6-3 or better played 4 of each of these cards (except Frank Lepore who opted out of Endless One).  These guys are so stinky in fact, that Tron doesn’t want anything to do with them despite it’s abundance of colorless mana.

The “Problem Children”

When you have 8 painless lands that do their best Ancient Tomb impression, you come out with a pretty good deck.  All of the Eldrazi decks (presumably even the ones outside of 6-3 range) played 4 copies of each land.  While cards that generally break how fast you can do things (like Chrome Mox, Cloudpost, Summer Bloom, Seething Song, etc) are banned in Modern, these used to have a pretty big restriction.  The cheapest cards they could be used to cast were All is Dust, Skittering Invasion, and Not of This World before Battle for Zendikar.  When Eye of Ugin is used to power out 4 Eldrazi Mimics on turn 1 you might have a problem.

The “B” Word

With all of this success it comes to everyone’s mind: “Does it get banned?”  I don’t work for Wizards of the Coast, nor am I a pro player, or part of the inner circle that may be privy to the information that would influence this call.  I don’t know if anything is likely to get banned.  All I can do is share with you how something might get banned.  Wizards has shown it’s need for data to fuel most bans.  While the Pro Tour has shown the power of these cards, people have had no time to adapt.  Let’s look at the schedule leading up to the Shadows over Innistrad ban and restricted announcement (there is an announcement for every set, even if no changes are made).  Next weekend there are no Magic events.  I guess Wizards and StarCity Games wants everyone to go to Deadpool with their significant other for Valentine’s Day instead.  The following weekend (Feb 20-21) there is a Modern Open in Louisville.  That is the last StarCity Modern event until the next set release.  While there will be some additional data points with 2 more Modern Classics at the Opens, Players will likely not be focusing on the Modern format during that time period.  Triple GP Weekend (Detroit, USA, Bologna, Italy, and Melbourne, Australia) during the weekend of March 4th-6th will likely be nail in the coffin if we are to see a banning coming in April.

Now the real question is what kind of success would the Eldrazi deck need to see to warrant a banning.  If it wins 2 of the 3 Grands Prix, is that enough?  If it’s 35% of the top 32 of each major Modern event, is that enough?   If Modern attendance falls 30% is that enough?  Who knows but I would be watching closely to mark it’s success.  Summer Bloom got banned (even if it took a year) without a huge string of successes or a significantly dominant performance.  The short version of this story is you’re safe until April.

What to do, what to do?

If you’re thinking about buying into the deck, don’t worry about it being banned in the next 3 months.  This deck can probably survive a round of bans based on the power of the creatures involved.  While you may lose some explosiveness if Eye of Ugin or Eldrazi Temple get banned, the core of the deck remains.  Unless Modern makes a big shift toward being able to kill 4/4 and 5/5 creatures you don’t have much to lose.  If you play a lot of Modern and want to win a lot, I’m advocating buying in for at least 3 months.  My best suggestion would be buy the remaining pieces this week (Friday at the latest).  Selling out before Shadows over Innistrad spoiler season might be your best bet to hedge against a ban.

Other news

Hasbro released earnings statements that included this: “Magic had a very good fourth quarter with the release of Battle for Zendikar, which had the strongest start to a set in the brand’s history.”  While I don’t claim to understand the legal jargon, I believe this implies that the pre-order period for Battle for Zendikar was the best it has ever been presumably due to Expeditions.  I’m not sure this is great for people like myself who hope they don’t continue this routine in future sets.

Some cards were leaked implying we will see the return of another Odyssey block mechanic, madness.  Madness was very powerful in the highly synergistic U/G Madness deck the last time it was printed so as long as the power level remains you can count on some good commons and uncommons.  I’m extremely skeptical that Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy won’t see another huge spike if we get very good flashback and madness spells.  Discard outlets are extremely important for that style of deck and you can see why the original deck played some otherwise unimpressive creatures like Aquamoeba and Merfolk Looter.

The second set of Shadows over Innistrad block was announced yesterday here.  Eldritch Moon‘s set symbol has intentionally not been spoiled so there are a lot of theories as to why.

This art for Liliana was also spoiled with the announcement of the set.  The garb she is wearing in this picture seems to be a hybrid of the Liliana, Heretical Healer art and the Liliana of the Veil art.  I don’t think this means we’re getting a Liliana of the Veil reprint but it surely can’t hurt, right?

Final Thoughts

• Shadows over Innistrad and Eldritch Moon are confirmed to not have a clash pack or event deck.  It seems those methods of reprints are done.
• Windswept Heath and Collected Company continue their resurgence to pre-clash pack pricing.  The clash pack may be a good buy soon.
• Thank god for Modern Masters 2015, right?  The Eye of Ugin and Eldrazi Temple reprints continue to show a great deal of fore thought.  While most players may have complained it surely is the reason why they’re relatively affordable right now.  While it sucks they missed Inquisition of Kozilek, it’s important to give credit where credit is due.
• I really like Dismember as a way to deal with the Eldrazi menace.  This card was reprinted as an uncommon in Modern Masters 2015 and is currently only about $1.  If you don’t own a few  I can’t recommend buying this enough.  It’s a very mana efficient way to kill Thought-Knot Seer and Reality Smasher.

I read a lot of comments on a lot of articles, threads, facebook posts, etc.  I see a ton of the same questions asked.  In this article I hope to bullet point some frequently asked questions because I think the value of making this decision on your own vastly out weighs asking the general populace (that likely doesn’t have your best interests in mind).

Should I sell this?

Nobody knows enough information about this except you.  When I decide to sell cards I consider some criteria and hopefully by sharing it with you, you can make you own decisions about when to sell.

• Am I playing this card?
  Just don’t sell stuff you play with.  That doesn’t make any sense.
• Am I going to play this card in the near future?
  This might seem a little obvious but I’ve seen a lot of people make pretty poor decisions because they don’t consider this.  I was going to FNM with a friend last night who decided to sell his Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hungers because the store was paying a lot for them.  That usually makes a lot of sense until the conversation we had later that night where he says “I think I’m going to build the Eldrazi Ramp deck.”  The action of selling Ulamog is completely contradictory to his idea of building the deck that uses the card.  While I don’t think you should be holding cards you might play, if you’re actively considering a deck I don’t recommend selling the pieces before you make a decision.
• How long can I afford to hold this?
  Ah yes the ole “hold that card, it will retain value forever” argument.  I see this most commonly with expeditions these days.  People ask if they should hold or sell these insanely expensive and rare lands.  The argument I hear from people is “hold it, it will always go up” and while that’s true, you have to consider how long you are willing to wait to get rid of it.  The price trajectory of expedition has been down as people are still opening Battle for Zendikar and Oath of the Gatewatch.  Unless there is a significant increase in demand, the increase in supply will continue to drag prices down.  Eye of Ugin’s expedition was $180 pre-order during pre-release weekend.  Today you can buy a copy for $110.  If you decided not to sell that weekend, how long do you think it will take to regain that $70?  How many years do you want to hold something?
• Is there  a reason this card might go up soon?
  This is a pretty simple one.  Is there a Pro Tour, Grand Prix, or StarCity Open that is likely to feature the card I’m looking to sell?  Can you wait until it’s going on?  It’s very unlikely that cards will fall when they get featured on camera but it is extremely likely that they rise.  You want to see what could happen?  Look at the price of Auriok Champion.  It spiked during an SCG Open where it got a lot of camera time.

Should I buy this?

One again, this is another question that is better if you answer yourself rather than ask others for opinions.

• When will I play the deck that needs this card?
  A lot of players get caught up in “but what if I need this?” syndrome.  I know that’s not a very scientific way of explaining but you know what I’m saying.  This point often comes up most when on the eve of a new set release.  How much do you need to have cards the day the set is released?  I don’t typically so I won’t rush to pre-order them or buy them on release day.  This time I did because I played in SCG Atlanta the weekend of the set release.  I was okay overpaying to make sure I had the best deck I could play that weekend.  The other time this question is important is for Modern.  Do you regularly play Modern?  Are you just building a deck to play the PPTQs during Modern season?  If you don’t play it a lot there isn’t a lot of reason to buy cards too ahead of time.  For this year I would probably look to finish my Modern deck during the release of Shadows over Innistrad.
• Is there a high chance of reprint in the near future?
  This point is a little subjective.  Inquisition of Kozilek is a card that could have been reprinted.  This kept the price of Inquisition fairly low because people weren’t buying it aggressively because of a feared reprint.  In this case, I would defer to Warren Buffet, and buy when others are fearful.  If Inquisition had a similar loss to Thoughtseize the risk of reprint is less costly than a risk of no reprint.  Thoughtseize lost ~ 75% of it’s value (falling from roughly $100 to $25).  If Inquisition lost 75% of it’s $12 price tag it would be a loss of maybe $9-10.  If you waited until it was announced as not a reprint you were looking at spending an extra $13 as it doubled up in a few hours.  I’d rather over pay by $9 than have to pay twice as much if the card doesn’t get reprinted.  Zendikar fetchlands had similar reactions when it was announced they were not in  Battle for Zendikar.
• How much are you willing to spend to play Magic?
  Maybe that’s a little vague but that’s basically the question I would ask myself.  How much are you willing to spend on Magic?  If you get to play Standard twice a week for 3 months, what is that worth to you?  If you Standard deck is worth $100 less after that time frame, is it worth the same to you as two video games?  You’re basically paying $100 for 24 tournaments.  That’s the average number of times you can play between set releases.  You definitely can’t go to 24 movies for $100.  Based loosely on current movie prices near me, it would cost $288 to see 24 movies.  Now let’s add another $200 for new cards every set.  You’re looking at probably $300 per set release to keep playing Magic.  Is that something you’re willing to do?  If it’s not, then don’t buy the cards.  You can definitely save a lot more by purchasing cards from the same block (the R/G Eldrazi ramp deck is a great investment now because it won’t largely change until it rotates in April of 2017) and playing a deck for a long time.
• When did this card last change in price?
  Cards that are spiking or have recently seen price increases are much more likely to become cheaper in the coming days.  There is always a supply and demand curve that becomes sated eventually as people sell copies they don’t need anymore and players stop buying at the higher price.  Generally speaking I would recommend waiting until the Tuesday or Wednesday after a card sees a significant increase to purchase my copies if I need them.  It gives stores a chance to restock and a work day or two for TCGPlayer (or Magic Card Market) to resupply itself from people that weren’t paying attention over the weekend.  I like to refer to the post spike price as the “weekend” price because it almost never stays past then.  Unfortunately this is the price that often gets quoted to players as the new “going rate” and causes more panic purchases.