On Monday, September 30th, there’s a new Secret Lair dropping, with a wide range of cards, art, and Intellectual Property (IP for short, the term used when you want to use the fandom/art/characters/lore/etc). It’s mostly Halloween based, but there’s still a few more cards coming, I think, so today I want to focus on an idea that Secret Lairs have been using: Does the card quality matter more than the fandom? 

I used to be a strong believer that the cards matter. We can find many examples of this, but the core principle for me was that the cards in a drop have to be at least playable for people to give a crap. 

And then Hatsune Miku came along. 

I broke down the prices for these when they came out back in May, and I was expressly clear about the IP being the draw and not the cards. Nothing in this drop is more than $4 in its base version, this is incomplete sets of niche lands, cards that have been power crept out of wide usage, and in English foil, the sealed drop is pushing $100 four months later. 

I think there’s opportunity in the other sealed Miku drops–I’m expecting all four Miku drops to hit a peak when the fourth lands near the end of this year and they can be sold as four-volume sets–that are under $50 with shipping and taxes, but be wary of trying to hold forever, holding out for something like $200. That price can happen (see Princess Bride and Evil Dead) but I like turning cards over and getting your profit reinvested into your next moves. 

I did not know who Hatsune Miku was. I knew I’d missed out on other drops because I underestimated the artist, or the genre, or anything like that. I’d even under-ordered things I knew I’d like but I didn’t think would be big, like the Princess Bride or Evil Dead. That is the core question of Secret Lairs now that they have moved to an IP/theme model: Which themes are going to resell best?

For example, the Spookydrop 2023 is the one that had Evil Dead, Princess Bride, and some other things like Doctor Who’s Weeping Angels and Creepshow. They were bundled together, but this is from the model of Secret Lair that did not sell out–they printed to demand. That’s been a huge change, but even so, for drops that happened at the same time, we’ve got a giant gap in pricing. Evil Dead and Princess Bride are over $150, nearing $200, and Creepshow is at half that price, as is the Dr. Who.

So the question of the moment is: Will Ghostbusters be Princess Bride or will it be Creepshow?

My inclination is to think that Ghostbusters (both the cartoon SL and the Slimer SL) will sell well. Both because the IP is strong and nostalgic, very important in this age of Magic pandering to the folks in their early 40s, but also because it’s going to sell alongside the next Miku installment, and that will be gone quickly. 

I recognize that the cards in the Ghostbusters drop are not Field of the Dead-level inclusions, and that’s okay. Not everything needs to be powerful reprints. I could wish for more iconic scenes, like the hallway, but I get what they are going for. It’s also okay that they went for one set with Slimer in 1984, and then one set with The Real Ghostbusters, the animated version. (Ever wanted to know why it wasn’t called just ‘Ghostbusters’ as the movie was? Do you remember some show with a ghost-faced car and a giant talking gorilla? Here’s the explainer you want.) They are trying to tap a wide net of nostalgia, adding a Chucky drop that I’ll address next week when I go through the drop set by set.

The core point here is that it’s okay if the IP of a drop ‘isn’t for you’ because they aren’t trying to make each one be for everyone. They are casting a wide net and eventually they will get to the things you like. Slimer represents one of their favorite things to do lately: Choose a commander, give that commander sweet art, and then add in several cards that are popular in that commander’s deck. Sometimes that’s an IP of Ghostbusters for The Mimeoplasm. Sometimes that’s a bubble-lettered Zaxara, the Exemplary and a bunch of Hydra accessories. 

Strong IP means that the cards can be weak and people buy the cards just to be collectors, not as much for the playing. I know I have a binder just for SL leftovers that I couldn’t fit into a deck, and flipping through those pages makes me happy.

The core lesson, though, is simple: The IP has to be evaluated on its own merits, not just through the lens of your own enjoyment. James and I talked about the D&D superdrop before it landed, and we thought that the Astarion and Karlach drops were solid, if not great. We did not give proper respect to the number of people who love these characters, and they caused the drops to sell out quite rapidly. 

To put it another way, this doesn’t have to be for you, it just has to be for enough people. Creepshow was a little too niche and hasn’t popped off. Evil Dead, Princess Bride, those are much more widely loved and their prices have gone up. 

I’m going to make purchases as though Ghostbusters will sell out quickly, and I encourage you to do the same.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

We have all the cards from Duskmourn: House of Horror, and it’s time we look at the numbers and the chances. Every set, we’re given some percentages, but Wizards doesn’t want to make it super clear how hard it is to open the most chase versions of cards. 

Lucky for you, I’ve gotten good at decoding what they are saying and turning it into useful information.

So let’s get into the statistics, and a couple of ways to buy cards that might be worth your time.

The Nightmare Bundle is one of the best add-ons we’ve seen in a while, and that’s all because of the cards that are added in. When you buy one of these for around $80 (currently, we’ll see if that price goes down), you get all of this, plus a deck box:

• 6 Duskmourn: House of Horror Play Boosters 
• 2 Duskmourn: House of Horror Collector Boosters 
• 20 Traditional foil full-art lands
  • 4 Full-art manor lands of each basic land type 
• 1 of 3 Borderless promo cards 
• 1 of 3 Movie poster–themed cards 
• 3 Double-sided movie posters 
• 1 Glow-in-the-dark spindown die

I’m going to get into the Collector Boosters in a moment, but the real appeal is in the two ‘1 of 3’ cards. You’ll get one of the promos (Exhume, Damn, Crypt Ghast) and one of the movie poster-style cards (Goryo’s Vengeance, Living Death, Archon of Cruelty) always in foil. Those are all solid choices with good use rates, and while I’m not going to run out and buy bundles/cards immediately, I’m almost certainly going to snag a couple of personal copies early and spec buying six months from now.

In the Collector Boosters, there’s three slots with cards we’ll care about, the last three. Two of them are reserved for the Booster Fun nonfoils, and here’s your statistics for pulling one of these from either slot.

And remember, you have two of these slots, so you’ll have double the chances to open the card you want (or half the packs, depending on which set of data you like to work with) and this is the formulation they used in Bloomburrow. 

Then in the last slot, you can open anything that’s in the previous slots, just at a 85.9% rate. The other 14.1%, you get a chance at the truly rare drops, the Japan Showcase versions, the Double Exposure and the Special Guests. Don’t worry, I’ve got that table for you too.

Before you start freaking out about a non-serialized card being found in 1 out of every 3,333 packs (a drop rate close to that of the serialized Human Sol Ring from LOTR) we need to keep in mind that the Japanese-language versions of cards show up in roughly a third of English (and other language) Collector Boosters, but that’s the only language for the Japanese-language Collector Boosters. 

To put it another way, instead of a 0.3% chance of a Japanese-language Fracture Foil, you have a 1% chance instead if you’re opening a Japanese-language Collector Booster. And with there being ten options, you’ve got a 1/1000 chance, no longer a 1/3333 chance. 

So if these Japanese-language cards blow up to ridiculous values, you’re looking at the Japanese-language Collector Booster boxes being even better investments. 

It’s worth noting that the rest of the distribution here is in line with expectations from OTJ and BLB. The rarest pulls from the OTP subset, the Textured Foils, were 1 in 1500 packs. The Raised Foil Anime cards from BLB were just under 1 in 600, but those cards are cute furry animals and Magic players tend to spend pretty hard on those, whereas the OTP, even if in a lot of decks, those can be had relatively cheaply.

I’m also cognizant that we are entering a long period where Duskmourn might be the only set people care about. Bloomburrow was only given about two months where it’s being opened and getting all the attention. The next big set will be Foundations in November, but that will have a lot of reprints. We don’t have a date for Innistrad Remastered aside from it being in January, so we might get a glut of Duskmourn. It’s not for sure, though, and it might turn out that we love opening Foundations packs, so we’ll have to wait and see.

If you want to discuss my numbers, please feel free to reach out in the comments, on Twitter, or in the ProTrader Discord!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.