Category Archives: Watchtower

The Watchtower 3/4/19 for ProTraders – Plan Your Specs

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin


Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy.


Late this past week we got our first taste of Modern Horizons. As far as card reveals went, one could apply the word “stingy.” Shown were Cabal Therapist, a card that undoubtedly tickled longtime Legacy players and Arrested Development fans, and Serra the Benevolent, a planeswalker card of Magic icon Serra. You know, from Serra Angel. (I’m admittedly underwhelmed by the card, but at the very least it invalidates the hell out of Worship. Which depicts Serra. Irony, or something.) Neither of these cards confirmed any mechanics, and at best told us two things: there may be a graveyard component to the set, and white has fliers. Difficult to make use of the insight that white will have creatures with flying. Rather, the truly useful information came in some of the other tidbits that were released.

Mox Opal

Price Today: $85
Possible Price: $150

That tidbit is the fact that every single card in Horizons will be new to Modern. It’s the inverse of this that we’re working with; if every card is new to Modern, it means no cards existing in Modern will be in Horizons. Which means no reprints. No reprints of Modern-legal cards in a set likely to inspire more excitement in the format than Modern Masters. Hell, barely less excitement than the announcement of the format itself. Furthermore, this is taking up the summer slot, which means no Battlebond or Conspiracy style set to sneak a few reprints into. Taken collectively, this is making existing Modern cards look real appetizing.

We’re starting with one of the biggest cards in the format, Mox Opal. Is there a card that costs more than Opal in Modern? It looks like just Jace. Liliana is close, but not quite there. Opal is an expensive card. Relative to Legacy it’s peanuts, where several format staples will run you a grand a copy. Still, a tough nut to swallow for aspiring, uhh, modernistas.

Well, I expect it to get worse. With no meaningful reprint venue this year, Opal is already ahead of the pack on dynamism. You’ll find it in both major flavors of affinity, Laternless, and a variety of other fringe strategies. No matter what Modern looks like, someone is going to be shoving a bunch of artifacts in their deck to take advantage of Opal. And now, as everyone gets excited about the format again, it’s likely there will refreshed enthusiasm for one of Modern’s most singularly powerful cards.

Between Scars of Mirrodin and Modern Masters 2017 there’s not a deep supply, and even shallower under $90. You’ll find a few sets, maybe? Then a few more up to $100, and then assorted beyond that. Without additional supply — and where’s it coming from? — Opal is poised to hit $150 this year.

Chalice of the Void

Price Today: $40
Possible Price: $90

Basically take everything I wrote about Opal and read it here too. It’s just short of being the most-played artifact in the format — that distinction is held by Aether Vial — showing up in a wide range of main decks and sideboards. And as the format gets lower, faster, and and more efficient, the value of Chalice rises, as a greater and greater percentage of spells in the format cost one or two, the ‘chalice numbers.’

I especially like Chalice because it’s unlikely Horizons is going to slow down Modern. Why would it? If they printed 250 cards that were a turn and a half slower than the existing format, the format simply wouldn’t change. No, they’re giving us some juice, and unless this release is paired with a B&R update that takes fifteen cards out of the format, it’s only going to pull decks closer to the ground.

Which is a disappointment, really. When Modern began you could attempt some truly ludicrous crap, and it was fine, because everyone was running around trying to win with Endless Whispers or whatever. Those decks were never good, mind you, but at least you could try them and they didn’t seem so offensively bad that you felt the need to use anime sleeves just to draw attention to an even greater atrocity in an attempt to distract from the fact that you were playing a veritable pile. Now, casting a spell that costs three is dangerous. I miss the loose, anything-goes sensation of Modern. I guess I’m just waiting for NuModern at this point.

Anyways, Chalice. Supply is healthy, with printings in Mirrodin, Modern Masters, and Masters 25. We don’t need to drain the supply in order for prices to move though. Once a few sets at $40 start selling it’s likely vendors will begin raising prices.

Fatestitcher

Price Today: $2
Possible Price: $9

I’ll go a slightly different direction for my last card this week. In 14th place of a recent MTGO Modern event was a Jeskai Ascendancy build that utilized, what else, Arclight Phoenix. This build appears to be less all-in than the old builds, which sought to power up a lethal Grapeshot. This build instead utilizes Phoenixes and a few Young Pyromancers to take advantage of a smaller number of Ascendancy triggers, maybe five, to quickly ramp to lethal. I’m amused, and it would be cool to see this become more than a one-event deck.

Those of you that have been around a few years will recognize the name Fatestitcher, and will likely recall Glittering Wish as well. Back when Ascendancy was printed this deck exploded into Modern, with turn two kills theoretically possible. (Back then it played Noble Hierarch to set up a turn three Ascendancy, which could then be activated with the then-legal Gitaxian Probe, which untapped your Hierarch, at which point you went ham. Cool deck.) Fatestitcher got caught up and moved a bunch of copies, and has since trickled back into the market as Ascendancy mostly disappeared. This recent success opens the door to a return of Fatestitcher, and let me tell you, available supply will not support a surge here. There’s maybe 20 playsets on the open market? At $2, this will absolutely disappear if the greater community gets a whiff of it being good. Remember, Fatestitcher has one single printing, which makes it somewhat of a rarity in today’s Magic. Should this deck catch on — which I am by no means implying it will — these will be gone in minutes.


Travis Allen has  been playing Magic: The Gathering since 1994, mostly in upstate New York. Ever since his first FNM he’s been trying to make playing Magic cheaper, and he first brought his perspective to MTGPrice in 2012. You can find his articles there weekly, as well as on the podcast MTG Fast Finance. [/hide]


The Watchtower 2/25/19 for ProTraders – Plan Your Specs

By: Travis Allen
@
wizardbumpin


Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy.


This weekend was, as they say, a “big get.” Autumn Burchett took down the first Mythic Championship (despite player stat screens with claims they had won several in the past). As Magic’s first non-binary champion, this win means a lot of things to a lot of people, which was evident when Autumn was nearly bowled over as their friends rushed the stage within seconds of Ikawa extending the hand. Rarely, even at the top level of the game, is such emotion evident at the moment of major victory. That it was is a testament to the cultural significance of the moment for a group historically underrepresented. Victories like these – where the narrative matters more than the trophy – are lasting successes for not just the individual, but for the greater Magic community.

It was still Standard though, and other than Kaya maybe gaining a few bucks, it was mostly irrelevant as far as we’re concerned.

Requiem Angel (Foil)

Price Today: $1
Possible Price: $5

I’m a bit shocked I’m writing about Requiem Angel this week, if only because I would have expected expected the price on her to have already moved. Angel is seemingly the most popular card in Teysa lists, the current hottest commander. In a deck packed as densely as possible with cards that give you a sacrifice outlet, and that pay you for sacrificing, cards that generate bodies that you’re actually happy to have die are few and far between. Angel does a lot of work here, giving you a stream of tokens that feed the engine.

Dark Ascension is the only foil printing of Angel, and there’s only one other printing anyways, Commander 2014. You’ll find roughly the supply you’d expect for a card from this era with a single printing and low-ish previous demand; about 30 vendors with maybe twice as many copies. That isn’t a glut of supply, but on the other hand, these aren’t going to be gone in 12 hours.

At under $1 each, it’s hard to feel like you can go wrong here. With a reprint in a Commander product, there’s precedent for using that as the reprint venue, should they choose to again. That doesn’t rule out other ancillary product, like the upcoming Modern set. We can be relatively confident in our foils though, especially if she makes it through the Modern product unscathed. After that, it’s just a matter of letting Teysa’s popularity continue to strain the supply. Forty people picking up a foil Angel pushes this price into the several dollar range easily, at which point you can buylist your $1 copies for $4 store credit and move on to something new.

Yahenni, Undying Partisan (Foil)

Price Today: $4
Possible Price: $9

If I had to pick a card that was surprisingly popular, it would be Yahenni. Yahenni has found his way into just about 7,500 lists on EDHREC. That’s an awesomely impressive number for a card from Kaladesh. That’s roughly the 75th most popular black card in the format. For context, that’s right about where Rise of the Dark Realms and Puppeteer Clique land. If you’ve played much EDH, you know those two are across from you at the table regularly.

Yahenni, like Requiem Angel, has found new purpose in Teysa. As a sacrifice outlet, he gives you on-demand, free sacrifices. Just last week I talked about how useful that functionality is, so if you want to read it, take a gander at that article. Beyond that, he grows as your opponent’s threats die, which, depending on the board state, can be many triggers quickly. As far as cake icing goes, that sac outlet making him indestructible is certainly sweet. In the face of a typical sweeper, you can lift your entire board up, piece by piece, getting plenty of value along the way, and find yourself with a fat partisan on the other side of things.

Popularity has pulled Yahenni’s price up to about $4 already, and that’s ‘with Teysa demand still new. He’s far too new to see a reprint, and given the pace EDH players build decks, it will be some number of weeks or months before Teysa demand for singles wanes. That won’t hamper growth though, as he was clearly popular even before this commander. I’d be shocked if you couldn’t get $10 for a foil copy before the end of this year.

Sunbird’s Invocation

Price Today: $4.50
Possible Price: $9

I stumbled across Jodah, Archmage Eternal while doing some other research, and it turns out he’s been doing well lately. Over the last month he’s the seventh most popular commander, which is a strong position. It’s also just outside of the typical three or four spots we’re more likely to focus on. Anywhere in the top 10 or 15 of the month is still a lot of attention, as that extrapolates out to the entire EDH deck building community.

It’s easy to see why Invocation would be popular in Jodah. Jodah is all about casting massive spells for much cheaper than you should. Invocation pays you for the CMC of those spells, not what you paid, so playing ten mana spells means you’re likely to get a eight or nine mana spell for free right after. Getting 17 mana worth of spells for five total mana is awfully tempting. You can make up Sunbird’s entire mana cost in a single cast. Of course, it’s useful elsewhere too, but decks that let you cast big spells for less mana is where Invocation shines.

Browsing SCG, you’ll see Invocation is in roughly the same boat as Angel and Yahenni. Supply is in the same general range, and we’re not worried about a foil reprint anytime soon. Demand should be relatively consistent for awhile, given that Jodah isn’t a brand new commander, so attrition should pull a few copies out of the market a week. Again, like the other two, a few months should pull enough copies off the market that the last few cheap copies get snapped up, and we’re looking at a double digit foil price.


Travis Allen has been playing Magic: The Gathering since 1994, mostly in upstate New York. Ever since his first FNM he’s been trying to make playing Magic cheaper, and he first brought his perspective to MTGPrice in 2012. You can find his articles there weekly, as well as on the podcast MTG Fast Finance.

The Watchtower 2/18/19 for ProTraders – Plan Your Specs

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin


Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy.


GP (MF) Memphis was this weekend. You wouldn’t really know by checking DailyMTG; they got rid of the coverage section it seems. The ‘Events’ header is still there, but not the coverage subheader. I’m sure if you went looking for all the old coverages they’re in there somewhere, but importantly, if you land on the site, you’d mostly have no idea that a large event occurred this weekend. In order to get the deets on the decklists (and winner), I had to check CFB’s site. Which, by the way, also isn’t really set up to display this sort of information. The GP coverage is in with the articles, and already pushed below the fold by Monday morning’s crop. Which is all a shame, really, since the top lists had some great variety. Sure there was a Nexus build, but there was also Mono-Blue Tempo, Gruul Midrange, Rakdos Midrange, Sultai Midrange…ok, maybe it was fairly midrange heavy. Still, a lot less people are going to know what happened at each GP. Not only is that a bummer, it means a lot less people are going to know when a cool card shows up and performs well. Which then means that even if it’s a good spec, it still might not go anywhere, because the data may not be there for people to look at and realize they should be sleeving copies. Maybe.

Altar of Dementia (Foil)

Price Today: $13
Possible Price: $25

In case you’ve forgotten, Altar of Dementia was in Conspiracy. It’s a useful card with a low cost. Milling your opponents out is a choice, especially if you’ve got a way to generate humongous or arbitrarily large creatures. You can target yourself, digging for specific cards in your graveyard, or looking for triggers, such as Sidisi may want you to. You’re also provided a free , instant-speed tool to remove creatures you control from the board, which has all sorts of uses: eating creatures you temporarily stole, killing them in response to animation triggers, exile effects, threatens, etc. While raw power level of milling a few cards is questionable, the utility of being able to sacrifice creatures on demand is secretly quite useful.

Conspiracy was nearly five years ago now, believe it or not. This summer’s product is also slated to be “Modern relevant,” or something similar to that. As best as I can tell, that Modern product is in the same slot that would be Conspiracy, Battlebond, etc. Conspiracy may return next year, but that’s, well, next year. Until then, where else are you going to see foil Altar of Dementias appear?

Foils are about $13 right now, but chances are you’ll pay closer to $15 unless you’re the first person to read this. Still, with how low supply is looking, I don’t think that’s bad news for you. With the card’s popularity in EDH (8.5k+ decks), the new demand coming from Teysa, and how unlikely we are to see this again anytime soon, prices should keep rising on foils.

Splendid Reclamation (Foil)

Price Today: $6
Possible Price: $13

While it hasn’t been on anyone’s lips in the general Magic community lately, Lord Windgrace has been a consistent performer on EDHREC. He’s 3rd or 4th on the most-built month after month, and frankly, that isn’t going to change. People love lands-matter as an EDH theme, and with so many new tools printed over the last few years, and more coming each set, that draw is only getting stronger. Gitrog Monster really kicked it off, and Windgrace has opened the door to a third color. Splendid Reclamation is now in just under 8k decks, which for a card only a few years old is fairly impressive.

As an EDH card, Reclamation has proven powerful and useful in strategies that can leverage it. We know that isn’t going to change. Reclamation also gets eyeballed in Modern every now and then as a potential combo piece. If you can dump 20 cards into your graveyard in a turn or two and then Reclamation, you’re generating a great deal of mana that you can then use to do something else cool with all the stuff you left behind. Maybe a deck never materializes, but it’s worth being aware of the potential.

Could this show up again somewhere? Yeah, probably. Realistically, just about anywhere. The name isn’t domain specific, and the ability is mechanically universal, so there’s nothing restricting its printing. The same could be said of most cards though, right? Many cards are technically reprint candidates every set, but they aren’t, because there’s only ~40 rares a set and WotC doesn’t want to and doesn’t need to reprint everything anyone may want to buy.

Foils at $6 are appealing, since every couple of Windgrace players are going to go looking for one, and the outside Modern combo shot is valid. This is basically on Oracle of Mul Daya trajectory, assuming nothing interferes. There’s one guy with 33 copies, which is a speedbump, but other than that, there’s not a lot out there.

Deepglow Skate

Price Today: $7.50
Possible Price: $20

If you’ve been listening to MTG Fast Finance the last week or two, you’ll know that we’ve got a read (and we’re hardly unique in this regard) that War of the Spark, the final Ravnica set, is going to be planeswalker themed. I won’t explain why here, listen to the cast for that. It’s the presumption we’re operating on though.

From that starting point, we want to look at cards that support planeswalker strategies, since a deluge of planeswalkers is going to draw attention to those types. There’s no shortage of options out there, and we’ve discussed some of them before. Today, we’re looking at Skate. It’s hard to imagine a better tool than Deepglow Skate in a planeswalker deck. It doubles the number of counters not on one permanent, but any number. Any number! Have four walkers in play? There’s a good chance you probably just got the ultimate them all after playing Skate. That is so absurd. And as a creature, there’s infinite ways to rebuy that Skate trigger, so that you can keep doing it. Winning a game with six or seven emblems is awfully cool.

Supply is available, but not deep. There’s 50 or 60 on TCG, and then roughly that many on SCG too. That’s a fair bit, for sure, but when you consider how many people may start building walker decks after a set with 7, or 15, or 30 hits shelves, you can see how 100 copies of Skate could go out the window right quick.

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Travis Allen has  been playing Magic: The Gathering since 1994, mostly in upstate New York. Ever since his first FNM he’s been trying to make playing Magic cheaper, and he first brought his perspective to MTGPrice in 2012. You can find his articles there weekly, as well as on the podcast MTG Fast Finance.


The Watchtower 2/11/19 for ProTraders – Plan Your Specs

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin


Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy.


MagicFest Toronto was a good time (although you wouldn’t know by looking at the website other than twitter dot com, since WotC has self-imposed media blackouts on gatherings of paper Magic). The floor was humming, there was plenty of action at vendor booths even late into Saturday, two Taking Turns decks lost their win-and-ins, and Toronto continued to impress as a city. Those vendor binders are no joke, with James and I finding plenty of deals on Saturday afternoon. I recall just as we started to poke through them that I didn’t really understand how there could be value left, since by now I’d expect players with a more active memory of card prices to have picked them over. That was not the case though, with multiple $5 foil Blood Artists to be found, under-priced Spire of Industries, and even a $15 foil Geth’s Grimoire. Add in the excellent donuts, the literal duck heart, and an impressively inexpensive barcade, and I was glad to be there.

Thing in the Ice (Foil)

Price Today: $22
Possible Price: $40

Without question the biggest story in Modern lately has been just how big of an impact Arclight Phoenix has made. Initially completely overlooked, it has now become a dominant force in both competitive formats. There were two in the top 8 of Toronto, and that same result can be found in basically every Modern event, whether it’s a Grand Prix or an MTGO daily.

A ubiquitous component of most Arclight builds is Thing in the Ice. Since the deck plans on casting so many instants and sorceries for Arclight, TiTI is a natural addition. Get rid of any blockers, hit their face hard, etc. etc. TiTI fills the role well. With the performance Arclight has been giving for the last month now, TiTI is fast becoming one of the most played creatures in the format – 10th right now, according to MTGGoldfish.

Foils start at $22, and they don’t last long. They climb into $26 and $28 after barely a playset. Looking at the full supply, regardless of price, there’s less than 40 copies. With how popular TiTI is in Modern right now, how unlikely that is to change (since when are cheap blue spells not going to be good), foil TiTIs are looking like a short to mid term guarantee.

Spirebluff Canal (Foil)

Price Today: $19
Possible Price: $40

How does one cast those TiTIs and Lightning Bolts? With Spirebluff Canal, of course. The enemy-paired yin to Scars of Mirrodin’s yang, it quickly found a home in the format, which had been eager to see it and Blooming Marsh. (In contrast, nobody was really eager for Concealed Courtyard.) Admittedly I began by looking into Marsh, as I expected that to foreshadow better returns, but there just isn’t a lot of usage of the card at the moment. While the two The Rock decks made good use of it on Saturday, it simply isn’t seeing a lot of reps. That may change in the future – and with it, Marsh’s prospects – but for now, Canal is where the action is.

Izzet Phoenix is certainly the driving force behind Canal today, though there’s lots of decks leveraging the powerful intersection of its colors and speed. UR Living End builds are certain to run it, and really, any Electrodominance decks. Storm and various flavors of Blue Moon tend to want copies as well. Moving forward, I doubt this will change. Why would it? Izzet is a well established color pair that has proven time and time again that it has the chops to hang in Modern, even before Canal. Now that they have access to a land that so perfectly supports the lightning-quick gameplay that both colors are wont to play, we’re almost guaranteed to find a Canal deck in the top meta on any given day, whether or not Arclight Phoenix is involved.

Anyways, prices run similar to TiTI. $18 will buy you a copy, but for your second, it’s going to be $20 or more. There are eight foil playsets with copies less than $30, and then the market is gone. Prerelease copies aren’t any bountiful. Given what Blackcleave Cliffs managed, I’d be surprised if we don’t see $40+ Canals in the next several months.

As Foretold

Price Today: $8
Possible Price: $17

A card I’d love to see do well simply because it’s cool, and who doesn’t love cool cards. From the get go As Foretold, affectionately ‘AF’ from here on out, was noticed by anyone that could read. It’s three mana, casts free spells every single turn, including the one you play it. And has the nifty feature of playing “free” spells for actual free. Bingo! I’m still hoping it will break Restore Balance, but until then, it’s still doing work with Ancestral Vision and Living End.

Most recently someone ran UR Living End in what seem to be back-to-back MTGO Modern leagues, and earned 8th place and 1st place respectively. The list is straightforward, with 12 cycling creatures, Living End, Electrodominance, Ancestral Vision, and of course, AF. Between the 12 cyclers and a set of AV, plus some bonus Izzet charms, I have to imagine it’s not hard to plow through 10 or 15 cards pretty quickly. I especially love that with AF in play, you can chain AVs.

I was torn between looking at non-foils and foils of AF. The non-foil prices are what’s listed, with demand for this likely to come from people needing sets for competitive Modern play. Since demand would be “new,” rather than established as with TiTI or Canal, there will be a rush for non-foils first. If a strategy establishes itself, then foils will get eaten up shortly after.

Supply is deeper than TiTI or Canal, but not by all that much. There’s maybe 20 playsets on TCG, none on SCG, and no additional on CFB. Should one of these AF decks crack a paper Magic event – and that we hear about it, since apparently that’s a concern now – supply on these may drain rapidly.


Travis Allen has  been playing Magic: The Gathering since 1994, mostly in upstate New York. Ever since his first FNM he’s been trying to make playing Magic cheaper, and he first brought his perspective to MTGPrice in 2012. You can find his articles there weekly, as well as on the podcast MTG Fast Finance.

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