Casual Fridays

The Math of Universes Beyond: Lord of the Rings

Buckle up, people, because we’ve got a lot to talk about. Every set, Wizards gives us some information, and from that information, we can calculate very specific ratios and odds for what we can open out of Collector Booster packs.

So let’s get to it, and insert your own ‘find the precious’ joke here.

First of all, the whale in the kiddie pool. The One Ring (001/001) is the first serialized singleton in Magic’s history. There’s a couple other exceedingly rare, or one-of cards, in Magic’s history but those are prizes and giveaways. This time, someone’s going to open it. 

We’re outright told in the Collecting Lord of the Rings article that there’s less than a 0.00003% chance of opening the card. In math terms, that’s less than 0.0000003. If you remember reciprocals, that’s handy here as that decimal is also expressed as 1/3,333,333 and that’s how many packs we’re talking. 

Granted, there’s a ‘less than’ in that sentence, so it could be that there’s 3.5 million Collector Booster packs that are eligible. Or four million. We’re going to use the 3.3 million as a known figure, and know that the odds aren’t going to get better, just potentially worse. Wizards likes to be cagey about its actual sales numbers to the public, but this 3.3 million is a helpful guide for future sets.

So one pack in 3.3 million will have The One Ring. There’s three other serialized cards: Sol Ring with Elven art, Dwarven art, and Human art. Respectively, there’s 300 copies, 700 copies, and 900 copies. We know how many copies there are, and we know there’s at least 3.3 million packs, so we can estimate how many packs it would take to get one of those serialized Sol Rings.

# of copies# of packs needed% chance of opening in a Collector BoosterStated Odds
Elven Ring30011,1110.009%Less than 0.01%
Dwarven Ring7004,7620.0209%Less than 0.025%
Human Ring9003,7040.027%Less than 0.03%

That’s some long odds, but if Sam and Frodo could do it, don’t give up hope! Someone’s going to open these, and claim quite the windfall. 

Let’s talk for a moment about what we can get in terms of special treatments. Last week I wrote about the Box Toppers, and how every box gets a traditional foil. In Collector Boosters, those can show up in nonfoil in one slot, and Surge Foil in the final slot.

There are three special versions of LOTR cards: The Showcase Ring frame, the Borderless Scene cards, and Extended-Art cards. Every card has at least one of those, except for the Sagas, which exist only in regular frame foil and nonfoil. In the last slot in a Collector Booster, you can get any of these cards:

Type of Card (number of possible cards)RarityPercent chance for any card of that categoryPercent chance for a specific card of that category# of Collector Boosters needed to open for that card
Realms and Relics Surge Foil (30)Mythic0.8%0.026%3,846
Showcase Ring Treatment (14)Rare24.8%1.78%56.18
Showcase Ring Treatment (6)Mythic5.0%0.83%120
Borderless Lands (5)Rare9.9%1.98%50.5
Borderless Land (1)Mythic1.2%1.2%83.3
Borderless Scene Cards (21)Rare39.7%1.89%52.9
Borderless Scene Cards (9) Mythic8.7%0.97%103.45
Commander ‘Face’ Cards in FEA (8)Mythic9.9%1.23%80.8

Yes, you’re reading that right. Surge foil Box Toppers are going to be slightly more rare than Human Sol Rings. Given 3.3 million packs, there’s approximately 867 of each Surge Foil Box Topper. 

Of course, these aren’t serialized Surge Foils, and that’ll keep the prices lower. There’s also some less appealing choices in the list, such as a Thorn of Amethyst, that will mess with folks’ perception of what these prices should be. 

Here’s one thing that’s missing from that slot: Foil Extended-Art cards. Wizards hasn’t had a problem shoving all sorts of cards into one slot before, but this time, FEA cards from the main set and the Commander product aren’t going to be in the Collector Boosters. There’s slots for non-foil EA treatments, both main set and the Commander cards, but FEA got left out of these packs. 

Instead, they’ve been added to the Collector Booster Sample Packs, the two-card packs found inside of Commander precons. Here’s what’s officially in those: “a 2-card Collector Booster Sample Pack (contains 1 Traditional Foil or nonfoil special treatment card of rarity Rare or higher and 1 Traditional Foil special treatment Common or Uncommon card).” 

We know from the Collecting article that there are 28 rares and 9 mythics from the main set in the EA treatment. The Sample Packs have everything from the last slot in a CB, minus the Box Toppers and adding in those 13 FEA rares and 5 FEA mythics from the main set. There’s a stack of rares and mythics with no FEA version at all.

With all the options in a Sample Pack, here’s how the data breaks down:

Type of Card (number of possible cards)RarityPercent chance for any card of that categoryPercent chance for a specific card of that category# of Collector Booster Sample Packs needed to open for that card
Foil Extended Art from the Main Set (13):
Call of the Ring
Display of Power
Doors of Durin
Forge Anew
Horn of Gondor
Horn of the Mark
King of the Oathbreakers
Lotho, Corrupt Shirriff
Mithril Coat
Phial of Galadriel
Rangers of Ithilien
Sauron’s Ransom
Shelob, Child of Ungoliant		Rare19.3%1.48%67.5
Foil Extended Art from the Main Set (5)
Andúril, Flame of the West
Arwen, Mortal Queen
Palantír of Orthanc
Radagast the Brown
The One Ring		Mythic3.7%0.74%135
Showcase Ring Treatment (14)Rare20.7%1.48%67.5
Showcase Ring Treatment (6)Mythic4.4%0.74%135
Borderless Lands (5)Rare7.4%1.48%67.5
Borderless Land (1)Mythic0.74%0.74%135
Borderless Scene Cards (21)Rare31.1%1.48%67.5
Borderless Scene Cards (9) Mythic6.67%0.74%135
Commander ‘Face’ Cards in FEA (8)Mythic5.9%0.74%135

We don’t have the same estimates on how many Commander decks get made as we do for the number of Collector Boosters printed, but it’s still an intimidatingly small ratio to get that FEA mythic. 

With all that said, let’s come up with some relative rarities for individual cards/treatments: 

Card/treatment/setApprox. number of CBs needed to find one copy
Elven Sol Ring (Serialized xxx/300)11,111
Dwarven Sol Ring (xxx/700)4,762
Human Sol Ring (xxx/900)3,704
Surge Foil The Party Tree (The Great Henge)3,846
Ring Frame Foil Tom Bombadil120
Borderless Scene Foil The One Ring 103.45

The biggest takeaway here is that Surge foils are crazy rare, and preorder prices bear this out. We should look for these to sell quickly, or at very high price points. 

Secondarily, we want to keep a close eye on the FEA cards from the main set that are only in the Sample Packs. Especially if there’s no other special version of the card, these foils are going to be opened quite infrequently. Prices might rise fast, and quantities will be low.

I hope all this math helps inform your buying, both of packs and of cards, and as always, if you have data you want to show me, please reach out on Twitter or our Discord! 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Commander, Deck Doctor, EDH, James Chillcott

Hobbit Banquet: Your Complete Guide to Upgrading the Food & Fellowship Commander Deck

With the Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle Earth Magic the Gathering set now fully revealed it’s safe to say that Commander fans have plenty to be excited about. From fantastic new commanders to excellent new staples in multiple colors, the LOTR experiment seems set to be a great success even without the intense hunt for the 1/1 The One Ring.

Alongside the main set release, WoTC has also tabled the usual slate of four new pre-constructed Commander decks. In looking over the deck lists, one of the decks in particular jumped out at me as being particularly synergistic and primed for easy upgrades. Take a gander at the Food & Fellowship deck over here. And here is my upgraded version: The Hobbit’s Banquet.

It should come as no shock that Wizards wants their Frodo and Sam deck to be popular, but given that Food has been one of the more underwhelming tokens in Commander play to date, the freshly acquired power level of this strategy based on all the new cards may catch many players off guard.

The first key pillar of strength in this list is your access to dual commanders. The partner ability has already proven to be highly effective in strategies like Tymna and Thrasios, and the synergy between Frodo and Sam is much more specific. Frodo’s role here is to leverage consistent life gain from food tokens and other sources of life gain to ensure that you can achieve all four levels of the ring tempting you by the mid-game, and in doing so, generate a ton of card advantage. Let’s review what the temptations the ring has to offer, shall we?

So along the way we get to keep choosing a new ring bearer, and eventually our ring bearer is legendary, can’t be blocked by creatures with greater power, loots on attack, forces blockers to be sacrificed at end of combat and hits all opponents for 3 if it hits a player. That’s a pretty good stack of bonuses, especially when the emblem can’t be interacted with and the bonuses last all game once you have them. Sure, they can keep killing your ring bearer, but the reality is that in this deck, they are going to have other threats to worry about that don’t care about attacking. This means Frodo will often get to do his job pretty well at least into the mid-game, where your combo kill plan can take over.

As the other half of your dynamic Commander duo, Sam is an excellent engine for any food deck. He guarantees food production every turn, and makes all food cheaper to activate by 50%! That’s a very important set of abilities for this deck, so generally speaking you will want to spend more resources protecting Sam than Frodo.


Food Engine Supporting Cast

While Sam and Frodo form the core of your synergy, their friends greatly expand your combo potential and all work together as a finely tuned value engine building towards draining or bleeding out the table.

Merry, Warden of Isengard and Pippin, Warden of Isengard provide excellent food synergy in this deck, and also help further your theme of constant access to key creatures via their partner ability enabling you to pull the missing warden out of your deck when you cast the other. Merry rewards artifact production with 1/1 lifelink tokens, which all of your token doublers interact with and the lifelink on those tokens assists with your life gain synergies. Pippen makes food tokens for one mana while also providing an overrun effect for the mid to late game once you have a pile of food. Both cards being halflings means they are also solid ring bearers and can make good use of Bilbo’s Ring.

Meriadoc Brandybuck provides backup for Sam’s food during the attack phase strategy. Banquet Guests cast into a board with four food tokens would cost WG for an 8/8 that can sac food to gain indestructible until end of turn, marking it as a sneaky Hogaak variant in this build. Frodo Baggins ramps up your incidence of ring temptations and provides an additional ring bearer option.

Rosie Cotton of South Lane makes one or more food tokens and rewards further token production of any kind with +1/+1 counters on any creature other than herself. This was very good in games where she showed up. Peregrin Took both doubles food production AND lets you trade food for cards. Excellent! Treebeard, Gracious Host was a monster in the games we played last night, adding two or more food to the table while immediately providing the threat of growing itself or a ring bearer to massive size in short order.

Lobelia, Defender of Bag End lets you sac your array of artifacts to either cast free spells or drain the table. Bilbo, Birthday Celebrant ramps up the life gain, and provides a ridiculous end game should said gain get out of control. Samwise Gamgee helps crank out food and then turn that into additional redundancy if you need to retrieve one of your many historic cards from the yard.

Token Doublers

Cards that can double (or quadruple or more!) your token output are fantastic in this deck. Not only are they ratcheting up your food production, but they also have a shot at multiplying incidental creature tokens in the build from cards like Farmer Cotton, as well as clues and treasure from Academy Manufactor or Smothering Tithe. As such, you will definitely want all of Parallel Lives, Anointed Procession, Mondrak Glory Dominus and possibly a Doubling Season in a flex slot. These cards all interact, to additionally multiply token production from 2x to 4x and beyond, so critical mass is a good way to end the game in combination with your drain effects. Chatterfang, Squirrel General is a natural fit here from multiple angles, providing a forest walking ring bearer, a ton of squirrel tokens to double and some creature control on an adorable body.

Win Conditions

This deck doesn’t need to win in combat at all, allowing you to ignore a lot of what your opponents are up to in your average game and just focus on establishing and protecting your engine. Your primary route to victory will typically consist of overwhelming artifact token production leading to mass artifact sac to drain the table.

Agent of the Iron Throne (CLB) can’t be used as a background in the command zone here but it is still excellent in the 99 given that you have two commanders and are likely to have one in play to bleed the table whenever you sac artifacts. Nadier’s Nightblade (CMR) is even better, as it loses the requirement for a commander to be present, and drains rather than bleeds. And of course Mirkwood Bats is the nastiest of all, bleeding each opponent on both your token creation AND sacrifice.

Disciple of the Vault can only bleed one opponent at a time, but it does so whenever anyone sacs a treasure so it seriously punishes a treasure heavy pod for just one black mana.Vito, Thorn of the Dusk Rose and Sanguine Bond punish a single opponent for your constant life gain. Add in Exquisite Blood to complete the two card combo if you’re into that sort of thing. Bloodchief Ascension furthers your table drain shenanigans.

I prefer Protection Racket in my drain focused decks, but you may decide to find room for Black Market Connections as an alternative. Finally, Felidar Sovereign presents a must kill threat, lest you win the game on the following turn. Aetherflux Reservoir can fill a similar role. I haven’t included Bolas’s Citadel here, but that’s also an option.

Protection Spells

As with most low slung creature combo decks, you are particularly vulnerable to sweepers and given that your action relies heavily on both creatures and artifacts, you aren’t going to be looking to run many sweepers of your own. Instead, you will likely want some efficient point removal, defensive enchantments and a quiver of instant speed protection spells to protect your creature combo engines.

Heroic Intervention, Teferi’s Protection, Akroma’s Will and Clever Concealment provide an excellent core protection package. Given your access to dual commanders, find room for Flawless Maneuver if you like instead of my chosen Shalai, Voice of Plenty. Serra Paragon recovers most of what you might care about ending up in your graveyard.

The One Ring provides a turn cycle of respite from most threats with trailing card draw balanced against life loss you can easily stomach given all of your food tokens.  Bilbo’s Ring does excellent work in this deck full of hobbits and ring tempting, making sure your ring bearer is unblockable and hexproof on your turn and drawing a card per attack cycle in a deck that could care less about the single life loss. When the ring is on Frodo, you get to draw up to 3 cards per attack via the combination of rings and abilities.

Flowering of the White Tree puts a tax on targeting your various legendary ring bearers and combo pieces, while simultaneously turning them into bigger threats and doubling your creature token size. Boromir, Warden of the Tower is a fresh white EDH staple that does double duty here, protecting your team and shutting down cascade shenanigans, pitch spells and any other free spells your opponents are trying to leverage. Samwise the Stouthearted provides additional protection for your key engine pieces while adding a ring temptation trigger.

Removal

I’ve chosen to go light on removal here, but season to taste. For now I’m running just Path to Exile, Swords to Plowshares, and Claim the Precious to deal with key threats. Voracious Fell Beast provides a solid ring bearer that can kill three creatures and make three food tokens. Beyond that you’re looking to race to the end game by draining the table so get your your spices and get cooking.


Life Gain Doublers

Boon of Reflection neatly doubles all your life gain. So does Rhox Faithmender and both cards are auto includes here.

Utility Cards

The Ring Tempts You ensures you max the ring benefits quickly and draws cards everytime you name a ring bearer, again, for life you can generally afford to lose. Lotho, Corrupt Sherriff is a great commander in its own right, and does solid work here generating treasure tokens at largely irrelevant cost of life. Likewise, Orchish Bowmasters is a great new black EDH staple that does the same kind of work here as Lotho, namely via punishing opponents who are trying to do too much by pinging any target and providing creature tokens that can end up doubled if you don’t already have one. Rapacious Guest adds additional synergies between food and the attack step.

The Great Henge isn’t at it’s best here, but as The Party Tree box topper, it still is likely to cost 4 mana or so in the mid-game and provide card advantage, mana ramp and consistent life gain. Shadowspear helps ensure you have consistent access to lifegain and trample for your ring bearer, with the side benefit of letting you remove hexproof and indestructible from opposing threats, and can be searched up with Urza’s Saga.  Revive the Shire gives you a regrowth effect that also incidentally makes a food. Delighted Halfing provides an additional Cavern of Souls style protection from counterspells on key legendary spells, of which this deck has plenty. Gilded Goose doubles as mana and food production, so it’s a no-brainer. Trail of Crumbs ties everything together, both generating food and allowing you to turn food into cards.

Blind Obedience slows your opponents down while letting you leverage spells cast into additional table drain. Shelob, Child of Ungoliant might be a hot new spider commander but she also does solid work in this deck as a massive threat with built in protection and the ability to significantly upgrade dead utility creatures from your opponents into food with upside. Denethor, Ruling Steward provides additional table drain, and his creature replacement ability interacts really well with your token doublers. Sheoldred, the Apocalypse bleeds your opponents for card draw while boosting your life gain and providing a solid ring bearer.

War of the Last Alliance searches up two key legends out of your deck and then sets up a big attack phase while tempting your ring bearer. Of Herbs and Stewed Rabbit grows a creature, draws a card and makes two food, capping off with a big creature token payoff. Dauthi Voidwalker does its usual thing here, keeping opposing yards in check while also presenting a nasty ring bearer. Angelic Accord rewards your constant life gain with 4/4 angel threats that can present an alternate win condition. Inkshield goes a step further, heading off a potential killing blow from an opponent and likely unleashing a devastating torrent of tokens from your token doubler effects. Kambal, Consul of Allocation provides additional incidental drain and Esper Sentinel draws cards for minimal cost as per usual and Smothering Tithe does the same for treasures that might get doubled. Necropotence cleanly draws a ton of cards given your life gain potential.

Nasty End and Deadly Dispute both allow you to trade up easily on cards in a deck with so many cheap Legends and artifacts. I’ve been trimming tutors from my decks lately, but clearly Worldy Tutor, Vampiric Tutor, Eladamri’s Call, Demonic Tutor and so forth can all boost your consistency in high powered pods.

Key Lands

The Shire offers additional food production which is perfect here. Minas Tirith provides optional card draw during your frequent attacks and rarely comes into play tapped.

Because you’re gaining so much life, you can absolutely lean into the pain lands in this deck and run Mana Confluence, City of Brass, Horizon Canopy, Ancient Tomb, Brushland, Caves of Koilos and Silent Clearing.

Yavimaya, Cradle of Growth and Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth auto fix for two of your main colors. If you’ve got them, the full suite of fetch lands and shock lands are a lock. Add as many of the CMR/CLB duals as you have on color. Urza’s Saga can get half of the Cat Oven combo or Shadowspear, Sol Ring or Mana Crypt. If you’ve got a Gaea’s Cradle it will do work here. With so many powerful enchantments in the deck, Hall of Heliod’s Generosity is likely to do work. Volrath’s Stronghold does the same for your key Legends.


The Specs

Now from an MTGFinance perspective, speculators and players should likely focus on cards with lower supply, less printings and a high chance of being added to variants on this build.

A couple of key options include:

– Academy Manufactor FEAs, $16 and climbing with plenty of existing EDH demand being expanded upon with the advent of this food deck
– Boon Reflection, last seen in Double Masters and available near $5 in both foil and non-foil though it could see a reprint in a Secret Lair or Commander Masters this year
– Rhox Faithmender foils, single printing from 2013, currently near $10 but headed to $20+ if it doesn’t catch a reprint
– Feasting Troll King is a solid threat in this deck if your mana base can support it, and FEAs are single printing, low supply and sitting at about $10.
– Angelic Accord hasn’t caught a reprint since IMA, and foils are sitting hear $6 with very low supply
– This deck generates pressure for Parallel Lives, Anointed Procession and Doubling Season, but that pressure base is already large, and at least some of those have to catch a reprint in Commander Masters.

Here again is a link to my upgraded version of The Hobbit’s Banquet, all ready to serve as a jumping off point for your own culinary delights. Bon appetit!

James Chillcott is the owner of MTGPrice.com, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy art fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994. He has been producing MTGFinance content since 2012.

Floor Reports

PREMIUM MAGIC THE GATHERING CARD ARBITRAGE AT MAGICCON MINNEAPOLIS

Hi everyone! Thank you for the tremendous support and positive feedback I received from my first article! I could not ask for a warmer welcome.

As some of you know, I recently returned from MagicCon Minneapolis, which is the second of four major MTG conventions this year that will culminate in the World Championships in Las Vegas, Sep 22-24, 2023. The three days in Minneapolis allowed for the meeting of friends both old and new, countless games played, and much exciting business to be conducted. For this article I want to focus on one aspect of my experience, specifically my observations on collecting and trading premium Magic cards in the current environment. 

A key focus for me lately has been the recent releases of the serialized cards in MOM, the “giveaway” Secret Lair cards (limited each to 295 copies), and the Secret Lair Prize Cards (exclusive to MagicCon events). Why do we care about these cards in particular? The short answer is that MTG as a collectible card game is evolving and for all of you engaged in the MTG Finance community, it is imperative to take note of the opportunities for short term arbitrage associated with time boxed or location specific limited releases. Allow me to illustrate my point here through several personal anecdotes from the floor of Magiccon Minneapolis. 

First, let’s begin with the serialized MOM cards. As a refresher, WOTC decided to serialize in editions of 500 each of the 65 Multiverse Legend cards from MOM and the 5 new Praetors. That’s a whooping 35,000 serialized cards injected into the MTG community. The community’s feedback I would argue has been mixed. While everyone loves to see Ragavan in a masterpiece frame, not everyone is so enthused by a serial number stuck to a card with the same art with average foiling. Furthermore, no one can really understand why a bunch of uncommons (Daxos? Yargle?) get serialized treatment. These are indeed somewhat baffling production choices. On the other hand the unique art exclusive to the serialized versions of the new Praetors are stunning ultra low print run collectibles and the market has responded accordingly.


I arrived in Minneapolis with 8 serialized cards, including 3 serialized new Praetors (Elesh Norn, Sheoldred, Jin-Gitaxias). I had snapped up these Praetors during the prerelease windows (each at $800 or less), theorizing the unique art would make them quite desirable. I consigned the 8 serialized cards through a vendor friend of mine who had a booth, and 6 cards sold including all the Praetors (Elesh Norn $2000, Sheoldred $1700, Jin-Gitaxias $1500). A few points here worth reporting: 1) the vendor noted that many buyers came up looking for serialized cards, and the Praetors were some of the most asked about cards at the show; 2) all the serialized cards sold within 5% of the asking price; and 3) there were few serialized cards on the floor until the last day and almost no Praetors (whatever was tabled, ended up sold). 

My takeaway here is that serialized cards with top-notch unique art deserve special attention. When these cards also happen to be playable, as is the case with the Praetors, the demand and price support are readily found in the market. Note that even without unique art, I had success selling my serialized Emry, Lutri, and Zada at a profit – simply because they are playable and as a “one of a kind” serialized card, they found a home in someone’s very blinged-out EDH deck. It’s clear that serialized cards will exist from here on out given the announcements for LOTR. Though it may be tempting to brush off serialized cards as some lame marketing gimmick ported over from the sports card world, we have enough data at this point to show that there is clear demand from buyers for these cards as a new tier of premium MTG collectible. The fact that EDH is the dominant format for MTG and is a singleton format only helps the cause for serialized cards, as players are indeed willing to spend to “bling out” a favorite deck. The obvious corollary is that there’s going to be downward pressure on the basic versions of serialized cards, as the value in new sets is now spread out and skewed in favor of super-rare chase cards. 

The second anecdote I’d like to share concerns probably one of the ugliest MTG cards in recent memory (my subjective opinion shared by many!).  I present to you the Secret Lair 295 Giant Growth:

This specimen is limited to 295 copies, which were given out randomly to MagicCon attendees (with a bias towards content creators and kids). This Giant Growth is the second Secret Lair 295 card given out, with the first being the Shivan Dragon (see above right), which was distributed at MagicCon Philly. The dust has settled on the Shivan Dragon, and we know that the current market price is around $2,000 based on extensive data points from Facebook sales. Giant Growth is virtually unplayable in every format. Given the troublesome art and the lack of playability, a couple vendors I know of took the brave step of paying $500 for the Giant Growth as the first copies hit the floor. I immediately went and bought 2 copies each at $600. One vendor professed that the card probably should be worth $200 as it’s so unappealing and was worried he’s taking a bath by even paying $500. My own logic however was that the card is a serialized release tied to a major MTG event. While this is no Shivan Dragon, there will surely be foreign buyers and other premium collectors that would pay $800? Even $1,000?  Within hours I had my answer. SCG said they were buying copies at $1,000 (which came down eventually to $500 during the weekend), and on Facebook, copies sold to collectors pretty briskly at $800-1,000 (as I’m writing this article, this is still the market price). I sold both my copies on the first day within hours of receiving them for $1,000 each, pocketing $400 profit per copy. Sweet!

Lessons learned? The principle of scarcity is relevant here in that the limited supply of this card, which was released within a very narrow window, created its own demand. Collectors and vendors did not want to miss out, and this pretty mediocre card still found its support in the market at a robust price. With these limited releases, especially with cards that are mediocre at best, it’s important to move quickly and take advantage of scarcity value. You need to know your outs (Facebook groups and Twitter), and be disciplined and informed with the right data (i.e., Shivan Dragon 295 is $2,000, so an out for Giant Growth at $1,000 is more than respectable). We can expect more of these 295 cards will appear in MagicCon Barcelona and Vegas. If offered the opportunity to buy a mysterious 295 card on site for $500, would you? The answer may well deserve to be yes, especially if the print runs and singles event releases stay consistent.

My last anecdote concerns a very special card shown here:

Ragavan needs no introduction, but this is the Secret Lair Prize version. This card exists in foil only with a total population of 128 copies to be distributed during the four MagicCon events this year. To date, 64 copies have been put into circulation, and it’s worthwhile to study the price behavior for this card. I attended MagicCon Philly and was an aggressive buyer of this card as soon as copies came into circulation. Vendors had originally buylisted the card at $1,000, then $1,250, and eventually close to $2,000. It became clear that there was extraordinary demand, as the art is highly unique and desirable to many for this truly iconic card. I was able to procure two copies of this card at $2,200 and $2,400, which I then sold shortly after Philly for $2,800 and $3,300. I flag this particular card because coincidentally in Philly, the Multiverse Legend version of Ragavan was announced including a serialized edition. Many thought that this Secret Lair Prize version was doomed for failure because the same card is being hit for reprint twice in succession and both in a premium treatment. 

The question is what happened in Minneapolis? Instead of seeing any price pressure, the Secret Lair Prize Ragavan saw a significant price increase. Vendors told me they had to pay $2,400 to $2,800 in buylist just to get a copy. Most copies procured also had ready buyers on the back end. Meanwhile, serialized Ragavans (not special numbers) have slipped to the $1,200 range even when many swore that the Masterpiece frame can’t be beat. It is clear that yet again, the art matters and for a staple card like Ragavan, the very limited number of 128 copies will carry the day. It does not matter that a Masterpiece frame exists, as that art treatment is printed into oblivion now and the serialized version of Ragavan is the same card. 

Recognizing this unique price trend, I suspect that this Ragavan may see yet another ratchet, especially in 6 to 12 months once all copies are given out. I opted to reinvest some of my gains from above into a personal copy.  

I hope the above stories from the floor provide you all with some interesting windows into how the MTG community is responding to the recent limited and special edition cards. I will look forward to reporting again soon when LOTR drops and we see some numbered rings enter the market and we get a glimpse of how the market forms on 1900 serialized Sol Rings and the mighty single copy of The One Ring. Until next time!

Casual Fridays

Humans, Humans, Everywhere!

There’s a lot going on in the Lord of the Rings set. In the early previews, we’ve gotten a pretty fantastic build-around Commander, who does something unique in a prevalent tribe and in some new colors:

Éowyn, Shieldmaiden, is not a defensive Commander, despite her name. She wants a legion of Humans coming into play, attacking for a bunch, and drawing you cards. This looks to be a fun build, focusing on a tribe that doesn’t have a strong, thematic, multicolor Commander. There’s a couple members of the Kudro family, and several versions of Sigarda who want you to play Humans, but Éowyn tells you exactly what to do, preferably the turn she comes into play so you can get some bonuses immediately.

This is probably going to cause some spikes going forward, and let’s make a preliminary list and see what we can do right away.

I’m not going to lie: There’s a boatload and a half of choice for a Humans deck. Scryfall says there’s 2,037 humans in these colors, and while I think my choices are defensible, more will pop. That’s just the nature of things. Secondly, with Commander Masters coming, plus Secret Lairs, etc., reprints are going to hit some of these cards. It’s pretty certain that at least one of these will be reprinted soon, actually more than one because my first mention is a confirmed reprint for later this year.

Rick, Steadfast Leader ($50 or so) – I have said on podcasts and articles what a terrible idea it is for new cards to only be available in special forms like this. The Walking Dead Secret Lair was the first example of this, and they’ve gone back to this well, promising to use The List to put more copies out there. It’s been done for Stranger Things, it’s due for Street Fighter and the recent D&D set as well.

Rick will get reprinted in The List for Wilds of Eldraine, along with Negan and the whole crew. Rick is clearly the best of the bunch, giving two good abilities and a huge stat boost for only four mana. Being at $50 right now, this is a card you really want to have in any Human-based deck, and the good news is that The List copies, while only being available in nonfoil, promise to be a lot cheaper.

The originals, only available in foil, have a chance to appreciate from here and I think you can at least be able to move any copies you have from $50 to $75. It moves a couple copies a day, and offers a chance at some profit. At the least, get your personal copy now if you want a shiny version.

Esper Sentinel ($30 for the cheapest version, up to about $46 for the most expensive) – A very strong contender for a reprint in CMM in August, this does everything you want in a Humans deck. It draws you cards when your opponents do things they are guaranteed to do, and also offers you a chance to play a one-drop Human for Éowyn, play her, and profit.

Esper Sentinel has reached mega-staple status on EDHREC, being in 256,000 listed decks, and so the reprint is coming. Until it does, Éowyn is going to be part of why this card keeps rising higher and higher.

Hanweir Garrison ($5-$8) and Hanweir Battlements ($4-$9) – These are two cards that haven’t really had a deck that allows them to sing, but are perfect for Éowyn. We want haste, we want lots and lots of Humans, and everyone loves Melding cards for giant cards. 

The only thing that doesn’t work is that the Garrison’s attack trigger happens a little too late for Éowyn’s trigger, which is at the beginning of combat. Garrison is one of the fastest ways to get to six Humans, though, so when this starts climbing, be ready to cash in.

Grand Abolisher ($27 to $121) – Another card that’s begging for a reprint, the only foils of this from M12 are more than a hundred bucks. As useful Humans go, this one is worth the price of admission.

Having this in play gives you such a feeling of security, that nothing can go wrong. This ought to be in more decks, but it’s so noninteractive that I think Wizards has been hesitant to reprint it. I’m constantly surprised that it’s not played in Modern more. If it dodges a reprint in CMM this summer, we’ll see this grow as folks want the warm safety blanket.

Sakashima of a Thousand Faces ($27-$40), Sakashima the Impostor ($3 to $143) and Sakashima’s Student ($14, no foils) – It’s easy to forget that these aren’t just Clone effects, they are Humans and will work with lots of effects. You might not want them to come in as copies of your Humans, but you might also want them to copy your Commander, which two of them can do. 

Again, I’m expecting at least one of these to catch a reprint in Commander Masters, so speculate carefully, but these cards are also under pressure from clone themes and ninja decks, so this isn’t just a spec based on Éowyn.

Hero of Precinct One (all under $1) – Now let’s get to the cards that synergize best with Éowyn’s text box. In this instance, if you have the Hero, and cast Éowyn, you’ll get the trigger, create a token, and then Éowyn will see that you had a Human come into play and all of her fun happens. If you have even one other Human, you’ll immediately get a card.

This was from Ravnica Allegiance, so there’s no special versions, only regular and foil. This is a pretty cheap card to get a premium treatment now, but we’ll see about the reprints we get going forward. For now, buy a brick now and buylist them out for $2 each.

Outlaws’ Merriment (50¢ to $8) – There have been a lot of ways to potentially use this random effect, especially given the ‘party’ mechanic, but no matter which token you get, it’s good with Éowyn. It’s a damn shame that Assemble the Legion is Soldier tokens, but you get what you get. For the Merriment, I think I’d prefer to be stocked up on the super-cheap copies, though the FEA versions are also at their lowest:

As a mythic from the first FEA set, there aren’t a lot of these on TCG right now and if you’re going to go build Éowyn’s deck, this is an excellent place to start. The low number of copies is appealing on the FEA, but there’s definite brick potential in buying a whole lot under a dollar and buylisting them for double to triple that.

Thraben Doomsayer (25¢ to $3) – Foils at $3 would be the play here, as they are from 2012 and there are relatively few in circulation. Nonfoils were in Commander 2020 decks, and there’s a very large number of those around. Again, this as a play before Éowyn means you get all of Éowyn’s goodness on the turn she comes down, and I hope you’re never in a Fateful Hour situation.

Gallows at Willow Hill (25¢ to 75¢) – Finally, a pet card of mine when I had a Humans token deck a while ago. You will be amazed at the number of times you can activate this card with token makers like Call the Coppercoats, Increasing Devotion, Reverent Hoplite, etc. Reusable ways to destroy creatures is a great way to make up for how undersized your Humans are, and if there’s no good attacks, you can just solve target problem. I don’t think this will bite hard price-wise, but it’s an example of the random Humans and Human accessories we’re about to see spike.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

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