Early pre-order prices have come out for some of the mythics in March of the Machine, a set premiering the first new card type since Lorwyn gave us planeswalkers. As a result, the prices on these cards are mostly very high, and while I’m unlikely to be buying anything right now, it’s always a good idea to at least look and consider before dismissing out of hand. 

We haven’t gotten all of the mythics yet, but we’ve gotten a peek at Battles. In this set, all of the Battles are Sieges, where you cast the card, it’s in play and you get an effect, then you choose an opponent to defend it. Each Siege has a number of defense counters, which apparently can be attacked and removed just as planeswalkers can have happen. When the last is removed, the card transforms, and you’re told what to do. Neat!

Let’s talk about the cards we’ve seen. Please note that these preorder prices are accurate as of Friday morning, but those prices can move fast.

Wrenn and Realmbreaker (preordering for around $60) – There’s no doubt this is a good card, and anyone who’s played Chromatic Lantern knows how sweet it is to just tap whatever lands and cast everything. That’s a good ability, especially when stapled to WaR’s regular suite of land animation, regrowing a permanent, and an emblem that I’ll concede to just about every time because I can’t beat that level of card advantage.

However, this preorder price is a doozy. MOM is juiced as hell, with a set of expensive reprints, serialized versions, and serialized versions of expensive reprints! This is a regular Standard set, though, and that means we’re about to open an enormous amount of product. This price will fall quite far, and you should absolutely sell any copies you open/trade for at the prerelease before it drops to $20.

Sword of Once and Future ($30) – It’s really unfair that the first Sword of X and Y basically got you two cards’ worth of value on the first hit, because every Sword after that has had to live up to that standard. Several of the Swords can get you there, but this last Sword requires the right deck to be good. It will be very good in that deck, casting a free two-CMC-or-less spell every time it connects, but you can’t recast the same spell due to the exile clause. I think completionists will want this card, but I’m not sure about everyone else and this price will tumble to $10 or less.

Thalia and The Gitrog Monster ($27) – If you like giving your opponents a hard time, this is your Commander. It’s a huge slowdown, near-impossible to beat in combat, and can turn excess lands into cards in hand. I think we’re going to see a lot of these decks in Commander pods, and in Standard, it might be enough to get there given how greedy most manabases are. The price will fall, but I think there will be just enough demand to keep it from plummeting too far down.

Archangel Elspeth ($20) – This price feels about right, and that’s weird for me to think. Most cards fall, and perhaps this is the one that doesn’t. This version of Elspeth protects itself with a token, upgrades that token so you go from offense to defense real quick, and has an ultimate that may or may not be worth it, depending on your deck. There’s a mono-white aggro deck in Standard right now that is going to play at least two copies of this card, can you imagine a curve of Adeline, Resplendent Cathar into this? 

Elspeth might actually rise from this price at the beginning, so be aware. If you wanted to get your copies now, knowing you play a deck that wants her, I’d say go for it.

Chandra, Hope’s Beacon ($25) – Most of the Izzet legendary creatures for Commander want you to be casting lots of instants and sorceries, and this Chandra is an auto-include for such decks. Double Vision isn’t expensive and gives the same static ability, but this Chandra jams on the gas hard for what those decks want. It’s an excellent card, it will decide Commander games, and it’s overpriced at $25. It’ll settle at $15 or so.

Monastery Mentor ($5) – This was already Pioneer legal, so don’t get your hopes up for a spike here. Regular nonfoils are going to be a buck or two, and maybe the fancier versions can get higher, but there’s a lot of sets and a lot of inventory. I just can’t see it climbing higher.

Zurgo and Ojutai ($15) – I am a Dragon enthusiast, and I am enthusiastic about this card. It’s card to cast at three colors, so it needs the right deck, but hitting right away (and hitting a battle!) gets you a card back right away. This is important, because your opponents will be envious and kill this creature right away. I adore everything about this card, but I also recognize that it’s tough to cast and not something most decks will try to do. I’m expecting to see this at half its current price or less.

Invasion of Tarkir ($20) – Again, as a Dragons player, I’m eager to try this card. It’s two mana to hit something for 6-8 points of damage in my average hand, and the flip side is probably an instant concession from most tables. We also have ample evidence that the regular versions of things that are Dragon-focused aren’t necessarily expensive, and I expect this to get to $5 or less for regular versions. Don’t forget that The Ur-Dragon is getting a reprint this August, and we’re going to see a lot of people building Dragon decks, so it might bounce in price quickly or never get cheap at all. (Club meetings are Tuesdays, I’m the EVP in charge of enthusiasm, welcome aboard!)

Invasion of Shandalar (no price yet) – Another card that’s hard to argue with in most decks playing Green, this is pretty darn amazing. Three permanents is a lot, and hopefully at least one of them is a creature you can attack with. Outstanding Commander card, and something I’d like to stock up on when these are at their cheapest near the end of summer.

Invasion of Ravnica ($23) – A cute trick of a card, this is incredibly niche. It’s a niche that fits into a surprising amount of decks, though, and while I don’t think it’ll be expensive, I think it will get a lot of people trying it out. If you have a two-color Commander, you ought to consider the card. If you’ve got a lot of two-color spells, you should give it a try. Lots of decks can use a 5 mana ‘exile almost any permanent’ spell. Price-wise, this will be under $10 in a few weeks, so you don’t need to be in a hurry.

Invasion of New Phyrexia ($27) – The comparisons to Kamigawa’s Eiganjo Uprising are merited, as this is a very powerful spell for its cost. There is no point where it’s horrible, though three mana for a single 2/2 vigilance is below the curve. If you need it, then you need it. Don’t overlook that you can bounce the battle to your hand, as it’s a permanent. Recasting it should be backbreaking in most games. 

Should you flip into Teferi’s newest card, it’s also very powerful. The plus is great if you want filtering or have creatures, the emblem gets you farther ahead, and the minus three works great with vigilance creatures, which you happen to have!

I don’t think this will fall very far, price-wise. It fits into a lot of Commander decks, is likely to see some play in Standard, and being as modal as it is, it’s new and amazing. I’m doubtful it will fall much below $20 for a while, but it might by Christmas.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

 I’ve written hundred of articles about cards worth buying, but I don’t think I’ve ever done a handy summary of the main reasons why I avoid buying cards. James and I talk about this on the MTG Fast Finance podcast, where we go over our picks and reader picks, but I felt it was high time for a compilation of things that steer me away.

Plus, we’re in a perfect storm of buying opportunities. We know a lot about what’s coming (Tom Bombadil, Slivers, a sheet of Legendary reprints, etc.) and we know there’s a lot of reprints coming up as well. Time to examine the categories and qualities that make for a bad spec!

One joke we make is that there’s no bad specs, only long-term ones. I can attest to this, having made multiple purchases of cards that just didn’t get there. Perhaps I’ll examine the longest-term holds I currently have in the future, but when you’re speculating on cards, one of the risks is that you buy a hundred copies of Yawgmoth’s Vile Offering and they go nowhere.

Red Flag #1: Preconstructed deck reprints

Wizards puts a certain amount of value into the Commander-focused precon decks. Needs to be enough that people feel they are getting their money’s worth, but not so much that big operations can just take all the decks and crack them for singles. It’s a fine line to walk, made worse by the timing. They have to decide months, sometimes years in advance what to put in these decks. 

One of the things that we talk about a lot is getting premium versions of a card, because those are less likely to be reprinted. The worst feeling for me as the owner of 104 copies of regular frame, nonfoil Yawgmoth’s Vile Offering is seeing that card in a precon deck. The only difference between what I have and what’s in the deck is a symbol. Sometimes that symbol is worth a lot due to scarcity factors, but generally it’s a dollar or two at most. 

So one of the things I watch out for, especially when there’s many things on the horizon, is what version of a card I’m going for. There’s often profit to be made in the basic versions of cards, but safety is found in the premium versions.

Red Flag #2: Too many premium versions 

A card can be a good spec but if there’s several options to choose from, it can be very tricky indeed. An example of this can be found in Modern Horizons 2: the enemy fetchlands.

That’s a card (and a cycle of cards honestly) that are crying out to be purchased. Modern Horizons 2 was opened for a long time, longer than anyone expected, and while some of the chase mythics are hot as can be (Ragavan and the pitch Elementals) a lot of the other cards and reprints have become quite reasonably priced.

Question is, do you buy the old border foil? The textured retro frame? The FEA versions? This is to go with the OG Zendikar ones, or the Expedition frame from Battle for Zendikar? Maybe the Zendikar Rising Expedition? Perhaps the unique art and lower supply present on the Secret Lair nonfoil?

Whenever possible, we want to focus on one special frame. Cards that have gotten a retro foil, a Secret Lair, and a FEA version mean that while all of them might well rise, they’ll all move together and move more slowly. For example, Sram, Senior Edificer:

The Retro foil from Time Spiral Remastered is the only special version, everything else is a foil regular frame. Focus on cards like that.

Red Flag #3: Regular foil versions

In the Collector Booster age, it’s become obvious that players don’t want just a shiny card, they want a rare shiny card. For cards that have a regular, a foil, an Extended Art and a FEA, the first three versions of the card tend to be close together in price. Foil cards in the regular frame might as well be regular nonfoils, in terms of their price. 

Foils are just not prioritized the same way other versions are. Nonfoils are better for sanctioned play, as there’s no curling issues. Special-frame nonfoils are often more valuable than original-frame foils, making the choice that much simpler. The only time I’ve ever gone after regular foils has been when they are the last to spike, the leftovers. Otherwise, I’m staying away.

Red Flag #4: Cards that have been outclassed/obsolete 

Magic has had something like 25,000 unique cards printed in its lifetime. Power creep renders some cards worse than others, or just not good enough for the modern times. That’s perfectly okay, that’s the sign of a healthy game, it’s evolving past its origins. 

Some cards from early sets are ridiculously strong, undercosted, or did broken things. Others were too synergistic, and will never be reprinted. Consider a card like Ancient Ziggurat vs. Unclaimed Territory. Why would I ever spec on a strictly worse card?

Exceptions here can include things like a tiny supply or being on the Reserve List. there are some breathtakingly bad cards on that list, and some of them have gone through notable spikes for that reason and that reason alone. Would you believe me if I told you that in 2016, Narwhal spiked to ten bucks on RL hype?

I hope this list of what not to do helps guide your future efforts, and explains what we’re up to when we’re making picks. It’s important to avoid the bad, as well as buy the good stuff!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.