So last week was originally intended to be sort of a “Week 1 Winners and Losers” bit, along the lines of what I have done in the past. That piece didn’t go up due to scheduling complications courtesy of Hurricane Matthew- fast-forward to THIS week, where the Pro Tour is starting on my USUAL publishing day. What I have decided to do is include the parts of last week’s piece that are still relevant (updating where necessary), while including my PT expectations as well.
Obligatory “Blue Hurricane” insert.
LOSER: CHANDRA, TORCH OF DEFIANCE: Chandra was almost inevitably going to be branded as a bust coming out of the gate. It is nearly impossible for a planeswalker to perform well enough to justify a $60 price tag in a new format, and Chandra’s intangibles (RR casting cost, the fact that she’s red at all) only made that harder. Of the mono red planeswalkers, Koth of the Hammer probably had the best career; all of the others were gadget roleplayers at best (Sarkhan Dragonspeaker falls somewhere in the middle). I’m not sure where Chandra’s home is, in the sense that she doesn’t seem to play any singular role exceptionally well. Ignoring Jace, the Mind Sculptor, all of the best planeswalkers can be slotted into fairly definitive roles- Liliana of the Veil is the Pox/grindy attrition planeswalker, Ajani Vengeant is the Zoo topper, Nahiri (the good one) fit perfectly into Modern Jeskai control strategies. If Chandra is able to have a dominant weekend at the Pro Tour (multiple 4x decks in the Top 8, including some camera time in the finals), then its possible that the price bounces back. More likely, however, is that Masterpieces continue to exert downward pressure on rares and mythics, and Chandra eventually bottoms out somewhere around $18-22. At this point, the only thing keeping her up is SCG not wanting to drop the price from 60 to 30 so quickly.
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Welcome back to the second half of my Standard Kaladesh review. I actually may have saved a bit TOO much for today, so we REALLY gotta get started. You can find last week’s installment here.
Standard is the most popular format in competitive Magic, but it has never really been very popular. Maybe it’s better to say that it is the most ‘populous’ format. Either way, Standard has the de facto largest market share of Magic formats, and is the face of competitive Magic’s brand.
I have heard people complain about every Standard format for the last 12+ years- sometimes justified and other times not. As we take our first steps into the Masterpiece Era, it’s important to understand that Standard is going to be the primary factor for pricing on any new1 cards, as well as potentially creating a very distinct life cycle pattern. As we review Kaladesh from the perspective of a Standard player, we are going to simultaneously hit on a few key points in this new post-Masterpiece economy.
Cataclysmic Gearhulk: I want to go over the Gearhulks individually, because they are being broadcast early on as a pretty significant element in the set. This isn’t a flavor statement, since I’m not sure what their role is there, but as the latest cycle of “titans”, these fill a pretty big role as marquee single-color threats. Despite the longevity of Primeval Titan in other formats, which often overshadows his (?) siblings, its important to remember that all five of the M11 Titans saw action in Standard. The Gearhulks are not as pushed as the Titans as a whole, but they do represent an evolution of the cycle that is understated yet significant. The Titans were all 6/6s for 4CC, whereas the Gearhulks cost EITHER 3CC or 4CC (and each with unique P/Ts). Cataclysmic Gearhulk coming down on turn 5 is significant because it saves you an additional turn against opposing strategies that are trying to go wide with threats. Although this isn’t templated the same as Tragic Arrogance (your opponent can pick which of their cards stay), it’s still an extremely strong effect that comes with a very defensive 4/5 Vigilance. If Kaladesh Standard shakes out to rely heavily on board presence, it’s likely that this is one of the best of the cycle. I don’t think its coincidence that these are all five Masterpieces.
Tragically Arrogant Robot.
Torrential Gearhulk: Okay, so this is probably the worst of the cycle, at least early on. Because Torrential Gearhulk is unable to target sorceries, there are no enticing combinations currently in Standard (the only mythic Instant is Kozilek’s Return, a card that is actually WORSE OFF being cast off of Gearhulk rather than staying in the graveyard). As things currently stand, this is going to very often just re-buy a removal spell and serve as a clean, if underwhelming, tempo play. It’s possible that WotC is holding back on the big splashy options until Gearhulk is closer to rotation, or that it proved too risky and we see all of the game-changing spells as sorceries for the next year and a half. This is going to be objectively better in formats with more high-impact instants, but those formats simultaneously become less forgiving for six mana creatures.
Noxious Gearhulk: Like its white counterpart, Noxious Gearhulk is a card that I expect to be better in practice than on paper. In fact, the two represent the varying extremes of threat dimensions, Noxious serving as an answer to a single opposing creature, Cataclysmic excelling against several individually weak creatures. Given that one of the set’s main mechanics (Fabricate) allows players to decide in game how they want their board to develop, it’s possible that these two ultimately work fairly well together. Menace is huge, especially in environments where Noxious Gearhulk is already otherwise a playable card. This is the least impressive of the three so far (and probably of the whole set) outside of Standard, but I don’t know that any of these are going to get serious play anywhere else.
Shriekmaw Robot.
Combustible Gearhulk: Just like the blue one, this Gearhulk is better in a combo shell than a traditional midrange battlecruiser strategy. Fortunately, we have the cards to “enable” Combustible in Emrakul, Ulamog, and uh… Emrakul. It’s possible that you will cast this card and LITERALLY win the game. Once. I don’t know that this deck exists outside of the realm of theory, but unless we also get Congregate at Dawn, expect this deck to be… swingy, at best. A strategy that rewards you for playing a critical mass of expensive spells is going to naturally suffer in the early stages of the game, meaning the fast decks can go to town, let you draw 3, and then just attack around the Gearhulk and win, while the control strategies are given sufficient time to find an answer (or just counter your guy). The “best” Combustible Gearhulk deck will have to fundamentally restructure Magic deck-building and theory if it’s going to attain respectable ‘Tier 1’ status. I’ll buy in on this card when the Angels win the pennant.
Verdurous Gearhulk: Of the four ACTUAL Gearhulks, this one is likely the worst. That is not to say that this is a bad card. Verdurous Gearhulk has the most flexibility of any card in the cycle, ranging from a 3GG 8/8 Trampler (something that would have taken 1996 by storm), to a 3GG 4/4 that can change combat math in any manner of permutations. If there is a G/x strategy similar to the GW token decks of the recent past, it is very likely that some number of green Gearhulks find their way into the 75. This card is kept in the conversation by virtue of costing [5] and not [6].
Wears green, spreads it around, has a brother that makes it look bad- Aaron Rodgers Robot?
GEARHULK BREAKDOWN: The white and black ones are good, and are probably worth snagging sometime soon if you plan on playing a lot of constructed Magic (despite the usual new set tax). The blue and red ones are not quite ready for prime time, and at $6 each have plenty of room to fall after underwhelming out of the gate. Verdurous Gearhulk is the most situational, but surprisingly the most expensive. I don’t see a clear Day 1 strategy that I like for Greenhulk, so I’ll pass until supply forces a price cut.
Fumigate: Remember when we talked about Languish and Planar Outburst a few weeks back? Essentially the sentiment was that Planar Outburst was set to be the best Wrath of God effect after the rotation of Languish short of a playable alternative in Kaladesh. Fumigate is most certainly playable. Although Fumigate is priced at [5], the life gain addition does a good job of partially recouping the life lost from waiting an additional turn. In token-heavy strategies (a phrase I have typed quite a bit so far), this is likely to get you “back” roughly a turn, especially as creature power trends closer to 1. I think this makes a very strong case for control decks to have access to white mana and becomes one of the marquee anti-aggro spells in the format. If threat density becomes an issue for UW/x, I could see some number of Planar Outbursts serving as extra copies of the effect, but I think there are enough ways to win otherwise. At $3, just buy them now if you plan to play them.
Fumigate could lead to a Silent Spring for aggro decks.
The Kaladesh Fast-Lands: Lumping these together because they are coming into an environment where I expect their play will be very uniform. We are losing the Apocalypse pain lands at a time where enemy-pair strategies are still very popular. I expect most decks just play 3-4 copies of these, most specifically WR (a pair that plays fewer lands on average, but needs lots of double colors) and BG (a slower pair traditionally, but the one with the two most mana-specific colors). Slower colors will max out on creature lands first, but I still think these will be fairly uniform 4x in Standard. The price fluctuations are likely just due to some being “better” in Modern than others.
Smuggler’s Copter: This is starting to get some love going into the Prerelease Weekend as possibly the “best” vehicle for constructed. Testing results are still anecdotal at best, and likely to skew towards linear aggro decks, which tend to overperform in the early stages of a format’s life cycle. I’m not as impressed as other people seem to be, but I also think I like Fleetwheel Cruiser more. Vehicles are definitely going to take a while to figure out, at least beyond the semi-obvious RW Vehicle aggro deck. The upside here is that if you can otherwise animate a vehicle (Ensoul Artifact is sometimes played in Modern Affinity), you still get the combat abilities. Cool, but possibly not good enough.
I’m less impressed than most of you.
Scrapheap Scrounger: Possibly the best crew member for vehicles outside of RW. Unlike that reckless Wesley Crusher, who got his friends killed by attempting dangerous stunts. He should have been expelled from Starfleet Academy for his unbridled hubris.
Is there any surprise that I’m high on this card?
Demon of Dark Schemes: Okay so this… hang on a sec… *CRANKS DIO* THIS CARD IS METAL AS HECK. ANY MASSACRE WURM VARIANT IS GOING TO DESERVE A SECOND LOOK, ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN PREDICT TO SEE SOME PERCENTAGE OF TOKEN-BASED OR WIDE THREAT STRATEGIES. THE FACT THAT THIS HAS A TOTALLY VIABLE REANIMATION ABILITY AND A FREE SOURCE OF CONTINUOUS ENERGY GENERATION IS JUST THE GRAVY ON TOP. REMEMBER ALL THOSE GB DECKS RUNNING TRAVERSE THE ULVENWALD BEFORE? MAX OUT ON THOSE AND THIS IS AN EASY INCLUSION. *AIR GUITARS ALONG TO ‘RAINBOW IN THE DARK’*
Marionette Master: OBEY YOUR MASTER. MASTER. MASTER. MAAAAASTAAAARRRRRR.
Okay, so just a little programming note here at the top- today’s previously scheduled set review has been pushed back a week in light of recent events. You know exactly what I mean. Today is going to hinge on the announcement of Magic’s new Masterpiece Series, the various impacts it has had and will have moving forward, and then we will talk about the offerings in the Kaladesh edition in particular. My expectation right now is that future Masterpiece editions will not require an entire article, but we will see how that shakes out in a year from now.
Okay, so… wow. The Masterpiece Series. Huh.
This is probably the best way of verbalizing something I have been grasping at for a while, and I don’t think I quite got it myself until now. The market system that we have been operating has been changing over time, and I think it has reached the point where it is categorically different. The printed supply of new sets for the last year or so has seemed to sufficiently saturate the market, and the addition of Masterpiece sets seems to be intended, at least in part, to push sales. Per MaRo’s announcement on Monday:
Challenge #1: Keeping Standard Accessible
Standard is the most-played Constructed format. It’s designed as an entry point for players who wish to play Constructed Magic. Through market research and social media, we learned that many of the players who were interested in playing Standard felt it was something beyond their reach. We had to find ways to address this.
…
…we found that Zendikar Expeditionsdrove more players into the Battle for Zendikarblock, which resulted in greater accessibility for all the non-Expeditionscards. Zendikar Expeditionsactually made it easier to play Standard. Hmm, a way to address challenge #1.
I don’t want to pull too much from my original piece for this week, the Standard Set Review, but I think its important to realize that a major driver of the Masterpiece Series is pushing more people towards participation in Standard. It makes sense, given that Standard has the most impact on WotC, while serving as perhaps the best form of advertising when healthy. While depressing the value of singles makes for a player-friendly format, it only benefits dealers if it generates new or lapsed former players for the market. Even if we see an increase in new players, I’m not sure it will be immediate, nor do I think we can expect the kinds of huge gains that were happening over the last several years. It’s unlikely that another set will sell out the way RTR did, even with the added incentive of potentially opening a sweet StarGate Crucible of Worlds.
It kinda looks like a StarGate.
Enough people have talked about the short term effects (cheap Standard) by this point, so let’s go ahead and sim forward a few years.
5 YEARS OF MASTERPIECES: My guess here is that outside of a very few cards (design or development flaws, a laCollected Company), we are not going to see many new cards hold much value after rotating out of Standard. Masterpieces will slowly be “normalized” in the sense that focus will trend more towards a few inclusions rather than the appeal of opening one at all. I expect player growth to be plateauing by this point.
10 YEARS OF MASTERPIECES: At this point, it’s likely that the Masterpiece Series is suspended OR has evolved over time in ways that are difficult to predict. The Kaladesh Series only includes 5 cards from the set itself (the marquee “titans” of the block), but I suspect that that ratio of new cards to old cards may shift as the viable reprints winnow. WotC is likely going to have to swing harder as the years go on, just because pricing will likely become normalized. Preorders for Zendikar Expeditions were wild because it was new territory, in 2026 it’s likely that the financial algorithm is largely solved. Call me crazy, but it’s possible that Hasbro and WotC slowly start to peel back Reserve List restrictions and that in a theoretical distant future there are Masterpiece Underground Seas. This is assuming that player numbers REALLY suffer to a point where the game has contracted significantly.
We’ll see how all of that shakes out down the line, and I do think it will be worth examining the success of the series this time next year. For now, let’s talk about what we know of Kaladesh Inventions and what it tells us about Masterpiece philosophy:
This is an ‘Artifacts Only’ set.
There are 24 inclusions in Aether Revolt, 2 of which are Swords, and likely 5 of a new cycle.
WotC is not afraid to include constructed staples (Aether Vial) or otherwise unsupported mechanics (Metalcraft).
Flavor is a meaningful factor.
So we can expect very straightforward themes, at least in the short term, hinging on things that are both easy to boil down while staying in theme with the world. Kaladesh is an artifact-centric plane, so the Masterpieces are literally exhibits at the county fair or whatever. Some of the cards were re-flavored better than others (isn’t Brighthearth a place?), but mostly everything fits in well with “artifact only subset” and “Kaladesh County Fair Exhibit”. There can and will be split cycles, even though WotC probably messed up by putting two of the worst swords together by themselves in the second set.
I’m not saying that this is the worst sword, but it’s not the best.
Just as Oath had some REALLY spicy Expedition lands compared to BFZs straightforward cycles, I expect to see some more aggressive printings there as a means of bolstering a smaller set. Aether Vial is an interesting choice because it is almost exclusively played in formats where it is at a 4x. Just as utility spells (like Char) were singled out as “mostly going to stay at rare” when mythics were announced, it is interesting to see that not all Masterpieces will just be EDH upgrades. This creates a situation where some Masterpieces are wanted in multiples, compared to things like Mind’s Eye, which will be wanted as individual copies. Expect much higher prices here as people compete to complete sets. Flavor and commitment to theme kept out things like Phyrexian Metamorph and Arcbound Ravager, but Metalcraft was not an issue. This means that as long as the textbox is the only restriction, it’s likely that cards that otherwise wouldn’t make the cut are able to fudge their way in.
I’m not sure its worth speculating on what may be in Aether Revolt (other than the two swords and some number of currently nonexistent cards), but is it fair to say that I expect it to be the “better” of the two?
Also, I don’t think it is going to be wise to try and bet on what will and what won’t be included in a set. My advice is to just avoid any big risks until this problem is solved. Ironically, this means gravitating MORE towards Reserve List staples and smaller newer stuff with a higher sale velocity.
Let me know what you think about these, and your thoughts on the Masterpieces in general. We’ll talk about the REAL Kaladesh set starting next week, including this card which seems to have a rejected Paramore album cover as the artwork.
That’s what you get when you let your heart win.
Best,
Ross
PS- I’ve been on a big MST3K binge literally since the announcement of Servo tokens, and Club-MST3K.com has every episode for free with no commercials. This is my way of circulating the tapes in 2016.
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MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY
