Category Archives: Casual Fridays

Casual Fridays, Uncategorized

Are We Buying The Fallout X Magic Secret Lair: Rad Superdrop?

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It’s been forever since the last time we got a Secret Lair! We were supposed to get Monster Hunter on December 1st, but Wizards pulled that after the litany of errors and the cacophony of unhappy hunters. That means it’s been more than two months! We’re definitely never getting a gap like that again in 2026. Heck, we’re getting a real set every two months!

This is the second Fallout Secret Lair drop and it’s timed to come out a little after Fallout’s second season has aired, so we’re getting some new cards, some awesome reprints, and a little something for everyone.

For each card, I’ll give you the number of special printings, and the current retail for each. In addition, I’ll give you the EDHREC number, because that’s a great indication of the popularity of the card, even if EDHREC is skewed towards precons and the most invested players, it’s still data worth knowing. Also, all the Lairs are $30 for the nonfoils and $40 for the foils, unless otherwise noted.

Lucy, The Ghoul, and Maximus are new to Magic and have no stats to speak of.

Pre-War Formalwear (FEA $8, 18k decks)

Spirit Mantle (M12 foil $15, 68k decks)

T-45 Power Armor (FEA $2, 13k decks)

First off, this Lair is $40 for nonfoils and $50 for the foils. That’s important context when the cards themselves are kind of mid. Mantle is a popular choice in decks where a Commander needs to get through and deal damage to a player, but it’s not expensive. The three new cards are interesting, and I think The Ghoul is the most powerful, by far, but I also think there are going to be some crazy Energy combos with Maximus and Lucy is just a value engine, since tokens are made all the damn time in Commander. 

Considering that this is the headliner, I’m expecting supply to be high on this one but as we’ll get to, I think FOMO will make this sell out eventually and it’ll turn a profit. I don’t think the cards are good enough on their own, just so I’m clear, but I’m preparing for the psychological aspect and the bot networks to make it sell out.

Yoshimaru, Ever Faithful (EA $12, Magicfest $30, SLD 2021 $80, 15k as partner and 30k as card)

Arcane Signet (tons, all the decks)

Sol Ring (tons, all the decks)

Lightning Greaves (50 printings, most borderless are $5-$10, 2 million decks)

Patchwork Banner (pack foil $8, 307k decks)

No, seriously, Signet has 80 printings and Sol Ring has 122. 

Yoshi is popular in Jodah as a legend that’s only one mana, Signet and Sol Ring can’t really go wrong, Greaves is everywhere, and this is the first special printing for the Banner. Most importantly, though, this is a Lair focusing on adorable dogs, and we’ve proven, over and over again, that it’s a recipe for success. 

I’m going to buy every copy I can of this, and I encourage you to do the same. I fully expect this to be the first Lair to sell out, just because plenty of folks will buy the bundle and then add a couple of these to the cart. This is pure profit, easy money, Eddie/Kieran Yanner level of demand, thanks to the combo of staples and good boys.

Ripples of Potential (EA $7, 105k decks)

Mutational Advantage (FEA $10, 60k decks)

The Wise Mothman (Surge Showcase $200, Foil Showcase $20, 28k decks as commander, #11 in last two years)

Mindcrank (NPH pack foil $40, SLD foil $21, 121k decks)

Mesmeric Orb (Retro foil $30, 109k decks)

Wizards likes to do this sort of thing, where there’s one commander, and several of the accessories. This time, they picked one of the most popular commanders of the last couple years, and added several favorite cards. Does it matter that Mindcrank just got a badass version in Iron Maiden? Not at all! This is a fantastic Lair and I plan to max out here as well. Rad counters are just too good a theme and too fun an experience for me to pass up these cards. 

Tinybones, Trinket Thief (SLD foil $35, 4k as commander, 19k as card)

Isshin, Two Heavens as One (FCA foil $55, 25k decks as commander, 69k as card)

The Deck of Many Things (Ampersand foil $25, 28k decks)

Caged Sun (Surge foil $8, Retro foil $5, 137k decks)

Nuka-Cola Vending Machine (Borderless foil $40, Surge foil $80, 89k decks)

The big draws here are Tinybones and the Nuka-Cola Machine. The Machine is a terrifying card in any Food-based deck, and thank goodness the Treasure comes in tapped. We’re a few months away from The Hobbit, and where there’s Hobbits, there’s Food synergies. I fully expect this to get to a floor in Dump Week and take off from there. Isshin just got a sweet Lightning version in the Final Fantasy bonus sheet, so that should recover nicely unless they go for a third printing in the next few months. 

I’m in for this Lair, but mainly for the big two. 

We don’t know what the bundle prices will be (my expectations are that it’ll be a very meager savings) but I don’t mind spending the money, because we’ll get a Silver Shroud Costume promo for every $149 we spend. This is $45 for the surge foil, but a regular frame, and even $12 for the regular nonfoil, and it’s in 67k decks. You’ll get at least $20 for selling that, and every bit helps bring down the price. 

My personal plan is to max out on bundles, and add extras of everything but Vault 33. I don’t know what the max amounts will be, but I’m expecting it’ll be limited to two of each item/bundle again. I’m going after foils and nonfoils equally here.

Finally, please notice that Wizards is telling you to get in the queue and be ready Monday morning. You can load a cart starting an hour early, and when 9 am (12 noon EST) hits, you’ll be randomized for your place in line. So get logged in, get your carts ready, and keep your fingers crossed!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Casual Fridays

The Mana Math of Lorwyn Eclipsed

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With seven sets coming in 2026, there’s going to be a lot of times I say these words: It’s time to do some math! 

That’s right, Lorwyn Eclipsed is about to be released, and we need to do some arithmetic in order to figure out how likely it is that Collector Boosters will contain what we want.

So strap on a calculator, kids, and let’s get into it!

In running these numbers, I’m just using Wizards’ released information about the makeup of Collector Booster packs. The focus is on those CBs, because that’s where the best stuff will be. There’s a tiny chance of these showing up in Play Boosters, but generally, don’t waste your time with those if you like to crack packs. 

First off, let’s talk about nonfoil cards. 

It’s not every set where Wizards puts two nonfoils in the CBs this way, but when they do, it leads to a LOT of nonfoils entering the market. Especially the rares of each type, you’re at just over 83% of these slots having rares. Definitely could lead to some bricks being bought down the line, depending on the cards. 

Even with the double-up on the slot, you’re still looking at ten boxes of CBs to get that one fetchland in particular. Pretty tough pull, as nonfoils go.I’d look for these to be a little bit pricier than expected.

The foil slot, as always, has the best stuff:

The official MSRP of a CB pack is $27, so that’s what I’m using for my estimates.

In case you missed the bit in the article about collecting this set, we’re done getting Japanese-language Fracture Foils in English-language CBs. Those will only be found in the Japanese-language CBs. This is phrased as a permanent change, but we’ll see if that holds. 

As for the cards in this slot, we’re not seeing anything too wildly rare. Everything can be had in under 200 packs, which is pretty good for this sort of thing. If you’re expecting the mega-rares of the recent Universes Beyond sets, well, this won’t be as difficult.

With the shift in Fracture Foils, now we’ve got an interesting case. We know precisely what the ratio is of regular foil to Fracture Foil, it’s 9:1 and that means the expectation is that if a Fracture Foil costs $100, then the regular foil should be $11. To put another way, according to the math, nine regular foils should add up to the price of one Fracture Foil. 

The problem here is that we don’t know what the demand will look like, and if the Fracture Foil collectors was to go ham, they will, and throw the ratio all out of whack. As an example, let’s look at the Japan Showcase of Bloodthirsty Conqueror. The regular foil is right at $100, and the Fracture Foil is just about three times that much. (both of those are in English, for the record.)

Blessed few of the Fracture Foils currently have a ratio near 9:1, but that’s with the JPN versions getting opened. We’ll have to keep an eye on where the prices end up. 

The Special Guests part of this is about in line with other sets too. Specific cards are usually between 150-200 packs, and that’s what we’ve got here. There will be some excellent targets among the foils, I think, but the truly interesting case will be the nonfoils. Those are only found in the Play Boosters, and you’re 1 in 55 to get a SPG card. Since there’s 20 options, that means it’ll take 1,100 Play Boosters to get one particular nonfoil. 

Using Wizards’ MSRP, we can see that the cost in Play Boosters will be just over six grand, and that’s roughly $900 more than it’ll cost to open a foil version. It’s rare enough for the foils and nonfoils to be close in price, much less have the nonfoil as costing more. I’ll be watching to see if there’s deals to be had early, but this is another case where collectors might end up pushing the price to illogical levels.

The final point that jumps out at me is that 62.8% of the CBs opened will have a Rare FEA, a Foil Rare Fable Frame, or a Foil Rare Borderless card. They have a vested interest in keeping mythics at a lower drop rate, but if you add in the 10% of SPGs, now you’re talking about only 1 in 4 Collector Boosters having a foil mythic, and that’s a bit of a change from previous sets. It remains to be seen if that’ll damage the finances of those mythics, but really, it’ll be all about Commander demand. 

Last but not least, let’s talk about the Double Rainbow Foil Serialized Bitterblossom Bearer. I’ve made a table to show some of the likely drop rates, and how they contribute revenue for Wizards.

($250 is our estimated distributor buy price, or what Wizards makes when they sell the boxes to a distributor)

For a little context, Lord of the Rings Holiday edition was at 1.5 million packs, and the main summer set was 3.3 million. We’re estimating this is closer to Edge of Eternities’ print run, which was probably in the realm of 2 to 2.5 million packs. So I’m giving the estimate of about 1 in 5,000 Collector Boosters to snag a serialized card.

I want to repeat, this is an estimate. If you get me some solid data on how many Collector Boosters Wizards makes for a set, I’d love to have that piece of information.

I hope these charts are helpful as you decide what to buy and what to open. If you have questions or concerns, I’m happy to talk about the specifics on social media or in the ProTrader Discord. Good luck with your packs!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Casual Fridays, Uncategorized

What I Speculated On In 2025 & Why I Did It

I don’t buy a lot of singles during most years, and 2025 was no exception. Today, I want to go over the singles I did buy for spec purposes, the price I got in at, my thought process, and what they’ve done so far. 

If you’d like a comprehensive review of all my picks from MTG Fast Finance, tune in for that podcast episode, coming after the first of the year. This list of purchases is just me, though I know I’ve mentioned these cards in articles, or Discord posts, or in other areas. Generally speaking, I don’t like to do a lot of buying of the things I suggest as specs, because in a lot of cases, it’s going to directly result in me selling my early buys to people who listen to my advice, and the self-dealing would be rampant. 

So let’s go over the singles I thought were worth the investment. 

I do want to note that I’m only focusing on singles here. I’m skipping where the majority of my money went this year: sealed product via MTGPrice Group Buys and Secret Lairs on release day. If you’re a ProTrader, you get access to some fantastic group buy pricing, and I’d strongly suggest you sign up. I’ve also been able to do well with getting SL drops early and reselling them for good profits, but those aren’t what I want to focus on today. 

So here’s my picks, in order. I’ve included the tax I paid (10%, ouch) and the shipping in my per-card cost.

February 2: 29x Foil Borderless Rooftop Storm, $3.50 each

This was allllllll the way back at the start of the year, when the Innistrad Remastered set came out and we also got a fresh batch of Zombie goodness, mostly focused on Hashaton. Rooftop Storm is one of the most busted Kindred cards around, and this was available at a surprisingly low price. That price went up while Zombies were getting all the attention, but even though INR had a sort of truncated print run, there’s still a whole lot of copies out there and the price has trailed downwards, with NM foils being at about the same price as when I bought in.

February 11: 3x Borderless Foil Jeweled Lotus, $80 each

Not long after the Wizards takeover of the Commander format, there was a stream with one of the designers and they said they’d be revisiting the Banned List. This triggered a frenzy of buying, and I wasn’t immune. I actually managed to resell one of the four I bought for $160, but I haven’t factored that into the costs/card. The graph tells a lovely story:

I’m still a believer in the card getting unbanned eventually, because it’s got such powerful applications in a format that wants access to those sorts of cards. If there’s ever an official split between ‘regular’ EDH and cEDH, this would be one of the main benefactors. The price is about $20 higher than my buy-in, but when it’s unbanned, this could easily hit $200. Biggest question would be if the card gets a reprint around the time of the announcement. You can make the case that Dockside has Cube and Legacy/Vintage applications (plus sweet Avatar association) but reprinting Jeweled Lotus would be a declaration that it’s coming back.

I also want to note that there’s no Commander-themed set currently on the agenda for 2026. If there was a Commander Legends 3 coming up, that would be a different case entirely.

April 15: 2x Marsh Flats, 2x Scalding Tarn, all Dragonscale Foil Borderless, $250 each

Now I do want to note that I got these as trade-ins at a local event, so I didn’t lay down a grand in cash for them. I did give up a lot to get them, and I could have put those trades towards any number of other things, and goodness do I wish I had. (I also sent in a lot of trade-ins for a set of Dragonscale lands for my Dragon deck, argh!) I justified these purchases by thinking that a) Dragons are eternally popular, b) they will complete the set, and when they do, the first batch will get pricey and c) it took 500 Collector Boosters to get one specific Dragonscale fetchland. Sadly, none of this has panned out yet. Tarns are down more than $50 from my price, and Marsh Flats can be had for nearly $100 less. This might be one of my worst specs (and MTG Fast Finance picks) ever. It also didn’t help that right after Tarkir:Dragonstorm we went into Final Fantasy hype, and that sucked up ALL the money.

April 25: Rainbow Foil Blasphemous Act (Deadpool) x22, $5.50 each

A Dump Week special, this was the perfect call at the perfect time, but there’s an anvil coming in to smash it like it’s a cartoon coyote. Blasphemous Act is a great card, gets a lot of precon printings and at the time, only the second special frame version of the card. The price stayed consistent in this range until October, when the Spider-Man SL added a newspaper version and right after that, the Avatar bonus sheet added another. Currently this can be had for about $4 shipped, but with the glut available, I’m just going to have to be very very patient. Or hope that the Deadpool version takes off with the new Marvel cards this summer.

July 23: LP Foil Turntimber Ranger x23, $1.50 each

When the promo Katara was previewed, and we saw that Allies were back on the menu, I didn’t follow the hype of the obvious stuff like Sea Gate Loremaster, I went for two vendors who had big stacks of this LP foil and figured all the rare Zendikar Allies would see a bump. I was sort of right, as LP foils are up to $4 with shipping, but I’m selling them woefully slowly and I would love to buylist these out at $3, but I’d settle for $2 and move on.

August 5: Rainbow Foil JPN Heroic Intervention (Aerith’s Curaga Magic) x14, $8 each

This is a case where it looks like I should be despondent, but really, the plan is working. This was a Dump Week call, and live on cast James and I were talking about the FIN SLs in Dump Week, Heroic came up as a $20 foil but the JPN copies were less than half that. So I bought more than a few and brought them to eBay, where non-English sells much easier than on TCGPlayer, and I’m moving copies comfortably at $16 with free shipping, making a tidy profit every couple weeks. Considering the mega-whammy that Heroic has gotten recently, with SPM and TLA bonus sheet copies arriving, and the news that there will be three more with Marvel Super Heroes this summer, getting in cheap with iconic characters/art and going to the other site to sell is working out nicely.

August 8: Double Rainbow Foil Tendershoot Dryad x8, $12 each

Another Dump Week spec, with this being a super sweet version of a card in a ton of Commander decks and only gettable if you bought the sealed SL deck for $200. I thought the timing was right, but it turned out to be early, as Black Friday this was bought up for under $10 and now it’s at $11. I don’t feel bad, this will get there, it’s too pretty and too rare not to.

September 28: Foil Corruption of Towashi x106, $0.14 each

This is a play I made to clean out one vendor of a foil uncommon that could jump to $1 or $2 with the sheer number of transforming creatures getting made, but especially the Lorwyn Eclipsed cards that are flipping back and forth. This might not work out, but I spent just under $15 total, so it’s a fun little gamble.

December 4: The Stars Gaze Back nonfoil SL x2, $40 each and Rainbow Foil Flamekin Harbinger x6, $8 each

Pretty straightforward here: This was a convention SLD, so there’s not a lot, and we’re about to get a 5-color Elemental Commander deck. I’m debating on reselling the Harbingers now, as there’s only 10 foil copies available under $20 on TCG, but with the holiday I tend to turn off my inventory while I visit family, so logistics are going to have me wait a couple weeks before I move what I’ve got.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Casual Fridays

Secret Lair Silliness, for both Sealed and Singles

Secret Lairs have been one of the most profitable parts of Magic finance this year. The combination of certain reprints and unique cards, plus the system for giving them out, has been ripe for big markups and fast gains. 

However, not everything Secret Lair has been equally profitable, and there are also examples where the psychology (or foolishness) really come into play. For more than a few Lairs, it’s not about the cards, but the item itself, the collectability. So let’s get into some examples, and see where we can gain some insights for future drops.

I’ve written before about what we want from a Secret Lair, but there have proven to be some additional layers. The biggest one, and the one that we can’t effectively plan for, is the quantity printed/does the Lair sell out. There’s some folks who can extract a number from the Secret Lair site and figure out when the Low Stock notice goes up, but that’s not always reliable info and even knowing the number doesn’t guarantee that a lower number sells out. 

The recent Playstation drop has some great examples of the two ways a Lair can go. Of the seven drops, three of them have sold out. Two sold out the first morning, and Horizon took a couple weeks to drain out completely. The ones that sold out, Horizon, Ghost of Tsushima and God of War: Greek, all have impressive jumps in the sealed prices and for the singles, but a lot of the attention on the singles has gone to the mechanically unique cards. The other four drops, though, are languishing on the site, and will likely be available for some time to come. 

Interestingly, during Dump Week for this drop, you could get some deals. The cheapest copy of God of War: Norse, which didn’t sell out and is still on the site for $50, sold a lot of copies for under $45 and some even just above $40. Now there could have been high shipping costs added on, that’s a game people like to play, but it also reflects that folks likely bought bundles and were dumping the ones that had the lowest prices. 

For these more recent Lairs, the singles are keeping up with the sealed prices, but there’s more than a few Lairs where the prices just do not add up, and you should always take a beat and check on that when you want a whole Lair. Case in point is Stranger Things, which thanks to Netflix is having a bump in the number of Lairs sold, but let’s look at what is going on. The individual foil cards add up to $85, and that includes a $10 foil Clue token. The sealed package is going for $150 right now, and there’s no mystery bonus card goosing the value of sealed Lairs too. 

My guess is that it’s collectors at work, people who want to have the entire set and don’t care about paying extra. It’s anyone’s guess if the sealed set will be opened, but as long as folks are buying, does it matter? I sold my last sealed for $120 last month, and with the series finale coming on New Year’s Eve, I’d recommend selling any lingering copies before then. Interest is back up, but this is it. The kids originally put on the cards are now college students!

Mainly, though, we want to pay attention to the Lairs that sell out. That leads to instant profits, and in this era where Heroic Intervention is going to get four printings in a year (Final Fantasy SLD, Spider-Man Bonus, Avatar Bonus, and Marvel Super Heroes x3!) I’m less and less interested in holding special printings for a long time. There’s too much churn, and money to be made, in fast flips, but again, only if you’re accurately picking Secret Lairs. If you buy everything then you’re going to have a lot of product that takes a long time to sell.

One thing that I’m not seeing when it comes to sealed vs. singles is bonus cards making a big difference. The Final Fantasy Lairs have wonderful bonuses in the pitch Elementals, and those Lairs aren’t super juiced. Same thing for Sonic, Spongebob, and others. Heck, even the original serialized, the reverse Viscera Seer, isn’t enough to keep the price of the Phyrexian Praetors drop high. 

Another non-factor (and likely a future article) is language. We’ve seen this trend over time, where the Japan Showcase cards in foil and fracture foil command much lower prices than the English versions, but non-English versions of cards are almost all worth less in the modern day, or at least for modern cards. Lairs with two languages, such as Final Fantasy or Hatsune Miku, demonstrate a big gap in what people will pay for the same art but a different language. Final Fantasy Game Over, as an example, has ENG foil sealed at $90 and sealed JPN for $40 on TCGPlayer. That doesn’t include the problem James and I have talked about, where for singles in Japanese you have to choose that filter. These are different listings, and similar prices can be found on eBay as well. 

Final Fantasy Lairs have access to the five elementals in both languages, and even those bonus drops have a big price gap too. Bonuses are a nice thing to have, but clearly, people aren’t interested in digging for lottery tickets.

So to wrap it up: Pay attention to the gap between single and sealed Lairs, resell the ones that sold out as fast as you can, and don’t expect bonuses to carry the weight for you. 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.