Tag Archives: MTGFinance

MTGFinance in the Era of Reprints

There is little question that Magic: The Gathering players, speculators and vendors are facing a new era in the game we love. Print runs, release schedules and reprint cadence are all up and competitive tournament support, sealed product prospects and Hasbro staff rosters are down. A community once dominated by Standard, Modern and Legacy players has now morphed into an EDH driven market surrounded by a double handful of smaller formats. Crypto hype echoes across the collectibles markets, exacerbating the boom and bust cycles.

Gone are the days when a Magic player could reliably sit on almost any sized collection of singles or sealed products and reasonably expect that the value of that cardboard treasure hoard would simply go up and to the right.

Instead we are forced to confront the simple fact that now, perhaps more than ever, the people that make the game we love are under significant pressure to make more and sell more, without much regard for the longer term consequences. In many ways we can lay this at the feet of late stage capitalism, as the obsession over revenue and profit growth leads to bonus chasing executives making decisions that help short term graphs without considering player growth, player commitment, or the health of the game.

And yet, if we intend to make and save money playing this game that we love, we must still find a way to navigate through. So what do we do?

Singles Aren’t Dead, But They’re Injured

There isn’t any way around it. Magic singles speculation is just more risky than it used to be, even when you do everything right. Sure, I’m having my best year ever for singles sales, but that doesn’t mean it’s easy or automatic.

WoTC is simply putting out more products, more often, and with a greater focus on premium sets and direct to consumer sales via the Secret Lair product line. This results in dozens of more reprints on key staples throughout the year. What’s more, even a recent reprint doesn’t necessarily guarantee that your spec will be left alone, as we’ve seen multiple examples of cards getting double tapped within the same calendar year.

As such, any given basket of intelligently selected staples can be expected, on average, to produce a lower margin than it did five or ten years ago. Does that mean that Magic singles are simply untenable for speculation purposes? Well, no, despite the talking heads that are making money generating content that will tell you otherwise .

The reality is that from any reasonable perspective Magic is in the strongest position it’s ever been. The shift to Secret Lair products cuts out most of the middle men, boosting profits. Overall revenues and profits are at all time highs, and the Lord of the Rings set was likely the best selling Magic product of all time, generating massive amounts of free press coverage as players rushed to find the precious. Partnerships with major entertainment brands via the Universes Beyond might dilute the narrative of the game, but it also expands the reach of the brand and pulls in fresh interest that otherwise seemed hard to reach. EDH is the king of formats, encouraging players to build massive collections and featuring a natural rotation of archetypes and a self-regulating power level.

And take it from someone that sifts through the data each and every week to see what’s gaining ground: there are simply hundreds if not thousands of relevant price increases on Magic singles every year even in the midst of the era of reprints. (And naturally, there are just as many cards that lose ground.)

There are new cards still in print that take off due to meta shifts. There are niche cards that get activated by the hot new commander of the month, providing a strong selling window that collapses a few months later. There are premium versions of cards that have plenty of printings that can shake off reprints as the best chase version available and accelerate when put under the spotlight. Smuggler’s Copter gets unbanned and turns into a rocket ship. Many Planeswalkers have simply never received a reprint at all, and with the recent narrative shift away from them in general, this trend is unlikely to reverse. Sol Ring gets infinite reprints, but the players still float the Masterpiece Invention version over $650.



There are also still plenty of cards that go 2-5+ years without a reprint, and another group that are simply unlikely to ever get a reprint for one reason or another. The simple fact is that as the card pool gets larger and larger, even the new reprint cadence cannot keep pace with the entire pool of staples and niche cards that are needed by players across multiple popular formats.

On the other hand, your bread and butter EDH staples are very likely to be kept in print in one form or another more or less constantly. Cards like Smothering Tithe, Rhystic Study and Doubling Season have to be assumed to be within a year of another reprint at any time and that absolutely impacts how you should approach their presence in your inventory.

Another major source of risk is power creep leading to prior staples falling out of a key meta like Modern. With a Modern Horizons set being delivered every two years at this point, and a generally high power level expected next summer in MH3, there’s a good chance that a card that seems like a good spec today will end up forgotten by next fall.

And yet, there are FAR more Magic cards worth more than $10, $20, $50 or $100 now than there have ever been, in large part due to the increase in premium treatments and lottery cards at distinctly low print runs. EV continues to drain from regular printings to premiums, resulting in solid access to key staples at lower prices that no player should complain about. The singles market is far from crashing, but it’s a different beast for sure.

All of this adds up to a need to stay on top of things if you want to succeed.

Focus on Scarcity

The collectibles market has long pivoted on scarcity. To wit, the entire industry rides the tension between supply and demand, always trying to maximize profit by producing as much as possible without crashing the market and eliminating the demand. From comics, to beanie babies, retro video games, and 80s action figures to the dozen or more prevalent cards games that survive alongside Magic, Pokemon and Yugioh, there’s always a scarcity driven market to collect and profit in, and always a risk that it will all go sideways.

As such, it behooves us to pay close attention to what parts of the Magic product line are more scarce than others. Time Spiral Remastered, ONE Compleat Bundles, and 40k Premium decks all spring to mind as examples of sealed product that caught some folks flat footed and made others healthy returns on the flip.

You also have to watch for products where demand is so high it makes even high print run items seem scarce. The Lord of the Rings Collector Boosters were strongly profitable before the 1/1 ring was found, when sourced intelligently. Some of the forthcoming Marvel x Magic releases over the next few years may well behave in similar fashion.

On the other hand, there is little evidence that buying most Draft, Set or Collector Booster boxes for a long term hold is a good idea as very few are holding a price tag above their original retail lows. The shift to even more expensive Play Boosters in 2024 is unlikely to improve this scenario. And while I have heard rumors that CB releases are going to be more limited, I’ll believe it when I see it.  


Focus on Strong Art

One of the hallmarks of the Booster Fun era has been a strong commitment by WoTC to lean into alternative art treatments and work with world class artists capable of generating significant demand.

Some of the best examples of strong art leading to profit can be found in a carefully curated selection of Secret Lair releases. What do all of the below releases have in common? They far surpassed financial expectations because people simply loved the art and/or theme of the release. Plenty of Secret Lair releases do not achieve profitability in a reasonable time frame, but enough of them do that leveraging the frequent 18-30% discounts for mass ordering can often be a solid move.



Alternate art cards have also been some of the few things in the game to avoid specific reprint risk….so far. An Artist Masters set in 2027 wouldn’t surprise me at all, but until then, fantastic alt art cards are going to be one of the best bets for gains.

Overseas arbitrage

At present the JPN Yen is near historic lows against the US dollar, resulting in some fantastic opportunities to pick up relevant singles on the cheap. Many Japanese stores stock both English and Japanese copies of recent singles, so even if you aren’t comfortable selling Japanese cards on Ebay (a tactic I leverage regularly for strong profits), you can still stock your stacks. Shipping from Japan was very tricky due to COVID restrictions a couple of years back, but is now back to their typical quick and cost effective export options. While the largest stores will ship direct overseas, many of the best buys are found at smaller stores that only ship locally, so a domestic shipping address is very handy.

In terms of buying singles in Europe (eg on CardMarket.com), your best exchange rates were in the fall of 2022 when the USD briefly overtook the Euro, but there are still some strong buys to be made at current rates when focusing on undervalued EDH staples on both continents.

In both cases, making a friend overseas to bounce ship your purchases is your best bet, though reshipping companies can also be used at lower margin.

Selective Buylist to Retail

If you don’t care to mess around with overseas shipping, you still have some solid opportunities to get cards cheap enough to add to inventory on home soil.

And though I don’t really expect the local LGS network to just disappear overnight as some naysayers seem to believe, there may well be a reduction in buylist strength both from major players and local shops as they struggle to adapt their business models to the shifting reality of vending this game. If those gaps appear, it may well be worth filling them by making public offers on Twitter, Facebook and Discord to scoop up cards.

A well run buylist doesn’t care if a card is $20 or $40, as long as it can be acquired at 50-65% of that price and sold again long before the next reprint cycle. TCGPlayer vendors have direct access to a common buylist on that platform, which can be an excellent option once you are in the trenches. But remember: in the era of reprints you want most of your inventory to be high velocity, because you never know when the next version will appear.

MTGO Against All Odds

Years after I thought it would be shuttered MTGO is still chugging along in the hands of a 3rd party, and the quick fire shifts in the online meta for Standard, Pioneer, Modern and Legacy on that platform are still leading to wild gains (and losses) for speculators that stay on top of things. The MTGPrice Pro Trader Discord maintains a channel specifically to address this market, but playing your format of choice on MTGO is also a fun and effective way to keep in the loop.

Inventory Maintenance

With reprints at a higher frequency, sitting on deck stock is more foolish than ever. Holding a stack of previously $10 first printing cards that dropped to $1.75 on three printings in three years? Get out now and repurpose the pennies into something more productive, because that rebound may never come.

Cracked a box of collector boosters and pulled a sweet serialized card on a week one? Sell it now at the market high, and if you really want it for a deck take another look in 6 months once the hype cycle has moved on.

Snapped off some 1st edition Lorcana in a sweet Pro Trader group buy? Sell into the hype before the market catches up and blows you out.

You’ve got to be nimble if you want to survive.

The Vendor Perspective

Many of the loudest voices heralding the death of the Magic economy are vendors and given their position at the center of that market, their voices are certainly worth paying attention to. No one who lives and breathes MTGFinance every day would disagree that WoTC, their vendors and the player base could all benefit from a better defined reprint policy that creates more space between key reprints.

That said, it is important to recognize that a lot of their comments are issued from a position of exposure from within an aging business model that no longer makes sense.

For years many major TCG shops prided themselves on keeping binders of every set published in stock at any given time. They bought at low buylist rates from folks that came to unload their decks or collections, and restocked the binders with the cards they took in. Very little was done in your average shop to measure sales velocity, time on shelf or card popularity trends as most singles weren’t even tracked individually at point of purchase. They knew next to nothing about the purchasing habits of their clientele and their in store merchandising was nothing more complex than placing products up on the shelf behind the counter and hoping they sold through in a reasonable time frame. Many failed to sell online or did so sporadically with weak marketing campaigns.

In short, they were running an inherently inefficient business that only got worse once sitting on a broad swath of buylisted singles for longer time periods got more dangerous. Slowly but surely, buying a $50 card at $30 started to look risky if the reprint would end up under $20. And once COVID lockdowns hit, many of the smaller stores with weak financials simply ended up in bankruptcy.

And yet, some smart and better financed operators have found success shifting into a “gamer’s tavern” model, taking on liquor and food licensing and higher overhead to operate very successful businesses with multiple revenue streams. CK owned Mox Boarding House, Storm Crow Manor and Snakes and Lattes all survived COVID and are thriving in various parts of key North American markets. FacetoFaceGames in Toronto and Montreal has ditched the binders in favor of select singles in their showcases and sells ice cream out the window all summer. Smart business evolves.

The Skeptic’s Scythe

At MTGPrice we strive to provide a rational, well informed and action oriented approach to MTGFinance, aimed at helping players and part-time vendors to minimize their costs and maximize their gains.

We will continue to draw attention to the best opportunities in the Magic market and adjacent markets via articles on this site, the MTGFastFinance podcast and our excellent Pro Trader Discord community.

And while we do our best to provide the very best in financial content, we encourage you, now as ever, to apply the skeptic’s scythe to our recommendations and discussions. Ignore two thirds of what anyone tells you might work and focus on the top third of your opportunities and you’ll end up with less dead stock and more acceleration. Apply the same rule of thumb to all such content from other sources, and combined with the strategies above, you’ll have the best possible shot to make and save money playing our favorite game, Magic the Gathering as the era of reprints continues.

James Chillcott is the owner of MTGPrice, Co-Host of the MTGFastFinance Podcast, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy art fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

PREMIUM MAGIC THE GATHERING CARD ARBITRAGE AT MAGICCON MINNEAPOLIS

Hi everyone! Thank you for the tremendous support and positive feedback I received from my first article! I could not ask for a warmer welcome.

As some of you know, I recently returned from MagicCon Minneapolis, which is the second of four major MTG conventions this year that will culminate in the World Championships in Las Vegas, Sep 22-24, 2023. The three days in Minneapolis allowed for the meeting of friends both old and new, countless games played, and much exciting business to be conducted. For this article I want to focus on one aspect of my experience, specifically my observations on collecting and trading premium Magic cards in the current environment. 

A key focus for me lately has been the recent releases of the serialized cards in MOM, the “giveaway” Secret Lair cards (limited each to 295 copies), and the Secret Lair Prize Cards (exclusive to MagicCon events). Why do we care about these cards in particular? The short answer is that MTG as a collectible card game is evolving and for all of you engaged in the MTG Finance community, it is imperative to take note of the opportunities for short term arbitrage associated with time boxed or location specific limited releases. Allow me to illustrate my point here through several personal anecdotes from the floor of Magiccon Minneapolis. 

First, let’s begin with the serialized MOM cards. As a refresher, WOTC decided to serialize in editions of 500 each of the 65 Multiverse Legend cards from MOM and the 5 new Praetors. That’s a whooping 35,000 serialized cards injected into the MTG community. The community’s feedback I would argue has been mixed. While everyone loves to see Ragavan in a masterpiece frame, not everyone is so enthused by a serial number stuck to a card with the same art with average foiling. Furthermore, no one can really understand why a bunch of uncommons (Daxos? Yargle?) get serialized treatment. These are indeed somewhat baffling production choices. On the other hand the unique art exclusive to the serialized versions of the new Praetors are stunning ultra low print run collectibles and the market has responded accordingly.


I arrived in Minneapolis with 8 serialized cards, including 3 serialized new Praetors (Elesh Norn, Sheoldred, Jin-Gitaxias). I had snapped up these Praetors during the prerelease windows (each at $800 or less), theorizing the unique art would make them quite desirable. I consigned the 8 serialized cards through a vendor friend of mine who had a booth, and 6 cards sold including all the Praetors (Elesh Norn $2000, Sheoldred $1700, Jin-Gitaxias $1500). A few points here worth reporting: 1) the vendor noted that many buyers came up looking for serialized cards, and the Praetors were some of the most asked about cards at the show; 2) all the serialized cards sold within 5% of the asking price; and 3) there were few serialized cards on the floor until the last day and almost no Praetors (whatever was tabled, ended up sold). 

My takeaway here is that serialized cards with top-notch unique art deserve special attention. When these cards also happen to be playable, as is the case with the Praetors, the demand and price support are readily found in the market. Note that even without unique art, I had success selling my serialized Emry, Lutri, and Zada at a profit – simply because they are playable and as a “one of a kind” serialized card, they found a home in someone’s very blinged-out EDH deck. It’s clear that serialized cards will exist from here on out given the announcements for LOTR. Though it may be tempting to brush off serialized cards as some lame marketing gimmick ported over from the sports card world, we have enough data at this point to show that there is clear demand from buyers for these cards as a new tier of premium MTG collectible. The fact that EDH is the dominant format for MTG and is a singleton format only helps the cause for serialized cards, as players are indeed willing to spend to “bling out” a favorite deck. The obvious corollary is that there’s going to be downward pressure on the basic versions of serialized cards, as the value in new sets is now spread out and skewed in favor of super-rare chase cards. 

The second anecdote I’d like to share concerns probably one of the ugliest MTG cards in recent memory (my subjective opinion shared by many!).  I present to you the Secret Lair 295 Giant Growth:

This specimen is limited to 295 copies, which were given out randomly to MagicCon attendees (with a bias towards content creators and kids). This Giant Growth is the second Secret Lair 295 card given out, with the first being the Shivan Dragon (see above right), which was distributed at MagicCon Philly. The dust has settled on the Shivan Dragon, and we know that the current market price is around $2,000 based on extensive data points from Facebook sales. Giant Growth is virtually unplayable in every format. Given the troublesome art and the lack of playability, a couple vendors I know of took the brave step of paying $500 for the Giant Growth as the first copies hit the floor. I immediately went and bought 2 copies each at $600. One vendor professed that the card probably should be worth $200 as it’s so unappealing and was worried he’s taking a bath by even paying $500. My own logic however was that the card is a serialized release tied to a major MTG event. While this is no Shivan Dragon, there will surely be foreign buyers and other premium collectors that would pay $800? Even $1,000?  Within hours I had my answer. SCG said they were buying copies at $1,000 (which came down eventually to $500 during the weekend), and on Facebook, copies sold to collectors pretty briskly at $800-1,000 (as I’m writing this article, this is still the market price). I sold both my copies on the first day within hours of receiving them for $1,000 each, pocketing $400 profit per copy. Sweet!

Lessons learned? The principle of scarcity is relevant here in that the limited supply of this card, which was released within a very narrow window, created its own demand. Collectors and vendors did not want to miss out, and this pretty mediocre card still found its support in the market at a robust price. With these limited releases, especially with cards that are mediocre at best, it’s important to move quickly and take advantage of scarcity value. You need to know your outs (Facebook groups and Twitter), and be disciplined and informed with the right data (i.e., Shivan Dragon 295 is $2,000, so an out for Giant Growth at $1,000 is more than respectable). We can expect more of these 295 cards will appear in MagicCon Barcelona and Vegas. If offered the opportunity to buy a mysterious 295 card on site for $500, would you? The answer may well deserve to be yes, especially if the print runs and singles event releases stay consistent.

My last anecdote concerns a very special card shown here:

Ragavan needs no introduction, but this is the Secret Lair Prize version. This card exists in foil only with a total population of 128 copies to be distributed during the four MagicCon events this year. To date, 64 copies have been put into circulation, and it’s worthwhile to study the price behavior for this card. I attended MagicCon Philly and was an aggressive buyer of this card as soon as copies came into circulation. Vendors had originally buylisted the card at $1,000, then $1,250, and eventually close to $2,000. It became clear that there was extraordinary demand, as the art is highly unique and desirable to many for this truly iconic card. I was able to procure two copies of this card at $2,200 and $2,400, which I then sold shortly after Philly for $2,800 and $3,300. I flag this particular card because coincidentally in Philly, the Multiverse Legend version of Ragavan was announced including a serialized edition. Many thought that this Secret Lair Prize version was doomed for failure because the same card is being hit for reprint twice in succession and both in a premium treatment. 

The question is what happened in Minneapolis? Instead of seeing any price pressure, the Secret Lair Prize Ragavan saw a significant price increase. Vendors told me they had to pay $2,400 to $2,800 in buylist just to get a copy. Most copies procured also had ready buyers on the back end. Meanwhile, serialized Ragavans (not special numbers) have slipped to the $1,200 range even when many swore that the Masterpiece frame can’t be beat. It is clear that yet again, the art matters and for a staple card like Ragavan, the very limited number of 128 copies will carry the day. It does not matter that a Masterpiece frame exists, as that art treatment is printed into oblivion now and the serialized version of Ragavan is the same card. 

Recognizing this unique price trend, I suspect that this Ragavan may see yet another ratchet, especially in 6 to 12 months once all copies are given out. I opted to reinvest some of my gains from above into a personal copy.  

I hope the above stories from the floor provide you all with some interesting windows into how the MTG community is responding to the recent limited and special edition cards. I will look forward to reporting again soon when LOTR drops and we see some numbered rings enter the market and we get a glimpse of how the market forms on 1900 serialized Sol Rings and the mighty single copy of The One Ring. Until next time!

5 Premium Magic Cards Every Commander Player Should Own Under $20

Bolas’s Citadel Old Border Promo Foil – $5

Bolas’s Citadel is in 105k decks on EDHREC, and 12% of all black decks, marking it as a super staple of the format. As a WPN wide distribution promo this version of Bolas’s Citadel has plenty of copies lingering in the secondary market, which is doing a great job of keeping it’s price in check . The old border treatment is very interesting when paired with a colored casting cost artifact and the mystical art of the citadel looks good in the frame. Add in the classic foil WoTC swoosh and you’ve got a solid version of one of the most powerful black cards in the format. 

Double Masters 2×2 Borderless Foil Bounce Lands – $15/set of 10

Providing ramp in multi color EDH decks and the ability to trigger Landfall or abuse CIP effects on your lands, the gorgeous new borderless bounce lands from Double Masters 2022 are super cheap at $2 or less per foil copy and a great edition to any Commander collection with full sets running for just $15. 


MSCHF x Secret Lair Swords to Plowshares – $16

Despite Swords to Plowshares being the 3rd most popular EDH card of the last 2 years according to EDHREC, it hasn’t received that many premium versions that really draw the eye. The MSCHF x Secret Lair may push the definition of budget given a 5x multiplier vs. regular copies, but it is very unlikely to catch a reprint and should age well as copies steadily drain out of the resale market. If you’re playing white in Commander, you are playing this card, so you’ll never be without a place to rock this unique treatment as your deck collection grows.

Arcane Signet Dan Frazier x Secret Lair: $18

There have been plenty of Arcane Signets printed over the last few years, and there will be plenty more in years to come, but the Dan Frazier x Secret Lair version stands head and shoulders above the rest. During the inventory rush when this drop arrived in vendor hands months ago copies could be had for $10-14, but this retro art style by the artist who handled the P9 Moxen is still a solid deal at $18 for the regular version and even $30 for the foil etched. As the second most played card in the format this will be a coveted collectible for years to come.

Secret Lair Blasphemous Act Borderless: $15



The most played sweeper in Commander is easily Blasphemous Act with the card appearing in 30% of all red decks. By far the coolest version of this perennial red staple is the Secret Lair borderless version featuring a homage to horror exploitation films of the 1970s. With massive eye appeal and ultra low chance of reprint, this sexy sweeper wil draw comments at every table you wipe with it.

Interested in making and saving money while playing and collecting Magic the Gathering? Sign up now for MTGPrice Pro Trader to get all the best in MTGFinance articles, early MTGFastFinance Podcast access, price leading group buys and the best damn Magic community on the planet.

Exploring Modern Horizons Specs

Wow. Modern Horizons is a truly unprecedented set. There is a lot going on with this ground breaking new product from our friends at Wizards of the Coast. As players, collectors and speculators it is important for us to wrap our heads around the various aspects of this set before naming our target personal pickups and speculative entry points.

Let’s review some basics before we get to the priority targets, shall we? Here’s what you need to know about Modern Horizons:

– 254 cards + 1 Buy-A-Box Promo (Non-Foil Flusterstorm)
– 36 packs/box with Standard set style foil distribution
– Art cards in every pack
– Full-art snow basics in every pack
– Double-faced tokens in every pack, including foil versions in 1/4 packs

Whew! That’s a lot of product in a single box. Full-art snow basics, art cards and foil tokens will all be contributing a bit to the estimated value (EV) of boxes, as is sensible for a set with a wholesale cost more than double (~$160 or so vs. ~$70 for Standard legal sets).

The other big factor in play that is likely to drive long term box EV appreciation is that 209 of the cards in the set have never been printed before, including 14/15 Mythics and 48 of the Rares. That’s a lot of fresh blood!

Another factor to consider is that WoTC has fairly stuffed the product release schedule this year, resulting in Horizons ending up sandwiched within 6 weeks on either side of the blockbuster War of the Spark release and the Magic 2020 core set that will start previews in just four weeks! Coupled with high box/pack costs, there is a decent chance that even though Horizons is in theory a “print-to-demand” style print run, Wizards will actually provide relatively modest replenishment of stock to vendors through their distributors once the hype cycle has shifted to other products. Word from our network is that Hozions is being printed at about 75% of the print run of a Standard set release, so that matters as well. Remember also that shortly after M2020 we have the summer Commander 2020 deck releases, to be followed up in early fall by the main Standard set of the year, (whose name is still under wraps, presumably to lessen the looming feelings of product exhaustion).

This article is being written in the last couple of days of previews, but already the depth of this sets at all rarities is incredibly obvious. People may have been expecting a pile of new Snapcaster Mages and Lightning Bolts, but what they got instead is a highly complex, varied and subtle series of odd duck role players, many of which seem suspiciously like set ups for the reveal of additional puzzle pieces in forthcoming Standard or ancillary sets. Believe me, with tremendous depth at common and uncommon, this is going to be the kind of set that bulk handlers are going to be salivating over five years out.

So what does all of this add up to? Put simply, Modern Horizons is likely to lead to some very strong card spikes and set EV appreciation just as soon as it stops being widely available for purchase. Once the boxed product dries up, there will be no easy source of replenishment and any cards that shift into the spotlight for Modern or EDH are just going to take off hard, especially foils.

Let’s set some ground rules. As per usual, we’re looking at these cards in order of rarity, with an eye to the ones that are most likely to require players to buy the greatest # of copies across multiple formats, with a priority on Modern and Commander.

The Early Targets

#1 The Horizon Lands: The Ringers

The Horizon Lands, named after Horizon Canopy, are the most obvious Modern playable staples in Modern Horizons. In decks that are looking to win in the first few turns trading off a few life points for even better early mana fixing is no big deal. Tack on the ability to extend your reach by trading in excess lands for fresh cards and you have an instant classic. Keep in mind that Horizon Canopy is both one of the most expensive and most played lands in Modern, and though it loses a bit of juice from the appearance of it’s cousins, the pedigree for top level play is already well established.

If these lands had been printed into a Standard legal set, we would be looking for them to settle into the $6-12 range and then start a long slow climb over $20. Thing is, Modern Horizons is not your average set. These boxes cost vendors twice as much as a Standard set, and that translates to $6-7 packs at retail. That means that you can count on a 50-100% bump in the expected price range at each rarity, especially for the key cards that are wanted in multiples by players in multiple formats. Many serious Modern players are going to want complete play sets of this entire cycle for their quiver, and Commander players will find reasons to want them too. Modern decks like Burn, Death’s Shadow and Infect all need playsets. In EDH Lord Windgrace and The Gitrog Monster seek to recurse their lands as resources, so Nuturing Peatland is an auto include.

The thing is, everyone clued into the value of this land cycle pretty much right away so they are pre-selling near $20 in the EU and as high as $35 for Fiery Islet in North America.

The question here then, isn’t if you will buy these lands, but when. I’m inclined to think that $15 is a solid target during peak supply, aiming to exit over $30 within 18 months, and possibly sooner if supply dries up like I think it might. Foils on the other hand are likely to jump high, retrace a bit under pressure during peak supply this summer and then start a slow steady march toward $60-80 or higher. Remember, these are single source cards that were only ever printed in a premium set and are unlikely to see a reprint for five years or more. Gains are inevitable.

Current Price: $20-$35
Target Entry: $12-$18
Target Exit: $25-35 (18 months)

#2 Goblin Engineer & Giver of Runes: Strong 2nd Choices

Here we have a pair of utility creatures that players seem divided on. Frankly, I don’t get it. Both of these creatures cross-format super staples waiting to happen. Giver of Runes is the closest we’re going to get to Mother of Runes in Modern, a card that is a good enough white creature to see play in Legacy. Giver of Runes can’t target itself, but two copies CAN target each other, and the extra point of toughness isn’t irrelevant in a format with Gut Shot & Lava Dart. Mother of Runes is in the Top 20 white cards of all time in Commander and the decks that want it may easily find reason to want some redundancy. Giver is pre-ordering in the $5-8 range, but I think you’ll be able to snag $16-20 playsets during peak supply and that’s a strong buy signal IMHO.


Goblin Engineer is clearly the WoTC approved fixed version of Stoneforge Mystic, but the card is powerful enough that it will see play in Vintage, Legacy, Modern and Commander. We’re talking about a 1R creature that tutors up any artifact here. Yes, of course, it does go to your graveyard, but depending on your format of choice, everything from Goblin Welder, Trash for Treasure & Refurbish can make that work out for you. If the artifact is three mana or less the Engineer will be all too happy to help you swap it into play if you don’t have another option handy, and it’s the open ended synergy of that play sequence that has me seeing $$$ down the road. This card is going be a slow gainer out of the gate, but the second it posts up some interesting Top 8s in Modern, it’s going to explode and you’re going to want to be holding copies.

Current Price: $6
Target Entry: $6
Target Exit: $15+ (18 months)

Current Price: $5
Target Entry: $5
Target Exit: $15+ (18 months)

#3 Urza, Lord High Artificer: Doomed to Overachieve?

Urza, Lord High Artificer

If there is one mythic card in this set that rang the power level bell for most players in Modern Horizons, it was Urza, Lord High Artificer. Putting aside the solid art and fantastic flavor and we’re left with a 4-drop of such a ridiculous power level that Commander decks built around it will almost certainly need to be intentionally de-tuned to allow you to avoid getting the boot from your playgroup. A pile of cards have already spiked on the back of this reveal, including Paradox Engine, Unwinding Clock and Thran Turbine.

This card peaked near $70 during early pre-orders, but has since collapsed back to a still lofty $40-50 range, a price that doesn’t really leave much meat on the bone.

I think your ideal play here is for Urza to not start putting up Modern results for a while, allowing Commander players to bite off their single copies and then allow the price to settle back into the $20-30 range. If it gets down to $14-22 I’ll start paying attention. Anything higher and the upside just isn’t juicy enough.

Likewise, foils are going to start very, very high, and retrace only 30-40% as peak supply rolls through. If a great Modern deck emerges early on that makes use of multiple copies, you may never get a shot at grabbing more than your personal playset at a reasonable price.

Current Price: $40+
Target Entry: $20-25
Target Exit: $40+ (18 months)

#4 Ranger-Captain of Eos, Seasoned Pyromancer & Wrenn and Six : Mythic MVPs in the Making?

Ok, so in looking over the rest of the mythics from Modern Horizons, these are the ones that stand out as being a) pushed, b) most likely to be played in multiples and c) capable of seeing play in both Modern and other formats.

Ranger-Captain of Eos only searches up a single creature vs. the two from Ranger of Eos, but it also provides some potential disruption as a bonus and you get that package for a mana less, which matters a lot in Modern. Just off the top, searching up a Death’s Shadow, Given of Runes, Walking Ballista, Thraben Inspector or Noble Hierarch seems like solid value. The thing is, Modern has not been very kind to fair decks in recent times and we didn’t really get the kind of disruption or sideboard options in this set that seem likely to push the meta back to the fair (a couple of great new counterspells not withstanding). The good captain can currently be had in the $10-15 range, but I don’t intend to acquire many until I see it doing work on camera deep into a big Modern tourney.

Current Price: $10-12
Target Entry: $6-8
Target Exit: $15+ (18 months)

Seasoned Pyromancer has already shown up in some SCGLive brews this week and while it didn’t blow me away on camera thus far, there may be something here at some point. A 2/2 body for 1RR is almost embarassing in Modern at this point, but the double discard/draw ability has real potential to do work, especially when it can also end up adding 3 bodies to the board only to do it again down the road in the rare long game. Keep in mind that they also just gave us Unearth to attempt to abuse in Modern, so there are more than a few interesting angles to attempt here. Ultimately we need to know whether the card can a) find a semi-permanent home in at least a T1.5 deck and b) how many copies they want to run. I’m adding this to my wait and see list.

Current Price: $10
Target Entry: $6-8
Target Exit: $15+ (18 months)

Wrenn & Six analysis starts with the simple fact that this is a 2-mana Planeswalker built around recursing lands in a set theme that seemed determined to push a deck of that style into Modern. Not only do we have 6 new sac ready lands in the format thanks to MH1, but they also gave us back the full cycle of Onslaught single mana cycling lands, Tectonic Reformation, Ruination Rioter, and we’ve already got Seismic Assault and Life from the Loam. And don’t forget about creature lands, Field of Ruin, Ghost Quarter and Tectonic Edge. It may all very well add up to a pile of Jank, but I won’t at all be surprised to see Wrenn & Six post some MTGO 5-0 leagues at some point in the near future. If you like this spec, cross your fingers that Sam Black and Zak Elsik take their time figuring out the build so that this card collapses under $15 and sets up a reasonable spec. There is just as much reason to play this card in Commander, so foil price weakness will likely be a buy during peak supply.

Current Price: $25
Target Entry: $10-14
Target Exit: $20+ (18 months)

Mythic Side Notes: Echo of Eons ($30-40) is the mythic I most want to see be insane and with Narset, Parter of Veils, Teferi, Time Raveler and Day’s Undoing you can clearly do the thing. A Timetwister you can flash back for the original P9 casting cost is no joke, and the art IS great, but keep your eyes on Conley Woods steam to see how real the card is later this month. Hexdrinker ($10-15) is a card that is likely to end up a 4-of if it finds a deck that wants an evolving half-hexproof beat stick, but I’m benching the spec until I see results. Kess, Dissident Mage ($10-15) is very likely to do some work in a Grixis control shell, but it will likely be as a one or two of, so no rush on moving in.

#5 Aria of Flame: Ready to Catch Fire?

Aria of Flame

A lot of players likely looked once at this card and dismissed it immediately. I mean, why would Burn oriented decks want to give their opponents half their life total back?

Let’s do some quick math. You play the card, and it does nothing but set you back -10 on your goal of killing your opponent. And if the card could have been a lightning bolt, you are actually back -13 and a couple of mana.

The next several spells you cast, play out as follows:
+1 damage
+2 damage
+3 damage
+4 damage
+5 damage

By the time you have cast five more spells, you have now gone net positive on the damage race, at +2 damage. The sixth or 7th spells likely kill your opponent, as they add 13 damage to the mix. That seems like a lot of set up and not at all what a Burn deck wants to do but Todd Anderson of SCG Tour fame has theorized that it might be what an Arclight Phoenix deck wants to do instead of Pyromancer’s Ascension as the backup kill plan. The mono-red version of Phoenix now has access to Lava Dart, each copy of which now represents two spells toward your goal. They also run 3-4 copies each of Desperate Ritual, Gut Shot, Manamorphose, Faithless Looting and a couple of Tormenting Voice. The UR versions of the deck run similar spells but add Serum Visions and Sleight of Hand into the mix. Storm decks might also find reason to lean on Aria for their end game.

In Commander, there are actually a LOT of ways for you to abuse the Aria triggers and giving the board a pile of life might not matter if they give you enough time to really go to town.

Aria of Flame is currently pre-ordering from some North American vendors at $1, and in the EU copies are under $.75. I like picking up this card under $1 to target a 1-2 year exit closer to $3-4.

Current Price: $1
Target Entry: <$1
Target Exit: $5 (18+ months)

#6 Archmage’s Charm & Force of Negation: Counter-Intuitive?

If you had suggested, we would be getting not one but two new strong counterspells at rare in Modern Horizons, I would have thought that pretty odd, but here we are.

Both of these cards are very likely to see significant play in the format, as they both provide a lot of utility to the decks that can cast them. The UUU cost on Archmage’s Charm is the biggest limiter on how widespread its’ usage pattern will become, since only U/W Control decks and possibly Mono Blue Tron builds with Urza are likely to be able to easily support the color requirements. That said, if you have correct mana, the ability to outright counter a spell or draw cards at the end of your opponent’s turn is pretty great. The third mode is being underrated by some players, as it can steal a long list of prevalent targets including Death’s Shadow, Noble Hierarch, Aether Vial, Goblin Guide, Monastery Swiftspear. In Commander you’ll have the option of stealing Sol Ring, Mana Crypt, Mana Vault and a whole bunch of other nasty little cards.

Archmage’s Charm is currently pre-ordering around $12, and I’d love to see it come down closer to $6-8 during peak supply, looking to out it over $12 within 18 months.

Current Price: $12
Target Entry: $6-8
Target Exit: $12+ (18 months)

As the supposed fixed version of Force of Will for Modern, Force of Negation is riding higher on hype, and has a lot to live up to with pre-order prices close to $25. I don’t want any part of that price tag, but if I see copies under $15 I will start to get interested.

The need to be pitching blue spells to make it work is real, but there are enough blue decks in the format and enough combos that need to be stopped on your opponent’s turn that this card is likely to see constant play for years, even if mostly out of the sideboard.

Current Price: $25
Target Entry: $15
Target Exit: $25+ (18 months)

#7 Planebound Apprentice: Bogus Until Broken?

Planebound Accomplice

Here we have a card with no immediately obvious home but a ridiculously high power level should the right partner cards present themselves. The easiest way to evaluate Planebound Accomplice is probably to compare it to Sneak Attack, a card that has been doing busted things with creatures in a similar way for years. The Accomplice actually costs one less to get rolling, is more fragile as a creature than an enchantment, but should still be able to get off an activation assuming you have four mana available the turn you cast it.

Thing is, there are a LOT more options in the creature type than in the planeswalker type that are capable of doing really busted things when you get to activate them early. Even still, folks have already tossed around infinite combos involving two planeswalkers and Cloudstone Curio. In researching this article, I also found the following cute combo, which also works with Progenitus, Hornet Queen or Terastodon depending on your needs. Liliana, Death’s Majesty can bring a creature back from the yard, Liliana, Dreadhorde General forces folks to sac two creatures and Nicol Bolas, Dragon-God can double up on whatever jank you’re up to since he copies all planeswalker abilities. The other Bolas walkers are all equally charming when they show up early. Nissa, Vital Force brought in for R can bring back another previously used Walker (or perhaps Cloudstone Curio) to hand and let you go again. Ugin, the Spirit Dragon lets you sweep the board or colored permanents.

Jamming all of that into a deck is likely to amount to little more than a pile of FNM jank, but it’s only a matter of time before something more concrete coalesces around Planebound Accomplice and sends it into a price spike. I’ve already snapped up 100+ copies of the card in Europe for under $1, and my target out will be $5 or so within two years.

Current Price: $2.50
Target Entry: $1-$2
Target Exit: $5 (18 months)

#8 Prismatic Vista – Straight Forward, Not Flashy

Prismatic Vista

Ah yes, the new fetchland for basics, including snow basics and Wastes. These are going to be a big part of mana bases in multiple formats for years, including Modern and Commander, as they let you find the right basic on schedule while providing very minor deck thinning. That’s enough to make them attractive buys but $20-25 pre-order pricing is not where we want to enter on these.

Peak supply should push playsets down toward $40-50 at which point I’d be more interested in moving in. Foils are also likely to be solid targets, but I’d really like to see them down closer to $20 before moving in.

Current Price: $20-$25
Target Entry: $10-12
Target Exit: $20+ (18 months)

#9 Morophon the Boundless: Open Ended Tribal Lord

Morophon, the Boundless

Morophon, the Boundless is never going to be a thing in Modern, and Commander players are only likely to need the single copy, but when these get low enough I’ll be looking to scoop some, mostly in foil. Most of the time targeting Commanders isn’t really the play, as the cards the Commander needs that are in short supply often do much better as specs. In this case however, Morophon isn’t aimed at one tribe, but as many of them as can profitably make use of the mana cost reduction and want to run under a 5 color banner to make use of all of their options. This will tend to matter more for multi-color builds and tribes with big mana costs in multiple colors, so your options ARE narrowed somewhat, but over time more and more options will appear. I could see Morophon ending up as one of the Top 30 commanders of all time, but my play here will likely be shallow in case it’s just a passing fad.

Current Price: $18-20
Target Entry: $10-14
Target Exit: $25+ (18 months)

#10 Unbound Flourishing: Doubling Down on Doubling?

Unbound Flourishing

Once upon a time a little card called Doubling Season became one of the more important casual and Commander cards around and made folks a bunch of money. Now Wizards is handing us a new 2G enchantment in a similar vein but with a significantly more narrow sphere of activity. In Unbound Flourishing we find ourselves looking around for permanents, instants and sorceries with X in their casting costs or abilities, and our options are definitely more limited than they are with counters and tokens. That said, the synergy here IS open ended so as time goes on we are likely to eventually reach a preponderance of synergy. The odds of action are better in Commander than in Modern at present, but this card is still commanding a high pre-order price of $20+. At this price I’m on the sidelines. Wake me up when this drops under $10 and we can talk but it still doesn’t likely to become a priority spec unless it gets closer to $5.

Current Price: $20+
Target Entry: <$10
Target Exit: $15+ (36 months)

#11 Crashing Footfalls: Free Rhinos Anyone?

Crashing Footfalls

Ok, so clearly no one is interested in actually suspending this card. No, here we have yet another spell set up to be abused with As Foretold or Bloodbraid Elf. No one really seems excited about this card, partially because the Rhinos don’t have haste. It seems a bit crazy to me that 8/8 trample spread across two bodies isn’t good enough on T2 in Modern, but I’m happy to bow to the likely superior group think and ignore this card for now. If it shows up in a tasty list somewhere or a new combo piece gets printed we can certainly reevaluate.

Current Price: $3
Target Entry: <$2
Target Exit: $10+ (36 months)

#12 Marit Lage’s Slumber: When Shall the Snowflakes Wake?

Marit Lage's Slumber

Let’s state the obvious: the snow theme in Modern Horizons feels incomplete. We got some very interesting puzzle pieces here, but they don’t all add up to a great deck yet. Many of us were expecting the snow theme payoff to include snow duals, which would have made cards like Marit Lage’s Slumber a bit more likely to succeed, but no such look…so far.

Part of me is now wondering whether this whole theme is just the setup for a forthcoming Ice Age style set on a new plane, perhaps Kaldheim and a Norse mythology themed set within the next couple of years. In the absence of such an event, I’m not excited to go deep on the more powerful of the snow cards including On Thin Ice and Dead of Winter.

Marit Lage’s Slumber is $3 but I’ll get more interested when it’s down closer to $1.

Current Price: $3
Target Entry: <$1
Target Exit: $10+ (36 months)

#13 Tectonic Reformation: Seismic Successor?

Tectonic Reformation

This card is really strong. In Commander it gives red decks and Boros decks significantly more protection from flooding out, and in the lands matters decks like Windgrace and The Gitrog Monster, it will do a ton of work. In Modern there are also a ton of puzzle pieces to place alongside this that may yield a deck, but we’re not there yet. The fact that you can cycle extra copies if they aren’t necessary may lead to running a higher # of copies. This could take a short or a long while to get there but the unique impact means that at minimum I’ll be looking to grab some cheap foils during peak supply.

Current Price: $4.50
Target Entry: <$3
Target Exit: $10+ (36 months)

Final Thoughts: Nice Commander Foils To Target During Peak Supply

All of these cards will have foils that will end up draining out of the market given enough time. The Commanders in this list also happen to fit into the 99 of other commanders, so their demand profile will be better than the average Commander option. Hall of Generosity foils are Volrath’s Stronghold/Academy Ruins for enchantments, so the long term prospects are very strong given likelihood of the effect on a land remaining unique for a long time. All of the new Talismans will also be worth snapping up in foil at their lows.

What are you thinking about Modern Horizons? Do you have pet specs that I missed here? What is your thesis? Until next time!

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy art fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.