There are a LOT of reprints in Commander 2016 and I’m not going to cover them all. However, there are quite a few that I think are worth discussing either because their value will decline more than you might think or because the value is likely to recover. This is a pile of weird Conspiracy exclusions and busted specs. Let’s do this by color because that’s how the WotC visual spoiler is organized and you’re not my supervisor.
Blind Obedience
This was experiencing some pretty modest growth and I liked it long-term. Not anymore, though. I think I may have underestimated the reprint risk a bit by even mentioning this in the past. They have printed so many cards that do what this does, minus the extort so I thought they forgot about it. This won’t recover.
Cathar’s Crusade
They are just going to reprint this forever. Since it was never old in the first place, there are infinity copies of this card. Stay away.
Ghostly Prison
This was doomed from the moment they banned Splinter Twin. It was a $5 EDH card that became a $20 Modern card. Now that this just an EDH card again, it will be hard-pressed to be $5 in the near future with this new reprint. I think long-term this is a loser, despite being very good. It may grow, but not enough to bother. This is a trap.
Reveillark
This shrugged off a Modern Masters reprinting. I think we’re going to see that there is a big difference between a Modern Masters reprinting and a Commander one. I think this will either not recover, will recover more anemically or will take longer. I wouldn’t bank on this being $9 anytime soon no matter what happens.
Master of Etherium
This HAS shrugged off Commander-sized reprints, though. Planechase was as big as the first Commander set, which, admittedly, wasn’t on the same scale as C16 is. It also saw a duel deck printing in the interim, though. This will dip but I bet Modern demand drives it right back up. If this his $4 or something absurd, and it might, buy in. Since this is in a deck with Solemn Simulacrum, Daretti (Man….) Hellkite Tyrant and Baleful Strix as well as a bunch of new cards, there isn’t much pressure on Master to be worth more than $4 or $5 and that means opportunity. Modern just eats copies of this card and EDH demand doesn’t help. I think there is opportunity here.
Army of the Damned
The only question here is whether dumb-dumb speculation about Innistrad returning is the only reason this recovered from the Commander 2013 reprinting. I don’t think so given the shape of the graph. This may be able to shake off this printing, too. Worst case scenario, you have a card that won’t stay in a binder long.
Beacon of Unrest
None of these fluctuations are due to reprints, this is all the card just being a card. I think this probably normalizes a buck lower than it is now at minimum. I know this appears like it’s shrugged off reprints before, but I think if this were just a fifth dawn card, it would be $15 by now but the reality is that there are a lot of copies out there and this doesn’t help.
Breath of Fury
There are like a dozen Relentless Assault effects that spiked because of Narset so they reprint the only one that is a bulk rare.
Kalonian Hydra
I was asked to address this in the comments section. I initially obviously looked at this card because it is a hydra and it doubles stuff and what’s more EDH than that? However, I think the growth on this card has been kind of anemic. True it has doubled since it rotated out of standard and that is pretty substantial, I also think that we’re going to get a ton of copies dumped on us. I’m sure this card will recover, but I think it’s going to go to $3 or $4 from its current $12 and it will never be $12 again. So where will it end up? I could see this being $6-$8 in a year or two, so if that’s acceptable, I guess you could buy in, but I mostly think there are better finance targets. I’ll admit I should have mentioned this card before, but I was pretty dismissive once I saw the slope of its graph and for whatever reason I didn’t think this needed to be mentioned. That said, at the end of this article I sort of conclude “Everything else I mentioned probably won’t recover” which isn’t true of this card at all. There is decent reprint risk in commander 2017 or 2018 but if this isn’t reprinted it could be decent. Get these for trade, not cash is my suggestion.
Lurking Predators
M10 cards are pretty old. If they were kids, they would have started first grade last month. When I see an M10 card go from $2 to $5 over the course of 6 years, no matter how good it is, I am not enthusiastic about it growing at that rate again with a bunch of new copies being dumped. It will probably be half that growth rate, or 3/4 of it. If you’re happy paying $2 for Lurking Predators and waiting until 2024 for it to be $5, go for it, but I think the rate is too slow for me. I’m glad this will be cheap so it can go in more decks but I’m not excited to buy in.
Oath of Druids
People are really surprised by this, mostly because a lot of people thought this was banned in EDH, on the Reserved List, or both. It’s neither. Also, it’s not played enough in EDH for its price to be sheltered at all and it’s about to be a $2 card forever because basically Vintage plays this. Also, Oath of Ghouls is on the Reserved List and this isn’t. K.
Scavenging Ooze
This is nothing if not an indication that they will print this card as many times as necessary. I like the idea of these being $2 for a minute, but I don’t know if this can recover as vigorously as in the past. I think this would have to get lower than it’s likely to for me to want to buy in.
Chromatic Lantern
This is only in one deck. which attenuates the impact of the reprint somewhat. I think if this gets down to like $3, you buy in. This will go back up, and with a 4 or 5 color deck being unlikely next year, it should be relatively safe from reprint for a while and should recover a lot of value. Also, the omission of Coalition Relic gives that card some real upside.
Venser’s Journal
This needed it. I used to buy these for like $0.50 from competitive players who just wanted bulk out of their binders and I’m excited to have a second crack at making money off of these. These might never be $6 again, but they’ll normalize above where they’re about to go.
Homeward Path
I was surprised how little this dipped and how fast it recovered last time it was reprinted. I don’t think it getting reprinted every two years can lead to a situation where it can sustainably recover. I think this may be done.
I think the rest of the reprints in the set are going to be obvious. The prices will go down because there is more supply and the cards that were artifically being propped up like Ghostly Prison will tank more and won’t recover. I will re-evaluate these cards in the months to come but for the most part, everything I didn’t think was obvious to everyone is in here. Is there a card you’d like me to discuss? Leave it in the comments section and I can update the article. Thanks for reading, and have a great weekend.
Great Article, thank you!
I’m mostly interested in Ghave. It has only one other printing (in Commander), but I’m not really sure how many people actually play [him]. Could this reprint lead to more people trying to build around him (maybe even with the cards provided in the deck) or will this simply crush the value?
It’s going to crush his value. New availability won’t generate enough demand to soak up all the new copies.
I play Ghave as my commander and until I did research I didn’t know he existed and in my search for s copy ran into the fact almost nobody knew what this card was and still its about s $7 can card I hope it gains interest so the reprinting doesn’t turn this into s bulk card.
Lurking predators? A very popular and strong card from m10 that many new players have limited access to.
Kalonian Hydra? Playing with counters is something alot of people like to do it seems.
I feel like these will drop obviously but their continued popularity I would think would allow them to recover.
I agree with Lurking Predators. I didn’t even know the card existed until I was looking for ways to help with Karametra and Xenagos devotion while cheating creatures into play. I found Lurking Predators. I was extremely tempted to buy into speculative copies of this card about a year ago, but I’m glad I waited. (Keep in mind this might mean there is already pent up demand.)
With that said… Now that this card will be on EVERY new player’s radar and cheating multi-colored fatties into play is always fun… I think this card might have increased demand now simply due to increased visibility/availability. Who knows… maybe there is actual upside on Foils if/when people decide to foil out their commander decks.
I’m basically looking at Lurking Predators like this: FOILS are now completely safe from reprint. I don’t agree with Jason that non-foils will drop to $2, I think they are more likely to stay around $4-$5(SCG currently sold out of M11 at $6!) . We are in a new environment in Commander where the power creep is centered around Creatures, meaning anything that cheats them into play is that much better down the road. I already have it in 2 decks and I’m about to put it into a 3rd. Do I want to constantly switch my single copy out/in… Or will many Commander players opt to just own a full playset of these and run them in multiple decks like they already do with their Artifacts/Lands. (this is why Sol Ring is never under $1)
I must admit that Lurking Predators looks much better on the board next to Karametra and Sterling Grove (hexproof), but I still think it could go into many more decks. I love it in Xenagos, its hilarious when something like a Dragonlord Atarka slams down on your opponents extra turns while they are searching for answers/plays. Once they are finally able to deal with Lurking Predators and your massive board and are tapped out… You still have Tooth and Nail in hand to ruin their day! GG!
CFB Pre Orders $3 for Lurking Predators. I think this goes right back up to $5-$6 WAY before 2024… hahahaha. Try 2018-2019?. Think how many Timmy/Johnnies are buying into Commander as we speak?
Its just like Jason to call a good spec at $2 and then say its way too safe, slow and steady and then not buy into his own spec. Take his advice and BUY these for $2 if you can. I guess $3 is attractive for personal copies, but I’ll pass on speculating at that price.
Jason, I’d love to get your take on the best cards to add to the decks. I saved quite a bit of money buying in early to the add-in cards for last year’s decks, and want to try that again. Any recommendations?
I think EDHREC is a good resource to see what other people are running. I’m going to do a few of the more popular decks over the coming weeks to talk about what should go in the decks.
I’m semi familiar with price dynamics when it comes to pre sale of new cards, but how about reprints? In general do you think it’s better to wait to buy most cards until right after they’re released and the market is somewhat flooded with the opening? Is it like the pricing of new cards, only in a smaller scale? It seems like a small window of opportunity. I suppose I’m trying to decide what’s worth preordering, if anything.