I wrote an article last week and this article is part two of that article. I want to jump in and continue but that’s a pretty abrupt jump for some people. If you’re not ready to go from 0-60 in a few seconds, take a second to re-read the article from last week, get back into the thought process we were previously in and hit this one running because the transition from preamble paragraph to the body of the piece is going to be
The Rest of the Reprints
Nirkana Revenant – Class 2
Last night on Brainstorm Brewery, Corbin talked about how the graph of this wasn’t very promising and I guess he’s looking at a different graph than I am. All I see is the buy price about to converge with the retail price, which means a correction would have happened if the reprint hadn’t been announced and I see high dealer confidence in a card whose price has steadily increased for years. If you look at a very similar card, a card I won’t shut up about, you’ll see the effect of a reprint.
Ghast recovered nicely. It doesn’t hurt that Ghast is in 4 times as many decks as Revenant on EDHREC but there are several factors at play there. First is that Ghast is cheaper mana-wise. Second is that Ghast is cheaper money-wise and Revnant may have been previously priced out of collections. Thirdly, Ghast was in a precon so of course it’s going to be in more lists. More people have them and more people succumb to the precon effect and leave cards in the precons when they rebuild them if they’re good enough not to take out. Revenant will likely recover a lot of its value and I think we’ll see a nice, U-shaped graph similar to the one we see with Crypt Ghast, especially with a cheap price on Revenant enfranchising people that may have been priced out before.
War’s Toll – Class 1
This is a good card but it suffers from the fact that most of its growth was very recent as was more than likely predicated on scarcity. We have $4 booster packs with Doubling Season and Land Tax in them and people are going to want to draft these packs a lot. This set will dump a ton of War’s Tolls onto the market. This will tank to bulk and while it may recover, it will likely take a long time. This is in a mere 1,800 decks on EDHREC and that demand isn’t robust enough to cope with the coming influx. Some stuff will never recover and I think this is one of those cards. It likely creeps to $2 in a few years but we have so much time to see that coming, why do anything besides maybe set them aside when you buy them as bulk rares?
Angelic Chorus – Class 1
This is a White War’s Toll. It’s an old card in under 2,000 decks on EDHREC that sneakily crept to like $5 and mostly stayed there. This demand curve is much flatter than that of War’s Toll and it’s in closer to 1,000 decks than it is to 2,000 decks. Everything that happens to War’s Toll will happen to this to a lesser extent and that’s being charitable. The low demand and price predicated on scarcity can’t cope with the coming influx of copies. This is pre-selling for $1.87 and that’s too high.
Mystic Confluence – Class 1
Flat Demand is a bad sign for a card getting a reprint. This is going to tank, probably to $2 or $3 and it probably stays wherever it ends up. This is in 8,000 EDHREC decks, but that number is juiced by the precon effect and its demand curve is basically flat. I think we’re about to get inundated with copies and I bet this takes 3 years to even flirt with $4, meanwhile a ton of other cards in the set are much better looking.
Nyxathid – Class 1
I don’t know which format is propping this up, but it isn’t EDH. This is in like 200 decks. I suspect this is a casual card and I have no idea how to predict what casual demand can do for this card, but I suspect a ton of supply dumped on the market being sniped one at a time by casual players who still buy boosters hoping to get individual cards like I did when I was 12 isn’t getting soaked up anytime soon.
Magmatic Force – Class 1
This card has very little demand and I suspect the price is predicated on scarcity since it’s from the original Commander set from 2011. 1,200 decks on EDHREC can’t really soak up these coming copies, especially since a lot of those decks are old decks like Rakdos, Lord of Riots and Horde of Notions. Newer decks don’t seem interested.
Noosegraf Mob – Class 1
Once a bulk rare, always a bulk rare.
Goblin Razrunners – Class 1
See “Noosegraf Mob”
Greater Good – Class 1.5
I think this has a pretty robust demand profile and I feel like the cheap copies will enfranchise some people who didn’t have access to a $10 card and will encourage them to build with it. Demand for this card was sort of flat but bumped and plateaued every time a new, hot commander was printed for it. Selvala, Angry Omnath. I think this recovers but I think it will take an impetus rather than the modest 6,900 decks it’s in. I think you snag these as cheap as you can, use them to shore up trades that are off by a buck or two and throw these in a box until they’re magically $6 apiece, which I think can happen. It’s Class 1.5 because I think it will get there but unlike Class 1 cards, it won’t get there on its own.
Kor Spiritdancer – Class 1
This card is likely toast. It’s like $5 after its precipitous decline (can a decline be precipitous? Yeah, I just looked it up and it can.) from bogles wanting it briefly in Modern and while it was showing signs of recovering slightly, I think the Modern demand drying up coupled with its very modest (1,671 decks on the ‘REC) EDH demand spells bulk status for this for a while and a pretty slow climb afterward.
Tidespout Tyrant – Class 1
Be honest – you had no idea this card was $8. It was something I noticed but never really found an excuse to talk about despite really liking it (and sometimes confusing it with Roil Elemental, which I like a lot more and you know why if you read my 75% series on Gathering Magic). This is a solid card and the fact that a lot of its demand seems recent makes me think the price is predicated on scarcity. I think this is similar to War’s Toll and I will only change my belief if this doesn’t tank as hard as Toll does. Why shouldn’t it? It has the same graph shape, it has the same tepid EDH demand and it is just as old. This does exactly what Toll does and its higher pre-sale price is puzzling but I think it will all shake out.
Magus of the Candelabra – Class 1
R.I.P. bulk rare
Mangara of Corondor – Class1*
*This card is toast, but the only caveat is that the Battlebond version has the new Legendary card border and it’s possible that foils of this could displace the older foils, not that anyone is trifling with Mangara combo these days. They SHOULD. Everyone talked about how Eternal and Iconic Masters made it possible to build Legacy Death and Taxes and if you run D&T without the iconic Mangara combo with the Karakas you just got from a booster, you’re doing it wrong. Mangara is included in 1,100 decks or so and there are 67 built around the card. That said, I think I might want to try a Mangara deck with a ton of ways to tutor for Helm of the Host and just make the slowest walking Vindicates ever. That doesn’t make this a better buy.
Sower of Temptation – Class 1
I hate to admit it, but this card’s goose might be cooked. I really didn’t think so just as a gut feeling when I saw Sower on the reprint list – I thought this was a good place to park money and it still feels wrong to classify this as class 1 but I literally can’t think of a reason not to based on the data. This is in a mere 2,300 decks on EDHREC, its Legacy demand is dwindling, its price is way down and it’s pre-selling for $3. This is going to tank hard and I don’t see a ton of impetus for this to go way back up. Like Greater Good, if this does go up, it won’t be based on current conditions, it will be based on something happening to change its current circumstances. If I had written about this last week, I would likely have classified it as a class 1 card without thinking, but I think this is likely about to take a beating.
Seedborn Muse – Class 2
This is in 12,000 EDHREC decks and with every new, busted Simic deck that’s possible, the need for these goes up. This is pre-selling for $14 on Card Kingdom which seems high but also indicates they’re aware that this won’t be down for long. For whatever reason, people weren’t playing this half as much before they got to play with Prophet of Kruphix for a few months but now that everyone seems to have gotten the message, they’re using this card, for better or worse. This likely goes to $7 or $8, maybe even lower given that it’s printed as a non-mythic, but this recovers a lot of value and you’re just going to stack cash buying these at the floor.
Apocalypse Hydra – Class 1
Modern Masters 2015 kicked the chair out from under this card and Battleborn will kick it in the throat before we even get a chance to see if it was going to be able to get back on its feet.
Evil Twin – Class 1
Bulk is bulk
Gwafa Hazid, Profiteer – Class 1
What I said about Mangara may be true of this – people may want the foil in the new border but that doesn’t really do much for a card with such little demand as a commander.
Mycosynth Lattice – Class 2
Pre-selling for $12, this cut in half already but there’s good news. It’s reprinted in Battlebond as a Mythic, which means it’s not going to get quite the pantsing some other cards are. Secondly, it’s used in over 5,000 decks on EDHREC and a lot of those are recent given the printings of Breya and Jhoira et al recently. It’s a very good combo piece and its price graph shows pretty decent, sustained growth just on the back of being a very useful card and artifacts mattering in EDH basically the entire time there has been a format. This likely doesn’t shrug the reprint off per se but I bet the additional supply won’t do too much to attenuate this card’s growth, which should resume as soon as people start drafting whatever we’re going to draft after Battlebond.
Mind’s Eye – Class 1.5
This strikes me as a card like Duplicant or Solemn Simulacrum – we keep playing them without really ever asking ourselves why. These cards have always been played. They got masterpiece printings. They must be format staples. This is the 81st-most-played colorless card on EDHREC but I have a feeling that it’s on its way down in the rankings. Purely based on data, I don’t think the price growth is robust enough nor the demand (8,500 decks) strong enough to classify this as class 1. Regardless of what I think about its future, more copies getting into more hands and at the cheap rate of a $5 preorder that will almost certainly be too high isn’t going to bring its adoption down. I think this grows less than the juicier targets but I bet this does something.
That does it for this set. I think I at least made a data-based case for my picks but if you disagree on anything, let me know in the comments section. That does it for me – until next time!
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